The Citadel 78, VMI 75: a few quick thoughts

Posted on January 31, 2016 by Sandlapper Spike

Links of interest:

– Game story, The Post and Courier

– Photo gallery, The Post and Courier

– Video from WCSC-TV, including Duggar Baucom’s postgame thoughts, along with those of Derrick Henry and P.J. Boutte

– Video from WCIV-TV

– Box score

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Very random observations:

– The Citadel had 77 possessions in the game, below its average of 82 per contest. This didn’t have as much to do with actual pace (the game was more than frenetic enough from the Bulldogs’ perspective), but instead was a result of VMI gathering 21 offensive rebounds. The Keydets kept many possessions alive with their work on the boards.

VMI had an offensive rebound rate of 44.7%. The Citadel was very fortunate to win on Saturday while allowing such a rate, especially given that the Bulldogs did not shoot well either (36.2%, including only making 9 of 38 three-point attempts).

– The reason The Citadel came back and won? Turnovers. The Bulldogs forced 20 of them while only committing 11 of their own. That is a significant differential. A lot of VMI’s turnovers were of the “live ball” variety, too, which increased the chances of The Citadel converting those miscues into points. The Bulldogs had a 17-7 edge in points off turnovers.

– Considering VMI’s dominance on the offensive glass, it is borderline amazing that The Citadel had a 19-18 edge in second-chance points. The Keydets missed a lot of opportunities to convert second-chance points, particularly in the first half.

– One thing about the Bulldogs, they may occasionally struggle shooting from beyond the arc, but they’re still going to fire away from outside. Ten different players attempted at least one three-pointer on Saturday.

– I thought the atmosphere at McAlister Field House was really good on Saturday. There wasn’t a large contingent of cadets in attendance, but those there made their presence felt. I noticed a sizable number of football players cheering on their hardwood compatriots, and the baseball team also made an appearance.

The pep band was in very good form. I also thought that, in general (and unlike games at Johnson Hagood Stadium), the band worked well with the in-house DJ. His music selection was solid.

I’m not sure, but I think near the end of the game he played a snippet of “Magic” by Pilot, which would be a case of going deep into the playbook…

– I also enjoyed the halftime activities. First, the “Blitz Kids” were honored with a new banner hanging in the rafters. Seven representatives from that era of Bulldog basketball were at the game. I’ve heard my fair share of stories about those teams.

Then, a local Catholic school had two teams of nine-year-olds (I believe that was the age group) play a quick four-minute fullcourt game. This proved to be a highly entertaining affair. Both squads featured strong defensive play. Good job, Saints.

– I missed the game that was played afterwards between the hoops alumni and the corps of cadets. It appears the participants were inspired by Duggar Baucom and the “Embrace the Pace” movement, given the final score of the contest was 91-74.

– Whenever someone refers to “SoCon Saturday” in basketball, it is often a less-than-flattering comment about officiating. The league has traditionally struggled to provide quality officials for weekend games, due in large part to having to compete with major conferences on Saturdays (when there are many more games played than on weekdays).

This particular Saturday wasn’t so bad for The Citadel and VMI, though. The officiating wasn’t perfect (as Duggar Baucom pointed out to the men in stripes on more than one occasion), but it was acceptable.

I feel compelled to note that after ripping the league’s officials from time to time (with considerable justification, in my opinion).

Incidentally, it helped to have guys officiating who had actually called plenty of high-level games this season. One of the officials for yesterday’s game was working his 27th D-1 game of the season. While that is a far cry from the national leader in that category (as of January 30, David Hall had worked an incredible 63 D-1 games in 2015-16), it is a sign that an official is good enough to get regular work at that level.

There have been times when The Citadel has played a league game on a Saturday in late January in which the three officials assigned to the contest have not worked 27 D-1 games, combined. That matters.

Another one of the officials from Saturday’s matchup had only worked 14 D-1 games, but I noticed that in addition to calling NCAA contests he was also an NBA D-League official. The other arbiter on hand at McAlister Field House had only refereed 10 D-1 games, but at least he was in double digits.

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I took a few pictures. They aren’t very good. One thing I need to do is concentrate less on action photos (which I’m really bad at taking anyway) and instead focus on things that someone watching on ESPN3 might not be able to see. I’ll try to remember that next time.

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McAlister Musings: nearing the midway point of the SoCon campaign

Posted on January 24, 2016 by Sandlapper Spike

Previous entries in this occasional series:

The Bulldogs begin SoCon play

Time to #EmbraceThePace as the season begins for The Citadel

My post from last April on the hiring of Duggar Baucom

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The Duggar Baucom Show (1/13)

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Games played since my last post:

– The Citadel dropped the league opener, losing 84-78 to Chattanooga. The Bulldogs were in good shape until a horrific stretch that came at a bad time — the last four minutes of the game. Zane Najdawi had 15 points in just 23 minutes of action, while fellow freshman Matt Frierson added 4 three-pointers.

