Inside the numbers: The Citadel’s 2015 run/pass tendencies, per-play averages, 4th-down decision-making…and more!

Posted on July 26, 2016 by Sandlapper Spike

A few other football-related posts from recent weeks:

Updating history: Attendance at Johnson Hagood Stadium, 1964-2015

What teams will the Bulldogs’ opponents play before (and after) facing The Citadel?

Preseason football ratings and rankings, featuring The Citadel (and the rest of the SoCon)

Also, of course, there are the much-discussed TSA “watch lists” for the upcoming league campaign. See if your favorite SoCon football player (or coach) made one of the lists!

TSA watch lists for the SoCon — Offense
TSA watch lists for the SoCon — Defense
TSA watch lists for the SoCon — Special Teams
TSA watch list for the SoCon — Coach of the Year

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For the past two years, I have written about tendencies in playcalling by the then-coach of the Bulldogs, Mike Houston (and his offensive coordinator, Brent Thompson, who of course is now The Citadel’s head coach). I compared what Houston had done while at Lenoir-Rhyne to Kevin Higgins’ last two seasons at The Citadel, along with Houston’s initial season at The Citadel in 2014.

Now I’m going to take a look at what Houston and Thompson did last year at The Citadel, and contrast some of those statistics with those from the 2014 season for the Bulldogs, along with the 2013 campaign under Higgins. I decided not to include 2013 Lenoir-Rhyne stats in my comparison this time, though if anyone wants to see those numbers, they are contained in my previous posts on the subject.

My focus is on down-and-distance run/pass tendencies, fourth-down decision-making, situational punting, and assorted other statistical comparisons. This year, I also took a look at the coin toss (?!), after spotting a trend late last season.

Almost all of the statistics that follow are based on conference play, and only conference play. It’s easier and fairer to compare numbers in that way. Ultimately, The Citadel’s on-field success or failure will be judged on how it does in the SoCon, not against the likes of North Greenville or North Carolina (though beating South Carolina in non-conference action is always a plus).

The conference slates looked like this:

  • The Citadel played seven games in 2015 against SoCon teams. The conference schools competing on the gridiron last year: Western Carolina, Wofford, Samford, Furman, Mercer, VMI, and Chattanooga.
  • The Bulldogs played seven games in 2014 versus SoCon opposition. The teams in the league last year were the same as the 2015 opponents: Wofford, Western Carolina, Chattanooga, Mercer, Furman, Samford, and VMI.
  • The Citadel played eight games in 2013 against SoCon foes. As a reminder, those opponents were: Wofford, Western Carolina, Furman, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Chattanooga, Samford, and Elon.

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Oh, before I forget: this year, I put most of the numbers on a spreadsheet. It’s a bit involved (there are seven different sub-sheets), but if anyone wants to peruse the numbers, go for it. Individual game statistics in various categories are included.

I’m fairly confident in the accuracy of the statistics, though I will admit that averaging the time of possession numbers gave me a bad headache. I may be off by a second or two on the quarterly TOP averages. If so, it’s too bad — no refunds are available.

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Some definitions:

– 2nd-and-short: 3 yards or less for a first down
– 2nd-and-medium: 4 to 6 yards for a first down
– 2nd-and-long: 7+ yards for a first down
– 3rd-and-short: 2 yards or less for a first down
– 3rd-and-medium: 3 to 4 yards for a first down
– 3rd-and-long: 5+ yards for a first down

The first number that will follow each down-and-distance category will be the percentage of time The Citadel ran the ball in that situation in 2015. Next to that, in parenthesis, is the run percentage for The Citadel in 2014, and that will be followed by the Bulldogs’ run percentage for that situation in 2013 (which will be in brackets).

For example, when it came to running the ball on first down, the numbers looked like this:

– 1st-and-10 (or goal to go): 89.1% (88.9%) [77.1%]

Thus, The Citadel ran the ball on first down 89.1% of the time last year, while the Bulldogs ran the ball in that situation 88.9% of the time in 2014 (basically, there was no difference). The Citadel ran the ball 77.1% of the time on first down during its 2013 campaign.

Overall, the Bulldogs ran the ball 86.5% of the time, after rushing on 84.3% of all offensive plays in 2014.

Here are the rest of the down-and-distance categories (in terms of rush percentage):

– 2nd-and-short: 89.2% (84.0%) [95.8%]
– 2nd-and-medium: 89.8% (90.2%) [87.8%]
– 2nd-and-long: 89.2% (82.2%) [75.0%]
– 3rd-and-short: 93.1% (95.5%) [85.7%]
– 3rd-and-medium: 82.4% (90.3%) [90.9%]
– 3rd-and-long: 66.0% (57.4%) [54.0%]

A caveat to these numbers is that there were a few called pass plays that turned into runs. However, if the result of a play was a sack, that counted as a passing down even if a pass wasn’t thrown. There were four such plays in conference action in 2015 for The Citadel.

When compiling NCAA statistics, lost yardage on sacks counts against rushing totals, which may strike the casual observer as counter-intuitive. The NFL, on the other hand, considers sack yardage as passing yardage lost.

I don’t think there is a lot to be surprised about in those numbers, not for anyone who has watched a Brent Thompson offense over the last few years. It is true that the Bulldogs’ passing percentage on 3rd-and-medium is slightly higher than one might expect, but we’re only talking about three pass attempts on seventeen such down/distance situations; subtract one pass attempt, and the average would have been almost exactly the same as it was the previous two seasons.

There were three games in which the Bulldogs threw the ball a bit more often than normal on third-and-long: Wofford, Furman, and Chattanooga.

The Citadel was 4 for 6 passing versus Wofford on 3rd-and-long for 41 yards, including a 24-yard completion. At Furman, the Bulldogs were 1 for 2 (and also suffered a sack).

However, the one completion on third-and-long against the Paladins was a big one, a 50-yard pass from Dominique Allen to Reggie Williams that set up a TD. It was probably the biggest play of the game.

In the game versus Chattanooga, The Citadel was 2-3 for 20 yards (and a sack) on third-and-long. Trailing throughout the contest undoubtedly had an effect on the play-calling.

Prior to the 2015 season, I wrote:

[In 2014], The Citadel attempted four passes on 2nd-and-short. The first three of them fell incomplete.

In the season finale at VMI, however, the Bulldogs did complete a 2nd-and-short toss, a Miller connection (Aaron to Vinny) that went for 26 yards and set up a field goal to close out the first half of that contest. Upstairs in the Foster Stadium press box, Brent Thompson undoubtedly heaved a sigh of relief after calling his first successful 2nd/3rd-and-short pass play in league action in almost two years.

On a serious note, The Citadel has to convert at a higher rate when it passes the ball in 2nd- and 3rd-and-short situations. The offense must take advantage of having the element of surprise in its favor.

Well, The Citadel attempted four passes on 2nd-and-short in 2015, too. The results? An interception, a 36-yard gainer that led to a touchdown, a 24-yard TD strike, and a 22-yard completion.

Not bad. The pick came in the red zone, though. I guess you can’t have everything.

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– The Citadel’s offense in 2013 in SoCon action: 69.6 plays per game, 12.0 possessions per game
– The Citadel’s offense in 2014 in SoCon action: 75.4 plays per game, 11.0 possessions per game*
– The Citadel’s offense in 2015 in SoCon action: 70.7 plays per game, 11.9 possessions per game**

*This does not include the Bulldogs’ overtime possession against Furman

**I don’t count a drive as an actual possession when it consists solely of a defensive TD via a return, or when it is a defensive turnover that ends the half or game (or both, like Tevin Floyd’s pick-six against VMI). I also don’t count a drive as a possession when the offensive team does not attempt to move the ball forward (such as a kneel-down situation). That’s how I interpret the statistic, regardless of how it may be listed in a game summary.

The Citadel had a time of possession edge in SoCon play of almost four and a half minutes (32:13 – 27:47). That was actually slightly less of a TOP edge than the Bulldogs had in 2014 (32:40 – 27:20).

The offense generally took control of the ball, however, as games progressed. Average time of possession for The Citadel, by period: 6:59 (1st quarter), 7:47 (2nd), 8:31 (3rd), 8:56 (4th).

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– The Citadel’s offense in 2013 in SoCon action: 5.41 yards per play, including 5.13 yards per rush and 6.4 yards per pass attempt
– The Citadel’s offense in 2014 in SoCon games: 5.56 yards per play, including 5.35 yards per rush and 6.8 yards per pass attempt
– The Citadel’s offense in 2015 in SoCon games: 6.09 yards per play, including 5.57 yards per rush and 9.7 (!) yards per pass attempt

The Bulldogs’ offense improved in all three per-play categories listed above for a second consecutive season. Last year, I suggested a benchmark:

I think the goal going forward might be for yards per rush to exceed 5.75, and for yards per pass attempt to exceed 8.0 (or at least 7.5).

Mission accomplished, especially those yards per pass attempt. The Citadel threw 63 passes in seven SoCon games, and gained 609 total yards passing. Three of those tosses were intercepted, which is not a terrible ratio.

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How did the yards per play numbers for the defense shake out? Quite nicely, thank you very much:

– The Citadel’s defense in 2013 in SoCon action: 5.47 yards per play, including 4.39 yards per rush and 7.2 yards per pass attempt
– The Citadel’s defense in 2014 in SoCon action: 7.02 yards per play, including 5.69 yards per rush and 9.1 yards per pass attempt
– The Citadel’s defense in 2015 in SoCon action: 5.07 yards per play, including 3.69 yards per rush and 6.7 yards per pass attempt

That will work. After a less-than-stellar 2014 campaign, the defense improved markedly last year. Check out that yards per rush allowed stat — exactly two yards less per play from one year to the next. The defense against the pass was excellent, too.

In 2014, The Citadel allowed more than seven yards per rush in four of seven league contests. In 2015, the Bulldogs allowed fewer than three yards per rush in four of seven conference games. It helped that The Citadel averaged 4.3 tackles for loss (not including sacks) per game in SoCon action.

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– The Citadel’s defense in 2013 in SoCon action: 12 sacks, 26 passes defensed in 204 attempts (12.7% PD)
– The Citadel’s defense in 2014 in SoCon action: 8 sacks, 14 passes defensed in 176 pass attempts (8.0% PD)
– The Citadel’s defense in 2015 in SoCon action: 20 sacks, 33 passes defensed in 212 pass attempts (15.6% PD)

Passes defensed is a statistic that combines pass breakups with interceptions.

After a trying season in 2014, everything worked well for the defense in 2015. I don’t think it is too surprising that the PD numbers improved with an increase in sacks, and the Bulldogs were harassing opposing quarterbacks even when they weren’t sacking them (increasing their “hurries” totals in league play from eleven to seventeen).

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Big plays! Big plays! Big plays! Big plays! Big plays!

In seven conference games in 2014, The Citadel’s defense allowed 47 plays from scrimmage of 20 yards or more — 21 rushes and 26 pass plays. In 2015, that number dropped to 23, nine rushes and fourteen pass plays.

That’s a huge improvement, obviously. It isn’t exactly a shock that big plays lead to points, either directly or later in the drive. Preventing those long gainers is a key to keeping teams off the scoreboard.

For example, of those 23 big plays allowed by the Bulldogs, 14 led to touchdowns (either on the play itself, or later on the same drive). That’s 60.1% of the time.

