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Schedule analysis: Which teams will The Citadel’s opponents face before playing the Bulldogs? What about afterwards? Sandwich games? Look-aheads?

Posted on August 8, 2025 by Sandlapper Spike

Sometimes, the schedule works in your favor, and sometimes it doesn’t. For this post, I’m going to review the games teams play the week before facing The Citadel…and what they have lined up the following week…and well, a few other games along the way.

Are there “look ahead” games? What about “sandwich” games? Does anyone have a bye week before playing the Bulldogs?

Let’s check it out.

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August 30 — North Dakota State at The Citadel, noon ET

It is the season opener for both teams, so there are obviously no games the week before for either squad. In last year’s finale, The Citadel rolled up 288 yards rushing against ACC champ Clemson, while North Dakota State won its final contest of the season by three points.

The week after facing The Citadel, NDSU is on the road again, heading to Nashville to take on Tennessee State. The Tigers made the playoffs last year, but have since lost head coach Eddie George (who took the Bowling Green job in the spring) and a sizable chunk of the postseason roster. At least one statistics maven has asserted that TSU ranks last in returning production among all FCS teams.

NDSU debuts at home on September 13 against Southeast Missouri State, then has a bye before beginning MVFC play on September 27 with a Homecoming matchup versus South Dakota (which defeated the Bison last year).

September 6 — The Citadel at Samford, 3:30 pm ET

Samford hosts West Georgia on Thursday, August 28, so SU will get two extra days of preparation before facing The Citadel in the league opener for both teams (and has the added benefit of staying at home). Don’t expect Samford to look past West Georgia, however, as the Wolves upset the Birmingham Bulldogs last season. That was actually WGU’s first game as an FCS team.

After playing The Citadel, Samford will travel to Waco for a matchup against Baylor and its highly regarded quarterback, Sawyer Robertson. That will be a very difficult road opener, and is the first of two straight games away from home for SU, which faces Western Carolina in Cullowhee on September 20.

Samford’s final road game of the year, by the way, is also against a Power 4 opponent from the state of Texas, as SU plays at Texas A&M on November 22.

September 13 — The Citadel at Gardner-Webb, 7:00 pm ET

Gardner-Webb has one of the tougher stretches to begin the year in all of FCS.

G-W opens at Western Carolina, which is ranked 18th in the Stats Perform Top 25 Preseason Poll. The Runnin’ Bulldogs then travel to Atlanta to face Georgia Tech, which was picked 4th in the ACC preseason poll.

That is the game Gardner-Webb will play before its matchup with The Citadel, and will be a stern test, though it is worth noting that the Yellow Jackets have a recent history of struggling against FCS opponents nicknamed Bulldogs.

The week after hosting The Citadel, Gardner-Webb has a second FBS game, making the trip up north to tangle with defending MAC champion Ohio.

After a bye week, G-W finally begins conference play on October 4 with a home game versus Charleston Southern. I’m mentioning this mostly because that game has recently been dubbed the “BBQ Bowl“:

The Runnin’ Bulldogs and the Buccaneers will compete annually for bragging rights and the North-South BBQ Trophy, which features a hefty hog adorned with a placard to engrave each year’s winning team and score.

Most importantly, the losing team will be tasked with supplying a barbecue feast to the winning side — North Carolina-style (Western BBQ, of course) or South Carolina-style, as chosen by the victors.

Presumably, the winning team will choose South Carolina-style BBQ, regardless of which squad wins the game.

September 20 — Mercer at The Citadel, 2:00 pm ET (Parents’ Weekend)

Mercer, the preseason SoCon favorite, has a fairly weird start to the season. The Bears will face UC Davis of the Big Sky in Week 0 (on August 23), playing in the FCS Kickoff game at the Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama. Both teams are ranked in the Stats Perform preseason poll (UC Davis is 8th, Mercer 11th). That game will be televised on ESPN at 7:00 pm ET, which won’t be bad at all in terms of exposure.

The following week, Mercer hosts Presbyterian. The Bears then have a bye week before beginning league play with a home game versus Wofford. The following week, Mercer travels to Charleston to face the Bulldogs.

After the game against The Citadel, Mercer stays on the road to play East Tennessee State before returning to Macon to meet Samford. Then, on October 11, Mercer plays Princeton in New Jersey, trying to become the second SoCon team to win at Powers Field. MU has a second bye after that game (getting an extra bye as a result of playing on Week 0).

September 27 — The Citadel at Chattanooga, 6:00 pm ET

Chattanooga has a tough schedule, kind of low-key in a way, but demanding nonetheless. The Mocs open the season at Memphis, and then play another road game at Tennessee Tech. The Golden Eagles won 7 games last year, including their last five, and are ranked #21 in the Stats Perform preseason poll.

After its home opener against Stetson, which should be a bit of a breather (but you never know), Chattanooga has another road game against a team ranked in the preseason poll, Tarleton State (#10). If you are unfamiliar with Tarleton State, don’t be too upset, as the Texans have only been in FCS since 2020. Despite just arriving in Division I, however, TSU’s power brokers already have designs on a spot in FBS.

Chattanooga hosts The Citadel the week following its game at Tarleton State. The Mocs then play at VMI, facing military schools in consecutive weeks, before a bye week that will probably be much-needed.

October 4 — Bye Week for The Citadel

The Citadel is the only SoCon team not playing on October 4.

Without the Bulldogs in the mix, what are your viewing options? It is hard to imagine watching football if The Citadel isn’t involved, so I would recommend making vacation plans of some kind, perhaps an overseas trip.

If you really insist on watching some pigskin, though, here is a list of some of the FBS games which will be played on October 4:

Miami (FL) at Florida State
Clemson at North Carolina
Vanderbilt at Alabama
Texas at Florida
Wisconsin at Michigan
Minnesota at Ohio State
Kansas State at Baylor
Texas Tech at Houston
Air Force at Navy
Boise State at Notre Dame

Among the teams also on a bye for the week: South Carolina, Auburn, LSU, Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi, Tennessee, Georgia Tech, Oregon, Southern California, Iowa, Arizona State, and Utah.

So yes, October 4 is a fairly popular bye week.

October 11 — Valdosta State at The Citadel, 2:00 pm ET (Hall of Fame Weekend/Military Appreciation Day)

I’m still not sure why The Citadel decided to schedule a non-conference game against last year’s Division II national runner-up; it just seems to me that if another home game was desired (laudable) and only non-D1 options were on the table (okay, whatever), settling on a mid-season game against a program as historically successful as the Blazers wasn’t really the way to go.

That was under the previous athletics administration, to be sure.

At any rate, Valdosta State (which has a new coach and a revamped roster) will face The Citadel after playing two straight home games. Following a bye week, VSU hosts UNC Pembroke on September 27, and then Lenoir-Rhyne the week before playing the Bulldogs. The Blazers shouldn’t be looking past either of those squads, particularly Lenoir-Rhyne, which won 10 games last season and made it to the second round of the D-2 playoffs.

That said, neither of those games is a conference matchup, as VSU hardly has any conference matchups. Due to a mass exodus of schools after last season, the Gulf South Conference only has four football-playing members for the 2025 campaign. As a result, Valdosta State won’t play a league contest until November 1 against West Alabama — its first of just three conference games.

Following its game against The Citadel, VSU will have another bye week before hosting North Greenville for Homecoming, its seventh (and final) non-conference matchup of the season.

October 18 — Western Carolina at The Citadel, 2:00 pm ET

I mentioned earlier that Western Carolina opens its season by hosting Gardner-Webb. The next week, WCU plays at Wake Forest in one of the more interesting FCS-over-FBS possibilities on the September slate.

The Catamounts also have non-conference games in September against Elon (at home) and Campbell (on the road).

Prior to its matchup at The Citadel, Western Carolina hosts Furman. In fact, WCU will play all three South Carolina-based SoCon schools in consecutive weeks, as the Catamounts are at Wofford the week before facing the Paladins.

Following the game versus the Bulldogs, WCU has a bye week, and then finishes the regular-season campaign with contests against Chattanooga, Mercer, East Tennessee State, and VMI (the first and last of those being road games).

October 25 — The Citadel at Furman, 2:00 pm ET

This matchup will be Furman’s Homecoming game, though FU will still have two home contests remaining after the contest. The Paladins are at Wofford the week before facing The Citadel, and host Mercer the week afterwards.

Furman then travels to Chattanooga before playing its final game at Paladin Stadium, this time against VMI. The Paladins finish the regular season at Clemson.

Furman’s bye week this year is rather early (September 20), so it will play nine straight weeks to close the campaign — eight consecutive league contests before the finale in Death Valley.

The Paladins have three non-conference games besides the Clemson matchup, and they are also Furman’s first three contests of the season. FU has home games versus William & Mary and Presbyterian and a road trip to play Campbell.

November 1 — VMI at The Citadel, 2:00 pm ET (Military Classic of the South)

The Keydets open the season with all four of their non-conference games, three of which are on the road (Navy, Bucknell, and Richmond). VMI’s one non-league home contest is a matchup with Ferrum (a D2 school). It then enjoys a bye week on September 27 before beginning SoCon action.

VMI’s game against The Citadel is the second of two straight road contests for the Keydets. The week before playing the Bulldogs, VMI travels to Mercer.

The following week is Military Appreciation Day in Lexington, Virginia, and the Keydets are hosting Wofford. They will then play at Furman, another instance of a team playing three consecutive matchups against the SoCon’s Palmetto State trio.

VMI will then conclude regular-season play with a home game versus Western Carolina.

November 8 — The Citadel at Mississippi, 1:00 pm ET

As mentioned above, Mississippi has a bye week on October 4, just like The Citadel.

Mississippi’s other three non-conference games are against Georgia State (the season opener), Tulane, and Washington State. All of those are also in Oxford. Mississippi thus has eight home games this season, including three of its last four regular-season contests.

Oh, but that closing stretch. The Citadel is a “sandwich” game for the Rebels, with Mississippi hosting South Carolina the week before and Florida the week afterwards. Following the game against the Gators, the Rebels have another bye week before facing Mississippi State in Starkville in the Egg Bowl.

Prior to that home game versus the Gamecocks, Mississippi has two road games — at Georgia and at Oklahoma.

November 15 — Wofford at The Citadel, 2:00 pm ET (Homecoming)

Wofford opens the season in Orangeburg against South Carolina State, and then hosts Richmond. After beginning SoCon play the following week at Mercer, the Terriers make the journey to Blacksburg to face Virginia Tech (the Mike Young Invitational).

All of Wofford’s games after its September 27 bye week are league affairs except one, an October 11 matchup against Michael Vick’s Norfolk State squad (kind of a Virginia Tech theme here). That game is Homecoming for the Terriers.

Before facing The Citadel, Wofford travels to VMI, so the Terriers get the military schools back-to-back. After playing the Bulldogs, Wofford finishes the regular season with a home game versus Chattanooga.

November 22 — The Citadel at East Tennessee State, 1:00 pm ET

The Buccaneers start the season with four non-conference games, hosting Murray State in the opener before making the trek to Knoxville to do battle with Tennessee. ETSU then plays at West Georgia before a home game versus Elon.

