Quick thoughts on The Citadel’s first football game of 2022

Well, my first quick thought is that I was glad when the game ended…

Stats of interest:

The Citadel Campbell
Field Position 25.33 39.22
Success Rate 32.08% 45.00%
Big plays (20+ yards) 2 3*
Finishing drives (average points) 3.33 4.14
Turnovers 3 1
Expected turnovers 1.94 0.72
Possessions 9 9
Points per possession 1.1 3.2
Offensive Plays 53 60
Yards/rush (sacks taken out) 4.04 5.53
Yards/pass attempt (including sacks) 5.33 7.41
Yards/play 4.19 6.22
3rd down conversions 4 of 13 6 of 13
4th down conversions 2 of 3 3 of 3
Red Zone TD% 50.00% 50.00%
Net punting 31.3 28.5
Time of possession 32:34 27:26
TOP/offensive play 36.87 sec 27.43 sec
Penalties 9 for 83 yards 9 for 85 yards
1st down passing 1-1, 19 yards, TD** 4-8, 36 yards, 1 sack against
3rd and long passing 1-2, 5 yards, 1 INT, 1 sack against 3-5, 42 yards, TD
4th down passing 1-1, 11 yards 2-2, 38 yards
1st down yards/play 5.11 5.32
3rd down average yards to go 7.31 8.31
Defensive 3-and-outs+ 1 4

*Not included: a 21-yard run for a would-be TD partly negated by a downfield holding penalty; the net gain on the play for the Camels was 11 yards
** An additional first down completion for 10 yards in the 2nd quarter for The Citadel was wiped out by a holding penalty

I believe the time of possession listed in the above table is correct. An error in the official scorebook originally credited The Citadel with over 14 minutes of possession time in the 2nd quarter.

[Edit: this has now been officially corrected.]

A few observations:

  • The Citadel gained 2 or fewer yards on 42.1% of its first down plays.
  • In the 3rd quarter, The Citadel ran 14 offensive plays. Only one of them would statistically be considered “successful”. The shuffling of the o-line after starting center Mike Bartilucci was injured might have been a factor.
  • Sawyer Whitman, a freshman OL from Gaffney, made his first career appearance for the Bulldogs.
  • Almost half (26) of The Citadel’s 53 offensive plays came on the Bulldogs’ first two drives. The Citadel only scored 3 points on those possessions.
  • The Citadel’s nine possessions ended as follows: TD (1), FG (1), punt (3), interception (2), lost fumble (1), and turnover on downs (1).
  • On seven of its nine possessions, Campbell had a first down inside the Bulldogs’ 40-yard line. Considering that two of those drives began inside the 40, and a third one started right at The Citadel’s 40, the Bulldogs’ defense did a good job mostly keeping the Camels out of the end zone after Campbell’s first two possessions.
  • Campbell’s nine possessions ended as follows: TD (3), FG (3), punt (2), end of half (1). (The Camels’ one turnover came on special teams.)
  • The scorebook participation list (which is not official) lists 48 Bulldogs as having played in Thursday night’s game. I tend to think the actual number was 46, but I can’t be sure.
  • Campbell’s participation list included 62 players.
  • The Bulldogs have to do better than average 31 net punting yards, although if one-third of all punts are muffed by the opponents, that would be an acceptable trade-off.
  • James Platte is the first Bulldog to appear in a game this season who doesn’t have a biographical writeup on the school website.
  • It appears that Ben Brockington (now #97) and John Hewlett (#73) have traded jersey numbers.
  • As of September 5, Alex Ramsey, the graduate transfer from VMI, is no longer listed on The Citadel’s online roster.
  • The Citadel committed far too many penalties (9 for 83 yards). The false starts and holds can be (and were) drive-killers, but the personal foul/unnecessary roughness/unsportsmanlike conduct infractions simply made me shake my head. Those are completely unacceptable.
  • During his Monday afternoon press conference, Brent Thompson confirmed that starting strong safety Wilson Hendricks III is out for the season. That will be a tough blow for the defense. Hendricks, a sophomore from Travelers Rest, led the team in tackles last season (and had seven stops against Campbell).

