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Examining the college baseball “bubble” with one week to go

Posted on May 23, 2010 by Sandlapper Spike

This will be a huge week in the college baseball world, obviously, with conference tournament action all over the country (along with some key regular season games in the Pac-10, which does not have a league tournament). I decided to break down the potential field and see what teams are in, what teams are out, and what teams have work to do. Admittedly, I’m not the only person who does this — you can read fine efforts from the folks at Baseball America and Yahoo! Sports, just to name two — but I’m the only person who will do it on this blog. So there.

I’m going to approach this from the point of view of a fan of a “bubble” team who wants to know the ideal scenario by which his team can make the field, by the way. The Citadel, while not a true “lock”, is probably safe at this point (and well it should be). However, I would like to see any potential roadblocks to the NCAAs removed. In other words, I’m for the chalk.

RPI numbers mentioned below are as of May 23 and are from Boyd Nation’s website. For the uninitiated, the regionals include 64 teams, 30 automatic qualifiers (by winning their respective league bids) and 34 at-large selections. Three leagues do not hold post-season tournaments, so their regular season champs get the auto bid. Several smaller conferences have already held their post-season events and so we know what teams will be representing those leagues.

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There are 15 leagues that will definitely only have one team in the field, the so-called “one-bid leagues”. Dartmouth, Bethune-Cookman, Bucknell, and San Diego have already qualified from four of these conferences. The other eleven leagues are the America East, Atlantic 10, CAA, Horizon, MAAC, MAC, NEC, OVC, SWAC, Summit, and WAC. That leaves 49 spots for the other 15 leagues.

(There are also a few independents, along with the members of the Great West, a league that does not get an automatic bid, but none of those teams are serious candidates to make a regional.)

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There are several leagues that will also be “one-bid” conferences, unless the regular season champion doesn’t win the conference tournament, and even then the favorite might not be good enough to get an at-large bid anyway. Bubble teams should definitely be rooting for the top seed in these leagues, just to make sure no spots are “stolen”. These leagues are as follows:

— Atlantic Sun – Florida Gulf Coast University dominated this conference. With an RPI of 40, FGCU probably stands a decent (not great) shot at getting a bid even if it loses in the A-Sun tourney. This is unfamiliar ground for the Eagles, as the A-Sun tourney will be their first post-season experience in Division I.

If you’re wondering why you have never heard of Florida Gulf Coast University, it’s because the school (located in Fort Myers) has only existed since 1997. The baseball team has only been around since 2003, first as a D-2 program and now at D-1. It’s an amazing story, really; there are a few more details to be found here. It just goes to show you how many good baseball players there are in Florida, and for that matter how many young people there are in Florida (FGCU has an enrollment of over 11,000).

— Big 10 – Michigan has an RPI of 65, which isn’t really that great, and didn’t even win the regular season title (Minnesota, with a losing overall record, did). It’s barely possible the selection committee will throw a bone to the all-powerful Big 10 and give a “snow bid” to a second team from the league, but I doubt it. Incidentally, the Big 10 tournament will be held in Columbus, but Ohio State did not qualify for the event.

— Big South – Coastal Carolina will almost certainly be a national seed. If the Chanticleers win the league tourney, the Big South is probably a one-bid league. Liberty has an RPI of 51 and has beaten no one of consequence. Bubble teams should definitely root for CCU.

— Conference USA – Rice will be in the tournament. The only other team with a shot at a potential at-large bid is Southern Mississippi, but with an RPI of 67, it’s likely the Eagles need to win the C-USA tourney. Otherwise, it could be bad news for the Minnesota Vikings.

— Missouri Valley – Wichita State will be the top seed at the MVC tourney, tying for the regular season title with Illinois State but holding the tiebreaker. If the Shockers (RPI of 56) don’t win the league tournament, they could get an at-large bid, but I don’t see it. Still, you have to watch out, given the tradition of Wichita State, that the committee doesn’t give a “legacy” bid.

— Southland – There are three teams (Texas State, Southeastern Louisiana, and Northwestern State) that are semi-viable at-large candidates, but I suspect all of them really need the auto bid. Texas State won the regular season title, has an RPI of 50, and probably would be the one best positioned for an at-large spot, but I don’t think that would happen. Bubble teams should pull for Texas State anyway, just to make sure. Southeastern Louisiana has an RPI of 48 but dropped all three games of its final regular season series to Northwestern State, at home, and thus finished third in the league.

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Let’s look at the remaining “mid-majors”:

— Big East – Louisville should be a national seed. Connecticut has had a great year and may wind up hosting (but as a 2 seed). Pittsburgh doesn’t have a great RPI (53), but has a fine overall record, will get the benefit of the doubt for its power rating because it is a northern school, and is probably in good shape. The Big East appears to be a three-bid league. St. John’s has a good record but an RPI of 74.

— Big West – Cal State Fullerton will host and could be a national seed. UC Irvine should also make it out of this league (which does not have a post-season tournament). I don’t see anyone else getting in. It’s a two-bid league.

— Mountain West – TCU will probably host a regional. I think New Mexico (RPI of 42) is getting in, too, although an 0-2 MWC tourney could make the Lobos a little nervous. The MWC should get two bids.

— Southern – The Citadel (RPI of 37) won the regular season by two full games, winning its last seven league games (and its last eight games overall). It was the only school in the SoCon to not lose a home conference series, and went 8-4 against the schools that finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th in the league, with all of those games being played on the road.

What The Citadel was not good at was winning on Tuesday. It was 0-7 on Tuesdays until winning at Winthrop in its final Tuesday matchup. On days other than Tuesday, the Bulldogs were 37-13.

Regionals are not played on Tuesdays. The selection committee is aware of this, and probably aware that The Citadel has a top-flight starting pitcher (potential first-round pick Asher Wojciechowski) and a very good Saturday starter (6’7″ left-hander Matt Talley) who pitch on Fridays and Saturdays.

That’s a lot of verbiage to say that, even if the Bulldogs go 0-2 in the SoCon tourney, I expect them to be in the NCAAs. They better be.

The College of Charleston should be in the NCAAs too, with an excellent record and RPI (24). The only other team with a shot at an at-large bid out of the SoCon is Elon (RPI of 43), which tied for third in the league (but is the 4 seed in the conference tourney). The Phoenix had a better record against the ACC (6-1) than in the SoCon (19-11). The SoCon should get at least two bids, and possibly three.

— Sun Belt – Florida Atlantic and Louisiana-Lafayette will be in the NCAAs. Then there is Western Kentucky, with an RPI of 36 and some nice non-conference wins (Texas A&M, Texas State, Baylor, Vanderbilt, Kentucky). However, the Hilltoppers finished 16-14 in league play, tied for sixth, and will be the 8 seed at the Sun Belt tournament. Can an 8 seed out of the Sun Belt get an at-large bid? I’m not sure about that.

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That leaves the four leagues that will send the most teams. The easiest of these to evaluate, in terms of at-large possibilities, is the SEC. The other three are a bit more difficult to figure out.

— Southeastern – Alabama’s sweep of Tennessee in Knoxville locked up a berth in the SEC tourney (and the regionals) for the Tide and also knocked the Vols out of both events. LSU took care of business against Mississippi State, and then got the benefit of Kentucky’s meltdown against cellar-dweller Georgia. The Wildcats were eliminated from the SEC tourney (and likely the NCAAs) after a 20-0 loss in Athens on Friday night. Ouch. The SEC, which some were suggesting could send ten teams to the NCAAs, will send eight — the same eight teams playing in the league tournament.

— Atlantic Coast – Six teams are locks (Virginia, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami, Virginia Tech). Then there are the other two teams in the league tournament (Boston College and NC State) and one that isn’t (North Carolina).

I think it’s possible that two of those three get in, but not all three. North Carolina didn’t even make the ACC tourney, but has a really good RPI (21) and just finished a sweep of Virginia Tech. The Heels actually tied for 8th with BC, but the two teams did not meet during the regular season, and BC wound up prevailing in a tiebreaker, which was based on record against the top teams. That’s also UNC’s biggest problem — it was swept by all three of the ACC heavyweights (Virginia, Georgia Tech, Miami). It also lost a series to Duke, which is never a good idea.

On the other hand, UNC did beat NC State two out of three games (in Chapel Hill). The Wolfpack has an RPI of 49, not quite in UNC’s range, thanks to a strength of schedule of only 77 (per Warren Nolan). By comparison, UNC has a SOS of 15 and BC 16, typical of most ACC teams (Miami has the #1 SOS in the nation; UVA is 9th, Clemson 11th).

The records for the two schools against the top 50 in the RPI are similar. Both are better than Boston College (8-20 against the top 50). BC, which is only 29-26 overall and has an RPI of 45, would be a marginal at-large candidate but for its quality schedule and, of course, its sweep of NC State in Raleigh.

What NC State does have to offer for its consideration is series wins against UVA and Georgia Tech. That’s impressive, but it’s probably not enough to get the Pack an at-large berth on its own.

I suspect that UNC will get in, despite not making the ACC tournament, but it will be close. BC and NC State both need to do some damage in the ACC tourney, which is a pool play event, meaning each team will play at least three games. The Eagles and Wolfpack each need to win at least twice. UNC fans need to root against both of them, because even though at-large bids (supposedly) aren’t doled out by conference, a run to the ACC title game by either BC or NCSU probably would move them ahead of the Heels in the at-large pecking order.

— Big XII – Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas A&M are locks. Kansas State (RPI of 35) is on the bubble but is in good shape. Baylor (RPI of 41), Texas Tech (RPI of 54, and now with a .500 overall record), and Kansas (RPI of 52) are also in the running for an at-large bid, although the latter two schools hurt themselves over the weekend and are in now in serious trouble. Both must have good runs in the Big XII tourney (which, like the ACC tournament, is a pool play event).

Baylor, Kansas, and Kansas State are all in the same “pod” for the Big XII tournament, so they may be able to separate themselves from each other (in a manner of speaking) during the tourney. How that will affect the total number of bids for the Big XII is hard to say. It wasn’t a banner year for the league, but I could see as many as six bids. I think, barring some upsets in the league tournament, it’s going to be five.

— Pac-10 – Arizona State, UCLA, Washington State, and Oregon are locks. Arizona (RPI of 19) probably is too, although the Wildcats would do well not to get swept next weekend at Oregon State.

There are nine teams in the conference still fighting to make the NCAAs. In this league, there is only one punching bag — Southern California. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

Washington has the worst RPI of the contenders (55) and is only one game over .500 overall. The Huskies play Southern Cal in their final series, which will probably help Washington’s record but may not help its NCAA case. Oregon State, as mentioned, hosts Arizona and may need to win twice. The Beavers (with a solid RPI of 32) did get a much-needed win on Sunday at Arizona State to improve their conference record to 10-14.

Stanford (RPI of 44) looks to be in good shape; the Cardinal host Arizona State next weekend and likely need to win just one of the three games (and may be able to withstand a sweep). On the other side of the bay, however, things are not as promising, as California (RPI of 39) has lost seven straight and finishes the season at Oregon needing to show the selection committee a reason to believe.

At least seven teams from the Pac-10 are going to make the NCAAs, and possibly eight. I don’t think all nine contenders are going to get the call, though.