That percentage is actually lower than what SoCon opponents allowed against The Citadel’s offense on big plays, however. In league action, the Bulldogs had 30 plays of 20 yards or more on offense last year (19 on the ground, 11 in the air). Twenty of those thirty plays led directly or indirectly to touchdowns (66.7%).

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– The Citadel’s offensive 3rd-down conversion rate in SoCon action, 2014: 46.3%
– The Citadel’s offensive 3rd-down conversion rate in SoCon action, 2015: 50.0%

– The Citadel’s defensive 3rd-down conversion rate in SoCon action, 2014: 41.5%
– The Citadel’s defensive 3rd-down conversion rate in SoCon action, 2015: 33.7%

In all games last season, the Bulldogs had an offensive 3rd-down conversion rate of 49.4% (second-best to Chattanooga among SoCon squads), and a defensive 3rd-down conversion rate of 36.5% (which was the best mark among league teams).

The Citadel was 3 for 8 on 4th down in conference play (37.5%). In this case, the percentage may not be as significant a story as are the total attempts. In 2014, the Bulldogs had twenty 4th-down tries in SoCon games, converting twelve (60%).

League opponents were 8 for 13 (61.5%) on 4th down against the Bulldogs last year. It’s definitely a small sample size, but it wouldn’t hurt the defense to knock that percentage down a bit in 2016.

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First known football usage of “red zone” in print, per Merriam-Webster: 1983.

First known claim that the red zone does not in fact exist: 2013.

– The Citadel’s offensive Red Zone touchdown rate in SoCon action, 2013: 60.0%
– The Citadel’s offensive Red Zone touchdown rate in SoCon action, 2014: 66.7%
– The Citadel’s offensive Red Zone touchdown rate in SoCon action, 2015: 56.3%

– The Citadel’s defensive Red Zone touchdown rate in SoCon action, 2013: 66.7%
– The Citadel’s defensive Red Zone touchdown rate in SoCon action, 2014: 60.0%
– The Citadel’s defensive Red Zone touchdown rate in SoCon action, 2015: 52.2%

The Bulldogs’ offensive Red Zone TD rate would have been better if you didn’t include the VMI game, in which The Citadel somehow managed to go 0 for 5 in scoring touchdowns once inside the 20-yard line. That was a disappointing performance, though on the bright side Eric Goins got to pad his stats.

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I always like to take a brief look at fumbles. There really isn’t much to say about them as far as last year was concerned, other than the defense recovering seven of eight opponent fumbles was against the odds. Usually, recovering fumbles is a 50-50 proposition.

– The Citadel’s offensive fumbles in SoCon action, 2014: 10 (lost 6)
– The Citadel’s offensive fumbles in SoCon action, 2015: 12 (lost 8)

– The Citadel’s defensive forced fumbles in SoCon action, 2014: 14 (recovered 7)
– The Citadel’s defensive forced fumbles in SoCon action, 2015: 8 (recovered 7)

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When it comes to the SoCon, there are two things on which you can rely with absolute certitude: 1) The Citadel’s gridiron opponents won’t get called for many penalties, and 2) no one associated with The Citadel will ever make the league’s Hall of Fame.

– Penalties enforced against The Citadel in SoCon action, 2014: 37
– Penalties enforced against The Citadel in SoCon action, 2015: 42

– Penalties enforced against The Citadel’s opponents in SoCon action, 2014: 22
– Penalties enforced against The Citadel’s opponents in SoCon action, 2015: 29

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– Punts by The Citadel while in opposing territory in 2013, SoCon action: 6 (in eight games)
– Punts by The Citadel while in opposing territory in 2014, SoCon action: 6 (in seven games)
– Punts by The Citadel while in opposing territory in 2015, SoCon action: 6 (in seven games)

In the spreadsheet I linked earlier (and located on sub-sheet 6), I described the scenarios for each of the punts by the Bulldogs in opposing territory during the 2015 season. Of the six, the most questionable was almost certainly the first of two such punts in the Mercer game.

Trailing 10-0, and facing 4th-and-1 on Mercer’s 40-yard line early in the second quarter, Mike Houston elected to punt. I’m still not sure it was the right decision, but it worked out. Mercer punted the ball back on the next drive, and The Citadel would eventually regroup and take a halftime lead it barely deserved (well, Isiaha Smith deserved it, at least).

There were also three punts by the Bulldogs on 4th down from midfield in conference play. Two of them were inconsequential, but the third (and last) was a different story. After going for a 4th-and-short on The Citadel’s 40-yard line (and making it), Houston was faced with another decision three plays later.

On 4th and 2 from midfield, trailing 24-14 early in the 4th quarter, he elected to punt. Chattanooga scored on the ensuing possession, essentially wrapping up the victory for the Mocs.

I think the coach probably should have gone for it in that situation, but I’m just a guy with a computer. I do wish the Bulldogs hadn’t burned a timeout before punting, though.

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Let’s talk about 4th down…

Defining some terms (courtesy of Football Outsiders):

– Deep Zone: from a team’s own goal line to its 20-yard line
– Back Zone: from a team’s own 21-yard line to its 39-yard line
– Mid Zone: from a team’s own 40-yard line to its opponent’s 40-yard line
– Front Zone: from an opponent’s 39-yard line to the opponent’s 21-yard line
– Red Zone: from an opponent’s 20-yard line to the opponent’s goal line

On sub-sheet 7 of the aforementioned spreadsheet, I’ve categorized each fourth down situation for The Citadel in conference play.

The Bulldogs punted on 4th down every time they were in the Deep Zone or Back Zone. In the Mid Zone, The Citadel punted ten times on 4th down, and went for it three times.

Two of the three were late in the UTC game, so they were “desperation” attempts. I tend not to focus on those types of fourth down attempts (or “garbage time” tries, either). The other 4th-down attempt in the Mid Zone, however, was early in the second quarter against Samford:

  • With 14:12 remaining in the half and the game tied 7-7, The Citadel faced fourth-and-1 on the Samford 40. Mike Houston elected to go for it, and Dominique Allen kept the ball for a 13-yard gain. The Bulldogs eventually scored on the drive, taking a lead they would not relinquish.

In the Front Zone, there were two punts on 4th down (both somewhat justifiable decisions), and four field goal attempts (two were made, two were missed). Three times, Houston kept the offense on the field on 4th down in this zone. One was a “desperation” attempt. The other two occasions were as follows:

  • On The Citadel’s first drive of the game against Western Carolina, the Bulldogs faced 4th-and-2 on the WCU 22-yard line. It didn’t work out for The Citadel, as Vinny Miller was tackled for a loss of four yards.
  • Midway through the fourth quarter versus Mercer, The Citadel went for it on 4th-and-2 from the Mercer 30-yard line, clinging to a 14-13 lead. Cam Jackson gained seven yards to pick up a first down. Three plays later, the Bulldogs scored a TD.

In the Red Zone, The Citadel faced 4th down eight times. Here is a quick review of all eight situations:

  • Ahead 36-12 midway through the 4th quarter against Wofford, the Bulldogs reached the Terriers’ 6-yard line. On 4th and goal, Eric Goins made a 23-yard field goal. (This is close to a “garbage time” decision, admittedly.)
  • On 4th-and-6 at the Mercer 19-yard line, leading 14-10, The Citadel lined up for a field goal. The snap was botched, and the result of the play was an incomplete pass.
  • Early in the second quarter, with a 4th-and-goal at the VMI 16 (the Bulldogs were pushed back by a holding penalty), Eric Goins converted a 33-yard field goal.
  • With a 17-7 lead midway through the second quarter, The Citadel faced fourth-and-goal at the VMI 2-yard line. The Bulldogs went for it, but only gained one yard, turning the ball over on downs.
  • Midway through the third quarter, now leading 20-14, the Bulldogs again had the ball deep in VMI territory. They were unable to punch it in for a TD, though, and on 4th-and-goal from the Keydets’ 3 yard-line, Eric Goins trotted back on to the field to kick another field goal (of 20 yards).
  • On the Bulldogs’ next possession, ahead 23-14, they drove the ball inside the VMI 10-yard line for the umpteenth time, yet still could not get in the end zone. This time, on 4th-and-1 from the VMI 6, Goins made a 23-yarder.
  • Early in the second quarter, trailing 14-0, The Citadel faced 4th-and-2 from the Chattanooga 5-yard line. The Bulldogs went for it, but only picked up one yard.
  • Late in the game versus UTC, with a 4th-and-goal on the Mocs’ 10-yard line, Mike Houston elected to try a field goal. Eric Goins converted the try, bringing the Bulldogs to within two touchdowns (at 31-17).

I was a little surprised when I realized that the Bulldogs did not convert a Red Zone 4th down situation into a touchdown in league play all of last season. Of course, part of that has to do with the lack of opportunities. If you’re scoring touchdowns on 1st or 2nd or 3rd down, then what you do or don’t do on 4th down doesn’t matter as much.

Incidentally, in 2014 The Citadel had five Red Zone 4th down situations in conference action. On only one of those occasions did the Bulldogs convert a 4th down into a first down. That was a big one, though (and a big call to make), as it came in overtime against Furman and led to the eventual game-winning TD.

I am inclined to believe that Mike Houston was slightly more conservative (just slightly) in his 4th-down decision-making in 2015 than he had been the previous season, primarily because he could afford to be. His team was often in the lead, or within a score of being in the lead.

Houston also knew that he had a good, clutch placekicker, and a solid “directional” punter capable of consolidating field position.

Will Vanvick must have shaken his head when great punts in the Samford game went unrewarded (after having the ball downed at the 1- and 2-yard lines, Samford scored touchdowns on the ensuing drives anyway). He’ll always have the punt against South Carolina to remember, though.

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Earlier in this post, I wrote that I had spotted a trend involving the coin toss. To be honest, I don’t know if I really spotted it, or if I just read or heard about it somewhere. I have a vague idea that the subject of the coin toss came up during the weekly coach’s radio show hosted by Mike Legg. It could have been a note in a Jeff Hartsell story, too. Alas, I don’t remember.

At any rate, I wanted to elaborate on the decision-making surrounding the coin toss. I’m not talking about whether or not to call “heads” or “tails”, but rather the idea of deferring the option to the second half after winning a coin toss.

Last year, The Citadel won the coin toss five times (four in SoCon play). Each time, the Bulldogs elected to defer, and wound up kicking off to open the game.

The military college also kicked off three times after losing the coin toss, as three of The Citadel’s opponents (Mercer, South Carolina, and Coastal Carolina) elected to receive the opening kickoff.

The Bulldogs did not automatically defer the option in 2014 when they won the toss, actually electing to receive the opening kickoff three out of the five times they won the flip that season. Therefore, it appears the deferral concept was instituted between the 2014 and 2015 seasons.

I don’t know if Bill Belichick was the inspiration for deferring the option whenever possible, but there are worse guys to emulate when it comes to on-field strategy. As a story in The New York Times pointed out:

Two recent New England games illustrate the advantages of deferring. On Nov. 2, on a cold and windy afternoon, the Patriots won the toss against the Broncos. The Patriots deferred and got the ball to start the second half. When the Broncos elected to receive to begin the game, the Patriots then chose the end that would guarantee the wind would be at their back in the first and fourth quarters. The Patriots won, 43-21.

Sunday against the Lions, the Patriots again deferred. New England scored 10 points in the final three minutes of the second quarter. The Patriots then got the kickoff to open the third quarter and drove deep into Detroit territory before Brady threw an interception.

