2012 Football, Game 2: The Citadel vs. Georgia Southern

The Citadel vs. Georgia Southern, to be played at historic Johnson Hagood Stadium, with kickoff at 6:00 pm ET on Saturday, September 8.  The game will not be televised, although it will be webcast on Bulldog Insider (subscription service) and can be heard on radio via the twelve affiliates of The Citadel Sports Network. Danny Reed (the “Voice of the Bulldogs”) will call the action alongside analyst Josh Baker, with Lee Glaze roaming the sidelines and Walt Nadzak providing pre-game, halftime, and post-game commentary. 

Links of interest:

The Citadel game notes                   Box score from The Citadel’s game last week

Georgia Southern game notes        Box score from GSU’s game last week

SoCon weekly release

I want to start by talking about one of my favorite topics, attendance.

A crowd of 14,264 attended the game against Charleston Southern. Even with the ticket promotions and the postgame fireworks, I was pleasantly surprised with that total. As I arrived, I could see that there were a lot of people in the area around the stadium, even if a significant portion of them were just there for the tailgating.

It was the largest crowd for a game at Johnson Hagood Stadium since 2009, and the largest crowd for a home opener since 2006.

Charleston Southern actually brought a decent number of fans, a departure from previous seasons. More power to them. Georgia Southern will bring considerably more this week, so an opportunity for a big crowd is there.

This will be only the second time the two schools have met on the gridiron in the month of September. The Citadel played Georgia Southern on September 11, 1993, in Statesboro.

That is something to keep in mind when looking at attendance figures at Johnson Hagood Stadium for previous contests against the Eagles. Somewhat surprisingly, only twice has a game at JHS against Georgia Southern drawn crowds larger than the one last Saturday against CSU. However, all of those games came later in the season.

Attendance at Johnson Hagood Stadium when Georgia Southern is the opponent:

1994 — 18,559
1996 — 9,427
1998 — 14,222
2000 — 12,391
2002 — 16,427
2004 — 12,472
2006 — 12,129
2008 — 11,190
2010 — 10,385

I think there is a good chance that attendance will get a sizable bump for this matchup. It helps that both Clemson and South Carolina are playing earlier in the day.

That makes it all the more important for the Bulldogs to play well against the Eagles, because I believe that attendance for the remaining home games may be affected by The Citadel’s “momentum”. If a large crowd sees a good game, some of those people will come back for more. The bandwagon will start to roll again.

Interestingly, The Citadel’s potential attendance surge would be going against the national tide, at least if early-season FBS crowds are any indication:

There was exactly one announced capacity crowd in eight Southeastern Conference home openers. Before the Labor Day Georgia Tech-Virginia Tech game, six out of seven Atlantic Coast Conference schools had smaller crowds than their openers last year – some of them much smaller. Attendance was down at six out of eight Big 12 home openers from 2011. Five out of eight Pac-12 schools had smaller crowds as well, and Oregon’s 13-year sellout streak was in jeopardy until game day.

The Citadel’s attendance against Charleston Southern (14,264) was greater than the average attendance for the four MAC games played last week (13,928).

Can The Citadel beat Georgia Southern? Of course. What are the Bulldogs’ chances? Probably not very good, if history is a guide.

One of the great games in the history of Johnson Hagood Stadium was The Citadel’s 20-3 upset of top-ranked Marshall in 1988. The Bulldogs would also beat a top-10 opponent at JHS in 1991 when they edged #7 Furman 10-6 in a classic defensive struggle.

However, that 1991 win over Furman is one of just three victories by the Bulldogs over top 10 opposition since 1990. Two of those wins came in 1991; Appalachian State was ranked #9 when the Bulldogs beat the Mountaineers that season.

The Citadel defeated East Tennessee State in 1997 in Johnson City when the Bucs were ranked #8 (and still played football). Other than that, nothing:

– The Citadel vs. Top 10 opposition since 1990: 3-40 (29 straight losses)
– The Citadel vs. Top 5 opposition since 1990: 0-23
– The Citadel vs. Georgia Southern since 1990 when GSU was in the top 10: 0-9

I’m not trying to be negative. I’m just trying to provide a little perspective. If The Citadel were to win on Saturday, it would be the biggest win for the football program in at least fifteen years and the signature victory for Kevin Higgins in his tenure at the school.

It would also snap a rather ignominious streak: the Bulldogs have lost nine consecutive conference home games since beating Samford in 2009. The Citadel has not won a SoCon contest at Johnson Hagood Stadium since switching to the triple option offense.

While Georgia Southern has a history of high-octane offenses and rushed for 557 yards last week in a 58-0 demolition of Jacksonville, the Eagles’ best player is defensive lineman Brent Russell. He has had any number of big games (his performance versus Navy in 2010 was particularly noteworthy). Russell didn’t have a big game against The Citadel last year, though, because he was suspended and didn’t play.

Russell is back for this season’s matchup with the Eagles, but the Bulldogs will be without his fellow All-SoCon defensive lineman, Derek Douglas. Advantage: GSU.

One of the easy storylines for this game would be Russell matching up against The Citadel’s all-league center, Mike Sellers. However, it is unlikely there will be many (if any) one-on-one battles between the two star linemen. Kevin Higgins noted this at his weekly press conference when he pointed out Russell is now a “three technique” lineman.

Georgia Southern has moved Blake Riley to nosetackle in an effort to keep Russell from being repeatedly double-teamed, and as a result it will likely be The Citadel’s guards who will have to deal with Russell more often than not. Of course, the Bulldogs will try to neutralize him whenever possible by optioning off of him. The best way to neutralize Russell, though, is to block him. That will be a difficult task.

Another key figure in GSU’s defense will be Patrick Flowe, who is starting at middle linebacker for the Eagles as a true freshman.  It is surely unusual for a team coming off back-to-back appearances in the national semifinals to immediately start a true freshman at middle linebacker.

Curiously, Flowe is listed as the backup at MLB in GSU’s game notes.

Georgia Southern’s offense did not complete a pass in eight tries against Jacksonville, not that it mattered. In my preview of the Charleston Southern game I mentioned how overrated “balance” in an offense can be. To further illustrate this, GSU is 7-0 in modern program history when it fails to gain any passing yardage. One of those games was in 2010 at Johnson Hagood Stadium against the Bulldogs.

In contrast to The Citadel’s stuttering start against Charleston Southern, GSU came out blazing against the Dolphins, scoring 27 points in the first quarter. The second play from scrimmage for the Eagles was a 79-yard touchdown run by Ezayi Youyoute, one of two quarterbacks who will see significant time for Georgia Southern.

Fifteen different players carried the ball at least once for GSU. They included B-back Dominique Swope (104 yards, 3 TDs), Youyoute (164 yards, 3 TDs), Youyoute’s fellow QB Jerick McKinnon (71 yards, some of which came as a slotback, and a TD), and Robert Brown (63 yards on three rushes).

Those who remember the 2010 game against Georgia Southern (and Bulldog fans could be excused for trying to forget it) will recognize McKinnon’s name, as the then-frosh QB had to replace regular starter Jaybo Shaw early in that contest. McKinnon rushed for 182 yards that afternoon on 35 carries, both of which remain career highs for him.

Brown played in that game too, but as the B-back. He has now been moved to slotback. The fact he will play at all on Saturday is borderline amazing (at least to me), as he had back surgery just seven weeks ago.

Georgia Southern’s offense this season is expected to be more explosive with Youyoute and McKinnon at the controls. Jaybo Shaw was efficient and effective, a solid passer who made good decisions running the triple option, but was not a breakaway threat.

Of course, that doesn’t mean the combination of Youyoute/McKinnon won’t make the right reads, or that either/or can’t throw a nice ball. It may be, however, that The Citadel is playing Georgia Southern at the right time of year, as the two QBs are still developing as signal callers.

Georgia Southern also ran a fake punt against the Dolphins, and recovered an onside kick while leading 41-0 (though I gather that may have been an accident).

GSU had excellent special teams units last year, but is breaking in a new placekicker and punter this season, and needs to find a kick returner to replace Laron Scott.

Speaking of Scott, he also blocked one of the two missed Bulldog PATs that were so critical in last season’s game (free safety Darius Eubanks blocked the other). The Citadel is going to have to do a much better job in that phase of the game.

Confusion alert: Darreion Robinson, Georgia Southern slotback/punt returner, meet Darien Robinson, The Citadel B-back. Both scored touchdowns in last year’s matchup.

Offensively, the Bulldogs face the challenge of trying to control the line of scrimmage against Russell and company. It goes without saying that fumbling six times in a half again would be a bad idea. Georgia Southern lost both of its starting cornerbacks from last season (including the ubiquitous Scott), so perhaps this is the week that Triple O’Higgins breaks out the forward pass in a major way.

I was impressed with freshman running back Vinny Miller last Saturday, as were many other observers. I wouldn’t be surprised if he assumed an expanded role in this week’s game. Miller was one of several freshmen who made significant contributions during the Bulldogs’ victory over the Buccaneers. Another who impressed in his debut was defensive tackle Colin Parsons.

The Citadel’s defense has to do its best to prevent big plays, although it is probably inevitable that GSU will break at least a couple of long gainers. Against Jacksonville, the Eagles had nine runs of 19 yards or more. To combat the Eagles’ explosiveness, The Citadel must punish the high risk/reward nature of GSU’s offense by forcing turnovers.

Last year’s game featured five Georgia Southern fumbles (two lost) and an interception. The Bulldog D needs to at least match that total on Saturday.

The Bulldogs also must win the special teams battle. It’s not just about the placekicking, either.

Georgia Southern held The Citadel’s offense to 264 yards of total offense last season, which was the second-best performance by the Eagle defense all year (only Elon had fewer yards against GSU). However, the Bulldogs matched them on the other side of the ball, as Georgia Southern’s offense produced fewer total yards against The Citadel’s defense (320) than any team it played in 2011 except Appalachian State.

I don’t see that kind of game playing out on Saturday. I think both offenses are going to move the ball and score more points. That would probably be a good outcome from The Citadel’s perspective, as the Bulldogs are less likely to win a low-scoring game.

Indeed, The Citadel is 2-35 in the Kevin Higgins era when scoring 20 or fewer points (including an 0-4 record last season). I can understand having that bad a record when scoring 10 or fewer points, or even 14, but 20? Conversely, GSU is 2-5 under Jeff Monken when scoring 20 or fewer points.

It will be Military Appreciation Day on Saturday. It should be a festive occasion, with plenty of different events happening in conjunction with the football game. It will be even more festive if the home team can pull off a big upset. I would like to see a really big fiesta at Johnson Hagood Stadium that night.

2012 Football, Game 1: The Citadel vs. Charleston Southern

Ah, football. So glad to see you again, old friend. The offseason was long and hard. The lack of a winter confused us. We’ve had to wade through conference realignment conspiracy theories again, with some of those rumors involving our own conference.

Yes, football is back, and just in time.

The Citadel vs. Charleston Southern, to be played at historic Johnson Hagood Stadium, with kickoff at 6:00 pm ET on Saturday, September 1.  The game will not be televised, although it will be webcast on Bulldog Insider (subscription service) and can be heard on radio via the twelve affiliates of The Citadel Sports Network. Danny Reed (the “Voice of the Bulldogs”) will call the action alongside analyst Josh Baker, with Lee Glaze roaming the sidelines and Walt Nadzak providing pre-game, halftime, and post-game commentary. After the game, there will be a fireworks show, which probably guarantees that a series of thunderstorms will begin to pass through Charleston during the second half.