– The Bulldogs played very poorly and lost 94-74 at Samford. Duggar Baucom apologized after the game to “anyone who had to watch that”. Apology accepted.

– A third SoCon game resulted in a third loss, 91-80 to Mercer. For the second game in a row, The Citadel fell way behind early and couldn’t recover. Connor Schroeder was a bright spot, making 4 three-pointers en route to a 14-point, 6-rebound afternoon.

– The Citadel lost 86-83 to Wofford to drop to 0-4 in league play. The Bulldogs trailed 72-58 before making a comeback attempt, but ran out of time. Derrick Henry scored 18 of his 20 points in the second half.

– The Bulldogs finally got in the win column in conference action by outlasting Furman, 89-86. Henry and Brian White both scored 16 points for The Citadel; P.J. Boutte added 14 points and 6 assists.

Henry, White, and Boutte were three of thirteen Bulldogs to see action in the contest. One of those thirteen was senior walkon Bobby Duncan, who grabbed two rebounds and had a steal in three minutes on the court.

– The Citadel followed up the victory over the Paladins with another tight win, 92-91 over Western Carolina. Boutte made two free throws with 1.1 seconds remaining to provide the margin of victory for the Bulldogs. Quinton Marshall had 18 points and 5 rebounds.

– In the Bulldogs’ most recent outing, they lost 101-92 in overtime at East Tennessee State in a game that was there for the taking. Quayson Williams shot the ball very well (10-15 FG, including 7 three-pointers) and finished with 29 points, while Warren Sledge just missed on a double-double (12 points, 9 rebounds).

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In my previous post, I mentioned some things that The Citadel had done well to that point in the season, and some other things the Bulldogs had not done well. Let’s see how the team is faring in SoCon play in those respective categories:

– The Citadel had an effective FG rate of 52.2% entering SoCon play; in six league games, the Bulldogs have an eFG of 50.6% (eighth in the conference)

– The Bulldogs’ free throw shooting in SoCon action is 72.4%, which is fourth-best in the league, but actually lower than what it was in the non-conference portion of the season (76.5%)

– 2-point FG%: from 57.1% (which at the time was 12th-best in the country) to 49.8% (which is only 8th-best in league play)

– The Citadel’s turnover rate (18.0%) remains acceptable, and is actually third-best in the conference

– Defensive efficiency is still a major weakness for the Bulldogs, though there are actually two teams worse in the category in league play (UNC-Greensboro and VMI)

– The offensive rebounding is still poor (last in the league), and the defensive rebounding isn’t much better (next-to-last). However, the Bulldogs outrebounded two of their last three opponents (and not so coincidentally, won both of those games).

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One of the things that has struck me while watching the Bulldogs play is that, while The Citadel remains the national leader in adjusted (and raw) tempo, it really hasn’t had a true “afterburners” series of games. Indeed, in conference play the Bulldogs have played four games with 80 possessions or less, and three with more than 80.

To be honest, I was hoping that The Citadel’s pace of play this season would be even faster. I recall watching Loyola Marymount games in the Paul Westhead era when the contest got so sped up that there were stretches of action that suddenly seemed to be occurring in slow motion, as counter-intuitive as that sounds.

That kind of hardwood commotion would require games that exceed 90 possessions on a routine basis. The Bulldogs have played only two games versus D-1 opposition this season that resulted in 90+ possessions in regulation.

The fact that both of those matchups were blowout losses (against Butler and Charlotte) probably explains why The Citadel is averaging about 82 possessions per contest instead of 90. Duggar Baucom doesn’t yet have the full complement of players needed to go at that speed.

The Citadel is actually only fourth in the nation in fewest seconds per offensive possession (behind Green Bay, Washington, and Marshall; each of those three schools is in the top 5 in adjusted and raw tempo). The Bulldogs are first in fewest seconds per defensive possession, however.

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The Bulldogs have two upcoming home games, against UNC-Greensboro (Thursday, January 28) and VMI (Saturday, January 30).

The game against the Keydets (1 pm tip) will be a “Pack the Mac” affair. The full corps of cadets is expected to be in attendance (as opposed to the Stetson game in December). That should be a fun atmosphere.

Once The Citadel has finished this two-game homestand, the league season will be half over. The Bulldogs will begin the second part of the SoCon campaign at Chattanooga on Monday, February 1.

The team has been competitive in most of its league games, which is encouraging. Now it just needs to start winning a higher percentage of them.

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McAlister Musings: SoCon play begins for The Citadel

Posted on January 1, 2016 by Sandlapper Spike

Previous entries in this (sort of) series:

Time to #EmbraceThePace as the season begins for The Citadel

My post from last April on the hiring of Duggar Baucom

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Links of interest:

The Duggar Baucom Show [December 17 edition]

Game notes for the game versus Chattanooga

Article from Fox Sports on the “Pacemaker”

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The Citadel enters league play with a 7-6 overall record, 4-6 versus Division I competition. The non-conference slate was manageable, for the most part (well, maybe not the Butler game), and that helped in the win-loss department.