In the same article, Herm Edwards noted that if “the possessions go about as you think they’re going to go, then maybe you end up with the ball at the end of the game. At the very least, you have the ball to start the second half. And that’s a critical time of the game.”

That piece was written in late November of 2014, just after the Bulldogs’ season had ended that year. I suppose it’s possible that Mike Houston read the story and altered his approach. The timing could also have been coincidental, of course.

Absent other factors, I think deferring the option is usually the right decision. It gives a team the chance to score to end the first half, and then put more points on the board in the second half before the other team gets the ball. It also prevents the opponent from having that same opportunity.

By the way, The Citadel lost six of seven coin tosses last season on the road. As a general rule, one of the visiting team’s captains calls the toss. The Bulldogs obviously need to work on their “heads” or “tails” coin-toss calling technique.

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Whether or not Brent Thompson will stay the course when it comes to deferring the option is an unknown at this point. He will be in a position to put his personal stamp on that, along with such matters as fourth-down decision-making. Those are just two of the many items of interest for the new gridiron boss.

I suspect that things like run/pass tendencies will not radically change, mainly because Thompson himself called the plays the past two years. If there is an adjustment in that area (for example, if The Citadel passes more often), it won’t be due to a change in philosophy, but will instead simply be a function of his personnel, both in terms of talent and experience.

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Summer is crawling along, but the season is getting closer…

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Updating history: attendance at Johnson Hagood Stadium, 1964-2015

Posted on July 18, 2016 by Sandlapper Spike

As always, home attendance is never far away from the thoughts of the person responsible for this blog. This year’s review of last season’s attendance follows.

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Attendance at Johnson Hagood Stadium, 1964-2015

The above link is to a spreadsheet that tracks attendance for The Citadel’s home football games, and which has now been updated to include the 2015 campaign.

For anyone wondering, 1964 marks the earliest year in which reliable attendance figures for all home games can be reasonably determined. Individual game totals prior to 1964 are sometimes available, but not for a complete season.

Thus, I am unable to include seasons like the title-winning campaign of 1961, or any of the other years from 1948 (when the “modern” Johnson Hagood Stadium opened) to 1963 (when the home finale was attended by the former king of Italy, Umberto II).

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The spreadsheet lists year-by-year total and average game attendance, and the win/loss record for the team in each given season. There is also a category ranking the years by average attendance.

Other columns refer to the program’s winning percentage over a two-year, three-year, five-year, and ten-year period, with the “current” season being the final year in each category. For example, the three-year winning percentage for 1992 is made up of the 1990, 1991, and 1992 seasons.

I include those categories primarily to see what impact constant winning (or losing) has on long-term attendance trends. Last year, I wrote:

…the numbers seemed to suggest that a good season tends to drive walk-up sales more than might be expected, particularly compared to season ticket sales for the following campaign. It is also true that due to The Citadel’s struggles on the gridiron over the last two decades, it is hard to draw hard-and-fast conclusions about what the school’s attendance goals should actually be in this day and age.

I think that was borne out again in 2015, though there are obvious sample size issues. For the first two home games of the season (night games versus Davidson and Western Carolina), the average attendance was 8,356. For the final two games at Johnson Hagood Stadium last season (day games against Mercer and VMI), average attendance was 12,465.

Of course, one of those late-season games was Homecoming, so I decided to go back four more seasons:

  • 2014: First two home games, average attendance of 9,700; final two home games, average attendance of 9,563 (including Homecoming)
  • 2013: First two home games, average attendance of 13,370; final two home games, average attendance of 12,948 (including Homecoming)
  • 2012: First two home games, average attendance of 13,281; final two home games, average attendance of 13,715 (including Homecoming)
  • 2011: First two home games, average attendance of 12,756; final two home games, average attendance of 12,387 (including Homecoming)

During the seasons in which The Citadel finished with winning records (9-4 in 2015 and 7-4 in 2012), home attendance improved over the year, albeit not by a lot in 2012.

There was a similar attendance boost in 2007, when the Bulldogs also finished with a winning record (7-4). I am hesitant to put a great deal of stock in that increase, though, due to a wide variation in the quality of opponents (and the resulting fan interest level for the matchup).

The Citadel beat Webber International 76-0 in the second home game that season before 8,547 diehard supporters. I suspect that if the game had been scheduled later in the year, there wouldn’t have been much difference in the total attendance.

The Bulldogs were 5-7 in both 2013 and 2014, and 4-7 in 2011. That lack of on-field success is arguably reflected in the attendance totals.

Of course, it has to be mentioned that attendance in 2014 was at its lowest point in the 52 years that comprehensive records have been kept. While last year was an improvement, 2015 still ranked only 47th out of the seasons in that 52-year period.

The average attendance at Johnson Hagood Stadium since 1964 is 14,164. However, there have now been ten consecutive years in which that number has not been reached for a season attendance average.

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The folks in the ticket office continue to work hard at increasing sales for the general public. The most recent example of this is a Groupon promotion.

Not that anyone in the department of athletics needs me to say this, but I think it’s worth noting that The Citadel cannot afford to relax its sales push once the season begins. Attendance for late-season home contests can’t be taken for granted, regardless of the team’s record or if a particular game is scheduled on Homecoming weekend.

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Let’s take a quick look at attendance from the viewpoint of the FCS as a whole (including the SoCon).

Link to NCAA attendance figures for the 2015 season

Montana led the division in average home attendance, with 24,139 (seven games, including the playoffs; all of these numbers include postseason contests). Eight FCS schools averaged more than 18,000 per game, with a significant dropoff after that (the ninth-highest, Delaware, averaged 15,826).

The Citadel ranked 22nd overall (10,678), just behind Mercer (10,692). Chattanooga (25th, averaging 10,152) and Western Carolina (26th, averaging 10,119) were other Southern Conference schools that finished in the Top 30.

Others of varying interest among the 125 FCS squads (counting Abilene Christian and Incarnate Word, which are transitioning to the division, but not Charlotte, which is moving to FBS):

  • Jacksonville State — 2nd (20,598 per game)
  • Yale — 3rd (20,547)
  • James Madison — 4th (19,498)
  • Montana State — 5th (19,172)
  • Liberty — 6th (18,990)
  • North Dakota State — 7th (18,497)
  • South Carolina State — 10th (15,629)
  • Harvard — 17th (12,799)
  • Eastern Kentucky — 23rd (10,350)
  • William & Mary — 33rd (8,967)
  • Kennesaw State — 35th (8,820)
  • Coastal Carolina — 36th (8,818)
  • Richmond — 45th (8,099)
  • Elon — 46th (7,841)
  • East Tennessee State — 55th (7,128)
  • Wofford — 58th (7,007)
  • Furman — 60th (6,795)
  • Villanova — 61st (6,767)
  • Samford — 79th (5,544)
  • VMI — 90th (4,778)
  • Charleston Southern — 96th (4,487)
  • Gardner-Webb — 100th (3,882)
  • Presbyterian – 102nd (3,810)
  • Jacksonville — 104th (3,580)
  • Davidson — 113th (2,758)
  • Duquesne — 125th (1,372)

Odds and ends:

– Duquesne, a playoff team last year, ranked last in the division in home attendance.

– Furman finished behind Wofford in home attendance, the second consecutive season that has happened.

– Montana’s home attendance average was higher than 41 FBS programs, including every single school in the Sun Belt and the MAC. It was higher than the average home attendance for the Mountain West and C-USA.

– Montana State may have only had the second-best home attendance in its own state, but that was still higher than 17 FBS programs.

– The Citadel had a higher home attendance average than three FBS schools — Georgia State, Ball State, and Eastern Michigan (which averaged only 4,897 fans per game).

Undergraduate enrollment for those three institutions: 32,842 (Georgia State), 18,621 (Eastern Michigan), and 16,652 (Ball State).

– The decision of the Sun Belt to extend a membership invitation to Coastal Carolina instead of Liberty was definitely not based on money, and it clearly wasn’t based on fan support either, if football attendance is any guide.

– For those curious, without the home playoff game last season Charleston Southern would have averaged 3,694 per home contest.

– Despite declining attendance numbers at Johnson Hagood Stadium, The Citadel has still finished in the Top 30 of FCS attendance in each of the last ten years. I think that’s pretty good for a small military college.

While there has been a bit of angst concerning attendance (or lack thereof) at home games in recent years, it has to be remembered that The Citadel still enjoys a wildly greater level of support than would normally be the case for a school of its size — both in terms of undergraduate enrollment, and alumni base.

Sometimes, that gets lost in the shuffle. For example, I distinctly remember at least two members of the local media cohort who forgot that last season.

—

Football season is getting closer…

 

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During the 2016 season, what teams will the Bulldogs’ opponents play before (and after) facing The Citadel?

Posted on July 11, 2016 by Sandlapper Spike

That’s right, it’s time for the annual July topic. In this post, I take a look at football schedules, and note which teams The Citadel’s opponents face before and after playing the Bulldogs. Sometimes, of course, the answer is “bye”.

Let’s review…

September 1 (Thursday): The Citadel’s first game of the season is a road conference matchup with Mercer. The game will be played on Thursday night, the first time I can recall the Bulldogs not opening the season on a Saturday.

As the opener for both teams, obviously neither will have faced a prior opponent this year. Mercer’s last game was a 47-21 home loss to Samford to close out the 2015 campaign.

After playing The Citadel, the Bears will prepare for another triple option team — Georgia Tech. It will be the first time the schools have met on the gridiron since 1938 (and the first game for Mercer against an FBS opponent since it restarted its football program in 2013).

September 10: Furman makes the trip to Charleston to face the Bulldogs. The Paladins open their 2016 season on Friday night (September 2), travelling to East Lansing for a meeting with Michigan State (the first time Furman has ever played a Big 10 team in football).

The Paladins’ home opener is on September 17, versus Chattanooga. It is the only one of FU’s first four games that will take place in Greenville, as Furman will play at Coastal Carolina on September 24.

September 17: The Citadel makes the journey to Boiling Springs, North Carolina, for a Bulldogs-vs.-Bulldogs battle.

It will be Gardner-Webb’s only home game in the month of September. The Runnin’ Bulldogs open with road games at Elon and Western Carolina before playing The Citadel, and will venture into the world of the MAC on September 24 for a contest against Ohio.

September 24: This is the open week for The Citadel. I’ll be on vacation myself. No, that isn’t a coincidence.

October 1: The Bulldogs will be in Cullowhee on the first day of October, tangling with Western Carolina. Both teams will be coming off a bye week.

WCU plays East Tennessee State in Johnson City on September 17. The game against The Citadel will be the first of two straight home contests for the Catamounts, as they play Wofford on October 8.

Western Carolina has FBS bookends on its schedule this year. WCU opens its season with a game versus East Carolina. There will be plenty of purple in Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium that night.

The Catamounts will conclude regular-season action with a trip to Columbia for an SEC-SoCon Challenge game against South Carolina. Will the local alt-weekly refer to the game as a “cupcake” matchup? I’m guessing it will not.

October 8: After almost a month away from Johnson Hagood Stadium, The Citadel returns home for a Parents’ Day game against North Greenville.

The Crusaders are at home on October 1, facing Mars Hill. After playing The Citadel, the next game for North Greenville is a road matchup versus Tusculum.

October 15: The Bulldogs play Chattanooga in Charleston on this date. The Mocs are at home for both their prior game (Mercer) and the contest that follows (VMI).