East Tennessee State has a late bye week, not taking a break until November 1; the week before, it has a Homecoming game versus Wofford.

ETSU then finishes the regular season with two road games against Samford and Western Carolina before hosting The Citadel.

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There you have it. None of The Citadel’s opponents has a bye week before playing The Citadel, though Samford does have those aforementioned two extra days of prep because its opener is on a Thursday.

On the other side of the equation, the Bulldogs’ one “rest” advantage is against a non-conference opponent, so none of its SoCon competitors are affected.

Two of The Citadel’s opponents have a bye week after playing the Bulldogs — Valdosta State and Western Carolina.

The Citadel has two home games against teams that play a road game before facing the Bulldogs at Johnson Hagood Stadium — VMI and Wofford.

The Bulldogs face two squads that play at home before also hosting The Citadel — Samford and Mississippi.

Basically, there are no real scheduling breaks in either direction. It is just a very tough slate.

Filed under: Football, The Citadel | Tagged: Chattanooga, East Tennessee State, Furman, Gardner-Webb, Mercer, Mississippi, North Dakota State, Samford, SoCon, Valdosta State, VMI, Western Carolina, Wofford | Leave a comment »

A short statistical look at North Dakota State’s 2024 football campaign

Posted on August 3, 2025 by Sandlapper Spike

Previous posts this summer:

Shakogami!

Football attendance review for The Citadel, SoCon, and FCS in general

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Football practice at The Citadel has begun. It is a little warm out there.

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This stats review is not really meant to be extensive. I just wanted to create a profile, and then comment on a few aspects of it. I am reasonably confident in the accuracy of the statistics; as always, please blame the NCAA for any errors.

Okay, let’s look at this thing:

	North Dakota State	NDSU Opponents
Points per game	38.1	18.6
Points per possession	3.836	1.817
Starting Field Position Average	32.22	26.74
Long scrimmage plays (15+ yard reception/10+ yard rush)	169 (10.6 per game)	138 (8.6 per game)
Total Turnovers	6 (5 INT, 1 lost fumble)	25 (11 INT, 14 recovered fumbles)
Expected total turnovers	13.36	23.38
Points off turnovers	97	10
Possessions (kneel-downs excluded)	159 (9.94 per game)	164 (10.25 per game)
Offensive Plays	1044 (65.3 per game)	936 (58.5 per game)
Offensive rush play % (sack-adjusted)	60.73%	49.89%
Yards/rush (sack-adjusted)	5.07	4.79
Yards/pass attempt (sack-adjusted)	8.46	6.19
Pass completion percentage	71.79%	61.38%
Yards/play	6.40	5.49
3rd down conversions	54.46% (110-202)	43.28% (87-201)
4th down conversions	68.18% (15-22)	34.78% (8-23)
Red Zone TD%	77.3% (58-75)	59.5% (25-42)
Punt return average	11.84 (1 TD)	11.73 (0 TDs)
Net punting	36.77 yards (2 blocked)	35.81 yards (1 blocked)
Kickoff return average	25.91 yards (2 TDs)	21.54 yards (0 TDs)
Kickoff touchback percentage	63.06%	29.03%
Field goals	15 for 19, long of 54	13 for 18, long of 50
Points after touchdowns	77 for 77 PAT (1-4 going for 2)	31 for 32 PAT (3-5 going for 2)
Time of possession per game	33:04	26:56
TOP/offensive play	30.41 sec	27.62 sec
Penalties per game	5.75 (46.75 yards)	5.56 (50.69 yards)
Sacks (defense)	34 for 247 yards	20 for 122 yards
Defensive forced fumbles	19	3
Defensive 3-and-outs+	51 (31.1% of all possessions)	25 (15.7% of all possessions)

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It is easy to see how North Dakota State finished 14-2, with one loss by a TD at Colorado and the other a one-point setback in the regular-season finale at South Dakota. A few of the statistical categories are such outliers (in an impressive way) that they merit further discussion.

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We have to start with the turnovers. NDSU only committed six turnovers in 16 games last season, which is remarkable. Primarily because of that incredible ability to hold onto the football, the Bison excelled in other areas as well.

For example, take the field position advantage. Did it help to have a kicker who routinely produced touchbacks on kickoffs? Yes. Was the defense good enough to tilt the field as well? Yes (and we’ll get to that in more detail). However, almost never turning the ball over meant that NDSU rarely put its defense in a bad spot.

Opponents had 164 possessions against the Bison last year. Only eight of those started in NDSU territory. Eight! And three of those came during a bizarre stretch at Murray State, when the Bison punt unit momentarily became unglued (suffering NDSU’s only two blocked kicks of the entire season, plus another misplay). North Dakota State led 52-3 at the time, so it didn’t matter.

There was only one situation last year in which the NDSU defense faced a critical “must stop” drive by an opponent that began in Bison territory. That came in North Dakota State’s playoff opener against a feisty Abilene Christian squad. The Wildcats jumped out to a 14-3 lead at the Fargodome, and then suddenly had the ball on the NDSU 13-yard line after an interception.

North Dakota State’s D responded, holding ACU to one yard on three plays, leading to a field goal. You can almost guess what happened next. NDSU returned the ensuing kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown, and eventually scored the game’s next 31 points. Momentum, baby.

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I will say that North Dakota State was a bit fortunate with turnover luck. NDSU actually fumbled ten times last season (which isn’t bad), but somehow only lost one of those fumbles. Part of that might have been due to the nature of the fumbles; opponents actually forced just three of them. Conversely, the Bison defense forced 19 fumbles (out of 23 total by opponents), recovering 14.

NDSU’s offense also was a little fortuitous when it came to interceptions, as passes defensed numbers suggest that the Bison probably should have suffered about three more picks. However, that didn’t happen, and on the field that is what counts.

In general NDSU’s passing attack was stellar, leading the nation in offensive pass efficiency. That included finishing second in FCS in completion percentage and in total TD passes; the Bison also averaged 12.81 yards per reception.

It doesn’t come as a surprise that between the efficient passing and a ground game that averaged over five yards per carry (sack-adjusted), NDSU was third nationally in 3rd-down conversion rate and eighth overall in 4th-down conversion rate. Consequently, the Bison also finished fifth in FCS in time of possession per game (with 36 of its 159 drives lasting five minutes or longer).

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I mentioned above that North Dakota State’s defense recovered 14 fumbles (tied for third overall in FCS). The Bison also intercepted 11 passes. Both are solid totals (even in 16 games).

There is another aspect to this worth mentioning. North Dakota State forced a three-and-out on 35 opponent possessions in 2024. You will notice on the table, though, that for the category ‘Defensive 3-and-outs +’, I have the number at 51.

The difference is the “+” part of the equation. Besides the standard three-and-outs, NDSU actually forced a turnover on the first three plays of an opponent’s drive 12 times. There were also four instances when an opponent turned the ball over on downs after just four plays of a possession.

That is what your garden-variety football TV analyst calls “sudden change”, and the Bison profited hugely in those situations.

While opponents only received the ball on the NDSU side of the field to start a drive eight times last season, North Dakota State’s offense began possessions in enemy territory 24 times — and that doesn’t even account for two pick-sixes by the Bison defense, both of which came within the first three plays of an opposing drive.

For the season, NDSU scored 97 points off turnovers; its opponents, just 10.

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So, to sum up: North Dakota State was pretty good last year. There is a decent chance NDSU will be pretty good this season, too.

Less than four weeks to go…

Filed under: Football, The Citadel | Tagged: Abilene Christian, Colorado, FCS, Murray State, North Dakota State, South Dakota, The Citadel | Leave a comment »

The Citadel Football 2023: the season moves into October

Posted on October 4, 2023 by Sandlapper Spike

The Citadel at Furman, to be played at Paladin Stadium in Greenville, South Carolina, with kickoff at 2:00 pm ET on October 7, 2023.

The game will be streamed on ESPN+. Brock Bowling will handle play-by-play, while Cole Neely supplies the analysis. The sideline reporter is Anna Witte.

The contest can be heard on radio via The Citadel Sports Network. WQNT-1450 AM [audio link], originating in Charleston, will be the flagship station. Other stations carrying the game include WQXL in Columbia (100.7 FM/1470 AM) and WDXY in Sumter (105.9 FM/1240 AM).

Brian Giffin will call the action alongside analyst Lee Glaze.

“Live Stats” for the game

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Links of interest:

– SoCon weekly release

– Furman game notes

– The Citadel game notes

– Maurice Drayton’s Monday press conference

– Season statistics for The Citadel (five games)

– Box score for Western Carolina-The Citadel

– Furman Football Weekly with Clay Hendrix

– Furman builds program the “old-fashioned way”

– Box score for Tennessee Tech-Furman (Furman won, 45-10)

– Box score for Furman-South Carolina (Furman lost, 47-21)

– Box score for Furman-Kennesaw State (a road win for the Paladins, 31-28)

– Box score for Mercer-Furman (Furman won, 38-14)

– Season statistics for Furman (four games)

– The New York Knicks are practicing at McAlister Field House; Julius Randle can’t wait to eat at Halls Chophouse

– Speaking of hoops, The Citadel released its 2023-2024 schedule

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Roster review:

– Of the 110 players on The Citadel’s online roster, 58 are from South Carolina. Other states represented: Florida (14 players), Georgia (11), North Carolina (11), Virginia (5), Alabama (2), Ohio (2), New York (2), Texas (2), and one each from Maryland, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

– Furman has 129 players on its online roster. Of those, 29 are from Georgia. Other states represented: Tennessee (19 players), North Carolina (18), Florida (17), Virginia (10), Texas (9), South Carolina (7), Ohio (4), Alabama (3), California (2), Kentucky (2), and one each from Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania.

Offensive lineman Gerrik Vollmer is originally from Hamburg, Germany, where he played club football. He also played high school football in West Virginia and Connecticut before beginning his college career at Virginia (with a subsequent season at Old Dominion).

– The seven Palmetto State players on the Paladins’ squad attended six different high schools (one was home schooled). The six South Carolina high schools represented on Furman’s roster are Brookland-Cayce, Byrnes, Dutch Fork, Gaffney, St. Joseph’s, and Trinity Collegiate.

There has been occasional discussion in certain quarters about the makeup of Furman’s roster. I’m not going to get into that here, but it is striking to see an in-state school with more players on its squad from Texas than from South Carolina.

– Ten members of the Paladins’ roster originally began their respective college careers at other four-year institutions. Among those schools from which players have matriculated to Furman: Colorado State, East Tennessee State, James Madison, Lehigh, Michigan State, Northern Colorado, and Presbyterian.

Eight of those ten transfers are graduate students.

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Odds and ends:

– The weather forecast for Saturday in Greenville, per the National Weather Service, mostly sunny, with a projected high of 73°. The low temperature that evening is 46°.

– As I’ve mentioned in other posts, for this season FCS lines and odds posted prior to Saturday have been hard to come by.