Some links of note:

The Citadel game notes    The Citadel depth chart   SoCon weekly release

Oh, and just for fun, a few things I wrote in the spring and summer:

Why I don’t expect an overflow crowd at Saturday’s game

A brief look at returning lettermen for The Citadel and its opponents

An analysis of attendance at Johnson Hagood Stadium over the past five decades

My ridiculously long-winded manifesto on why The Citadel needs to add more varsity sports

Watching The Post and Courier‘s video preview for The Citadel’s upcoming season, I was interested to hear Jeff Hartsell state that head coach Kevin Higgins was not under any particular pressure in terms of wins and losses for this year. According to Hartsell, The Citadel administration is “all-in” on Higgins, who is now in his eighth season at the military college.

I’m not surprised school officials would take that position in public (it is, after all, the correct thing to do). I was a little curious to hear Hartsell say so without equivocation, which tells me the public position is also the private one. Higgins has one year remaining on his contract after this season, to be sure, and The Citadel is not known for terminating coaches in that situation.

Not that I’m advocating a “win this year or else” strategy with regards to Higgins; far from it. I think it’s good to have a veteran coach running things. As long as he still has the energy for the job (and that certainly appears to be the case), I like the idea of having a coach who has been at the school long  enough to know what to do and what not to do. He knows how to approach things that are unique to The Citadel, whether it be recruiting or corps squad/rest of corps relations (this tweet is evidence of the latter).

In other words, he’s made all the big mistakes he’s going to make. Now, though, I would like to see him win a few more games, which would go along nicely with his cutting-edge practice field attire.

I think it’s important to be realistic about a football program that has had just one winning season since 1997. The definition of a successful campaign this year, then, is to finish with more wins than losses. As Hartsell also said in the video preview, that’s what fans should be expecting (in terms of a breakthrough).

It won’t be easy. The schedule is not as conducive to a winning year as one would like. There are only five home games, and in addition to that the slate is front-loaded. It is not out of the question The Citadel could be 1-4 after its first five games. In fact, the football cognoscenti of the SoCon would predict exactly that. The Bulldogs were picked to finish next-to-last in the league by both the media writers and the coaches.

Therefore, a key to the season is improving upon that 1-4 expectation. That is quite possible, in my view. The Bulldogs more than held their own last season against the three league opponents they will play in that five-game stretch. The Citadel lost by seven points to Appalachian State at home, narrowly missed out on a road upset of Georgia Southern, and stunned Chattanooga (in Chattanooga!) after spotting the Mocs a 27-point lead.

The Citadel won’t be favored to be as competitive against North Carolina State, though nothing is impossible (and taking no chances, Tom O’Brien is already preparing his team for the triple option). The Bulldogs are a solid favorite against Charleston Southern. (I get a little nervous whenever I write that The Citadel is a “solid favorite” over any team.)

The Citadel total offense (in yards) vs. SoCon opponents, 2010: 359, 304, 263, 197, 160, 143, 300, 203

The Citadel total offense (in yards) vs. SoCon opponents, 2011: 301, 267, 268, 238, 361, 447, 264, 259

Triple O’Higgins was clearly better last season, yet there is plenty of room for improvement. The Citadel averaged 300.6 yards of total offense in eight league games. That number rises to 318.8 counting the non-conference contests, which was the worst total in the SoCon.

Of course, the numbers that matter are points, but total offense is generally a good indicator of points scored, and The Citadel’s 23.5 points per game finished next-to-last in the SoCon, ahead of only hapless Western Carolina.

Most of The Citadel’s total offense came in rushing, which will surprise nobody. The Bulldogs only averaged 32.2 yards passing per contest, which ranked last in the entire country. In a way, that makes The Citadel’s rushing totals all the more impressive, given every opponent could focus exclusively on the run — and I do mean exclusively.

I remember driving through a torrential thunderstorm on I-26 and listening to Danny Reed call the Bulldogs’ game against Elon. “10 men in the box for Elon,” he said about one early second-quarter play. Later on, he exclaimed, “Now the Phoenix have 11 men in the box!” As the game wound down to its conclusion, I was half-expecting him to say that Elon was putting 12 men in the box.

The lack of a passing threat was a key reason why the Bulldogs, despite finishing third in the SoCon (and the nation) in rushing, wound up finishing last in the league in total first downs.

For this season, The Citadel needs to at least make its opponents nervous about the possibility of a forward pass. To do so, a new formation has been added to the playbook:

A new feature of The Citadel offense this year will be a heavier reliance on the shotgun, a formation which will allow both returning quarterbacks to improve their accuracy and make the Bulldogs more of a productive passing team.

Kevin Higgins is not going to tell anybody what numbers he is looking for in the passing game, which is understandable, because he really isn’t looking for a specific amount of receiving yards. He just wants to make opponents honor the pass, which will in turn help the Bulldogs’ rushing attack.

While there may be no “magic number”, I believe some parameters for success can be estimated. It appears The Citadel does plan to throw the ball a bit more often this season. If the idea is to average 10-12 pass attempts per game (the Bulldogs averaged a shade under 7 attempts last season), then I think The Citadel needs to average around 8.0-8.5 yards per pass attempt at a minimum (preferably it should be above 9 yards per attempt). Last season, that number was 4.7 ypa, an awful average.

As for interceptions, I am inclined to think the goal should be no more than one per 25 attempts, though that number could fluctuate based on overall total offense production and the number of possessions per game. Last season the Bulldogs threw seven interceptions in only 75 passing attempts, which is very poor. Interestingly, Wofford tossed seven picks in 108 attempts, which isn’t much better — but the Terriers also threw eight touchdown passes. The Citadel only had one TD pass, and that was a halfback option pass by Rickey Anderson.

While the Bulldogs need to improve in the passing game, the team needs to be careful not to lose its identity as a run-first, run-second, run-as-much-as-possible offense. The Citadel needs to stick to the basics. This isn’t about “balance”. Nothing is more overrated than balance in an offense. It’s not how you score points, it’s how many points you score. Case in point: since 1990, there have been ten games in which The Citadel has had seven or fewer passing yards. The record for the Bulldogs in those ten games? 6-4.

Regardless of formation variance, I think the offense will be better this season. The Citadel has a generally solid cast of returnees, including a plethora of slotbacks, two quality B-backs, and two quarterbacks. The largely experienced offensive line is led by the offense’s best player, center Mike Sellers.

There is some concern about the wide receiver position, but to me the biggest question marks are the two tackle positions and the rotating quarterbacks. The Citadel recently made a significant move at the tackle position, inserting Cullen Brown at starting right tackle. Alex Glover will now start at tight end.

Regarding the QBs, I am not a huge believer in the notion that you must have a #1 guy at the position, at least at the college level. However, I do wonder about the timing of the offense when you combine two quarterbacks with two different B-backs. Everyone remembers the problems the Bulldogs had two years ago with the center-QB exchange and the QB/back “mesh” operation. No one at The Citadel wants to see anything resembling a repeat of those days.

I am a little worried about the defense, particularly when it comes to that four-game stretch following the opener: Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, North Carolina State, and Chattanooga. The unit must be ready to compete at a high level for those games, but lacks starting experience in key areas. The front-loaded schedule could really hurt the Bulldogs.

Four of the five leading tacklers from last season are gone, although that in itself doesn’t bother me too much. It’s the amount of experience those four players had that is the real issue (last year’s three starting linebackers played in a combined 126 career games).

Then there is the loss of Derek Douglas for at least the first part of the season due to a knee injury. Many observers felt Douglas was the team’s best all-around player last season, a force on the d-line and an all-conference selection. He had 11 tackles for loss; only one other returning SoCon player had more (Wes Dothard of UTC). Douglas can’t return fast enough for the Bulldogs.

There is more talent coming back, however, including lineman Chris Billingslea, a true playmaker on the defensive side of the ball. Billingslea’s big-play capability (he always seems to be around the football) is something The Citadel needs from more of its defensive players; while solid, last season’s defense didn’t force quite enough negative plays, particularly turnovers (eighteen in eleven games).

There are a number of candidates to feature alongside Billingslea (and Douglas, when he returns) on the defensive line. I think the Bulldogs are in reasonably good shape with this group. The Citadel just needs two or three of them to assert themselves as major contributors, and quickly. It appears that at least two freshmen will get an opportunity to make an impact.

While the linebacking corps will feature three new starters, all three played last season and showed promise, including flashes of that big-play ability the Bulldogs need. However, there has been talk that they aren’t as athletic as the previous starters. Personally, I’m not overly concerned with their athleticism, as long as they can make game-changing plays that benefit The Citadel. Depth could be an issue, however, as there are fewer obvious options for this group than there are for the defensive line.

The secondary needs to improve on its interception totals (only six all last season). The lack of picks has been an ongoing problem. The Citadel was last in the league in passes intercepted in 2010 and next-to-last in 2011. Another issue that has occasionally bedeviled The Citadel is the “killer pass” from the opposition —  not just long TD throws, but third-down conversion pickups that have allowed drives to continue.

The Citadel allowed opponents to complete 65.3% of their passes last season, the highest percentage allowed in the Higgins era. Opponents have completed at least 60% of their passes against the Bulldogs in each of the last four years, a far cry from the 52.7% completion rate allowed in 2007, The Citadel’s last winning campaign.

The Bulldogs were next-to-last in the league in defensive pass efficiency last season. To win more games, The Citadel has to do better than that in 2012.

Phil Steele recently released his FCS Special Teams rankings for the 2011 season. The Citadel, primarily thanks to its success in punting and returning (or rather, blocking) punts, finished first in the nation in his ratings. Only one other Southern Conference team finished in the top 30 (Georgia Southern was thirteenth).

The star performer for The Citadel’s special teams last season was punter Cass Couey, who was superb, leading the SoCon in punting average (43.0 yds) and net punting (38.2 yds). He’s also capable of tucking the ball under his arm and running for a first down if the opposition isn’t paying attention.

The Citadel also had a big edge when the other team punted, thanks to nine blocked punts. However, one of the NCAA’s rules changes for 2012 will force the Bulldogs to adjust at least part of their kick-blocking strategy:

There will…be a new rule prohibiting players from leaping over blockers in an attempt to block a punt. Receiving-team players trying to jump over a shield-blocking scheme has become popular for teams in punt formation. Receiving-team players try to defeat this scheme by rushing into the backfield to block a punt. In some cases, these players are contacted and end up flipping in the air and landing on their head or shoulders.

This change could be called the Domonic Jones Rule, as the rangy 6’5″ wide receiver blocked or deflected five punts last season by doing exactly what is described above. While the new rule may not favor The Citadel, in all honesty I think it’s a good change. Too many times I have watched a player land on his head or neck after leaping into a pair of shield blockers.

Kevin Higgins was on the committee that recommended the new rules changes, and he and his fellow panelists were busy. The kicking game drew special attention, and the Jones Rule wasn’t the only thing to be enacted:

[T]eams will kick off at the 35-yard line instead of the 30. Also, players on the kicking team can’t line up for the play behind the 30-yard line, which is intended to limit the running start kicking teams used to have during the play.