The Citadel must be a lot better on Saturday in its home opener against East Tennessee State. In their first game, the Buccaneers did exactly what a good team would be expected to do against an overmatched opponent, blasting Mars Hill 44-7.

I might have more to say later in the week.

The Citadel begins its 2022 football campaign

After a long, long offseason, it’s time for pigskin activity!

This is a joyful time of year for college football fans. I’m very mindful of that essential happiness, and I would never want to detract from it in any way.

A few years ago, I was sitting in front of my TV, preparing to enjoy the first night of college basketball for that season. On ESPN, the studio host (I forget who it was) turned to Jay Bilas and asked him a perfunctory question about what Bilas would like to see on the court.

Bilas, one of the most earnest killjoys in the entire media landscape, immediately stated that he wished two-thirds of the teams in Division I would be eliminated. If you were watching and a fan of one of the 240 or so schools Bilas wanted to evict from D-1, his commentary really wasn’t what you wanted to hear on opening night. 

I don’t want to be that kind of wet blanket.

With that in mind, while I don’t want to bury college football just as the season is starting, I’m not inclined to praise it right now, either. The off-season machinations have taken a toll. The constant realignment (and realignment discussion, which might be worse), the incessant focus on NIL, the sense that college athletics are no longer about schools and teams but rather “brands” and “products”…it’s all been a bit much.

The light at the end of the tunnel for the college sports industrial complex might be an oncoming train. It is likely in the not-too-distant future that there will be 30-odd schools which license their school logos for the benefit of minor league football teams, keeping all of the seductive TV money (as opposed to just taking most of the cash, as is the case now), and relegating the other schools to an alternative reality, one that ultimately might not include scholarships — basically what D-3 is now. 

(The basketball tournament will eventually suffer the same fate, though that situation is slightly more complicated. I am convinced separation there is inevitable as well, however. Jay Bilas would probably approve.)

What all that will mean for college sports in general, including the varsity teams at The Citadel, is TBD. I don’t think the odds are good that it will be positive, though.

Okay, I’ve got that out of the way.

Another issue, in terms of how I’ve operated this blog in past years, is that I no longer have the time or (frankly) enthusiasm to produce weekly preview posts during the gridiron season. That would be true even if I were more hopeful about the current state of college sports. It would also be the case regardless of The Citadel’s season outlook.

I’ll still have things to say, but perhaps not weekly, and not about specific games. I had basically run my game preview format into the ground, anyway.

For this post, I am just going to hit a few topics surrounding the program, some more important than others.

This week, I’ll also throw in some of the usual stuff about the upcoming opponent for the Bulldogs, the Campbell University Fighting Camels. 

I’m going to start with something positive.

I have written extensively about The Citadel’s uniforms over the years (usually, I have been greatly annoyed).

I’m pleased with these uniforms, though. This is much more in line with what I have always wanted to see.

Is it exactly what I would want? Maybe not, but that doesn’t matter. All in all, these togs are more than satisfactory.

A brief comment on the status of the East Stands at Johnson Hagood Stadium:

Simply put, I am ready to hear an announcement and see work being done. I have been ready for a couple of years now.

The delay on the rebuild has been too long, even taking the pandemic into consideration. I don’t think that is a controversial opinion; at this point, actually, I’m not sure it’s an opinion as much as objective fact.

The Citadel’s FBS opponent this season is Appalachian State. Future FBS opponents for the Bulldogs currently include Georgia Southern (2023), Clemson (2024), Mississippi (2025), and Charlotte (2026). 

Counting last season and this one, that means The Citadel will only face two P5 teams over a six-year period. I think a fair amount of supporters are somewhat disappointed in this, even if the net revenue from those matchups isn’t much different than that gained from playing G5 programs.

There is something to be said for playing “big-time” schools with instant name recognition. Also, given the more-than-decent chance that in less than a decade, schools like The Citadel might not have the chance to play P5 squads, loading up on them in the 2027-2032 time period might not be a bad idea. Those games should be scheduled while they are still an option.

