The Sports Arsenal

collegiate, adjective & noun: of or belonging to a college.

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Future conference games in FBS football over the next three to four years will include the following:

UCLA-Rutgers
Oregon-Northwestern
Southern California-Maryland
Washington-Purdue
Virginia Tech-Stanford
California-Miami (FL)
SMU-Boston College
Oklahoma-Vanderbilt
Texas-Kentucky
UTEP-Kennesaw State
Utah-West Virginia
Colorado-UCF

That doesn’t even include some of the ridiculous matchups that have been league games for a while now, like West Virginia-Texas Tech. Already, we have somehow become acclimated to this kind of stupidity.

On Friday, the ACC announced it was expanding again, this time adding Stanford, California, and SMU. USA Today columnist Dan Wolken very reasonably described the move as a “Ponzi scheme“. 

However, in these times a Ponzi scheme can be considered necessary for a college athletics conference to survive. Pat Forde of Sports Illustrated put it this way:

Viewed in a vacuum, the idea of California schools joining an East Coast conference is entirely nonsensical. But College Sports Inc. left the common-sense vacuum last year when USC and UCLA bailed for the Big Ten, then doubled down on it this summer with Oregon and Washington doing the same. We aren’t going back.

In other words, common sense no longer applies — which is why the Pac-12 is now the Pac-2. 

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One of the more curious aspects of the ACC expansion is that SMU is essentially paying to join the league; the school will not receive media rights money from the conference for its first nine years of membership. That’s how desperate SMU’s administration and big-time boosters were to become members of a power conference, even a power conference that isn’t the SEC or Big 10.

SMU will become eligible for media payments after nine years, but the ACC’s deal with ESPN expires in 2036. There is a very good chance the conference won’t exist (at least in its current form) beyond that year. I can only assume that SMU is simply trying to position itself for a seat at the table in the next and presumably final round of conference realignment, the inevitable creation of the ‘Superleague’.

If SMU is willing to essentially join a league for free just to get in the same room with the big boys, then the next thing that could happen is a school paying to join a conference. The ACC has 18 schools now (including Notre Dame); why not an even 20?

I would not be surprised if Liberty, which is absolutely flush with cash at the moment, were to wind up in the ACC (or the Big XII). For those who think such a notion is completely ridiculous, perhaps it is — but what about the last few years in the big-picture world of college sports hasn’t been completely ridiculous?

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After all, at this point everything is on the table, at least in terms of money. Florida State, which can’t wait to get out of the ACC but is currently stuck in the league thanks mostly because of the Grant of Rights agreement between the members, is considering private equity investment in its athletics program:

Florida State University is working with JPMorgan Chase to explore how the school’s athletic department could raise capital from institutional funds, such as private equity, according to multiple people familiar with the plans.

PE giant Sixth Street is in advanced talks to lead a possible investment, said the people, who were granted anonymity because the specifics are private. Institutional money has poured into professional sports in recent years, from the NBA and global soccer to F1 and golf, but this would break new ground by entering the multibillion-dollar world of college athletic departments.

It doesn’t have to be private equity, either, based on what is happening in professional golf and European soccer. Perhaps the sovereign wealth fund of the Saudi Arabian government (known as “PIF”) could invest in Florida State athletics and help the school exit the ACC.

Two or three home football games each season might be moved to Riyadh. The team could wear green alternate jerseys with ‘SAUDINOLES’ across the front. All in all, it would presumably be a small price to pay in order to avoid playing Virginia or Wake Forest.

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It might come as a surprise to some, but the Superleague isn’t really a 21st-century notion. Variations of the concept have been bandied about since at least the late 1950s, after the dissolution of the major west coast conference of the time, the Pacific Coast Conference. The most well-known version of that era was the so-called ‘Airplane Conference’, an idea championed by respected athletics administrator Tom Hamilton, which would have included Air Force, Army, California, Navy, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Penn State, Southern California, Stanford, Syracuse, UCLA, and Washington.

Other schools were reportedly in the mix as well, including Duke, Georgia Tech, and Penn, just to name a few. The participation of the service academies was ultimately vetoed by officials at the Pentagon, however, and then a new west coast league was created (which would become the Pac-5/8/10/12). That put an end to the Airplane Conference before it could take flight.

Well, now the nation’s major west coast conference has been decimated again, but this time the Pentagon is unlikely to be a factor in what comes next.

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The modern version of the Superleague might form around the time the current TV contracts for the Big 10 and SEC expire (at the end of the 2029-2030 and 2033-2034 seasons, respectively). There has been occasional discussion about schools like Vanderbilt and Northwestern eventually getting kicked out of those two leagues, but what could happen instead is that the ‘big brands’ in each league simply leave the conferences to join a new entity, which will be the Superleague (undoubtedly to be called by a sponsor name).

As Dennis Dodd wrote last month:

The conversation — a notably preliminary one — took place in December 2022. Around a table were venture capitalists and private equity types. The super-rich don’t get that way sitting on their assets. They plan. They innovate. They create change; they don’t wait for it.

So, at some point in the conversation, the question was posed: What would it take to “buy” a conference, invest at the base level of college athletics itself?

After some noodling, they agreed: $1 billion.

There’s even a conference out there that would be available. You haven’t heard of it. Nobody has.

It resides in the mind of media consultant Patrick Crakes. He was the one speaking with those investors who are beginning to see great potential in reshaping college athletics.

“Take $1 billion and roll up all the best teams into a new conference,” said Crakes, who spent a quarter century as an executive at Fox Sports…

…Since pursuit of this story began, CBS Sports has learned that at least one major private equity firm has shown interest in funding a conference structure.

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How will all of this eventually affect smaller college sports programs, like the one at The Citadel?

It’s hard to tell right now, although the end result almost certainly won’t be positive.

I don’t think there is much question that the days of football “money games” for the Bulldogs against Power 5 programs will be coming to an end in the near future, at least for significant monetary payouts. 

If The Citadel is playing a school like South Carolina after 2035 or so, it’s because South Carolina didn’t make the cut and isn’t in the Superleague — and if that is the case, then there isn’t going to be much money for the Gamecocks to hand out. Heck, the schools might wind up playing a home-and-home or a 2-for-1.

(Side note: South Carolina would probably be on the outside looking in for the Superleague, unless that entity consisted of at least 40 schools. My guess is that the number will ultimately be in the 20-36 range.)

Money from the NCAA basketball tournament could also be scarce, if the big-brand schools decide to leave the NCAA in that sport as well. I’m not as sure about that happening (there are multiple complicating factors), but it is a possibility. 

Of course, cash isn’t everything, and if after the dust settles The Citadel were to wind up in an all-sports conference with like-minded schools, similar to the situation that now exists in the Southern Conference, that would be fine. The college has managed to navigate an ever-changing NCAA landscape for decades as it is.

That’s why the school shouldn’t do anything dramatic right now, because nobody really knows what the future will look like, or what adjustments (if any) The Citadel will have to make because of the new world order in college sports.

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I find the current state of college athletics to be rather depressing. I still mostly enjoy the games, but everything else is a total mess. The future doesn’t look good, either.

I’ll keep hoping for the best, though.

Filed under: Football | Tagged: ACC, Air Force, Army, Big 10, Big XII, California, Florida State, Liberty, Navy, Notre Dame, Pac-12, Penn, SEC, SMU, Stanford, Superleague, The Citadel |