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Okay, now let’s break things down. Just my opinion, of course. Here we go:

— Locks (30): Louisville, Connecticut, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Miami, Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Coastal Carolina, Cal State Fullerton, Rice, TCU, Arizona State, UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, Florida, South Carolina, Auburn, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Mississippi, Alabama, LSU, College of Charleston, Florida Atlantic, Louisiana-Lafayette

— Champions from “one-bid” leagues: 15

— Champions from leagues likely to get just one bid, but that do have bubble teams (but no locks): 4 (the leagues in question are the A-Sun, Big 10, MVC, and Southland)

— Bubble teams that are in good shape (6): Arizona, Kansas State, UC Irvine, New Mexico, The Citadel, Pittsburgh

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That’s 55 teams in total. If there are no upsets (hah!), then nine other bubble teams will make the NCAAs. I’ve got them listed in two groups; the “decent chance” group, and the “need some help and/or no conference tourney upsets for an at-large” group.

Decent chance for an at-large: Stanford, North Carolina, Baylor, FGCU (if needed), Oregon State, Elon, NC State

Need a lot of things to go right: Boston College, Liberty, Wichita State, Western Kentucky, Michigan, Texas Tech, Kansas, California, Washington, Texas State, Southeastern Louisiana, Northwestern State, Southern Mississippi, Kentucky, Tennessee, St. John’s

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That’s how I see things, as of Sunday night. Most of the action this week begins on Wednesday. Let the games begin…

Filed under: Baseball | Tagged: ACC, Asher Wojciechowski, Baseball, Baseball America, Big 10, Big East, Big West, Big XII, Boston College, Boyd Nation, Cal State Fullerton, California, Clemson, Coastal Carolina, College of Charleston, Conference USA, Connecticut, Elon, Florida, Florida Atlantic, Florida Gulf Coast, Georgia Tech, Liberty, Louisville, LSU, Matt Talley, Miami, Mountain West Conference, NCAA, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northwestern State, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon State, Pac-10, Rice, SEC, South Carolina, Southeastern Louisiana, Southern Conference, Southland, Stanford, TCU, Texas State, Texas Tech, The Citadel, UC Irvine, Virginia, Warren Nolan, Western Kentucky, Wichita State, Yahoo! Sports | Leave a comment »

The SoCon baseball race goes to the final weekend

Posted on May 18, 2010 by Sandlapper Spike

Just a quick breakdown of the different combinations, possibilities, and some observations…

There are four teams in the SoCon that still have NCAA regional at-large aspirations (in other words, schools that could potentially receive a bid even without winning the league tournament). The Citadel, College of Charleston, Georgia Southern, and Elon are the squads in the mix (5th-place Samford, 29-21 overall with an RPI of 68, is not a serious candidate for an at-large bid at this point). RPI numbers per Boyd Nation (as of 5/18):

The Citadel — 34-20 overall, 21-6 SoCon, RPI of 42
College of Charleston — 39-14 overall, 22-8 SoCon, RPI of 29
Georgia Southern — 33-19 overall, 19-8 SoCon, RPI of 53
Elon — 34-19 overall, 17-10 SoCon, RPI of 48

Realistically, two of these teams are likely to make it. It’s possible that three get in the field of 64, although I tend to doubt that will happen.

The Citadel’s profile has slipped a bit, thanks in part to its own struggles (particularly in midweek games) and partly because of results elsewhere. For example, the Bulldogs are currently only 1-8 against top 50 teams; thanks to Appalachian State and Western Carolina falling out of the top 50, The Citadel “lost” six top 50 wins. Conversely, CofC is 5-5 against Top 50 opposition while Elon is 6-7. GSU is 0-9.

With an excellent overall record, the College of Charleston would be a lock for the tourney by now if it had not dropped more than its fair share of league games, including losing a series at Furman. Georgia Southern has won 11 straight games to get back on the at-large radar, but has been swept at CofC and lost a home series to Western Carolina. Elon has some nice wins (including two at Clemson, one at NC State, and a home victory over UNC) but has been swept at home by The Citadel and also lost a home series to Georgia Southern.

Those league series losses at home hurt. The Citadel is the only team in the SoCon that has avoided losing a home series this season. The Bulldogs also have a better overall strength of schedule than the other three contenders.

Then there is this little nugget: with the meeting this weekend at Georgia Southern, The Citadel will have played the 2nd-, 3rd-, 4th-, and 5th-place teams in the SoCon all on the road. The Bulldogs have drawn what is easily the toughest slate of road league games, and held their own in them so far.

That’s why I believe that if The Citadel were to win the series in Statesboro and claim the regular season title in a top 10 league (the SoCon is currently rated 9th in RPI), it will be completely deserving of an NCAA bid, regardless of what happens in the Southern Conference tournament (and despite the Bulldogs’ foibles in midweek play). If The Citadel does not win at least two games at GSU, however, then the at-large prospects for the Bulldogs become a lot dicier.

The College of Charleston is in fairly good shape for a second bid for the league. I believe the other contenders likely have to win the league tournament, although Elon could make a case for an at-large with a strong tourney run. What Elon would not want in that situation is for a team other than the CofC or The Citadel to win the tournament.

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(Note: the seeding possibilities outlined below assume there are no rainouts this weekend.)

As far as SoCon tournament seeding goes, the CofC is going to be either the 1 or 2 seed. The Cougars have completed their league schedule.

The Citadel can be the 1 seed (with two wins in Statesboro), the 2 seed (with one win), or the 3 seed (if it is swept).

GSU is the 2 seed with a sweep and the 3 seed with 1 or 2 victories this weekend; if the Eagles are swept they could wind up as the 4 seed, but only if either Elon or Samford sweep their series against each other.

Elon and Samford will be the 4 and 5 seeds (and play each other for a fourth consecutive time in the first round of the tournament) unless the dual-sweep scenario outlined above occurs.

Western Carolina would be the 6 seed if the tournament started today, and will stay in that spot with a combination of two WCU wins/Appalachian State losses. The Mountaineers will be the 7 seed unless they can make up ground on the Catamounts.

There are three teams still alive for the 8th and final spot in the tournament (Davidson has been eliminated). Wofford holds a one-game lead over Furman, but the Paladins hold the tiebreaker. UNC-Greensboro is two games back of the Terriers, but does host Furman this weekend (Wofford has a series against Appy in Spartanburg). UNCG would need to sweep the Paladins and hope Appalachian State sweeps Wofford; otherwise, it’s out of the running.

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One more thing with regards to the SoCon tourney to keep in mind: the teams are basically divided into two four-team pods, with the winner of each pod meeting in the title game. One pod will have the 1, 4, 5, and 8 seeds, while the other will feature the 2, 3, 6, and 7 seeds. That second group, in particular, will be a bloodbath (not that the first will be a walk in the park).

Filed under: Baseball, The Citadel | Tagged: Appalachian State, Boyd Nation, College of Charleston, Davidson, Elon, Furman, Georgia Southern, Samford, Southern Conference, Southern Conference Tournament, The Citadel, UNC-Greensboro, Western Carolina, Wofford | Leave a comment »

Talkin’ Bulldog baseball

Posted on April 30, 2010 by Sandlapper Spike

I can’t believe I haven’t filed a post yet about The Citadel’s baseball team, but then, I haven’t been posting much at all as of late. That will change (I hope) in the ensuing months. At any rate, let’s talk Bulldog baseball. The Citadel is in first place in the SoCon right now, so it’s the perfect time to jump on the bandwagon!

The Citadel heads into the upcoming weekend series with Samford at 16-2 in the league (28-15 overall). I have to say I am pleasantly surprised at the Bulldogs’ success in the conference this season, as I thought it would be hard to replace the players The Citadel lost from last year’s team (including Richard Jones, Chris McGuiness, and Sonny Meade).

The Bulldogs needed to replace a ton of offensive productivity, and I didn’t think the pitching (which I expected would be good) would be able to overcome that. I guess Kendall Rogers, college baseball writer for Rivals.com, deserves credit for picking The Citadel to win the Southern Conference. I hope I didn’t just jinx the team by writing that.

What follows is a look at this season’s team and how it is faring in the categories of fielding, pitching, and batting. Some of this is probably going to come across as overly negative for a team currently leading its league, but it’s important to examine the team’s weaknesses as well as its strengths.

Fielding

Fielding is definitely the Achilles’ heel of this squad, and if the Bulldogs fail to win the league, or do not impress in any post-season play, it is likely to be the key reason why. The numbers are not good:

73 errors in 43 games (1. 7 errors per game)
A fielding percentage of .955 (which would be the worst for a Bulldog team in at least a decade)
An average of 38.09 chances per game (which would be the lowest for a Bulldog team since 2003)

The Citadel has committed two or more errors in 22 of its 43 games. That’s 2+ errors in more than half the games.

The Bulldogs have had defensive issues at third base, second base, and catcher. There have also been occasional lapses in the outfield, which is surprising, as all three regulars in the outfield are solid fielders with good speed. All of them are capable of making outstanding plays.

I don’t think it’s particularly surprising that Bryan Altman, playing primarily as a catcher after spending most of his college career at second base, would not be the second coming of Johnny Bench with the glove. From what I’ve seen, Altman actually does a lot of things well behind the plate. The one thing he doesn’t do well, as least from anecdotal evidence, is cleanly catch pitches.

The ball seems to pop out of his glove a lot when I watch the games, which would explain his 14 passed balls. The Citadel hasn’t had that many passed balls in a full season since 2003 (there were 8 all of last year).

At third base, David Greene has committed 18 errors. Greene committed 14 errors all of last season. His fielding percentage to date (.860) is substantially lower than it was last season (.903). This may be a “he was in a slump at the plate, and it affected his fielding” kind of thing. He’s not in a slump now, though, so maybe his fielding will improve as well.

Then there is second base, where Legare Jones has spent the most time, with Altman and Josh Pless also taking turns at the keystone position. Jones has 10 errors and a .921 fielding percentage. Pless, in limited duty, has an .882 fielding percentage.

Last year, the Bulldogs had 39.0 chances per game, almost a full chance more than this season. That team committed just 1.14 errors per game, more than half an error fewer per game than this year. This means, essentially, that Bulldog pitchers are having to get 2 and a half more outs per game this season (when you combine the increased errors with the reduced chances).

It’s hard enough to pitch in college baseball as it is, without having to get an extra out every third inning or so.

Pitching

This was supposed to be the Bulldogs’ strength this season, and it has been. Asher Wojciechowski was supposed to be one of the nation’s outstanding pitchers this season, and he has been. A critical reason for The Citadel’s success in conference play has been getting consistently excellent performances from Wojciechowski in the Friday night games.

Not only have the Bulldogs claimed victory in those games (save last week’s game against Davidson), Wojciechowski’s ability to pitch deep into games has allowed the bullpen to do most of its work in a two-game stretch, instead of three. Also, winning the series opener takes the pressure off the team for the remainder of the series.

This is why Matt Talley’s performance last Saturday (a complete-game shutout) may have been the most important individual start of the season. For the first time all year, the Bulldogs trailed in a league series after losing the Friday night game. Talley came up big under pressure, saved the bullpen, and set things up for The Citadel to claim the series by winning the second game of the doubleheader.

Wojciechowski’s numbers are uniformly great (.211 BAA, 98/19 K-BB in 73 IP, only 4 HR, 2.47 ERA). His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is actually a little high (.328), suggesting he has been a tad unlucky in that area (and that also may be a reflection of the defense behind him). Wojciechowski threw 138 pitches against Elon earlier this year, but has had only one 120+ pitching performance since then.

I suspect Wojciechowski is making himself a lot of money this season. He certainly should be.

I’m hoping Talley’s performance last Saturday is a harbinger of things to come. Last season Talley was 8-1 with a 3.42 ERA, but this season’s move into the weekend rotation (and against generally superior competition) has resulted in an ERA jump of over a full run (4.50) despite a better BAA (.251 this season; it was .273 in 2009).