Also, touchbacks on free kicks will be moved to the 25-yard line instead of the 20 to encourage more touchbacks. Touchbacks on other plays (for example, punts that go into the end zone, or fumbles that go out of the end zone) will remain at the 20-yard line.

Those rule changes will affect The Citadel on kickoffs, an aspect of special teams the Bulldogs could improve upon. While the kickoff return unit was fine, The Citadel was seventh in the league in net kickoff coverage. A freshman is expected to be the Bulldogs’ kickoff specialist this fall. So far, reviews are good.

Reviews are also good for senior Thomas Warren, who becomes the starting placekicker this season. By all accounts, Warren has had an excellent preseason camp. Missed opportunities in the kicking game cost The Citadel a chance at winning both the Elon and Georgia Southern games last season, and as a result there is a lot of interest (if not angst) among fans about the placekicking unit. It should be pointed out, however, that it’s not all about the kicker. The holder, snapper, and blockers must all do their jobs too.

One thing The Citadel did very well last year was not commit penalties. In fact, the Bulldogs were the least-penalized team in the nation last season, both in terms of number (3.09 per game) and yardage (22.45 yds), which is to the credit of the players and the coaches. I like rooting for a team that doesn’t commit a lot of penalties.

Incidentally, another rules change for this season will particularly impact teams running the triple option:

Offensive players in the tackle box at the snap who are not in motion are allowed to block below the waist legally without restriction. All other players are restricted from blocking below the waist with a few exceptions (for example, straight-ahead blocks).

The Citadel’s opponent on Saturday, Charleston Southern, had a rough season last year. Actually, “rough” may be a nice way to put it, as the Buccaneers were 0-11. Charleston Southern started the season getting blitzed by two FBS opponents (Central Florida and Florida State) by a combined score of 124-10, and never really recovered.

The lowlight of the Bucs’ season was probably the 32-20 loss to Division III Wesley College, which came at CSU’s Homecoming. Charleston Southern lost close games to Jacksonville, VMI, Coastal Carolina, and Gardner-Webb, but also got bashed a few times, including a 30-point loss to Norfolk State and a 31-point defeat to Presbyterian in the season finale.

Non-FBS opponents averaged 35 points per game against the Bucs, and had success on the ground and in the air. CSU allowed 225 rushing yards per game, and 217 passing yards per contest.

Charleston Southern ranked last in the Big South in the following defensive categories: defensive pass efficiency, fumbles recovered, rushing defense, total defense, scoring defense, tackles for loss, sacks, and turnovers gained.

Offensively, CSU ranked last in the Big South in rushing offense and scoring offense. The Bucs were also the worst team in the league at returning kickoffs. On the bright side, Charleston Southern led the Big South in net punting and only lost seven fumbles.

It all added up to a winless season. CSU has now lost twelve straight and eighteen of its last nineteen games.

Charleston Southern has two quarterbacks battling for the starting spot; regardless of which player wins the job, he must improve upon last year’s pass completion percentage (45.7%). I mentioned earlier that CSU finished last in the Big South in rushing offense. In fact, the Bucs only averaged 2.6 yards per carry, and only two starters return on CSU’s offensive line. Charleston Southern quarterbacks were sacked 32 times last year.

The defense has a new coordinator, Shawn Quinn, who was Georgia Southern’s linebackers coach and recruiting coordinator last season. He has work to do. However, given his experience at GSU, he should have a very good idea of how to defend The Citadel’s triple option attack.

Charleston Southern is not completely bereft of experienced talent. Senior cornerback Charles James was selected as the preseason Big South Defensive Player of the Year. He must be an excellent player to receive that kind of accolade while playing for a team coming off an 0-11 campaign. James is a former walk-on who has ten career interceptions; he also made 66 tackles last season for the Bucs and is a fine punt returner as well, averaging just under ten yards per return last season (with one touchdown).

Junior wideout Nathan Perera caught 43 passes (four touchdowns) last season and joined James on the preseason All-Big South squad. Perera averaged over 16 yards per reception. However, he is questionable for the game against The Citadel due to injury.

The Buccaneers’ special teams were respectable in 2011, with the punting units in particular being very solid. However, CSU must replace its punter/placekicker this season.

Charleston Southern was picked to finish last in the Big South’s preseason poll. One of the eighteen voters did tip CSU to finish second, for reasons not immediately apparent.

This year’s Charleston Southern team is probably not as good as the Jacksonville squad that The Citadel faced in last year’s opener. However, the Bucs are likely better than 2010 opening-game opponent Chowan or the Presbyterian outfit the Bulldogs played in the 2009 home opener.

While CSU’s defense last year was porous, it will return seven starters, and that group doesn’t include UGA transfer Damian Dixon, who will likely start in the defensive backfield with Charles James. Add in to the mix a new defensive coordinator who is familiar with The Citadel’s offense, and the result is a unit that should be ready to compete against the Bulldogs.

On the other side of the ball, The Citadel has several players who will be starting for the first time, but the same is going to be true for CSU’s offense. It may be a good situation for the Bulldogs in that respect.

The Citadel should win this game. It probably won’t be a rout, but it ought to be decisive. Losing to the Buccaneers would be disastrous. The Bulldogs will struggle to salvage the rest of the 2012 campaign if they do not prevail on Saturday.

That is pressure. Then again, nobody goes to The Citadel to avoid pressure.

I can’t wait until Saturday.

The Citadel’s varsity sports teams, 2011-12: a brief review

Around this time last year I posted a review of the 2010-11 school year for varsity sports entitled “Larry Leckonby’s Lament“. I wouldn’t call this school year in the department of athletics a lament; rather, it was more a year of transition. At least I hope it was…

First, the setup, just so everyone is on the same page. As I wrote last year:

The Citadel has fifteen varsity sports, by my reckoning.  I count rifle (listed as both a men’s and women’s sport on the school’s website) as just one sport, because it is co-ed.  I consider indoor track and outdoor track to be separate entities, because the Southern Conference awards championships in both of them (and for both men and women).  The school competes in the SoCon in fourteen of the fifteen sports (the exception is rifle).

Last year the rifle team garnered The Citadel its sole conference championship of the 2010-11 school year, the SEARC title. This year, the Bulldogs finished second. Before I move on to the rest of the sports, which play under the SoCon banner, I want to make a couple of quick points/observations about the rifle team:

— Anyone interested can donate to the rifle team through this link; it’s some kind of $3-for-$1 deal. I think this particular fundraising effort may have flown under the radar. The team did get a $20,000 donation from the National Wild Turkey Foundation. Wild turkeys themselves largely approved of this donation, under the theory that the more shooting that takes place at the range, the less that goes on in the field.

— When I wrote my infamous manifesto on varsity athletics at The Citadel a few months back, I noted that increasing the budget of the rifle program, if at all possible, would be a good idea, particularly since The Citadel is a military college with a great shooting facility. This is an NCAA sport, and one in which the school can compete on a national level.

As for the remaining fourteen sports, the average finish for the varsity teams in league play was 8.6, with an average of 10.5 competing schools for each sport. In other words, the average finish was third-from-last. Reviewing the year on a sport-by-sport basis:

— Women’s soccer: After a breakthrough season in 2010, one in which The Citadel finished third in the SoCon, the soccer team regressed to a 5-11-3 overall record, finishing ninth in the league and missing the conference tournament. It was a disappointing season, but it is to Bob Winch’s credit that a year in which the women’s soccer team won three league games and tied two others could be considered a disappointment.

— Wrestling: The Citadel had three individual conference champions, and tied for second in the league tournament after a third-place finish in the regular season. This was an improvement on the prior campaign, when the Bulldogs finished fourth of six teams. All in all, a solid year for the mat men.

— The Citadel finished fourth in the SoCon (out of nine teams) in both men’s indoor and outdoor track, one spot better than last year. The women were 9th (out of twelve teams) in outdoor track, which was the same as last season, but slipped to 11th out of 12 indoors.  On the bright side, at least they scored a few points at the respective SoCon meets. Davidson managed to score just one point in the two women’s competitions combined.

One of the more interesting stories in this varsity sports year for The Citadel came in men’s outdoor track. From the school’s season recap release:

Decathlete Ellison Glenn was the team’s biggest surprise this season. Glenn, who walked on the team as a senior, improved each week and capped his short collegiate track career with a fourth place finish in the decathlon and eighth place mark in the javelin at the 2012 SoCon Outdoor Championship.

“He came in and asked to be part of the team and we debated, but he kept coming to practice and sticking with it so we gave him a shot to see how it would shake out for us and it worked out amazingly,” said Bulldog head coach Jody Huddleston. “Taking fourth and eighth place and earning points in the conference meet after competing in college track for just one year is amazing.”

— As usual, the Bulldogs struggled (at least compared to their league peers) in cross country, although the men did climb one spot, finishing ninth out of eleven competing schools after finishing next-to-last the year before. The women were also next-to-last in 2010; in 2011, alas, they were last.

Remember, Charleston is not exactly conducive to fantastic cross country training. The Citadel’s best placement in the league in school history came in 1972, when it finished third.

— Tennis: Last year the Bulldogs were 3-21, 0-10 in the SoCon. This year a new coach took over. The results were about the same, though; The Citadel was 5-18 overall, and again went winless in the league. At least this year the Bulldogs beat a fellow Division I school (Bethune-Cookman).

— Volleyball: This was another sport with a first-year head coach, and another sport with a similar-looking record from last year. This year’s team won one more match than last year’s squad while finishing with the exact same league record (1-15).

— Women’s golf: The Citadel finished last, again, but some progress appears to have been made. At the SoCon Championships, the team finished 112 shots behind league champ Chattanooga. That’s actually an improvement from 2011, when the Bulldogs were 149 shots back of the conference titlists. The Citadel also had a golfer (Erica Pellegrini) named SoCon Player of the Week for the week ending March 6, which was unprecedented.

— Baseball: The Citadel had a second consecutive losing season, the first time that’s happened since 1966-67. However, there were bright spots in a year that clearly was one of transition, and the Bulldogs did make the league tournament this year after failing to do so in 2011. The key for 2013 will be to make sure the contributing freshmen from the squad all return (not to mention the sophomores and juniors as well).

— Basketball: 6-24, 3-15. Like baseball, lots of freshmen were employed. The problem with going through a tough year with a bunch of young players wasn’t as much that the Bulldogs only won six games this season; it’s that the transition (there’s that word again) came after a terribly disappointing 2010-11 campaign.

I’m afraid the enthusiasm for the hoops program will have to be self-generated until the team starts winning. When that happens, of course, everyone will jump on the bandwagon. It is the nature of sports.

— Football: Well, 4-7 (2-6) is better than 3-8 (1-7)…by one game. That bald assessment would be a bit harsh, as the team competed well almost every week, showing a good deal of improvement, and could easily have won two or three more games. The Bulldogs could have also lost that crazy game to Chattanooga and finished with the same exact record, too. Bill Parcells (“you are what your record says you are”) is right.

Prior to the last two years, The Citadel had not had back-to-back losing seasons in the “Big 3” sports over the same two-year period since the 1965-66 and 1966-67 school years. This year wasn’t as bad as last year, but the difference, at least in terms of raw wins and losses, was marginal.

