Revisiting college football of the 1970s (and early 1980s) with 21st-century statistics

Just a quick, somewhat nerdy post to pass the time before the opening kickoff…

One great thing about college football is its long and often well-documented history. There are a lot of stories, and a lot of ways to tell those stories — including using statistics to drive the narrative.

I’ve enjoyed reading Bill Connelly’s series of posts at SBNation that look back at college football over the past 40+ years, including his ranking of teams based on their estimated S&P ratings in each given season (dating back to 1970). I know a fair bit about the history of the sport, but I’ve learned more than a few new things perusing these articles.

If you want to get up to speed on what major college football was like in the latter part of the 20th century, you could do a lot worse than to read these yearly summaries. That includes The Citadel’s history in I-A.

Because the Southern Conference did not move to I-AA until 1982, The Citadel is included in the ratings from 1970 (the earliest year Connelly has written about so far) until 1981. So are the other SoCon teams of that era, along with the Ivy League squads and several other schools that are currently members of what is now known as the FCS. There is also a smattering of schools that no longer play football (Cal State-Los Angeles, Wichita State, and Tampa, just to name three of them).

Comparing the smaller schools to major-conference squads is not an easy exercise, and I’m not saying any ratings system can capture the similarities (or the differences). I think it’s worthwhile to take a look at the numbers, though.

Below is a summary of each year from 1970 to 1981, including the rankings (not ratings) for The Citadel and a selection of other schools for each season.

– 1970 (123 Division I schools)

  • The Citadel (ranking of 106)
  • Dartmouth 5
  • Toledo 12
  • Air Force 21
  • South Carolina 37
  • Army 85
  • Clemson 86
  • Navy 96
  • Maryland 105
  • Furman 109
  • Rutgers 114
  • Davidson 116
  • VMI 122
  • Holy Cross 123

Yes, Dartmouth is fifth in the estimated S&P+ rankings for 1970. That is almost certainly too high (as Connelly notes, schedule connectivity is an issue when it comes to these types of ratings), but the Big Green did finish the regular season ranked 14th in the AP poll (and also won the Lambert Trophy).

Nebraska (AP) and Texas (UPI) split the mythical national championship. It was also a great year for Toledo (12-0). For VMI (1-10) and Holy Cross (0-10-1), not so much.

– 1971 (128 Division I schools)

  • The Citadel (ranking of 100)
  • Villanova 25
  • Cornell 26
  • South Carolina 49
  • Clemson 80
  • Navy 95
  • Army 98
  • SMU 99
  • Maryland 101
  • East Carolina 106
  • North Carolina State 116
  • Furman 118
  • VMI 122
  • Baylor 123
  • Davidson 125

It is a bit jarring to see Baylor rated below VMI and just ahead of Davidson, but the Bears (1-9) were at rock-bottom in 1971. (At least, rock-bottom in terms of on-the-field results.)

Nebraska, with one of the all-time great teams, finished #1 in both major polls. Colorado finished third in the Big 8…and third in the AP poll.

– 1972 (127 Division I schools)

  • The Citadel (ranking of 105)
  • Dartmouth 20
  • Yale 25
  • Tampa 26
  • Baylor 35
  • South Carolina 84
  • Clemson 87
  • Wisconsin 103
  • Northwestern 106
  • VMI 115
  • Wake Forest 116
  • Davidson 120
  • Cincinnati 122
  • Furman 125
  • Appalachian State 127

It was another banner year for Dartmouth and Yale. Were they top-25 good? Probably not, but they were very solid programs.

Tampa was no joke, either, winning ten games and the Tangerine Bowl, beating Kent State. Among the players in that bowl game, by the way: John Matuszak, Freddie Solomon, and Paul (Mr. Wonderful) Orndorff, who all suited up for the Spartans; and Jack Lambert, Gerald Tinker, Gary Pinkel, and Nick Saban, all of whom played for the Golden Flashes.

That group includes three extremely notable NFL players with a combined eight Super Bowl titles between them; a well-known professional wrestler; an Olympic gold medalist; the all-time winningest coach at two different D-1 schools; and a former head coach of the Miami Dolphins.

You may have noticed Baylor leaped in the rankings from 123rd to 35th in one season. The 1972 campaign was Grant Teaff’s first season on the Brazos; in 1974, Baylor would win the Southwest Conference for the first time in 50 years. Not a bad coach, that fellow.

In 1972, Southern California went wire-to-wire to claim the top spot in the AP poll (and every other poll that mattered that year).

– 1973 (129 Division I schools)

  • The Citadel (ranking of 115)
  • Kent State 9
  • North Carolina State 15
  • Miami (OH) 17
  • East Carolina 20
  • Richmond 25
  • South Carolina 42
  • Navy 58
  • Furman 80
  • Clemson 87
  • Washington 114
  • Fresno State 116
  • Wake Forest 117
  • VMI 119
  • Army 124

A very weird year, 1973. Notre Dame wound up winning the AP title; Alabama won the UPI crown, but this was the last year UPI voted before the bowls — and Notre Dame beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl following the regular season. Oklahoma is ranked first in the estimated S&P ratings, but the Sooners were on probation.

Then you had the Michigan-Ohio State tie and the infamous Big 10 vote that sent the Buckeyes to the Rose Bowl…

Miami of Ohio was unbeaten in 1973, while Kent State was a very impressive 9-2. It was a nice year for the MAC.

– 1974 (129 Division I schools)

  • The Citadel (ranking of 104)
  • Miami (OH) 4
  • Yale 29
  • Vanderbilt 32
  • Clemson 42
  • Navy 78
  • Florida State 85
  • VMI 86
  • South Carolina 94
  • Army 109
  • Furman 113
  • TCU 118
  • Northwestern 120
  • Oregon 123
  • Utah 127

Miami of Ohio was 10-0-1, tying Purdue in its second game of the season, then reeling off nine straight wins, including a Tangerine Bowl victory over Georgia.

Vanderbilt was 7-3-2, with wins over Florida and Mississippi. The second of its two ties came in the Peach Bowl against Texas Tech. Vandy’s coach was Steve Sloan, who left after the season to take the head coaching position at…Texas Tech.

Sloan took several of his assistants with him, one of whom was Bill Parcells. The coach Sloan succeeded at Texas Tech? Jim Carlen, who took the South Carolina job.

Oklahoma, despite being bowl-ineligible, won the AP national title. The UPI poll, which did not include teams on probation, gave the nod to 10-1-1 Southern California.

– 1975 (137 Division I schools)

  • The Citadel (rank of 116)
  • Arkansas State 7
  • Miami of Ohio 19
  • Arizona State 20
  • Rutgers 38
  • Brown 43
  • Navy 48
  • South Carolina 60
  • Air Force 102
  • Furman 105
  • Clemson 114
  • Cornell 117
  • VMI 130
  • Army 131
  • Louisville 136

This was Arkansas State’s first season as a member of Division I, and it basically destroyed the Southland Conference (and a few independents) en route to an 11-0 season. I don’t think it was a top-10 outfit, but Arkansas State did all it could do on the field.

Arizona State finished 12-0 with a Fiesta Bowl win over Nebraska, and #2 in both polls (Oklahoma grabbing the top spot in each). At the time, ASU was in the WAC, not the Pac-10; the modern-day equivalent would probably be a team like Houston finishing second. Would the Sun Devils had made a hypothetical four-team playoff?

Cornell finished 117th in the S&P+ rankings, one spot ahead of The Citadel. In 1976, the Big Red would finish 91st in the rankings. Cornell’s overall record during that two-year stretch was just 3-15, and as a result the school’s AD (future NCAA chief Dick Schultz) fired its head coach, George Seifert.

Seifert’s next head coaching gig was slightly more successful.

Just ahead of The Citadel in the ’75 rankings was Indiana, helmed by Lee Corso. So from 115 to 117 you had a grouping of Corso, Bobby Ross, and Seifert.