After playing eight SoCon games in nine weeks, Chattanooga finishes its regular season campaign with a non-conference clash against Alabama.

October 22: The Citadel faces Wofford in Spartanburg. The Terriers have a bye on October 15. The week following the game against the Bulldogs, Wofford hosts Mercer.

The Terriers open the season with two road games. Wofford plays Mississippi in the second of those contests.

October 29: The Bulldogs play East Tennessee State in the next-to-last home game of the season. The Buccaneers don’t have a bye the week before, but will get a couple of extra days of preparation, as ETSU hosts West Virginia Wesleyan on Thursday, October 20.

East Tennessee State is at Mercer the week following its trip to Johnson Hagood Stadium. ETSU finishes the season with two home games, against Cumberland (yes, the Cumberland of 222-0 fame) and Samford.

November 5: Samford is the Homecoming opponent for The Citadel this year. With the possible exception of Furman, none of the military college’s other opponents has a tougher task the week prior to facing The Citadel. Samford has a matchup at Mississippi State on October 29.

On November 12, Samford holds its own Homecoming game against Mercer.

November 12: The battle for the coveted Silver Shako resumes once again on November 12, this time in Lexington, Virginia. VMI plays at Western Carolina the week before, and concludes its regular season with a game at Wofford the week following this game.

November 19: There will be lots of light blue in Chapel Hill on November 19, as The Citadel comes to town to face North Carolina. The Tar Heels are at Duke on November 12, and have another rivalry game the following week, versus North Carolina State (with that game taking place on the Friday following Thanksgiving Day).

—

A couple of observations about the schedule:

– Mercer wound up as a de facto “travel partner” of sorts for The Citadel this season. The Bears play Chattanooga the week before the Bulldogs do. Following that, there are three consecutive weeks in which a team will play Mercer the week after playing The Citadel (those three squads being Wofford, East Tennessee State, and Samford).

– As far as “option preview” situations are concerned…

Western Carolina and VMI both face Wofford the week after playing The Citadel. Only two league teams (Samford and East Tennessee State) play Wofford before matchups with The Citadel; both play the Terriers several weeks before meeting the Bulldogs.

North Carolina will play Georgia Tech two weeks before hosting The Citadel in Chapel Hill. North Greenville has a meeting with Lenoir-Rhyne a few weeks before playing The Citadel, but L-R (which has a new head coach) is moving to a more balanced offense after several years running the triple option.

—

Football season is getting closer…

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For Immediate Release: TSA Watch List for the Southern Conference (SoCon), Part 4 — Coach of the Year

Posted on July 6, 2016 by Sandlapper Spike

Today, TSA announced its watch lists for the 2016 SoCon Player of the Year and various associated positional honors, including quarterback, running back, offensive line, wide receiver, tight end, defensive line, linebacker, defensive secondary, kicker, punter, and long snapper. The watch lists will once again incorporate a broad spectrum of league teams. There will also be a watch list for the TSA SoCon Coach of the Year.

TSA is a member of the Global American College Football Awards Consortium (GACFAC), which encompasses the most prestigious awards in college football. GACFAC is the standard-bearer for tradition-selection excellence.

The membership of TSA unveils the preseason watch lists in a series of four releases, one for offensive players, one for defensive players, one for special teams stalwarts, and one for coaches. All players listed are eligible for TSA’s SoCon Player of the Year, as well as honors for each of their respective positional categories.

Players not listed on any TSA watch list are ineligible for any post-season honors. However, TSA has a unique appeals process by which a player not on a watch list can be nominated for a special exemption. Any players granted such an exemption will be named to their respective TSA late-season watch lists for each positional category, and would become eligible for league player of the year as well.

Head coaches not listed on the TSA watch list are also ineligible for post-season honors. However, TSA’s unique appeals process for players also applies to any SoCon head coach not on the watch list.

Without further ado, here is the TSA watch list for the SoCon Coach of the Year for 2016. Congratulations to all the coaches who were selected.

(As noted earlier, other releases will feature the offensive, defensive, and special teams watch lists.)

Link to watch lists — offense

Link to watch lists — defense

Link to watch lists — special teams

Coaches

Bobby Lamb Mercer
Brent Thompson The Citadel
Bruce Fowler Furman
Carl Torbush ETSU
Chris Hatcher Samford
Mark Speir W. Carolina
Mike Ayers Wofford
Russ Huesman Chattanooga
S. Wachenheim VMI

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For Immediate Release: TSA Watch List for the Southern Conference (SoCon), Part 3 — Special Teams

Posted on July 6, 2016 by Sandlapper Spike

Today, TSA announced its watch lists for the 2016 SoCon Player of the Year and various associated positional honors, including quarterback, running back, offensive line, wide receiver, tight end, defensive line, linebacker, defensive secondary, kicker, punter, and long snapper. The watch lists will once again incorporate a broad spectrum of league teams. There will also be a watch list for the TSA SoCon Coach of the Year.

TSA is a member of the Global American College Football Awards Consortium (GACFAC), which encompasses the most prestigious awards in college football. GACFAC is the standard-bearer for tradition-selection excellence.

The membership of TSA unveils the preseason watch lists in a series of four releases, one for offensive players, one for defensive players, one for special teams stalwarts, and one for coaches. All players listed are eligible for TSA’s SoCon Player of the Year, as well as honors for each of their respective positional categories.

Players not listed on any TSA watch list are ineligible for any post-season honors. However, TSA has a unique appeals process by which a player not on a watch list can be nominated for a special exemption. Any players granted such an exemption will be named to their respective TSA late-season watch lists for each positional category, and would become eligible for league player of the year as well.

Without further ado, here are the TSA watch lists for the SoCon’s special teams standouts. Congratulations to all the players who were selected.

(As noted earlier, other releases will feature the offensive and defensive teams watch lists, and the TSA SoCon Coach of the Year Watch List.)

Link to watch list — offense

Link to watch list — defense

Link to watch list — Coach of the Year, Southern Conference

—

Long Snappers

Adam Mullins LS RSo. ETSU
Alec Hulmes LS SR Samford
C. Addertion LS RS SR W. Carolina
C. McDonough LS FR W. Carolina
Chase Zeegers LS FR Samford
Dustin Nickle LS RFr. ETSU
Emory Norred LS Jr. Chattanooga
Evan Vaughn LS Fr. Furman
Jackson Wetherby LS RS FR W. Carolina
Jake Keith LS Fr. VMI
John Garrett Abernathy LS JR Mercer
Lee Riley LS So. The Citadel
Lewis Freeman LS FR Samford
Patrick Keefe LS So. The Citadel
Ross Hammond LS So. Wofford
Steven Nixon LS FR Mercer
Tanner Dillard LS So. Chattanooga

Placekickers

Christian Stewart K FR WCU
Cody Clark K Sr. The Citadel
Cole Fisher K FR Mercer
Colin Brewer K Fr. Chattanooga
David Marvin K Jr. Wofford
Dillon Christopher K Sr. VMI
Grant Reynolds K FR Mercer
Henrique Ribeiro K Sr. Chattanooga
Jacob Godek K Fr. The Citadel
Jagger Lieb K SO Mercer
Jake Poczobut K Fr. ETSU
Jeremiah Norman K RFr. VMI
JJ Jerman K So. ETSU
Jody Purnell K FR Samford
Joe DeFatta K RSo. ETSU
Joe Difilippo K Fr. Furman
Jon Croft Hollingsworth K So. Furman
Landon Kunak K RFr. ETSU
Logan Howard K SO WCU
Luke Carter K R-Fr. Wofford
Luke Morris K FR Samford
Marion Watson K So. ETSU
Mark Holtgrave K FR Samford
Nathan Geis K FR Samford
Reece Everett K SO Samford
Reed King K Fr. VMI
Tommy Smith K So. VMI
Tyler Zielenske K JR Mercer
Warren Handrahan K JR Samford

Punters

Austin Barnard P SO Samford
Bill Hogan P RSo. VMI
Brian Sanders P Sr. Wofford
David Marvin P Jr. Wofford
Destry Barnwell P JR WCU
Ian Berryman P RS SO WCU
Jacob Godek P Fr. The Citadel
Jake Poczobut P Fr. ETSU
Joe DeFatta P RSo. ETSU
Jon Croft Hollingsworth P So. Furman
Luke Carter P R-Fr. Wofford
Reed King P Fr. VMI
Rob East P JR Mercer
Seth Hinton P Sr. VMI
Tommy Smith P So. VMI
Will Vanvick P Sr. The Citadel

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For Immediate Release: TSA Watch List for the Southern Conference (SoCon), Part 2 — Defense

Posted on July 6, 2016 by Sandlapper Spike

Today, TSA announced its watch lists for the 2016 SoCon Player of the Year and various associated positional honors, including quarterback, running back, offensive line, wide receiver, tight end, defensive line, linebacker, defensive secondary, kicker, punter, and long snapper. The watch lists will once again incorporate a broad spectrum of league teams. There will also be a watch list for the TSA SoCon Coach of the Year.

TSA is a member of the Global American College Football Awards Consortium (GACFAC), which encompasses the most prestigious awards in college football. GACFAC is the standard-bearer for tradition-selection excellence.

The membership of TSA unveils the preseason watch lists in a series of four releases, one for offensive players, one for defensive players, one for special teams stalwarts, and one for coaches. All players listed are eligible for TSA’s SoCon Player of the Year, as well as honors for each of their respective positional categories.

Players not listed on any TSA watch list are ineligible for any post-season honors. However, TSA has a unique appeals process by which a player not on a watch list can be nominated for a special exemption. Any players granted such an exemption will be named to their respective TSA late-season watch lists for each positional category, and would become eligible for league player of the year as well.

Without further ado, here are the TSA watch lists for the SoCon’s defensive positions. Congratulations to all the players who were selected.

(As noted earlier, other releases will feature the offensive and special teams watch lists, and the TSA SoCon Coach of the Year Watch List.)

