Attendance at Johnson Hagood Stadium, 1964-2017: an annual review

This post will cover home attendance at The Citadel, which is a subject I’ve written about several times before. I’m also going to discuss NCAA football attendance in general (including FCS and SoCon-specific numbers), because I think it is important to consider the program’s attendance issues in context with the rest of the sport.

Attendance at Johnson Hagood Stadium, 1964-2017

The above link is to a spreadsheet that tracks attendance for The Citadel’s home football games, and which has now been updated to include the 2017 season.

The spreadsheet lists year-by-year totals and average game attendance, and the win/loss record for the Bulldogs in each season. There is also a category ranking the years by average attendance.

Other columns refer to the program’s winning percentage over a two-year, three-year, five-year, and ten-year period, with the “current” season being the final year in each category. For example, the three-year winning percentage for 1992 (69.44%, the highest percentage for that category since 1964) is made up of the 1990, 1991, and 1992 seasons. Incidentally, the second-highest percentage in this category since 1964 happens to be the overall record for The Citadel’s most recent three campaigns.

I include those categories primarily to see what impact, if any, constant winning (or losing) has on long-term attendance trends.

In past years, I’ve noted that walk-up sales appear to have had an impact on yearly totals; in other words, if the team is good, it is reflected in that season’s attendance. This is certainly not a spectacular revelation, but the numbers for The Citadel appear to be higher than expected when compared to attendance for the following year (when you might naturally expect an increase in attendance as a result of the previous season’s on-field success).

In the last few years, I have compared average attendance for the first two games of a season to the last two contests of the same campaign. Of course, there are plenty of opportunities for discrepancies when making such a comparison (weather, opponent fan base, etc.), but it strikes me as something worth following. I’ve added the 2017 numbers, so there is now a seven-year period to check:

  • 2011 [4-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 12,756; final two home games, average attendance of 12,387 (including Homecoming)
  • 2012 [7-4 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 13,281; final two home games, average attendance of 13,715 (including Homecoming)
  • 2013 [5-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 13,370; final two home games, average attendance of 12,948 (including Homecoming)
  • 2014 [5-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 9,700; final two home games, average attendance of 9,563 (including Homecoming)
  • 2015 [9-4 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 8,356; final two home games, average attendance of 12,465 (including Homecoming)
  • 2016 [10-2 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 13,299; final two home games, average attendance of 13,996 (including Homecoming)
  • 2017 [5-6 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 8,718; final two home games, average attendance of 9,496 (including Homecoming)

Since 1964, the Bulldogs’ record at Johnson Hagood Stadium is 187-114 (62.1%). The average home attendance over that time period is 14,055. However, there has not been a season in which home attendance averaged more than 14,055 since 2006.

As the current stadium capacity is less than 12,000 due to the demolition of the East stands in the spring of 2017, it will be a while before The Citadel can expect to enjoy a season with average game attendance in excess of 14,055. Whether or not surpassing that benchmark is even realistic going forward, regardless of the size of the facility, is an open question.

Last season’s average home attendance of 8,994 was the lowest for any year since attendance figures at Johnson Hagood Stadium can be accurately determined (in other words, the lowest in the last 54 seasons).

Note: that cutoff for accuracy in attendance numbers means that years like 1959 (eight wins), 1960 (bowl victory), and 1961 (SoCon championship) cannot be included for comparison in this review, not to mention any of the other years from 1948 (when the most recent iteration of Johnson Hagood Stadium opened) through the 1963 season. “Official” attendance figures prior to 1948 are (for the most part) even more dubious.

Now let’s look at FCS attendance as a whole.

2017 NCAA football attendance (all divisions)

Montana easily led the division in average home attendance again, with 25,535 (six games). That was higher than 45 FBS programs, and higher than the average home attendance for three FBS conferences (Sun Belt, MAC, C-USA).

James Madison was second overall, averaging 21,724. That included nine games, three of which were playoff contests (all of these numbers include playoff games).

Without the postseason matchups (and their generally lackluster attendance numbers), JMU would have averaged 24,841 fans per home game.

Seven FCS schools averaged more than 18,000 fans per game. Last season, five FCS schools hit that mark (after eight had done so in 2015).

The Citadel ranked 34th out of 123 FCS schools, but only fourth in the Southern Conference (behind Western Carolina, Mercer, and Chattanooga). Last year, the Bulldogs ranked 1st in attendance among fellow league teams. It was the first time in the last 12 years that The Citadel did not finish in the top 30 in FCS attendance.

Here is a table that includes various FCS squads and their respective attendance totals:

Team G Total Average FCS Rank
Montana 6 141,212 23,535 1
James Madison 9 195,514 21,724 2
Florida A&M 4 76,190 19,048 3
Yale 5 94,699 18,940 4
Montana State 6 111,702 18,617 5
Jacksonville State 6 110,328 18,388 6
North Dakota State 9 164,996 18,333 7
Prairie View A&M 5 89,016 17,803 8
Delaware 6 99,890 16,648 9
North Carolina A&T 5 78,486 15,697 10
South Carolina State 5 59,414 11,883 19
Western Carolina 5 52,735 10,547 23
Mercer 5 52,725 10,545 24
Harvard 5 52,055 10,411 27
Eastern Washington 5 50,617 10,123 28
South Dakota 5 46,736 9,347 32
Chattanooga 5 45,848 9,170 33
The Citadel 5 44,972 8,994 34
Texas Southern 5 43,994 8,799 35
Austin Peay 5 41,708 8,342 39
Norfolk State 6 49,908 8,318 40
Sacramento State 6 49,891 8,315 41
William and Mary 5 41,182 8,236 44
Richmond 5 40,925 8,185 45
East Tennessee State 6 48,050 8,008 46
Nicholls 6 47,295 7,883 47
Furman 5 38,875 7,775 48
Princeton 5 36,831 7,366 51
Lehigh 6 42,827 7,138 56
Elon 6 42,118 7,020 58
Kennesaw State 7 46,874 6,696 63
Wofford 6 38,831 6,472 68
Villanova 5 28,244 5,649 74
Campbell 6 33,276 5,546 77
Towson 5 26,884 5,377 80
Samford 6 32,024 5,337 81
Penn 5 26,374 5,275 82
Gardner-Webb 5 23,017 4,603 90
VMI 5 21,623 4,325 94
Savannah State 4 17,046 4,262 95
Davidson 6 20,119 3,353 100
Charleston Southern 5 11,727 2,345 110
Presbyterian 8 18,558 2,320 111
Georgetown 5 10,829 2,166 116
Delaware State 4 8,432 2,108 119
Jacksonville 6 12,536 2,089 120
Robert Morris 5 10,099 2,020 121
Stetson 6 11,647 1,941 122
Saint Francis (PA) 5 8,065 1,613 123

Apologies if that table is a bit too long, but I was trying to include a varied cross-section of FCS teams. I didn’t want to list all 123, but I wound up including 49 of them anyway…

Observations:

  • Yale ranked 3rd overall in FCS attendance in 2015, 35th in 2016, and 4th in 2017. Why the yo-yo effect? It’s all about the location of the Harvard-Yale game, which was played at the Yale Bowl in both of the odd-numbered years. Last season, that matchup drew 51,426 fans.
  • The lowest average home attendance for a team that made the 2017 playoffs: San Diego (2,142, which ranked 117th). Lowest average home attendance for a team that actually hosted a playoff game last season: Wofford.
  • Furman’s home attendance jumped over 2,000 fans per game in 2017, from 5,771 to 7,775. For the first time in four seasons, Furman outdrew Wofford.
  • Montana and Montana State combined to average 21,076 per home contest. No other western school packed in more than 10,123 fans per game (Eastern Washington). Keep in mind that neither Montana nor Montana State made the FCS playoffs last year; the two Treasure State institutions had a combined record of 12-10.
  • North Alabama, which is transitioning from Division II to D-1 and will be in the Big South for football, averaged 7,498 fans per home game last season.
  • Other D-2 home attendance averages of interest: Benedict (5,180); Newberry (3,212); North Greenville (3,147); Lenoir-Rhyne (4,330); Chowan (2,904); Catawba (2,472); Carson-Newman (3,109).
  • Hampton, which is also moving to the Big South (assuming its nasty fight with the MEAC is finally over), averaged 7,088 fans per home contest in 2017.
  • Campbell is adding football scholarships and moving its football program from the Pioneer League to the Big South (you will need a scorecard to keep up with the Big South for the next few years). Average home attendance for Campbell last season: 5,546.
  • Moving the other direction, Presbyterian is going to be playing football in the Pioneer League, leaving the Big South in that sport. PC averaged only 2,320 fans per game last season. On the bright side, that isn’t out of line with its soon-to-be colleagues in the Pioneer League, four of which averaged less than that total in 2017. The highest-ranked Pioneer League school in terms of attendance was Morehead State (72nd overall).
  • The football additions for the Big South will greatly help that league in terms of fan support. Last season, four of the five schools in the conference (not counting Liberty) ranked 90th or below nationally in FCS attendance.
  • South Carolina State got a nice bump in attendance (an increase of 1,702 fans per home contest) thanks in part to games in Orangeburg against North Carolina A&T and Howard (the latter was Homecoming).

The average home attendance for SoCon teams was 7,827, a decline on average of 559 fans per game from 2016. League averages for the last four years:

  • 2014: 8,204
  • 2015: 8,210
  • 2016: 8,386
  • 2017: 7,827

East Tennessee State could be considered the median of the SoCon in terms of home attendance, finishing fifth in the league with an average of 8,008 fans per game.

Average attendance across FCS last season was 7,798, though the median attendance was 6,762. Thus, the SoCon was just slightly above the national average in terms of attendance, despite ranking only 9th out of 13 FCS conferences in average attendance.

I decided to break down attendance by league games only — in other words, not counting any non-conference home games (regular or post-season) played by SoCon teams. The average attendance for those games (a total of 36) was 7,937. The median attendance in this category was 7,783.

The most attended conference game last season was Wofford’s game at Mercer on September 9, with an announced attendance of 12,727. On October 7, Samford played at VMI, a game that drew just 3,310 spectators, the smallest crowd to watch a league contest in 2017.

Major-college football experienced its largest per-game attendance drop in 34 years and second-largest ever, according to recently released NCAA figures.

Attendance among the 129 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) teams in 2017 was down an average of 1,409 fans per game from 2016. That marked the largest drop since 1983 when average attendance declined 1,527 fans per game from 1982.

The 2017 FBS average of 42,203 fans per game is the lowest since 1997.

That average attendance drop marked the second-sharpest decline since the NCAA began keeping track of college football attendance in 1948. For the first time in history, average attendance declined nationally for four consecutive seasons…

…Since establishing an all-time high average attendance in 2008 (46,971), FBS attendance has slipped a record 10.1 percent over the last nine years.

