College baseball bubble, 5/29

Posted on May 29, 2010 by Sandlapper Spike

Just a quick update…for the breakdown prior to conference tournament play, see this post:  Link

The Saturday morning report, with changes noted from what I wrote in midweek:

– Locks (36):  Louisville, Connecticut, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Miami, Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Coastal Carolina, Cal State Fullerton, Rice, TCU, Arizona State, UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, Florida, South Carolina, Auburn, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Mississippi, Alabama, LSU, College of Charleston, Florida Atlantic, Louisiana-Lafayette, Kansas State, UC Irvine, The Citadel, New Mexico, Stanford, Baylor

Change: Six teams that were not locks earlier in the week are now:  Kansas State, UC Irvine, The Citadel, New Mexico, Stanford, and Baylor.

– Champions from “one-bid” leagues:  15

Congratulations to Stony Brook and Rider for clinching automatic bids on Friday out of the America East and MAAC, respectively.

— Champions from leagues likely to get just one bid, but that do have bubble teams (but no locks):  4 (the leagues in question are the A-Sun, Big 10, MVC, and Southland)

Change: Florida Gulf Coast did lose in its tournament.

—

That means 55 spots are taken, with 9 still to go.

— Florida Gulf Coast University’s loss in the Atlantic Sun tournament will hurt, but it may still draw an at-large bid, making the A-Sun a two-bid league.  Could be close for the Eagles.

— The Big 10 is not likely to be a two-bid league.  Minnesota is in the driver’s seat for the auto bid.  I won’t completely discount this league getting a second team (Michigan), only because it’s the Big 10, and not because it deserves one.

— Wichita State is in the final of the MVC tournament and plays Illinois State for the title on Saturday.  The Shockers could lose today and still get in the NCAAs, but I tend to doubt it.

— Texas State is still alive in the bloodbath that has been the Southland tournament.  Could Texas State get an at-large bid, if needed?  Possibly.  Like FGCU, it would be a close call.

— The Big East has two locks and likely will get a third team in the field.  That team would have been Pittsburgh, but the Panthers went 1-2 in the tourney.  Also, St. John’s could steal a bid.  If the Johnnies win the tournament, is this a 4-bid league?

— Results in the Pac-10 on Friday broke almost perfectly for that league getting 8 teams in the field.  Stanford locked up a bid, and there were big wins for Oregon State and California.  Washington also won, but I think the Huskies are the ninth team and will not make it.  Oregon State and Cal both probably need one more win.  Arizona is still in good shape, but the Wildcats need to beat the Beavers at least once during the weekend to feel 100% secure.

— The Big XII is going to be a five-bid league.  It also has four completely meaningless games in its tournament today, thanks to the wonder that is pool play.

— The Southern Conference will be at least a three-bid league.  Elon should be that third team, despite losing a fight and a game on Thursday.  The Phoenix can still win the SoCon tourney, but if Elon doesn’t and either Western Carolina or Appalachian State does, I’m not sure the committee is taking four teams from this league.  The Citadel and the College of Charleston will be in the field of 64.

— Southern Mississippi plays Rice in the C-USA title game on Saturday, and the Golden Eagles probably have to win that game to get a bid.

— Liberty is still alive in the Big South tournament, but with more conference tourney upsets looming, it looks like the Flames must win that tourney to snatch a bid.  That will be a tall order, as Liberty will have to beat High Point once and Coastal Carolina twice.

— The Sun Belt could become a three-bid league if a team other than Florida Atlantic wins its tournament.  Either Arkansas State or Troy will be in the final, and FAU has to beat Florida International to get to the other side of the title matchup.  It would be interesting to see Garrett Wittels continue his hit streak in the NCAAs, but I think FIU has to win the SB tourney to make it.  Of course, they may just do that.