I should note that The Citadel does not always immediately release future scheduling information, particularly for games to be played several years down the road. Perhaps it is time for another FOIA request…

With the perspective of time, there is a good chance that maintaining the corps of cadets over the course of the entire 2020-21 school year will be considered one of the great achievements in The Citadel’s history. The administration should receive a lot of credit for that accomplishment.

That isn’t to say the pandemic didn’t have a long-lasting effect on the status of the corps. It certainly did. The Citadel had higher-than-normal attrition rates (as did many other schools), and that is reflected in the very large freshman class which reported earlier this month.  

That effect can also be observed by perusing The Citadel’s football roster (and, for that matter, the rosters of almost every other college football program).

With COVID-19, the “free year” granted by the NCAA because of COVID-19, the change in transfer rules — well, these are unusual times in college football (and everywhere else). The only period in NCAA history that can even compare is the era following World War II, when there were significantly relaxed eligibility standards.

Because of all this tumult, I am more tolerant than I ordinarily would be for the influx of graduate transfers on The Citadel’s roster. 

The Citadel currently has 13 grad transfers on the football team — not 11 or 12, as you might have seen reported elsewhere. Overall, there are 114 players on the squad as of August 28.

That number of grad transfers wouldn’t be seen as enormous in a lot of places, but it is a true eye-opener at the military college. From going over past rosters, it appears that over the 12 years prior to this season The Citadel had a total of 13 graduate transfers.

With the outsized attrition caused by COVID-19 (among other things), I can understand this season being something of a one-off. 

I do not want it to become a trend, however. On this issue, I know that I am regarded by some as an out-of-touch fuddy-duddy who doesn’t understand “what we need to do to win”, and that I need to “get with the times!”

I don’t mind an occasional grad transfer; after all, The Citadel has excellent graduate programs and there is nothing wrong with publicizing them. I’m not on board with bringing in a dozen or so every year, though. I believe it is ultimately counter-productive on the field, and it isn’t in keeping with the school’s primary mission.

The Citadel’s core strength in recruiting varsity athletes should be its ability to find and develop high school talent. As far as grad transfers are concerned, the college is unlikely to be consistently successful by doing what every other school is doing. I think recruiting (almost) exclusively at the high school level is a perfect way to zig when the competition is zagging.

Having said all that, I will naturally be rooting hard for anyone wearing the light blue and white, regardless of where they played last year. 

I mentioned above that there are 114 Bulldogs on the current roster. As best as I can determine by looking over previous seasons, 89 of them have three or four years of college eligibility remaining (including the upcoming campaign).

From what I can tell, eight of the graduate transfers have multiple years of eligibility remaining; one of them actually has three.

More on retention/attrition:

I went through the lists of signing classes from 2017 through 2022 for The Citadel. That is six years’ worth of signees. It is possible for a player from a 2015 (or even 2014) signing class to still be an active college player, but that would obviously be somewhat unusual, even in the COVID-19 “free year” era.

I believe the only 2017 signee for The Citadel still playing college football is Sean-Thomas Faulkner, who played three years for the Bulldogs, graduated, and is currently in his second season with North Texas. 

Faulkner, the pride of Easley, SC, was an excellent player for The Citadel who now starts at safety for the Mean Green. (Irrelevant but personal note: I think he is also the only gridder to play for the alma maters of both my father and my mother.)

Another player who began his football career at The Citadel in the fall of 2017 is Brian Horn, who while not a listed signee at the time has nevertheless enjoyed a fine career for the Bulldogs, including a stint as last season’s military captain. Horn will start at linebacker for The Citadel on Thursday.

There are six players on the Bulldogs’ roster who were part of the 18-member signing class from 2018 — Chris Beverly, Marquise Blount, Caleb Deveaux, Kyler Estes, Destin Mack, and Nkem Njoku. Ideally, there would be a few more players from this class still on the team. 

Two other players who started their respective careers at The Citadel in 2018 also remain on the roster — defensive lineman Jay Smith and running back Sam Llewellyn. Both have made an impact on the field.

Of the 26 signees from 2019, only ten are still on The Citadel’s squad, a painfully obvious problem when it comes to program continuity and roster construction. This group would now mostly consist of fourth-year players with either two or three years of eligibility remaining (depending on if they redshirted).