Excuse the copy-and-paste approach to blogging, but I said this last year and I’ll say it this year:

The department of athletics pivots off the success of the football team; it’s the most high-profile sport at the school, it’s where the money is made, and I also think that it sometimes establishes momentum for the other sports.

I can’t emphasize enough how important the upcoming football season is going to be, not just for Kevin Higgins’ program, but for the entire varsity sports scene at The Citadel. A “positive vibe” is badly needed.

Simply put, the team has to win. It won’t be easy, as the schedule is not particularly favorable, but there can be no excuses. Next year has to be this year.

Let’s hope there is a lot more winning in all of The Citadel’s varsity sports in 2012-13.

Talking stats: SoCon football and turnovers

I was reading Jeff Hartsell’s review of The Citadel’s football season in The Post and Courier. In the second post of the three-part series, head coach Kevin Higgins had this to say about turnovers:

 We didn’t get as many turnovers as I would have liked. We just didn’t have that many opportunities. That’s something we’ll have to study in the off-season and address that. We need to be able to turn the ball over — one more turnover against Samford or Georgia Southern or App State could have meant the difference in any of those games.

I thought it might be an interesting idea to dig a little deeper into the statistical record to see what The Citadel could do to force more turnovers. However, that meant more than just going by the raw data.

First, I decided that it would be best to concentrate solely on Southern Conference play. Including games played against the likes of Virginia Tech and Virginia-Wise (just to name two SoCon opponents) would make the statistics something less than balanced. Besides, teams are ultimately judged on how they fare against league opponents. There is also the benefit of each team’s conference statistical summary including four home and four away games.

Another consideration was trying to account for the different types of offenses employed by SoCon teams, including three “true” triple option teams and several schools running the spread, and with varied paces of play. That is why I felt it was important to focus on certain percentage categories, rather than totals.

I compiled data (league play only) for a number of different statistics, both for offense and defense. After doing this, I put together a spreadsheet which you can access at the link below:

Southern Conference 2011 Football Statistics

I trust most of what is on the spreadsheet makes at least some sense.

Before I get to my conclusions about The Citadel’s issues with forcing turnovers (along with observations on some other SoCon schools), I want to make a few points:

– It is generally accepted that there is no real skill in recovering fumbles. Anyone who follows any of the websites that study professional football statistics/history is aware of this. Football Outsiders puts it best:

Stripping the ball is a skill. Holding onto the ball is a skill. Pouncing on the ball as it is bouncing all over the place is not a skill. There is no correlation whatsoever between the percentage of fumbles recovered by a team in one year and the percentage they recover in the next year. The odds of recovery are based solely on the type of play involved, not the teams or any of their players.

Fans like to insist that specific coaches can teach their teams to recover more fumbles by swarming to the ball. Chicago’s Lovie Smith, in particular, is supposed to have this ability. However, since Smith took over the Bears, their rate of fumble recovery on defense went from a league-best 76 percent to a league-worst 33 percent in 2005, then back to 67 percent in 2006. Last year, they recovered 57 percent of fumbles, close to the league average.

Fumble recovery is equally erratic on offense. In 2008, the Bears fumbled 12 times on offense and recovered only three of them. In 2009, the Bears fumbled 18 times on offense, but recovered 13 of them.

Fumble recovery is a major reason why the general public overestimates or underestimates certain teams. Fumbles are huge, turning-point plays that dramatically impact wins and losses in the past, while fumble recovery percentage says absolutely nothing about a team’s chances of winning games in the future.

Although this makes perfect sense, it is understandable that longtime football fans might not be so sure. I think the best way to illustrate the randomness of fumble recoveries is to highlight Pittsburgh Steelers legend Jack Lambert, who besides being a fantastic linebacker was one of my favorite players.

In the 1975 AFC championship game against the Oakland Raiders, Lambert recovered three fumbles. In the following year, 1976, he recovered an amazing eight fumbles (in fourteen games) for a remarkable Steelers defense. Lambert had a “nose for the football”, to say the least — and yet…

Those three fumble recoveries against the Raiders were the only recoveries he made in eighteen career playoff games. Those eight fumble recoveries in the ’76 regular season? They make up almost half of his career total (17).

Not everything about the NFL applies to college football, of course, particularly in FCS play, but there is no doubt that this particular observation does hold at the college level. Basically, when a ball is loose on the ground each team has a 50-50 shot at getting it. In 2011, there were 130 fumbles in Southern Conference play. The defense recovered 69 of those fumbles, or 53%. Congratulations to SoCon defenses!

No team in league play had a particularly unusual percentage when it came to recovered fumbles, either from an offensive or defensive perspective. It may be that an individual school was luckier or unluckier by a fumble or two, but that’s about it.

That isn’t to say that fumbles aren’t important, because they are. Often a fumble is more damaging to an offense than an interception (because of lost field position). However, they aren’t predictive events.

That doesn’t mean coaches shouldn’t be training their players to use the Lawrence Taylor “chop”, or continuing to have drills emphasizing fumble recoveries. It’s just that everybody does those things.

– Another thing to remember: interceptions (from a defensive perspective) tend to be random too.

This one isn’t quite as intuitive as the fumble recovery factoid, but think about it this way. Most interceptions result from a bad pass thrown by the quarterback. However, what has (normally) happened is that the QB has thrown a bad pass that was caught by a defender, instead of a bad pass that just hits the ground; there is an element of chance to this. That is why team defense interception totals can vary wildly from year to year even with similar personnel.

That isn’t to say that defenses can’t create situations where interception-prone offenses will toss the pigskin to the wrong players. I wanted to see what teams in the SoCon did the best job at pressuring the quarterback, which seemed to me to be a good way of forcing offensive errors.

I compiled sack percentage and interception percentage to see if they correlated. Again, I didn’t use raw totals, because there is a big difference when facing a team that throws the ball seven times per game (Wofford) versus forty times per game (Elon). The “pressures” statistic isn’t readily available for the SoCon; I suspect that there would have been similarities between team pressures and sacks. At least, I hope so.

You can see the numbers in the linked spreadsheet. Some observations:

– It is no accident that the three teams to make the playoffs (Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, and Wofford) are in the upper echelon when it comes to defensive sack percentage. Furman, which finished fourth in the league, finished second in the category. Leading the category was Chattanooga (more about the Mocs later).

– Defensive interception percentage does seem to at least have some correlation to defensive sack percentage. The exceptions: Samford (which intercepted more passes than it “should” have), and Wofford and UTC (each of which intercepted fewer passes than a correlation might suggest). The Terriers, in particular, seem to have been short-changed a few picks.

The Citadel’s defense finished last in interception percentage. The Bulldogs were seventh in sack percentage, ahead of only Samford and Western Carolina. I think it’s no coincidence that The Citadel didn’t intercept many passes after having less-than-stellar sack numbers. (Admittedly, that’s a rather obvious conclusion.)

– I also examined the offensive statistics for the same categories. The Citadel finished as the worst team in the league in both interceptions thrown (by percentage) and fumbles per play. The Bulldogs fumbled 23 times in SoCon action, losing ten of them. (Curiously, Georgia Southern also fumbled 23 times in league play, losing ten.)

While I tracked fumbles per play, I elected not to go through every game account to determine whether fumbles occurred on rushing or passing plays; that would have taken more hours and more days than I have, to be honest. In the NFL, the average rushing play results in a fumble 1.16% of the time, while a pass play will end with a fumble 2.04% of the time. Interestingly, 18% of all sacks in the NFL (2000-2009 time period) resulted in fumbles.

I’m not sure those numbers are quite as relevant at the college level; for one thing, there is a lot more fumbling in SoCon play than in the NFL (2.66% vs. 1.67%). There is also a lot more running than passing in the conference (almost a 2-to-1 differential).

Those sack/fumble stats are something to think about, however.

Meaningless trivia: there was only one game in the Southern Conference this season in which neither team fumbled: Georgia Southern-Appalachian State.

– The “luckiest” team, at least on the surface, appears to have been Samford, which finished eighth in defensive sack percentage but fourth in defensive interception percentage. The Birmingham Bulldogs also had the best rates for offensive interceptions thrown (with the fourth-best sacks against percentage), so it worked out both ways for Samford.

I have to wonder if Samford’s pace of play had something to do with that. Samford ran the most plays from scrimmage of any team in the league, and also faced the second-most plays on defense (Western Carolina drew the short straw in that category).

– Balance, as always, is overrated. Samford was by far the most balanced team on offense (305 runs, 301 passes) and finished 4-4 in league play. The second-most balanced team was WCU, which was 0-8. There is nothing offensively balanced about Georgia Southern and Wofford; those two playoff teams combined for a league record of 13-3.

– I don’t know what to make of Chattanooga. Usually a team that loses so many close games (including three by the same exact score, 28-27) doesn’t do itself any favors in the turnover battle, but the Mocs tied for the league lead in fumbles recovered and led the league in forced fumbles. UTC also finished second-best in the league in offensive lost fumbles.

UTC didn’t have the rate of return on defensive interceptions that might have been expected by its league-leading defensive sack percentage, but it wasn’t bad. The Mocs did have a higher average offensive interception percentage, but it wasn’t abysmal.

I think it would take a more detailed look at Chattanooga to figure out exactly how and when things went wrong for the Mocs, but I can safely say no team in the league was unluckier than UTC — just not as unlucky in the things you usually would associate with unlucky teams.

I guess my final conclusion, at least with regards to The Citadel, is that the Bulldogs must get more pressure on the quarterback if they expect to increase their defensive turnovers. However, it has to be remembered that defensive turnovers are an effect of good play, not a cause of good play.

I would also suggest the Bulldogs were a touch lucky on offense themselves when it came to turnovers, and need to continue to improve the consistency of execution on that side of the ball.

I admit my analysis of The Citadel (and some of the other teams in the league) may be flawed. That’s one reason I included the spreadsheet, in case anyone else wants to take a crack at what the numbers may mean.

Game Review 2011: Samford

Samford 19, The Citadel 14.

Ugh. I’m not sure what really needs to be said about this game, which The Citadel should have won but let get away. Just a terrible loss. I’ll just make a few haphazard comments and observations:

— Fashion update for this week: The Citadel went with the navy jerseys/white pants look for Homecoming, which I guess is its postmodern traditional look. It was the first time the Bulldogs wore that combo this season; they also wore them once last season, in the game against Chattanooga. The Citadel lost both games.

— The Citadel has now lost five consecutive “celebration weekend” games — in other words, Parents Day/Homecoming contests. It’s only the third time the Bulldogs have lost five straight PD/HC games, and the first time since the 1985-1987 seasons.

I think that’s significant because those are generally the two most highly attended games of each season. Continuing to lose those contests isn’t going to engender a lot of enthusiasm among the alums and supporters at the games. Of course, attendance on Saturday dipped below 14,000, a very disappointing crowd for a Homecoming game on a nice Saturday afternoon.

— I am the first person to say that The Citadel needs to be on television more often, but after sitting through all those interminable TV timeouts, I think I might settle for just the road games being televised. (Okay, I’m joking. Sort of.)

Then there is the “TV jinx”: The Citadel has now lost 16 of its last 17 televised games (counting ESPN.com), which is ridiculous. That total includes the last seven seasons. It could rise to 17 for 18 after this week’s game against South Carolina.