Link to watch lists — offense

Link to watch lists — special teams

Link to watch list — Coach of the Year, Southern Conference

Defensive Linemen

A.J. Stokes DL Fr. The Citadel
Adam Wawrzynski DL R-Fr. The Citadel
Ahmad Gooden DL FR Samford
Alex Nolan DL Jr. Wofford
Alfred Brown DL FR Samford
Andre Newton DL FR Samford
Andrew Mayton DL RS JR Western Carolina
Anthony Eads DL FR Samford
Anthony Perella DL JR Mercer
Austin Barrett DL SO Mercer
Austin Rowan DL Fr. ETSU
Austin Wysor DL FR Mercer
Avery Worsham DL SR Western Carolina
Blake Jones DL FR Mercer
Boston Bryant DL Sr. Wofford
Brad Minter DL Jr. Furman
Brad Noble DL SR Samford
Bradley Carter DL So. The Citadel
Brandon Bourk DL Jr. Chattanooga
Brandon Curtis DL Jr. Wofford
Brandon Zamary DL So. Wofford
Brian Ross DL R-Jr. Furman
Caleb Hester DL So. The Citadel
Carew Alvarez DL So. Wofford
Chinedu Okonya DL R-Fr. Furman
Chris Boudreaux DL Sr. Wofford
Chris Bouyer DL So. ETSU
Chris Washington DL Fr. Furman
Cody Jones DL JR Mercer
Colt Jenkins DL RSo. ETSU
Connor Jackson DL R-Fr. Furman
D.J. Prather DL Jr. Chattanooga
Daniel Nash DL SR Western Carolina
DeAndre Thornton DL R-So. Furman
Destin Guillen DL FR Mercer
Devon Johnson DL RFr. ETSU
Dillon Vann DL Fr. Furman
Dorian Kithcart DL FR Mercer
Emeka Ikezu DL SO Samford
Ezavian Dunn DL JR Western Carolina
F. Charles DL RJr. ETSU
Fred Mooring DL SR Western Carolina
Hawk Schrider DL So. Chattanooga
Holden Edwards DL FR Western Carolina
Horace Roberts DL FR Samford
Hudson Brett DL FR Mercer
Ian Hayes DL Fr. Chattanooga
Isaiah Mack DL So. Chattanooga
J.C. Garvin DL RSr. VMI
Jake Helms DL FR Western Carolina
Jake Kingree DL JR Samford
Jalen Penn DL SO Mercer
Ja’Lon Williams DL R-Fr. The Citadel
James Stone DL Sr. Chattanooga
Jared Holloway DL JR Samford
Jarrod Richmond DL RFr. VMI
Jason Maduafokwa DL RFr. ETSU
Jay Gibbs DL RS FR Western Carolina
Jaylan Reid DL R-Fr. Furman
Joe Crochet DL Sr. The Citadel
Joe Dossett DL So. ETSU
Joe Pittman DL RFr. ETSU
John Mobley DL RSo. VMI
Jonah Tibbs DL Fr. Furman
Jonathan King DL Jr. The Citadel
Jordan Harris DL Fr. Furman
Jordan Hawkins DL Jr. Furman
Jose Casanova DL SR Samford
Joseph Randolph II DL Fr. The Citadel
Justin Foster DL FR Samford
Justin King DL Sr. Chattanooga
Justin Minick DL SR Samford
Keionta Davis DL Sr. Chattanooga
Kelly Brooks DL JR Mercer
Ken Allen DL So. The Citadel
Kevin Graham DL So. The Citadel
Khayyan Edwards DL Fr. Chattanooga
Marvin Davis DL JR Mercer
Matt DeGraffinreed DL RS SR Western Carolina
Mikel Horton DL Fr. Wofford
Miles Brown DL So. Wofford
Mitchell Smith DL JR Samford
Myreon Bennett DL RS FR Western Carolina
Nasir Player DL RFr. ETSU
Nick Collins DL JR Mercer
Noah Dawkins DL So. The Citadel
Olajuwon Pinkelton DL Fr. ETSU
Robbie Armstrong DL Fr. Wofford
R. Donaldson DL JR Samford
Royce Turnbull DL RJr. ETSU
Ryan Clark DL Fr. VMI
Sam Parker DL Sr. The Citadel
Seth Mallory DL RSr. VMI
Shavon Henderson DL RSo. VMI
Sheldon Kinard DL RS JR Western Carolina
Steven Cornellier DL Jr. Wofford
T.J. Warren DL R-Jr. Furman
Tahjai Watt DL RS JR Western Carolina
Tashion Singleton DL GS Western Carolina
Taylor Reynolds DL Jr. Chattanooga
Telvin Jones DL Fr. Chattanooga
Terrell Woods DL JR Samford
Thad Mangum DL R-Fr. Wofford
Thad Stevenson-Panchisin DL RFr. VMI
Toney Benson DL Jr. Wofford
Tony Zaffore DL So. Chattanooga
Travis Johnson DL Jr. The Citadel
Tra’von Ricketts DL RS FR Western Carolina
Tremond Ferrell DL So. ETSU
Tre’Von White DL So. The Citadel
T. Jachimowicz DL Jr. Chattanooga
Tunde Ayinla DL JR Mercer
Tyler Junius DL JR Western Carolina
Tyler Vaughn DL Jr. Wofford
Vantrel McMillan DL Sr. Chattanooga
Xavier Forrest DL SO Samford
Xavier Greenfield DL Jr. VMI
Zachary Greene DL RS SO Western Carolina
Zack Baker DL RSo. VMI
Zack Lockhart DL Fr. VMI

Linebackers

Aaron Harris LB FR Samford
Alec Happel LB FR Samford
Alijah Robinson LB Sr. VMI
Allan Cratsenberg LB Jr. VMI
Andrew Birkmire LB FR Western Carolina
Austin Chapman LB SO Samford
Austin Gatewood LB RSo. ETSU
Austin Howard LB Fr. ETSU
Austin Mosier LB RFr. ETSU
Bill Hogan LB RSo. VMI
Billy Hinton LB So. Wofford
Blake Bockrath LB Fr. ETSU
Brad Lipscomb LB RSr. VMI
Brandon Brown LB Fr. Wofford
Brian Lipscomb LB RSo. VMI
Byron Johnson LB Jr. Furman
Caleb Lindsey LB Sr. VMI
Campbell Jackson LB R-Fr. Wofford
Carl Rider LB R-Jr. Furman
Carter McManes LB SO Samford
Chris Seaborn LB JR Western Carolina
Cj Kleckley LB JR Mercer
Clark Dupree LB FR Samford
Cody Bennett LB So. Chattanooga
Cody Floyd LB So. The Citadel
Cody Peregoy LB RFr. VMI
C. Cunningham LB RS SR Western Carolina
Colton Clemons LB Jr. Wofford
Colton Lakes LB Fr. ETSU
Connor Riddle LB Fr. VMI
Corey Lockett LB JR Mercer
Cory Carter LB FR Samford
Dale Warren LB Jr. Chattanooga
D’Andre Belton LB RS SO Western Carolina
Daniel Riddle LB RS JR Western Carolina
Darnell Ashton LB Sr. VMI
Daryl Vining LB Jr. Wofford
Datavious Wilson LB Fr. Wofford
Deion Pierre LB SO Samford
Denzel Wright LB Fr. The Citadel
Derek Slaughter LB SR Samford
Derek Wilson LB RFr. VMI
Devin Davidson LB JR Mercer
Dillon Woodruff LB R-So. Furman
D. Perryman LB Fr. Furman
D. Copeland LB Sr. The Citadel
Dorsett Johnson LB FR Samford
Dru Seabrook LB Fr. Furman
Dylan Weigel LB RSo. ETSU
Dylan Young LB Jr. Wofford
Elliott Brewster LB Fr. VMI
Emory McKenzie LB Fr. Furman
Garrett Hicks LB R-Fr. Wofford
Gregory Pappas LB Jr. The Citadel
Isaiah Buehler LB FR Mercer
Israel Battle LB Jr. The Citadel
J.C. Coy LB Fr. VMI
Jack Raines LB FR Mercer
Jacob Powell LB R-Fr. Furman
Jake Brooks LB FR Mercer
Jake Massey LB FR Samford
J. Donahue LB RFr. VMI
JD Griffin LB Fr. ETSU
Jeremy Samuels LB Fr. The Citadel
Jerod Walls LB RS FR Western Carolina
Jerry Langan LB Jr. Furman
Jireh Wilson LB Fr. Wofford
John Patterson LB Jr. Wofford
Jonathan Baker LB Fr. VMI
Jonathan Mooney LB JR Samford
Jonathan Ward LB FR Mercer
Jordan Thomas LB R-Fr. The Citadel
Josh Bennett LB JR Mercer
Josh Killett LB SR Samford
Justin Cooper LB SR Samford
Kahlil Mitchell LB So. ETSU
Kendall White LB JR Western Carolina
K. Wilson LB Fr. Chattanooga
Kuony Deng LB Fr. VMI
Kyle Trammell LB SO Mercer
Kyle Vails LB RS JR Western Carolina
Kyle Williams LB SO Mercer
Lee Bennett LB SO Mercer
Lincoln Stewart LB Sr. Wofford
Luke Davis LB Fr. Chattanooga
Michael Bean LB Fr. Chattanooga
Michael Minder LB RS FR Western Carolina
M. Rainwater LB JR Mercer
Michael Roach LB Jr. Wofford
Michael Wagner LB JR Mercer
Mitchell Chancey LB SO Western Carolina
Myles Pierce LB Jr. The Citadel
Najee Lawrence LB Fr. VMI
Nakevion Leslie LB Sr. Chattanooga
Nathan Sanders LB So. Wofford
Neil Monaghan LB So. Wofford
Phil Davis LB R-Fr. The Citadel
P. Whitehead LB Fr. ETSU
Quinlan Washington LB So. The Citadel
Raleigh Webb LB Fr. The Citadel
River Boruff LB RSo. ETSU
Russell Hubbs LB So. The Citadel
Ryan Francis LB RJr. VMI
Shaheed Salmon LB SO Samford
Spencer Brien LB RSo. ETSU
T.J. Jenkins LB Jr. Chattanooga
Terrance Morris LB Jr. Wofford
Tevin Floyd LB Sr. The Citadel
Tim Whatley LB So. Chattanooga
Tonne Osaigbovo LB JR Samford
Tony Richardson LB Jr. VMI
Tosin Aguebor LB JR Mercer
Tradd Deaver LB R-Fr. The Citadel
Travonte’ Easley LB FR Mercer
Trey Nelson LB Jr. The Citadel
Trey Quillin LB RSo. ETSU
Tripp Patterson LB JR Mercer
Troy Barden LB RJr. VMI
Tyler Fedison LB RFr. VMI
Tyler Queen LB FR Samford
Tyler Voyles LB Fr. Furman
Tyler Ward LB JR Mercer
Tyreik Lyles LB So. Wofford
Tyson Dickson LB SR Western Carolina
Weston Rountree LB So. Wofford
Will Coneway LB FR Mercer
Za’Von Whitaker LB R-Fr. The Citadel

