Nothing is collegiate about college athletics

Posted on September 4, 2023 by Sandlapper Spike

collegiate, adjective & noun: of or belonging to a college.

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Future conference games in FBS football over the next three to four years will include the following:

UCLA-Rutgers
Oregon-Northwestern
Southern California-Maryland
Washington-Purdue
Virginia Tech-Stanford
California-Miami (FL)
SMU-Boston College
Oklahoma-Vanderbilt
Texas-Kentucky
UTEP-Kennesaw State
Utah-West Virginia
Colorado-UCF

That doesn’t even include some of the ridiculous matchups that have been league games for a while now, like West Virginia-Texas Tech. Already, we have somehow become acclimated to this kind of stupidity.

On Friday, the ACC announced it was expanding again, this time adding Stanford, California, and SMU. USA Today columnist Dan Wolken very reasonably described the move as a “Ponzi scheme“. 

However, in these times a Ponzi scheme can be considered necessary for a college athletics conference to survive. Pat Forde of Sports Illustrated put it this way:

Viewed in a vacuum, the idea of California schools joining an East Coast conference is entirely nonsensical. But College Sports Inc. left the common-sense vacuum last year when USC and UCLA bailed for the Big Ten, then doubled down on it this summer with Oregon and Washington doing the same. We aren’t going back.

In other words, common sense no longer applies — which is why the Pac-12 is now the Pac-2. 

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One of the more curious aspects of the ACC expansion is that SMU is essentially paying to join the league; the school will not receive media rights money from the conference for its first nine years of membership. That’s how desperate SMU’s administration and big-time boosters were to become members of a power conference, even a power conference that isn’t the SEC or Big 10.

SMU will become eligible for media payments after nine years, but the ACC’s deal with ESPN expires in 2036. There is a very good chance the conference won’t exist (at least in its current form) beyond that year. I can only assume that SMU is simply trying to position itself for a seat at the table in the next and presumably final round of conference realignment, the inevitable creation of the ‘Superleague’.

If SMU is willing to essentially join a league for free just to get in the same room with the big boys, then the next thing that could happen is a school paying to join a conference. The ACC has 18 schools now (including Notre Dame); why not an even 20?

I would not be surprised if Liberty, which is absolutely flush with cash at the moment, were to wind up in the ACC (or the Big XII). For those who think such a notion is completely ridiculous, perhaps it is — but what about the last few years in the big-picture world of college sports hasn’t been completely ridiculous?

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After all, at this point everything is on the table, at least in terms of money. Florida State, which can’t wait to get out of the ACC but is currently stuck in the league thanks mostly because of the Grant of Rights agreement between the members, is considering private equity investment in its athletics program:

Florida State University is working with JPMorgan Chase to explore how the school’s athletic department could raise capital from institutional funds, such as private equity, according to multiple people familiar with the plans.

PE giant Sixth Street is in advanced talks to lead a possible investment, said the people, who were granted anonymity because the specifics are private. Institutional money has poured into professional sports in recent years, from the NBA and global soccer to F1 and golf, but this would break new ground by entering the multibillion-dollar world of college athletic departments.

It doesn’t have to be private equity, either, based on what is happening in professional golf and European soccer. Perhaps the sovereign wealth fund of the Saudi Arabian government (known as “PIF”) could invest in Florida State athletics and help the school exit the ACC.

Two or three home football games each season might be moved to Riyadh. The team could wear green alternate jerseys with ‘SAUDINOLES’ across the front. All in all, it would presumably be a small price to pay in order to avoid playing Virginia or Wake Forest.

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It might come as a surprise to some, but the Superleague isn’t really a 21st-century notion. Variations of the concept have been bandied about since at least the late 1950s, after the dissolution of the major west coast conference of the time, the Pacific Coast Conference. The most well-known version of that era was the so-called ‘Airplane Conference’, an idea championed by respected athletics administrator Tom Hamilton, which would have included Air Force, Army, California, Navy, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Penn State, Southern California, Stanford, Syracuse, UCLA, and Washington.

