Bulldogs vs. Bulldogs, with some FCS stats thrown in

Posted on October 25, 2024 by Sandlapper Spike

The Citadel vs. Samford, to be played at historic Johnson Hagood Stadium (not including the East stands), with kickoff at 2:00 pm ET on October 26, 2024.

The game will be streamed on ESPN+. Dave Weinstein will handle play-by-play, while Vad Lee supplies the analysis. Matison Little is the sideline reporter. 

The contest can be heard on radio on 102.1-FM in Charleston [audio link]. Brian Giffin calls the game alongside analyst Lee Glaze.

—

The Citadel game notes

Samford game notes

SoCon weekly release

—

I really don’t have a lot to say about this matchup (but hey, I’m still posting about it). Samford just blitzed previously undefeated Mercer 55-35, and has beaten The Citadel five consecutive times on the gridiron, including 37-7 last year and 38-3 the last time the two teams met in Charleston.

At his weekly press conference, Maurice Drayton was asked how his squad matched up with SU. His response: “The truth of the matter is we don’t match up well.”

You can’t say he isn’t honest.

—

Let’s take a look at some statistical comparisons. Keep in mind that Samford has played two fewer games than The Citadel, and one of those was against an SEC opponent (Florida).

The Citadel’s offense vs. Samford’s defense

  • TC averages 22.4 points per game; SU allows 26.5
  • TC averages 4.86 yards per play; SU allows 5.53 
  • TC rushes on 60.8% of its offensive plays; SU faces a rush attempt 51.8% of the time
  • TC averages 4.15 yards per rush (sack-adjusted); SU allows 3.88
  • TC averages 5.96 yards per pass attempt (sack-adjusted); SU allows 7.31
  • TC gives up a sack on 6.9% of its drop-backs; SU sack rate of 8.1%
  • TC converts 36.52% of its 3rd-down attempts; SU allows 35.48%
  • TC has converted 9 of 17 4th-down attempts (52.94%); SU has allowed 7 of 11 (63.64%)
  • TC averages 4.11 estimated points per Red Zone trip; SU allows 4.86
  • TC averages 1.38 turnovers per game; SU has forced 1.83 turnovers per contest

—

Samford’s offense vs. The Citadel’s defense 

  • SU averages 26.3 points per game; TC allows 21.6
  • SU averages 4.99 yards per play; TC allows 5.47
  • SU rushes on 46.2% of its offensive plays; TC faces a rush attempt 52.9% of the time
  • SU averages 3.45 yards per rush (sack-adjusted); TC allows 4.69
  • SU averages 6.32 yards per pass attempt (sack-adjusted); TC allows 6.34
  • SU gives up a sack on 7.7% of its drop-backs; TC defensive sack rate of 8.7%
  • SU converts 29.76% of its 3rd-down attempts; TC allows 32.67%
  • SU has converted on 6 of 7 4th-down attempts (85.71%); TC has allowed 9 of 17 (52.94%)
  • SU averages 4.58 estimated points per Red Zone trip; TC allows 4.99
  • SU averages 1.17 turnovers per game; TC has forced 1.13 turnovers per contest

—

(Yes, The Citadel’s offense has converted 9 of 17 4th-down tries and its defense has allowed conversions on 9 of 17 4th-down attempts. I double-checked that one.)

—

Other stats of note

  • TC: 4.5 penalties per game (37.9 yards); SU: 3.3 penalties per game (29.9 yards)
  • TC: 40.88 net punting average; SU: 34.46 net punting average
  • TC: -0.25 turnover margin per game; SU: 0.67 turnover margin per game
  • TC: 30:22 time of possession average; SU: 29:42 TOP average
  • TC: total season estimated point differential for RZ trips of -15; SU has a total season EPD of 8

(Total Estimated Point Differential and its even wackier cousin, Attempts-Estimated Point Comparison, are “experimental” statistics that I’ve just created in an effort to compare point totals on red zone possessions. Feel free to completely disregard them.)

—

Under Chris Hatcher, Samford has been an occasionally puzzling outfit, capable of big wins and strange losses, sometimes looking both fantastic and terrible in the same game. 

That has worked in The Citadel’s favor at times. Two of the more memorable wins at JHS in recent years at were comeback victories over Samford.

In 2016 the Cadets came back from 10 down with less than 5 minutes to play to prevail in overtime, clinching the SoCon title in the process, while two years later The Citadel pulled off the biggest comeback victory in the history of Johnson Hagood Stadium, roaring back from 21 points down to win 42-27. I still remember the money falling out of the sky.