Talley’s strikeout rate and walk rate are both better this season than last, and his BABIP is actually a touch better this year too, so he hasn’t been unlucky in that respect. Last season, though, he only allowed 14 extra base hits in 71 innings. This year in 60 innings he’s already allowed 19.

Also, teams have finally figured out that Talley has a great pickoff move (only 2 pickoffs so far in 2010 after having 10 in ’09). Eliminating the runners who were subsequently picked off would give him baserunners per inning totals almost exactly the same for ’09 and ’10.

Talley has also been hurt by the team’s defense. He has allowed a team-high 12 unearned runs. Talley has actually allowed two more runs than Michael Clevinger in the same amount of innings, despite having an ERA a full run and a third better than that of Clevinger.

Clevinger has done a respectable job as the Sunday starter for The Citadel, about as much as you could ask for a freshman put in that position. He has kept the team in the game most of the time, which is the primary expectation of a #3 starter. Clevinger has done an amazing job at preventing unearned runs (just one UER in 59 2/3 IP), a stat that jumps out at you when you read the pitching lines for The Citadel. Curt Schilling would be proud.

The Citadel has not had a lot of luck with starting pitching beyond the three weekend starters, which partly explains the lack of success in midweek games. T.J. Clarkson had an ERA of 3.92 last season; this year it’s 6.35, despite having very similar K/BB rates, hits allowed totals, and BAA. Clarkson, however, has allowed 6 home runs in only 34 innings after allowing just one (in 41 1/3 IP) all last season.

Austin Pritcher is a freshman who has started six games. He’s had a couple of bad outings which have really hurt his pitching line (6.89 ERA), but he has had his moments in relief, and could be a factor in tournament play (as could Clarkson, who has proven he’s capable of pitching well against quality opposition in the past).

The Bulldogs have had four pitchers get most of the bullpen duty this season. Matt Reifsnider is the long man out of the ‘pen, and he’s had a fine year. His numbers are up (in a good way) from last year in practically every category. What he’s done best is avoid walking people. Last season he walked 15 batters in 36 1/3 innings; this season, just 4 in 38 IP. That, combined with a much-improved BAA (.284; in ’09 it was .398) has dramatically improved his WHIP.

The two setup men for the Bulldogs are Raymond Copenhaver and Chris Boyce. None of Boyce’s numbers stand out as being exceptionally good, but he’s done a solid job just competing on the mound, and has managed to get some big outs along the way. As a result he’s 5-0. Only Asher Wojciechowski has more wins for The Citadel.

I believe Copenhaver is the pitcher most affected by the team’s defensive play. This is perhaps reflected in his BABIP of .361 (his BAA is .286). Last season Copenhaver’s BABIP was .327 (with a .284 BAA). What he does best is not allow extra base hits (just 3 in 20 2/3 IP, with only one a homer). Copenhaver struggled at times last season, but he’s been better this year, with an ERA more than a full run lower. I have to wonder if he’s actually been a little better than his results, based on that BABIP figure.

Drew Mahaffey had a great year in ’09 as the Bulldogs’ closer. This year he has really struggled, though, and what was a team strength now has to be considered a weakness, at least until he can put things together. The numbers do not lie. His BAA has gone up from .203 to .238, but more ominous are his K/BB totals. After striking out 71 and walking just 14 in 50 innings last year, this year he has already walked 18 in just 21 1/3 IP (against 22 Ks).

If the Bulldogs have designs on a long post-season run, I think getting Mahaffey back to near where he was last season is mandatory. I don’t know whether or not that’s possible. I just hope it’s not an injury situation.

Batting

This is the area where I thought the Bulldogs would struggle the most, but they’ve held their own. It’s not a deep team, with eight regulars who go to the post practically every day. DH Brad Felder has started 41 of the 43 games, yet he’s eighth on the team in starts.

There are two players in Fred Jordan’s lineup who weren’t really there last season who have made a big difference. One of them is Matt Simonelli, who had limited playing time last year because of injury. He’s back full-time this year and making it count (.952 OPS).

The other player who wasn’t around last year was Kyle Jordan. Well, at least this version of Kyle Jordan, the one with a respectable bat who can make the routine plays in the field. Last year’s version, the one with the sub-.500 OPS who led the team in strikeouts? Gone, and thankfully so. The younger Jordan does need to walk more and strike out less (8 BB/39 K).

Leadoff hitter Nick Orvin leads the team in OBP and slugging, as he has improved on what was an outstanding freshman season. He is the runaway leader on the team in walks, with 30. Orvin should be on the all-conference team.

David Greene appears to have rebounded from an early-season slump and is starting to move his numbers closer to what they were during his excellent freshman campaign. Greene is also walking more this year, a positive development that I’m hoping may also lead to an increase in power.

Bryan Altman’s power is not in question, as he is tied for the team lead in homers with Felder (nine each). Like Simonelli, I wish Altman walked a bit more, but also like Simonelli, he’s a contact hitter who doesn’t strike out much. Altman can also swipe a base (8-10 this year).

William Ladd is also having a solid year at the plate. He really needs to walk more, though (only four BB all season so far) to take full advantage of his speed on the bases. Ladd is surely one of the faster left fielders in the country. Ladd does lead the team in hit-by-pitches (11).

Brad Felder is not a high-average DH, but he has good power (and I wouldn’t be surprised to see his batting average continue to rise). He also has 10 steals, joining Simonelli and Orvin as double-digit base-stealers. His respectable .373 OBP has been built up in part by 10 hit-by-pitches.

Justin Mackert’s first season on the field has been a good one. He now has two home runs and looks to have the potential to hit quite a few more. He’s also not afraid to take a walk, although not quite at Orvin levels. He’s another Bulldog who is a threat to steal (9-11 SB).

The ninth position in the lineup has been in a state of flux. Legare Jones has seen the most time, starting 26 games at second base. He is only batting .235, however, and as mentioned has had his share of errors in the field. Jones has actually been better than that .235 figure suggests, though. He walks enough to have an OBP of .351, and 7 of his 19 hits have gone for extra bases. In other words, he gets on base at a decent clip and he has some pop in his bat.

Fred Jordan has lately been rotating Jones, Josh Pless, and Altman at second base (with Grant Richards catching when Altman goes to second). I would imagine this will continue, with Jones and Pless being in a platoon situation and Altman occasionally moving to second base as relief from the stress of catching every day.

—

Entering weekend play, The Citadel has an RPI of 31, per Boyd Nation. According to Nation, if The Citadel goes 10-4 in its last fourteen regular season games (12 of those 14 are SoCon games), it will remain in the top 32 of the RPI. A 7-7 mark would keep it in the top 45.

The Bulldogs’ last four SoCon opponents include the teams currently in second (College of Charleston), third (Samford), and fourth (Georgia Southern) place in the league — and all of those series will be on the road, beginning with this weekend’s trip to Birmingham to play Samford. The Citadel has a lot of work to do to win the league.

I think a 7-5 finish in league play would be good enough to win the regular season title (8-4 would be a mathematical certainty). 6-6 might be enough, depending on other results.

If The Citadel wins the SoCon regular season crown, I think that would guarantee the Bulldogs a place in the NCAAs, as it would be hard to leave out the regular season champ of a top-10 league. Possible, but not likely. The Citadel’s non-conference record isn’t so hot (12-13), but its record against top-50 opponents (6-6, or 6-5, depending on source) is solid.

Of course, if the Bulldogs win the conference tourney at Riley Park next month, they won’t need an at-large berth (for the record, The Citadel has never received an at-large bid to the regionals).

I just hope The Citadel finishes strong and leaves no doubt about its NCAA-worthiness. I’m ready to go to an NCAA regional again. It’s been too long since the last one for my liking.

Filed under: Baseball, The Citadel | Tagged: Asher Wojciechowski, Austin Pritcher, Brad Felder, Bryan Altman, Chris Boyce, Chris McGuiness, College of Charleston, David Greene, Davidson, Drew Mahaffey, Elon, Fred Jordan, Georgia Southern, Grant Richards, Josh Pless, Justin Mackert, Kendall Rogers, Kyle Jordan, Legare Jones, Matt Reifsnider, Matt Simonelli, Matt Talley, Michael Clevinger, Nick Orvin, Raymond Copenhaver, Richard Jones, Riley Park, Rivals.com, Samford, Sonny Meade, Southern Conference, T.J. Clarkson, The Citadel, William Ladd | 1 Comment »

Make it five in a row; The Citadel’s basketball team rolls along

Posted on February 19, 2010 by Sandlapper Spike

This is going to be one of my shorter posts. Apologies to anyone who actually follows the blog on a semi-regular basis, but it’s hard to write when under the effects of anesthesia. I was barely able to follow Thursday night’s game against Western Carolina, in which the Bulldogs played as good a half (the second) as they have all season. I wish I had been at full speed for that one, but I’ll take a 17-point win while groggy any day.

Anyway, Ed Conroy and company have won 5 straight games. Ed has figured out this February basketball thing, as the Bulldogs are 11-1 in the shortest month over the last two seasons. Last year, they lost their final game in February after winning six straight in the month (the final six games of last season’s 11-game winning streak). This year, the Bulldogs are 5-0 in the month with three games to go — UNC-Greensboro on Saturday in the home finale at McAlister Field House, followed by road games against Furman and Wofford.

Quick hits on the Western Carolina game:

It’s great to see Cosmo Morabbi getting his shot back. He made three-pointers from all over the court, setting a career high for makes (5). Zach Urbanus has been consistent most of the year, but if Morabbi and Austin Dahn (who had a tough night, but made a three near the game’s end) are also shooting well from outside, the Bulldogs can present some serious problems for opposing defenses along the perimeter.
Morabbi wasn’t just shooting from outside; he had three steals in the game as well.
The stat line doesn’t really show it, but Bryan Streeter had a very solid game last night, particularly defensively. He outplayed WCU’s post players all night, in my opinion. Some of his rebounds came in heavy traffic. He just needs to watch those elbows, especially on SoCon Saturdays when the officiating is, uh, interesting.
Harrison DuPont had another good game after a slow start. I kind of like combining his numbers with those of Bo Holston. If you do that, you get this line: 40 minutes, 17 points (5-11 FG, 6-8 FT; DuPont also made a 3), 14 rebounds (6 offensive), 2 assists, 3 turnovers. [Also 6 fouls, so pretend the combo player is in the NBA.] That’s very good production over the course of a game, obviously. DuPont should be a serious candidate for the All-SoCon freshman team.
It wasn’t Cameron Wells’ best night, as it took him 14 FG attempts to score 13 points. He also had four turnovers (he did have 5 assists, though). Despite that, The Citadel won by 17. That’s a very good sign going forward, especially after being down 11 points at one point in the first half. Wells isn’t going to be “off” too often.
The Bulldogs trailed 25-14 with 5:34 remaining in the half. For the rest of the game, The Citadel outscored WCU 59-31. Remember, WCU has a win this season over Louisville at Freedom Hall. It’s a team that has some talent.
The Bulldogs were 7-10 from beyond the arc in the second half. You can win a lot of games shooting 70% from three-land in the second half.
Western Carolina’s leading scorer this season, Brandon Giles, was 0-6 from the field, committed four turnovers, and did not score against The Citadel.

—

Last season, UNC-Greensboro won only five games all season, four in Southern Conference play. So far this season, UNCG has won five games, four in Southern Conference play. The Spartans actually started their conference campaign with a 33-point win at Samford, but that was definitely an outlier. UNCG is now 4-11 in the league and has lost five straight SoCon outings, although they’ve only been blown out in one of those five, so it’s not like the Spartans haven’t been competitive lately. They just haven’t been winning.