From 2020, 14 of 16 signees are still Bulldogs, as are 15 of the 21 signees from 2021 (the latter being a bit concerning). The most recent signing class, from 2022, featured 17 signees, 16 of whom are currently on the roster.

For the last five signing classes, there were 98 signees. Of those, 61 are still in the program.

Stats interlude

For anyone interested (and I’m not sure anybody should be), here is a spreadsheet that includes various offensive statistics for the 2021 SoCon season and the 2021 FCS season as a whole. Categories include my infamous “go rate” statistic, points per possession, points per play, etc.

I was going to post about them (and include defensive stats too), but never got around to doing so, and it’s too late now. 

2021 offensive stats, SoCon-only and FCS

How excited is Campbell to leave the Big South and join the CAA for the 2022-23 school year? Well, listen to the perspective from the school’s sports announcers, including these comments:

I consider it a trade-up in many factors, right? College of Charleston, ten times better than Charleston Southern. You add Elon over High Point, [Elon] is a much more stable campus. You add William and Mary over a school like Longwood — nothing against them, just an upgrade there…UNCW is a huge upgrade over ‘insert any team’ in the Big South…there are so many ways to build tradition here in the Carolinas [with the move to the CAA].

You’re not going to be up there every weekend, but you’re in Boston, you’re in Philadelphia, you’re in Long Island, you’re in the DC metro area. It’s going to do something, not only for the athletic department and in expanding recruiting, but it’s going to do something for this university too, and that was a big reason [for joining the CAA]. It’s academics and athletics that really facilitated this move.

Campbell’s motto is “the private university of choice in North Carolina”, and the way to expand on that is become the private university of choice in the Carolinas, into Virginia, into DC…let’s face it, there is pride in this state in being a Campbell alum. That’s not necessarily the case all over the country, so I think [joining the CAA] will help tremendously.

I will say that the northern reach of the CAA would not appear at first glance to be of great appeal to Campbell, which traditionally has been a stay-closer-to-home type of school. More than 80% of its on-campus undergraduate students are from North Carolina, in contrast to Elon (only 17%) and High Point (21%).

Thursday will be the first gridiron meeting between The Citadel and Campbell (the two schools will play again in 2023, at Johnson Hagood Stadium). In other sports, The Citadel’s record against Campbell is as follows:

  • Basketball: 2-7
  • Baseball: 14-2-1
  • Wrestling: 24-17
  • Tennis: 10-5
  • Volleyball: 0-3

Campbell has no fewer than six non-conference games this season (perhaps another reason CU is happy to join the CAA). Those matchups are: The Citadel, at William and Mary, at East Carolina, North Carolina Central, at Jackson State, and at Delaware State.

Future FBS opponents for the Fighting Camels include North Carolina in 2023, Liberty in 2024, North Carolina State in 2025 and 2028, and Florida in 2026.

As of August 28, Campbell had 124 players on its online football roster. Four of them do not have a hometown (or high school) listed. Of the remaining 120 players, 47 are from North Carolina. Other states represented: Florida (21 players), Virginia (13), Georgia (11), South Carolina (8), Texas (3), Alabama (2), Michigan (2), New York (2), Ohio (2), and one each from California, Delaware, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee.

Freshman linebacker Marquis Roberts is from Washington, DC, while graduate student punter Corey Petersen is a native of Traralgon, Australia.

Petersen is one of several Camels who began their collegiate careers at other institutions. Petersen is in his second year as Campbell’s punter; his first D-1 school was Austin Peay.

Other four-year colleges and universities from which current Camels previously matriculated include Army, Bowling Green, Coastal Carolina, East Carolina, East Tennessee State, Eastern Michigan, Iowa State, McNeese State, Mercer, Minnesota, Monmouth, Old Dominion, Southern Illinois, UCF, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest (two players), and Western Carolina.

The Citadel’s roster includes 55 players from South Carolina. Other states represented by Bulldogs: Georgia (17 players), Florida (15), North Carolina (8), Virginia (7), Ohio (3), New York (2), and one each from Alabama, California, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.