That 2018 game remains the Charleston Bulldogs’ last win in the series.

This season, Samford has continued to perplex, opening the year by losing to Division I debutant West Georgia. After an expected loss to Florida the following week, SU outlasted Alabama State 12-7 in its home opener. 

Samford’s game at Furman was postponed due to Hurricane Helene, which resulted in a three-week break between games. That might have been just what SU needed, because the last three games have been solid efforts — a 27-3 win over VMI, a tough 31-28 loss at East Tennessee State, and the aforementioned defeat of Mercer last Saturday, a contest Samford led 42-7 at halftime.

Did Samford give up 3 straight TDs to the Bears to make it a two-score game early in the fourth quarter? Yes, it did. Did Samford then score two defensive touchdowns to wrap things up? Yes, it did.

SU had 17 (!) offensive possessions in the game. Average length of drive by time: 1:41, with only one possession taking longer than 2:20. That is classic Chris Hatcher offensive football.

—

Per one source that deals in such matters, Samford is an 8½-point favorite at The Citadel on Saturday. The over/under is 51½. The moneyline is The Citadel +250, Samford -300.

According to Bill Connelly’s SP+ system, Samford is projected to win the game by a score of 30.0-17.8. The Massey Ratings have SU winning 31-20, with The Citadel given a 21% chance of pulling the upset.

Other SoCon games shake out like this, as the ratings systems see it (Furman is off this week):

  • Western Carolina-Mercer: MU 30-24 (Massey); MU 33.7-18.2 (SP+)
  • VMI-Chattanooga: UTC 35-7 (Massey); UTC 37.8-5.8 (SP+)
  • East Tennessee State-Wofford: ETSU 26-21 (Massey); ETSU 27.0-18.2 (SP+)

—

The comparative stats posted above for the matchup on Saturday mostly came via a spreadsheet I put together for all of FCS. If you’re interested in a lot of numbers, this is the link to the spreadsheet:

FCS stats through October 20, 2024

Here is how The Citadel is ranked among all 129 FCS teams entering Saturday’s play in various statistical categories:

Offense

  • Yards per play — 103rd [VMI ranks last in this category]
  • Yards per rush (sack-adjusted) — 106th [South Dakota State leads; ETSU is 11th]
  • Yards per pass attempt (sack-adjusted) — 83rd [VMI ranks last in this category]
  • Points per game — 86th [Monmouth leads; VMI ranks last in this category as well]
  • 3rd-down conversion rate — 71st [five SoCon teams in bottom 20]
  • Estimated points per Red Zone trip — 109th [Butler leads; no SoCon team in top 30]

Defense

  • Yards allowed per play — 54th [Dayton leads, Mercer is 3rd; Youngstown State is last, a far cry from its glory days]
  • Yards allowed per rush (sack-adjusted) — 45th [Mercer leads this category by almost two-thirds of a yard; ETSU is 7th and Samford is 9th]
  • Yards allowed per pass attempt (sack-adjusted) — 73rd [the top 4 in this category are all Pioneer League teams]
  • Points allowed per game — 21st [Mercer is still 5th despite last week’s debacle at Samford]
  • 3rd-down conversion rate allowed — 21st [Mercer leads]
  • Estimated points allowed per Red Zone trip — 65th [Incarnate Word leads; Mercer is 3rd, Wofford 9th, WCU 11th, and Furman 17th]

Miscellaneous

  • Net punting — 14th [Mercer tops in the SoCon at 7th; Charleston Southern is 6th]
  • Turnover margin per game — 83rd [Nicholls State leads; Mercer and Chattanooga are both in the top 10]
  • Fewest penalties per game — 13th [Samford is 5th; Harvard leads this category]
  • Time of possession — 46th [Samford is 72nd, which is higher than normal for SU]

—

It should be a sunny day on Saturday, with a projected high in Charleston of 83 degrees. It is also a bye week for both Clemson and South Carolina. Heck, Coastal Carolina is off this week, too. Maybe that will juice attendance a little bit at Johnson Hagood Stadium. 

The contest will be a tough challenge for The Citadel. Samford is coming off what is arguably the most impressive performance by a SoCon team this season, and this is an opportunity for the Birmingham Bulldogs to cap an excellent month of football. A league title for SU remains a possibility.

That said, I think The Citadel has a chance in this game. We shall see. 

Filed under: Football, The Citadel | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a comment »