– 1976 (137 Division I schools)

  • The Citadel (rank of 68)
  • East Carolina 14
  • Iowa State 19
  • Yale 23
  • William & Mary 26
  • Furman 36
  • South Carolina 38
  • Navy 62
  • Clemson 77
  • Florida State 85
  • Cornell 91
  • VMI 93
  • Army 114
  • Air Force 115
  • Northern Illinois 137

Pittsburgh (12-0) finished second in the estimated S&P+ ratings but #1 in both polls, and the Tony Dorsett-led Panthers deserved the national honors.

1976 was a fine year for the Southern Conference. Among other things, this was one of two years in the 12-year period I’m reviewing that both The Citadel and VMI finished in the top 100 of the S&P+ ratings, with the Bulldogs’ season featuring a victory over Air Force.

In its final year in the league, William & Mary had a solid campaign. The Tribe finished 7-4, including a road sweep of Virginia and Virginia Tech.

East Carolina won the SoCon and ranked 14th in these ratings. The Pirates were 9-2, losing to North Carolina and a resurgent Furman.

– 1977 (145 Division I schools)

  • The Citadel (ranking of 105)
  • Tennessee State 7
  • Grambling State 19
  • Clemson 20
  • Yale 35
  • Navy 45
  • South Carolina 56
  • Army 66
  • VMI 78
  • Tulane 106
  • Virginia 118
  • Air Force 126
  • Furman 129
  • Wake Forest 132
  • Oregon 133

1977 was the first (and only) year the highest-level HBCU programs competed as Division I members in football; the following season, those schools moved to the newly created I-AA level. The lack of schedule connectivity between the HBCUs and the other D-1 schools was even more pronounced than for the Ivy League teams, which tends to be reflected in the ratings.

Having said that, Tennessee State and Grambling State were both tough Tigers to tame. Grambling was led by quarterback Doug Williams, who finished 4th in the Heisman Trophy voting that season (and who would later be a #1 NFL draft pick and Super Bowl MVP). GSU only lost one game in 1977 — to Tennessee State, 26-8. The following spring, TSU had seven players chosen in the first six rounds of the NFL draft.

Notre Dame won the national title, led by a quarterback named Joe Montana. He was something of a clutch performer.

– 1978 (138 Division I schools)

  • The Citadel (ranking of 109)
  • Clemson 14
  • South Carolina 48
  • Navy 52
  • Furman 78
  • Iowa 115
  • Minnesota 117
  • West Virginia 118
  • Illinois 121
  • VMI 124
  • Army 125
  • Boston College 132
  • Vanderbilt 135
  • Air Force 137
  • Northwestern 138

Alabama and Southern California split the title, despite the Trojans beating the Crimson Tide early in the season (at Legion Field!) and finishing with the same number of losses (one).

There were a lot of terrible major-conference teams in 1978, so many that 1-10 Wake Forest didn’t even make my “selected others” listing. The bottom of the Big 10 was particularly bad.

– 1979 (140 Division I schools)

  • The Citadel (ranking of 116)
  • Temple 5
  • Clemson 17
  • North Carolina State 18
  • South Carolina 23
  • McNeese State 34
  • Wake Forest 35
  • Virginia 41
  • Navy 88
  • Furman 107
  • VMI 122
  • Army 126
  • Vanderbilt 128
  • Northwestern 133
  • Air Force 140

The Citadel beat an SEC team in 1979 by two touchdowns but still didn’t get an upward bump in the ratings, because the victim in question was 1-10 Vanderbilt. While Vandy was struggling, though, some other long-suffering programs had some fun this season, led by an ACC school.

Wake Forest won eight games and played in the Tangerine Bowl. Eight of the Demon Deacons’ eleven regular season matchups came against teams that finished with at least seven victories; Wake Forest won five of those eight contests, and also beat 6-5 Georgia in Athens.

Temple went 10-2, losing only to Pittsburgh and Penn State, and won the Garden State Bowl. The Owls weren’t the fifth-best team in the country, but they were a tough out.

Alabama finished #1 in both polls in 1979 with a 12-0 record. The Crimson Tide allowed just 67 points in 12 games, including five shutouts.

– 1980 (138 Division I schools)

  • The Citadel (ranking of 48)
  • McNeese State 31
  • Furman 34
  • Navy 37
  • Clemson 49
  • Villanova 52
  • Yale 57
  • Army 93
  • Georgia Tech 101
  • Air Force 110
  • VMI 111
  • Colorado 123
  • Cincinnati 125
  • Oregon State 132
  • Northwestern 134

Georgia won the national title in 1980, thanks in large part to the phenomenon that was Herschel Walker, freshman running back.

This was The Citadel’s top ranking in the S&P+ ratings during the 1970-1981 time frame. The Bulldogs were 7-4 in 1980, going undefeated at home, with two of the four losses coming to Wake Forest and South Carolina.

It was a good year in general for a lot of smaller programs, including McNeese State. During the 1979 and 1980 seasons, the Cowboys had a combined record of 21-3, losing twice in bowl games…and once to a I-AA school. That second loss (to Northwestern State) doesn’t count against McNeese State in the ratings system (which only accounts for I-A opponents).

– 1981 (137 Division I schools)

  • The Citadel 83
  • Clemson 3
  • Yale 30
  • Navy 36
  • South Carolina 39
  • Furman 90
  • Army 95
  • VMI 97
  • Colorado 101
  • Air Force 107
  • Virginia 111
  • Oregon 114
  • Indiana 122
  • Oregon State 134
  • Northwestern 136

I didn’t realize until recently that Joe Avezzano was the head coach of Oregon State during the early 1980s. Avezzano later became a well-respected special teams coach for the Dallas Cowboys, but his career record in Corvallis was 6-47-2. His 1981 team lost ten straight games after beating Fresno State in the season opener.

Northwestern’s head coach in 1981 was future NFL boss Dennis Green; it was his first year in Evanston. The Wildcats finished 0-11. The next season, Northwestern won three games, and Green was named Big 10 coach of the year.

Oregon State and Northwestern were not easy places to coach in this era.

Clemson won the national title in 1981. While the Tigers were third in the estimated S&P+ ratings, the two teams ahead of it were Penn State (which lost two games) and Pittsburgh (which lost at home to Penn State by 34 points). Clemson beat Nebraska in the Orange Bowl to cement its spot at the top of the AP and UPI polls.

That wraps up this abbreviated review of the 1970-1981 seasons. However, just for fun, here are the final estimated S&P rankings for the seven I-A/FBS schools that The Citadel has beaten since 1982.

  • 1988 Navy: 79th out of 105 I-A schools
  • 1989 Navy: 83rd out of 106 I-A schools
  • 1990 South Carolina: 20th out of 107 I-A schools
  • 1991 Army: 96th out of 107 I-A schools
  • 1992 Army: 95th out of 107 I-A schools
  • 1992 Arkansas: 35th out of 107 I-A schools
  • 2015 South Carolina: 88th out of 128 FBS schools

I was surprised at the ratings for 1990 South Carolina (which finished 6-5) and 1992 Arkansas (3-7-1). That Razorbacks squad did beat Tennessee (which was ranked #4 at the time) in Knoxville later in the season.

Football season is not just getting closer…it’s almost here!

Mission for The Citadel’s football program: follow up an outstanding season with another solid campaign

Other football-related posts from recent weeks:

Inside the numbers: The Citadel’s 2015 run/pass tendencies, per-play averages, 4th-down decision-making…and more!

Updating history: Attendance at Johnson Hagood Stadium, 1964-2015

What teams will the Bulldogs’ opponents play before (and after) facing The Citadel?

Preseason football ratings and rankings, featuring The Citadel (and the rest of the SoCon)

In his fall practice preview article, Jeff Hartsell wrote about issues “the Bulldogs must address if they are to post consecutive winning seasons for the first time since The Citadel had three straight from 1990-92”. Some of those things are obvious, like avoiding injuries and, uh, suspensions.

There is something else The Citadel’s football program must overcome, and that is its own history. I want to briefly highlight what has happened in the past. It hasn’t always been pretty.

Going back to the end of World War II, The Citadel has had fifteen seasons in which it won seven or more games in a season. That includes last year’s nine-win campaign.

In the fourteen prior post-war years in which the Bulldogs won 7+ games, the following season often did not go as well. Only five of those fourteen occasions saw the program celebrate a winning season the next year.