Campbell landed the #1 recruiting class in FCS this spring, according to both 247Sports [89th overall] and Rivals.

…the Camels are welcoming in 11 signees with three- or four-star designations, per the major services.

Another ranking has Campbell with three of the top 11 FCS signees, four of the top 26 and five of the division’s top 37.

I think the first thing was, the Transfer Portal,” says [Campbell head football coach Mike Minter]…“You look at that and say and this is going to really affect college football. When I saw Alabama getting into the Portal, getting guys, I said if Alabama is doing it, this is about to turn into free agency for real. I said high school kids aren’t going to have as many homes, and we’re going to be very aggressive going after three-, four-, five-stars.

“We went after kids two years ago where people would say you don’t have a shot at them. Those kids are looking to be recruited, and wanted opportunity, and had been told and promised a lotta things. My biggest deal is be honest and authentic.”

In an interview last week, Mike Minter sounded confident about this season. He was quick to praise quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams, saying that the redshirt junior from Atlanta is “magical with the football in his hand”. 

Williams, a dual-threat QB, only played in four games last season due to injury, but is the preseason first-team All-Big South quarterback (one of three first-team offensive selections for the Camels).

Minter also called his offensive line “the biggest in FCS football”. CU’s projected starters on the o-line average 6’5″, 331 lbs.

Campbell will have a largely new offensive coaching staff this season. Minter invoked the old Oakland Raiders (“Al Davis, man — go deep!”) when describing how he would like his offense to operate.

Campbell was a fairly aggressive team in 2021, with 32 fourth down conversion attempts, tied for 12th nationally (The Citadel, with 41 attempts, was 3rd). That is reflected in the Camels’ “go rate” of 36.36%, which ranked 12th nationally (the Bulldogs were 5th, at 44.09%).

CU passed (or attempted to pass) on 54.4% of its offensive plays last season.

Campbell has a star on defense in Brevin Allen, the reigning Big South Defensive Player of the Year. The redshirt senior from Greensboro had 17½ tackles for loss last season, including 9½ sacks. 

Last year, the Camels were good at creating takeaways (25) and converting them into big plays (4 defensive touchdowns). The Bulldogs will need to be “strong with the ball” on Thursday night.

Quick hitters:

  • The game against Campbell will be streamed on ESPN+; announcers are Chris Hemeyer (play-by-play) and Peter Montemuro (analyst).
  • Luke Mauro and Lee Glaze return in 2022 as The Citadel’s radio team. They can be heard online and also on three radio stations statewide: WQNT (102.1-FM/1450-AM) in Charleston, WQXL (100.7-FM/1470-AM) in Columbia, and WDXY (105.9-FM/1240-AM) in Sumter.
  • Brent Thompson lost some weight this off-season. 
  • The Philadelphia 76ers will be in Charleston in September, which wasn’t a huge surprise — but I think some folks in the media world were caught off guard by the news that Doc Rivers and company will be holding training camp at McAlister Field House.
  • The weather forecast for Thursday night in Buies Creek, per the National Weather Service: partly cloudy, with a low of 66°.
  • Campbell’s online preview has been posted, as have CU’s game notes.
  • According to one source that deals in such matters, Campbell is a 3-point favorite over The Citadel (over/under of 55½). That is not surprising, and is generally in line with various preseason computer ratings (which for the two teams are quite similar). The Camels are getting the standard “home field advantage” spread bump. [Edit: well, that line moved quickly; in three hours, it jumped to Campbell -9½.]
  • The Citadel’s game notes are out; initially, the depth chart featured a 278-lb. wide receiver and a punter not on the current roster. That was quickly corrected.
  • Hey, it’s the first week of the season for Athletic Communications, too. As we all know, there are no preseason games in college football. Next week’s press conference needs to be streamed, however.
  • Personally, I would prefer less gamesmanship when it comes to naming the starting quarterback, but then again I’m not a coach.
  • At least The Citadel has a depth chart, which is more than you can say for Texas.