UNC has a fine player in 6’5″ senior Ben Stywall, who averages 14.4 points per game and 10.3 rebounds per contest. That’s right, he averages a double-double. Stywall scored 22 points and grabbed 11 boards in UNCG’s most recent game, a 70-65 loss to Elon. He has had some monster games this year, most of them in losses, including 26/19 against Samford, 21/14 against the College of Charleston, and 24/14 against Western Carolina. In that CofC game, 11 of Stywall’s rebounds came on the offensive end.

One reason Stywall gets a lot of offensive boards is because he gets a lot of chances. UNCG is the poorest shooting team in the conference in league play, shooting just 38.9% from the field. Stywall is the only Spartan getting significant minutes who is shooting better than 41%. Kyle Randall is a 6’2″ freshman who has taken only one fewer shot than Stywall, but he’s only shooting 33%. The Spartans have two three-point gunners (Mikko Koivisto and Kendall Toney); neither is shooting better than 37% from the field (or better than 34% from beyond the arc).

The Citadel should win this game. Not because it’s the last home game of the season (which the Bulldogs actually lost last year), but because it’s a much better team that is playing its best basketball of the season. The Bulldogs need to maintain their excellent perimeter defense and control Stywall on the glass (they aren’t going to completely stop him). UNCG likes to play at a higher tempo (averaging over 70 possessions per game in league play), so as usual The Citadel must control the pace.

The game is on SportSouth, the second Saturday in a row the Bulldogs will be featured on television. The start time is 1 pm ET; if you can’t be at the game (like me, unfortunately), you should be watching on TV. This team has now set the all-time school record for most victories over a two-year span with 35 (breaking a record set in 1979-80). I’m hoping they add at least seven more games to that mark…

Filed under: Basketball, The Citadel | Tagged: Austin Dahn, Ben Stywall, Bo Holston, Brandon Giles, Bryan Streeter, Cameron Wells, College of Charleston, Cosmo Morabbi, Ed Conroy, Elon, Furman, Harrison Dupont, Kendall Toney, Kyle Randall, Louisville, McAlister Field House, Mikko Koivisto, Samford, Southern Conference, SportSouth, The Citadel, UNC-Greensboro, Western Carolina, Wofford, Zach Urbanus | 1 Comment »

Lose two, win three: the pattern changes for The Citadel’s hoops squad

Posted on February 10, 2010 by Sandlapper Spike

I was starting to think the season was going to take a serious turn for the worse after the Bulldogs went 0-2 on the Georgia Southern/Davidson road swing, blowing sizable leads in both games. The loss in Statesboro was the nadir of the 2009-10 campaign, with the number 21 figuring prominently — a 21-point lead blown, thanks mostly to 21 turnovers (on only 66 possessions — yikes) and 21 fouls. GSU took advantage of all the fouling, hitting a staggering 27 of its 28 free throw attempts.

(The Bulldogs also had 21 rebounds in that game. Really, after the game somebody from The Citadel should have caught a plane to Vegas and started playing blackjack.)

If that loss didn’t all but eliminate any chance of The Citadel garnering a first-round bye in the Southern Conference tournament, the tough OT setback to the Wildcats almost surely did. Despite blowing another early lead, this wasn’t as bad an effort by the Bulldogs. Ultimately, The Citadel didn’t shoot well enough to win the game (39% from the field, including 27% from beyond the arc). The Bulldogs did a much better job protecting the basketball (nine turnovers) but could not overcome Davidson’s rebounding advantage (including 11 offensive boards). To beat a good team on the road, The Citadel needed a few more good things to happen.

The team could have folded at that point. It didn’t, though. The day after the Davidson game, Ed Conroy made a series of Tweets. Tying them together, they read like this:

Tough trip home. Our guys really take losses hard which is why they always bounce back. Love this group. We really competed – great game.

Our job as coaches is to get prepared for practice because these guys will be focused on getting better tomorrow. They are determined and resilient. I can’t wait to get back and clip this film so we can show our guys what we need to improve on. Wells and Urbanus will have everyone ready to focus tomorrow. That’s all you can ask! Really thankful I don’t have to worry about that. Go Dogs!

Well, they were as good as his word when it came to being resilient. In the next game, against Samford, The Citadel trailed by 11 points with a little over 10 minutes remaining. 11 points is a lot to make up for a team like The Citadel, especially when playing Samford, a team that likes to operate at an even slower pace than the cadets.

Samford, like all SoCon teams, was determined to stop Cameron Wells, and it succeeded in holding him to 8 points. However, for the first time in a while, Wells’ teammates picked up the scoring slack. Austin Dahn and Harrison DuPont combined for 28 points, and freshman Ben Cherry hit three big three-pointers. The Citadel came back and won.

For the first time all season the Bulldogs claimed victory in a game despite committing more turnovers than the opposition. I think that can be at least partly attributed to the more balanced scoring (and better shooting). With more than one player able to contribute offensively, it could be argued that the team’s margin of error is not quite so small.

The Citadel followed that up with another home victory, a deserved triumph over UT-Chattanooga, the first time the Bulldogs had beaten the Mocs on the hardwood since 2002. Of course, The Citadel would have won the earlier matchup in Chattanooga if not for a miracle shot by Keegan Bell. Bell had no magic on demand in this game, however, putting up a goose egg in the scoring column despite playing 31 minutes.

On the other hand, Mocs forward Ridge McKeither, who had missed the first game against the Bulldogs, finished with 13 points and 18 rebounds, and probably should have been the focus of the UTC offense more often. Instead the Mocs hoisted up 35 three-pointers, making just 8 of them. UTC also struggled from the charity stripe (10-20) and committed five more turnovers than the Bulldogs.

UTC did outrebound The Citadel 41-31, but the poor outside shooting (for which The Citadel’s perimeter defense should take a great deal of credit) doomed the Mocs. Meanwhile, Zach Urbanus, who has historically enjoyed shooting three-pointers against UTC — he had 7 threes in a game against the Mocs as a freshman — scored 24 points, thanks mostly to, yes, 7 made three-pointers.

Austin Dahn also had a good game, making three shots from beyond the arc, dishing out four assists, and not committing a turnover in 32 minutes of action. Then there was the emergence of a new force for the Bulldogs…The Bo Holston Experience.

Holston, a 6’4″ sophomore from Olney, Maryland, had his career game (so far) against UT-Chattanooga, grabbing nine rebounds, including five critical offensive boards, to go along with 7 points and one memorable steal. Late in the game, with The Citadel unaccountably struggling to hold onto the ball, Holston turned the ball over on a bad pass in the paint. UTC raced up the court with the basketball, looking to break for an easy hoop — only to have Holston run down the ballhandler and take it right back. That was basically the game-ending play.

Before that game Holston had appeared in 13 games for the Bulldogs, scoring a total of 18 points. Against UTC, though, he suddenly morphed into The Bo Holston Experience, an unexpected natural phenomenon not easily explained. His hustle and spirited play helped offset (along with the efforts of Dahn and Urbanus) another tough shooting night for Wells, who was 1-10 from the floor. For a second consecutive game, the Bulldogs survived a less-than-stellar offensive outing from their best player.

(They also survived some sketchy officiating, as it was another Saturday night in the SoCon. For a while, Cosmo Morabbi looked more like Vito Anterfuermo than a basketball player, but no autopsy, no foul.)

The Citadel hadn’t won three straight games all season until Monday night’s satisfying win over the College of Charleston. With that win, the Bulldogs remain undefeated at Carolina First Arena. The Citadel is 2-0 in the building, as opposed to, say, UNC, which is winless in the facility (after losing in OT to the CofC earlier this season).

Incidentally, next year The Citadel is scheduled to play four games at Carolina First Arena, one against the Cougars and three others as part of the Charleston Classic. It’s nice to know the Bulldogs are comfortable playing there.

As for the game on Monday night, The Citadel against took advantage of a team having a cold shooting night from three-point land, as the Cougars were 6-23 from beyond the arc. The Bulldogs’ excellent perimeter D harassed CofC star Andrew Goudelock into a 1-8 shooting night from outside. The Cougars, like UTC, seemed unwilling to pound the ball inside as often as might have been expected, although Bryan Streeter probably deserves credit for solid post defense (notably his positioning).

Wells scored 15 points in this game, not quite at his scoring average, but he did have five assists. Urbanus’ two huge three-pointers in crunch time provided the Bulldogs with a little breathing room, and DuPont and Holston had a combined line of 39 minutes, 23 points (on 10-18 shooting), 10 rebounds and only 2 turnovers. That works.

One thing about Cameron Wells: maybe he hasn’t been putting as many points on the board as usual, but he’s still a major offensive force, as other teams focus on him at the risk of letting other Bulldogs get good looks. In the last three games, the other players for The Citadel have taken advantage of those opportunities, many of them directly provided by Wells, who in those three outings has 19 assists (against only 5 turnovers).

—

As I noted earlier, I think the losses to GSU and Davidson probably mean that The Citadel has little to no chance of a first-round SoCon tourney bye. However, the last three games have given hope that perhaps the team could arrive in Charlotte with a good deal of momentum. Besides, the bye last year didn’t exactly help the Bulldogs much. (I would still want it, of course. It’s easier to win three games in three nights than four games in four nights.)

The Citadel has a chance of having a winning season, both overall and in SoCon play, both of which would be fine accomplishments, given the history of the program. Only twice in the last 45 years has The Citadel enjoyed consecutive winning seasons.

Also, over the last two years the Bulldogs have won 33 games (with a number of games remaining this season, obviously). Only once in school history has The Citadel won more games over a two year-span — 1979-80, when the Bulldogs won 34 games.

—

After playing three games in five days, The Citadel has some time off, playing just one game in the next ten days. That will come Saturday at Elon. The Phoenix are only 6-17 but are improving as the season goes along, and have two straight league wins as proof, having won on the road at Furman and at home against Western Carolina. Elon also has a win over UT-Chattanooga. Last season The Citadel lost a tough game at Elon, 56-54, before gaining a season split at McAlister Field House (60-58).

As for this season’s Phoenix squad, it’s not a good shooting team (10th in the league in FG%, next-to-last in 3FG% and FT%). Elon plays a slightly more uptempo game than does The Citadel, although that’s true of every team in the SoCon except Samford. The Phoenix do a reasonable job of protecting the basketball, but are not a particularly strong defensive outfit (and like the Bulldogs, do not have good rebounding stats).

In the win over Furman, 6’2″ guard T.J. Douglas had 21 points and 13 (!) rebounds. Douglas likes to shoot from outside, as he has 123 three-point attempts this season, but only 10 trips to the free throw line. Another guy not afraid to shoot from beyond the arc is Drew Spradlin, who had 14 points against the Paladins, and led the Phoenix with 16 against WCU. In that game, five Elon players scored in double figures.

—

The Citadel should have the confidence to go on the road and get a win, but it won’t be easy. Then again, it never is.