That quoted section is from a story on college football attendance written by Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports. Dodd also noted that the decline had even affected the ever-popular SEC. The reasons for the falloff in attendance are varied, but a former Southern Conference commissioner had some thoughts on the issue:

“It’s a technology issue,” said Wright Waters…”The public is ahead of us every day in what they can get from technology. We have not been able to keep up.”

A former TV executive quoted in the article put most of the “blame” on the lack of attendance on students not showing up to games, but a very good article in The Athletic strongly suggested that notion was a bit faulty. I’m not going to quote a lot from that particular piece, which is behind a paywall, but as the author (Michael Weinreb) wrote:

Let’s dispel with one stereotype up front: This decrease is not taking place merely because of the inherent laziness of millennials…

…It also is not about the lack of consistent Wi-Fi coverage at stadiums. Nels Popp, an assistant professor of sport administration at the University of North Carolina, says that despite colleges’ obsession with improving Wi-Fi, connectivity is the “lowest reliable variable” when it comes to attendance. In other words: People don’t stay home because of lousy Wi-Fi, even if they consider good Wi-Fi to be a bonus when they do show up.

“Our response when we see students aren’t coming tends to be, ‘Let’s throw more #### at them,'” says Robert Malekoff, Popp’s colleague in UNC’s Department of Exercise and Sport Science.

In a way, that might be true, but it’s not about literally hurling T-shirts or network passwords in their general direction (it may not be about social media blasts, either, if Popp’s research on the lack of impact of social media on attendance bears out with further study). It’s a more subtle, experiential thing.

That research article by UNC professor Nels Popp on the impact of social media on attendance is quite interesting. One of its conclusions: “Twitter ‘Followers’ and Facebook ‘Likes’ had no statistically relevant impact on either attendance or ticket revenue”. Rather, historical and current on-field (and on-court) success were the decisive factors, along with “belonging to a Bowl Championship Series (BCS) Conference”.

The Citadel is probably not going to be joining a power-five conference anytime soon, so let’s just win a lot of games…

Circling back to the subject of attendance at Johnson Hagood Stadium, I have to mention the beer sales, or lack thereof:

The Citadel lost money selling beer at home football games in 2017, and it’s unclear whether beer sales will continue at Johnson Hagood Stadium for the 2018 season.

The school sold $21,718.24 worth of beer at five home games last season, The Citadel’s first effort to sell beer in public areas of the stadium.

But expenses to sell the beer, including $5,000 per game in rental costs to set up a beer garden, amounted to $32,858.62, leaving a net loss of $11,140.38.

The Citadel’s athletic department split the loss with corporate partner Sticky Fingers, leaving each party with a loss of $5,570.19 for the season.

Interim athletic director Rob Acunto told a committee of The Citadel’s Board of Visitors on Wednesday that the school’s beer vendor would not partner with The Citadel next season if the beer garden setup remains the same.

However, Acunto said, the beer vendor is interested in an expanded concept “because profitability would be virtually guaranteed if rental costs were eliminated.”

Without rental costs, he said, net revenue for beer sales would have been $13,859.62.

To be honest, I think $5,000 per game to set up a tent is a bit absurd, but maybe I’m missing something. Putting that aside for a moment:

  • The beer garden was located on the visitors’ side of the field, when most of the would-be customers were on the other side of the stadium
  • It was located next to a children’s play area
  • From what I understand, you couldn’t really watch the game from the tent; oddly enough, some people do like watching the game

I don’t know if selling beer is going to do much for attendance, and truthfully I’m somewhat ambivalent on the concept of selling beer at a small-college sporting event as it is. However, if you’re going to sell beer, my suggestion is to go ahead and make it part of the regular concessions package. Let the people sitting in the stands buy beer if they are of age (cadets excepted).

Also, if we’re determined to put food/beverage options on the visitors’ side (and why not?), add food carts to the mix.

One obvious issue with attendance at Johnson Hagood Stadium is that currently about half of the stadium does not exist. Of course, right now nothing is going to happen on that front, because the school doesn’t have a president or a permanent director of athletics.

When the new president is in place, one of his top priorities should be getting a permanent structure built on the east side of the stadium. It should be the top priority for the new AD.

The first game of the season is less than five months away. Are you ready?

McAlister Musings: are the Bulldogs turning the corner?

Links of interest:

Zane Najdawi is the reigning SoCon player of the week for the second time this season

Bulldogs make huge comeback, beat Furman

On January 21, The Citadel was 6-13 overall, 1-6 in the league, and coming off of a very poor game at VMI. Things were not exactly looking up.

Two weeks later, the Bulldogs are 9-14, 4-7 in the league, with four straight encouraging performances, three of which resulted in victories. Birds are singing, and happy days are here again.

What happened? Well, for one thing, Duggar Baucom challenged his squad after the VMI loss, telling them they were “better than that”.

However, there has also been a tactical shift — at least, according to Furman coach Bob Richey:

It’s a totally different team. They are playing totally different.

…At our place, The Citadel played more zone defense, zone pressure back to a a zone. They were trying to out-score you. This team now is taking more pride in their defense, and they are guarding people now.

They change up their defenses, try to keep people on their heels. They’ve shrunk their rotation down, and are playing harder with a lot more belief. Najdawi is as good as any post in the league, and we couldn’t do anything with him. Frierson’s shooting the ball, Harris is shooting it, Frankie (Johnson) is driving it.

Look, they are good. If you ask any of the four coaches they’ve played in the last four games, they’d agree.

 —
Let’s break down the stats to see what Richey is talking about.

Possessions* PPP – TC PPP – Opp FTA/FGA – TC FT% – TC
WCU 86 0.92 0.94 0.46 0.55
@Furman 83 0.81 1.29 0.29 0.50
@Wofford 90 1.02 1.21 0.44 0.58
Samford 87 1.05 1.23 0.26 0.59
UTC 69 1.39 1.28 0.43 0.81
@UNCG 68 0.85 1.06 0.28 0.60
@VMI 81 1.00 1.09 0.38 0.80
@Mercer 68 1.12 1.09 0.26 0.86
ETSU 77 0.92 0.95 0.50 0.85
Wofford 75 1.07 1.04 0.34 0.82
Furman 69 1.28 1.18 0.49 0.73
First 7 80.57 1.01 1.16 0.37 0.63
Last 4 72.25 1.10 1.07 0.40 0.82

* Overtime possessions not counted (this applies to the home games versus UTC and Furman)

  • TC = The Citadel, obviously
  • PPP = Points per possession
  • FTA/FGA = Free throws attempted/field goals attempted
  • FT% = Free throw percentage

I broke down the numbers by totaling the first seven games (WCU through VMI) and the last four (Mercer through Furman).

Clearly the number of possessions have declined as the league campaign has progressed. It is possible that a trend in that direction began when the Bulldogs played Chattanooga, though A) I think the UTC game may have been an outlier due to the Mocs’ depth issues, and B) The Citadel reverted to an 81-possession contest versus VMI two games later.

The slight dialing down of the pace has benefited the Bulldogs on both sides of the court, at least statistically, but I believe The Citadel’s offense has been helped the most. The Bulldogs were not really scoring at a rate that would give them a chance to win most games, but of late that has markedly improved.

Of course, there is a symbiotic relationship between offense and defense in basketball, so it can be hard to say that one element is clearly the beneficiary of a switch in tempo.

One other major positive development, which I have included in the table above, has been the Bulldogs’ vastly improved free throw shooting. If The Citadel had shot from the foul line in its last four games as it did in its first four contests, the Bulldogs would have gone 0-4 in that stretch instead of 3-1.

The other thing to watch when it comes to the charity stripe is the number of opportunities The Citadel gets over the course of a game. This is generally reflected in FTA/FGA numbers (as opposed to raw totals).

The Bulldogs have done a much better job in this area in league play (the non-conference D-1 slate was not kind to them in that respect). They currently lead the SoCon in the category in league-only games.

Conversely, The Citadel is seventh in the conference in defensive FTA/FGA. The Bulldogs need to keep the opponents off the foul line as much as possible.

A few other stats of note (SoCon games only):

  • If you want to see a blocked shot, go watch a game involving The Citadel. Opponents are blocking 13.2% of the Bulldogs’ field goal attempts, most in the league. That isn’t good, but on the bright side The Citadel is blocking 10.1% of its opponents’ shots (third-best in the conference).
  • 53.9% of The Citadel’s field goal attempts in league play have come from three-point land, most in the conference — and that is really saying something, because teams in the SoCon love to hoist up shots from beyond the arc. No league in the country shoots a higher percentage of three-pointers as a whole.
  • The Citadel leads the conference in assist-to-made field goal rate (61.0%). Again, this is another area in which the league in general excels (second-best rate among all conferences).

What should The Citadel’s goal(s) be for the rest of the season?

I think the Bulldogs should aim for a top-6 seed in the league tournament. If a team finishes in the top six in the conference standings, it avoids having to play a first-round game on the first day of the SoCon tournament (which this year is Friday, March 2, in Asheville).

That would be ideal for The Citadel as far as the dream scenario is concerned (shocking the world by winning the tourney). Winning three games in three days is clearly easier than having to win four games in four days. It would also be good from a long-term perspective, as it would be tangible proof that the program is on the rise and will be a factor in the SoCon for the next few years to come.

It won’t be easy, although if the tourney were held on February 7, The Citadel would in fact be the sixth seed. Alas, the tournament doesn’t begin on February 7, and the schedule is not going to be particularly favorable for the Bulldogs down the stretch (only three of the remaining seven conference matchups are at McAlister Field House).

According to kenpom, The Citadel is projected to finish seventh in the SoCon with a 6-12 league record, a full three games behind the projected sixth-place finisher (Mercer). That is a reflection of the schedule, and also what the numbers say about the Bulldogs – namely, that The Citadel is still a bottom 50 team nationally according to the website.

The Bulldogs haven’t played like a bottom 50 team over the last two weeks, however. If they continue to improve (or even just maintain their current level of play), I think there is a solid chance The Citadel could indeed wind up as a top-6 seed.

The Citadel is currently only favored in one of its last seven games (the home game against VMI, which incidentally is going to be the day to Pack the Mac). At a minimum, the Bulldogs need to win three of the seven contests to have a shot at the top six. I suspect the Bulldogs will have to win two of their three home games, and at least one road matchup (if not two), to pull it off.

Winning at Chattanooga on Thursday would be a great way to start the stretch run…

I’ll finish off this post with some random statistics, many of them courtesy of Synergy Sports. Do I really understand all the numbers put out by Synergy Sports? No, I do not. Do I look at them anyway? Yes, I do.

These stats include all games — conference games, non-conference games, even the non-D1 matchups. Most are based on points per possessions (PPP).