I have no idea what to expect on Thursday night. I hope the Bulldogs are as upbeat and confident as Mike Minter, who clearly has high expectations for his squad this season. Of course, he’s not the only former Nebraska player coaching a team with big hopes for 2022 despite winning only 3 games last year.

(I’ll assume Minter wasn’t celebrating any vomiting by his offensive linemen in fall practice.)

I think it is important for The Citadel to get off to a good start. That is always true, but it is particularly the case for a team that in 2021 had a tendency to fall behind early (often via big plays by the opposing offense).

The Bulldogs did finish last season with consecutive victories, including an unexpected triumph at Chattanooga. That is something to build upon.

We shall see what the opening game (and the season to come) has in store. 

Go Dogs!

College Football Week 12, 2021: Thursday notes and observations

The Citadel’s game notes

Brent Thompson’s weekly press conference

Chattanooga’s game notes

Chattanooga’s weekly press conference (featuring head coach Rusty Wright and two players)

SoCon weekly release

Broadcast information

The Citadel at Chattanooga, to be played at Finley Stadium – Davenport Field in Chattanooga, Tennessee, with kickoff at 1:30 pm ET on November 20, 2021.

The game will be streamed on ESPN+. Play-by-play will be handled by Chris Goforth, while Scott McMahen supplies the analysis. Dave Keylon is the sideline reporter.

The contest can be heard on radio via The Citadel Sports Network. WQNT-1450 AM [audio link], originating in Charleston, will be the flagship station. Other stations carrying the game include WQXL in Columbia (100.7 FM/1470 AM) and WDXY in Sumter (105.9 FM/1240 AM).

Luke Mauro (the “Voice of the Bulldogs”) calls the action alongside analyst Lee Glaze.

“Live Stats” for the game

Here is my weekly compilation spreadsheet of FCS stats:

FCS statistics through games of November 13, 2021

I did not have time this week to further summarize the stats (top 5/bottom 5, matchup comparisons, etc.). Apologies for anyone interested, but I’ve been rather busy this week, which is why there wasn’t an earlier post.

Statistically speaking, Chattanooga generally fares well across the board, particularly in defensive categories. The Mocs are 11th in points allowed per game in FCS, and fourth in estimated points per Red Zone possession. Chattanooga is also second nationally in interceptions per opponents’ passes, behind only St. Thomas; Chattanooga has picked off a pass every 17.87 opponent attempts this season.

UTC is 4th in FCS in time of possession (averaging 33:29 TOP per game). This is in keeping with the Mocs’ general pace on offense (Chattanooga is also 4th in seconds per offensive play). 

On the whole, I would describe Chattanooga as being rather conservative on offense. The “go rate” for the Mocs is 4th-lowest in FCS; only Eastern Kentucky and Montana State have fewer fourth down attempts.

Chattanooga is 15th in run percentage (60.2% of its offensive plays are rushes).

Roster review:

–  Of the 112 players on The Citadel’s online roster, 61 are from South Carolina. Other states represented: Georgia (18 players), Florida (11), North Carolina (9), Virginia (4), Alabama (2), Texas (2), and one each from New York, Oklahoma, Ohio, and Tennessee.

Tight end Hayden Williamson played his high school football in Okinawa, Japan.

– There are 94 players on Chattanooga’s roster. Of those, 32 are from Georgia, while another 30 are from Tennessee. The remaining players are from the following states: Alabama (13), Florida (4), South Carolina (4), North Carolina (2), Ohio (2), and one each from Arizona, Indiana, Mississippi, Texas, and Virginia.

Long snapper Bryce Coulson is from Brisbane, Australia, while wide receiver Jahmar Quandt is a native of St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands.

– The Mocs’ squad includes players who transferred from the following four-year institutions and junior colleges: Appalachian State, Arkansas State, Austin Peay, Bethel, Cincinnati (2), East Mississippi CC, Eastern Illinois, Georgia Military, Hutchinson CC, Jacksonville State, Lafayette, Louisville (2), Mercer, Middle Tennessee State, Minot State, Mississippi State, Naropa, North Dakota State, Northern Illinois, Old Dominion, Purdue, Rhode Island, South Carolina (2), Tennessee Tech (2), and Western Kentucky (4).