– Massey Ratings: Furman is ranked 13th in FCS, a drop of one spot from last week (when the Paladins were idle). The Citadel is 113th (a 4-place decline).

Massey projects Furman to win the game by a predicted score of 41-10. The Citadel is given a 2% chance of winning.

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Meanwhile, SP+ ranks Furman 11th (19th on offense, 21st on defense) and The Citadel 126th (127th on offense, 113th on D).

A selected list of SP+ FCS rankings entering Week 6 (I have to say there were some weird moves this week):

South Dakota State (1st)
Montana State (2nd)
North Dakota State (3rd) [lost in Fargo to South Dakota (on Homecoming!) but only dropped one spot]
William and Mary (8th)
Austin Peay (12th) [a 25-spot jump after beating Lindenwood (?!)]
Chattanooga (27th) [fell 11 spots after a win at Wofford]
Campbell (34th)
Jackson State (36th)
Eastern Kentucky (37th) [up 15 places after beating North Alabama]
Western Carolina (45th) [a four-spot decline despite a 35-point road victory]
Mercer (47th)
Samford (54th)
Kennesaw State (56th)
Davidson (64th)
East Tennessee State (79th)
Charleston Southern (85th)
South Carolina State (94th)
Wofford (98th)
Bucknell (109th)
VMI (112th) [fell 20 places after losing to Mercer, which seems harsh]
Morehead State (124th)
Presbyterian (127th)
Wagner (128th and last)

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In other FCS ratings systems, The Citadel ranks 127th in the Congrove Computer Rankings (a drop of 5 spots), 127th in the Laz Index (a decline of 2 places), and 120th in the DCI (unchanged from last week).

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– Games involving SoCon teams this week [projected score per SP+ in brackets]:

Saturday at 1:30 pm ET: Samford at Wofford [Samford 30.8, Wofford 19.0]
Saturday at 2:00 pm ET: The Citadel at Furman [Furman 45.7, The Citadel 3.4]
Saturday at 3:30 pm ET: Mercer at East Tennessee State [Mercer 32.4, ETSU 24.9]
Saturday at 6:00 pm ET: Western Carolina at Chattanooga [UTC 30.4, WCU 23.4]

VMI is off this week, the second consecutive week in which The Citadel’s next opponent has a bye before playing the Bulldogs.

– Among Furman’s notable alumni: Boston Pops conductor Keith Lockhart, physicist Charles Townes, and journalist Eleanor Beardsley.

– The Citadel has an all-time record of 9-6-1 for games played on October 7. The Bulldogs are 3-3-1 on the road on that date, and are 4-5 in league play.

Somewhat surprisingly, despite the fact that Furman and The Citadel have met 55 previous times in the month of October, Saturday will mark the first time the game has been played on October 7.

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Maurice Drayton, when asked about putting more defensive pressure on the quarterback (specifically, blitzing):

Sometimes in football you have to pick your poison…if you look at what [defensive coordinator Raleigh] Jackson’s defenses have done in the past, he is a ‘pressure’ guy — but this is what we need to understand, too. Some of the things we are running into here in Year 1 — you ever heard of the saying “skill versus will”? Well, we have will, but we’re going to have to do things that our skill allows us to do.

…We’re determined to find a way to get after the quarterback…the bottom line is to get a ‘W’ in the win column, so we are looking at all angles of what we do, all the way down to the practice structure, to where we stand during timeouts, to how we [hydrate], to weight training, to our mess hall…we’re looking at the totality of everything to get this thing right. The only way that I know to keep working is to keep swinging that axe, and that tree is going to fall at some point.

The latter part of that is more about the program in general, of course, but what Drayton is essentially saying is that The Citadel lacks the personnel to employ a more aggressive defense.

The result is a bend-but-don’t-break style of D, and I think most fans understand that concept. The problem is the Bulldogs haven’t really been able to produce a high rate of turnovers or at least hold opponents to field goal attempts when reaching the red zone.

Opposing quarterbacks have had plenty of time to find open receivers, no matter how good the coverage, which has resulted in The Citadel allowing a completion percentage of 76.3%, which is the worst in FCS. The Bulldogs are allowing 9.65 yards per attempt, which is 123rd nationally (out of 128 teams).

(Note: these numbers are per the NCAA’s statistical site. There is a very slight variance between that package and the stats profile found on The Citadel’s own site.)

That lack of pressure can be seen in the defense’s sack rate. The Citadel has registered three sacks through five games, for a sack rate of 124th in FCS (one sack per every 52 opposing pass attempts). The Bulldogs also do not fare well when considering sacks per TD pass allowed or sacks per passing yardage allowed (ranking 126th nationally in both of those categories).

While not directly related to QB pressure, the Bulldogs’ tackling woes have also been a major problem, as anyone who watched the game against WCU can attest. All too often, The Citadel had a defender in position to make a play — sometimes a consequential stop — but the ballcarrier escaped the would-be tackler and picked up significant yardage.

Curiously, the lack of pressure on opposing QBs might be a league-wide trend, because most of the other SoCon programs are not really putting up gaudy sack rates either. The exception is Chattanooga, which ranks in the top 20 in FCS in most of those categories.

For the record, Furman’s defense ranks 87th nationally in sacks per pass attempt, 97th in yardage allowed per sack, and 103rd in TDs allowed per sack. To be fair, the Paladins’ statistical issues on pass defense can be attributed in no small part to Spencer Rattler and South Carolina (463 yards and 5 TDs against one sack).

The other consideration is that Furman’s defense has nine takeaways in its first four games (including five interceptions), part of an overall turnover margin of +6 for the Paladins.

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Last week, FBSchedules.com reported that a contract agreement between The Citadel and Clemson to play during the 2028 season had been completed.

That contract was signed on May 17 of this year and is the most recently finalized non-conference game contract involving The Citadel. Two weeks before, the school had agreed to a two-game series with North Dakota State for contests in 2025 and 2027, the first of which will take place in Charleston.

The Citadel will receive $500,000 for the game at Clemson and will be allotted 2,500 complimentary tickets, with most of those presumably to be sold by the military college. Cheerleaders, mascots, and the band receive free admission (although tickets for the band, if it makes an appearance, will count against the allotted ticket total).

I know some folks are interested in some of the ancillary details, so I’ll add that in terms of credentials, The Citadel will receive 60 team bench area passes, 16 all-access passes, 8 coaches’ booth passes, and 6 team/coach video passes.

As for the North Dakota State matchups, each school will be provided 200 complimentary tickets for their respective visits. There are no ticketing provisions for bands, cheerleaders, or mascots. Also, each school will pay the other $50,000 after hosting, which I thought was a bit odd.

North Dakota State also received permission for the game in Charleston to be broadcast to its home media market (ABC North Dakota). It would still be available for streaming on ESPN+.

For the Clemson game and for both NDSU contests, game officials will be assigned by the home team (or as stated in the Clemson contract, “the assigning agency of the host institution”).

There are two other provisions, one in each contract, that are worth noting.

– In the Clemson contract: “Moreover, if either party’s governing conference reduces the number of nonconference games or if due to conference realignment nonconference games are eliminated or reduced, then either party, upon written notice, may cancel the Game without penalty or the payment of liquidated damages.”

That clause was not in the 2017 game contract between the two schools that set up the 2020 and 2024 contests.

– In the NDSU contract: “This agreement may be voided by either party, without penalty or damages, if either is reclassified to a different NCAA membership division after the contract has been executed.”

—

I wrote about future non-conference schedules for the Bulldogs late last year. With the Clemson game and the two NDSU matchups now included as well, here is an updated list of such games for The Citadel:

2024: at Charleston Southern (8/31), South Carolina State (9/7), North Greenville (9/14), at Clemson (11/23)

2025: North Dakota State (8/30), at Mississippi (9/6), at Gardner-Webb (9/13)

2026: at Charlotte (9/5), Charleston Southern (9/19)

2027: at Navy (9/4), at North Dakota State (9/18)

2028: Gardner-Webb (9/2), at Clemson (9/16)

2029: at Army (10/6)

2033: at Army (11/19)

As a reminder, the 2024 and 2025 seasons are both years in which an FCS team can play 12 regular-season contests, so The Citadel could potentially play four non-conference games in those seasons. It will definitely do so in 2024, as the school has already finalized a full slate.

As for the 2025 season, a non-conference home game is still needed (unless The Citadel were to play seven road games that year, which would not be a good idea).

—

Speaking of non-conference schedules, Furman recently added some games. The Paladins currently have on tap for the future the following matchups:

2024: at Mississippi (8/31), Charleston Southern (9/7), Stetson (9/14), at William and Mary (9/21)

2025: Presbyterian (8/30), William and Mary (9/6), at North Carolina A&T (9/13), at Clemson (11/22)

2026: Tennessee (9/15), South Carolina State, at Richmond

2027: Richmond, at South Carolina State

The dates for Furman’s games against Richmond and SCSU have not yet been announced, to the best of my knowledge.

—

I would anticipate a good crowd will be on hand at Paladin Stadium this Saturday, what with an in-state matchup, and Furman having a good season thus far (and one that was expected). It is also Family Weekend, which is Furman’s version of Parents’ Weekend.

As I mentioned last week, and will continue to mention in other previews, the goal for The Citadel is improvement. I thought last week the Bulldogs did show some positive development, just not nearly enough to produce a win or even a particularly close game.

I do wonder what would have happened if not for the horrific officiating call that took away the Bulldogs’ kickoff return TD — momentum does matter — but the bottom line is that it would be incredibly myopic to ignore how the rest of the game went.

If the team continues to get better, and does so on both sides of the ball, then eventually that will lead to an opportunity to put a ‘W’ in the win column, as Maurice Drayton might say. In all honesty, that possibility is not likely this Saturday.

On the other hand, that’s why they play the games.

Filed under: Football, The Citadel | Tagged: Clay Hendrix, Clemson, Furman, Maurice Drayton, North Dakota State, SoCon, The Citadel | Leave a comment »

FCS vs. FBS, 2021 — a quick rundown

Posted on August 26, 2021 by Sandlapper Spike

2019 preseason college football rankings, featuring The Citadel (and the rest of the SoCon)

Posted on June 8, 2019 by Sandlapper Spike

A few links of interest:

– Hero Sports FCS Preseason Top 25 (The Citadel is ranked 25th)

– Hero Sports FCS Preseason All-American teams (Bulldogs punter Matthew Campbell in on the third team)

– Homecoming at The Citadel — a brief gridiron history

It must be June, because the college football preview magazines are on the street. What follows is a quick review of the mags’ rankings from The Citadel’s perspective, with a few other tidbits thrown in for good measure.

Not included in this writeup: my annual look at the preseason Massey Ratings. I’ll discuss those in a future post.

—

Street & Smith’s FCS top 25 has James Madison at #1, with North Dakota State ranked second. South Dakota State is 3rd, followed by Eastern Washington and Jacksonville State. Four of those five teams were in the magazine’s preseason top 5 last year as well.

Wofford is ranked #8, and Furman is #14. Others of interest: Towson (9th), Elon (18th), and North Carolina A&T (19th).