  • The Citadel ranks 14th nationally in offensive PPP after timeouts (1.036). Boise State leads the nation in this category (1.09). Other teams in the top 10 include Campbell (2nd), Xavier, Kansas, Villanova, and Purdue.
  • The Bulldogs are not very good at making catch-and-shoot jump shots when guarded (bottom 20 nationally). However, opponents that don’t guard in that situation pay for it. The Citadel is 5th in the country in points per possession when shooting unguarded catch/shoot jumpers, just ahead of Kansas. Leading the world in this category: St. Mary’s.
  • The Citadel remains the shortest team in D-1 (per kenpom), with an “average height” of 74.0 inches.
  • Individuals who rank in the 85th percentile or better nationally in various offensive categories: Matt Frierson (overall PPP, transition scoring, shots off screens, and spot-up shooting), Zane Najdawi (post-up play), Alex Reed (spot-up shooting), Tariq Simmons (isolation), Quayson Williams (shots off screens), and Kaelon Harris (offensive rebound put-backs). Harris also ranks in the 92nd percentile in a category called “Miscellaneous”, which sounds like a we-don’t-know-what-he-did-but-he-somehow-scored kind of thing.
  • The Citadel actually ranks 5th in the nation in half court man-to-man defense, which seems more than a little odd. I’m going to guess that most of the Bulldogs’ man-to-man defending has come against its non-D1 opponents (notable exception: The Citadel extensively employed man-to-man against Wofford in the game at McAlister Field House). For the season, the Bulldogs have played man-to-man in the half-court only 28.6% of the time; as a comparison, Virginia has played half-court man-to-man 99.9% of the time. The two teams that have been truly dominant defensively this season, Cincinnati and UVA, rank 1-2 in this category.
  • The Bulldogs are poor defending plays in out-of-bounds situations along the endlines (1.055 PPP), but are very good defending out-of-bounds plays that originate from the sidelines (0.7 PPP). I don’t really understand why that would be the case.

Okay, that’s enough for now.

Go Dogs!

McAlister Musings: 2017-18 SoCon play begins for the Bulldogs

Link of interest:

The Citadel plunges into “scary” SoCon play

The Citadel is 5-7 so far this season, though only two of the Bulldogs’ victories have come against D-1 opposition. The big news in the early part of the schedule was negative, as 2017 SoCon Freshman of the Year Preston Parks was dismissed from the team and will transfer.

This post will cover the first three games of the SoCon campaign — December 30 versus Western Carolina, January 4 at Furman, and January 6 at Wofford.

First, some statistics. I decided to look at the numbers from the six games The Citadel played against “similar” opposition — in other words, none of the games played against non-D1 teams, and none of the contests against power-conference schools.

The games I selected:

The Citadel’s stats in those six contests (I’ve included national averages in some categories for comparison):

Poss Pts %2pt %3pt %FT 2M 2Att 2FG% 3M 3Att 3FG% eFG%
N.C. A&T 89 73 60.3% 20.5% 19.2% 22 46 47.8% 5 33 15.2% 37.3%
HPU 77 79 43.0% 38.0% 19.0% 17 39 43.6% 10 25 40.0% 50.0%
Marist 90 91 37.4% 49.5% 13.2% 17 37 45.9% 15 42 35.7% 50.0%
UMBC 78 72 50.0% 25.0% 25.0% 18 40 45.0% 6 29 20.7% 39.1%
JMU 80 84 52.4% 39.3% 8.3% 22 35 62.9% 11 24 45.8% 65.3%
Campbell 74 77 57.1% 27.3% 15.6% 22 48 45.8% 7 26 26.9% 43.9%
Avg 81.33 79.3 49.6% 34.0% 16.4% 19.7 40.8 48.2% 9.0 29.8 30.2% 41.2%
Natl. Avg. 69.9 49.5% 31.4% 19.1% 49.9% 35.0% 50.9%

 

FT FTatt FTA/FGA FT% OR DR TR OR% A A/FGM
N.C. A&T 14 21 26.6% 66.7% 17 25 42 40.5% 8 29.6%
HPU 15 23 35.9% 65.2% 15 21 36 41.7% 13 48.1%
Marist 12 17 21.5% 70.6% 10 25 35 28.6% 18 56.3%
UMBC 18 29 42.0% 62.1% 15 23 38 39.5% 15 62.5%
JMU 7 11 18.6% 63.6% 3 27 30 10.0% 18 54.5%
Campbell 12 16 21.6% 75.0% 12 24 36 33.3% 12 41.4%
Avg 13.0 19.5 27.6% 66.7% 12.0 24.2 36.2 33.2% 14.0 48.8%
Natl. Avg. 33.9% 70.7% 29.2% 53.0%

TO TO% A/TO Blk Blk% Stl Stl% PF
N.C. A&T 18 20.2% 0.44 1 2.2% 9 10.1% 20
HPU 17 22.1% 0.76 5 12.8% 11 14.3% 14
Marist 12 13.3% 1.5 1 2.7% 9 10.0% 19
UMBC 10 12.8% 1.5 1 2.5% 9 11.5% 18
JMU 18 22.5% 1 4 11.4% 12 15.0% 20
Campbell 6 8.1% 2 3 6.3% 6 8.1% 19
Avg 13.5 16.6% 1.04 2.5 6.1% 9.3 11.5% 18.3
Natl Avg. 19.2% 9.4% 10.8%

 

The Citadel’s opponents’ statistics in those six games:

Poss Pts %2pt %3pt %FT 2M 2Att 2FG% 3M 3Att 3FG% eFG%
N.C. A&T 89 92 65.2% 22.8% 12.0% 30 43 69.8% 7 22 31.8% 62.3%
HPU 77 77 64.9% 19.5% 15.6% 25 53 47.2% 5 12 41.7% 50.0%
Marist 90 100 34.0% 54.0% 12.0% 17 23 73.9% 18 40 45.0% 69.8%
UMBC 78 98 40.8% 49.0% 10.2% 20 34 58.8% 16 42 38.1% 57.9%
JMU 80 82 48.8% 29.3% 22.0% 20 43 46.5% 8 25 32.0% 47.1%
Campbell 74 87 57.5% 27.6% 14.9% 25 48 52.1% 8 21 38.1% 53.6%
Avg 81.33 89.3 51.1% 34.7% 14.2% 22.8 40.7 56.1% 10.3 27 38.3% 49.8%
Natl. Avg. 69.9 49.5% 31.4% 19.1% 35.0% 50.9%

 

FT Ftatt FTA/FGA FT% OR DR TR OR% A A/FGM
N.C. A&T 11 15 23.1% 73.3% 6 41 47 12.8% 25 67.6%
HPU 12 12 18.5% 100.0% 14 27 41 34.1% 15 50.0%
Marist 12 17 27.0% 70.6% 6 37 43 14.0% 24 68.6%
UMBC 10 16 21.1% 62.5% 21 36 57 36.8% 24 66.7%
JMU 18 22 32.4% 81.8% 15 27 42 35.7% 18 64.3%
Campbell 13 20 29.0% 65.0% 16 35 51 31.4% 20 60.6%
Avg 12.7 17 25.1% 74.5% 13 33.8 46.8 27.8% 21 63.3%
Natl. Avg. 33.9% 70.7% 29.2% 53.0%

 

TO TO% A/TO Blk Blk% Stl Stl% PF
N.C. A&T 22 24.7% 1.14 3 7.0% 8 9.0% 18
HPU 20 26.0% 0.75 10 18.9% 12 15.6% 22
Marist 25 27.8% 0.96 6 26.1% 3 3.3% 17
UMBC 15 19.2% 1.60 4 11.8% 5 6.4% 23
JMU 17 21.3% 1.06 4 9.3% 10 12.5% 16
Campbell 9 12.2% 2.22 5 10.4% 3 4.1% 10
Avg 18 22.1% 1.17 5.3 13.1% 6.8 8.4% 17.7
Natl Avg. 19.2% 9.4% 10.8%

 

Observations based on those numbers (keeping in mind, it is just these six games, so sample size must be considered):

  • In these contests, The Citadel got more points as a percentage of its offense from 3-point shooting (34.0%) than does the average D-1 squad (31.4%). Free throws have not been a major part of the offense, at least compared to the rest of the country. Somewhat curiously, that has also been true for The Citadel’s opponents in this survey; in all games, however, that definitely isn’t the case.
  • The Bulldogs need to improve from the charity stripe, not just in quantity but in quality. The Citadel’s 66.7% rate isn’t good enough (and that number doesn’t significantly change when all games are included).  Conversely, Bulldog opponents are making their free throws at a solid rate.
  • Besides not shooting free throws all that well, The Citadel isn’t making a high enough percentage of three-point shots; the Bulldogs have been erratic at best from beyond the arc. That is why The Citadel has a below-average effective field goal percentage.
  • The Citadel’s offensive rebounding rate isn’t half-bad. Also, while the defensive rebounding rate for all games is terrible, when just these six games are surveyed, the Bulldogs look much better in that category. In other words, The Citadel is more or less holding its own on the boards against “like” opposition. The Bulldogs’ opponents have more rebounds mainly because The Citadel has missed more shots.
  • On offense, the Bulldogs’ turnover rate is acceptable. The defense is forcing its fair share of turnovers but needs to create even more, particularly of the “live-ball” variety.
  • The Citadel’s assist-to-made basket rate is slightly below average. Opponents are doing better than the Bulldogs in this area.
  • The steal rate for the Bulldogs is good, but is not nearly as impressive when the games against non-D1 teams aren’t counted.
  • According to kenpom, The Citadel’s average height (that is, the average height of the players on the court at any given time) is shorter than all but one D-1 team. (In case you were wondering, Southern Mississippi is 351st.) Therefore it is not much of a surprise that the Bulldogs do not block a lot of shots, and that their opponents will have an advantage on the other side of the court as well (the stat only takes 2-point shooting into account).

A few other points worth mentioning:

  • The Citadel’s bench minutes (all games) is second in all of D-1, behind only Northwestern State. This is reflected in the average minutes played by each player on the roster, with eleven Bulldogs averaging 10 or more minutes per game.
  • In terms of experience, the Bulldogs — well, they don’t have a lot. Per kenpom, The Citadel is 344th out of 351 teams in that category. That said, the Bulldogs do have a reasonable amount of returning experience, as their “minutes continuity” (the percentage of a team’s minutes played by the same players from last season to the current campaign) is basically average.