While I’m ranting, put me down as someone who hates the 3:00 pm kickoff…

— Samford ran 79 offensive plays from scrimmage, exactly what the Birmingham Bulldogs wanted to do, and those plays were not completely imbalanced in terms of run/pass. While The Citadel held the time of possession edge, Samford was able to sustain a number of drives, with five of them going for nine plays or longer. Dustin Taliferro managed to throw 45 passes without being intercepted.

Samford also rushed for 113 yards, lower than it would have liked but just enough for the victory. Of course, a lot of those yards came on the game-winning drive.

— The Citadel lost two fumbles, which hurt (particularly the second one), but the loss can be attributed in large part to the two blocked field goal attempts. The Bulldogs have now had four placekicks blocked in the last two games.

From my vantage point, the problem on Saturday was a protection issue. However, I might be wrong about that. Kevin Higgins stated after the game that “”We know our operation time is slow from the center back to the holder,” but this photo does make one wonder.

It goes without saying that it is unacceptable to have four kicks blocked over a seven-kick span. It appears that Georgia Southern exploited a flaw, and that this was not adequately addressed in the week leading up to the Samford game.

The Citadel has now lost three league games this season because of placekicking unit issues. I’ve said this before (actually, last week), but the Bulldogs do not have enough margin for error to survive continued woes in this area. The SoCon is an unforgiving league; if a team has a weakness, it will pay for that weakness more often than not.

— The playcalling at the end of the drive that resulted in the second blocked field goal was…frustrating. I realize that a lot of this is predicated on QB reads, but the sequence on first-and-ten at the Samford 11-yard line went like this: Darien Robinson up the middle for two yards, Darien Robinson up the middle for a one-yard loss, Darien Robinson up the middle for no gain. Oof.

I’m not calling the plays, and everyone should be thankful that I’m not, but a little something different had to be in order there. Toss sweep, anyone?

— I am on record as saying that alums have at times been a little hard on the corps of cadets, but I was very disappointed in the corps’ performance on Saturday. The upperclassmen did not even bother to stand for the opening kickoff.

I’m sorry to be an old fogey, but that’s simply not going to cut it. If the cadets are so tired that they lack the energy to cheer on their team for three hours, then I think they are clearly too exhausted to go out on the town after the game. My recommendation to Gen. Rosa and Col. Mercado would be to let the clearly fatigued young men and women of the corps stagger back to campus immediately after the game is over and head straight to bed. There is no need to worry about overnights/extra hours of leave, as an 8 pm lights-out would be much more appropriate.

On to game eleven. The scene shifts to Columbia. I predict a busy week is ahead for a certain ex-QB named Jack Douglas…

2011 Football Game 10: The Citadel vs. Samford

The Citadel vs. Samford, to be played at historic Johnson Hagood Stadium, with kickoff at 3:00 pm ET on Saturday, November 12.  The contest will be televised on the SoCon Network, with play-by-play by Darren Goldwater (formerly the “Voice of the Bulldogs”) and analysis by Doug Chapman. It is also available via the ESPN3.com platform. The game can be heard on radio via The Citadel Sports Network, with current “Voice of the Bulldogs” Danny Reed calling the action alongside analyst Walt Nadzak

This is another “combo” post, with a brief review of the Georgia Southern game and a preview of the Samford contest.

Georgia Southern 14, The Citadel 12.

There isn’t a whole lot to add to what has already been said and written about the game. I’ll just make a few points:

— In my preview of the game I devoted the better part of two paragraphs to Brent Russell, Georgia Southern’s star nosetackle. I expected him to be a major factor in the game, so news that he wasn’t going to play gave me hope that the Bulldogs could establish themselves offensively. I thought he was that important, and I think the way the game went bore that out. The Citadel rushed for a respectable 239 yards, averaging 4.6 yards per carry.

Russell’s absence surely had an impact on the Bulldogs’ ability to gain yards up the middle, as Darien Robinson had an outstanding afternoon, rushing for 92 yards and a TD on only nine carries. Good teams take advantage of opportunities, and I felt in this respect The Citadel did just that.

— While there was some focus on the missed field goal at the end of the game, that wasn’t what bothered me (especially with the wind issues). The two blocked PATs were what bothered me. It is unacceptable to have one PAT blocked in a game, much less two. Field goals are going to be missed from time to time, but PATs should be all but automatic.

The Citadel has done a lot of good things in the area of special teams this season, most notably the Bulldogs’ punt-blocking exploits. Cass Couey has had a fine year, and even the kick return teams have improved over the last three games (including Kevin Hardy’s tone-setting 50-yard return to open up the festivities in Statesboro).

The Bulldogs are still struggling with kick coverage and placekicking, however, and that isn’t all on the kickers, not by a long shot. Those struggles are also, unfortunately, not a one-year aberration. Thinking about this game, I remembered that I had written about another game against Georgia Southern that got away from The Citadel three years ago. That one also came down to placekicking problems.

The Citadel does not have much margin for error when playing football in the Southern Conference. It cannot afford to lose a game or two each season because of a recurring problem that should be correctable.

I’m not saying it’s easy, because it’s not. Alabama probably just lost a shot at making the BCS title game because Nick Saban didn’t have a placekicker on the roster capable of making long field goals under pressure — and that’s at tradition-rich Alabama, with 85 scholarships at its disposal (not even taking oversigning into account). Bobby Bowden and Florida State lost a couple of mythical crowns in the early 1990s because of an unreliable kicking game.

Despite those examples, your typical 50-year-old male thinks he can roll out of bed and make a 35-yard field goal. That’s just the way the position (and overall placekicking unit) is perceived.

— Okay, now for something tangentially related, but still worth following (at least, I think so)…

Some fans of the Bulldogs may remember that The Post and Courier elected not to send a beat writer for The Citadel’s game at Western Carolina three weeks ago. This was the first time in recent memory that the newspaper had not covered a SoCon football game involving The Citadel. The decision was reportedly not made by the sports department.

At the time, I wrote:

Obviously these are tough times for the newspaper business, so it’s not shocking the paper would cut an occasional corner.  This time it came at the expense of coverage for The Citadel’s football team, which should be a concern for any fan of the military college.

I’m hopeful it was just a one-time thing…

It appears to have been just that, for now. Jeff Hartsell was in Statesboro on Saturday.

The reason I am bringing this up again is that I noticed The Post and Courier sent two reporters to Fayetteville, Arkansas, to cover the South Carolina-Arkansas game. Both Gamecocks beat writer Darryl Slater (a recent hire by the paper) and general sports columnist Gene Sapakoff were at that contest.

It occurs to me that Cullowhee is a lot closer to Charleston than Fayetteville…

It probably doesn’t mean anything. It’s just something to watch.

Pat Sullivan knew he had to make some changes to Samford’s offense after last season, one in which a good defense could not make up for a less than dynamic offense. In 2010, the Birmingham Bulldogs averaged just over 10 points per game at home and finished 4-7 (despite an upset over Georgia Southern). The final game of the season was a 13-12 home loss to The Citadel.

Sullivan brought in several new coaches, with the key hire being 28-year-old Rhett Lashlee, a protege of Auburn offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn. Lashlee has installed the hurry-up/spread system run by Malzahn, the same offensive philosophy employed by fellow Malzahn acolyte Chad Morris of Clemson.

Thus, Samford’s meat-and-potatoes attack of years past has been replaced by an offense that spreads the field and tries to run 80 plays from scrimmage per game. It has been, for the most part, successful. Samford is averaging over 30 points per game, ranking third in the SoCon in scoring offense, total offense, and passing offense. It is also fifth in the league in rushing offense, a very respectable placement considering the three triple-option attacks in the conference tend to dominate that statistical category.

Samford has scored at least 17 points in every Southern Conference game this season, a far cry from last year. However, Sullivan’s squad has not been as strong defensively, perhaps in part because of the nature of the offense (Samford’s opponents have a time of possession advantage of close to five minutes). Samford is seventh in the league in scoring defense, next-to-last in total defense, and next-to-last in pass defense (though that is misleading, as it is second in defensive pass efficiency).

Samford has allowed at least 21 points in every SoCon game this season. The second half of games has occasionally been problematic, as the team has allowed 21 second-half points to both Furman and Wofford, and 24 to Georgia Southern.

In Samford’s five wins, the Birmingham Bulldogs have rushed for 304, 160, 181, 348 (Elon), and 303 yards. In its four losses, the rushing totals have been 61, 34 (Wofford), 84, and 92.

If that’s not a key indicator, I don’t know what is.

As far as how the Samford defense has fared against the other triple-option offenses in the league, Wofford rushed for 443 yards, while Georgia Southern’s ground attack put up 263. Both of those schools controlled the running game on both sides of the ball. I think a good goal for Triple O’Higgins would be an average of those two rush totals — 353 yards.

If you think Dustin Taliaferro has been Samford’s quarterback for a long time, you would be correct. He’s been taking snaps for Samford since 2008. The new offense seems to be to his liking (Kevin Higgins called him “much improved”). He is completing almost 62% of his passes this season, with 12 TDs against 8 interceptions. He threw three of those TDs against Furman.

Fabian Truss also had a good game against the Paladins, rushing for 136 yards. He was even better the next week against Elon, piling up 191 rushing yards in that game. Sullivan noted that Truss was hurt last week against Chattanooga, a game in which he carried the ball ten times for 46 yards. It was the fourth consecutive game in which his rush attempts from scrimmage had declined. Despite that, Truss still leads the SoCon in all-purpose yardage (he is averaging almost 30 yards per kick return).

Taliaferro’s primary receiving targets are Kelsey Pope (56 catches, five for touchdowns) and Riley Hawkins (33 receptions, two TDs). Hawkins is also Samford’s main punt returner, and he’s a very good one, leading the league in punt return average (11.7 yards). Samford has outstanding kick return teams and also has a solid placekicker in Cameron Yaw, who has made 18 of 23 field goals.

Samford will be motivated to win this game in part because a victory would clinch a winning season for the visitors from Birmingham. If Samford loses to The Citadel, it would have to win its season finale to get that elusive sixth victory. That last game, though, is at Auburn.

This is going to be a tough matchup for The Citadel. It is a winnable game, to be sure. Of course, that has been the case for the Bulldogs most of the season, which in itself is suggestive of the improvement the team has made this year.

It is also Homecoming, so a fairly sizeable crowd should be on hand. I hope that a significant portion of those in attendance actually wander into Johnson Hagood Stadium to watch the game. It should be a good one.

Congratulations to all the reunion year classes, particularly the Class of 1961, which is having its 50th-year celebration.

I’ll be at the game this Saturday. I won’t be at any of the reunions, but I’ll be in the stands, rooting on the home team. The weather forecast for Charleston is promising. I hope things are just as sunny for the Bulldogs.

2011 Football Game 9: The Citadel vs. Georgia Southern

The Citadel at Georgia Southern, to be played at Paulson Stadium, with kickoff at 2:00 pm ET on Saturday, November 5.  The game will not be televised. The game can be heard on radio via The Citadel Sports Network, with “Voice of the Bulldogs” Danny Reed calling the action alongside analyst Walt Nadzak.   Bulldog Insider will also provide free audio; the only video available for this game is being provided by Georgia Southern as part of a subscription service.