Defensive Backs

A.J. Newman Jr. DB JR WCU
Aaquil Annoor DB Fr. Furman
Aaron Avant DB JR Mercer
Adekunle Olusanya DB R-So. Furman
Adrian King DB Fr. Chattanooga
Alex Avant DB SR Mercer
Alex Burch DB Fr. Furman
Alex Keys DB RSr. VMI
Alonzo Francois DB RSo. ETSU
A. Heyward DB RFr. ETSU
Andy Nichols DB JR Mercer
A. Simpson DB FR Samford
Aron Spann III DB So. The Citadel
Ben Roberts DB Jr. The Citadel
Bobby Gibbs DB RS SO WCU
B. Meccariello DB R-Fr. Furman
Bradley Lythgoe DB Fr. VMI
Brandon Coney DB FR Mercer
Brandon Gurley DB FR Mercer
Bryan Okeh DB Fr. Furman
Bryce Suber DB RFr. ETSU
Bryce Wilson DB RS FR WCU
C.J. Fritz DB So. Chattanooga
C.J. Toomer DB SO Samford
Carl Cunningham Jr. DB So. The Citadel
Cedric Nettles DB Sr. Chattanooga
C. Steverson DB Fr. The Citadel
Charlie Jackson DB RFr. ETSU
Chaz Claunch DB SO Samford
Chris Armfield DB Sr. Wofford
Chris Howard DB RFr. ETSU
C. Gibson DB RFr. ETSU
Christian Stark DB FR Samford
C. Waddell DB Fr. VMI
Cody Brooks DB JR Samford
Cole Higbie DB Jr. Wofford
Curt Nixon DB R-Fr. The Citadel
Curtis Roach DB FR WCU
D.J. Williams DB Fr. Chattanooga
Damian Jones DB RSr. VMI
Daren Ardis DB Jr. ETSU
Darron Paschal DB Fr. Wofford
Dee Delaney DB Jr. The Citadel
D. Cortner DB FR WCU
Devin Watson DB So. Wofford
D. Redwood DB Fr. Wofford
D. Williams DB So. ETSU
D. Lemon DB So. Wofford
Donovan Franks DB R-So. Furman
E. Stawowczyk DB RSo. VMI
Emerson Brooks DB FR Samford
Eric Jackson DB FR Mercer
Fred Payne DB SR WCU
G. Sutherland DB RSo. VMI
George Gbesee DB R-Fr. Wofford
Graham Massey DB So. Wofford
Greg Sanders DB Jr. VMI
Jabari Scruggs DB JR Mercer
Jack Jones DB RSo. ETSU
Jackson Trawick DB Jr. ETSU
Jacob Finerty DB RS FR WCU
Jacque Evangelister DB Fr. Furman
Jaleel Green DB Sr. Wofford
J. Williams DB Jr. Wofford
J. Milliken DB R-Jr. Furman
J. Blount DB JR Samford
Jamond Glass DB FR Samford
Jarek Taylor DB FR Samford
J. Williams DB Fr. ETSU
Jaylon Harden DB Fr. Furman
Jeremy James DB SO Mercer
Jeremy Lewis DB Fr. ETSU
Jevon Gooden DB Jr. ETSU
J. Robinson DB FR Mercer
Joe Farrar DB R-Fr. Furman
John Brannon III DB FR WCU
John Patrick DB Fr. Furman
JoJo Tillery DB So. Wofford
Jon Strozyk DB RJr. VMI
Jordan Willis DB Fr. Furman
Josh Kimberlin DB SR Samford
K.J. Roper DB Fr. Chattanooga
Kaelin Snead DB Fr. VMI
Kailik Williams DB Jr. The Citadel
Kaleb Tucker DB Fr. VMI
Karee Carter DB So. VMI
Kavajae Ellis DB Fr. Furman
Keanu James DB So. ETSU
Keion Crossen DB JR WCU
Kevin Ferguson DB RFr. ETSU
Khafari Buffalo DB R-Fr. The Citadel
L. Bailey DB SO Mercer
Lendell Arnold DB JR Mercer
Le’Vonte Larry DB Fr. Chattanooga
Lucas Webb DB Jr. Chattanooga
Luke Cuneo DB R-Fr. Furman
Luke Stokes DB FR Samford
M. Herrington DB Fr. ETSU
Malik Diggs DB Sr. The Citadel
Malik Rivera DB So. Wofford
Marvin Tillman DB SO WCU
Mason Alstatt DB Fr. Wofford
Matt Azemar DB SO Samford
M. Nicholson DB Sr. VMI
Michael Murphy DB FR WCU
M. Sarafianos DB Jr. Wofford
M. Williams DB RSo. VMI
Mike Gray DB JR Mercer
Mikey White DB SO WCU
Montrell Pardue DB So. Chattanooga
Nathan Peeples DB So. The Citadel
Nevin Harton DB JR Mercer
Nick Barton DB FR Samford
Nick Miller DB Jr. Furman
Nick Payne DB Fr. ETSU
Nick Ward DB Jr. Wofford
Omari Williams DB SO Samford
Patrick Wells DB Fr. Furman
Paul Hunter DB Jr. ETSU
Pete Reed DB RJr. VMI
Phil Barrett DB Fr. The Citadel
Quandarius Weems DB Fr. Furman
Richard Hayes III DB Jr. Furman
R. Charles DB FR Samford
Ryan Powers DB Sr. ETSU
Ryan White DB SO Samford
Sam Pettway DB SO Samford
Scott Frazier DB RJr. VMI
Sean Dumas DB Fr. The Citadel
Sean McMahan DB Fr. Chattanooga
Sean Rusnak DB R-Fr. Furman
Sebastian Hicks DB JR Mercer
Shamon Elliott DB FR WCU
Shane Samuels DB RS JR WCU
Shy Phillips DB Jr. The Citadel
Stephen Gibbs DB FR Samford
Stephen Houzah DB FR Mercer
Stuart Smith DB R-Fr. Furman
S. Brown DB JR Mercer
Tae Davis DB Jr. Chattanooga
Tavian Lott DB Sr. ETSU
Tavon Lawson DB Jr. Chattanooga
Thomas Brown DB R-Jr. Furman
T. DeGrange DB FR Samford
Tony Mitchell DB Fr. ETSU
Tony Welch DB RSo. ETSU
T. Winton DB RSo. ETSU
Tra Hardy DB JR WCU
Trevor Wright DB Jr. Chattanooga
Trey Gowan DB Fr. ETSU
Trey Morgan DB SR WCU
Trey Robinson DB Jr. Furman
Tyler Jackson DB R-Fr. The Citadel
Tyriuq Trotman DB So. VMI
Tyus Carter DB Jr. The Citadel
Ulysses Strawter DB Fr. Wofford
Uzoma Kpaduwa DB RFr. VMI
Zach Jackson DB JR Mercer

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For Immediate Release: TSA Watch List for the Southern Conference (SoCon), Part 1 — Offense

Posted on July 6, 2016 by Sandlapper Spike

Today, TSA announced its watch lists for the 2016 SoCon Player of the Year and various associated positional honors, including quarterback, running back, offensive line, wide receiver, tight end, defensive line, linebacker, defensive secondary, kicker, punter, and long snapper. The watch lists will once again incorporate a broad spectrum of league teams. There will also be a watch list for the TSA SoCon Coach of the Year.

TSA is a member of the Global American College Football Awards Consortium (GACFAC), which encompasses the most prestigious awards in college football. GACFAC is the standard-bearer for tradition-selection excellence.

The membership of TSA unveils the preseason watch lists in a series of four releases, one for offensive players, one for defensive players, one for special teams stalwarts, and one for coaches. All players listed are eligible for TSA’s SoCon Player of the Year, as well as honors for each of their respective positional categories.

Players not listed on any TSA watch list are ineligible for any post-season honors. However, TSA has a unique appeals process by which a player not on a watch list can be nominated for a special exemption. Any players granted such an exemption will be named to their respective TSA late-season watch lists for each positional category, and would become eligible for league player of the year as well.

Without further ado, here are the TSA watch lists for the SoCon’s offensive positions. Congratulations to all the players selected.

(As noted earlier, other releases will feature the defensive and special teams watch lists, and the TSA SoCon Coach of the Year Watch List.)

Link to watch lists — defense

Link to watch lists — special teams

Link to watch list — Coach of the Year, Southern Conference

Quarterbacks

Al Cobb QB RJr. VMI
Albert Mitchell QB SO Samford
A. Bennifield QB Jr. Chattanooga
Alex Matthews QB JR Samford
Austin Coulling QB RFr. VMI
Austin Herink QB RSo. ETSU
Avery Armstrong QB Fr. Furman
Bishop George QB Fr. VMI
Brad Butler QB Jr. Wofford
Brandon Goodson QB Jr. Wofford
Brandon Rainey QB Fr. The Citadel
Carson Barnett QB SR Samford
David Howerton QB Jr. Wofford
Devlin Hodges QB FR Samford
Dominique Allen QB Jr. The Citadel
Drew Pederson QB SO Samford
Duncan Hodges QB Fr. VMI
Dylan Wieger QB RFr. ETSU
Evan Jacks QB Sr. Wofford
Harris Roberts QB R-Fr. Furman
Jake Allen QB FR Mercer
Jake Paladino QB RFr. VMI
Jalen Lampkin QB So. The Citadel
Jes Sutherland QB FR Samford
Joe Newman QB Fr. Wofford
John Mitchell QB FR Mercer
John Russ QB JR Mercer
Jordan Black QB R-Fr. The Citadel
Kalen Whitlow QB RS FR Western Carolina
Logan Bailey QB Fr. The Citadel
Luke Manning QB So. ETSU
Michael Eubank QB SR Samford
Michael Haynes QB JR Mercer
Nick Sexton QB RSo. ETSU
Nolan Beasley QB FR Western Carolina
P.J. Blazejowski QB So. Furman
Reese Hannon QB R-Jr. Furman
Reese Vita QB Fr. Furman
Ryan Burger QB Fr. ETSU
Tanner Brumby QB FR Mercer
Tucker Genal QB R-Fr. Furman
Tyler Roberson QB Jr. Chattanooga
Tyrie Adams QB RS FR Western Carolina
Wes Holcombe QB JR Western Carolina
Xavier Johnson QB So. Chattanooga

Running Backs

Alex Lakes RB SO Mercer
Alex Ramsey RB Fr. VMI
Alex Trotter RB So. Chattanooga
Andre Stoddard RB So. Wofford
Andy Riazzi RB Fr. Wofford
Anthony Preston RB SO Samford
Antonio Wilcox RB So. Furman
Artevius Smith RB RFr. ETSU
Austin Hayworth RB RSo. ETSU
Blake Morgan RB Fr. Wofford
Brice Tucker RB RSo. VMI
C.J. Goodman Jr. RB RS SR Western Carolina
Caleb Brown RB JR Mercer
Cam Jackson RB Jr. The Citadel
Chase Nelson RB Jr. Wofford
Chris Martin RB Jr. Wofford
Chris Miller RB Fr. Chattanooga
Connell Young RB FR Western Carolina
Corey Holloway RB RS SO Western Carolina
Cory Colder RB RSo. ETSU
Darius Morehead RB Fr. Furman
David Abee RB FR Samford
David Pascoe RB So. The Citadel
Dazmine Palmer RB Fr. VMI
Denzel Williams RB JR Samford
Deon Sanders RB Fr. Furman
Derrick Craine RB Sr. Chattanooga
Detrez Newsome RB JR Western Carolina
Devin Carper RB Fr. VMI
D. Spencer RB FR Western Carolina
Donovan Ward RB R-Fr. The Citadel
D. Monroe RB Fr. ETSU
Donte Maxson RB FR Mercer
Ellis Pace RB So. Wofford
Evan McField RB So. The Citadel
Falon Lee RB RJr. ETSU
Frank D’Alonzo RB FR Samford
Grant Drakeford RB So. The Citadel
Haddon Hill RB RFr. ETSU
Hunter Marshall RB RJr. VMI
H. Windham RB Jr. Wofford
Isiaha Smith RB Jr. The Citadel
Jajuan Lankford RB RSo. ETSU
Jajuan Stinson RB RSo. ETSU
Jake Wilks RB JR Samford
James Foushee RB RS SO Western Carolina
J. Chapman RB Fr. Wofford
JeTarii Donald RB JR Mercer
Jonathan Dorogy RB Jr. The Citadel
Jordan Williams RB R-Fr. The Citadel
Justin Curry RB FR Samford
Kealand Dirks RB R-Fr. Furman
K’rondis Larry RB SO Samford
Kyle Nalls RB So. Chattanooga
Kyle Vardo RB RJr. VMI
Lennox McAfee RB So. Wofford
Lorenzo Long RB Sr. Wofford
Luke Childress RB Jr. Wofford
Mason Dermott RB So. VMI
Matt Fox RB RFr. ETSU
Matt Thompson RB RFr. ETSU
Nate Pylant RB FR Mercer
Nick Colvin RB Sr. Wofford
Noah Mitchell RB R-Fr. Furman
Ostin McPherson RB Fr. Wofford
Payton Usher RB JR Mercer
Quan Myers RB So. VMI
Reggie Williams RB Jr. The Citadel
Richardre Bagley RB Jr. Chattanooga
Ridge Gibson RB R-Fr. Furman
Rod Johnson RB So. The Citadel
Roland Adams RB FR Samford
Skyler Matheson RB RS FR Western Carolina
Spencer Alverson RB R-Fr. Wofford
Stanley Robinson RB SR Samford
Tee Mitchell RB SO Mercer
Tony Drew RB RSo. ETSU
Triston Luke RB Fr. Furman
Tyain Smith RB Fr. VMI
Tyler Renew RB Sr. The Citadel
Will Gay RB Sr. Wofford