The magazine’s preseason All-America squad includes Wofford offensive lineman Justus Basinger (named the SoCon’s top NFL prospect), East Tennessee State defensive back Tyree Robinson, and Furman specialist Grayson Atkins (honored as a placekicker on this list).

This year’s SoCon preview was authored by Pat Yasinskas, who is currently based in Tampa. In his reportorial career, Yasinskas (a native of Pennsylvania) has primarily written about the NFL, covering the Carolina Panthers for The Charlotte Observer and the NFC South for ESPN.com.

To be honest, I am unsure how much time the graduate of Saint Leo University has spent following the Southern Conference. I found two twitter accounts for him, both inactive.

At any rate, the league preseason rankings for S&S:

1 – Wofford
2 – Furman
3 – East Tennessee State
4 – Chattanooga
5 – Mercer
6 – Samford
7 – The Citadel
8 – Western Carolina
9 – VMI

With regards to The Citadel, Yaskinskas writes that the Bulldogs have “a chance to be competitive, mainly because 10 starters return on offense. The development of quarterback Brandon Rainey will be a key.” He also references new defensive coordinator Tony Grantham and linebacker Willie Eubanks III.

Charleston Southern is projected to finish third in the Big South. Monmouth is the pick to win that league instead of Kennesaw State, which might raise a few eyebrows (and the Owls did not make Street & Smith‘s preseason top 25).

Towson is ranked second in the CAA, while Elon is picked to finish fifth.

S&S has South Carolina State finishing fourth in the MEAC, with North Carolina A&T the favorite in that conference. Other top-dog choices in FCS leagues include Eastern Washington, James Madison, Princeton, North Dakota State, Duquesne, Jacksonville State, Colgate, San Diego, and Nicholls.

In the shadowy world of FBS, Georgia Tech (which will host The Citadel on September 14) is projected to finish last in the ACC’s Coastal Division.

—

Lindy’s ranks North Dakota State #1 in its FCS preseason poll. The rest of its top 5: South Dakota State, Kennesaw State, Jacksonville State, and UC Davis.

Wofford is ranked #13, East Tennessee State #17, and Furman #20. Other teams of note include Towson (6th) and North Carolina A&T (22nd).

The Lindy’s preseason first team All-America squad for the FCS includes Tyrie Adams of Western Carolina, who is listed not as a quarterback but as an all-purpose player. Two ETSU defensive stalwarts, defensive lineman Nasir Player and the aforementioned Tyree Robinson, are also on the first team. (Player is a product of Ridge View High School in Columbia.)

Towson quarterback Tom Flacco is the magazine’s first-team quarterback and its preseason MVP for the entire division. His teammate, placekicker Aidan O’Neill, is also on the first team.

The magazine also has a preseason second team, which includes Wofford offensive lineman Justus Basinger and Furman “bandit” linebacker Adrian Hope. Towson running back/kick returner Shane Simpson is the all-purpose designee on the second team.

The national preview (which focuses on North Dakota State) was written by George Gordon. I could not find any background information on him. I am assuming he is not related to any of the Civil War/British generals who also share his name; he presumably has no association with well-known law enforcement officer James W. Gordon or noted library sciences advocate Barbara Gordon, either.

The preseason SoCon rankings, per Lindy’s:

1 – Wofford
2 – East Tennessee State
3 – Furman
4 – Samford
5 – Mercer
6 – Chattanooga
7 – Western Carolina
8 – The Citadel
9 – VMI

A brief blurb about The Citadel in the magazine states that defensive lineman Joseph Randolph II is “one of the league’s underrated players”.

On the one hand, ETSU is picked to finish higher in the league standings by Lindy’s than just about any other source. On the other, the magazine references Logan Marchi as returning at quarterback for the Buccaneers, which will not be the case.

Charleston Southern is the preseason #5 team in the Big South, while South Carolina State is picked to finish fourth in the MEAC.

Teams expected by Lindy’s to win their respective FCS leagues include Colgate, Duquesne, Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, Nicholls, North Carolina A&T, North Dakota State, Princeton, San Diego, Southern, Towson, and UC Davis.

Georgia Tech is picked to finish last in the ACC Coastal Division, and is ranked the #90 FBS team overall.

—

As was the case last year, Athlon does not have an FCS conference preview section. Craig Haley of STATS FCS Football has again written the magazine’s national preview of the division, with a Top 25 ranking list, an All-America team, and projected playoff qualifiers. The entire section takes up only four pages in Athlon‘s 304-page tome.

Haley’s top 5: North Dakota State, James Madison, South Dakota State, Eastern Washington, and UC Davis.

Wofford is 10th in this poll, and Furman is 16th. Those two teams are the only SoCon squads projected to make the FCS playoffs, and their meeting in Spartanburg on November 16 is one of ten “must-see matchups” listed by the magazine.

Also ranked: Towson (#11) and Elon (#21). Both are also expected to advance to postseason play as at-large picks out of the CAA, with James Madison the pick to win that league. Other conference favorites include Colgate, Duquesne, Eastern Washington, Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, North Dakota State, Nicholls, San Diego, and North Carolina A&T.

Athlon‘s preseason All-America team features just one SoCon player, with Nasir Player of ETSU again receiving recognition from a major publication. As was the case with Lindy’s, Towson’s Aidan O’Neill is the placekicker.

Georgia Tech fares no better in Athlon than it does in Street & Smith‘s or Lindy’s, as the Yellow Jackets are picked to occupy the cellar of the ACC Coastal Division (with a 4-8 overall record). The preseason national FBS ranking for Georgia Tech by the magazine is #75.

—

A couple of other notes:

– Phil Steele is not releasing an FCS preview magazine this season. I think the nation will survive.

– Athlon features a list of “The 100 Twitter Accounts to Follow” for college football. Shockingly, @SandlapperSpike did not make the cut. Clearly this an outrage.

While quite a few individuals on Athlon‘s list are represented on my own timeline, there are several people mentioned by the magazine that you couldn’t pay me to follow — in particular, the business/media analysis twitter picks, namely the deadly duo of Darren Rovell and Richard Deitsch. Frankly, life is too short to follow either one of those two killjoys.

—

Finally, my favorite tweet over the last week or so:

Does your college have a tank?

Because we have a tank. 😏#FireThoseCannons | #TheCitadel pic.twitter.com/Ymu1E8fCTs

— The Citadel Football (@CitadelFootball) June 4, 2019

Filed under: Football, The Citadel | Tagged: Adrian Hope, Aidan O'Neill, Athlon, Brandon Rainey, Charleston Southern, Chattanooga, East Tennessee State, Elon, FCS, Furman, Georgia Tech, Grayson Atkins, Joseph Randolph II, Justus Basinger, Lindy's, Mercer, Nasir Player, North Dakota State, Samford, SoCon, Street & Smith's, The Citadel, Tom Flacco, Tony Grantham, Towson, Tyree Robinson, Tyrie Adams, VMI, Western Carolina, Willie Eubanks III, Wofford | Leave a comment »

2018 preseason rankings and ratings, featuring The Citadel (and the rest of the SoCon)

Posted on June 6, 2018 by Sandlapper Spike

Yes, it’s that time of year. The preview magazines are out, and the Massey Ratings have been updated for preseason 2018. Let’s get right to the nitty-gritty!

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Lindy’s ranks North Dakota State #1 in its FCS preseason poll. The rest of its top 5: James Madison, Sam Houston State, Jacksonville State, and South Dakota State. Incidentally, the top four teams were also the top four squads in Lindy’s 2017 preseason poll (with NDSU and JMU flip-flopped).

Wofford is ranked #10 (as was also the case in the magazine’s 2017 preseason poll), Samford #13, and Furman #17. Other teams of note include Kennesaw State (#7), North Carolina A&T (#19), and Elon (#21).

The Lindy’s preseason first team All-America squad for the FCS includes two players from Samford, quarterback Devlin Hodges and defensive lineman Ahmad Gooden. Not only that, but both are the magazine’s preseason national MVPs (on offense and defense, respectively).

Lindy’s first team also includes Wofford offensive lineman Ross Demmel. That is a bit problematic, as Demmel (who was an academic senior last season) is not on the Terriers’ 2018 roster.

The magazine’s preseason second team does feature a Wofford player who is expected to be on the field this year, however, in defensive lineman Miles Brown.

The preseason SoCon rankings, per Lindy’s:

1 – Wofford
2 – Samford
3 – Furman
4 – Western Carolina
5 – Chattanooga
6 – The Citadel
7 – Mercer
8 – East Tennessee State
9 – VMI

Charleston Southern is the preseason #2 team in the Big South, while Towson is projected to finish 11th in the 12-team CAA.

South Carolina State is picked 5th in the MEAC.

—

Street & Smith’s FCS top 25 is similar to Lindy’s at the top, with North Dakota State and James Madison 1-2 in the rankings. South Dakota State is 3rd, followed by Kennesaw State and Jacksonville State.

Samford is ranked #10, Furman #17, and Wofford #21. Others of interest: Elon (9th), North Carolina A&T (15th), and Richmond (24th).

The magazine’s preseason All-America squad includes Samford’s Hodges and Gooden. No other SoCon players are named (and Street & Smith’s does not have a preseason second team).

As was the case last year, the SoCon preview was written by S&S assistant editor Will Long, who is based in Charlotte (and is a graduate of Clemson). The rankings:

1 – Samford
2 – Furman
3 – Wofford
4 – Mercer
5 – Western Carolina
6 – The Citadel
7 – Chattanooga
8 – East Tennessee State
9 – VMI

Charleston Southern is projected to finish third in the Big South (behind Kennesaw State and Monmouth). Towson is picked 8th in the CAA.

S&S is not bullish on South Carolina State, with Buddy Pough’s charges ranked 9th in the 10-team MEAC.

—

Disappointingly, Athlon does not have an FCS conference preview section. The magazine does have a Top 25 preview written by Craig Haley of STATS FCS Football. The top 5, per Haley: North Dakota State, James Madison, New Hampshire, South Dakota State, and Kennesaw State.

Samford is 12th in this poll, with Wofford 16th. Those two teams are the only SoCon teams projected to make the FCS playoffs.

(It should be noted that the Terriers are not listed as a potential qualifier in the Athlon magazine currently on the shelf of your local bookstore. Wofford and Youngstown State were left off the page by mistake, but subsequently included in an online summary).

Also ranked: Elon (#10) and North Carolina A&T (#20). Monmouth, everyone’s favorite traditional Big South school, is included in an “others to watch” category.

Athlon‘s preseason All-America team includes Ahmad Gooden, but not his teammate Devlin Hodges; the squad’s quarterback is Eastern Washington’s Gage Gubrud.

Wofford’s Miles Brown is on the team, as is Western Carolina punter Ian Berryman. The magazine does not have a preseason All-America second team.

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Okay, let’s talk about the Massey Ratings…

For the last few years, I’ve been incorporating the Massey Ratings into my game previews. For those not entirely familiar with this ratings system, here is an explanation:

The Massey Ratings are designed to measure past performance, not necessarily to predict future outcomes…overall team rating is a merit based quantity, and is the result of applying a Bayesian win-loss correction to the power rating.