Other schools were reportedly in the mix as well, including Duke, Georgia Tech, and Penn, just to name a few. The participation of the service academies was ultimately vetoed by officials at the Pentagon, however, and then a new west coast league was created (which would become the Pac-5/8/10/12). That put an end to the Airplane Conference before it could take flight.

Well, now the nation’s major west coast conference has been decimated again, but this time the Pentagon is unlikely to be a factor in what comes next.

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The modern version of the Superleague might form around the time the current TV contracts for the Big 10 and SEC expire (at the end of the 2029-2030 and 2033-2034 seasons, respectively). There has been occasional discussion about schools like Vanderbilt and Northwestern eventually getting kicked out of those two leagues, but what could happen instead is that the ‘big brands’ in each league simply leave the conferences to join a new entity, which will be the Superleague (undoubtedly to be called by a sponsor name).

As Dennis Dodd wrote last month:

The conversation — a notably preliminary one — took place in December 2022. Around a table were venture capitalists and private equity types. The super-rich don’t get that way sitting on their assets. They plan. They innovate. They create change; they don’t wait for it.

So, at some point in the conversation, the question was posed: What would it take to “buy” a conference, invest at the base level of college athletics itself?

After some noodling, they agreed: $1 billion.

There’s even a conference out there that would be available. You haven’t heard of it. Nobody has.

It resides in the mind of media consultant Patrick Crakes. He was the one speaking with those investors who are beginning to see great potential in reshaping college athletics.

“Take $1 billion and roll up all the best teams into a new conference,” said Crakes, who spent a quarter century as an executive at Fox Sports…

…Since pursuit of this story began, CBS Sports has learned that at least one major private equity firm has shown interest in funding a conference structure.

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How will all of this eventually affect smaller college sports programs, like the one at The Citadel?

It’s hard to tell right now, although the end result almost certainly won’t be positive.

I don’t think there is much question that the days of football “money games” for the Bulldogs against Power 5 programs will be coming to an end in the near future, at least for significant monetary payouts. 

If The Citadel is playing a school like South Carolina after 2035 or so, it’s because South Carolina didn’t make the cut and isn’t in the Superleague — and if that is the case, then there isn’t going to be much money for the Gamecocks to hand out. Heck, the schools might wind up playing a home-and-home or a 2-for-1.

(Side note: South Carolina would probably be on the outside looking in for the Superleague, unless that entity consisted of at least 40 schools. My guess is that the number will ultimately be in the 20-36 range.)

Money from the NCAA basketball tournament could also be scarce, if the big-brand schools decide to leave the NCAA in that sport as well. I’m not as sure about that happening (there are multiple complicating factors), but it is a possibility. 

Of course, cash isn’t everything, and if after the dust settles The Citadel were to wind up in an all-sports conference with like-minded schools, similar to the situation that now exists in the Southern Conference, that would be fine. The college has managed to navigate an ever-changing NCAA landscape for decades as it is.

That’s why the school shouldn’t do anything dramatic right now, because nobody really knows what the future will look like, or what adjustments (if any) The Citadel will have to make because of the new world order in college sports.

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I find the current state of college athletics to be rather depressing. I still mostly enjoy the games, but everything else is a total mess. The future doesn’t look good, either.

I’ll keep hoping for the best, though.

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Gridiron Countdown: a quick update on attendance at Johnson Hagood Stadium

Posted on August 24, 2015 by Sandlapper Spike

Also in the “Gridiron Countdown” series:

Preseason ratings, featuring The Citadel (and the rest of the SoCon)

What teams will the Bulldogs’ opponents play before facing The Citadel?

The Citadel competes to win games — and fans

The Citadel’s run/pass tendencies, per-play averages, 4th-down decision-making, and more

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Recent links of interest:

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This post is really just a quick update on attendance. Last year, I created a spreadsheet that included attendance figures at Johnson Hagood Stadium since the 1964 season (attendance totals prior to that season are difficult to find and/or occasionally suspect).