It is not altogether surprising that big-win seasons have not always been followed by an over-.500 campaign. There are a lot of factors at hand, including players lost to graduation, injuries, differences in scheduling, coaching changes, and plain old-fashioned luck, to name but a few.

They all add up to what a sabermetrically-inclined observer might call regression to the mean. Still, five out of fourteen is not a good ratio.

[Keep in mind, I’m not talking about following up every winning season. I’m discussing the years in which the Bulldogs won more than six games. There have been other times when The Citadel has had back-to-back winning seasons (just to give one example, the consecutive 6-5 campaigns in 1975 and 1976), but my focus in this post is on those teams that won 7+ games.]

Since 1946, here are the five seasons of 7+ wins in which the Bulldogs enjoyed a winning season the next year:

1st year Record 2nd year Record
1959 8-2 1960 8-2-1
1960 8-2-1 1961 7-3
1980 7-4 1981 7-3-1
1990 7-5 1991 7-4
1991 7-4 1992 11-2

One noticeable thing about this list is its connectivity. Four of the five season duos occurred during the two best periods of modern-era football at The Citadel (and the other, the 1980-81 sequence, was preceded by a 6-5 season in 1979).

Here are the other ten years (post-WWII) in which the Bulldogs won 7+ games:

1st year Record 2nd year Record
1961 7-3 1962 3-7
1969 7-3 1970 5-6
1971 8-3 1972 5-6
1981 7-3-1 1982 5-6
1984 7-4 1985 5-5-1
1988 8-4 1989 5-5-1
1992 11-2 1993 5-6
2007 7-4 2008 4-8
2012 7-4 2013 5-7
2015 9-4 2016 ?

For completeness, here is a list of each occasion prior to World War II where The Citadel had a campaign in which the team won at least two more games than it lost:

1st year Record 2nd year Record
1906 3-0 1907 1-5-1
1908 4-1-1 1909 4-3-1
1911 5-2-2 1912 3-4
1915 5-3 1916 6-1-1
1916 6-1-1 1917 3-3
1923 5-3-1 1924 6-4
1924 6-4 1925 6-4
1925 6-4 1926 7-3
1926 7-3 1927 3-6-1
1928 6-3-1 1929 5-4-1
1937 7-4 1938 6-5
1942* 5-2 1946* 3-5

*The Citadel did not field a football team between 1943-1945

Sustaining success has not been easy at The Citadel. Of course, nothing is easy at The Citadel, so it’s not exactly a shock that consistently winning football games at the school can be kind of tricky.

What about the upcoming season, with a new head coach?

It’s the first time The Citadel has ever had to replace a head football coach following a 7+ win season. Heck, it’s the first time The Citadel has had to replace a head football coach following a winning season of any kind since 1942 (for the record, then-head coach John “Bo” Rowland left to take the job at Oklahoma City University prior to the resumption of football at The Citadel in 1946).

New head coach Brent Thompson and new defensive coordinator Blake Harrell were on the staff that led the Bulldogs to a 9-4 record, a share of the Southern Conference championship, an FCS playoff victory and an upset of SEC foe South Carolina a season ago. Offensive coordinator Lou Conte rejoins the staff after a year away.

With 15 starters back from the 2015 squad, the beginning of the Brent Thompson era — he’s the 25th coach in school history — does not feel like starting over.

“It’s more of a continuation than a new beginning,” said senior linebacker Tevin Floyd. “And that kind of ties in with what we are tying to do this year — keep the momentum going from last year.”

Historically, keeping that momentum going has been difficult. However, there is one interesting note about those past big-win seasons worth mentioning.

Of the five 7+ win years in the post-WWII era that were followed up by over-.500 seasons, all five subsequent winning campaigns resulted in at least seven wins. Three of them matched the win total of the year before, and the title-winning 1992 team upped the prior year’s victory toteboard from seven to eleven.

The only one of the five not to match or exceed the number of wins of the previous season was the 1961 squad — and that team won the Southern Conference championship.

In other words, based on past history (and to be fair, a rather small sample size), there is roughly a two-thirds chance the Bulldogs do not have a winning season in 2016. There is a one-third chance, however, that The Citadel wins at least nine games and/or the SoCon title this year.

I would greatly prefer that smaller section of the speculative statistical pie.

Football season is getting even closer…

FCS school football pages and 2016 media guides

This post provides lists and links to FCS school football pages/media guides for the 2016 season (I did the same thing in 20132014, and 2015). SBNation usually has a page with links to FBS football pages and media guides; I’ll link to that when it becomes available.

Included below are the schools’ football web pages, 2016 football media guides, and occasionally something extra (more often than not an additional record book that is separate from the regular media guide). I also link to conference web pages and media guides.

Some of the guides are called prospectuses or supplements (or are extended “notes” packages); these tend to have fewer pages.

More than a few schools are now eschewing media guides. When that is the case, I will link to the appropriate “fact sheet” or general notes/stats packages. At times, it is hard to determine whether or not a school intends to release a media guide.

This will be a work in progress. I’ll link to media guides or prospectuses as they are released by the individual schools and conferences. For some schools, that won’t happen before the season actually begins. Based on past history, in a few cases it won’t happen at all.

One other note: this season, Coastal Carolina will play as an FCS independent, and not as a Big South conference member. However, for convenience I am including Coastal Carolina with the Big South teams anyway.

Last update: August 27, 2016 

Big Sky 2016 Guide
Cal Poly 2016 Guide
Eastern Washington 2016 Guide
Idaho State 2016 Info Records
Montana 2016 Guide
Montana State 2016 Guide Records
North Dakota 2016 Guide
Northern Arizona 2016 Guide
Northern Colorado 2016 Guide Records
Portland State 2016 Guide
Sacramento State 2016 Guide
Southern Utah 2016 Stats
UC Davis 2016 Guide
Weber State 2016 Guide
Big South 2016 Guide
Charleston Southern 2016 Guide
Coastal Carolina 2016 Guide  Note: FCS independent in 2016
Gardner-Webb 2016 Guide
Kennesaw State 2016 Guide
Liberty 2016 News Record Book
Monmouth 2016 Guide
Presbyterian 2016 News
CAA 2016 Guide
Albany 2016 Guide Record Book
Delaware 2016 Info
Elon 2016 News Records
James Madison 2016 Guide
Maine 2016 Guide
New Hampshire 2016 Guide
Rhode Island 2016 News Record Book
Richmond 2016 Guide Record Book
Stony Brook 2016 Guide
Towson 2016 Guide
Villanova 2016 Guide
William & Mary 2016 News Records
Ivy League 2016 Guide
Brown 2016 Guide Records
Columbia 2016 Guide
Cornell 2016 Facts Records
Dartmouth 2016 News Records
Harvard 2016 Guide
Pennsylvania 2016 Guide
Princeton 2016 Preview Record Book
Yale 2016 Preview Record Book
MEAC 2016 Guide
Bethune-Cookman 2016 News
Delaware State 2016 Guide
Florida A&M 2016 News
Hampton 2016 Guide
Howard 2016 News
Morgan State 2016 Guide
Norfolk State 2016 Guide
North Carolina A&T 2016 News
North Carolina Central 2016 Info Record Book
Savannah State 2016 Guide
South Carolina State 2016 News
MVFC 2016 News Records and History
Illinois State 2016 Guide
Indiana State 2016 Guide Record Book
Missouri State 2016 Guide
North Dakota State 2016 News Records and Results
Northern Iowa 2016 Guide
South Dakota 2016 Guide
South Dakota State 2016 Guide
Southern Illinois 2016 Guide
Western Illinois 2016 Guide Record Book
Youngstown State 2016 Guide
NEC 2016 News
Bryant 2016 News
Central Connecticut State 2016 News Record Book
Duquesne 2016 Guide
Robert Morris 2016 Guide
Sacred Heart 2016 News Record Book
St. Francis (PA) 2016 News Record Book
Wagner 2016 Guide
OVC 2016 Guide
Austin Peay 2016 Guide
Eastern Illinois 2016 Guide Record Book
Eastern Kentucky 2016 Guide Record Book
Jacksonville State 2016 Guide
Murray State 2016 Guide
Southeast Missouri State 2016 Guide
Tennessee State 2016 Guide
Tennessee Tech 2016 Guide
UT Martin 2016 Guide
Patriot League 2016 Guide
Bucknell 2016 Guide
Colgate 2016 Guide Record Book
Fordham 2016 Guide
Georgetown 2016 Guide
Holy Cross 2016 Guide
Lafayette 2016 Guide
Lehigh 2016 Info Record Book
Pioneer League 2016 News
Butler 2016 News Record Book
Campbell 2016 Guide
Davidson 2016 News
Dayton 2016 News Record Book
Drake 2016 Guide
Jacksonville 2016 News Record Book
Marist 2016 Guide
Morehead State 2016 Guide
San Diego 2016 News Records and Results
Stetson 2016 News
Valparaiso 2016 News Records and Results
SoCon 2016 Guide
Chattanooga 2016 Guide
East Tennessee State 2016 Guide Record Book
Furman 2016 Guide Record Book
Mercer 2016 Guide
Samford 2016 Guide
The Citadel 2016 News Record Book
Virginia Military Institute 2016 Guide
Western Carolina 2016 Guide
Wofford 2016 Guide
Southland 2016 Guide
Abilene Christian 2016 Guide
Central Arkansas 2016 Guide
Houston Baptist 2016 Guide
Incarnate Word 2016 Guide
Lamar 2016 Guide
McNeese State 2016 Guide
Nicholls State 2016 Guide
Northwestern State 2016 Guide
Sam Houston State 2016 Guide Record Book
Southeastern Louisiana 2016 Guide
Stephen F. Austin 2016 Guide
SWAC 2016 Guide
Alabama A&M 2016 Guide
Alabama State 2016 News
Alcorn State 2016 Facts
Jackson State 2016 News
Mississippi Valley State 2016 News
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 2016 Stats
Grambling State 2016 Preview
Prairie View A&M 2016 Guide
Southern University 2016 Info
Texas Southern 2016 Info