I’ve already written about The Citadel’s victory over VMI. There isn’t much to add to that, except I did want to briefly mention VMI’s fans.  The Keydets brought more supporters to Johnson Hagood Stadium than Wofford did, and weren’t too far behind Furman in the “travel” category. That’s very impressive, given that A) it’s a long trip, and B) VMI hasn’t had a winning season in 30 years.  Full credit to VMI’s fans, a group that surely deserves better results on the gridiron.

Now the Bulldogs face what could be their biggest challenge of the season to date, a road game against Georgia Southern, which until last week was unbeaten and ranked #1 in the country in both FCS polls. The Eagles saw their perfect season go by the boards in a 24-17 loss in Boone to Appalachian State, and are likely to be a rather surly bunch right now, just in time for Homecoming in Statesboro. Beautiful Eagle Creek may seem a little less beautiful right now.

One thing Georgia Southern can’t really afford to do at this point in the season is lose to The Citadel, because it would put the Eagles in a rather difficult position. Right now GSU is 7-1 with three games remaining. After hosting the Bulldogs, Georgia Southern finishes the regular season with two road games. One of those is in Spartanburg against fellow SoCon title contender Wofford, while the finale is a matchup with BCS title contender Alabama.

If Georgia Southern were to lose all three games, it would finish at 7-4, and would have a borderline case for a postseason bid. The record wouldn’t be great, and GSU would have finished the campaign with four straight defeats. Even more problematic would be the fact that the Eagles would have only six victories against Division I teams, as one of GSU’s wins came against Division II Tusculum.

Technically, an FCS playoff at-large team doesn’t need seven D-1 wins, but historically it has been a de facto rule that at-large candidates should have at least seven such victories. (That may change if there is more postseason expansion.)

GSU definitely needs to win one of its next two games to ensure a playoff bid, and probably needs to win both to garner a national seed.

Although the odds of Georgia Southern getting left out of the FCS postseason are low, it’s important not to overlook the problem of scheduling both a “money” game and a matchup against a non-D1 squad. While a team that closes a season with four straight losses isn’t likely to get an at-large berth anyway, what if Georgia Southern had lost earlier in the season (say, to Chattanooga, a one-point victory for the Eagles), and then finished the year with a win over The Citadel but a tough loss at Wofford, and then the expected defeat to the Crimson Tide?

A SoCon team with 7 wins and a loss to Alabama would normally be at worst a marginal at-large contender, but GSU would only have six D-1 victories and would presumably be out of the running.

That’s why it is better, when looking for a no-return home game, that ADs at schools with playoff aspirations try to schedule D-1 schools rather than D-2 or NAIA teams. It’s not that easy to find FCS schools willing to make a one-way trip, at least not cheaply, but it’s something that needs to be done. Of course, there is the additional risk that the school in question may be good enough to actually win the game.

For The Citadel, Jacksonville was an excellent season-opening opponent in this respect. Presbyterian would also be a good candidate, and of course there is a long tradition of games between the Bulldogs and the Blue Hose. Newberry, on the other hand, is probably not an option, since it is still D-2.

For some fans of the Eagles, the playoffs aren’t enough. There is still a significant group of Georgia Southern supporters who believe that it is time for GSU to make the move to the land of FBS. The school published a study on the issue two years ago. At the time I wrote about whether GSU should make the leap, the latest round of conference-jumping wasn’t even on the horizon, much less a staple of hourly news reports.

I think it is even more of a risk to move to FBS now than it was two years ago, because there is major uncertainty about what that division will become in the next few years. Georgia Southern (and Appalachian State) supporters hoping to become part of the FBS club are dreaming of a chance to join a league like the Sun Belt or, in a best-case scenario, Conference USA.

Even if that were to happen, though, in the current climate there is a possibility it would amount to jumping on a treadmill. If the much-theorized breakaway by the major programs to form super-conferences comes to pass, Sun Belt and C-USA schools are not likely to be part of the chosen few. They are more likely to wind up in a larger FCS.

The Citadel has won two straight games, reason for optimism in the continuing story that is Triple O’Higgins. However, I think there is still reason to be cautious. While I’m not one to complain about any victory, Western Carolina and VMI are not exactly the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers when it comes to football prowess. While the Bulldog D has generally been excellent this season, The Citadel’s triple option attack is still very much a work in progress.

That isn’t to say that strides haven’t been made, because they have. It’s just that the Bulldogs haven’t really had that “eureka” moment, or game, at least not yet. It may be that it won’t happen this season.

Was there such a defining game in 1988, the second year of Charlie Taaffe’s wishbone attack? Was there a specific game when everyone realized that the Bulldogs were no longer learning how to run the offense, but were instead refining it?

Well, I’m not sure. Looking back at the seven-game winning streak in 1988, there wasn’t a true breakout game in terms of rushing yardage. It was more of a gradual increase, from 290 yards rushing (Navy) to 322 (Western Carolina), then a blip downwards (187 vs. Chattanooga), then the two games started by Tommy Burriss (278 yards rushing against Boston University and 301 vs. East Tennessee State).

Tangent: as it happens, the two games Burriss started in 1988 both came against schools that in the next few years would drop their respective football programs. I don’t think this can be blamed on Burriss, however.

The contest against ETSU could qualify as the game that truly established the offense as a force, as in addition to the rushing yardage the Bulldogs threw for 199 yards, with the 500 yards of total offense being the most in a game for the cadets since 1980. The Citadel scored 48 points against ETSU (31 in the second quarter).

The game against the Buccaneers was the eighth of the 1988 campaign. In the ninth game, Gene Brown would return from injury and lead the Bulldogs to one of their more celebrated victories, a 20-3 Homecoming triumph over #1 Marshall.

It would be nice to have a similar result in the ninth game of this season…

It won’t be easy, though, as the Eagles rank first in the SoCon in scoring defense and rush defense. One big reason why is Georgia Southern nosetackle Brent Russell, who Kevin Higgins called “the best defensive lineman in the country at our level.” It’s hard to argue the point. In last week’s loss to Appalachian State, the redshirt junior registered a career-high ten tackles.

One of the more notable performances in Russell’s career came last season against Navy, when he completely dominated the line of scrimmage, a major reason why Navy was held to 193 total yards (109 rushing). The Midshipmen managed to win the game despite Russell’s efforts, 13-7.

I found it interesting that in his weekly SoCon teleconference, GSU coach Jeff Monken was quick to praise Mike Sellers, the Bulldogs’ sophomore center. When The Citadel’s offense faces Georgia Southern’s defense, the critical matchup could be between the two players who line up closest to the ball.

Incidentally (or maybe not so incidentally), Georgia Southern’s defense has forced a punt on their opponents’ opening possession six times. Presbyterian’s opening drive against the Eagles resulted in a field goal attempt that was blocked. The only time the opposition scored on its initial possession against Georgia Southern was last week, when Appalachian State’s first drive resulted in a touchdown. Obviously, that’s also the only game GSU has lost.

Jaybo Shaw, GSU’s quarterback, was injured early in the contest last season at Johnson Hagood Stadium, so (presuming he stays healthy) this will be the first time The Citadel has seen him in extended game action. The Bulldogs will get their fill of quarterbacks named Shaw, however, as they will face Jaybo’s brother Connor in the game at South Carolina. Two Shaws in three weeks is probably a record.

Shaw’s passing numbers are reasonably solid, if modest by comparison to “normal” offenses. He has completed 54% of his throws for five touchdowns, against two interceptions. More importantly, he is averaging 11.2 yards per attempt, as the Eagles are third nationally (second in the SoCon) in pass efficiency. Shaw has rushed for 261 yards and seven touchdowns.

He has distributed the ball well in GSU’s triple option attack, with a bevy of running backs featuring for the Eagles. Robert Brown, the starting B-back, is the leading ground-gainer on the season for GSU. Included in his totals are 178 yards versus Chattanooga, 140 yards against Samford, and 116 yards versus Elon. He is averaging nearly seven yards per carry.

Georgia Southern’s offensive line has included the same five starters in every game except for last week’s contest, with the two-deep released by the school indicating the standard five-man group will return for the game against The Citadel. Three of the five are seniors.

GSU leads the nation in scoring offense (41.1 points per game) and is second in rushing offense.

The Eagles are also dangerous on special teams. Laron Scott averages 35. 5 yards per kick return, tops in FCS. As for punt returner Darreion Robinson, statistics don’t tell the whole story. This effort against Appalachian State does: Link

Saturday’s game against Georgia Southern will be a challenge, but that’s all right. The players won’t be dreading the trip to Statesboro; rather, they will be relishing it. It’s an opportunity to see how far the Bulldogs have come, and how far they still need to go.

2011 Football Game 6: The Citadel vs. Appalachian State

The Citadel vs. Appalachian State, to be played at historic Johnson Hagood Stadium, with kickoff at 2:00 pm ET on Saturday, October 15.  The game will not be televised. There will be a webcast on Bulldog Insider (subscription service), and the game can be heard on radio via The Citadel Sports Network, with “Voice of the Bulldogs” Danny Reed calling the action alongside analyst Walt Nadzak.

This post will serve as a combo review of Wofford/preview of Appy.  I’m going to be having “combo posts” for at least two more weeks, if not longer.

Wofford 43, The Citadel 14.

I’m not sure there is a lot to say about this game that isn’t blindingly obvious, but I’ll try my best anyway.

— In his weekly press conference, Kevin Higgins noted that Wofford’s punt return TD “took the wind out of [the team’s] sails”.  I would say it probably just solidified things in that department; the die was cast when the Terriers moved down the field with ease on the opening possession of the game and scored their first touchdown.

— The horrendous start probably put the kibosh on any cadet corps frivolity, as it’s hard to get wound up for a game when it takes on “no hoper” status that quickly.  I’ve seen some criticism of the corps for its lack of enthusiasm on Saturday, but to be honest I’m inclined to give the cadets a mulligan.

Plus, the issues with the atmosphere at Johnson Hagood Stadium go a lot further than the corps.  The scene on Saturday was particularly jarring, as the tailgating crowd was huge, but when I turned around to survey things shortly before the game started, there just weren’t many people in the stands.  It did fill in a bit a few minutes later; I guess folks knew there was no reason to show up on time, since the Bulldogs don’t score in the first quarter anyway.

I guess a lot of people just wanted to stay in the parking lots and listen to the game on the radio, or perhaps watch/listen to the South Carolina game instead.

It’s a problem.  I’ve typed that before, and I suspect I’ll be typing it again.  Getting those people into the stands is going to be a tall order, at least until The Citadel starts winning on a consistent basis.

The game against Appalachian State will likely be a bit different, as it will be Parents’ Weekend.

— Wofford did not commit a turnover on Saturday and also did not commit a penalty, which was a story in itself, as the Terriers entered the game as the most-penalized team in the Southern Conference.  That was something of an anomaly, as Wofford is usually not a heavily-penalized outfit (much like The Citadel).

In the last four games against The Citadel, Wofford has committed a total of five penalties (for a combined 30 yards).  That includes a delay-of-game penalty the Terriers took on purpose in order to set up a short punt in the 2008 contest.  Only one of the penalties was for more than five yards (a holding penalty in that same 2008 game).

I am not a defensive coordinator, and never will be, and I’m not going to pretend to understand the intricacies involved in running a defense.  When I see a box score in which the opponent did not commit a turnover or a penalty, though, I wonder if the problem is at least partly a lack of aggression.