I’m still trying to decipher the myriad statistics provided via subscription by Synergy Sports, so I’m not going to do any serious breakdowns based on those numbers. (Synergy’s definition of a possession appears to be different from the one used by kenpom and most other analysts, which has complicated things.) That said, here are a few pieces of information to digest (all 12 games are included for these stats):

  • The Citadel is average to below average in most situational categories, but the Bulldogs are better than average at scoring when there is less than 4 seconds remaining on the shot clock. The Citadel is also better than most teams on the defensive side of the ball when the shot clock is about to expire. I’m not sure why that would be the case; perhaps routinely playing a chaotic style of basketball lends itself to keeping one’s head when the shot clock hits 5. Also, there is a sample size issue, since the shot clock is rarely a factor when the Bulldogs are playing.
  • The Bulldogs are good at running offense on out-of-bounds plays from under the basket, but are not nearly as good when in-bounding from the sidelines.
  • The Citadel’s most successful offense in the half-court is finding players coming off screens. Isolation plays and cuts to the basket have also been profitable.
  • The Bulldogs are below average on put-backs directly coming from offensive rebounds, and are not good at all running the pick and roll (the “roll man” only gets the ball 22.9% of the time on that play, if I’m reading the numbers correctly).
  • Defensively, The Citadel has struggled coming out of timeouts. Also, the Bulldogs have been poor defending out-of-bounds plays under the basket.
  • The Bulldogs have done a good job against the pick and roll. Conversely, spot-up shooters have fared well against The Citadel.

According to Synergy Sports’ statistical breakdown, the two most efficient offensive performers for the Bulldogs have been Matt Frierson and Alex Reed. In related news:

Freshman Alex Reed has earned a starting spot with his recent play, scoring 11 points in a Dec. 19 loss at Ohio State.

“Alex has turned into a really good player for us,” [Duggar] Baucom said. “He’s shooting well from 3-point range, gets to loose balls and is in the right place at the right time on defense.”

I’ll discuss more of the Synergy stuff when I more fully understand all the information, assuming I will actually manage to get to that point…

Below is a table of full-season D-1 only statistics of note for The Citadel (I’ll be using this same format when discussing the Bulldogs’ opponents). Keep in mind that A) this doesn’t include stats from the games against Oglethorpe, Trinity Baptist, and Point; and B) there are 351 teams in Division I.

– The Citadel’s adjusted tempo: 81.5 (second nationally; Savannah State is first)

The Citadel Offense Rank Defense Rank Natl Avg
Efficiency 99.3 257 113.2 334 103.5
Effective FG% 46.2 307 59.8 343 50.8
Turnover % 17.5 81 20.6 107 19.2
Off. Reb. % 26.9 239 37.3 345 29.2
FTA/FGA 25.5 325 26.8 44 33.9

Okay, let’s take a very quick look at the next three upcoming opponents:

Western Carolina — December 30, 1:00 pm ET, McAlister Field House

Western Carolina is 4-8, with two non-D1 wins. Seven of its eight losses are to kenpom top-150 opponents; the exception is a home loss to High Point.

WCU also has victories over Appalachian State and UNC-Asheville. Those are both decent wins (UNCA has beaten both Wofford and UNC-Greensboro).

– WCU’s average adjusted tempo: 70.5 (138th nationally)

WCU Offense Rank Defense Rank Natl Avg
Efficiency 98.1 275 108.3 271 103.5
Effective FG% 46.7 292 56.6 322 50.8
Turnover % 21.9 300 20.9 89 19.2
Off. Reb. % 26.0 263 35.5 331 29.2
FTA/FGA 28.9 281 42.2 303 33.9

Western Carolina doesn’t get to the foul line too often, but its opponents do. The Catamounts also struggle keeping opponents off the offensive glass.

WCU does force a lot of turnovers on defense, but it also commits way too many on offense.

Per one source that deals in such matters, Western Carolina is a one-point favorite over The Citadel. The over/under is 170.5.

The prediction from kenpom: The Citadel 88, Western Carolina 87

Furman — January 4, 7:30 pm ET, Timmons Arena

  • Streaming: SoCon Digital Network

Furman is 9-4 so far this year. The Paladins have some solid wins (UNC-Asheville, Elon, Northeastern). Three of FU’s four losses are to kenpom top-50 opponents, all on the road — Butler, Duke, and Tennessee. The game against the Volunteers wasn’t decided until the final seconds.

The Paladins also lost at home to Winthrop by 19 points. That seems to be an outlier.

Furman is led by reigning SoCon player of the year Devin Sibley, who averaged 17.7 points per game last season. So far in 2017-18, the senior from Knoxville is averaging 16.2 points per contest. If he can improve his free throw shooting, he has a chance to be a 50-40-80 player (FG%, 3FG%, FT%).

Before playing The Citadel, Furman will travel to VMI on December 30.

– Furman’s adjusted tempo: 70.1 (156th nationally)

Furman Offense Rank Defense Rank Natl Avg
Efficiency 105.5 123 101.8 136 103.5
Effective FG% 51.7 142 51.9 209 50.8
Turnover % 18.2 119 21.5 65 19.2
Off. Reb. % 29.7 164 33.4 302 29.2
FTA/FGA 28.0 300 29.9 99 33.9

Free throws seem to be an irregular occurrence in Furman games. Other than the lack of charity tosses, the Paladins’ offensive numbers are good across the board.

Furman’s opponents have had an edge on the offensive boards, but FU makes up for that by forcing plenty of turnovers.

The prediction from kenpom: Furman 96, The Citadel 78

Wofford — January 6, 7:00 pm ET, Richardson Indoor Arena

  • Streaming: ESPN3

Wofford is 8-4 this year, with the eighth of those wins a monster victory over North Carolina in Chapel Hill. The Terriers are 2-0 in the ACC this year, having also beaten Georgia Tech in Spartanburg.

WC’s losses are to South Carolina (in the game that opened Wofford’s new hoops facility), Texas Tech, California, and UNC-Asheville. All four of those defeats were by at least 14 points, which makes the success against the Tar Heels and Yellow Jackets all the more unexpected (well, at least the UNC game — Georgia Tech has also lost to Grambling State).

– Wofford’s adjusted tempo: 65.9 (330th nationally; the Terriers and Bulldogs will be an interesting contrast)

Wofford Offense Rank Defense Rank Natl Avg
Efficiency 106.5 112 107.3 259 103.5
Effective FG% 53.1 98 56.4 316 50.8
Turnover % 19.2 182 20.8 93 19.2
Off. Reb. % 22 326 30 208 29.2
FTA/FGA 28.3 295 40.5 281 33.9

Wofford’s blowout losses tend to skew the Terriers’ numbers to a certain extent. Wofford shoots the ball very well, but has also allowed some high-efficiency scoring games from its opponents (teams have taken advantage of the three-ball to an unusual degree against WC).

The Terriers are led offensively by Fletcher Magee, who is averaging 24.9 points per game. He is shooting an outrageous 55% from three-land, and that’s with a fairly high volume of shots (102 in 12 games). Magee is a junior from Orlando.

Wofford has two upcoming games before playing The Citadel. The Terriers travel to UNC-Greensboro on December 30, and host VMI on January 4.

The prediction from kenpom: Wofford 92, The Citadel 78

Happy hooping!

2017 Football, Game 11: The Citadel vs. Clemson

The Citadel vs. Clemson, to be played at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, South Carolina, with kickoff at 12:20 pm ET on November 18, 2017.

The game will be televised by local affiliates of the ACC National Network and streamed on the ACC Digital Network. Tom Werme will handle play-by-play, while Dave Archer supplies the analysis and D.J. Shockley reports from the sideline.

The contest can be heard on radio via the various affiliates of The Citadel Sports Network. WQNT-1450 AM [audio link], originating in Charleston, will be the flagship station. 

Mike Legg (the “Voice of the Bulldogs”) will call the action alongside analyst Lee Glaze.

The Citadel Sports Network — 2017 Affiliates

Charleston: WQNT 1450AM/92.1 FM/102.1 FM (Flagship)
Columbia: WQXL 1470AM/95.9FM
Greenville: WLFJ 92.9FM/660AM
Sumter: WDXY 1240AM/105.9FM

Links of interest:

– Game preview, The Post and Courier

Bulldogs aim to play their best

– Game notes from The Citadel and Clemson

– SoCon weekly release

– Preview on The Citadel’s website

– Brent Thompson’s 11/14 press conference, including comments from Jordan Black and Myles Pierce (video)

– Link to the ACC Digital Network’s streaming coverage of The Citadel-Clemson

This week’s preview is shorter than usual. I apologize to anyone who enjoys the “regular” previews, overlong though they may be. This was a tough week to crank out the verbiage, both in terms of time and trying to think of things to write about.

I’ll also be taking a short break from the blog for a couple of weeks. I’ll probably write about the basketball team again in mid-December.

Brent Thompson on playing an FBS team:

I love it. I love it for our players, I love it for our fans. I love it for myself. I love it for the experience of it. I think it’s a lot of fun…I’ve got no problem with it. I think it’s one of the best things we do, and I would love to see it carried on, because you never know when…you do have those days like you had against South Carolina [in 2015]…you live your whole life for those days and times as a coach.

Jordan Black (who grew up a Georgia Tech fan) on playing an FBS team:

I always look forward to these games. As a kid, you watch these athletes on TV on these big fields in front of thousands of fans. These games mean a lot to us guys who don’t get to do that on the regular. It’s exciting to play on this scale of football, so I’m going to enjoy this week.

Okay, so who has a problem with Clemson playing The Citadel? Well, we all know the answer to that…

Gene Sapakoff, sports columnist for The Post and Courier:

Sagarin says Clemson should be favored by 50 over The Citadel, Gamecocks by 27 over Wofford. FBS fans deserve less FCS riff-raff

First, the obvious. The “local” columnist a) chooses to ignore the fact that The Citadel beat an FBS team just two years ago, and b) is seemingly unaware that Wofford is actually not as big an underdog this week as The Citadel was when it beat South Carolina.

Of course, most supporters of The Citadel know that this is standard operating procedure for Sapakoff. His general antipathy for things he considers less than “major” (at least, those that don’t involve Bill Murray) is well-known.

At this point, however, I think it’s fair to ask the entity for which he works if Sapakoff’s decidedly unsophisticated views are representative of the company. As it happens, another fan of the military college pointed out Sapakoff’s comments to Mitch Pugh, who is the executive editor of The Post and Courier. Pugh’s response (also via Twitter):

I don’t think that came of[f] the way he intended…. Who can forget that run by Renew and win two years ago?

I disagree with Pugh. I believe Sapakoff’s comments came off exactly the way the sportswriter intended — which is to say, they came off as insulting.

What he is saying is that Dominique Allen and Myles Pierce are “riff-raff”, as apparently were Tyler Renew and Andre Roberts and Jack Douglas and all the other Bulldog players who have played I-AA/FCS football. Sapakoff’s snide remark leads to no other realistic interpretation, particularly given his history, both in print and on social media.

Of course, he’s also essentially clowning on the players and coaches at Wofford, and Furman, and South Carolina State (just to name three other institutions with long histories in this state).