Inside the numbers: The Citadel’s 2015 run/pass tendencies, per-play averages, 4th-down decision-making…and more!

A few other football-related posts from recent weeks:

Updating history: Attendance at Johnson Hagood Stadium, 1964-2015

What teams will the Bulldogs’ opponents play before (and after) facing The Citadel?

Preseason football ratings and rankings, featuring The Citadel (and the rest of the SoCon)

Also, of course, there are the much-discussed TSA “watch lists” for the upcoming league campaign. See if your favorite SoCon football player (or coach) made one of the lists!

TSA watch lists for the SoCon — Offense
TSA watch lists for the SoCon — Defense
TSA watch lists for the SoCon — Special Teams
TSA watch list for the SoCon — Coach of the Year

For the past two years, I have written about tendencies in playcalling by the then-coach of the Bulldogs, Mike Houston (and his offensive coordinator, Brent Thompson, who of course is now The Citadel’s head coach). I compared what Houston had done while at Lenoir-Rhyne to Kevin Higgins’ last two seasons at The Citadel, along with Houston’s initial season at The Citadel in 2014.

Now I’m going to take a look at what Houston and Thompson did last year at The Citadel, and contrast some of those statistics with those from the 2014 season for the Bulldogs, along with the 2013 campaign under Higgins. I decided not to include 2013 Lenoir-Rhyne stats in my comparison this time, though if anyone wants to see those numbers, they are contained in my previous posts on the subject.

My focus is on down-and-distance run/pass tendencies, fourth-down decision-making, situational punting, and assorted other statistical comparisons. This year, I also took a look at the coin toss (?!), after spotting a trend late last season.

Almost all of the statistics that follow are based on conference play, and only conference play. It’s easier and fairer to compare numbers in that way. Ultimately, The Citadel’s on-field success or failure will be judged on how it does in the SoCon, not against the likes of North Greenville or North Carolina (though beating South Carolina in non-conference action is always a plus).

The conference slates looked like this:

  • The Citadel played seven games in 2015 against SoCon teams. The conference schools competing on the gridiron last year: Western Carolina, Wofford, Samford, Furman, Mercer, VMI, and Chattanooga.
  • The Bulldogs played seven games in 2014 versus SoCon opposition. The teams in the league last year were the same as the 2015 opponents: Wofford, Western Carolina, Chattanooga, Mercer, Furman, Samford, and VMI.
  • The Citadel played eight games in 2013 against SoCon foes. As a reminder, those opponents were: Wofford, Western Carolina, Furman, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Chattanooga, Samford, and Elon.

Oh, before I forget: this year, I put most of the numbers on a spreadsheet. It’s a bit involved (there are seven different sub-sheets), but if anyone wants to peruse the numbers, go for it. Individual game statistics in various categories are included.

I’m fairly confident in the accuracy of the statistics, though I will admit that averaging the time of possession numbers gave me a bad headache. I may be off by a second or two on the quarterly TOP averages. If so, it’s too bad — no refunds are available.

Some definitions:

– 2nd-and-short: 3 yards or less for a first down
– 2nd-and-medium: 4 to 6 yards for a first down
– 2nd-and-long: 7+ yards for a first down
– 3rd-and-short: 2 yards or less for a first down
– 3rd-and-medium: 3 to 4 yards for a first down
– 3rd-and-long: 5+ yards for a first down

The first number that will follow each down-and-distance category will be the percentage of time The Citadel ran the ball in that situation in 2015. Next to that, in parenthesis, is the run percentage for The Citadel in 2014, and that will be followed by the Bulldogs’ run percentage for that situation in 2013 (which will be in brackets).

For example, when it came to running the ball on first down, the numbers looked like this:

– 1st-and-10 (or goal to go): 89.1% (88.9%) [77.1%]

Thus, The Citadel ran the ball on first down 89.1% of the time last year, while the Bulldogs ran the ball in that situation 88.9% of the time in 2014 (basically, there was no difference). The Citadel ran the ball 77.1% of the time on first down during its 2013 campaign.

Overall, the Bulldogs ran the ball 86.5% of the time, after rushing on 84.3% of all offensive plays in 2014.

Here are the rest of the down-and-distance categories (in terms of rush percentage):

– 2nd-and-short: 89.2% (84.0%) [95.8%]
– 2nd-and-medium: 89.8% (90.2%) [87.8%]
– 2nd-and-long: 89.2% (82.2%) [75.0%]
– 3rd-and-short: 93.1% (95.5%) [85.7%]
– 3rd-and-medium: 82.4% (90.3%) [90.9%]
– 3rd-and-long: 66.0% (57.4%) [54.0%]

A caveat to these numbers is that there were a few called pass plays that turned into runs. However, if the result of a play was a sack, that counted as a passing down even if a pass wasn’t thrown. There were four such plays in conference action in 2015 for The Citadel.

When compiling NCAA statistics, lost yardage on sacks counts against rushing totals, which may strike the casual observer as counter-intuitive. The NFL, on the other hand, considers sack yardage as passing yardage lost.

I don’t think there is a lot to be surprised about in those numbers, not for anyone who has watched a Brent Thompson offense over the last few years. It is true that the Bulldogs’ passing percentage on 3rd-and-medium is slightly higher than one might expect, but we’re only talking about three pass attempts on seventeen such down/distance situations; subtract one pass attempt, and the average would have been almost exactly the same as it was the previous two seasons.

There were three games in which the Bulldogs threw the ball a bit more often than normal on third-and-long: Wofford, Furman, and Chattanooga.

The Citadel was 4 for 6 passing versus Wofford on 3rd-and-long for 41 yards, including a 24-yard completion. At Furman, the Bulldogs were 1 for 2 (and also suffered a sack).

However, the one completion on third-and-long against the Paladins was a big one, a 50-yard pass from Dominique Allen to Reggie Williams that set up a TD. It was probably the biggest play of the game.

In the game versus Chattanooga, The Citadel was 2-3 for 20 yards (and a sack) on third-and-long. Trailing throughout the contest undoubtedly had an effect on the play-calling.