Filed under: Basketball, The Citadel | Tagged: Andrew Goudelock, Austin Dahn, Ben Cherry, Bo Holston, Bryan Streeter, Cameron Wells, Carolina First Arena, Charleston Classic, College of Charleston, Cosmo Morabbi, Davidson, Drew Spradlin, Ed Conroy, Elon, Furman, Georgia Southern, Harrison Dupont, Keegan Bell, McAlister Field House, North Carolina, Ridge McKeither, Samford, Southern Conference, T.J. Douglas, The Citadel, UT-Chattanooga, Vito Anterfuermo, Western Carolina, Zach Urbanus | Leave a comment »

Evaluating The Citadel’s basketball team after six SoCon games

Posted on January 18, 2010 by Sandlapper Spike

The Citadel split its most recent four games, all in league play, which wasn’t so bad when you consider three of them were on the road, but it could have been much better — and it could have been much worse. All four games were close, with two coming down to the final possession. The Bulldogs were burned on a last-ditch three-pointer by UT-Chattanooga on Thursday, but recovered to outlast Samford on Saturday by one solitary point.

That Samford game, by the way, was not exactly a track meet. The final score (51-50) reflected a game in which The Citadel had 51 possessions, while Samford had 52. This was not a surprise, as the two teams are among the four slowest-paced outfits in Division I, both preferring an ultra-patient approach. It’s particularly the case with Samford, which for the season is averaging just 57 possessions per game, easily the lowest number in the country. The Citadel, at barely 60 possessions per contest, is fourth-lowest.

The slower pace definitely helps The Citadel, which is much more competitive in games in which it can control the tempo. The importance of each possession in these types of games is something to which the Bulldogs have become accustomed, and is something not all opponents have grasped. This has sometimes given The Citadel an advantage when playing teams that are perhaps more athletic but not as disciplined.

I know what some people are wondering about, though. Right now The Citadel is 9-9 overall, 3-3 in the league. This is after last season’s 20-win campaign (which included 15 SoCon victories). What is not going right this year that went right last year?

Well, first it should be noted that the Bulldogs are almost exactly where they were last year at this time in terms of record. Last season after 18 games The Citadel was 8-10, 3-4 in the league, coming off a loss at Wofford. The Bulldogs then proceeded to win 11 games in a row.

I’m going to make a not-so-bold prediction now, which is that The Citadel is not about to embark on a 11-game winning streak. Not this year, anyway. That isn’t to say the team can’t put together a good midseason run, but there are issues that may not be easily solvable.

When looking at the team statistics, the first thing that jumps out at you is the three-point shooting, both offensively and defensively. At first I was concerned with the defensive stats, but upon further review (stealing an NFL term) they aren’t all that bad. Offensive output from beyond the arc, though, is another story. The Citadel is struggling shooting the three-pointer, and I think a lot of that has to do with…interior play.

Last season in conference play, the Bulldogs only allowed opponents to shoot 28.9% from three-point land, which led the league. This season that number has risen significantly, to 36.8%. However, almost all of that increase is attributable to one game, Davidson’s flukish (well, I think it was flukish) 15-27 night from beyond the arc. If you take that game out of the equation, in five other SoCon matchups The Citadel’s defensive 3FG% is 31.1%, still a little higher than last season but acceptable.

Then there are the offensive numbers from behind the three-point line. Last season The Citadel shot 36.7% from three-land in SoCon play; this year after six games that number is 28.5%, which is next-to-last in the league. That includes a 10-22 shooting performance against Georgia Southern, which is the poorest team in the conference at defending the three. The Bulldogs were solid from beyond the arc against Appalachian State (9-22) but otherwise have been mostly dreadful from deep, including 3-18 against the College of Charleston and 5-34 against UTC.

Almost as disturbing as the number of misses against the Mocs were the number of attempts, which points up another curious statistic. The Citadel is actually averaging more points scored per game via three-pointers this season (38.7% of total points scored) than it did last year (31.1%) despite not shooting as well from outside.

Last year the Bulldogs only had four conference games (out of 20) in which they shot worse than 31% from three-point land. This year they’ve been below that mark three times in six games. Despite the lack of success, the Bulldogs are averaging 3 more three-point attempts per game this season than last. So why is the three-point scoring more prominent?

The answer, I would suggest, lies in the Bulldogs’ lack of productivity inside. The easiest way to illustrate this is The Citadel’s below-average 47.5% shooting from inside the arc (last year in league play that number was over 50%). However, I think the real issue is the lack of made free throws. This is where the Bulldogs really miss Demetrius Nelson.

Last season 21.2% of The Citadel’s points came at the charity stripe, which was excellent (the national average is 18%). This year, though, the Bulldogs are only getting 13.94% of their points from the line. That’s a big difference, especially for a team that has a limited number of possessions per game.

The Citadel averages 60.4 points per game. 13.94% of 60.4 is 8.4, so the Bulldogs are picking up a little over 8 points per game from the foul line. Now, let’s say they were getting 21.2% of their points from free throw shooting. That would be about 13 points per game. Those extra 5 points make a big difference. Last season The Citadel was 6-3 in games decided by 5 points or less. Three of those games came during the 11-game win streak.

This year the Bulldogs are 1-2 in such games, and that doesn’t count the six-point loss to the CofC. In that game, The Citadel shot only 8 total free throws. In the Bulldogs’ two victories over the Cougars last season, the Citadel shot a combined 40 free throws.

The problem is that I don’t know if The Citadel can increase its free throw productivity. Nelson averaged over 5 made free throws per game last season, which was more than every other player on the roster combined, save Cameron Wells. This season Wells is averaging almost exactly the same number of made FTs per game as he did last year (3.3), but no one else is drawing fouls and shooting free throws.

The two primary inside players for The Citadel, Joe Wolfinger and Bryan Streeter, each are averaging one made free throw per game. When compared to Nelson, that’s a big differential to overcome. The essential dilemma for The Citadel is that unlike Nelson, neither is a true post threat.

Wolfinger has the size but not the strength or intuitiveness for the role. Streeter has strength and verve, but lacks size and is not the most offensively skilled of players; he is also a poor free throw shooter. He has made some strides this season in FT%, though, and has also improved his turnover rate by over 50%.

I’ve mentioned before that I have been impressed with Mike Groselle in his brief appearances for The Citadel, and he may be the future in the paint. However, his development has been affected by an ankle injury, and at any rate it is probably a bit much to ask a true freshman to play major minutes in the post.

My guess is that as the season goes along Ed Conroy and his coaching staff will try to devise more ways to get players to the foul line. Whether that means Cameron Wells (or another guard/swingman type) posting up more, I have no idea.

Without the “free” points, The Citadel is going to have to just be that much better at everything else it does offensively. So far the Bulldogs have done a good job avoiding turnovers (the turnover rate is actually better right now than it was last season), and the rebounding, while not great, hasn’t been a major problem. The Citadel has to continue to improve on the offensive boards, especially if it continues to struggle from outside.

There will be more missed shots, and thus more chances to grab offensive boards. Those chances need to be taken; as I noted earlier, every possession is important. Someone who is providing value in that respect is Harrison DuPont, who has 11 offensive rebounds in his last three games, which is outstanding.

The lack of offensive game on the interior is probably a factor in the less-than-stellar outside shooting. Without the threat on the inside, opponents can concentrate on stopping the Bulldogs’ marksmen.

Zach Urbanus is currently in a bit of a slump from outside, shooting only 9-39 in his last seven games, including 3-19 in a two-game stretch against the CofC and UTC. He was 1-2 against Samford, though, so perhaps becoming more selective (which is his general mode anyway) will get him back in the groove.

I’m hoping that both Urbanus and Cosmo Morabbi start shooting better from beyond the arc. Morabbi went four straight games without a made three-pointer before hitting one against Samford. The Bulldogs really need him to start making that 3-ball from the corner. Conversely, Austin Dahn appears to be back on track from outside. Dahn needs to improve his decision-making on offense just a bit, though, as of late he has been a touch turnover-prone.

Also getting time in the rotation is Daniel Eykyn, who seems to be a “glue guy” of sorts for Conroy; passes the ball, plays defense, hustles, lets other players rest, etc. He averages one turnover every 35 minutes of play, best on the team for players with over 100 total minutes played (also taking care of the ball in limited time: Groselle and Ben Cherry, who has no turnovers in 66 minutes of action).

As for Wells, he continues his impressive campaign, which looks a lot like last year’s impressive campaign. He’s currently averaging almost 18 points per game, to go along with about 5 rebounds and 4 assists per contest. He’s on the floor for 34+ minutes per game (just behind Urbanus for the team lead; both are among the national leaders in minutes played) and has close to a 2-1 assist/turnover ratio.

Wells has pilfered almost two steals per game and even leads the team in blocked shots (albeit with only five; The Citadel is tied for last in the country in blocked shots per game, sharing that less-than-ideal distinction with Nicholls State).

—

Next up for the Bulldogs are two home games, one on Thursday against Wofford and the second on Saturday against Furman. After those two contests, The Citadel will have played every one of its divisional opponents at home, so the stretch run will include a lot of tough road games. Holding serve at home is important, particularly in what I believe to be an improved Southern Conference. The Citadel has already lost two home SoCon games and can’t afford to drop many more at McAlister Field House.

It’s not going to be easy. First up on Thursday, as mentioned, is Wofford. I believe Wofford may be the best team in the league, although the Terriers started 0-2 in conference play. The loss at Western Carolina was understandable, but Wofford followed that up by losing at home to Appalachian State. Since then, though, the Terriers have reeled off four straight SoCon victories, the most impressive of which probably being a 68-62 home win over Davidson.

It’s out of conference where Wofford has made its best impression. The Terriers have wins over Georgia and South Carolina, not to mention a 3-point loss at Pittsburgh which looks better ever day.

The Terriers are a deep team (10 players get 10+ minutes per game; 7 of them get 17+ mpg) led by 6’6″ junior Noah Dahlman, one of the league’s best players. Dahlman is averaging 17.7 points per game (the only Terrier averaging double figures in scoring), and shoots better than 60% from the field. He had 20 against Pitt and 19 against South Carolina.

He’s not the only guy to watch, though, as evidenced by the win over Georgia. Dahlman had 11 points (in only 21 minutes) in that game, but three other Terriers chipped in 10+ points to enable the Terriers to win, led by 6’8″ senior Corey Godzinski, who had 13.

Godzinski scored 12 points in last year’s game at McAlister, one of two games Wofford won over The Citadel last season (Dahlman had 17 in both contests). The Terriers proved to be a tough matchup for the Bulldogs in 2008-09. I suspect the same will be true this year.

Wofford isn’t a big three-point shooting team, although it is an efficient squad from closer range. Wofford is a good passing team, leading the conference in assists per game. The Terriers do a good job defending the outside shot, and also force more than their fair share of turnovers. Wofford does turn the ball over itself a bit more than the norm. The Terriers average 71.3 possessions per game in league play.

Furman looks to be much more competitive this season; after only winning 4 of 20 league games last year, the Paladins are 3-3 in the conference play entering this week’s play. Like The Citadel, Furman has a road win against Appalachian State and a home victory over Georgia Southern. The Paladins also have a win at Elon.

Furman is a junior-dominated team with two double-figure scorers, Amu Saaka (16.7 ppg) and Jordan Miller (15.2 ppg). The 6’6″ Saaka, who started his career at South Florida, scored 34 points in a loss to Davidson and is also averaging 6.8 rebounds per contest. Miller is a 6’2″ guard who had 15 points and 6 assists in the Paladins’ recent win over Georgia Southern.

Furman has been good defending the three-point shot in league play, which might trouble The Citadel. On the other hand, the Paladins are both turnover-prone and not particularly adept at creating turnovers. Furman averages 72+ possessions per game, so the battle to control tempo will be key.

—

One more thing: at halftime of the Furman game on Saturday, The Citadel will honor the jersey of Regan Truesdale, two-time Southern Conference player of the year and the school’s all-time leading scorer. The Citadel honored Art Musselman in similar fashion last year. This is part of Ed Conroy’s long-range plan for developing a hoops tradition at The Citadel, and I think it’s a really good idea. Congratulations to Regan Truesdale, who absolutely deserves the honor.