In recent months, The Post and Courier has expanded its distribution in an effort to become a more statewide newspaper. When Evening Post Industries announced it was increasing its distribution in the Midlands, one of its executives had this to say:

“Our newspaper group’s mission has always been to build community and this move is an extension of that mission,” said P.J. Browning, senior vice president of Evening Post Publishing Newspaper Group and publisher of The Post and Courier.

One thing I would point out to the fine folks who run Evening Post Industries is this: the “community” in the Palmetto State includes a lot of people who have connections to schools besides Clemson University and the University of South Carolina-Columbia. Many of them are proud of those associations, too.

Nobody is asking reporters to be cheerleaders. (Heck, I don’t want cheerleaders on the news desk — I want information.) However, would it be so terrible if the newspaper’s “voices” weren’t so openly antagonistic to the smaller schools in this state, particularly the one that has a football team located in the city in which The Post and Courier is based?

A couple more thoughts on FCS vs. FBS matchups:

I wrote this three years ago after Kirk Herbstreit went on an uninformed rant on the subject:

FCS players almost always love playing these games. They like to measure themselves against top-level competition. They enjoy playing in large stadiums, in a “big time” atmosphere, often on television.

Fans of smaller schools usually like these games too, especially if they aren’t too far away. They are often used for alumni networking and fundraising.

Sometimes, there is an element of tradition associated with these contests. You don’t think alums from Furman or The Citadel enjoy occasional matchups with South Carolina or Clemson? I can assure you that they do.

There is another aspect to this issue. I’ll let Florida State head coach Jimbo Fisher, asked last year about playing FCS teams, explain:

If you don’t play a FCS, how do they make their budget playing a big school? How do the division two’s make their budget? Playing a FCS, see what I’m saying? Alright, you start taking these budgets away from these lower games…where will all the high school football players going to go? Why are they going to keep playing football because all these teams going to have to drop ball and not play games. What you’re doing is you’re killing the sport…from an ego…and all of a sudden guys ain’t gonna play football no more because there ain’t enough schools out there to get scholarships. It’s not about playing FCS, it’s about the game of football and filtering it all the way down so there are scholarships in division two. I played division two football…turned out pretty good…and right now my school doesn’t play football anymore…you know why…couldn’t afford to. What if those opportunities for kids go away?”

Statistics of note for The Citadel through ten games:

The Citadel Opponents
Points per game 23.4 22.9
Rushing yardage 3086 1391
Average per rush 5.2 4.3
Average per game 308.6 139.1
TDs rushing 22 19
Passing yardage 981 1848
Comp-Att-Int 51-131-6 156-255-11
Average per pass 7.5 7.2
TDs passing 9 12
Total offense 4067 3239
Total plays 728 576
Yards per play 5.6 5.6
Kick returns-yards 28-602 24-646
Punt returns-yards 19-171 8-55
Fumbles/lost 18-7 12-6
Avg penalties/penalty yards per game 4.8/39.7 3.0/30.0
Net punt average 35.3 34.0
Time of possession/game 34:07 25:53
3rd down conversions 69/156 36/108
3rd down conversion rate 44.2% 33.3%
Sacks by-yards 16-87 10-64
Field goals-attempts 5-13 4-6
Red Zone touchdown rate (21-40) 52.5% (19-25) 76.0%
  • The Citadel is 18th in FCS in offensive third down conversion rate, and 24th in defensive third down conversion rate
  • Only six FCS teams have committed fewer penalties per game than the Bulldogs (though positive, that statistic is not necessarily a precursor to winning games, as 0-11 VMI is the least penalized team in the nation)
  • The Bulldogs are 121st in kick return defense, which could be problematic against Clemson
  • While The Citadel is last nationally in passing offense, when the Bulldogs do complete a pass, it tends to be a big deal — they rank 1st in FCS in yards per completion (19.24).
  • The Citadel is 2nd in rushing offense (Kennesaw State ranks 1st) and 47th in rushing defense
  • The Bulldogs are 67th in scoring offense and 40th in scoring defense
  • The Citadel is 2nd nationally in time of possession, trailing only Pioneer League champ San Diego

Clemson has had a lot of success in recent years against Georgia Tech, which (like The Citadel) runs the triple option.

Over the past four matchups against the Yellow Jackets, the Tigers have allowed on average just 154 rushing yards per game.

The fact that the Tigers face Georgia Tech every year as opposed to some teams that see the option only a few times a decade is another reason for Clemson’s success, according to [Clemson defensive coordinator Brent] Venables.

“I think planning ahead is probably important, and then from year-to-year when you have a lot of carryover from your personnel and your staff, I think that really helps,” he said. “You’re able to kind of get to the shortcuts quickly as opposed to helping guys try to figure it out .”

The “we play them every year” thing comes up for The Citadel in league play, obviously, especially against teams that have not had a lot of turnover on their coaching staff. Ultimately, though, the reason Clemson is successful defending the triple option is the reason the Tigers’ defense is usually successful against any team it plays: Clemson has a lot of very talented players, and they are extremely well-coached.

Odds and ends:

– The weather forecast for Saturday in Clemson, per the National Weather Service: partly sunny, with an expected high of 64 degrees, and a 30% chance of showers (though any rain would likely not arrive until after 5:00 pm).

– Per one source that deals in such matters, Clemson is a 47-point favorite over The Citadel. The over/under is 52.

– Other lines involving SoCon teams: Western Carolina is a 21 1/2 point underdog at North Carolina; Wofford is a 19-point underdog at South Carolina; Furman is a 4 1/2 point favorite at Samford; Mercer is a 40 1/2 point underdog at Alabama; and Chattanooga is a 10-point favorite versus East Tennessee State. VMI’s season is over.

Around the Palmetto State, Coastal Carolina is a 7 1/2 point underdog at Idaho in a classic Sun Belt battle; Presbyterian is a 3-point home underdog versus Gardner-Webb; South Carolina State is a 7 1/2 point favorite at Savannah State; and Charleston Southern is a 1 1/2 point underdog against Liberty.

– Massey Ratings: The Citadel is ranked 60th in FCS (out of 124 teams), a drop of eight spots from last week. Overall (all college teams ranked), The Citadel is 224th, while Clemson is 2nd.

Massey projects a final score of Clemson 49, The Citadel 0.

Other FCS rankings in Massey of note: Furman is 17th (up one place from last week), Wofford is 24th (down three spots), Samford is 25th (down one place), Western Carolina is 37th (down five spots), Mercer is 40th (unchanged from last week), Charleston Southern is 62nd, Chattanooga is 65th (up two spots), East Tennessee State is 75th (down four places), South Carolina State is 93rd, Presbyterian is 96th, and VMI is 116th (unchanged).

The FCS top five in Massey’s rankings, in order: North Dakota State, James Madison, South Dakota State, Northern Iowa, and Western Illinois.

– Since 1911, The Citadel has a 5-6 record in games played on November 18. Four of those five wins came in Charleston; the home victories include shutouts of Porter Military Academy and Oglethorpe.

The only road victory on that date in The Citadel’s football history came the last time the Bulldogs played on November 18, in 2006, when The Citadel defeated Elon 44-7. In that contest, Andre Roberts caught an 80-yard touchdown pass from Duran Lawson. Nuru Goodrum had three rushing TDs for the Bulldogs.

Tory Cooper rushed for 109 yards. Also having good games that day for The Citadel: Derek Moore and Montrell Lee (both of whom scored touchdowns) and James Wilson (who returned an interception for 49 yards).

– Among Clemson’s notable alums are Medal of Honor recipient Jimmie Dyess, soccer player/commentator Stuart Holden, and diplomat Kristie Kenney.

– Nine current Clemson players are the sons of former Clemson players. Four of the fathers played on the Tigers’ 1981 team that won the AP national title: Jeff Davis (who has two sons on the roster), Perry Tuttle, Bill Smith, and Frank Magwood.

– The roster for Clemson (per its website) includes 47 players from the State of South Carolina. Other states represented: Georgia (18 players), North Carolina (15), Florida (13), Virginia (6), Alabama (4), Maryland (3), Tennessee (3), Indiana (2), Kansas (2), Massachusetts (2), and one each from Colorado, Louisiana, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas.

One of the Tigers, 6’3″, 305 lb. defensive tackle Albert Huggins, is a graduate of legendary football powerhouse Orangeburg-Wilkinson High School. Amazingly, Clemson is the only opponent The Citadel has played this season with a player on its roster who once suited up for the famed (and feared) maroon and orange. Clemson is also the only opponent of the Bulldogs that won a national title last season. That is not a coincidence.

I must point out, however, that of these two schools, it was The Citadel that finished undefeated in league play in 2016.

– The Citadel’s geographic roster breakdown (per the school’s website) is as follows: South Carolina (47 players), Georgia (29), Florida (6), North Carolina (5), Alabama (4), Texas (4), Pennsylvania (3), Tennessee (2), New York (2), and one each from Louisiana, Michigan, Virginia, and West Virginia.

– This week’s game notes from The Citadel included a bit of a change-up in the presentation of the depth chart from past weeks. I like the format adjustment.

– Factoid from those game notes worth mentioning: offensive guards Jonathan Cole and Jon Barrett Lewis, both “true” freshmen, have combined to play 1,514 of a possible 1,522 offensive snaps through ten games this season.

– Saturday is Military Appreciation Day at Clemson. Few schools, if any, put on a better show for Military Appreciation Day than does Clemson, much to its credit. I am sure this year’s production will be outstanding as well.

You will notice I haven’t written about last week’s game against Furman. The reason is simple: there is nothing to say, at least in a positive vein.

I don’t have many expectations for this week’s matchup with Clemson, but I do have some. I expect the Bulldogs to be well prepared, to fight for all sixty minutes of game action, and to have no regrets after the game is over.

This year hasn’t gone as well as the Bulldogs (and their fans) had hoped. That happens. However, it is still important to wring as much out of the season as possible.

Go Dogs!

2017 Football, Game 10: The Citadel vs. Furman

GREENVILLE — The Citadel Bulldogs, offensively on their best behavior of the fall, scored touchdowns in each of the first three periods Saturday night to breeze by Furman’s Hurricanes 24-6 at Sirrine Stadium…

…A chilly crowd, estimated at 8,000 persons, saw the Cadets dominate play throughout the game.

Dick Guererri got the soldiers moving in the first quarter with a fourth down, five-yard touchdown pass to halfback Billy Hughes. Sophomore Jerry Nettles, who still looks like the hottest article the Charleston ball club has come up with in a long time, directed the other two touchdown drives. Ray Woodworth slammed over from the two for a second-quarter score, and raced four yards for the other.

Employing a weird, semi-I formation on the extra point attempts, the Cadets made good on all three tries. Guererri passed to Hughes for one while Nettles hit Paul Maguire with a pass and ran another on the option.