As has been the case over the latter part of the season, FCS spreads and totals are not readily available. There are some lines out there, and I’ll list those involving SoCon teams here:

  • Wofford is a 38½-point underdog at North Carolina
  • VMI is a 10½-point favorite over Western Carolina
  • Samford is a 2½-point favorite over Furman
  • East Tennessee State is a 4½-point favorite over Mercer
  • Chattanooga is a 23½-point favorite over The Citadel

Finally, here are this week’s numbers from my projection system, which as I’ve mentioned before is very much a work in progress. I’m not quite sure how much progress I’ve really made, to be honest.

At any rate, here is what the system has to say about this week’s FCS games (including four of the games listed above; I don’t run numbers for FCS contests against teams from outside the subdivision).

 

Road team Home team Road tm score Home tm score
Nicholls State SE Louisiana 29.9 36.6
Butler Marist 16.8 34.8
Dartmouth Brown 41.2 19.6
Harvard Yale 24.7 20.6
Lafayette Lehigh 20.7 17.7
Georgetown Morgan State 24.6 22.5
Campbell Robert Morris 29.9 24.8
Duquesne Wagner 34.6 15.5
St. Francis PA Central Conn. State 24.9 21.0
Western Carolina VMI 30.6 41.6
Sacred Heart Long Island 29 13.1
Fordham Colgate 32.9 23.9
San Diego Stetson 35.3 22.1
Columbia Cornell 26.1 22.4
Bryant Merrimack 27.1 23.9
Murray State Eastern Illinois 27.5 19.7
Holy Cross Bucknell 39.9 8.9
Indiana State Illinois State 17.7 26.4
Princeton Penn 27.7 16.7
Youngstown State Southern Illinois 22.7 40.8
Maine New Hampshire 27.0 21.6
Villanova Delaware 30.6 14.2
Albany Stony Brook 19.6 23.5
Furman Samford 34.2 36.0
Northwestern State McNeese State 15.9 35.2
Gardner-Webb North Carolina A&T 22.2 30.6
Monmouth Kennesaw State 25.3 26.2
North Alabama Hampton 30.2 29.1
Drake Davidson 17.0 30.3
Mercer ETSU 23.0 27.7
The Citadel Chattanooga 13.8 36.1
UT Martin SE Missouri State 32.3 23.1
Sam Houston State Abilene Christian 40.5 17.3
Presbyterian St. Thomas 27.3 46.8
Morehead State Valparaiso 27.6 30.9
South Carolina State Norfolk State 28.1 27.6
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Alabama A&M 27.0 40.0
Montana State Montana 21.0 22.5
Jacksonville State Eastern Kentucky 23.3 26.7
Rhode Island Elon 23.6 25.4
Alcorn State Jackson State 17.3 28.9
Delaware State NC Central 22.0 24.4
Western Illinois Northern Iowa 18.6 35.8
Towson James Madison 13.2 37
Texas Southern Alabama State 29.3 33.3
Tennessee Tech Austin Peay 15.9 36.5
Incarnate Word Houston Baptist 46.7 20.2
Northern Colorado Weber State 10.4 33.8
Idaho Idaho State 29.7 25.9
North Dakota South Dakota State 18.9 29.8
South Dakota North Dakota State 17.4 27.3
Florida A&M Bethune-Cookman 32.2 18.7
Richmond William and Mary 22.3 21.5
Eastern Washington Portland State 41.8 26.9
Stephen F. Austin Lamar 36.3 13.2
Central Arkansas Tarleton State 34.6 25.8
Northern Arizona Cal Poly 32.0 24.3
Sacramento State UC Davis 26.0 24.8
Missouri State Dixie State 41.5 16.7

Note: the game between Florida A&M and Bethune-Cookman is actually a neutral-site contest taking place in Orlando.

In terms of posts, this will probably be it from me for a couple of weeks or so. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.

College Football, Week 8: Tuesday notes and observations

Brent Thompson’s Monday press conference

Starting around the 17:00 mark of Brent Thompson’s Monday presser, there is an interesting question-and-answer discussion of recruiting, focusing on the impact the “free COVID year” has had. Over about five minutes, Thompson goes over a lot of the aspects involved, and not just from The Citadel’s perspective.