Filed under: Basketball, The Citadel | Tagged: Amu Saaka, Appalachian State, Art Musselman, Austin Dahn, Ben Cherry, Bryan Streeter, Cameron Wells, College of Charleston, Corey Godzinski, Cosmo Morabbi, Daniel Eykyn, Davidson, Demetrius Nelson, Ed Conroy, Elon, Furman, Georgia, Georgia Southern, Harrison Dupont, Joe Wolfinger, Jordan Miller, McAlister Field House, Mike Groselle, Noah Dahlman, Pittsburgh, Regan Truesdale, Samford, South Carolina, South Florida, Southern Conference, The Citadel, UT-Chattanooga, Wofford, Zach Urbanus | Leave a comment »

New year, new hoops post

Posted on January 5, 2010 by Sandlapper Spike

Conference play goes into high gear starting on Wednesday with the Bulldogs’ trip to Boone to face Appalachian State, followed by a matchup at McAlister with the College of Charleston on Saturday. The next week will feature more road action as the Bulldogs make the western swing through the league, taking on UT-Chattanooga on the 14th and Samford on the 16th.

The Citadel is .500 right now no matter how you look at it, at 7-7 overall, 1-1 in the SoCon. Last year at this time The Citadel was 6-7 overall, 1-1 in the league.

Facts, observations, etc.:

– The Citadel’s starting lineup against Savannah State included no players hailing from east of the Mississippi River, which is decidedly unusual (if not unprecedented).

– Zach Urbanus is averaging 35. 7 minutes per game, which is in the top 25 nationally. I worry a little about him and Cameron Wells (34.1 mpg) wearing down over the course of the season, but they logged major minutes last season too, and it didn’t seem to bother them.

– Bulldog opponents have shot better from 40% from three-point land on four occasions. The Citadel has lost all four of those games.

– The Citadel’s game notes for the Appalachian State game include the statistic that the Bulldogs are 14th nationally in fouls committed per game, at 15.0 per contest. However, the flip side to that is The Citadel’s opponents have only committed two more fouls than the Bulldogs (212-210).

– The fouling statistics are really just a function of The Citadel’s pace of play. At 62.3 possessions per game, the Bulldogs are among the ten slowest-playing teams in Division I.

– So while The Citadel is 22nd nationally in fewest turnovers per game, it is actually 103rd in D-1 in terms of turnover rate (which is still not bad; it’s about where the Bulldogs were last season).

– Let’s talk about offensive rebounding for a moment. The Citadel has struggled at times on the boards this season, and it’s mainly attributable to the Bulldogs not getting their fair share of offensive rebounds.

Joe Wolfinger has 25 offensive boards this season. Now, that leads the team, but on the other hand, Wolfinger has played 339 minutes so far; he’s averaging one offensive board every 13.5 minutes on the floor. Bryan Streeter has 18 offensive rebounds in 255 minutes (one every 14.2 minutes).

Those are the guys you would expect to get the majority of the offensive caroms, and they have — but on a per-minute basis, they haven’t been as effective as Ed Conroy might like. Nobody on the team is actually bringing in an exceptional percentage of offensive rebounds (the best per-minute performer in the category is Mike Groselle, who in limited time has grabbed one every 9.1 minutes).

This is where the Bulldogs really miss John Brown. Last season Brown had an excellent offensive rebounding campaign, averaging one such board every 9.9 minutes (and he played 537 minutes). At least one member of the current edition of the Bulldogs needs to repeat (or at least approach repeating) that effort — either that or The Citadel has to significantly increase its shooting percentage, which is unlikely.

– Wolfinger is shooting 44.2% from the floor, but he’s under 40% against Division I competition. He has only had four games this season in which he has shot better than 50% from the field — against Kenyon, UVA-Wise, Missouri State, and Maryland-Eastern Shore.

Wolfinger has struggled in the two SoCon games. Here is hoping that he gets better as the second half of the season begins, both offensively and defensively. He could still be a key cog in the rotation, but perhaps not as an offensive focal point.

– Although Wolfinger is a 7-footer, the Bulldog who appears most comfortable as an offensive post player is Groselle, who suffered an ankle injury that limited his time on the court the last few weeks. If healthy, I would not be surprised if Groselle’s minutes increase markedly as the season progresses.

– Another freshman, Harrison DuPont, got his first career start against Savannah State (as part of the all-Western starting lineup) and shows potential to be an impact player. He has played 30+ minutes in each of the last two games, scoring 14 points against Houston and 11 against Savannah State. He had six turnovers against Houston, but other than that did well in both games, shooting better than 50% from the field and picking up a few rebounds along the way.

– In nine games as a starter, Austin Dahn shot 15.6% from three-point land. In five games coming off the bench, he is shooting 47.8% from beyond the arc. Advantage, Ed Conroy.

– Bryan Streeter also has some improved statistics after being switched from the starting lineup. His rebounding rates have almost doubled. His free throw shooting has even improved (albeit that’s a very small sample size).

Streeter is shooting 58.8% from the line so far this season (and was 5-6 against Savannah State). That may not seem impressive, but it’s a big change for the better when compared to last season, when Streeter only made 16 free throws in 44 attempts (36.4%).

—

The upcoming league games will be tough, considering three are on the road and the one home game is against the College of Charleston, which beat North Carolina on Monday night. Last season The Citadel was a combined 5-2 against the four teams.

The Bulldogs swept Appalachian State in two tight games (one in OT, the other by two points). The Citadel also swept the College of Charleston in two contests, neither of which was particularly close, something the Cougars will surely remember.

The Citadel lost at home to UT-Chattanooga, and had a disappointing split with Samford — disappointing in the sense that while Charleston’s Bulldogs dominated the Birmingham Bulldogs in the regular-season matchup at Samford, in the conference tourney quarterfinals Samford put a quick end to The Citadel’s championship hopes.

The SoCon looks to be very competitive this season, with a lot of evenly-matched teams. The Citadel’s 7-7 overall record is in line with the records of its next four opponents, which have current records of 7-6 (Appy), 8-6 (UTC), 8-6 (CofC), and 6-8 (Samford). Other conference teams with similar records: Davidson (7-8), Furman (7-6), and Wofford (8-7). On the other hand, Western Carolina is 11-2 (with a win at Louisville) while Elon, Georgia Southern, and UNC-Greensboro are a combined 8-33.

I’m hoping for an entertaining conference race. My definition of entertaining is one in which The Citadel is in or near the lead…

Filed under: Basketball, The Citadel | Tagged: Appalachian State, Austin Dahn, Bryan Streeter, Cameron Wells, College of Charleston, Davidson, Ed Conroy, Elon, Furman, Georgia Southern, Harrison Dupont, Houston, Joe Wolfinger, John Brown, Kenyon, Louisville, Maryland-Eastern Shore, McAlister Field House, Mike Groselle, Missouri State, North Carolina, Samford, Southern Conference, The Citadel, UNC-Greensboro, UVA-Wise, Western Carolina, Wofford, Zach Urbanus | Leave a comment »

Football, Game 10: The Citadel vs. UT-Chattanooga

Posted on November 13, 2009 by Sandlapper Spike

Note: it can be difficult to figure out what to call the athletic teams of the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga. Recently the school began using a ‘C’ mark, for “Chattanooga”. The university’s teams have variously been referred to over the years as “UT-Chattanooga”, “Tennessee-Chattanooga”, “UTC”, and “Chattanooga”.

The nickname/mascot history is even more tangled. A “moccasin” used to be a snake, then a shoe, then a cartoon Cherokee Indian called ‘Chief Moccanooga’, and now a mockingbird train conductor (and “moccasin” has morphed into “moc”, for mockingbird).

There is an explanatory page on the school’s website. The page includes a quotation from Jimmy Fallon. As you may have guessed, the quote is not very funny.

In the post that follows, I will call the school either “UT-Chattanooga”, or “UTC”, because that’s what I’ve always called it, and I see no particular reason to change.

—

Around this time last year The Citadel played UT-Chattanooga in Charleston. It was Homecoming for the Bulldogs, and everyone expected a big win, since the Mocs were 1-9 (and would eventually finish 1-11). At that time I wrote about how UTC had collapsed as a program after consistently challenging for league honors in its first 10-15 years in the Southern Conference.

Well, The Citadel did win that day, but barely, letting a team playing out the string with a lame-duck coach hang around and nearly steal the victory. The Bulldogs survived thanks to Andre Roberts’ last-minute punt return TD, but despite winning the game, it was almost as poor a showing as The Citadel had for this year’s Homecoming.

UT-Chattanooga replaced Rodney Allison with Russ Huesman, who basically has the ideal background for a UTC head coach. Huesman played high school football at famed Moeller High School in Cincinnati for Gerry Faust, who was destined to become a much-maligned coach for Notre Dame (albeit one who never lost to Navy). Huesman then played college football for the Mocs, with his first two years under Joe Morrison and his last two under Bill “Brother” Oliver.

Huesman was a longtime assistant at William & Mary, where he coached the secondary (Huesman was a DB himself at UTC) and was later the defensive coordinator. Players he coached while with the Tribe include longtime NFL interception magnet Darren Sharper, Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin, and Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator Sean McDermott. That’s not a bad list of guys to have as references.

He then moved to Memphis for several seasons, including a stretch as recruiting coordinator for the Tigers, before spending five seasons as the defensive coordinator for Richmond, the defending FCS champions.

That’s a nice resume for any prospective head coach at the FCS level; being an alum is an even bigger bonus. Huesman seems to have given the program some much-needed enthusiasm. Home attendance has increased significantly, with three of the ten biggest crowds in Finley Stadium history so far this season. There was even a bonfire on Wednesday night.

Another thing Huesman did was bring in a transfer from Tennessee to play quarterback. B.J. Coleman has had a solid season for the Mocs, nothing flashy stats-wise but generally getting the job done.

Coleman has thrown fourteen touchdowns against six interceptions, although he did throw three picks last week against Appalachian State. Five of his six interceptions for the season, in fact, have come in the last three games. Coleman is a sophomore who will have two more years of eligibility after this season.

The Vols transfer has spread the ball around, although his favorite target is definitely Blue Cooper, who has 68 receptions and could conceivably make the All-SoCon squad ahead of Andre Roberts (Elon’s Terrell Hudgins is a lock for the other first-team spot at wide receiver).

UTC suffered a blow when running back Bryan Fitzgerald was injured and lost for the season. Freshman Chris Awuah is the leading rusher for the Mocs, but he is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry. UTC is last in the league in rushing offense.

UTC has respectable, if not eye-popping, defensive statistics across the board, generally ranking in the upper half of the SoCon in most categories for conference-only games. The Mocs have struggled, however, in defending 3rd-down conversions; the Mocs D is 7th in the league (The Citadel is 8th in the league, ahead of only Furman). Another sore spot for the defense is red zone conversion rate; UTC is last in the SoCon, and has allowed 17 touchdowns in 25 opponents’ possessions inside the 20.

The Mocs are tied for the lead in interceptions in conference play with eight; free safety Jordan Tippet has five of his own.

One defensive stat that is very impressive for UTC: sacks. The Mocs have 24 sacks on the season; their 16 sacks in league play in second-best in the conference. The primary sack-master is right defensive end Josh Beard, who has 10.5 of them so far this year. His partner in crime on the other side of the line, freshman DE Joshua Williams, has 6.