…Workhorse for the Bulldogs was Joe Chefalo, the Southern Conference’s No. 2 rusher. Joe picked up 60 yards on nine carries…Big Barry Thomas carried six times for 49 yards.

– The News and Courier, October 26, 1958

The Citadel vs. Furman, to be played at Paladin Stadium in Greenville, South Carolina, with kickoff at 2:00 pm ET on November 11, 2017.

The game will be streamed on ESPN3.com. Bob Mihalic will handle play-by-play, while Sam Wyche supplies the analysis and Scott Cole reports from the sideline.

The contest can be heard on radio via the various affiliates of The Citadel Sports Network. WQNT-1450 AM [audio link], originating in Charleston, will be the flagship station. 

Mike Legg (the “Voice of the Bulldogs”) will call the action alongside analyst Lee Glaze.

The Citadel Sports Network — 2017 Affiliates

Charleston: WQNT 1450AM/92.1 FM/102.1 FM (Flagship)
Columbia: WQXL 1470AM/95.9FM
Greenville: WLFJ 92.9FM/660AM
Sumter: WDXY 1240AM/105.9FM

Links of interest:

– Game preview, The Post and Courier

– Game notes from The Citadel and Furman

– SoCon weekly release

– Preview on The Citadel’s website

– Preview on Furman’s website

– FCS Coaches’ poll (The Citadel is receiving votes, and would be ranked #32 if the poll went that far)

– Brent Thompson’s 11/7 press conference, including comments from Jonathan King and Dominique Allen  (video)

– Brent Thompson’s 11/8 radio show (video)

– Game story from Furman-Western Carolina [played two weeks ago; Paladins had a bye last week]

– ESPN3 replay of Furman-Western Carolina (video)

A quick turnaround for Furman

Freshmen linebackers have been getting it done for the Paladins

– My review of last week’s game against Western Carolina

– Link to ESPN3’s streaming coverage of The Citadel-Furman

Non-football links:

AD Jim Senter is a finalist for the same position at UTEP

Alumnus advances to further action (?) on the TV show “The Voice”

My sort-of preview of the upcoming basketball season for The Citadel

From Jeff Hartsell’s article on Furman’s season:

Attendance at Paladin Stadium is up about 25 percent this year over last, from 5,771 to 7,192 per game.

Furman home attendance this season:

  • Elon (September 9): 6,342
  • ETSU (September 20): 7,104
  • VMI (October 14): 7,216
  • Mercer (October 21, Homecoming): 8,108

Attendance at Paladin Stadium the last three times The Citadel has been Furman’s opponent:

  • 2010: 12,791
  • 2012: 8,127
  • 2015: 12,124

Future non-conference opponents for the Paladins:

  • 2018: Furman plays Clemson
  • 2019: Furman plays Georgia State and Virginia Tech (and also plays at Kennesaw State in a return meeting)
  • 2020: Furman plays Tennessee
  • 2021: Furman plays North Carolina State
  • 2022: Furman plays Clemson
  • 2024: Furman plays Mississippi

This will be the 40th time Furman and The Citadel have met in the month of November. The two schools have met on the gridiron in October 52 times, and in September on five occasions.

The Bulldogs are 15-23-1 against the Paladins in November, but have won the last four matchups held in the eleventh month. Next season, the two teams will meet on October 27 in Charleston.

This season, Furman is 6-3, 5-1 in the SoCon. After losing three games to start the 2017 campaign, the Paladins have won six straight contests.

Furman is a contender for an FCS playoff berth. The Paladins still have a slim chance at the automatic bid out of the SoCon, although that possibility will evaporate if Wofford wins at VMI on Saturday.

While an 8-3 record would almost certainly be more than good enough to get an at-large bid, I tend to doubt Furman will make the postseason with a 7-4 record. Thus, the Paladins probably have to win their final two games of the season to keep playing. After hosting The Citadel, FU closes its regular season with a matchup at Samford.

Furman’s less-than-great shot at a playoff bid if it finishes 7-4 has almost as much to do with the way the Paladins’ schedule played out as it does the actual losses.

At 0-3, Furman was nowhere near the postseason; then, as the Paladins began their winning streak, they didn’t have a statement victory to make people (including FCS poll voters) really sit up and take notice. Colgate, ETSU, a struggling UTC squad, VMI…it was hard for Furman to get what might be called “poll momentum”.

The last two weeks have been better on that front, particularly the win at Western Carolina. Furman is now ranked in the STATS poll, but is still in the “receiving votes” category in the FCS Coaches’ Poll.

The problem is that a loss in either of its last two games would likely leave Furman out of the rankings in both major polls. While the polls aren’t the end-all and be-all in terms of playoff placement, they tend to drive the narrative, and my sense is historically that has had an effect on the selection committee.

Having said that, there could well be a couple of unranked teams that wind up getting at-large spots; in fact, I think the odds are good that at least one such team will receive a bid. However, a 4-loss team from the SoCon (that may also be the fourth team from the league in the pecking order) is not going to be in a good position.

I could be wrong about all of the above, of course, particularly since there is still a lot of football to be played.

Key stats for Furman after nine games:

Furman Opponents
Points per game 34.4 23.3
Rushing yardage 2187 1245
Average per rush 4.7 3.8
Average per game 243 138.3
TDs rushing 26 13
Passing yardage 1648 2143
Comp-Att-Int 96-155-3 193-292-8
Average per pass 10.6 7.3
TDs passing 14 13
Total offense 3835 3388
Total plays 623 620
Yards per play 6.2 5.5
Kick returns-yards 20-436 32-744
Punt returns-yards 8-21 15-129
Fumbles/lost 14-8 9-7
Avg penalties/penalty yards per game 3.6/34.7 7.3/59.9
Net punt average 35.6 39.7
Time of possession/game 30:36 29:24
3rd down conversions 65/130 41/119
3rd down conversion rate 50.0% 34.5%
Sacks by-yards 24-159 5-29
Field goals-attempts 6-9 7-11
Red Zone touchdown rate (26-34) 76.5% (19-32) 59.4%
  • Furman is 19th nationally in scoring offense, and 43rd in scoring defense
  • The Paladins are 10th in rushing offense, 30th in rushing yards per play
  • FU is 46th in rushing defense, 47th in rushing yards allowed per play
  • The Paladins are 2nd in FCS in offensive pass efficiency; they are 91st in pass efficiency defense
  • Furman is 6th-best in FCS in offensive third down conversion rate, and 34th in defensive third down conversion rate
  • FU commits the second-fewest penalties per game in the division (VMI leads in that category)
  • Furman’s kick return defense is 109th nationally (out of 123 teams)
  • FU is 68th in FCS in net punting
  • The Paladins are 48th in time of possession and tied for 34th in turnover margin

Statistics of note for The Citadel through nine games:

The Citadel Opponents
Points per game 23.8 19.2
Rushing yardage 2940 1108
Average per rush 5.3 4.0
Average per game 326.7 123.1
TDs rushing 21 13
Passing yardage 758 1587
Comp-Att-Int 43-112-6 142-236-11
Average per pass 6.8 6.7
TDs passing 7 10
Total offense 3698 2695
Total plays 664 512
Yards per play 5.6 5.3
Kick returns-yards 21-402 21-547
Punt returns-yards 18-164 8-55
Fumbles/lost 18/7 12/6
Avg penalties/penalty yards per game 4.6/39.3 3.1/30.7
Net punt average 35.9 33.9
Time of possession/game 34:46 25:14
3rd down conversions 65/142 31/98
3rd down conversion rate 45.8% 31.6%
Sacks by-yards 16-87 5-33
Field goals-attempts 5-13 4-6
Red Zone touchdown rate (20-39) 51.3% (14-20) 70.0%
  • The Citadel is 67th nationally in scoring offense, and 20th in scoring defense
  • The Bulldogs are 2nd in rushing offense (behind only Kennesaw State), and 13th in rushing yards per play
  • The Citadel is 31st in rushing defense, 72nd in rushing yards allowed per play
  • Offensive pass efficiency has not been a strength of the Bulldogs, ranking 105th nationally; the team is 45th in pass efficiency defense
  • The Citadel is 13th-best in FCS in offensive third down conversion rate, and 15th in defensive third down conversion rate, one of the five best third-down rate combos in the division
  • The Bulldogs commit the 10th-fewest penalties per game in the division (tied with Samford for 10th)
  • The Citadel’s kick return defense is 120th nationally (out of 123 teams)
  • Net punting has been inconsistent at times, but overall The Citadel is 61st nationally in that category
  • The Bulldogs are 1st in FCS in time of possession and (like Furman) are tied for 34th in turnover margin

Rushing yardage accounts for 57.0% of Furman’s total offense. The Paladins actually run the ball from scrimmage 74.3% of the time, however (not including sacks).

P.J. Blazejowski (6’0″, 195 lbs.) has somehow only started 22 career games for Furman, despite the fact that the senior quarterback from St. Augustine has seemingly been on the Paladins’ roster since 1995. Blazejowski may be best remembered by fans of The Citadel for his performance in the 2014 game between the two teams, when he accounted for 382 total yards in a losing effort.

This season, Blazejowski is completing 61.2% of his passes, averaging an outstanding 10.9 yards per attempt, with 14 touchdown tosses against only three interceptions.

Furman has plenty of guys who will carry the ball, from a variety of formations. Blazejowski actually ranks fourth on the team in rushing from the QB position.

The three backs ahead of him on the rushing yardage list are all good, including leading rusher Antonio Wilcox (6’1″, 230 lbs.), who has impressed Brent Thompson. “I really like the way Wilcox runs,” was the coach’s largely unprompted comment on his radio show. The senior had 201 yards and a TD against Western Carolina two weeks ago.

Redshirt junior Kealand Dirks (6’0″, 244 lbs.) has three 100-yard rushing games in his last five contests, while Darius Morehead (5’9″, 180 lbs.), a redshirt freshman from Nashville, is averaging 6.2 yards per carry.

Furman’s projected starters on the offensive line average 6’4″, 288 lbs. Starting center Matthew Schmidt (6’3″, 290 lbs.) was a preseason first team All-SoCon selection. Schmidt and fellow senior Terrell Bush (6’4″, 298 lbs.), the left guard, have combined to start 62 games for the Paladins.

Eleven different Furman players have caught passes this year. Leading that list (in terms of receptions and yardage) is redshirt senior Logan McCarter (6’2″, 189 lbs.), who is averaging 20.2 yards per catch.

In the 2015 game between the two teams at Paladin Stadium, McCarter actually threw a TD pass, so the Bulldogs need to be aware of that specific brand of trickery.

Thomas Gordon (6’0″, 174 lbs.) is a sophomore from Charlotte capable of making big plays. The sophomore from Charlotte had a 77-yard TD reception against Elon earlier this season. Last year, he caught an 83-yard touchdown pass versus VMI.