I’ve updated the spreadsheet to include the 2014 attendance totals at JHS. You can access the spreadsheet at this link:

Attendance at Johnson Hagood Stadium, 1964-2014

The spreadsheet lists year-by-year total and average game attendance, and the win/loss record for the team in each given season. There is also a category ranking the years by average attendance.

Other columns refer to the program’s winning percentage over a two-year, three-year, five-year, and ten-year period, with the “current” season being the final year in each category. For example, the three-year winning percentage for 1992 is made up of the 1990, 1991, and 1992 seasons.

I listed those categories primarily to see what impact constant winning (or losing) has on long-term attendance trends. My findings were not clear-cut, to be honest.

As I noted last year, the numbers seemed to suggest that a good season tends to drive walk-up sales more than might be expected, particularly compared to season ticket sales for the following campaign. It is also true that due to The Citadel’s struggles on the gridiron over the last two decades, it is hard to draw hard-and-fast conclusions about what the school’s attendance goals should actually be in this day and age.

Let me explain what I mean by that.

Since 1964, The Citadel’s record at Johnson Hagood Stadium is 176-109, for a winning percentage of 61.75%. The program’s record at home since 1993, the season after the Bulldogs won the SoCon title, is 67-55 (54.91%).

Of course, that only tells part of the story. The Citadel’s overall record from 1964 through the 1992 season was 159-155-3. That’s a 29-year period of basically being a .500 program.

In the 22 years since, the Bulldogs have an overall record of 95-150 (winning percentage: 39.58%). The road record during that stretch is a horrific 28-95.

If the football program had continued to break even in wins and losses over the past two decades, would attendance in those years have been significantly better? I think it obviously would have, though I also believe there still would have been a dropoff, due to a lot of factors beyond The Citadel’s control (the exponential increase in televised college football games being the #1 issue).

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Since 1964, over 4,000,000 fans have watched football games at Johnson Hagood Stadium. The average attendance over that period is 14,233 per game.

The last time The Citadel averaged that many fans per game over the course of a season, however, was 2006. Last year’s average (9,505) was the lowest in 51 years.

That has to improve dramatically, and in a hurry. However, it’s worth putting The Citadel’s attendance in perspective.

If you follow college athletics, you are probably aware that the Sun Belt is considering expanding. Two of the candidates to get a berth in that league are Eastern Kentucky and Coastal Carolina.

These are two schools that want to move up to the FBS ranks. They are ambitious. They want to be “big time”. And yet…

The Citadel, in its worst season for home attendance since at least 1963, still had higher average attendance than both EKU and Coastal Carolina last year.

Think about that.

The Citadel isn’t interested in a Sun Belt invite, though. If the Pac-12 were to call, maybe the military college would consider the offer. Maybe.

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Less than two weeks to go…

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Conference Realignment — Back to the Future?

Posted on September 20, 2011 by Sandlapper Spike

Admittedly, there have already been a few billion words wasted on the subject of conference realignment, but I’ll throw in a few comments about the subject as well…

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There is some discussion about a merger of sorts between Conference USA and the Mountain West.  This would create a confederation of (at least) 22 teams, which sounds ridiculous.  It would not be unprecedented, however.

The Southern Conference formed in 1921, with 14 original members.  Those schools: Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Kentucky, Maryland, Mississippi State, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Tennessee, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Washington & Lee.  Six schools joined shortly thereafter:  LSU, Florida, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tulane, and Vanderbilt.  By 1931, Duke, Sewanee, and VMI had become members.

That’s right.  One major conference, 23 member schools.  It was an unwieldy amalgamation, and destined for a breakup.  It wouldn’t be the last time a league split into pieces because it got too big.

Tangent:  It really wasn’t the first time, either.  The SoCon itself was a product of a split, as those 14 original schools were breaking away from the Southern Intercollegiate Athletic Association, which by 1921 had 30 members.

In December of 1932, 13 of the SoCon schools left to form the Southeastern Conference:  Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech, Sewanee, and Tulane.  The final three schools listed would eventually leave the SEC, with Sewanee departing in 1940 after eight years in the league; the Tigers had played 37 conference football games and lost all 37 of them.