Despite the mediocre 3rd-down defense numbers and lack of a rushing game, UTC leads the league in time of possession. The Mocs don’t hurt themselves with penalties (second in the SoCon). UTC is next-to-last in net punting, but features an outstanding placekicker in Craig Camay, who is 13-16 converting field goals this year, with a long of 52. Camay is also a weapon for onside kicks; the Mocs have recovered four of five onside kick attempts in league action.

—

A few other odds and ends:

— I was surprised to find out that The Citadel is UT-Chattanooga’s most common opponent. Saturday’s game will be the 43rd meeting between the two schools. The school in second place on the Mocs most-played list? Tennessee, which has faced UTC on 41 occasions. The Vols are 37-2-2 in those games.

— UTC is 5-4, but if it has dreams of a winning season, it probably needs to beat The Citadel. Next week, the Mocs play Alabama. Yikes.

Tangent: what is with the SEC and these late-season matchups against FCS schools? Last week, there were four such games: Tennessee Tech-Georgia, Furman-Auburn, Northern Arizona-Mississippi, and Eastern Kentucky-Kentucky.

Last year, of course, The Citadel closed out its season by playing Florida. Why aren’t these games being played in the first couple of weeks of the season? I hope all of them were Homecoming games.

— UTC’s game notes reference The Citadel’s football stadium (on the same page) as “Haggod Stadium” , “Johnson Hagood Stadium”, and “Sansom Field”.

— The Citadel has never won four straight games against UT-Chattanooga. The Bulldogs currently enjoy a three-game winning streak versus the Mocs.

—

It’s hard to say what The Citadel’s chances on Saturday are, since it’s hard to determine which Bulldog team will show up — the one that played Appalachian State and Furman, or the one that played Elon, Western Carolina, and Wofford?

It will be interesting to see who starts at quarterback. If I had to guess (and it’s only a guess), I would say that Miguel Starks, even if just “85%”, will get the nod. Just the thought of a gimpy Bart Blanchard sitting in the pocket as the two sack-happy UTC defensive ends converge on him is cringe-inducing…

I certainly hope that the Bulldogs are more competitive than they were last week. This is a big game for UTC, which has a chance for a winning season. Given that the Mocs won a total of six games in the previous three years, that would be a major accomplishment. UT-Chattanooga will be ready to play on Saturday. The Bulldogs better be ready as well.

Filed under: Football, The Citadel | Tagged: Alabama, Andre Roberts, Appalachian State, Auburn, B.J. Coleman, Bill Oliver, Blue Cooper, Darren Sharper, Eastern Kentucky, Elon, Finley Stadium, Furman, Georgia, Gerry Faust, Joe Morrison, Johnson Hagood Stadium, Kentucky, Mike Tomlin, Mississippi, Moeller, Northern Arizona, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Richmond, Russ Huesman, Sean McDermott, Tennessee, Tennessee Tech, Terrell Hudgins, The Citadel, UT-Chattanooga, William & Mary | Leave a comment »

Same song, different year

Posted on November 9, 2009 by Sandlapper Spike

In college football, there are not that many games in a season, at least when compared to other sports. For an FCS school, there are just eleven opportunities. It’s important to make the most of each and every one of them.

The Citadel has played nine games this season. In three of those games, the team’s performance has been absolutely awful, and I mean awful in the “did they know there was a game today?” sense. That’s fully one-third of the games.

In sports, every now and then you’re going to have a bad day where nothing goes right (the same is true for life in general). Most fans can understand that. Having it happen once every three games — well, that’s not so understandable. Worse, all three thud-fests were conference games (Elon, Western Carolina, and now Wofford).

In past posts, I called the Elon game a debacle, and the WCU loss a disaster. I’m not sure what adjective applies to The Citadel’s game on Saturday against the Terriers. Perhaps I should call it “disheartening” just to stay with the D-word theme.

Speaking of D:

On the second Wofford series, the Terriers were faced with a 3rd-and-8, and promptly converted it by completing a 23-yard pass — this from a team that rarely throws the ball (Wofford entered the contest last in the nation in passing yardage per game). You just knew it was going to be a long day for the Bulldogs when that happened.
That third-down conversion was one of seven the Terriers picked up in eleven tries. Wofford had come into the game only converting 38% of its third downs.
Of course, Wofford had 13 first downs in which it didn’t even need to convert a third down.
Wofford had lost 13 fumbles and thrown 6 interceptions prior to Saturday’s game, but the only Terrier turnover on Saturday came deep in Bulldog territory with Wofford already leading 29-10.
That fumble would be the only time the Terriers failed to score in the “red zone” in seven tries (four touchdowns, two field goals).

The defense’s day was probably best epitomized by a play in the second quarter. Wofford faced a 3rd and 1 at The Citadel’s 33 yard line. As the Terriers broke their huddle, an image of Terrence Reese in full “make some noise, get pumped up” mode appeared on the video board. Wofford ran an inside handoff for three yards and a first down, with Reese then penalized for a late hit. The Terriers scored four plays later.

The defensive issues weren’t particularly surprising, given the Bulldogs’ struggles on D for most of the season, and the success Wofford has had against The Citadel in recent years. During the Kevin Higgins era, the Terriers have scored at least 28 points in every game against the Bulldogs.

However, unlike last season’s game against Wofford, on Saturday the Bulldog offense was equally disappointing.

I’m not sure what to make of the way the quarterbacks were utilized during the game. Obviously, Bart Blanchard and Miguel Starks were both coming off injuries, and if they couldn’t play, that would be one thing. As it happened, they both played, although whether either should have seemed debatable.

Blanchard was clearly struggling with a bad toe (and he’s had a bad ankle all year). Never the fastest of QBs, he was no threat to run. Any nominal “option” plays that The Citadel ran with Blanchard in the game were really just handoffs to Terrell Dallas or Van Dyke Jones, and Wofford treated them as such. He also appeared to be a sitting duck in the pocket.

After the game, according to a story in The Post and Courier, Blanchard was wearing a walking boot in the locker room, just as he had in prior games against Furman and Samford, when he didn’t play. I’m not sure why he played against Wofford, either.

I appreciated the effort and the determination, though. Even with a bad wheel, he threw a really impressive pass to Kevin Hardy that would lead to a field goal; I’m not sure all of the fans in the stands appreciated how good a throw that was. Blanchard did not get much help from his receivers, as there were several dropped passes (a recurring issue for most of the season).

Blanchard was in the game late in the first half when The Citadel got the ball on its own 6 yard line. There were only 61 seconds left on the clock, and the Bulldogs actually had a little momentum, having scored on their previous drive to cut Wofford’s lead to seven, at 17-10. The Terriers had just one timeout left, so the Bulldogs could have run out the clock.

However, on first down Blanchard went back to pass and was sacked, fumbling the ball. Lincoln Kling recovered in the end zone for the Bulldogs, but the result was a safety. Wofford returned the ensuing free kick to the Bulldog 40 and would eventually kick a field goal to take a 22-10 lead into the locker room. It was like giving away five free points and all the momentum. Wofford then got the ball first to open the third quarter, drove right down the field and scored. Ballgame.

Tommy Edwards replaced Blanchard just before the end of the third quarter, moved the Bulldogs 38 yards in five plays, and then threw an interception. On the Bulldogs’ next series (now trailing 43-10), Miguel Starks started taking the snaps. He would lead The Citadel to the game’s final score on his second series of the game.

This I really didn’t understand. If Starks was injured and couldn’t start, why put him in the game with 10 minutes left and the team trailing by five touchdowns? I didn’t see the point in that. If he had been healthy enough to play at all, he should have started over the clearly ailing Blanchard, or come into the game when the outcome was still in doubt.

Kevin Higgins noted that Edwards “doesn’t have much experience at all”, and that’s certainly true, but in retrospect I wonder if it would have been better for all concerned if Edwards had played instead of either Blanchard or Starks.

Of course, I’m just a yokel watching the game. I don’t have any inside information on what the thinking was regarding playing Blanchard/Edwards/Starks. It may be that Starks’ injury is the type that won’t get worse, but won’t get much better anytime soon. If that’s the case, the coaches may have wanted to see what he was capable of doing, so they could take that into account for next week.

—

To have such a trouncing occur on Homecoming was also a bit dispiriting. Without the TD at the end of the game, the Bulldogs would have suffered their worst Homecoming loss since 1989. It’s not the best way to impress visiting alums, that’s for sure.

Things I may or may not have heard in and around the various reunion tents:

“Why don’t we run the wishbone?”
“Well, we’re a basketball school, anyway.”
“Maybe the guys on the team would play better if we rewarded a good season by letting them stay at the beach house during second semester, instead of the barracks.”
“How long have we been wearing navy pants?”
“Skip the orange juice, just give me what’s left in that bottle.”

A few observations about some off the field issues:

— Over the past couple of years, I’ve noticed that a significant number of cadets don’t make it to the game, and I’m not the only one who has spotted this trend. At Saturday’s game I guesstimated that at least one-third, if not more, of the corps was not in the stands during the game. Where were they?

This is something that the school administration needs to address before next season. I know there are some legitimate absences, but the bottom line is that at least 90% of the corps of cadets needs to be in the stands at Johnson Hagood Stadium at every game. Right now, that’s not happening.

— I’ve said this before, but if I attend too many more games at Johnson Hagood I’m going to eventually go deaf, thanks to the sound system speakers, which, apparently inspired by Spinal Tap, are set at “11”. At least on this particular Saturday A) the referee’s microphone worked, and B) they didn’t play the “clap your hands” riff as the Bulldogs lined up to punt.

— Video board, good: the Randy Bresnik message intro was great. Excellent job setting that up. I can’t imagine going into outer space. Of course, I’m not crazy about heights…

— Video board, unintentionally amusing: the Anthony Maldanado speech (through no fault of his own, of course). Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

— I thought the attendance was okay (Wofford didn’t bring a lot of fans). Plenty of alums were wandering around, taking in the sights at the almost brand-new stadium, marveling at bathroom facilities that weren’t holdovers from the 19th century. Everyone was ready to cheer; there just wasn’t anything worth cheering about, at least on the field.

— MVPs for the day, school of business administration: both the Class of ’59 and the Class of ’69 presented enormous monetary contributions to the school on Saturday. Major, major thumbs-up for those two classes. Outstanding.

— MVPs for the day, school of recreation and leisure: this would go to the Class of ’89, which had a huge throng of partiers at its reunion tent, all of whom appeared to be having a good time. Great turnout by that group of youngsters.

—

The Citadel now has two games left on the schedule, road contests against UT-Chattanooga and Georgia Southern. A winning season is still a possibility, but it will be a tall order to triumph against both an improved Mocs squad and the traditionally tough Eagles. The Bulldogs will certainly have to play much, much better than they did on Saturday if they hope to win either of those games, much less both of them.

Filed under: Football, The Citadel | Tagged: Anthony Maldanado, Bart Blanchard, Elon, FCS, Furman, Georgia Southern, Johnson Hagood Stadium, Kevin Higgins, Lincoln Kling, Miguel Starks, Randy Bresnik, Samford, Terrell Dallas, Terrence Reese, The Citadel, The Post and Courier, Tommy Edwards, UT-Chattanooga, Van Dyke Jones, Western Carolina, Wofford | 2 Comments »

Football, Game 9: The Citadel vs. Wofford

Posted on November 6, 2009 by Sandlapper Spike

I wrote about the series between Wofford and The Citadel during the preview for last season’s matchup between the two schools. I’m not going to re-hash the history in this post; if anyone is interested, the link will serve to give some background.