…In contrast to the overall rating, the Power is a better measure of potential and is less concerned with actual wins-losses.

…A team’s Offense power rating essentially measures the ability to score points. This does not distinguish how points are scored, so good defensive play that leads to scoring will be reflected in the Offense rating. In general, the offensive rating can be interpreted as the number of points a team would be expected to score against an average defense.

Similarly, a team’s Defense power rating reflects the ability to prevent its opponent from scoring. An average defense will be rated at zero. Positive or negative defensive ratings would respectively lower or raise the opponent’s expected score accordingly.

…the Massey model will in some sense minimize the unexplained error (noise). Upsets will occur and it is impossible (and also counter-productive) to get an exact fit to the actual game outcomes. Hence, I publish an estimated standard deviation. About 68% of observed game results will fall within one standard deviation of the expected (“average”) result.

…Preseason ratings are typically derived as a weighted average of previous years’ final ratings. As the current season progresses, their effect gets damped out completely. The only purpose preseason ratings serve is to provide a reasonable starting point for the computer. Mathematically, they guarantee a unique solution to the equations early in the season when not enough data is available yet.

Massey rates every single college football team — not just FBS and FCS squads, but D-2, D-3, NAIA, junior colleges, even Canadian and Mexican schools. This season, there are preseason ratings for 957 colleges and universities, from Alabama (#1) to Minnesota State Community & Technical College (#957).

This year, The Citadel is #218 overall in the preseason ratings. As a comparison, the Bulldogs were the preseason #130 team last year, #113 in the 2016 preseason, and #174 in the 2015 preseason.

The teams on The Citadel’s 2018 schedule are rated as follows (with the chances of a Bulldogs victory in parenthesis):

at Wofford – #162 (21%)
Chattanooga – #217 (56%)
Charleston Southern – #214 (56%)
at Mercer – #174 (29%)
at Towson – #178 (28%)
East Tennessee State – #264 (72%)
at VMI – #403 (92%)
Furman – #158 (28%)
at Western Carolina – #185 (35%)
Samford – #148 (27%)
Alabama – #1 (0%)

On the site, The Citadel’s matchups with ETSU and WCU are not listed for some reason. I used the Massey simulator to derive projected win percentages for those two games.

There are simulations for any possible matchup. Feel free to waste a few hours playing with them.

Going by the ratings, a Massey preseason poll for the SoCon would look like this:

1 – Samford
2 – Furman
3 – Wofford
4 – Mercer
5 – Western Carolina
6 – Chattanooga
7 – The Citadel
8 – East Tennessee State
9 – VMI

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Massey’s FCS-only ratings for select schools:

North Dakota State – 1
James Madison – 2
South Dakota State – 3
Weber State – 4
Western Illinois – 5
Northern Iowa – 6
Youngstown State – 7
Southern Utah – 8
South Dakota – 9
Eastern Washington – 10
Richmond – 13
Delaware – 15
Kennesaw State – 19
Samford – 25
Yale – 27
Furman – 30
Wofford – 32
Elon – 34
Mercer – 37
Colgate – 38
North Carolina A&T – 39
Towson – 41
Western Carolina – 44
William and Mary – 50
Charleston Southern – 57
Chattanooga – 60
The Citadel – 61
Harvard – 64
Lehigh – 65
East Tennessee State – 81
Gardner-Webb – 86
Presbyterian – 93
South Carolina State – 95
Campbell – 110
VMI – 113
Georgetown – 115
Davidson – 124
Mississippi Valley State – 125

Massey is clearly a big fan of the Missouri Valley Football Conference (six teams in the top 10). Mississippi Valley State is the lowest-rated FCS squad.

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In the “overall” category, some schools of note:

Alabama – 1
Georgia – 2
Clemson – 3
Oklahoma – 4
Ohio State – 5
Penn State – 6
Wisconsin – 7
Auburn – 8
Notre Dame – 9
Oklahoma State – 10
TCU – 11
UCF – 12
North Carolina State – 16
Miami (FL) – 17
Michigan – 19
Mississippi State – 20
Virginia Tech – 21
Florida State – 25
Southern California – 27
Wake Forest – 28
Georgia Tech – 32
South Carolina – 33
North Dakota State – 34 (highest-rated FCS team)
Duke – 35
Texas A&M – 39
James Madison – 45
Missouri – 49
Florida – 50
Navy – 53
Florida Atlantic – 57
North Carolina – 59
Maryland – 60
Army – 67
Appalachian State – 68
UCLA – 69
Tennessee – 75
Weber State – 80
Western Illinois – 81
Rutgers – 87
Air Force – 96
BYU – 97
Western Ontario – 111 (highest-rated Canadian team)
Southern Mississippi – 112
Connecticut – 118
Northwest Missouri State – 131 (highest-rated D-2 team)
Fullerton College – 150 (highest-rated junior college team)
Coastal Carolina – 156
Georgia Southern – 159
San Jose State – 173
Texas State – 180
Mt. Union – 200 (highest-rated D-3 team)
St. Francis (IN) – 245 (highest-rated NAIA team)
North Greenville – 297
UDLA Puebla – 359 (highest-rated Mexican team)
Newberry – 360
Lenoir-Rhyne – 416
Limestone – 445

—

Football season is getting closer. Trust me, it is…

Filed under: Football, The Citadel | Tagged: Athlon, Chattanooga, East Tennessee State, Furman, Lindy's, Massey Ratings, Mercer, North Dakota State, Samford, SoCon, Street & Smith's, The Citadel, VMI, Western Carolina, Wofford | 1 Comment »

College Football 2017, Week #2: the top 15 matchups

Posted on September 8, 2017 by Sandlapper Spike

From last week, an explanation of what this topic is all about:

On his college hoops ratings website, Ken Pomeroy has an algorithm called ‘FanMatch’, in which “games are rated for competitiveness and level of play with a lean towards higher-scoring games”. It is a way to rate the potential watchability of various basketball contests. There is just a touch of whimsy involved, which makes it even better…

As noted before, I’ve created a very complicated (and secret) formula to produce game ratings; this matrix is called “Tingle Factor”, or TF. The higher the TF, the better.

I’ll list the top 15 TF games of Week 2, excluding The Citadel-Presbyterian, because it wouldn’t be fair to compare that game with less consequential pigskin contests.

Sometimes the best games of the week are the anticipated, high-profile contests, but often under-the-radar matchups are well worth watching.

Usually, those under-the-radar games would include includes FCS contests, but this week the top 15 are all FBS vs. FBS battles. Surprisingly, the North Dakota State-Eastern Washington game, a matchup of traditional and highly-ranked FCS powers, did not make the top 15. Perhaps the algorithm knows something we don’t know.

To access a Google Document that has a complete schedule of televised/streamed D-1 college football games (including all the announcing teams), see this post: Link

Here are the top 15 games for Week 2. All of them are being played on Saturday.

Road Team	Home Team	Gametime (ET)	TV/Streaming	TF
Auburn	Clemson	9/9, 7:00 pm	ESPN	88.1
Stanford	Southern California	9/9, 8:30 pm	FOX/FS-Go	87.9
Georgia	Notre Dame	9/9, 7:30 pm	NBC	87.5
Oklahoma	Ohio State	9/9, 7:30 pm	ABC/ESPN3	87.1
South Carolina	Missouri	9/9, 7:00 pm	ESPN2	81.8
Boise State	Washington State	9/9, 10:30 pm	ESPN	80.5
Northwestern	Duke	9/9, 12:00 pm	ESPNU	76.0
TCU	Arkansas	9/9, 3:30 pm	CBS	75.3
Iowa	Iowa State	9/9, 12:00 pm	ESPN2	72.1
Wake Forest	Boston College	9/9, 1:00 pm	ACC Digital Network	70.3
Mississippi State	Louisiana Tech	9/9, 7:30 pm	CBS Sports Network	68.1
Pittsburgh	Penn State	9/9, 3:30 pm	ABC/ESPN3	67.2
Nebraska	Oregon	9,9, 4:30 pm	FOX/FS-Go	65.9
Tulane	Navy	9/9, 3:30 pm	CBS Sports Network	65.0
Utah	BYU	9/9, 10:15 pm	ESPN2	63.8

Additional notes and observations:

– The three CBS/CBS Sports Network games will also be streamed on CBS Sports Digital.

– The Georgia-Notre Dame game will also be streamed on NBC Live Extra.

– The games on the ESPN “Family of Networks” will also be streamed via WatchESPN.

– Because none of the top 15 matchups are on the Pac-12 Network, most college football fans will be able to watch all of these games.

– As you can see, the top four games are all very closely rated by the system. All four have a higher rating than any game played last week.

– Perhaps the biggest surprise in the top 15 is the Wake Forest-Boston College game. When those two teams played two years ago, the Demon Deacons eked out a 3-0 victory.

Last season, the score was 17-14. For some reason, however, the algorithm really likes that matchup this week.

– This is the second week in a row games involving South Carolina and Navy have cracked the top 15.

—

This should be a great slate of college football games, especially in the late afternoon and evening. It should be filled with compelling matchups.

Can’t wait.

Filed under: Football | Tagged: Arkansas, Auburn, Boise State, Boston College, BYU, Clemson, Duke, Eastern Washington, Georgia, Louisiana Tech, Mississippi State, Navy, Nebraska, North Dakota State, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn State, Pittsburgh, South Carolina, Southern California, Stanford, TCU, TF, Tingle Factor, Tulane, Utah, Wake Forest, Washington State | Leave a comment »

With less than a month to go until football season begins, an odds-on look at Week 0 and Week 1

Posted on August 1, 2017 by Sandlapper Spike

Please note: the information contained in this post is for entertainment purposes only. Use of this information in violation of any city, county, state, federal, international, interplanetary, or interdimensional laws is prohibited.

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I’m basically going to do three things in this post: take a look at the sizable number of “lopsided” early-season contests; compare Massey Ratings projected game scores with early lines for various games of interest; and make a list of the best opening weekend (and pre-opening weekend) matchups.

Why am I doing this? Well, why not?

Lines are courtesy of an offshore site to be named later.

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There are 136 contests in Weeks 0 and 1 that feature at least one Division I team. Among them are 44 FBS vs. FBS games; of those, 11 are games between Power-5 conference teams, 9 are Group of 5 matchups, and 24 are games in which a P5 team is playing a G5 opponent.

There are also 48 FBS vs. FCS matchups, 26 FCS vs. FCS contests, and 18 games in which FCS teams face non-D1 opposition.

Of those 136 games, 36 have an early-line spread of 30 points or more.

The breakdown of those 36 matchups:

FBS vs. FBS: 6
FBS vs. FCS: 18
FCS vs. FCS: 4
FCS vs. non-D1: 8

It’s not great that more than 26% of the D-1 games which take place prior to and through the Labor Day weekend are projected to be that one-sided. Of course, it could be argued that this is the best time for these matchups, given that the general football-loving public is starved for live gridiron action of any kind, no matter the blowout potential.