Gordon also serves as Furman’s primary kick and punt returner.

Furman has often had impact players at tight end, and that is certainly true this year. Andy Schumpert (6’5″, 202 lbs.) is putting together a strong case for all-conference honors. The senior has seven touchdown receptions this season, including six in his last five games.

Starting noseguard Jaylan Reid (5’11”, 270 lbs.) is a force in the middle of the Paladins’ defensive line. The redshirt junior from Marietta had seven tackles versus Mercer three weeks ago.

Reid, who is the reigning SoCon champ in the shotput, has five tackles for loss this season, and five quarterback hurries as well. Reid had a good game against The Citadel last year, registering six stops and a forced fumble.

Two freshmen linebackers have given Furman a lot of production. Reynard Ellis (6’1″, 227 lbs.) was playing high school football in Birmingham at this time last season. Right now, he is Furman’s second-leading tackler (with 57) and is also one of six different Paladins with at least one interception.

Fellow true freshman Elijah McKoy (6’2″, 218 lbs.) is third on the team in tackles, with 55. McKoy was originally recruited by Furman as a safety.

Free safety Bryan Okeh (6’4″, 212 lbs.) leads the Paladins in tackles this season, with 60. That includes a 14-tackle effort by the sophomore against Western Carolina. There aren’t too many 6’4″ free safeties roaming the secondary for an FCS team.

Strong safety Aaquil Annoor (5’10”, 171 lbs.), a junior from Nashville, was a preseason second-team All-SoCon pick. So far this year, Annoor has two interceptions, two forced fumbles, and 1 1/2 sacks.

Furman placekicker Grayson Atkins (5’10”, 184 lbs.) is 6 for 9 on field goal attempts. The freshman had two 46-yard field goals against North Carolina State. Atkins has made all 40 of his PATs.

Jon Croft Hollingsworth (5’11”, 161 lbs.), who was the Paladins’ main placekicker for the previous three seasons, is now Furman’s kickoff specialist. He remains the team’s punter, however.

Odds and ends:

– The weather forecast for Saturday in Greenville, per the National Weather Service: sunny, with an expected high of 51 degrees. The low on Saturday night will be 33 degrees.

– Per one source that deals in such matters, Furman is a 13-point favorite over The Citadel. The over/under is 52 1/2.

– Other lines involving SoCon teams: Western Carolina is a 2 1/2 point favorite over Mercer; Wofford is a 30-point favorite at VMI; and Samford is a 19 1/2 point favorite over East Tennessee State. Chattanooga is off this week.

Around the Palmetto State, Clemson is a 16-point favorite against Florida State; South Carolina is a 7 1/2 point favorite versus Florida; Coastal Carolina is a 17 1/2 point underdog at Troy; Presbyterian is a 17 1/2 point underdog at Liberty; South Carolina State is a 2 1/2 point favorite over Hampton; and Charleston Southern is a 5 1/2 point underdog at Kennesaw State.

– Massey Ratings: The Citadel is ranked 52nd in FCS (out of 124 teams), a drop of five spots from last week.

Furman is ranked 18th in FCS, falling two places from last week. Overall (all college teams ranked), The Citadel is 213th, while Furman is 123rd.

Massey projects a final score of Furman 31, The Citadel 17. The Bulldogs are given a 14% chance of winning.

Other FCS rankings in Massey of note: Wofford is 21st (unchanged from last week), Samford is 24th (up nine spots), Western Carolina is 32nd (up three places), Mercer is 40th (down six spots), Charleston Southern is 49th, Chattanooga is 67th (down one spot), East Tennessee State is 71st (down one spot), Presbyterian is 91st, South Carolina State is 97th, and VMI is 116th (down one spot).

The FCS top five in Massey’s rankings, in order: James Madison, North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Western Illinois, and Northern Iowa.

– Since 1911, The Citadel has a 5-8 record in games played on November 11. Four of those five wins came in Charleston; one of them was the memorable 19-7 victory over South Carolina at Johnson Hagood Stadium in 1950.

The only road victory on that date in The Citadel’s football history came in 1972, when the Bulldogs defeated Furman 19-13 at Sirrine Stadium. A few tidbits from that contest:

  • It was Furman coach Bob King’s last game in charge of the Paladins after 15 seasons
  • The game was delayed for several minutes in the first quarter when the yardage chain broke
  • Harry Lynch, questionable to play after suffering broken ribs in the previous week’s game, started at quarterback for The Citadel and scored two touchdowns
  • Bob Carson rushed for 102 yards, including a 58-yard TD run
  • The Bulldogs had two running backs hit the century mark, as Jon Hall ran for an even 100 yards

– Among Furman’s notable graduates are Boston Pops conductor Keith Lockhart, physicist Charles Townes, and journalist Eleanor Beardsley.

– Furman has worn white jerseys in each of its last four games against The Citadel. I’m guessing that the Paladins will don purple tops on Saturday.

– The roster for Furman (per its website) includes 29 players from the State of Georgia. Other states represented: South Carolina (19 players), North Carolina (13), Tennessee (11), Florida (10), Alabama (6), and one each from Massachusetts, Ohio, and Virginia.

The nineteen Paladins from the Palmetto State attended fifteen different high schools. Three players went to Dreher High School in Columbia; Wren High School and St. Joseph’s Catholic School both have two alums on the FU roster.

Shockingly, none of Furman’s South Carolina-based players attended legendary pigskin powerhouse Orangeburg-Wilkinson High School. There is no question that Clay Hendrix will be looking to change that; otherwise, Furman’s recent struggles on the gridiron will definitely resurface again.

– The Citadel’s geographic roster breakdown (per the school’s website) is as follows: South Carolina (47 players), Georgia (29), Florida (6), North Carolina (5), Alabama (4), Texas (4), Pennsylvania (3), Tennessee (2), New York (2), and one each from Louisiana, Michigan, Virginia, and West Virginia.

– The Citadel’s two-deep for the Western Carolina game includes no changes on offense or defense, the fifth consecutive week that has been the case. On special teams, Cam Jackson and Raleigh Webb are now listed as the primary kick returners. Joshua Roides is listed as the backup at placekicker and punter, while Tyler Davis is the emergency long snapper (which I suspect may have already been the case; it’s just noted on the depth chart now).

It should be noted that Josh LeBlanc did not play last week due to injury and is probably questionable for the game on Saturday. The same is true for Kailik Williams, who was only able to take part in about five plays against Western Carolina. Both are listed as starters on the two-deep.

– Several busloads of cadets, mostly freshmen, are expected to make the trip to Greenville on Saturday to cheer on the Bulldogs. In 2015, about eight busloads of freshmen made plenty of noise while watching The Citadel’s 38-17 victory that afternoon.

This was originally going to be the second road football excursion for the freshmen during the season, but Hurricane Irma put the kibosh on an anticipated trip to Samford.

–  Don Powers, for five seasons the head football coach at The Citadel, will be honored at Western Carolina’s home game this Saturday. Powers, a graduate of WCU, is the latest inductee into that school’s athletic hall of fame.

Most observers expect Furman to win on Saturday, and with relative ease. The Paladins are playing well and have a great deal of confidence, while the Bulldogs are coming off what in some ways was their most disappointing performance in the last three years.

The reasons that Furman should win are many. The Paladins are playing at home; they have won six straight games; the team is motivated because a potential playoff bid is in the offing; the Paladins are also motivated because The Citadel has beaten Furman three years in a row; FU defensive coordinator Chad Staggs knows how to defend The Citadel’s offense and will always stop it; the Bulldogs are coming off a tough loss, and could be without key defensive stalwart Kailik Williams; etc., etc., etc.

I offer one argument against all that. I think it’s a good argument, though.

There are still plenty of players on The Citadel’s roster who have been a part of two league championships. They didn’t forget how to win. They have a lot of pride. They’ve still got a chance to have a winning season, and popping a purple balloon would also be a very enjoyable way to end the SoCon schedule.

I think the Bulldogs will be ready to play on Saturday. I’m sure the Paladins are going to be prepared as well. That’s fine.

Kickoff is just a few hours away.

McAlister Musings, 2017-18: Time for some really fast hoops (hopefully with winning involved)

Links of interest:

Season preview, The Post and Courier

Bulldogs add freshmen to mix

School website preview

League preview, The Post and Courier (The Citadel is picked to finish 7th in the SoCon, out of 10 teams)

Preseason league polls and preseason all-SoCon team (The Citadel is tied for 7th in the coaches’ poll and 8th in the media poll)

NBC Sports league preview (The Citadel is picked to finish 9th)

Blue Ribbon yearbook league preview [not online] (The Citadel is picked to finish 8th)

CBS Sports all-Division I preseason rankings (The Citadel is picked 248th out of 351 D-1 teams, 7th in the SoCon)

Kenpom.com preseason rankings (The Citadel is picked 247th out of 351 D-1 teams, 8th in the SoCon)

ESPN “BPI” preseason rankings (The Citadel is picked 243rd out of 351 D-1 teams, 7th in the SoCon)

2017-18 schedule

2017-18 “Quick Facts”

2017-18 “Hype Video”

Box score of exhibition game at Lenoir-Rhyne (The Citadel lost 97-83)

Box score of exhibition game versus Coker (The Citadel won 122-98)

Hey, it’s time for basketball!

 

No, seriously, it is!

This isn’t really a detailed preview. It is more just an acknowledgement that the season is starting.

A few quick points:

– The Citadel isn’t picked last in the league in any preseason poll, and is generally slotted in the 7-8 range (out of 10 SoCon teams). That’s a step up from recent seasons.

– While the team will still be quite young (no seniors), and a lot of freshmen are on the scene (six), there is actually a lot of returning experience.

When taking into account last year’s numbers, here is what The Citadel has coming back in terms of the various statistical categories, by percentage:

  • Starts: 70.3%
  • Minutes: 69.5%
  • Field goal attempts: 75.6%
  • 3-point field goal attempts: 79.0%
  • Free throw attempts: 75.3%
  • Offensive rebounds: 75.7%
  • Defensive rebounds: 68.6%
  • Total rebounds: 71.2%
  • Fouls: 68.4%
  • Assists: 71.8%
  • Blocks: 64.7%
  • Steals: 73.9%
  • Points: 74.8%

From the school preview release:

Last season, the Bulldogs played at a fast pace and scored in bunches, leading the nation in points per game and ranking in the top-10 in the nation in six other statistical categories. This year, head coach Duggar Baucom wants his young squad to move even faster and score even more.

“We’re going to try to play a little bit faster than we did last season. Last year, we isolated players a little bit more, forcing them to create their own shots, but this year we’re hoping that the offense will create shots for the players,” Baucom said. “The players are getting used to it. It’s a little bit of a style change for the guys who were here last year, but hopefully it will help us play faster and score some more points.”