Wide Receivers

Aaron Sanders WR Sr. VMI
Adam Mitchell WR RFr. ETSU
Alec Mini WR Fr. VMI
A’lencio Graham WR R-Fr. Furman
Alex Johnson WR FR Western Carolina
Alphonso Stewart WR Jr. Chattanooga
Andrej Suttles WR R-Jr. Furman
Andrew Askew WR FR Western Carolina
Andrew Harris WR FR Samford
Andy Schumpert WR So. Furman
A. Spagnoletti WR RFr. ETSU
Armani Helligar WR So. Wofford
Austyn Hennings WR R-Fr. Wofford
Avery Ward WR SO Mercer
Bailey Rogers WR Fr. Furman
Bingo Morton WR So. Chattanooga
Brad Swan Jr. WR RS FR Western Carolina
B. Lemmons WR R-Fr. Furman
Braxton Richburg WR Fr. ETSU
Bryce Motes WR Jr. Wofford
C.J. Board WR Sr. Chattanooga
Caleb Woody WR Fr. ETSU
Cameron Scott WR Sr. The Citadel
Camiel Grant WR FR Mercer
Chad Pritchard WR Sr. ETSU
Chad Scott WR R-Jr. Furman
Chandler Curtis WR SO Mercer
Charles Johnson WR RS FR Western Carolina
Cole Cleary WR So. Wofford
Cole Staton WR SO Mercer
[Disqualified] WR N/A N/A
Dalton Ponchillia WR RJr. ETSU
Dane Forlines WR Sr. VMI
Daquan Patten WR FR Western Carolina
Darius Harvey WR FR Samford
Darius Means WR RS SO Western Carolina
Darius Tenney WR SR Mercer
Darrian Johnson WR RSr. VMI
DeAndre Schoultz WR Sr. The Citadel
D. McQuarters WR So. Chattanooga
Dijon Profit WR Fr. The Citadel
D. Wright-Linton WR Fr. Furman
Dorian Lindsey WR Fr. Wofford
Drake Powell WR So. ETSU
D’Vante Penamon WR JR Mercer
Elijah Mathes WR Fr. ETSU
E. Obajimi WR JR Samford
Evan Jager WR R-Fr. Furman
Gavin Sinclair WR SR Samford
Hank Black WR RSo. ETSU
Hunter Jacobs WR RS JR Western Carolina
Hunter Wike WR RSo. ETSU
Isaiah Gilmore WR Fr. ETSU
Isaiah Parker WR So. VMI
Jack Shoulders WR RFr. ETSU
Jacob Robinson WR RS FR Western Carolina
Jade Maher WR RSo. VMI
James Huston WR FR Samford
James Stovall WR Jr. Chattanooga
Jarred Hill WR RS JR Western Carolina
Jason Hill WR R-Fr. Wofford
Javeon Lara WR Fr. VMI
Javian Ramson WR JR Samford
Jay Gavin WR Fr. VMI
JD Tuten WR R-So. Furman
Jeff Bowens WR SO Mercer
Joey Brown WR RSo. VMI
Jordan Marshall WR JR Mercer
Jordan Mathis WR RS SO Western Carolina
Jorian Jordan WR Sr. The Citadel
Josh Jones WR JR Mercer
Josh LeBlanc WR Fr. The Citadel
Jovany Aris WR RSo. ETSU
Justin Anderson WR SO Samford
Justin Johnson WR FR Mercer
Karel Hamilton WR JR Samford
Keith Coffee WR Fr. ETSU
Kelvin McKnight WR FR Samford
Kendrick Jackson WR Fr. VMI
Kobe Kelley WR So. ETSU
Kota Nix WR So. Chattanooga
Kyle Harrell WR RJr. VMI
Lavell Ellerbe WR FR Western Carolina
Logan McCarter WR R-So. Furman
Luke Hill WR FR Samford
Malik Styles WR RSo. ETSU
Marquise Irvin WR FR Mercer
Matt Blaser WR Fr. VMI
Matt Williams WR Fr. ETSU
Merrick Mullins WR So. ETSU
R.J. Taylor WR Jr. Wofford
Randall Emerson WR RS SO Western Carolina
Rashad Riley WR Fr. The Citadel
Riley Davis WR Sr. Chattanooga
Rohan Martin WR Fr. VMI
Rudder Brown WR Sr. The Citadel
Ryan Knapp WR JR Mercer
Seth Greer WR Jr. The Citadel
S. Robinson WR RS SR Western Carolina
Steffon Hill WR SR Western Carolina
Taylor Stout WR Sr. VMI
Terryon Robinson WR RS JR Western Carolina
Thomas Gordon WR Fr. Furman
Tony Francois WR RSo. ETSU
Tyler Mitchell WR RS FR Western Carolina
Tyran Reynolds WR RS SO Western Carolina
Vaquan Small WR FR Samford
Vincent Lowe WR Jr. ETSU
Wade Smith WR Fr. Furman
Wen Burnette WR FR Samford
Whit Miller WR So. The Citadel
Wil Young WR So. Chattanooga
Will Wampler WR RFr. VMI
William Ramsey WR RS JR Western Carolina
Xavier Borishade WR Sr. Chattanooga

Tight ends

Ajay Williams TE R-Fr. Furman
Aubry Payne TE FR Western Carolina
Austin Phillips TE FR Western Carolina
Bailey Lenoir TE So. Chattanooga
Ben Cottingham TE FR Samford
Bijan Sirleaf TE FR Samford
Bryce Miller TE Fr. Chattanooga
Chad Jacob TE RJr. VMI
Chance Towery TE SO Western Carolina
Chandler Gouger TE Jr. Wofford
Chase Fisher TE FR Western Carolina
Chase Westfall TE FR Mercer
Clarke Miller TE FR Samford
Derek Owings TE JR Mercer
Devon Schmitt TE JR Samford
Duncan Fletcher TE Jr. Furman
Dylan Dockery TE So. ETSU
Eli Grambling TE JR Mercer
Grant Radakovich TE JR Mercer
Justin Gilliam TE So. ETSU
Kevin Carson TE RSo. VMI
Kevin Mall TE R-Jr. Furman
Kevin Marion TE FR Samford
Malcolm Colvin TE Jr. Chattanooga
M. Helms Jr. TE RS SR Western Carolina
Myles Taylor TE RFr. ETSU
Nic Hayes TE Fr. VMI
Nick Karas TE R-Fr. Wofford
Parrish Nichols TE FR Samford
Patrick Dolan TE Fr. VMI
Paul Leveritt TE RSo. ETSU
Riley Gessner TE Fr. Furman
Robert Brown TE JR Mercer
Roderick Poag TE RS JR Western Carolina
Ryan Swingle TE RJr. VMI
Sam Walker TE FR Mercer
Spencer McCoy TE RS FR Western Carolina
Stephen Antonelli TE RSo. ETSU
T.J. Novotny TE Jr. Wofford
Tony Philpot TE SR Samford
Trey Peppers TE FR Mercer
Troy Forrest TE SO Samford
Tyler Sexton TE SR Western Carolina
Tyler Small TE SO Samford
Zander Royston TE RFr. VMI

Offensive Linemen

Aaron Gallagher OL Unknown VMI
Alex Hooper OL Jr. Chattanooga
Alex Rios OL Jr. ETSU
Andrew Lewis OL Sr. VMI
Andrew Miles OL RS SO Western Carolina
Andy Clements OL JR Samford
Andy Godwin OL Fr. Furman
Anton Wahrby OL Sr. Wofford
Antwan Johnson OL FR Samford
A. Bonheur OL JR Samford
Asley Haynes OL RSo. ETSU
Attorney Gallman OL R-Fr. The Citadel
Austin Jacobs OL RS JR Western Carolina
Avery White OL JR Mercer
Bailey Byrum OL FR Western Carolina
Baker Richardson OL FR Samford
Ben Blackmon OL RFr. ETSU
Bennett Eibel OL FR Samford
Blake Jeresaty OL Fr. Wofford
Bo Layton OL Fr. Furman
Bradley Hann OL RSr. VMI
Bradley Way OL Sr. Wofford
Branden Parker OL So. Chattanooga
Brandon Berridge OL RS JR Western Carolina
Brent Rathbone OL RSo. ETSU
Bret Niederreither OL JR Mercer
Brett Steverson OL SO Mercer
Caleb Yates OL SO Mercer
Cameron Parker OL Fr. ETSU
Chad Mitchell OL FR Mercer
Chase Smith OL RSo. VMI
Chase Stehling OL RS SO Western Carolina
Chris Breedlove OL Fr. Furman
Chris Wade OL R-Fr. Furman
Chuck Rouse OL Jr. Wofford
Cody Cornelius OL So. ETSU
Cody Wyatt OL Fr. Furman
Cole Brummit OL RFr. VMI
Connor James OL Fr. ETSU
Connor Rafferty OL SO Samford
Corey Levin OL Sr. Chattanooga
Critt Johnson OL Fr. VMI
Dalton Sullivan OL R-Fr. Wofford
David Raschen OL JR Mercer
David Ricard OL JR Mercer
Dawson Ellis OL FR Mercer
Dequan Miller OL Sr. Wofford
Drew McEntyre OL Fr. The Citadel
Eddie Gajardo OL Fr. ETSU
Ethan James OL SR Western Carolina
Evan Horst OL Fr. Furman
Garrett Curtis OL RFr. ETSU
Garrett Smith OL JR Mercer
George Grimwade OL FR Samford
Gordon Crozier OL JR Samford
Greg McCloud OL RSo. ETSU
G. Bromelow OL SR Samford
Hal Weaver OL SO Mercer
Harrison Monk OL R-Jr. Furman
H. Naumann OL SR Samford
Hugh McFaddin OL Jr. The Citadel
Hunter Townson OL Jr. Chattanooga
Isaiah Pinson OL Jr. The Citadel
I. Roseborough OL RSr. VMI
Jack Bryant OL R-Fr. Furman
Jack Lightsey OL JR Mercer
J. Buonamia OL Jr. Furman
Jacob Conrad OL Fr. Furman
Jacob Milam OL R-Fr. Wofford
Jacob Revis OL Jr. Chattanooga
Jared Braiman OL Fr. VMI
J. Jacon-Duffy OL So. Wofford
J. Bockhorst OL Fr. Furman
J. Bolds-Lockwood OL Jr. Wofford
Jordan Veal OL RSr. VMI
Josh Andre OL Fr. VMI
Josh Burger OL Fr. Wofford
Josh Cardiello OL Jr. Chattanooga
Justin Lott OL Jr. Wofford
Justus Basinger OL R-Fr. Wofford
Kaleb Spry OL RS SO Western Carolina
K. Cadwell OL So. Chattanooga
Kevin McConnell OL RFr. ETSU
Kirby Southard OL JR Mercer
Kyle Weaver OL Sr. The Citadel
Lakin McCall OL Fr. ETSU
Liam Ronan OL R-Fr. Wofford
Malcolm White OL Fr. Chattanooga
Mark Weakland OL Fr. The Citadel
Mason McNutt OL RFr. ETSU
Matt Brewer OL RSo. ETSU
Matt Milner OL RJr. VMI
Matt Pyke OL RSo. ETSU
Matthew Bair OL FR Western Carolina
Matthew Holland OL FR Samford
Matthew Pittarelli OL FR Samford
Matthew Schmidt OL So. Furman
Max Ford OL So. The Citadel
Michael Ralph OL R-Fr. Wofford
Michael Scates OL RSo. ETSU
Mike Jones OL Jr. Wofford
Mike Rentz OL So. The Citadel
Mitch Mathes OL FR Mercer
Mitch Payne OL JR Mercer
Myles Smith OL RFr. ETSU
Nathan Dalton OL RS SO Western Carolina
Nick Jeffreys OL Sr. The Citadel
Nick Taylor OL So. Wofford
Patrick Doucette OL RJr. VMI
Patrick McFall OL RSo. ETSU
P. Howard-Whitaker OL Fr. The Citadel
Reed Kroeber OL Fr. Furman
Reid Huddleston OL FR Samford
Robert Hatcher OL SO Samford
Ronnie Brooks OL Fr. Wofford
Roo Daniels OL Jr. Wofford
Ross Demmel OL So. Wofford
Royus Amos OL JR Samford
Ryan Bednar OL Sr. The Citadel
Ryan Hughes OL JR Samford
Sam Arrington OL JR Mercer
Sammy Hall OL RJr. ETSU
Sawaar Canady OL Fr. VMI
Sean Biette OL RS SO Western Carolina
Spencer Campbell OL RS FR Western Carolina
Stanley Smith OL FR Mercer
Stephen Miller OL RJr. VMI
Sydney Martin OL So. The Citadel
Tanner Poindexter OL RS JR Western Carolina
Taylor Helton OL Fr. Chattanooga
Terrell Bush OL So. Furman
T. Marchman OL SO Mercer
Thomas Pietro OL JR Mercer
Tim Coleman OL Fr. Furman
T. Harkleroad OL So. The Citadel
Truett Moss OL FR Mercer
Tyler Davis OL So. The Citadel
Tyler Kisling OL Fr. VMI
Tyler Martin OL Fr. Chattanooga
Tyler Thacker OL RFr. VMI
Walker Hays OL RJr. VMI
Walker Lanning OL RS FR Western Carolina
Wesley Carter OL SR Samford
Will Morris OL RFr. VMI
William Matney OL FR Samford
Wilson Heres OL SR Mercer
Wyatt Burnette OL FR Western Carolina
Zac Rice OL FR Mercer
Zac Saalweachter OL RS FR Western Carolina
Zach Weeks OL RS SO Western Carolina