Prior to the 2015 season, I wrote:

[In 2014], The Citadel attempted four passes on 2nd-and-short. The first three of them fell incomplete.

In the season finale at VMI, however, the Bulldogs did complete a 2nd-and-short toss, a Miller connection (Aaron to Vinny) that went for 26 yards and set up a field goal to close out the first half of that contest. Upstairs in the Foster Stadium press box, Brent Thompson undoubtedly heaved a sigh of relief after calling his first successful 2nd/3rd-and-short pass play in league action in almost two years.

On a serious note, The Citadel has to convert at a higher rate when it passes the ball in 2nd- and 3rd-and-short situations. The offense must take advantage of having the element of surprise in its favor.

Well, The Citadel attempted four passes on 2nd-and-short in 2015, too. The results? An interception, a 36-yard gainer that led to a touchdown, a 24-yard TD strike, and a 22-yard completion.

Not bad. The pick came in the red zone, though. I guess you can’t have everything.

– The Citadel’s offense in 2013 in SoCon action: 69.6 plays per game, 12.0 possessions per game
– The Citadel’s offense in 2014 in SoCon action: 75.4 plays per game, 11.0 possessions per game*
– The Citadel’s offense in 2015 in SoCon action: 70.7 plays per game, 11.9 possessions per game**

*This does not include the Bulldogs’ overtime possession against Furman

**I don’t count a drive as an actual possession when it consists solely of a defensive TD via a return, or when it is a defensive turnover that ends the half or game (or both, like Tevin Floyd’s pick-six against VMI). I also don’t count a drive as a possession when the offensive team does not attempt to move the ball forward (such as a kneel-down situation). That’s how I interpret the statistic, regardless of how it may be listed in a game summary.

The Citadel had a time of possession edge in SoCon play of almost four and a half minutes (32:13 – 27:47). That was actually slightly less of a TOP edge than the Bulldogs had in 2014 (32:40 – 27:20).

The offense generally took control of the ball, however, as games progressed. Average time of possession for The Citadel, by period: 6:59 (1st quarter), 7:47 (2nd), 8:31 (3rd), 8:56 (4th).

– The Citadel’s offense in 2013 in SoCon action: 5.41 yards per play, including 5.13 yards per rush and 6.4 yards per pass attempt
– The Citadel’s offense in 2014 in SoCon games: 5.56 yards per play, including 5.35 yards per rush and 6.8 yards per pass attempt
– The Citadel’s offense in 2015 in SoCon games: 6.09 yards per play, including 5.57 yards per rush and 9.7 (!) yards per pass attempt

The Bulldogs’ offense improved in all three per-play categories listed above for a second consecutive season. Last year, I suggested a benchmark:

I think the goal going forward might be for yards per rush to exceed 5.75, and for yards per pass attempt to exceed 8.0 (or at least 7.5).

Mission accomplished, especially those yards per pass attempt. The Citadel threw 63 passes in seven SoCon games, and gained 609 total yards passing. Three of those tosses were intercepted, which is not a terrible ratio.

How did the yards per play numbers for the defense shake out? Quite nicely, thank you very much:

– The Citadel’s defense in 2013 in SoCon action: 5.47 yards per play, including 4.39 yards per rush and 7.2 yards per pass attempt
– The Citadel’s defense in 2014 in SoCon action: 7.02 yards per play, including 5.69 yards per rush and 9.1 yards per pass attempt
– The Citadel’s defense in 2015 in SoCon action: 5.07 yards per play, including 3.69 yards per rush and 6.7 yards per pass attempt

That will work. After a less-than-stellar 2014 campaign, the defense improved markedly last year. Check out that yards per rush allowed stat — exactly two yards less per play from one year to the next. The defense against the pass was excellent, too.

In 2014, The Citadel allowed more than seven yards per rush in four of seven league contests. In 2015, the Bulldogs allowed fewer than three yards per rush in four of seven conference games. It helped that The Citadel averaged 4.3 tackles for loss (not including sacks) per game in SoCon action.

– The Citadel’s defense in 2013 in SoCon action: 12 sacks, 26 passes defensed in 204 attempts (12.7% PD)
– The Citadel’s defense in 2014 in SoCon action: 8 sacks, 14 passes defensed in 176 pass attempts (8.0% PD)
– The Citadel’s defense in 2015 in SoCon action: 20 sacks, 33 passes defensed in 212 pass attempts (15.6% PD)

Passes defensed is a statistic that combines pass breakups with interceptions.

After a trying season in 2014, everything worked well for the defense in 2015. I don’t think it is too surprising that the PD numbers improved with an increase in sacks, and the Bulldogs were harassing opposing quarterbacks even when they weren’t sacking them (increasing their “hurries” totals in league play from eleven to seventeen).

Big plays! Big plays! Big plays! Big plays! Big plays!

In seven conference games in 2014, The Citadel’s defense allowed 47 plays from scrimmage of 20 yards or more — 21 rushes and 26 pass plays. In 2015, that number dropped to 23, nine rushes and fourteen pass plays.

That’s a huge improvement, obviously. It isn’t exactly a shock that big plays lead to points, either directly or later in the drive. Preventing those long gainers is a key to keeping teams off the scoreboard.

For example, of those 23 big plays allowed by the Bulldogs, 14 led to touchdowns (either on the play itself, or later on the same drive). That’s 60.1% of the time.

That percentage is actually lower than what SoCon opponents allowed against The Citadel’s offense on big plays, however. In league action, the Bulldogs had 30 plays of 20 yards or more on offense last year (19 on the ground, 11 in the air). Twenty of those thirty plays led directly or indirectly to touchdowns (66.7%).

– The Citadel’s offensive 3rd-down conversion rate in SoCon action, 2014: 46.3%
– The Citadel’s offensive 3rd-down conversion rate in SoCon action, 2015: 50.0%

– The Citadel’s defensive 3rd-down conversion rate in SoCon action, 2014: 41.5%
– The Citadel’s defensive 3rd-down conversion rate in SoCon action, 2015: 33.7%

In all games last season, the Bulldogs had an offensive 3rd-down conversion rate of 49.4% (second-best to Chattanooga among SoCon squads), and a defensive 3rd-down conversion rate of 36.5% (which was the best mark among league teams).

The Citadel was 3 for 8 on 4th down in conference play (37.5%). In this case, the percentage may not be as significant a story as are the total attempts. In 2014, the Bulldogs had twenty 4th-down tries in SoCon games, converting twelve (60%).

League opponents were 8 for 13 (61.5%) on 4th down against the Bulldogs last year. It’s definitely a small sample size, but it wouldn’t hurt the defense to knock that percentage down a bit in 2016.

First known football usage of “red zone” in print, per Merriam-Webster: 1983.

First known claim that the red zone does not in fact exist: 2013.

– The Citadel’s offensive Red Zone touchdown rate in SoCon action, 2013: 60.0%
– The Citadel’s offensive Red Zone touchdown rate in SoCon action, 2014: 66.7%
– The Citadel’s offensive Red Zone touchdown rate in SoCon action, 2015: 56.3%

– The Citadel’s defensive Red Zone touchdown rate in SoCon action, 2013: 66.7%
– The Citadel’s defensive Red Zone touchdown rate in SoCon action, 2014: 60.0%
– The Citadel’s defensive Red Zone touchdown rate in SoCon action, 2015: 52.2%

The Bulldogs’ offensive Red Zone TD rate would have been better if you didn’t include the VMI game, in which The Citadel somehow managed to go 0 for 5 in scoring touchdowns once inside the 20-yard line. That was a disappointing performance, though on the bright side Eric Goins got to pad his stats.

I always like to take a brief look at fumbles. There really isn’t much to say about them as far as last year was concerned, other than the defense recovering seven of eight opponent fumbles was against the odds. Usually, recovering fumbles is a 50-50 proposition.

– The Citadel’s offensive fumbles in SoCon action, 2014: 10 (lost 6)
– The Citadel’s offensive fumbles in SoCon action, 2015: 12 (lost 8)

– The Citadel’s defensive forced fumbles in SoCon action, 2014: 14 (recovered 7)
– The Citadel’s defensive forced fumbles in SoCon action, 2015: 8 (recovered 7)

When it comes to the SoCon, there are two things on which you can rely with absolute certitude: 1) The Citadel’s gridiron opponents won’t get called for many penalties, and 2) no one associated with The Citadel will ever make the league’s Hall of Fame.