It should be noted, however, that the Bulldogs’ four non-conference victories over D1 squads matched the total number of such wins The Citadel had in the previous three seasons — combined.

Two of those triumphs (Bethune-Cookman and USC-Upstate) came on the road, and a third (Georgia Southern) took place at a neutral site. Considering that just two years ago the Bulldogs went an entire season without a road victory, those wins are most welcome, regardless of the level of competition.

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The pace of play has been largely as advertised. The Citadel has an adjusted tempo (per kenpom.com) of 82.5 possessions per game, which currently leads the nation. If that statistic were to hold up over the course of the season, it would be the fastest pace for a Duggar Baucom team since his 2006-07 VMI squad averaged 90.1 possessions (adjusted) per contest. (That Keydet team remains the only D1 outfit since at least 2002 to average more than 90 possessions per game.)

Things the Bulldogs have done well so far this season (stats from the 3 games against non-D1 teams are not included):

  • Effective FG rate: at 52.2%, The Citadel currently ranks 74th nationally (2nd in the SoCon)
  • Free throw shooting: the Bulldogs are shooting 76.5% from the charity stripe, 13th-best in Division I
  • 2-point FG%: The Citadel is 12th nationally in this category (57.1%)
  • Turnover rate: actually, the Bulldogs are perfectly average in turnover rate, but considering how terrible The Citadel has been in turnover prevention in recent seasons, that’s a dramatic improvement

Things the Bulldogs have not done well so far this season:

  • Defensive efficiency, which is 4th-worst in all of Division I; one of the three teams worse than the Bulldogs is Stetson, one of the four D1 teams The Citadel has beaten
  • Reasons for the poor defensive efficiency include: effective FG rate (2nd-worst in D1); 2-point FG% (worst in D1); defensive rebounding (bottom 50 nationally); opponents’ free throw rate (bottom 25 nationally)
  • The offensive rebounding hasn’t been good either (bottom 50 nationally), and neither has the offensive free throw rate (bottom 25 nationally)
  • Somewhat disconcertingly, the Bulldogs have allowed opponents a higher-than-expected steal rate (bottom 100 nationally)

Some of the issues that The Citadel has had were expected. The Bulldogs are collectively one of the shorter teams in Division I, and so rebounding was always going to be a problem. Also, Duggar Baucom’s system does not lend itself to good rebounding numbers in general (particularly on the defensive side of the ball).

The number that sticks out the most as unacceptable, at least to me, is the opponents’ free throw rate.

Regardless of the style of play a team employs, getting to the line matters — and so does preventing the opponent from doing likewise. I can remember watching games on TV involving Indiana, and Billy Packer always having the statistic at the ready that Bob Knight’s Hoosiers would have “made more free throws than their opponents had attempted”.

Well, The Citadel is on the wrong side of that statistic. Against D1 teams, the Bulldogs have attempted 188 free throws, while their opponents have made 213 shots from the foul line.

In other words, the average team The Citadel has played this season has basically gone to the foul line on a per-possession basis as much as the elite IU teams from the 1970s and 1980s. That isn’t good.

It hurts the Bulldogs in another way, too. All those free throws result in constant stoppages in play, and that runs counter to The Citadel’s “embrace the pace” philosophy. It’s hard to run the other team out of the gym if it gets to rest every minute or so, and score points with the clock stopped.

In The Citadel’s last two games (both losses), Bulldog opponents combined to shoot 74 free throws.

Going back through Duggar Baucom’s career, opponents’ free throw rate has rarely been a serious problem. The current rate would be by far the highest allowed by one of his teams since he became a head coach. That is something that must be fixed as The Citadel begins its conference campaign.

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Speaking of the SoCon, the Bulldogs’ first opponent is the favorite to win the league, and has had some impressive non-conference results. Chattanooga is 11-2, with victories over Georgia, Illinois, and Dayton. All three of those wins under first-year head coach Matt McCall came away from home.

Per kenpom.com, Chattanooga has an 82% probability of winning the game against The Citadel (with a projected scoreline of 93-81).

Preseason SoCon player of the year pick Casey Jones has missed the last five games for the Mocs due to an ankle injury, but UTC managed to beat Dayton without him. Justin Tuoyo was a major force for the Mocs in last year’s game at McAlister Field House (14 points, 9 rebounds, 6 blocks); I would expect the 6’10” junior to be a problem for the Bulldogs again on Saturday.

The contest will be streamed on ESPN3 and will also be broadcast in Charleston on WQNT-AM 1450 radio (1 pm ET tip time).

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After the game against Chattanooga, The Citadel will travel to Alabama to face Samford on Tuesday night before returning home for a Saturday afternoon matchup with Mercer.

The “real” season starts now.

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