As of August 1, the largest point spread for any D-1 game in this time period is the Florida A&M-Arkansas contest on August 31, a Thursday night affair in Little Rock. The Razorbacks are favored by 51.5 points. Two games have 51-point spreads, Bethune-Cookman vs. Miami (the homestanding Hurricanes are favored, just to state the obvious) and an all-FCS matchup, Mississippi Valley State vs. North Dakota State (with the host Bison expected to prevail).

The biggest road favorite is Washington, favored by 30.5 points at Rutgers. Stanford plays Rice at a neutral site (Sydney, Australia); the Cardinal are 31.5-point favorites.

The other four FBS vs. FBS matchups with a spread of 30+ points: UTEP-Oklahoma (44 points, the largest spread in an all-FBS game), Kent State-Clemson (38.5 points), Georgia Southern-Auburn (35 points), and Akron-Penn State (33 points). To the surprise of no one, the home teams are all favored.

The other three FCS vs. FCS games with 30+ point spreads: Butler-Illinois State (36 points), Valparaiso-Montana (34 points; apologies to Adam Amin), and Delaware State-Delaware (33 points). Again, home teams are the favorites.

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In the table below, I’ve included every FBS/FCS game in Week 0 (eight games played on August 26, and one on August 27), and a sampling of contests from Week 1 (August 31 through September 4). Just to reiterate, not every D-1 game from Week 1 is listed.

The first nine games in the table are from Week 0.

Favorite	Underdog	Line	Massey	Differential
Colorado State	Oregon State	3.5	34-31	0.5
BYU	Portland State	32.5	44-13	1.5
Florida A&M	Texas Southern	1.5	26-24	-0.5
Jacksonville State	Chattanooga	6.5	28-26	4.5
Cal Poly	Colgate	7	35-31	3
USF	San Jose State	20	41-31	10
Stanford	Rice	31.5	38-7	0.5
Sam Houston State	Richmond	6.5	38-34	2.5
Hawai’i	Massachusetts	1	33-31	-1
Wake Forest	Presbyterian	39	35-0	4
Toledo	Elon	37.5	43-7	1.5
Georgia State	Tennessee State	18	38-17	-3
Arkansas	Florida A&M	51.5	52-3	2.5
Mercer	Jacksonville	21	42-21	0
Samford	Kennesaw State	7.5	38-30	-0.5
Towson	Morgan State	28	35-7	0
Oklahoma State	Tulsa	17	42-33	8
Ohio State	Indiana	20.5	31-17	6.5
Army	Fordham	15.5	40-24	-0.5
Eastern Michigan	Charlotte	12.5	35-27	4.5
Navy	Florida Atlantic	13.5	42-28	-0.5
Colorado	Colorado State	7	35-28	0
Clemson	Kent State	38.5	44-3	-2.5
Texas	Maryland	16.5	34-27	9.5
Oklahoma	UTEP	44	49-13	8
North Carolina	California	12.5	42-32	2.5
Villanova	Lehigh	6.5	28-22	0.5
Pittsburgh	Youngstown State	14	40-24	-2
North Carolina State	South Carolina	5.5	28-17	-5.5
Notre Dame	Temple	15	28-24	11
Georgia	Appalachian State	14.5	21-18	11.5
Michigan	Florida	4	24-20	0
Virginia	William and Mary	19.5	33-14	0.5
North Dakota State	Mississippi Valley State	51	52-0	-1
Texas Tech	Eastern Washington	16.5	45-38	9.5
Mississippi State	Charleston Southern	18.5	38-21	1.5
The Citadel	Newberry	30	37-7	0
Wofford	Furman	13.5	26-14	1.5
Gardner-Webb	North Carolina A&T	7	28-21	0
Baylor	Liberty	30	42-14	2
East Tennessee State	Limestone	28.5	35-7	0.5
Auburn	Georgia Southern	35	34-13	14
Air Force	VMI	31.5	41-10	0.5
Alabama	Florida State	7.5	33-21	-4.5
LSU	BYU	13	21-7	-1
Southern	South Carolina State	2.5	27-24	-0.5
Virginia Tech	West Virginia	4	29-26	1
UCLA	Texas A&M	3.5	25-28	6.5
Tennessee	Georgia Tech	3.5	31-32	4.5

—

Odds (hey, a pun!) and ends:

Not listed: James Madison-East Carolina, which does not have a line at present for some reason. However, Massey projects FCS defending champ JMU to win the game 38-31.
Western Carolina’s season opener at Hawai’i also does not have a line (at least, not one that I could find), possibly because the Rainbow Warriors play a game at Massachusetts the week before.
The same is true for Coastal Carolina, which opens by hosting the aforementioned Minutemen.
Two teams in the table that are favorites (UCLA and Tennessee) are projected to lose by the Massey Ratings.
Massey projects several games to be considerably closer than the current lines, notably Appalachian State-Georgia, Maryland-Texas, Eastern Washington-Texas Tech, Temple-Notre Dame, and Tulsa-Oklahoma State.
On the other hand, Massey likes North Carolina State and Alabama even more than the offshore folks do.

—

On his college basketball ratings website, Ken Pomeroy has something called ‘FanMatch’, in which “games are rated for competitiveness and level of play with a lean towards higher-scoring games”. It is a somewhat whimsical way to rate the potential watchability of individual games on a given night.

I’m going to do the same thing here. However, I am purposely not going to rate Newberry-The Citadel, which from my vantage point is the most watchable game of the Labor Day weekend.

Below is a listing of the Week 0/1 games that I consider to be the twenty best in terms of quality/competitiveness. I’ve created a secret formula to produce these game ratings; it is called “Tingle Factor”, or TF. The higher the TF, the better.

Road Team	Home Team	Gametime (ET)	TV/Streaming	TF
Alabama	Florida State	9/2, 8:00 pm	ABC/ESPN3	86.73
North Carolina State	South Carolina	9/2, 3:00 pm	ESPN	84.20
Tennessee	Georgia Tech	9/4, 8:00 pm	ESPN	83.90
Virginia Tech	West Virginia	9/3, 7:30 pm	ABC/ESPN3	83.55
Richmond	Sam Houston State	8/27, 7:00 pm	ESPNU	80.11
Tulsa	Oklahoma State	8/31, 7:30 pm	FS1/FS-Go	79.68
Chattanooga	Jacksonville State	8/26, 6:30 pm	ESPN	75.41
Colorado State	Colorado	9/1, 8:00 pm	Pac-12 Network	72.15
Oregon State	Colorado State	8/26, 2:30 pm	CBS Sports Net	72.00
James Madison	East Carolina	9/2, 6:00 pm	ESPN3	68.44
Temple	Notre Dame	9/2, 3:30 pm	NBC	67.18
Kennesaw State	Samford	8/31, 7:00 pm	ESPN3	66.95
Texas A&M	UCLA	9/3, 7:30 pm	FOX/FS-Go	65.60
Hawai’i	Massachusetts	8/26, 6:00 pm	TBA	65.47
Maryland	Texas	9/2, 12:00 pm	FS1/FS-Go	64.19
Eastern Washington	Texas Tech	9/2, 4:00 pm	FS Nets/FS-Go	64.03
South Carolina St.	Southern	9/3, 2:30 pm	ESPN2	63.88
Navy	Florida Atlantic	9/2, 8:00 pm	ESPNU	63.79
Villanova	Lehigh	9/2, 12:30 pm	Patriot League DN	63.58
Colgate	Cal Poly	8/26, 7:00 pm	ESPNU	63.56

Notes:

Alabama-Florida State will be played in Atlanta, GA
Georgia Tech-Tennessee will also be played in Atlanta, GA
North Carolina State-South Carolina will be played in Charlotte, NC
Colorado State-Colorado will be played in Denver, CO
Chattanooga-Jacksonville State will be played in Montgomery, AL
Virginia Tech-West Virginia will be played in Landover, MD

—

The season is getting closer…and closer…

Filed under: Football | Tagged: Adam Amin, Alabama, Cal Poly, Colgate, Eastern Washington, FBS, FCS, Florida Atlantic, Kennesaw State, Maryland, Massey Ratings, Mississippi Valley State, Montana, Navy, North Dakota State, Oklahoma, Rutgers, Samford, Texas, Texas A&M, TF, Tingle Factor, UCLA, UTEP, Valparaiso, Washington | Leave a comment »

2017 preseason rankings and ratings, featuring The Citadel (and the rest of the SoCon)

Posted on July 4, 2017 by Sandlapper Spike

Previous posts on The Citadel’s upcoming football campaign:

– Inside the numbers: run/pass tendencies, 4th-down decision-making, and more (including coin-toss data!)

– A look at “advanced stats” from The Citadel’s most recent SoCon season

– The Citadel’s fans aren’t afraid to travel

—

I think it’s time to take a gander at some preseason rankings and ratings. After all, what’s the purpose of even having a month of July otherwise?

First up, some rankings…

—

This year, the Street & Smith’s college football annual returns, after several years of being usurped by the byline of The Sporting News (which had been acquired by the same company that owned Street & Smith’s about a decade ago). Now, the magazine is going by the Street & Smith’s name again, a return to a tradition that began in 1940.

On a personal level, I was pleased to see this. For years, it was a somewhat of a tradition for my father to buy the Street & Smith’s annual in July (usually after we made a trip to the barber shop). I would voraciously read the magazine cover-to-cover, even the section on the “Little Three” (yes, back in the day S&S would routinely have a page dedicated to the preseason prospects for Amherst, Williams, and Wesleyan).

Anyway, the SoCon preview for this year’s annual was written by S&S assistant editor Will Long (who also wrote the FCS preview article in the magazine). Long is a resident of Charlotte who graduated from Clemson, so presumably he has some familiarity with the conference.

Long wrote that the SoCon “is as wide-open as it has been in recent memory.” His preseason predictions:

1 – Wofford (#9 in the S&S preseason Top 25 of the FCS)
2 – The Citadel (#12)
3 – Chattanooga (#18)
4 – Samford (#20)
5 – Mercer
6 – Furman
7 – Western Carolina
8 – East Tennessee State
9 – VMI

Sam Houston State is the magazine’s #1 team in its preseason top 25, followed by North Dakota State and defending FCS champion James Madison. Big South favorite Charleston Southern is #13, while MEAC standard-bearer North Carolina Central is #22.

The preseason FCS All-America team for Street & Smith’s includes Wofford defensive lineman Tyler Vaughn, South Carolina State linebacker Darius Leonard, and Western Carolina running back Detrez Newsome (on the team as a return specialist).

—

Other preseason magazines tend not to have specific previews for FCS conferences, but stick to national previews and Top 25 rankings.

Athlon ranks The Citadel #25 in its preseason list. North Dakota State is #1 in its rankings, ahead of James Madison, South Dakota State, and Sam Houston State. Wofford is ranked #10, Chattanooga #15, and Samford #18.

Wofford is projected to win the SoCon, with Chattanooga and Samford receiving at-large bids to the FCS playoffs. Based on the rankings, The Citadel is one of the “last two teams out” for making the playoffs, according to Athlon.