Now the SEC has 12 schools (with Arkansas and South Carolina added in the early 1990s) and is poised to add a 13th, Texas A&M.  Conference commissioner Mike Slive has stated that the league can stay at 13 members for the time being, and why not — it was a 13-school league for the first eight years of its history.

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There has been a lot of talk about BCS “superconferences” with 16 schools.  It wasn’t that long ago that there was a Division I league with 16 members — the Western Athletic Conference (WAC), which expanded from 10 to 16 schools in 1996.  This proved to be a mistake, as several of the “old guard” WAC schools did not like the new setup.  After three years, the 16-school league was a memory, as eight members left to form the Mountain West.

Eleven of the schools that were in the sixteen-member WAC are now in either the Mountain West or C-USA.  I wonder what they think about possibly becoming part of a 22-school association…

Another one of the “WAC 16”, TCU, was set to become the Big East’s 17th member next year (10 for football, all for hoops).  Now that league will be losing at least two of its schools, Pittsburgh and Syracuse.

There are a lot of reasons why the Big East is in trouble, but trying to satisfy the agendas of so many different institutions is surely one of them.  That’s one reason I was surprised when Brett McMurphy of CBSSports.com reported that the Big East had considered adding Navy and possibly Air Force to its roster (as football-only members) prior to the sudden departures of Pitt and Syracuse.

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Random thoughts:

— If a school isn’t sure which conference it should join, maybe it can join two at once, like Iowa, which was a member of both the Big 10 and the Big 8 from 1907 to 1911.

— If your conference ceases to exist, like the Southwest Conference, that might be sad.  It could be worse, though.  Phillips University, which was a member of the SWC for one year (1920), closed up shop in 1998, two years after the league in which it was once briefly a member met its demise.

— It’s sometimes instructive (and occasionally amusing) to look back at what schools were once members of various leagues.  I’ve already mentioned original SEC member Sewanee.  The Big 10 once included the University of Chicago (and that school is still a member of the conference’s academic consortium, the Committee on Institutional Cooperation).

Southwestern University was a charter member of the SWC.  Washington University (MO) was an original member of the Big 8, which also featured for a time Drake and Grinnell College.  The league now known as the Pac-12 once had both Idaho and Montana as members.

— Then there are schools like West Virginia, a BCS school (for the moment, anyway) that until 1968 was a member of the Southern Conference.  Virginia Tech was a SoCon stalwart for four decades, leaving in 1965.

Rutgers has gone from being one of the “middle three” with Lafayette and Lehigh, and a historic rivalry with Princeton, to big-time athletics in the Big East; now it is searching for a way to ensure it continues to hold its place in that sphere as its conference appears on the verge of collapse.  Another Big East school, South Florida, did not hold its first classes until 1960 and did not field a football team until 1997 (history records that the Bulls’ first loss on the gridiron came at the hands of The Citadel, at Johnson Hagood Stadium).

The University of Arizona started playing football in 1899, before Arizona was even a state.  Arizona (the school) and Arizona State were members of the Border Conference, which included Hardin-Simmons and West Texas A&M, and then left that league to join the WAC (long before the 16-member WAC) before becoming members of the renamed Pac-10.

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The history of conference realignment is that leagues have been transient by nature, as the fortunes on and off the field of the various schools have ebbed and flowed.  In 1899 no one would have dreamed that the state of Arizona would have a population boom thanks (in part) to air conditioning, so that by the end of the century that state’s universities would be much larger than anyone would have anticipated one hundred years before.  There are a lot of stories like the Arizona schools and South Florida, and a few on the other side as well (like poor Phillips).

In other words, trying to anticipate how things will shake out can be dicey at best. Even as I type this, my twitter feed has exploded with the news that the Pac-12 (which was once the Pac-10, and before that the Pac-8, and before that the AAWU, and before that the PCC) has decided not to expand, for now.

We’ll see how long that lasts.

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