If The Citadel is really going to play faster this season, that is going to be noteworthy.

Last year, the Bulldogs were second nationally in both adjusted and raw tempo, averaging a shade over 80 possessions per game. I don’t know what Baucom has in mind in terms of a possessions per game average, but he hasn’t had a team with an adjusted tempo significantly higher than last season’s outfit since 2010 (when his VMI team averaged 85 possessions per game).

Baucom’s 2007 squad at VMI is the last Division I team to average over 90 possessions per game against D-1 opponents. That team lost 19 games but also got to the final of the Big South tournament, after the coach “dialed down” the pace during the conference tourney.

If The Citadel could come even close to replicating the pace of the 2007 Keydets with the current talent on the Bulldog roster, that might really be something to watch.

It could be wildly exciting. It could also be a train wreck.

Early-season schedule (first three games)…

Oglethorpe, November 10 at McAlister Field House, 3:00 pm (SoCon Digital Network)

Oglethorpe is a Division III school located in north Atlanta that went 10-16 last season. The team nickname is the Stormy Petrels, a truly excellent moniker.

While it is a regular season game for The Citadel, it is actually considered an exhibition matchup for Oglethorpe. Yes, that is a bit confusing, but not particularly unusual.

The Stormy Petrels did not play a D-1 school last season, and last faced a team in that division during the 2015-16 campaign, when they played Georgia State (another example of a regular season game for the D-1 team, but an exhibition for Oglethorpe). Georgia State won that contest 85-34.

During the 2012-13 season, Oglethorpe (which was 17-10 that year) played Mercer and lost 70-25 in another regular season/exhibition matchup.

Virginia Tech, November 12 at Cassell Coliseum in Blacksburg, VA, 7:00 pm (ACC Digital Network)

The Hokies defeated The Citadel 113-71 last season in Blacksburg, one of the 22 wins Virginia Tech had en route to an NCAA tournament appearance. Buzz Williams should have another good team again this season, despite losing the two top scorers off that squad.

Most outlets believe the Hokies will finish in the top half of the ACC. The Blue Ribbon yearbook gave VT a #25 preseason national ranking.

While Virginia Tech’s adjusted tempo in 2016-17 hovered around the national average, the Hokies were more than happy to run with the Bulldogs in last year’s matchup. Virginia Tech had 89 possessions in the contest, the most it had in any game.

The Hokies open this season on Friday with a home game versus Detroit. As for the contest against The Citadel, Kenpom projects Virginia Tech to win 100-80, with the Bulldogs given a 4% chance of pulling the upset.

North Carolina A&T, November 15 at Corbett Sports Center in Greensboro, NC, 7:00 pm

Simply put, the Aggies were one of the worst teams in Division I last season. North Carolina A&T won just three games all year (only one versus a D-1 opponent) and finished with an RPI of 350, next-to-last in the division.

However, this game won’t necessarily be easy for the Bulldogs. For one thing, the Aggies’ only D-1 win actually came against a very solid North Carolina Central squad that won the MEAC regular-season and tournament titles. Based on that result alone, there is clearly some talent on the roster.

Also, North Carolina A&T had three players sit out last season as transfers. All of them will be eligible to play this season, as will a graduate transfer from Georgia Southern, combo guard Devante Boykins.

On the other hand, last year’s leading scorer for the Aggies transferred to North Carolina State.

Before hosting The Citadel, North Carolina A&T will play at Clemson on November 12. It opens the season with a non-D1 game against Greensboro College.

Kenpom projects The Citadel to prevail by an 88-80 score, with a win probability of 77%.

This could be a fun year for the Bulldogs. I’m ready for some hoops.

Game Review, 2017: Western Carolina

Links of interest:

Game story, The Post and Courier

Notes section, The Post and Courier: “Instant replay comes back to bite Bulldogs”

Photo gallery, The Post and Courier

By the numbers, The Post and Courier

SoCon sticking with flawed instant replay “rollout”

School release

Box score

Game highlights (video)

Saturday was not a good day for The Citadel. Five offensive turnovers (admittedly, just four in most SoCon stadiums) doomed the Bulldogs, along with a couple of big plays given up by the defense.

Those turnovers cost The Citadel the contest; there is no doubt about that. I also don’t think you can put the lost opportunities in the game down to youth and inexperience, as that wasn’t really the case. It made the offensive follies (particularly those in the red zone) all the more disappointing.

The Citadel had a good day rushing the football, controlled the clock (almost a 15-minute edge in time of possession), and finished 8 of 16 on third down attempts.

In addition, the special teams unit blocked two WCU punts and forced the Catamounts to “self-block” a third; that, against a team that had come into the game 4th nationally in net punting.

All of that should have been more than enough to win the game. It wasn’t.

I have rarely felt more frustrated after a game than I was last Saturday. Much of that frustration was related to the Bulldogs’ on-field play.

However, the instant replay issue has to be discussed. It cannot simply be ignored, because it hurt The Citadel on Saturday. Also, the league’s position and general attitude towards this aspect of its game administration leaves a lot to be desired.

First, let me quote a couple of things I’ve written before, just to prove this isn’t after-the-fact complaining.

From October 2016, after it was announced the league would not have replay until at least 2018:

The SoCon probably needs to have instant replay sooner rather than later, if only to have the same standard officiating procedures as the rest of FCS, but no one should be under the impression that replay will be a panacea. At times, replay has simply added another layer of error to the proceedings.

Sure, you would like to think that with replay, Kailik Williams’ strip/recovery in the first quarter versus Wofford would have resulted in The Citadel gaining possession of the football, but we’ve all seen that kind of play occasionally upheld anyway because of a “down by contact” ruling (or because the whistle blew). Rudder Brown’s catch in the overtime period might have been tagged as “inconclusive”, and Jorian Jordan’s touchdown-that-wasn’t may have suffered the same fate, depending on the mood of the official in the booth.

Replay aside, what really needs to happen is that the league needs to significantly improve its on-field officiating. That is what the conference’s players, coaches, and fans deserve, rather than ludicrous decisions like (just to mention one example) this ridiculous call against Mercer earlier in the season in a game versus Tennessee Tech.

Then, the league decided it would have instant replay for the 2017 season, but that schools wouldn’t actually have to implement it until 2019. This led to only two schools (Mercer and The Citadel) having a system in place for this year. As I said last month:

Essentially, league games are being played under two different sets of rules this year, depending on whether or not a stadium has instant replay. I’ve said this before, but it is worth repeating: the decision by the SoCon to let conference schools off the hook for setting up replay until (at least) 2019 was dubious at best.

As soon as the league established this haphazard approach to instant replay, it was inevitable that it would lead to inequities. The Citadel got burned on Saturday because it was one of the two schools that actually did what the league wanted (an outcome that was oh-so-predictable).

If the game had been played in Cullowhee, Cam Jackson’s TD would have counted. Instead, game momentum changed in a major way, and not in The Citadel’s favor.

I bolded a couple of sentences above because I think they are relevant to the decision made on Saturday. Jeff Hartsell of The Post and Courier was good enough to ask the league a few questions about the replay situation.

Let’s go through a few things from that article…

According to SoCon commissioner Iamarino, the league’s game report said play was stopped for two minutes and 14 seconds from the time the official announced the play was under review until the review was concluded. A review of the ESPN3 broadcast put the time of the replay review at 3:56.

So, according to the commissioner, the game report included something that was demonstrably false, namely the length of time of the review. That really inspires confidence, doesn’t it?

Iamarino did concede that the review was “a bit longer than most.” However, he insisted that “the main objective for having replay in the stadium is getting the call right. The replay official concluded he had indisputable evidence to overturn the call of a touchdown.”

If it had really been indisputable, why did it take so long for the replay official to make the call? There was no real answer for that. (It is also worth noting the official on the field who signaled touchdown was actually in perfect position to make the call, something you can’t always say while watching a SoCon game.)

Other close calls haven’t taken nearly as long to review, or apparently haven’t been reviewed at all. Some of those might have benefited the Bulldogs with a longer look, too (a muffed punt in the Mercer game comes to mind).

That inconsistent use of instant replay is a major problem for the league. Of course, the lack of replay at seven of the nine league stadiums is the bigger issue.

Iamarino said he hopes that “five or six” SoCon schools are replay-ready by next season.

“The vast majority of FCS conferences have gradually had their institutions implement replay,” he said. “The Missouri Valley, CAA, Big South, Patriot League are all examples of conferences that had a staggered adoption of replay. The Southland is the one FCS conference I can think of that has gone all in at once.

“So what we are doing is not unusual at all. I hope we’ll have five or six on board next year and by 2019 all will be compliant.”

Just because other leagues decided to have different sets of rules depending on locale doesn’t mean the Southern Conference should repeat their mistake.

Iamarino “hopes” the league will have “five or six” schools with instant replay next year. That isn’t good enough, in my opinion. It seems to me that based on his statement, there is even a possibility that when 2018 rolls around, Mercer and The Citadel will still be the only schools with instant replay.

Personally, I don’t think The Citadel should cut on its system again until the entire league has instant replay. I know that isn’t going to happen, though.

Instead, we’re going to continue to see games decided in part on whether or not the stadium has instant replay. We’ll probably continue to see games where an overzealous replay official puts his or her stamp on the game in a negative way, too.

A few other items from the game:

– Was it just me, or was the speaker system louder (and thus more painful on the ears) than usual? Maybe it was just me.

– I think playing a home contest after the Homecoming game tends to lead to less attendance for that final matchup at Johnson Hagood Stadium. I suspect a fair amount of people bag the last game of the home schedule in that situation.

Next year, that won’t be an issue (if it actually is an issue), because the Bulldogs’ home finale, which is against Samford, is the Homecoming game.

– I was a little surprised Western Carolina didn’t bring more fans. The Catamounts are having a nice season, and are a relatively entertaining squad to boot. Maybe the home loss to Furman last week led to fewer people making the trip to Charleston.

– I’ll probably mention this next year before the first home game, but on my personal list of things I would like to see more of at Johnson Hagood Stadium: flags.

Yes, we have plenty of flags already. Let’s have even more of them! “Big Red” spirit flags, the D-O-G-S flags, every kind of flag. On the field and in the stands. Big, obnoxious flags, if at all possible.

I must admit this idea was inspired by the Curva Sud when I watched Roma play Udinese in September. I think half of the fans in that section of the Stadio Olimpico were waving giant flags before the game. They waved them after each goal, too, and at the conclusion of the match.

On the other hand, Johnson Hagood Stadium is a tobacco-free facility, and in that respect is definitely superior to Stadio Olimpico…

I’ll have my preview of the Furman game late Thursday night. The last two previews of this season probably won’t be quite as long as my usual production, which won’t hurt anyone’s feelings.

Here are this week’s pictures. They are not annotated, though they are in order (in terms of game action shots).