Wofford aggressively defended The Citadel’s option by having a man go “down hard to attack the fullback“.  The tactic led to bad reads and mistakes by the Bulldogs.  In other words, the Terriers forced the issue.

Mike Ayers was quoted after the game as saying that to “stop the triple option, [you] have to put teams in negative plays.”  Wofford did that.  The Citadel’s defense did not. That has been a theme for the Bulldogs D against Wofford for a number of years now, as the Terriers have scored at least 28 points against The Citadel in every game of the Kevin Higgins era.

— This is possibly the best team Wofford has ever had, which is one reason I wasn’t expecting The Citadel to win on Saturday.  However, I wasn’t expecting a walkover, either, and I was really disappointed by the outcome.  A lot of other alums/fans are just plain angry about the way the series with Wofford has gone in recent years, and you know what?   They have every right to be upset.  There is no excuse.

Something to think about:  there are only 11 seniors listed on Wofford’s entire roster. Eight of them are on the two-deep (The Citadel had nine seniors on the two-deep released for the game against Wofford).  Now, Wofford does not list redshirt juniors as seniors, but as juniors (including Eric Breitenstein), but the fact is that a lot of the Terriers will be back next season.

They probably won’t be as good in 2012.  The eight seniors on the two-deep include starting quarterback Mitch Allen and all three starting defensive linemen (one of whom, Ameet Pall, is Wofford’s best player).  The Terriers will continue to run their stuff on offense and defense, however, and will probably run it well.

— I felt badly for Cass Couey, who had an excellent game punting the ball, but whose efforts were almost completely wasted.  The punt that was returned for a TD was outstanding, with his coverage unit having plenty of time to get to the returner; they just didn’t get the job done.  Then he boomed a magnificent 66-yarder to the Wofford one-yard line — but the Terriers promptly went right down the field and scored.

— For Military Appreciation Day, the Bulldogs made yet another helmet change, although this one was more subtle and did not involve the logo, but rather the stripe. You can see the change in this photo of Ben Dupree:  Link

It’s a “digital camo” stripe, to match the “C” logo on the helmet.  My verdict:  an interesting idea that did not work.  It looked from some vantage points like a regular stripe decal that had been partially scraped off.

Before I get to Appalachian State, some SoCon stats…

— The Bulldogs are in last place in the league in a number of different offensive categories, including third-down conversion rate, fourth-down conversion rate, scoring, total offense, first downs, pass efficiency offense, and red zone offense (although the last one is a touch misleading; I would rate The Citadel’s red zone O ahead of Samford’s, based on TD/FG ratio).

I included pass efficiency and not passing offense in that list, because it’s not surprising The Citadel would be last in total passing, given the triple option.  Wofford is next-to-last in that category — but the Terriers are third in the league in pass efficiency.  When it does pass the ball, Wofford tends to make it count.

Defensively, the Bulldogs are solid statistically across the board, with the exception of defensive pass efficiency, which is a little puzzling.

The Citadel is also last in the league in both kickoff coverage and kickoff returns.  The Bulldogs really need to pick it up in those areas.  To me, the returners have seemed a little too tentative when moving upfield after receiving kicks.

In the SoCon media teleconference, Mountaineers coach Jerry Moore described his quarterback, DeAndre Presley, as “very questionable” for the game this Saturday after suffering an injury to his throwing shoulder against Wofford two weekends ago (Appy had a bye last week).  However, there is a chance he could play.

Not everyone remembers this, but Presley was questionable for the game against The Citadel last year, too.  He started and threw five touchdown passes in three quarters of action.

I’m guessing Presley plays this Saturday, too.

— In that teleconference, Moore was clearly annoyed by his team’s play this season, and seemed (at least to me) overly upset about the Mountaineers’ big loss to Virginia Tech in the season opener.  I realize that Appy as a program thinks it can be competitive against any team, even a traditional FBS power (and of course, the Hokies had lost the year before to James Madison, so it wasn’t exactly the impossible dream).  I was struck by how much the loss seemed to bother the veteran coach, though.

— Appalachian State starts two  freshmen on the offensive line (the center and left tackle), which may explain in part its sluggish offensive numbers (just two offensive touchdowns in its last two games).  On the other hand, there is still plenty of experienced talent on the offense, including Presley, the dangerous running back/returner Travaris Cadet, and the aptly named Brian Quick.

Fans of The Citadel may remember Quick catching a 74-yard TD pass late in the contest at Johnson Hagood two years ago, which tied a game the Mountaineers would eventually win in overtime.  That wasn’t unusual for Quick, who is the FCS active leader in reception yardage and yards per reception.

On defense, the Mountaineers are led by nosetackle Dan Wylie.  The regular starting defensive ends for Appy are “true” freshmen.  Appalachian State has a bevy of experienced linebackers and defensive backs, including Jeremy Kimbrough, who was suspended for the Wofford game after some hijinks in the Mountaineers’ win over Chattanooga.

Appalachian State’s front seven is big; the three starters on the d-line average 287 lbs. per man, and the linebackers are a solid 224 lbs. on average.

Last year, of course, the Bulldogs did not complete a pass against the Appy defense (0-6).

Placekicker/punter Sam Martin is usually reliable, although he had a tough afternoon against Wofford, missing all three of his field goal attempts (two of which were 33-yarders).

I don’t know what’s going to happen on Saturday.  I am expecting, however, a better performance from the Bulldogs than I saw against Wofford.  Not a better effort, as I don’t question last week’s effort.  I would also like to see The Citadel break its first-quarter offensive duck.  It’s time for Triple O’Higgins to get off to a quick start.

I’ll be in attendance on Saturday, along with a lot of proud parents, and a bunch of seniors with shiny new rings.  Good for them.  I must admit I treasure my diploma a bit more than my ring, but I understand the importance of that band of gold.

Speaking of diplomas…is The Citadel going to continue handing out sheepskin?  I certainly hope so.

Go Dogs!

2011 Football, Game 4: The Citadel vs. Chattanooga

The Citadel at Chattanooga, to be played at Finley Stadium, with kickoff at 6:05 pm ET on Saturday, October 1.  The game will not be televised.  The game can be heard on radio via The Citadel Sports Network, with “Voice of the Bulldogs” Danny Reed calling the action alongside analyst Walt Nadzak.  Bulldog Insider will also provide free audio; the only video available for this game is being provided by Chattanooga as part of a subscription service.

This post will serve as a combination review of the Elon game and preview of the Chattanooga contest.  I’m combining them because A) I’ve been a little busy, and B) I’m not sure I have enough to say about the two games to justify separate posts.

I’ll have to do the same thing next week, because I definitely won’t have the chance to write a review of the UTC game, as I will be travelling.  I won’t even be able to listen to Danny Reed and Walt Nadzak call the game on the radio.

That’s what I did for the Elon game, as I had another obligation.  As a result I found myself listening to Reed and Nadzak as I drove through a series of thunderstorms (one would pop up about every five minutes; it was ridiculous) while trying to navigate I-26 on a football Saturday.  Between the rain and the Gamecock fans heading to Columbia (some of whom drove about as well as Stephen Garcia threw the ball that night), it was a bit of an adventure.

I concentrated on Reed’s call, though, and he did a solid job informing his listeners about the game.  I also learned he likes to call running backs “sidecars”.

I did go back and look at some of the game later, courtesy of Elon’s video recording, which came in handy.  It helped flesh out some of the observations that follow, though it’s not the same thing as seeing the game “live”, either in person or via an internet stream.

I want to talk about play-calling for a moment.  Specifically, I’m going to write about two play calls in the first quarter.  Now, I don’t pretend to be any kind of coach; as I have said numerous times before, I’m just a dude with a computer.  It’s obviously not an easy task to coordinate an offense or defense, or call plays and formations.  There was a good article on this subject in The Post and Courier last week that featured Clemson defensive coordinator Kevin Steele.  It was quite illuminating (I have to say part of Steele’s routine struck me as overkill, but what do I know).

Anyway…

— On the first series of the game, the Bulldogs had second and eight from their own 31-yard line.  The Citadel ran an end-around receiver pass, with wideout Luke Caldwell’s toss to Kevin Hardy falling incomplete.  The play did not appear to fool the Elon defense.

I’m not sure that’s a good play to run at the beginning of the game, when you’re trying to establish an offensive rhythm.  Having said that, a variation of that play helped The Citadel win the game against Samford last year (and worked perfectly in one of the pre-season scrimmages).

It didn’t matter much, because on the next play Ben Dupree reversed field and scampered for 36 yards, extending the drive.  That would eventually lead to the play call that really bothered me.

— The Bulldogs had third-and-goal on the Elon three-yard line.  Dupree got the snap, took a quick drop, and threw a slant pass in the general direction of Domonic Jones. The pass was not accurate, but would not have been completed even if it had been.  It was well defended.

1) The team is on the three-yard line, with two downs to score, running the triple option.  Even if the Bulldogs don’t score on third down, the opportunity is there to go for it on 4th down if The Citadel picks up a yard or two.  That’s what the offense is all about.

2) Okay, so the coaches want to mix things up with a pass — but why on third down? That’s the one down Elon might have expected a pass play.  In that sequence, I think throwing the ball on first or second down is the better plan.

3) Also, the pass itself included no play-action.

4) Jones is 6’5″.  Maybe a fade might have been a better idea than a slant.

A lot of people probably concentrated on the short field goal that was missed following that play, but to me the real missed opportunity occurred one or two plays earlier.

Speaking of the kicking game, I am on record as saying I don’t blame the kickers. One thing that anyone following The Citadel knows is that the placekicking has been inconsistent for several years.  That’s not about the kickers, the holders, or the snappers.  That’s coaching.  Either the players need to be coached better, or the coaches need to find better players.

The missed field goals are frustrating, but almost as problematic is the kick return unit, which is averaging less than 20 yards per return.  Against Elon, the Bulldogs started at their own 29-, 10-, 27-, and 30-yard lines after Phoenix kickoffs.  That needs to improve.

I thought Elon coach Jason Swepson inadvertently assisted The Citadel on Saturday with a couple of curious decisions.  After an Aaron Mellette touchdown reception gave Elon a 12-7 lead with 12:55 remaining in the third quarter, Swepson elected to go for two points, despite the fact that almost 28 minutes remained in the game.  The Phoenix didn’t make the conversion, which struck me as justice served, because nobody should start chasing points with so much time left in a game.

After a Bulldog fumble, Elon had the ball at The Citadel 38-yard line with 2:32 remaining in the fourth quarter.  After a Phoenix first down moved the ball to the 27-yard line, Elon ran the ball (and the clock) to set up a 44-yard field goal attempt, which was missed.  In my opinion, the Phoenix settled too quickly for the long FG try.

After The Citadel’s game notes indicated the Bulldogs were going to wear white jerseys and white pants against Elon, The Citadel broke out navy pants instead.  The Bulldogs wore that combo once last season, versus Wofford.  The Bulldogs lost that game 35-0.  In the two white jerseys/navy pants games, five different Bulldog passers have combined to go 3-14 for 21 yards, and the team has averaged just 7.5 points per game, which is actually worse than the 9.7 ppg the team has averaged in the ten SoCon games played since installing the triple option.

Maybe they should have worn the white pants…

I wrote this three years ago about Chattanooga’s football program, which was in the middle of a 1-11 campaign:

You know it’s been a bad season when the beat writer for the local paper notes that “punter Jeff Lloyd, who lost his starting job for three games, may be the Mocs’ most productive player.”

