As of now, it looks likely that at least one non-BCS school is going to make a BCS bowl. There are still three undefeated non-BCS teams, Utah (#7 in the BCS standings), Boise State (#9), and Ball State (#14). In addition, BYU is #17 and could conceivably crash the top 12 if the one-loss Cougars were to beat Utah on November 22.
The real question is, could two non-BCS teams grab a BCS berth? Probably not. The rules state that if there are multiple non-BCS teams in the top 12, only the highest-ranked of them is guaranteed a bid. Any other non-BCS school would go into the at-large pool.
The top 14 teams in the standings are eligible to be selected for an at-large bid. Now, it’s possible that one of them could be selected over a BCS school for an at-large berth, but it strikes me as extremely unlikely. After all, this whole setup is designed for the BCS schools, and the non-BCS’ers only got their meager semi-invitation to the party thanks to Congress raising its collective eyebrows.
That doesn’t mean it’s impossible for one of the outsiders to grab a bid. What needs to happen is that a BCS bowl has no option but to pick a non-BCS school for an at-large bid. How that could happen for this particular season…
There are 5 BCS bowls, so there are 10 spots available. 6 are reserved for conference champions. No more than two teams from one conference can get bids (this is key). Right now the top 14 in the BCS standings, by conference, is as follows: Big XII – 5, SEC – 3, Big 10 – 2, Pac-10 – 1, Mtn. West – 1, WAC – 1, MAC – 1
So three of those Big XII teams can’t be picked, and one of the SEC teams can’t either. Assuming the Big XII and SEC each get two teams into the BCS, which is just about a lock at this point, you have six spots left to fill. Four of those go to the other BCS conference champions, and two are at-large selections. One of those at-larges, though, technically becomes an automatic bid if a non-BCS school breaks into the top 12, which will almost certainly happen. That leaves one spot for a second Big 10 team, a second non-BCS team, or…a second Pac 10 team.
Yes, a second Pac-10 team — and that team would be Southern California. That’s because right now Oregon State still has the edge for the automatic berth out of the Pac-10, with the same number of conference losses as the Trojans and the tiebreaker by virtue of its victory over Southern Cal earlier this season. If the Beavers win their last three games, they would go to the Rose Bowl, and then Southern Cal would become a very desirable at-large candidate. That would eliminate any possibility of a second non-BCS school getting a BCS bid.
The other scenario involves the Big 10, which has two schools in the top 14 plus Michigan State, which is sitting at #15 and has an opportunity to at least tie for the conference title with a victory over Penn State. Ohio State has two games left, against Illinois and Michigan, as does Penn State (the Nittany Lions play Indiana this weekend before finishing with the Spartans). For a second non-BCS school to grab a berth, two of those three teams need to finish outside the top 14. If you’re a fan of Boise State or Ball State, you probably should be rooting for Penn State to beat Michigan State, because there is a chance the Nittany Lions could stay in the top 14 even with a loss to the Spartans. I tend to doubt it, but it’s possible (especially given that other schools in the top 14 will be losing too, as some of them play each other, so there will be further movement). A loss by Michigan State definitely takes the Spartans out of the mix.
That leaves Ohio State. I don’t think there is any way a 10-2 Ohio State team isn’t picked for an at-large berth (at least when the options are the Buckeyes or one of Ball State/Boise State). A loss by Ohio State in either of its last two games, though, might drop it out of the top 14 (especially if the loss is to Michigan), and even if the Buckeyes hang in the top 14, 9-3 might not get it done. Being a bit of a cynic, though, I suspect a BCS bowl given the choice between a 3-loss Ohio State team and an undefeated Boise State squad is taking the Buckeyes (I don’t think Ball State would have a prayer of getting the nod in that situation).
So basically, if you want two non-BCS schools in BCS bowls, you are rooting against Oregon State and Ohio State, and for everything else to shake out in an normal fashion, or at least as normal a fashion as you can get in college football. (And you want the non-BCS’ers to run the table, obviously.)
Filed under: Football | Tagged: Ball State, BCS, BCS Standings, Big 10, Big XII, Boise State, Brigham Young, college football, MAC, Michigan State, Mountain West, Ohio State, Oregon State, Pac-10, Penn State, SEC, Southern California, Utah, WAC | 1 Comment »
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