– Penalties enforced against The Citadel in SoCon action, 2014: 37
– Penalties enforced against The Citadel in SoCon action, 2015: 42

– Penalties enforced against The Citadel’s opponents in SoCon action, 2014: 22
– Penalties enforced against The Citadel’s opponents in SoCon action, 2015: 29

– Punts by The Citadel while in opposing territory in 2013, SoCon action: 6 (in eight games)
– Punts by The Citadel while in opposing territory in 2014, SoCon action: 6 (in seven games)
– Punts by The Citadel while in opposing territory in 2015, SoCon action: 6 (in seven games)

In the spreadsheet I linked earlier (and located on sub-sheet 6), I described the scenarios for each of the punts by the Bulldogs in opposing territory during the 2015 season. Of the six, the most questionable was almost certainly the first of two such punts in the Mercer game.

Trailing 10-0, and facing 4th-and-1 on Mercer’s 40-yard line early in the second quarter, Mike Houston elected to punt. I’m still not sure it was the right decision, but it worked out. Mercer punted the ball back on the next drive, and The Citadel would eventually regroup and take a halftime lead it barely deserved (well, Isiaha Smith deserved it, at least).

There were also three punts by the Bulldogs on 4th down from midfield in conference play. Two of them were inconsequential, but the third (and last) was a different story. After going for a 4th-and-short on The Citadel’s 40-yard line (and making it), Houston was faced with another decision three plays later.

On 4th and 2 from midfield, trailing 24-14 early in the 4th quarter, he elected to punt. Chattanooga scored on the ensuing possession, essentially wrapping up the victory for the Mocs.

I think the coach probably should have gone for it in that situation, but I’m just a guy with a computer. I do wish the Bulldogs hadn’t burned a timeout before punting, though.

Let’s talk about 4th down…

Defining some terms (courtesy of Football Outsiders):

– Deep Zone: from a team’s own goal line to its 20-yard line
– Back Zone: from a team’s own 21-yard line to its 39-yard line
– Mid Zone: from a team’s own 40-yard line to its opponent’s 40-yard line
– Front Zone: from an opponent’s 39-yard line to the opponent’s 21-yard line
– Red Zone: from an opponent’s 20-yard line to the opponent’s goal line

On sub-sheet 7 of the aforementioned spreadsheet, I’ve categorized each fourth down situation for The Citadel in conference play.

The Bulldogs punted on 4th down every time they were in the Deep Zone or Back Zone. In the Mid Zone, The Citadel punted ten times on 4th down, and went for it three times.

Two of the three were late in the UTC game, so they were “desperation” attempts. I tend not to focus on those types of fourth down attempts (or “garbage time” tries, either). The other 4th-down attempt in the Mid Zone, however, was early in the second quarter against Samford:

  • With 14:12 remaining in the half and the game tied 7-7, The Citadel faced fourth-and-1 on the Samford 40. Mike Houston elected to go for it, and Dominique Allen kept the ball for a 13-yard gain. The Bulldogs eventually scored on the drive, taking a lead they would not relinquish.

In the Front Zone, there were two punts on 4th down (both somewhat justifiable decisions), and four field goal attempts (two were made, two were missed). Three times, Houston kept the offense on the field on 4th down in this zone. One was a “desperation” attempt. The other two occasions were as follows:

  • On The Citadel’s first drive of the game against Western Carolina, the Bulldogs faced 4th-and-2 on the WCU 22-yard line. It didn’t work out for The Citadel, as Vinny Miller was tackled for a loss of four yards.
  • Midway through the fourth quarter versus Mercer, The Citadel went for it on 4th-and-2 from the Mercer 30-yard line, clinging to a 14-13 lead. Cam Jackson gained seven yards to pick up a first down. Three plays later, the Bulldogs scored a TD.

In the Red Zone, The Citadel faced 4th down eight times. Here is a quick review of all eight situations:

  • Ahead 36-12 midway through the 4th quarter against Wofford, the Bulldogs reached the Terriers’ 6-yard line. On 4th and goal, Eric Goins made a 23-yard field goal. (This is close to a “garbage time” decision, admittedly.)
  • On 4th-and-6 at the Mercer 19-yard line, leading 14-10, The Citadel lined up for a field goal. The snap was botched, and the result of the play was an incomplete pass.
  • Early in the second quarter, with a 4th-and-goal at the VMI 16 (the Bulldogs were pushed back by a holding penalty), Eric Goins converted a 33-yard field goal.
  • With a 17-7 lead midway through the second quarter, The Citadel faced fourth-and-goal at the VMI 2-yard line. The Bulldogs went for it, but only gained one yard, turning the ball over on downs.
  • Midway through the third quarter, now leading 20-14, the Bulldogs again had the ball deep in VMI territory. They were unable to punch it in for a TD, though, and on 4th-and-goal from the Keydets’ 3 yard-line, Eric Goins trotted back on to the field to kick another field goal (of 20 yards).
  • On the Bulldogs’ next possession, ahead 23-14, they drove the ball inside the VMI 10-yard line for the umpteenth time, yet still could not get in the end zone. This time, on 4th-and-1 from the VMI 6, Goins made a 23-yarder.
  • Early in the second quarter, trailing 14-0, The Citadel faced 4th-and-2 from the Chattanooga 5-yard line. The Bulldogs went for it, but only picked up one yard.
  • Late in the game versus UTC, with a 4th-and-goal on the Mocs’ 10-yard line, Mike Houston elected to try a field goal. Eric Goins converted the try, bringing the Bulldogs to within two touchdowns (at 31-17).

I was a little surprised when I realized that the Bulldogs did not convert a Red Zone 4th down situation into a touchdown in league play all of last season. Of course, part of that has to do with the lack of opportunities. If you’re scoring touchdowns on 1st or 2nd or 3rd down, then what you do or don’t do on 4th down doesn’t matter as much.

Incidentally, in 2014 The Citadel had five Red Zone 4th down situations in conference action. On only one of those occasions did the Bulldogs convert a 4th down into a first down. That was a big one, though (and a big call to make), as it came in overtime against Furman and led to the eventual game-winning TD.

I am inclined to believe that Mike Houston was slightly more conservative (just slightly) in his 4th-down decision-making in 2015 than he had been the previous season, primarily because he could afford to be. His team was often in the lead, or within a score of being in the lead.

Houston also knew that he had a good, clutch placekicker, and a solid “directional” punter capable of consolidating field position.

Will Vanvick must have shaken his head when great punts in the Samford game went unrewarded (after having the ball downed at the 1- and 2-yard lines, Samford scored touchdowns on the ensuing drives anyway). He’ll always have the punt against South Carolina to remember, though.

Earlier in this post, I wrote that I had spotted a trend involving the coin toss. To be honest, I don’t know if I really spotted it, or if I just read or heard about it somewhere. I have a vague idea that the subject of the coin toss came up during the weekly coach’s radio show hosted by Mike Legg. It could have been a note in a Jeff Hartsell story, too. Alas, I don’t remember.

At any rate, I wanted to elaborate on the decision-making surrounding the coin toss. I’m not talking about whether or not to call “heads” or “tails”, but rather the idea of deferring the option to the second half after winning a coin toss.

Last year, The Citadel won the coin toss five times (four in SoCon play). Each time, the Bulldogs elected to defer, and wound up kicking off to open the game.

The military college also kicked off three times after losing the coin toss, as three of The Citadel’s opponents (Mercer, South Carolina, and Coastal Carolina) elected to receive the opening kickoff.

The Bulldogs did not automatically defer the option in 2014 when they won the toss, actually electing to receive the opening kickoff three out of the five times they won the flip that season. Therefore, it appears the deferral concept was instituted between the 2014 and 2015 seasons.