— Boston College is probably out of the mix for an at-large after going 1-2 in the ACC tourney (a result that helps North Carolina).  North Carolina State beat Clemson in its opener and probably needs one more win to feel good about its chances.  At this point, I think the Wolfpack might need that win only to further differentiate itself from BC.

— I still think the SEC will get 8 bids.  Kentucky is still in the mix, but I just don’t see it.  I wouldn’t be shocked if Kentucky’s name popped up on the selection show, though.

So, there are nine spots to fill.  As of Saturday morning, I think they might go like this:

Arizona, North Carolina, Oregon State, FGCU, Pittsburgh, North Carolina State, California, Elon, Liberty

Still alive:  Texas State (if needed), Southern Mississippi, Washington, Michigan, Boston College, Wichita State (if needed), Kentucky

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C-I-T…wait, you mean this isn’t about the chant?

Posted on March 16, 2009 by Sandlapper Spike

For the first time in this or any other century, The Citadel’s basketball team will be playing at least one game beyond the conference tournament.  It’s not the NCAA tournament, or the NIT, or even the CBI (although it may be more respectable than the CBI, quite honestly), but the CIT.  The CIT?

That’s right, the CIT.  It’s the CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament, to be precise.  It’s been around for quite a while…since January!

The teams participating all hail from non-power conferences, which isn’t a bad thing, in the sense that for most of them, this tournament will be seen as worthwhile.  Also, unlike the CBI, every team in the field has a winning record (Oregon State got a bid to the CBI with a 13-17 record).

As you might imagine, the CIT has been rather hastily put together, as demonstrated by the scheduling of The Citadel’s opening-round game, against Old Dominion.  ODU is hosting the game, which was originally slated for Wednesday night.  Then it was apparently discovered that another commitment precluded the use of ODU’s arena on that day, so the game was quickly moved to Tuesday, but that posed a series of problems for The Citadel (mostly revolving around travel issues, from what I understand).  It is now going to be played on Thursday night, at 7 pm.  Luckily, there isn’t any other sporting event of national interest taking place on that day and night…

Old Dominion is one of three schools to have played in the NCAA, NIT, CBI, and CIT tournaments (along with Rider and Bradley).  The Monarchs have played in the NCAA tournament nine times since joining Division I in 1976, winning twice.  The second of those two victories was a memorable triple-overtime upset of 3-seed Villanova in 1995.  ODU played in the NCAAs as recently as two seasons ago, losing to Butler in the first round.

In other words, this is a school with a recent tradition of success in hoops, including four 20-win seasons in the last five years.  This season the Monarchs were 21-10 while playing in the rugged Colonial Athletic Association.  It finished 12-6 in conference action before losing to conference champ Virginia Commonwealth in the CAA tourney semifinals.  That was the third time the two teams had met during the season, with the home team winning the first two games.  The Rams are the only common opponent for ODU and The Citadel, which lost at VCU 82-59 early in the season.

Old Dominion and The Citadel play at a similar pace (the Monarchs actually average fewer possessions per game than the Bulldogs), so this is not likely to be a track meet.  ODU features 6’10” center Gerald Lee, a first-team All-CAA selection who averages 15.7 points and 5.6 rebounds per game.  Lee was born and raised in Finland (his father is an American who moved to Finland to play pro basketball, explaining his American-sounding name).  I look forward to listening to Darren Goldwater as he attempts to pronounce Lee’s hometown.  Lee will be a difficult matchup for The Citadel.  ODU has a lot of size in general.  Eight different players average 16 minutes or more for the Monarchs.

ODU has solid stats across the board, including an excellent turnover rate, and generally good defensive numbers.  The Monarchs do not shoot the ball particularly well from outside, and are a poor free throw shooting team (63.8%).

This is going to be a tough game for The Citadel.  It will be interesting to see how motivated each team will be for the game.  If the Bulldogs can contain Lee and shoot the ball well from three-point land, they have a shot.  It will be a tall order, though.

Still, just the opportunity to have a tall order to fill is something to enjoy.

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