This will be the third consecutive meeting between the Terriers and Bulldogs to be featured on SportSouth, which may be the first time The Citadel has played on TV against the same opponent three years in a row. Tom Werme and Sam Wyche will again call the action from the booth.

—

When sporting events began to be regularly broadcast (first over radio, then television), some of the individuals running sports clubs feared that broadcasting games would lead to attendance declines, because people could just stay at home and listen to the radio, or watch on TV. This notion was largely debunked by Hall of Fame baseball executive Larry MacPhail (in the 1930s and early 1940s).

Tangent: this type of thinking had gone on for decades, beginning with clubs trying to deny telegraph operators the right to give scoring updates for baseball games. In 1876, the first year of the National League’s existence, Hartford owner Morgan Bulkeley (one of the three most undeserving members of the Hall of Fame) attempted to bar representatives of the local telegraph company from buying tickets.

However, the question has to be asked: if a game is on TV, why would someone choose to see it in person, rather than watch it on the tube? Going to a game can be very inconvenient and expensive. Instead, you could choose to not leave your house and watch the game (preferably in HD) while lying on your couch, with all the comforts of home, including a refrigerator, bathroom, and an HVAC system.

A lot of people go to the games anyway, as evidenced by the large crowds that see many different kinds of sporting events. Even when it is noted that there are empty seats at an arena or stadium (like Doak Campbell Stadium for the North Carolina State-Florida State game last Saturday, the bottom line is that there were still a lot of people who went to the game (in that case, over 50,000).

Why do they go? Well, tradition, I suppose, along with camaraderie — tailgating, seeing old friends in the same seats every year, that type of thing. They go for the atmosphere. Sometimes, that atmosphere isn’t so great. However, occasionally there is a day to remember, a day when the electricity in the stadium isn’t just being provided by the power company.

It’s the kind of thing that gets people off their couches and in their cars and headed to the game, just for the chance to be a part of a high-voltage event, to be swept along in a moment of nirvana. Maybe it won’t happen too often, but when it does, it makes up for all the times it didn’t.

Such an occurrence happened at Johnson Hagood Stadium in 1988. Since this Saturday is Homecoming, I’m going to write briefly about the most memorable Homecoming game in the history of the stadium, which had the most electric atmosphere of any game I’ve ever seen at JHS.

—

***November 5, 1988 — Marshall (#1) vs. The Citadel (#19)***

It was a bright, sunny day when the Thundering Herd and the Bulldogs met on the gridiron. Marshall had played in the I-AA title game the year before, losing 43-42 to Northeast Louisiana. After that setback, the Thundering Herd hit the ground running in 1988. By the time Marshall ventured to Charleston, it was 8-0 and ranked #1 in I-AA football.

The Thundering Herd featured a high-octane offense averaging 32.6 points per game. Starting quarterback John Gregory threw for 3,127 yards and 21 touchdowns in 1988. Many of Gregory’s throws went to Mike Barber, Marshall’s All-American wide receiver, who would be named I-AA player of the year in 1988 by the American Football Coaches Association. Barber had caught 106 passes in 1987 and followed that up with “only” 79 catches in 1988.

When Gregory wasn’t throwing passes to Barber, he was tossing them to Sean Doctor, the Herd tight end, who in just two years in Huntington would accumulate 2,100 receiving yards. Marshall could run the ball, too, as halfback Ron Darby gained 1,282 yards in 1988 and scored 16 touchdowns.

That was the juggernaut facing The Citadel, although the Bulldogs did not lack for confidence. The Citadel came into the game 6-2, having won five straight games, including a 42-35 victory over Navy. That triumph had been led by quarterback Gene Brown. However, Brown was injured two weeks later against UT-Chattanooga.

Tommy Burriss had ably filled in at quarterback (no surprise, as he was the former starter) to lead the Bulldogs to victories over Boston University (yes, BU still played football back then) and East Tennessee State. Brown’s return to the field was highly anticipated, though, as he was a truly gifted director of Charlie Taaffe’s wishbone attack.

A crowd of 20,011 showed up to see the matchup, the second time that season more than 20,000 people had attended a football game at Johnson Hagood Stadium.

After a scoreless first quarter, The Citadel would strike first, with Adrian Johnson scoring on a one-yard touchdown run. Marshall would respond with a short field goal, but the score was only 6-3 at halftime (the Bulldogs having missed the PAT).

However, The Citadel’s offense began to control the game, dominating the time of possession. Brown entered the game in the second quarter and the rushing yardage started to pile up. Johnson rushed for 106 yards and Raymond Mazyck added 79 (on just 10 carries). The Bulldogs as a team rushed for 359 yards, and perhaps more importantly ran 83 plays and kept Marshall’s high-powered offense off the field.

Even when Marshall had the ball, the Herd struggled. In one sequence, the Herd would run eight consecutive plays inside the Bulldog 5-yard line without scoring a TD. For the game, Marshall only managed 247 yards of total offense.

The crowd went into a frenzy when Phillip Florence took an end-around 33 yards for a touchdown in the third quarter, and when Johnson scored his second touchdown of the day in the fourth period, it was all over. 20-3, The Citadel.

Well, almost over. As the game ended, the field was invaded by the corps of cadets, a number of whom headed straight for the goalpost in the south endzone. The uprights were then torn down…okay, maybe not quite torn down. The cadets were unable to rip the uprights away from the crossbar, and the crossbar remained attached to the stanchion. It was the Cardinal Richelieu of goalposts.

It didn’t matter, though, as it was the thought that counted. The administration didn’t seem to mind having to shell out some cash for a new goalpost, either, which may be the best indication of how amazing the atmosphere at the game really was.

Tangent: the next week, Marshall’s Darby rushed for 262 yards against Western Carolina, which would have been a Southern Conference record — but on the same day, Brown rushed for 286 yards against VMI (on only 13 carries!) to shatter the mark. Talk about bad timing for Darby.

Now that was a game worth attending. What about Saturday’s game? Will it be worth attending for Bulldog fans?

—

Wofford had enjoyed seven consecutive winning seasons before this year’s campaign. The Terriers are 2-6, although it should be noted that Wofford played not one but two FBS schools this year, losing to both South Florida and Wisconsin.

However, eyebrows were raised around the conference when the Terriers (picked in the preseason to finish in the league’s top 3) lost 38-9 at UT-Chattanooga. The Mocs have proven to be the most improved team in the league, but that loss clearly showed that Wofford had some unexpected issues. The two main themes for the Terriers this year have been injuries and turnovers.

Wofford entered the season with a fairly inexperienced squad (only nine returning starters), and that inexperience has been compounded by a rash of serious injuries, many of them season-ending. Only ten players have started every game for the Terriers; in all, 34 different players have made at least one start.

Many of the losses have been on defense (including pre-season All-SoCon pick Mitch Clark, who has only played one game this year). The Terriers also suffered the loss of starting fullback Eric Breitenstein (who rushed for 121 yards against South Florida). Wofford was already missing halfback Jeremy Marshall, who tore an ACL last season against Appalachian State; in this season’s matchup with the Mountaineers, another Terrier halfback, Derek Boyce, tore his ACL.

The Terriers run an option attack known as the “wingbone”, with the emphasis on run. Wofford, with all its problems, still leads FCS in rushing, averaging 258 yards per game. However, the Terriers are last in the division in passing, averaging only 70.5 yards per contest.

Quarterback Mitch Allen is completing just 45.2% of his passes. That’s not a huge problem – after all, he doesn’t attempt that many – but while Allen has thrown five touchdown passes, he’s also thrown five interceptions (in just 62 attempts).

Wofford as a team has thrown six picks, and has also fumbled 19 times, losing 13. Losing two-thirds of their fumbles is a bit of bad luck, to be sure, but the Terriers are at heart a possession-oriented team. Committing nineteen turnovers over eight games is not typical of a Wofford outfit. The Terriers have committed 3+ turnovers in four games this season, losing all four.

The Terriers are still a dangerous offensive team, even with the turnover bugaboo, but have been inconsistent. Wofford rolled up 537 yards of total offense against Appalachian State and another 426 against Western Carolina. Unlike The Citadel’s last opponent, Samford, the Terriers are more than capable of creating big plays (Wofford has had five plays from the line of scrimmage of over 60 yards).

On the other hand, Wofford only had 170 yards of total offense against Elon (The Citadel can relate) and just 151 against UT-Chattanooga. Part of the inconsistency can be traced to the Terriers’ third down conversion rate, which is just 38.3%.

For the style of offense Wofford employs, that isn’t good enough. The problems converting third down have led to Wofford averaging less than 29 minutes per game in time of possession, definitely not what an all-out running team like the Terriers wants.

When Wofford scores first, it is 2-0; when it doesn’t, 0-6. Wofford is 0-5 when trailing after three quarters and 0-4 when scoring less than 20 points.

Terrier opponents are averaging 387 yards per game in total offense. Wofford has forced twelve turnovers in eight games, including five interceptions. Much like its offense, the Terrier D has not had a lot of luck in the fumble department, forcing twenty but recovering only seven. That’s the kind of statistic that will eventually turn in Wofford’s favor; let’s hope it doesn’t happen this week.

Wofford’s opponents have been in the “red zone” 36 times this season, and have scored touchdowns on 26 of those occasions.

The Terriers have a solid kick return game, led by running back Mike Rucker. Wofford has a net punting average of 35.9, which is quite good. The Terriers have only attempted four field goals all season, making two (both against Elon).

In last year’s game, The Citadel did a good job offensively but couldn’t stop the Terriers, as Wofford had 409 yards of total offense, including 279 yards rushing. Andre Roberts had a huge game (14 receptions, 190 yards, 3 TDs) but it wasn’t enough, as Wofford stayed one step ahead of the Bulldogs the whole way, committing no turnovers and converting all three of its fourth-down attempts.

You can bet that Roberts will be priority #1 for the Wofford defense, but you can say that about any defense that faces The Citadel. Who winds up throwing the ball in Roberts’ direction is anybody’s guess.

What I hope happens is that if both Bart Blanchard and Miguel Starks are healthy, the coaches rotate them by series instead of by play. If one of them is moving the team down the field, then that’s the guy that needs to stay in the game. I’m not forgetting about Tommy Edwards, either. He got the job done against Samford, and he’ll get the call if need be against the Terriers.

I would like to see more of the type of playcalling used in the game against Furman, which seemed to suit the offensive line. Speaking of the o-line, that unit will need to contain Wofford defensive end Ameet Pall, a Montreal native who is having a fine season for the Terriers. Kevin Higgins was quick to note Pall’s abilities during his press conference on Monday.

It’s been too long since The Citadel won in this series. Hopes are high that the Bulldogs will end that streak on Saturday, in front of an appreciative Homecoming crowd. I am not so sure, to be honest, but I’ll be there cheering them on regardless.

Filed under: Football, The Citadel | Tagged: Adrian Johnson, Ameet Pall, Andre Roberts, Appalachian State, Bart Blanchard, Charlie Taaffe, Derek Boyce, Doak Campbell Stadium, Elon, Eric Breitenstein, FCS, Gene Brown, Jeremy Marshall, John Gregory, Johnson Hagood Stadium, Kevin Higgins, Larry MacPhail, Marshall, Miguel Starks, Mike Barber, Mike Rucker, Mitch Allen, Morgan Bulkeley, Raymond Mazyck, Ron Darby, Sam Wyche, Samford, Sean Doctor, South Florida, Southern Conference, SportSouth, The Citadel, Tom Werme, Tommy Burriss, Tommy Edwards, UT-Chattanooga, Western Carolina, Wisconsin, Wofford | Leave a comment »

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