I don’t know if Bill Belichick was the inspiration for deferring the option whenever possible, but there are worse guys to emulate when it comes to on-field strategy. As a story in The New York Times pointed out:

Two recent New England games illustrate the advantages of deferring. On Nov. 2, on a cold and windy afternoon, the Patriots won the toss against the Broncos. The Patriots deferred and got the ball to start the second half. When the Broncos elected to receive to begin the game, the Patriots then chose the end that would guarantee the wind would be at their back in the first and fourth quarters. The Patriots won, 43-21.

Sunday against the Lions, the Patriots again deferred. New England scored 10 points in the final three minutes of the second quarter. The Patriots then got the kickoff to open the third quarter and drove deep into Detroit territory before Brady threw an interception.

In the same article, Herm Edwards noted that if “the possessions go about as you think they’re going to go, then maybe you end up with the ball at the end of the game. At the very least, you have the ball to start the second half. And that’s a critical time of the game.”

That piece was written in late November of 2014, just after the Bulldogs’ season had ended that year. I suppose it’s possible that Mike Houston read the story and altered his approach. The timing could also have been coincidental, of course.

Absent other factors, I think deferring the option is usually the right decision. It gives a team the chance to score to end the first half, and then put more points on the board in the second half before the other team gets the ball. It also prevents the opponent from having that same opportunity.

By the way, The Citadel lost six of seven coin tosses last season on the road. As a general rule, one of the visiting team’s captains calls the toss. The Bulldogs obviously need to work on their “heads” or “tails” coin-toss calling technique.

 —

Whether or not Brent Thompson will stay the course when it comes to deferring the option is an unknown at this point. He will be in a position to put his personal stamp on that, along with such matters as fourth-down decision-making. Those are just two of the many items of interest for the new gridiron boss.

I suspect that things like run/pass tendencies will not radically change, mainly because Thompson himself called the plays the past two years. If there is an adjustment in that area (for example, if The Citadel passes more often), it won’t be due to a change in philosophy, but will instead simply be a function of his personnel, both in terms of talent and experience.

Summer is crawling along, but the season is getting closer…

Updating history: attendance at Johnson Hagood Stadium, 1964-2015

As always, home attendance is never far away from the thoughts of the person responsible for this blog. This year’s review of last season’s attendance follows.

Attendance at Johnson Hagood Stadium, 1964-2015

The above link is to a spreadsheet that tracks attendance for The Citadel’s home football games, and which has now been updated to include the 2015 campaign.

For anyone wondering, 1964 marks the earliest year in which reliable attendance figures for all home games can be reasonably determined. Individual game totals prior to 1964 are sometimes available, but not for a complete season.

Thus, I am unable to include seasons like the title-winning campaign of 1961, or any of the other years from 1948 (when the “modern” Johnson Hagood Stadium opened) to 1963 (when the home finale was attended by the former king of Italy, Umberto II).

The spreadsheet lists year-by-year total and average game attendance, and the win/loss record for the team in each given season. There is also a category ranking the years by average attendance.

Other columns refer to the program’s winning percentage over a two-year, three-year, five-year, and ten-year period, with the “current” season being the final year in each category. For example, the three-year winning percentage for 1992 is made up of the 1990, 1991, and 1992 seasons.

I include those categories primarily to see what impact constant winning (or losing) has on long-term attendance trends. Last year, I wrote:

…the numbers seemed to suggest that a good season tends to drive walk-up sales more than might be expected, particularly compared to season ticket sales for the following campaign. It is also true that due to The Citadel’s struggles on the gridiron over the last two decades, it is hard to draw hard-and-fast conclusions about what the school’s attendance goals should actually be in this day and age.

I think that was borne out again in 2015, though there are obvious sample size issues. For the first two home games of the season (night games versus Davidson and Western Carolina), the average attendance was 8,356. For the final two games at Johnson Hagood Stadium last season (day games against Mercer and VMI), average attendance was 12,465.

Of course, one of those late-season games was Homecoming, so I decided to go back four more seasons:

  • 2014: First two home games, average attendance of 9,700; final two home games, average attendance of 9,563 (including Homecoming)
  • 2013: First two home games, average attendance of 13,370; final two home games, average attendance of 12,948 (including Homecoming)
  • 2012: First two home games, average attendance of 13,281; final two home games, average attendance of 13,715 (including Homecoming)
  • 2011: First two home games, average attendance of 12,756; final two home games, average attendance of 12,387 (including Homecoming)

During the seasons in which The Citadel finished with winning records (9-4 in 2015 and 7-4 in 2012), home attendance improved over the year, albeit not by a lot in 2012.

There was a similar attendance boost in 2007, when the Bulldogs also finished with a winning record (7-4). I am hesitant to put a great deal of stock in that increase, though, due to a wide variation in the quality of opponents (and the resulting fan interest level for the matchup).

The Citadel beat Webber International 76-0 in the second home game that season before 8,547 diehard supporters. I suspect that if the game had been scheduled later in the year, there wouldn’t have been much difference in the total attendance.

The Bulldogs were 5-7 in both 2013 and 2014, and 4-7 in 2011. That lack of on-field success is arguably reflected in the attendance totals.

Of course, it has to be mentioned that attendance in 2014 was at its lowest point in the 52 years that comprehensive records have been kept. While last year was an improvement, 2015 still ranked only 47th out of the seasons in that 52-year period.

The average attendance at Johnson Hagood Stadium since 1964 is 14,164. However, there have now been ten consecutive years in which that number has not been reached for a season attendance average.

The folks in the ticket office continue to work hard at increasing sales for the general public. The most recent example of this is a Groupon promotion.

Not that anyone in the department of athletics needs me to say this, but I think it’s worth noting that The Citadel cannot afford to relax its sales push once the season begins. Attendance for late-season home contests can’t be taken for granted, regardless of the team’s record or if a particular game is scheduled on Homecoming weekend.

Let’s take a quick look at attendance from the viewpoint of the FCS as a whole (including the SoCon).

Link to NCAA attendance figures for the 2015 season

Montana led the division in average home attendance, with 24,139 (seven games, including the playoffs; all of these numbers include postseason contests). Eight FCS schools averaged more than 18,000 per game, with a significant dropoff after that (the ninth-highest, Delaware, averaged 15,826).

The Citadel ranked 22nd overall (10,678), just behind Mercer (10,692). Chattanooga (25th, averaging 10,152) and Western Carolina (26th, averaging 10,119) were other Southern Conference schools that finished in the Top 30.

Others of varying interest among the 125 FCS squads (counting Abilene Christian and Incarnate Word, which are transitioning to the division, but not Charlotte, which is moving to FBS):

  • Jacksonville State — 2nd (20,598 per game)
  • Yale — 3rd (20,547)
  • James Madison — 4th (19,498)
  • Montana State — 5th (19,172)
  • Liberty — 6th (18,990)
  • North Dakota State — 7th (18,497)
  • South Carolina State — 10th (15,629)
  • Harvard — 17th (12,799)
  • Eastern Kentucky — 23rd (10,350)
  • William & Mary — 33rd (8,967)
  • Kennesaw State — 35th (8,820)
  • Coastal Carolina — 36th (8,818)
  • Richmond — 45th (8,099)
  • Elon — 46th (7,841)
  • East Tennessee State — 55th (7,128)
  • Wofford — 58th (7,007)
  • Furman — 60th (6,795)
  • Villanova — 61st (6,767)
  • Samford — 79th (5,544)
  • VMI — 90th (4,778)
  • Charleston Southern — 96th (4,487)
  • Gardner-Webb — 100th (3,882)
  • Presbyterian – 102nd (3,810)
  • Jacksonville — 104th (3,580)
  • Davidson — 113th (2,758)
  • Duquesne — 125th (1,372)

Odds and ends:

– Duquesne, a playoff team last year, ranked last in the division in home attendance.

– Furman finished behind Wofford in home attendance, the second consecutive season that has happened.

– Montana’s home attendance average was higher than 41 FBS programs, including every single school in the Sun Belt and the MAC. It was higher than the average home attendance for the Mountain West and C-USA.

– Montana State may have only had the second-best home attendance in its own state, but that was still higher than 17 FBS programs.

– The Citadel had a higher home attendance average than three FBS schools — Georgia State, Ball State, and Eastern Michigan (which averaged only 4,897 fans per game).