Incidentally, the magazine’s online site posted an article that mentions Wofford as a “dark horse” candidate to win the national title.

The annual’s preseason FCS All-America team includes Charleston Southern defensive lineman Anthony Ellis, South Carolina State linebacker Darius Leonard, Western Carolina punter Ian Berryman, and two North Carolina A&T players — offensive lineman Brandon Parker and punt returner Khris Gardin.

—

Lindy’s ranks James Madison #1 in its FCS preseason poll. The rest of its top 5: North Dakota State, Sam Houston State, Jacksonville State, and Eastern Washington. Wofford is ranked #10, Chattanooga #11, The Citadel #18, and Samford #22. Other teams of note include Richmond (#9 here, and in the top 10 of all three rankings for the magazines mentioned in this post), Charleston Southern (#12), and Kennesaw State (#25).

The Lindy’s preseason first team All-America squad for the FCS includes Charleston Southern defensive lineman Anthony Ellis and teammate Solomon Brown (a linebacker), South Carolina State’s Darius Leonard (who may have the most preseason accolades of any FCS player in the Palmetto State), and Western Carolina’s Ian Berryman at punter.

Lindy’s also has a preseason second team, and that features Chattanooga offensive lineman Jacob Revis, Western Carolina return specialist Detrez Newsome, and The Citadel’s Kailik Williams (listed as a safety).

—

For a couple of years now, I’ve been incorporating the Massey Ratings into my weekly game previews. For those not entirely familiar with this ratings system, a quick explanation:

Kenneth Massey (complete with bow tie) is an assistant professor of Mathematics at Carson-Newman University. His college football ratings system was used (with several others) for fifteen years by the BCS, the predecessor to the CFP. Massey has ratings for a wide variety of sports, but the lion’s share of the attention surrounding his work has been focused on college football.

Massey’s bio on the school website notes that he is “likely the most famous of C-N’s faculty” as a result of his ratings systems.

From the ratings website:

The Massey Ratings are designed to measure past performance, not necessarily to predict future outcomes…overall team rating is a merit based quantity, and is the result of applying a Bayesian win-loss correction to the power rating.

…In contrast to the overall rating, the Power is a better measure of potential and is less concerned with actual wins-losses.

…A team’s Offense power rating essentially measures the ability to score points. This does not distinguish how points are scored, so good defensive play that leads to scoring will be reflected in the Offense rating. In general, the offensive rating can be interpreted as the number of points a team would be expected to score against an average defense.

Similarly, a team’s Defense power rating reflects the ability to prevent its opponent from scoring. An average defense will be rated at zero. Positive or negative defensive ratings would respectively lower or raise the opponent’s expected score accordingly.

…the Massey model will in some sense minimize the unexplained error (noise). Upsets will occur and it is impossible (and also counter-productive) to get an exact fit to the actual game outcomes. Hence, I publish an estimated standard deviation. About 68% of observed game results will fall within one standard deviation of the expected (“average”) result.

…Preseason ratings are typically derived as a weighted average of previous years’ final ratings. As the current season progresses, their effect gets damped out completely. The only purpose preseason ratings serve is to provide a reasonable starting point for the computer. Mathematically, they guarantee a unique solution to the equations early in the season when not enough data is available yet.

That lack of data won’t stop us from discussing the rankings, though!

Massey rates every single college football team — not just FBS and FCS squads, but D-2, D-3, NAIA, junior colleges, even Canadian and Mexican schools. This season, there are preseason ratings for 959 colleges and universities (Zorros ITQ, the football team at the Technological Institute at Querétaro, is the preseason #959 squad).

This year, The Citadel is #130 overall in the preseason ratings. As a comparison, the Bulldogs were the preseason #113 team last year and were #174 in the 2015 preseason.

The teams on The Citadel’s 2017 schedule are rated as follows (with the chances of a Bulldogs victory in parenthesis):

Newberry – #341 (98%)
Presbyterian – #296 (96%)
East Tennessee State – #279 (92%)
Samford – #143 (50%)
Mercer – #178 (74%)
Wofford – #110 (43%)
Chattanooga – #117 (36%)
VMI – #228 (87%)
Western Carolina – #208 (83%)
Furman – #169 (62%)
Clemson – #2 (0%)

The Citadel is favored in 7 of 11 matchups, with one tossup.

Don’t worry about that 0% number for the Clemson game, though. When I began simulating the game, on just my fourth try The Citadel beat the Tigers 31-20. Never bet against the Bulldogs.

There are matchup simulations for each game. Feel free to waste a few minutes of your time toying around with them.

Based on the ratings, here are the projected overall season records for The Citadel’s Division I opponents (there aren’t simulations for teams below D-1, so Newberry is not listed):

Presbyterian (2-9)
East Tennessee State (2-9)
Samford (7-3, not including a tossup game versus The Citadel)
Mercer (4-7)
Wofford (10-1)
Chattanooga (8-3)
VMI (3-7, not including a tossup game against Western Carolina)
Western Carolina (2-9, not including a tossup game versus VMI)
Furman (5-6)
Clemson (12-0)

Note: Western Carolina plays 12 regular-season games this season, because it opens at Hawai’i.

—

Let’s look at the FCS-only ratings for a list of select schools:

North Dakota State – 1
James Madison – 2
Eastern Washington – 3
Youngstown State – 4
South Dakota State – 5
Northern Iowa – 6
Jacksonville State – 7
Wofford – 8
Chattanooga – 9
Sam Houston State – 10
Charleston Southern – 11
Villanova – 12
Illinois State – 13
Central Arkansas – 14
Richmond – 15
The Citadel – 16
South Dakota – 17
Western Illinois – 18
New Hampshire – 19
Samford – 20
Lehigh – 26
Cal Poly – 28
Princeton – 30
Furman – 32
William and Mary – 33
San Diego – 34
Liberty – 35 (ranked here despite it being a “transition” year for LU)
Colgate – 36
Mercer – 38
Stony Brook – 41
Delaware – 45
Fordham – 47
Kennesaw State – 50
Gardner-Webb – 52
Towson – 54
Grambling State – 58
Western Carolina – 59
Harvard – 61
VMI – 64
Dartmouth – 67
North Carolina A&T – 70
Monmouth – 71
Yale – 77
Holy Cross – 78
Elon – 79
North Carolina Central – 80
East Tennessee State – 90
Presbyterian – 94
South Carolina State – 96
Campbell – 110
Delaware State – 121
Davidson – 122
Mississippi Valley State – 123
Arkansas-Pine Bluff – 124 (of 124 FCS teams)

North Dakota State is the preseason #1-rated FCS school, as it was last year. NDSU checks in at #58 overall. Other schools on the “overall list” that may be of interest:

Alabama – 1
Clemson – 2
LSU – 3
Florida State – 4
Oklahoma – 5
Michigan – 6
Washington – 7
Ohio State – 8
Miami (FL) – 9
Southern California – 10
Florida – 14
Virginia Tech – 15
North Carolina – 16
Louisville – 19
Tennessee – 20
North Carolina State – 23
Georgia Tech – 24
Notre Dame – 30
Georgia – 34
Appalachian State – 40
Northwest Missouri State – 46 (highest-rated Division II team, and I can’t believe it either)
Texas – 49
Wake Forest – 53
Vanderbilt – 59
Duke – 61
James Madison – 62
UCLA – 64
Kentucky – 65
Navy – 66
Air Force – 73
South Carolina – 74
Maryland – 78
Missouri – 81
Virginia – 83
New Mexico – 92
Georgia Southern – 93
Army – 99
Kansas – 104
Wofford – 110
Rutgers – 113
East Carolina – 115
Chattanooga – 117
Charleston Southern – 120
Coastal Carolina – 125
Massachusetts – 131
Ferris State – 136 (rated second-highest in Division II)
Marshall – 148
Charlotte – 152
Laval – 156 (highest-rated Canadian team)
Buffalo – 164
Texas State – 190
Butte College – 197 (highest-rated junior college team)
Trinity (CT) – 270 (highest-rated Division III team)
St. Francis (IN) – 280 (highest-rated NAIA team)
UAB – 285
North Greenville – 305
UDLA Puebla – 465 (highest-rated Mexican team)

—

Less than two months until actual official pigskin activity…

Filed under: Football, The Citadel | Tagged: Athlon, Chattanooga, East Tennessee State, Furman, Massey Ratings, Mercer, North Dakota State, Samford, SoCon, Street & Smith's, The Citadel, VMI, Western Carolina, Wofford | 2 Comments »

The 2016 FCS Playoffs — a review of the bracket

Posted on November 22, 2016 by Sandlapper Spike

The Bracket

—

Links of interest:

– The Citadel’s playoff path: a bye, then a familiar foe

– Lehigh football snubbed of home playoff game

– New Hampshire makes field for 13th straight year

– Albany left out of playoffs; coach calls exclusion “a sham”

– Wofford earns playoff bid

– Charleston Southern disappointed not to host playoff game

– After being disappointed in the seeding, Sam Houston State coach: “It is what it is”

– South Dakota State gets seed

– Youngstown State in playoffs after a ten-year absence

– “Samford shouldn’t even be in the tournament, let’s just get it straight”

– North Carolina A&T makes playoff, but coach says “we’re still pretty down around here”

– Chattanooga makes playoff field

– Cal Poly gets bid, will host San Diego

– Preview article on NCAA.com

—

First, let’s correct an error in that last article I linked above, the one posted on the NCAA’s own website:

Some other teams that will miss out on postseason action as a whole include Montana, Western Illinois and North Carolina Central, who all lost steam down the stretch and were defeated in Week 12.

North Carolina Central won on Week 12, defeating North Carolina A&T 42-21. The Eagles aren’t missing out on postseason action, either — North Carolina Central is going to the Celebration Bowl instead of the FCS playoffs, while the team that lost to the Eagles (North Carolina A&T) got a bid as an at-large team.

—

I also linked a “handicapping the field” article from the Bison Media Zone. Media members in North Dakota do not think Samford should have made the field.

Of course, being a resident of the Flickertail State isn’t the be-all and end-all when it comes to FCS expertise. In this particular preview, the writer referred to Charleston Southern as the “Mocs”.

I also think he has his guns pointed in the wrong direction when it comes to the exclusion of Albany. I tend to agree that Albany should have been in the tournament, but he failed to identify the most obvious beneficiary of the Great Danes’ absence — New Hampshire.

The two teams played in the same league (the CAA) and finished with the same overall record (7-4). Albany beat FBS Buffalo (admittedly, not the best FBS squad in world history). More to the point, the Great Danes won at New Hampshire.

The Wildcats also managed to lose to Ivy League cellar-dweller Dartmouth, and had no real standout victory. Albany’s worst loss was to Delaware, which strikes me as considerably more acceptable than losing to Dartmouth.

Albany head coach Greg Gattuso called the snub of his team “a sham” on Twitter. He had other comments:

I guess, if I had a question for the (selection) committee, it would be, what in (New Hampshire’s) body of work would be better than ours?