Later in the column he writes that Lloyd has been effective “when he has been able to get a punt off.”

UTC’s struggles have presented an opportunity for assorted anti-football advocates to step forward and call for the program’s elimination.  The loudest of these voices is a computer science professor at UTC named Joe Dumas.  From the link:

“This is a perfect time for UTC to get out of the football business for good and concentrate on academics while maintaining successful athletic programs like basketball, golf, tennis, etc.”

Well, Chattanooga didn’t drop the football program.  Instead, the school hired alumnus Russ Huesman to coach the team, and that proved to be a very good decision.  Huesman currently has a winning record in both league play (9-8) and overall (14-12), which is quite impressive when you consider the state of the program when he took over.

I did a little googling, but could not find any recent proclamations by Dr. Dumas on the subject of UTC football.  He is still at the school, but seems to be a bit more interested in politics right now, at least from what I could determine.  It is probable he still feels the football program should be eliminated, but it’s hard to make your voice heard on such matters when people are loudly celebrating victories.

Even though the Mocs lost a tough game last week at Appalachian State, you could make an argument that Chattanooga has been the most impressive SoCon team so far this season.  After a 40-7 loss to Nebraska in which the Mocs did not embarrass themselves, UTC reeled off consecutive non-conference FCS wins over Jacksonville State (38-17) and Eastern Kentucky (23-14), the latter a road victory.

Entering the game against Appy, Chattanooga had the most impressive early-season resume of any conference squad.  Against the Mountaineers, UTC did not allow an offensive touchdown, but two defensive TDs by App State did in the Mocs.

B.J. Coleman is in his third year as UTC’s starter after transferring from Tennessee, and is a major reason why the program is on the upswing.  Coleman has 48 career TD passes (against 26 interceptions).  I remember the game two years ago, when Coleman led a comeback victory over The Citadel by throwing 61 passes, somehow including no rushing attempts or sacks.

Coleman’s primary target is Joel Bradford, who was first-team all-SoCon last season and is well on his way to repeating that honor.  Bradford had 15 receptions for 162 yards in the win over Jacksonville State.

Chattanooga rushed for 212 yards against Jacksonville State, but only 32 yards at Appalachian State.  Interestingly, Huesman seemed more upset with his receivers’ blocking than that of his offensive line versus Appy.

On defense, UTC has been solid since the Nebraska game, particularly excelling on third down; its last three opponents as a group only converted 19% of the time in that situation.  Redshirt sophomore middle linebacker Wes Dothard has been the SoCon defensive player of the week for two of the last three weeks.  UTC’s strong linebacking corps also includes Ryan Consiglio, who had 13 tackles in the loss to Appalachian State, and all-name candidate Gunner Miller.

The defensive backfield is excellent, and includes 2010 SoCon freshman of the year Kadeem Wise (who had seven interceptions last season) along with veterans Chris Lewis-Harris and Jordan Tippet.

The Mocs will miss Nick Davison, as the defensive tackle is out for the season after an ACL injury.

Punter Mike Hammons is a three-year starter, but placekicker Nick Pollard is a freshman who has yet to make a field goal of longer than 30 yards.

The Citadel’s defense has been really good so far, to state the obvious.  I was really glad to see the excellent play in the red zone against Elon (after struggling in that department last season against the Phoenix), and the forced turnovers.  It was an outstanding effort from the entire unit.

In the last two years against Chattanooga, though, the D has A) let the quarterback throw the ball 61 times without being sacked, giving up a big lead in the process, and B) allowed 222 rushing yards in a game.

I don’t expect either of those things to occur on Saturday, but UTC’s offense will again pose a stiff challenge.  Obviously giving up around 30 points or so isn’t going to work for The Citadel, given the offensive issues.

At his news conference Monday, Higgins reaffirmed his belief in starter Ben Dupree, while leaving open the possibility of using backup Matt Thompson or even true freshman Aaron Miller.

“Possibly,” Higgins said when asked about using other QBs. “Ben has only started five games now, so there is still a learning curve. He obviously has to get better. Ben has to improve, but if we need to use Matt or Aaron, we will.”

The Citadel had plenty of less-than-stellar passing days last season where Dupree wasn’t involved, like the aforementioned 2-8 (11 yards, plus an interception) against Wofford, or the 0-6 performance versus Appalachian State, or the “3 for us, 3 for them” outing in the Georgia Southern debacle (3 completions, 3 interceptions), or last year’s game against UTC (2-8 for 25 yards and a pick).

I don’t think passing in and of itself would be enough to dislodge Dupree from the #1 QB spot.  If he is having trouble making the reads in the Triple O’Higgins, that would obviously be a different story.  I don’t think that’s what this is about, though.  It’s really about the passing component of the triple option in general not working, whether because of passing, blocking, receiving, play-calling, or all of the above.  Whatever it is, it’s clearly bigger than just one player.

I’ll find out sometime on Sunday how the game went.  I hope it’s worth the wait.

Go Dogs!

Game Review, 2011: Furman

Furman 16, The Citadel 6.

It wasn’t a terrible performance by the Bulldogs.  It just wasn’t good enough.  I wasn’t completely frustrated by the way things turned out, but I wasn’t overwhelmed with positive vibes either.

Links of interest:

Jeff Hartsell’s article on the game

Hartsell’s post-game notes

The Citadel’s release

Furman’s release

The Post and Courier‘s “photo gallery” of the game

Click on that last link to see photos of the Bulldogs wearing their “Big Red” jerseys.  I was disappointed with the decision to break out these uniforms for the game. This was supposed to be a special, unusual uniform set designed to commemorate the return of “Big Red” (the flag) to The Citadel.

I wrote about these uniforms last year when they were first worn, for Homecoming. What I said then:

I didn’t have a problem with breaking out the red jerseys for this game.  The original Big Red, of course, arrived on campus in March; its disappearance and rediscovery is an interesting tale.  Wearing red jerseys for the Homecoming following that development seemed reasonably appropriate (and a good way to push merchandise).

I’m not sure I would want to see them again, however.  I certainly don’t want the football team wearing red jerseys to become a yearly event.  I think doing that would make it much less special, and also detract from the school’s traditional colors for its sports teams.

Of course, it could be argued that the parade of different football uniform color combinations this season has already devalued the tradition of wearing light blue and white. In ten games, the Bulldogs have worn six different jersey/pant color combos, including four different looks for the six home games.

In fact, I think the fact The Citadel did not have a standard uniform combination this season made the red jerseys seem a little less unusual. Let’s face it, if the Bulldogs had lined up wearing silver or black, nobody would have been all that shocked, so the red jersey wasn’t that much of a departure.

I still feel that way.  If anything, I feel more strongly about it after seeing the game against Jacksonville, when the Bulldogs wore a new uniform that actually looked pretty good.  I am afraid that we are going to continue this multiple uniform combo deal throughout the season.  I also wouldn’t be all that surprised if someone in the department of athletics is trying to figure out how to justify wearing black or silver jerseys/pants/helmets.

I’ll get off my uniform soapbox for now, because I know folks are probably tired of the constant drumbeat about the unis (or at least tired of my constant drumbeat), but I want to make three more points:

— The Bulldogs wore the new helmet logo with this “Big Red” set, which made it look even weirder (and which was obviously inconsistent with the uniform as a whole).

— The game notes now actually feature a chart listing The Citadel’s uniform combinations for each contest.  While it is arguably sad that such a chart is necessary, I will give the media relations staff credit for it, because I think it’s a good idea.  The problem, of course, was that the notes for the Furman game listed the uniform combo as being “Citadel blue tops, white bottoms”.  I guess not everybody got the message.

— The light blue “side panels” on the red jerseys look even worse when compared to the no-panel look of last week’s jerseys.

I’m not going to rehash the game.  I’ll just make some observations, many of which are probably faulty…

— On The Citadel’s first drive to open the game, the Bulldogs threw two passes (both incomplete) in three plays and punted.  I know that the element of surprise is always a consideration, and that Triple O’Higgins probably features more passing than some other triple option offenses, but I would have liked to see the team try to establish an offensive rhythm early by sticking to the ground game.

— This game could have looked a lot like last year’s matchup in Greenville, when Furman scored a TD right out of the gate and the Bulldogs played from well behind for the entire day, but for a big play by Brandon McCladdie on third-and-goal from the Bulldogs 4-yard line.  Chris Forcier would have scored if McCladdie had not kept containment and made what amounted to an open-field tackle.  If The Citadel had come back and won the game, McCladdie’s play would have been huge.  It was still noteworthy.

— Furman’s coaches treated Forcier more like a freshman than a senior in terms of play-calling.  I’m not sure what to make of that.

— Jerodis Williams is a tough back.  Very impressive.  I also thought Paladins linebacker Kadarron Anderson had a good game.

— Things that are still a work in progress:  Ben Dupree’s passing, and the Bulldogs’ o-line play in general.  Both can improve, though.  I’ll take some overthrows and missed blocks now for pinpoint passing and solid line play later.

— Dupree is going to frustrate a lot of SoCon opponents with his ability to turn broken plays into positive yardage.

— On The Citadel’s sixth drive of the game, the Bulldogs chewed up just over seven minutes of possession, eventually facing a 4th-and-8 on the Paladins 35-yard line. The Citadel took a delay of game penalty and then punted.  The punt went into the end zone for a touchback, so the net was 20 yards (a de facto 15-yard net, really, considering the penalty).

I think Kevin Higgins, if he had to do it all over again, would have gone for it.  I certainly believe he should have.  The Bulldogs trailed 13-6 at the time, and there were four minutes remaining in the third quarter.

In that situation, if a field goal attempt isn’t a realistic option, going for it is the right move.  In fact, I think it’s the right move in most situations, but you definitely have to go for it in a game when the possessions are limited.  The Citadel only had eight possessions in the entire contest (and one of those was a one-play drive to end the first half, so the Bulldogs in effect only got the ball seven times).

You simply aren’t going to get that many opportunities to make a play in your opponents’ territory.  Higgins did make the correct decision on The Citadel’s next possession, however, going for it on 4th-and-6 at the Furman 49.  It didn’t work out, but it was the right call.

— The tailgaters were out in force on Saturday.  Larry Leckonby probably spends a fair amount of time wondering how to get most of the people tailgating in the lots surrounding the stadium to actually enter the stadium.  It’s a problem.

Now The Citadel has a week off before its first road game of the season, a trip to Elon. The Phoenix are playing this weekend, as they travel to Durham to face North Carolina Central.  Elon is 1-1, with a loss to Vanderbilt and a victory over Concord.

I’ll close with some photos.  My usual lack of skill in picture-taking was combined on Saturday with a dying battery in my camera, so I didn’t take quite as many as usual.  I did get a few off-field shots of note, though, including the 1961 SoCon championship trophy and the mascot for Bojangles, apparently named “Bo” (what a surprise).

Speaking of mascots, I got a picture of General too, relaxing on a block of ice covered by a blanket.  General is a very cool dog (quite literally on Saturday, despite the late-afternoon heat).  He and his buddy Boo made a lot of new friends, including quite a few Cub Scouts.  I also appreciated Boo’s handler moving the SoCon trophy around so I could get a half-decent shot of it.  Many thanks.