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Preseason football ratings and rankings, featuring The Citadel (and the rest of the SoCon)

Posted on July 4, 2016 by Sandlapper Spike

Hey, let’s look at preseason rankings and ratings!

First up, some rankings…

—

I went to my local Barnes & Noble to check out some preseason magazines. Not all of them include a section for FCS teams, but a few do.

The Sporting News has The Citadel in its preseason Top 25, at #21. However, TSN thinks the Bulldogs will only finish 3rd in the Southern Conference:

1 – Chattanooga (#8 in the Top 25)
2 – Wofford (#19 in the Top 25)
3 – The Citadel (#21 in the Top 25)
4 – Samford
5 – Mercer
6 – Western Carolina
7 – Furman
8 – VMI
9 – East Tennessee State

Lindy’s only has one SoCon team in its top 25 (Chattanooga is ranked 11th). The magazine’s projected conference standings look like this:

1 – Chattanooga
2 – Western Carolina
3 – Mercer
4 – The Citadel
5 – Samford
6 – Wofford
7 – Furman
8 – VMI
9 – East Tennessee State

Athlon doesn’t have an FCS section in its magazine, but its online presence does have an FCS Top 25. The Citadel is ranked 10th in that preseason poll (UTC is #7).

—

Last season, I started to incorporate the Massey Ratings into my weekly previews as the season progressed. For the uninitiated, a quick primer on this ratings system:

Ken Massey is a math professor at Carson-Newman whose ratings system was used (with several others) for fifteen years by the BCS. He has ratings for a wide variety of sports, but most of the attention surrounding his work has been focused on college football.

A quick introduction of the Massey Ratings, from its website:

The Massey Ratings are designed to measure past performance, not necessarily to predict future outcomes…overall team rating is a merit based quantity, and is the result of applying a Bayesian win-loss correction to the power rating.

…In contrast to the overall rating, the Power is a better measure of potential and is less concerned with actual wins-losses.

…A team’s Offense power rating essentially measures the ability to score points. This does not distinguish how points are scored, so good defensive play that leads to scoring will be reflected in the Offense rating. In general, the offensive rating can be interpretted as the number of points a team would be expected to score against an average defense.

Similarly, a team’s Defense power rating reflects the ability to prevent its opponent from scoring. An average defense will be rated at zero. Positive or negative defensive ratings would respectively lower or raise the opponent’s expected score accordingly.

…the Massey model will in some sense minimize the unexplained error (noise). Upsets will occur and it is impossible (and also counter-productive) to get an exact fit to the actual game outcomes. Hence, I publish an estimated standard deviation. About 68% of observed game results will fall within one standard deviation of the expected (“average”) result.

…Preseason ratings are typically derived as a weighted average of previous years’ final ratings. As the current season progresses, their effect gets damped out completely. The only purpose preseason ratings serve is to provide a reasonable starting point for the computer. Mathematically, they guarantee a unique solution to the equations early in the season when not enough data is available yet.

In other words, preseason ratings mean very little. However, it’s July and we certainly need something to keep us going until college football season starts!

—

Massey rates every college football team — not just FBS and FCS squads, but D-2, D-3, NAIA, junior colleges, even Canadian schools. This season, there are preseason ratings for 923 colleges and universities.

This year, The Citadel is #113 overall in the preseason ratings. As a comparison, the Bulldogs were the preseason #174 squad last season.

As for the teams on The Citadel’s schedule:

  • Mercer — #204
  • Furman — #199
  • Gardner-Webb — #261
  • Western Carolina — #143
  • North Greenville — #312
  • Chattanooga — #106
  • Wofford — #172
  • East Tennessee State — #554
  • Samford — #149
  • VMI — #224
  • North Carolina — #24

Massey gives the Bulldogs a 5% chance of beating North Carolina. You may recall that last year’s preseason odds gave The Citadel a 1% chance of beating South Carolina. You may also recall that The Citadel finished 2016 as the transitive ACC Coastal Division champions.

One of the neat things about the Massey Ratings website is that it has matchup simulations — single games, best-of-seven series, etc. After refreshing a few times, I came up with a simulated result that favored the Bulldogs over UNC (by a 39-38 score). The average score of the simulations was 44-17 North Carolina, but I’m sure that was due to a programming error.

As for the other ten games on The Citadel’s schedule…believe it or not, the Bulldogs are currently projected to win all of them. The likelihood of that happening is remote, obviously, but it’s definitely a far cry from past prognostications.

I’ll go ahead and list the percentage chances of The Citadel winning each of those games, along with the median score, as calculated by the Massey Ratings:

  • at Mercer — 78% (30-17)
  • Furman — 87% (31-14)
  • at Gardner-Webb — 89% (27-7)
  • at Western Carolina — 56% (28-26)
  • North Greenville — 97% (41-10)
  • Chattanooga — 51% (24-23)
  • at Wofford — 66% (28-21)
  • East Tennessee State — 100% (48-3)
  • Samford — 70% (34-24)
  • at VMI — 83% (35-20)

To be honest, I’m not buying all of those ratings, even from a preseason ratings perspective.

I’m particularly dubious about the ratings for Mercer and North Greenville, and I’m not so sure about Furman’s numbers, either (I think all of them should be significantly higher). Also, Massey’s algorithm doesn’t account for SoCon officiating, especially for games played in Spartanburg.

—

As for FCS-only ratings, here is a list of select schools:

  • North Dakota State – 1
  • Northern Iowa – 2
  • Jacksonville State – 3
  • Illinois State – 4
  • South Dakota State – 5
  • Dartmouth – 6
  • Harvard – 7
  • Chattanooga – 8
  • Western Illinois – 9
  • Youngstown State – 10
  • The Citadel – 11
  • Southern Utah – 12
  • Richmond – 13
  • Charleston Southern – 14
  • Southern Illinois – 15
  • Montana – 16
  • Coastal Carolina – 21
  • Western Carolina – 22
  • James Madison – 23
  • William & Mary – 26
  • Samford – 27
  • Villanova – 28
  • Liberty – 34
  • Wofford – 39
  • Towson – 46
  • Furman – 49
  • Lehigh – 50
  • Mercer – 52
  • Presbyterian – 57
  • VMI – 61
  • Elon – 68
  • Delaware – 70
  • South Carolina State – 76
  • Kennesaw State – 77
  • Dayton – 81
  • Gardner-Webb – 82
  • Jacksonville – 88
  • Campbell – 102
  • Davidson – 120
  • East Tennessee State – 122
  • Mississippi Valley State – 125

The highest-rated FCS school is, naturally, North Dakota State, which checks in at #60 overall. Other schools in the “overall” list that may be of interest:

  • Alabama – 1
  • Ohio State – 2
  • Mississippi – 3
  • Stanford – 4
  • Clemson – 5
  • Arkansas – 6
  • Tennessee – 7
  • LSU – 8
  • Oklahoma – 9
  • Mississippi State – 10
  • Notre Dame – 14
  • Auburn – 17
  • Georgia – 18
  • Florida State – 20
  • Texas A&M – 22
  • Florida – 27
  • Navy – 33
  • Louisville – 35
  • Toledo – 39
  • Texas – 42
  • Miami (FL) – 46
  • Georgia Tech – 48
  • Virginia Tech – 49
  • North Carolina State – 55
  • South Carolina – 58
  • Georgia Southern – 59
  • Duke – 64
  • Virginia – 67
  • Maryland – 69
  • Vanderbilt – 70
  • Appalachian State – 71
  • Kentucky – 72
  • Northwest Missouri – 77 (highest-ranked Division II team)
  • Boston College – 78
  • Air Force – 79
  • East Carolina – 85
  • Wake Forest – 92
  • Calgary – 111 (highest-ranked Canadian team)
  • Kansas – 116
  • Army – 121
  • Idaho – 141
  • Tulane – 144
  • UCF – 154
  • Wyoming – 155
  • UTEP – 156
  • Hawai’i – 157
  • New Mexico State – 158
  • City College of San Francisco – 159 (highest-ranked junior college team)
  • Old Dominion – 161
  • Mt. Union – 175 (highest-ranked Division III team)
  • ULM – 176
  • Eastern Michigan – 181
  • North Texas – 192
  • Charlotte – 198
  • Marian (IN) – 244 (highest-ranked NAIA team)

The overall Top 10 is very SEC-heavy, similar to the MVC flavor for the FCS Top 10.

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