I just think the resume was better. Oh, by the way, we beat them head-to-head at their field. Remember us beating them at their field two weeks ago?

One criteria they might say is conference record. But to me, it’s a skewed point when (New Hampshire) didn’t play the second- and third-place teams. They didn’t play Richmond, they didn’t play Villanova. To me, conference schedule when you don’t play everybody should be thrown out (in picking the tournament).

I think Gattuso has a very legitimate argument.

New Hampshire had been in the playoffs in each of the previous 12 seasons; perhaps the committee just felt comfortable sticking them in the field. Maybe there is an unwritten rule that UNH has to be in the tournament.

Once New Hampshire was picked, the committee then got the chance to pair the Wildcats with Lehigh, and gave New Hampshire a home game in the first round. UNH’s average home attendance is 11,108, so it could be assumed its host bid (in terms of a cash guarantee) was quite good.

Albany’s average home attendance this season was 5,928. Could the committee have been thinking about the potential monetary difference if it came down to Lehigh-Albany or Lehigh-UNH? I’m sure the official answer is “No”, but cynics may have some doubts.

—

In related news, during an interview on a North Dakota radio show, selection committee chairman Brian Hutchinson referenced North Carolina A&T’s “bid offer” as a point in its favor.

I think he probably misspoke — after all, North Carolina A&T isn’t even hosting a first-round game — but what his comment really illustrates is that money is never far from the mind of the committee when selecting, bracketing, and seeding teams. That is unfortunate.

—

The committee apparently had no choice but to pair San Diego and Cal Poly against each other in the first round, despite the fact the two schools have already played this season. From the NCAA’s “Pre-Championship Manual“:

5. Regular season non-conference match-ups in the first round of the championship should be avoided, provided it does not create an additional flight(s).

6. Teams from the same conference will not be paired for first-round games (except for teams from the same conference that did not play against each other during the regular season; such teams may play each other in the first round);

7. Once the first-round pairings have been determined, there will be no adjustments to the bracket (e.g., a seeded team may play a conference opponent that advanced out of the first round).

If Cal Poly and USD had been in the same league, the rematch would have been avoided — but since they’re not, they had to be matched up, because not doing so would have created two extra flights.

That is because Poly and USD were less than 400 miles from each other, but more than 400 miles away from every other unseeded team. Here is the rule on busing/flights:

During the championship, institutions that are playing within 400 miles (one way) of their campus will be required to travel to that site via bus. Institutions traveling more than 400 miles (one way) to their game will be approved for air travel to that site.

I think it’s absurd that the “allow one more flight” stipulation only applies if teams are in the same conference, but that’s the rule, and the committee had no other option. The rule needs to be changed.

—

Of course, when it comes to bracketing, the committee tends to take the path of least resistance anyway. This is the second year in a row there has been a regular-season rematch in the first round.

Last year, the Patriot League champion (Colgate) played at New Hampshire, with the winner facing James Madison. Colgate and UNH had already met during the 2015 regular season.

Naturally, this year the Patriot League champion (Lehigh) will again play at New Hampshire, with the winner again facing James Madison…

—

The manual has this to say about awarding host sites:

3. If the minimum financial guarantees are met, the committee will award the playoff sites to the higher seeded teams.

4. When determining host institutions for playoff games when both teams are unseeded, criteria shall apply as follows: (1) quality of facility, (2) revenue potential plus estimated net receipts, (3) attendance history and potential, (4) team’s performance (i.e., conference place finish, head-to-head results and number of Division I opponents), and (5) student-athlete well-being (e.g., travel and missed class time).

This is not exactly breaking news, but it does explain one aspect of hosting that apparently bothered Charleston Southern coach Jamey Chadwell:

…Chadwell expressed disappointment about having to go on the road, but said getting a playoff opportunity was the ultimate goal.

“It’s disappointing. I don’t know all of the details, but you would think a conference champion would get more favor in the bidding process,” Chadwell said.

As it happens, conference champions don’t get more favor in the bidding process — unless they are matched up against teams in their own league in the first round (which would only occur if the two teams had not met during the regular season).

Charleston Southern hosted last year, but that was because it was a seed and met a minimum financial guarantee. This season, the Buccaneers were unseeded and paired with Wofford.

The decision to hold the game in Spartanburg probably came down to Wofford offering a better financial package, but Charleston Southern fans should be concerned about “quality of facility” being a more significant criterion for hosting than “revenue potential”.

Attendance history is also a factor. Below is the average home attendance for the 16 unseeded teams in the field:

North Carolina A&T: 14,472
Youngstown State: 14,353
New Hampshire: 11,108
Illinois State: 10,156
Chattanooga: 9,494
Central Arkansas: 8,767
Weber State: 8,734
Richmond: 8,700
Cal Poly: 8,413
Wofford: 7,625
Lehigh: 6,527
Villanova: 6,153
Samford: 5,897
Charleston Southern: 2,712
San Diego: 2,405
St. Francis (PA): 1,617

Attendance affects both a potential bid by a school, and the committee’s evaluation of its revenue potential.

Only two of the eight first-round matchups are hosted by teams that had lower average home attendance than their opponents. Richmond is hosting North Carolina A&T, and Central Arkansas is hosting Illinois State.

The second of those involves two schools with fairly close numbers in terms of attendance, but the other matchup has a much wider differential. Either North Carolina A&T wasn’t particularly interested in hosting, or Richmond put in a major league bid.

—

I’m disappointed that for the FCS playoffs, there is yet again a mini-South Carolina bracket in what is supposed to be a national tournament.

This is the second year in a row The Citadel and Charleston Southern have both been bracketed in this fashion, and it is a lame, lame move by Brian Hutchinson and his committee for the second year in a row.

Bulldogs quarterback Dominique Allen:

It’d be nice to face somebody else, somebody besides teams we play all the time.

Linebacker Tevin Floyd of The Citadel:

We have histories with both [Wofford and Charleston Southern], so I think we just wanted to experience something new.

Head coach Brent Thompson of The Citadel:

When it’s the playoffs, you look for some different opponents. You want to get some people to travel in and maybe work outside (the norm) a little bit. But it is what it is, and we have to win the state of South Carolina at this point.

Floyd also said he was happy to be playing at Johnson Hagood Stadium, and Allen referenced a “fun” matchup with either potential opponent, but the point is clear.

I also don’t understand why the committee couldn’t have swapped the Charleston Southern-Wofford pairing and the North Carolina A&T-Richmond pairing in order to avoid a potential second-round rematch.

In other words, the CSU-Wofford winner could have been matched up against North Dakota, while the survivor of N.C. A&T-Richmond played The Citadel (instead of the other way around, as the committee arranged things).

—

If the committee seeded all the teams, 1 through 24, it would be possible to have a balanced, fair tournament. Instead, bracketing decisions are made explicitly for geographic reasons, and they lead to inequities.

Weber State and Cal Poly both were 7-4 overall; Weber State was 6-2 in the Big Sky, while the Mustangs were 5-3. Now, due to unbalanced league schedules, Cal Poly played a slightly tougher slate than the Wildcats (and it also had a good non-conference win over South Dakota State). On the other hand, Weber State beat Cal Poly during the season.

You could argue that if every team in the tournament were seeded, Cal Poly might deserve a slightly higher seed than Weber State. If so, both teams would probably be seeded in the 17-20 range.

If that happened, each would play first-round road games against similarly-rated opponents. Instead, we have the current geographical setup and the “400 miles” bus/flight cutoff point.

Thus, Cal Poly plays a home game against San Diego of the non-scholarship Pioneer League, a team the Mustangs already defeated earlier this season 38-16. Meanwhile, Weber State travels almost 1,800 miles to play at Chattanooga, a solid SoCon squad that acquitted itself well last week against Alabama.

The decision to make Lehigh travel to New Hampshire also seems problematic to me; if anything, it should be the other way around. Again, however, cash is king in this tournament — though a few folks in Las Vegas are apparently putting their hard-earned money on Lehigh (which is a 4 1/2 point favorite despite having to go on the road).

—

Final “toughest schedule” numbers from the NCAA for Jacksonville State, James Madison, Sam Houston State, and The Citadel:

The Citadel: 19th
James Madison: 57th
Jacksonville State: 80th
Sam Houston State: 102nd

All four finished undefeated against non-FBS competition. SHSU, which was 11-0, did not play an FBS opponent, while the other three schools were all 10-1, with each losing to an FBS team from a power conference.

The committee decided to give Jacksonville State the highest seed out of this group. Did it help Jacksonville State that it made the finals last year? Probably. Did it help Jacksonville State that its director of athletics was on the committee? It couldn’t have hurt.

What it means is that if The Citadel is fortunate enough to advance to the quarterfinals, and its opponent is Jacksonville State, the Bulldogs will be the road team. It is not evident why that should be the case.

—

Another seeding oddity, in my opinion, was North Dakota being the #7 seed and South Dakota State being the #8. I’m not sure why the Jackrabbits would have been behind UND.

Because the committee seeded those teams in that way, SDSU has a potential rematch with North Dakota State in the quarterfinals. I don’t have a problem with regular-season rematches once teams advance to the quarterfinals, but it seems to me the committee had an easy opportunity to avoid that situation, and in a perfectly justifiable way.

—

Per at least one source that deals in such matters, here are the lines for the eight first-round games, as of Tuesday afternoon:

Wofford is a 1.5-point favorite over Charleston Southern, over/under of 51.5
Chattanooga is a 15-point favorite over Weber State, over/under of 51.5
Lehigh is a 4.5-point favorite at New Hampshire, over/under of 63.5
Richmond is a 13-point favorite over North Carolina A&T, over/under of 53.5
Illinois State is a 1.5-point favorite at Central Arkansas, over/under of 49.5
Youngstown State is an 8.5-point favorite over Samford, over/under of 50.5
Cal Poly is a 12.5-point favorite over San Diego, over/under of 65.5
Villanova is a 14.5-point favorite over St. Francis (PA), over/under of 37.5

As you can see, there are two road favorites (Lehigh and Illinois State).

—

Massey Ratings predicted scores for this Saturday:

Wofford 26, Charleston Southern 24
Chattanooga 31, Weber State 19
Lehigh 33, New Hampshire 28
Richmond 36, North Carolina A&T 24
Central Arkansas 23, Illinois State 21
Youngstown State 28, Samford 20
Cal Poly 35, San Diego 29
Villanova 21, St. Francis (PA) 7

—

I’m not pleased with how the tournament was constructed. However, there is nothing that can be done about it, at least not for this season. All eyes will now be following the action on the gridiron.

If you’re in the field, you have a chance. That’s the bottom line.

Filed under: Football | Tagged: Albany, Brian Hutchinson, Cal Poly, Central Arkansas, Charleston Southern, Chattanooga, FCS playoffs, Illinois State, Jacksonville State, James Madison, Lehigh, New Hampshire, North Carolina A&T, North Dakota, North Dakota State, Richmond, Sam Houston State, Samford, San Diego, South Dakota State, St. Francis (PA), The Citadel, Villanova, Weber State, Wofford, Youngstown State | Leave a comment »

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