Undergraduate enrollment for those three institutions: 32,842 (Georgia State), 18,621 (Eastern Michigan), and 16,652 (Ball State).

– The decision of the Sun Belt to extend a membership invitation to Coastal Carolina instead of Liberty was definitely not based on money, and it clearly wasn’t based on fan support either, if football attendance is any guide.

– For those curious, without the home playoff game last season Charleston Southern would have averaged 3,694 per home contest.

– Despite declining attendance numbers at Johnson Hagood Stadium, The Citadel has still finished in the Top 30 of FCS attendance in each of the last ten years. I think that’s pretty good for a small military college.

While there has been a bit of angst concerning attendance (or lack thereof) at home games in recent years, it has to be remembered that The Citadel still enjoys a wildly greater level of support than would normally be the case for a school of its size — both in terms of undergraduate enrollment, and alumni base.

Sometimes, that gets lost in the shuffle. For example, I distinctly remember at least two members of the local media cohort who forgot that last season.

Football season is getting closer…

 

During the 2016 season, what teams will the Bulldogs’ opponents play before (and after) facing The Citadel?

That’s right, it’s time for the annual July topic. In this post, I take a look at football schedules, and note which teams The Citadel’s opponents face before and after playing the Bulldogs. Sometimes, of course, the answer is “bye”.

Let’s review…

September 1 (Thursday): The Citadel’s first game of the season is a road conference matchup with Mercer. The game will be played on Thursday night, the first time I can recall the Bulldogs not opening the season on a Saturday.

As the opener for both teams, obviously neither will have faced a prior opponent this year. Mercer’s last game was a 47-21 home loss to Samford to close out the 2015 campaign.

After playing The Citadel, the Bears will prepare for another triple option team — Georgia Tech. It will be the first time the schools have met on the gridiron since 1938 (and the first game for Mercer against an FBS opponent since it restarted its football program in 2013).

September 10: Furman makes the trip to Charleston to face the Bulldogs. The Paladins open their 2016 season on Friday night (September 2), travelling to East Lansing for a meeting with Michigan State (the first time Furman has ever played a Big 10 team in football).

The Paladins’ home opener is on September 17, versus Chattanooga. It is the only one of FU’s first four games that will take place in Greenville, as Furman will play at Coastal Carolina on September 24.

September 17: The Citadel makes the journey to Boiling Springs, North Carolina, for a Bulldogs-vs.-Bulldogs battle.

It will be Gardner-Webb’s only home game in the month of September. The Runnin’ Bulldogs open with road games at Elon and Western Carolina before playing The Citadel, and will venture into the world of the MAC on September 24 for a contest against Ohio.

September 24: This is the open week for The Citadel. I’ll be on vacation myself. No, that isn’t a coincidence.

October 1: The Bulldogs will be in Cullowhee on the first day of October, tangling with Western Carolina. Both teams will be coming off a bye week.

WCU plays East Tennessee State in Johnson City on September 17. The game against The Citadel will be the first of two straight home contests for the Catamounts, as they play Wofford on October 8.

Western Carolina has FBS bookends on its schedule this year. WCU opens its season with a game versus East Carolina. There will be plenty of purple in Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium that night.

The Catamounts will conclude regular-season action with a trip to Columbia for an SEC-SoCon Challenge game against South Carolina. Will the local alt-weekly refer to the game as a “cupcake” matchup? I’m guessing it will not.

October 8: After almost a month away from Johnson Hagood Stadium, The Citadel returns home for a Parents’ Day game against North Greenville.

The Crusaders are at home on October 1, facing Mars Hill. After playing The Citadel, the next game for North Greenville is a road matchup versus Tusculum.

October 15: The Bulldogs play Chattanooga in Charleston on this date. The Mocs are at home for both their prior game (Mercer) and the contest that follows (VMI).

After playing eight SoCon games in nine weeks, Chattanooga finishes its regular season campaign with a non-conference clash against Alabama.

October 22: The Citadel faces Wofford in Spartanburg. The Terriers have a bye on October 15. The week following the game against the Bulldogs, Wofford hosts Mercer.

The Terriers open the season with two road games. Wofford plays Mississippi in the second of those contests.

October 29: The Bulldogs play East Tennessee State in the next-to-last home game of the season. The Buccaneers don’t have a bye the week before, but will get a couple of extra days of preparation, as ETSU hosts West Virginia Wesleyan on Thursday, October 20.

East Tennessee State is at Mercer the week following its trip to Johnson Hagood Stadium. ETSU finishes the season with two home games, against Cumberland (yes, the Cumberland of 222-0 fame) and Samford.

November 5: Samford is the Homecoming opponent for The Citadel this year. With the possible exception of Furman, none of the military college’s other opponents has a tougher task the week prior to facing The Citadel. Samford has a matchup at Mississippi State on October 29.

On November 12, Samford holds its own Homecoming game against Mercer.

November 12: The battle for the coveted Silver Shako resumes once again on November 12, this time in Lexington, Virginia. VMI plays at Western Carolina the week before, and concludes its regular season with a game at Wofford the week following this game.

November 19: There will be lots of light blue in Chapel Hill on November 19, as The Citadel comes to town to face North Carolina. The Tar Heels are at Duke on November 12, and have another rivalry game the following week, versus North Carolina State (with that game taking place on the Friday following Thanksgiving Day).

A couple of observations about the schedule:

– Mercer wound up as a de facto “travel partner” of sorts for The Citadel this season. The Bears play Chattanooga the week before the Bulldogs do. Following that, there are three consecutive weeks in which a team will play Mercer the week after playing The Citadel (those three squads being Wofford, East Tennessee State, and Samford).

– As far as “option preview” situations are concerned…

Western Carolina and VMI both face Wofford the week after playing The Citadel. Only two league teams (Samford and East Tennessee State) play Wofford before matchups with The Citadel; both play the Terriers several weeks before meeting the Bulldogs.

North Carolina will play Georgia Tech two weeks before hosting The Citadel in Chapel Hill. North Greenville has a meeting with Lenoir-Rhyne a few weeks before playing The Citadel, but L-R (which has a new head coach) is moving to a more balanced offense after several years running the triple option.

Football season is getting closer…

For Immediate Release: TSA Watch List for the Southern Conference (SoCon), Part 4 — Coach of the Year

Today, TSA announced its watch lists for the 2016 SoCon Player of the Year and various associated positional honors, including quarterback, running back, offensive line, wide receiver, tight end, defensive line, linebacker, defensive secondary, kicker, punter, and long snapper. The watch lists will once again incorporate a broad spectrum of league teams. There will also be a watch list for the TSA SoCon Coach of the Year.

TSA is a member of the Global American College Football Awards Consortium (GACFAC), which encompasses the most prestigious awards in college football. GACFAC is the standard-bearer for tradition-selection excellence.

The membership of TSA unveils the preseason watch lists in a series of four releases, one for offensive players, one for defensive players, one for special teams stalwarts, and one for coaches. All players listed are eligible for TSA’s SoCon Player of the Year, as well as honors for each of their respective positional categories.

Players not listed on any TSA watch list are ineligible for any post-season honors. However, TSA has a unique appeals process by which a player not on a watch list can be nominated for a special exemption. Any players granted such an exemption will be named to their respective TSA late-season watch lists for each positional category, and would become eligible for league player of the year as well.

Head coaches not listed on the TSA watch list are also ineligible for post-season honors. However, TSA’s unique appeals process for players also applies to any SoCon head coach not on the watch list.

Without further ado, here is the TSA watch list for the SoCon Coach of the Year for 2016. Congratulations to all the coaches who were selected.

(As noted earlier, other releases will feature the offensive, defensive, and special teams watch lists.)

Link to watch lists — offense

Link to watch lists — defense

Link to watch lists — special teams

Coaches

Bobby Lamb Mercer
Brent Thompson The Citadel
Bruce Fowler Furman
Carl Torbush ETSU
Chris Hatcher Samford
Mark Speir W. Carolina
Mike Ayers Wofford
Russ Huesman Chattanooga
S. Wachenheim VMI
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