According to Thompson, his staff has offered about 80% fewer players this year than in a typical year. Considering that, as the coach notes, The Citadel is a “high school recruiting program”, it looks like this will be another very difficult year for prep prospects.

Time to talk about future non-conference schedules…

In a normal year, The Citadel has three non-conference games. One is always a “money” game against FBS opposition. At least one of the other matchups must be played at Johnson Hagood Stadium, because otherwise there would only be four home contests in a season.

During the 2024 season, FCS teams have the option to play 12 regular-season games because of the way the calendar falls, and The Citadel will indeed fulfill that quota. How, you ask? We’ll get there in a moment.

First, the 2022 campaign. The Bulldogs will open the season in Buies Creek, North Carolina, playing at Campbell on September 3.

The next non-conference tilt is also in the state of North Carolina, in Boone against Appalachian State. That matchup was originally supposed to take place on September 24, but was moved forward one week, to October 1. That change was apparently requested by App, and as a result The Citadel’s payout was for the game was increased, from $325,000 to $350,000.

The final out-of-league game of the 2022 season will be a home game for the Bulldogs, and it will be very late in the year – November 12, to be exact. The Citadel’s opponent will be Virginia University of Lynchburg (VUL), which is not a D2 school or even in the NAIA. Rather, VUL is a member of the National Christian College Athletic Association (NCCAA).

VUL, an HBCU with about 500 undergraduate students, has five FCS schools on its schedule this season. It has played three of them so far. Combined score of those three games: 154-27. The winless Dragons have also played Mars Hill and Erskine, among others.

I am honestly not sure of the last time The Citadel played a program that was not in the NCAA or the NAIA. It is possible that it hasn’t happened since before World War II.

The fact the game is on November 12 is also odd. I can only assume The Citadel had difficulty finding a home opponent to fill out its slate. VUL will receive $40,000 to make the trip to Charleston.

In 2023, The Citadel will again play only five home games. The FBS opponent that season will be Georgia Southern, and it will be the season opener (September 2). The payout for that contest is $320,000.

The following week (September 9), Campbell will play the Bulldogs in Johnson Hagood Stadium, completing a two-game agreement.

Two weeks later, on September 23, The Citadel will travel to Orangeburg to play another set of Bulldogs – South Carolina State. That will be the first of a two-game series between the two schools; the return matchup will be held in Charleston in 2024.

As mentioned earlier, 2024 is a 12-game regular season. The home game against South Carolina State will be on September 7. The following week, on September 14, The Citadel will host North Greenville. The Crusaders will receive $40,000 for their appearance (matching the VUL payout, so that appears to be the going rate for such games).

The other two non-conference contests will be road games for The Citadel. The first is the season opener, on August 31, at Charleston Southern. I am on record as saying that scheduling this contest is a serious mistake that does not reflect well on The Citadel’s department of athletics. This is the first of a two-game agreement (more on that later).

On November 23, The Citadel will play at Clemson, completing a contract that included the 2020 matchup between the two schools. The payout for the contest is $475,000, plus an additional consideration – besides the standard 300 complimentary tickets, the military college has the option to request an additional 2,000 tickets for sale.

The Citadel has only one scheduled non-conference game so far for the 2025 season. That is a matchup with Mississippi, now scheduled for September 6. The payout is $500,000.

In 2026, the return matchup for the two-game contract with Charleston Southern will take place in Charleston on September 19.

That contest was originally supposed to be played on September 5, but CSU apparently asked for the game to be moved (presumably to pick up an FBS opponent). Charleston Southern agreed to pay The Citadel $20,000 to change the game date. The contract addendum making the adjustment was completed on May 5 of this year.

Less than three weeks later, The Citadel signed an agreement to play at Charlotte on September 5, for a payout of $305,000; The Citadel will also receive 600 tickets for sale.

I’ll post my normal stats breakdown either later today or perhaps on Wednesday…

College Football Week 7, 2021: Thursday notes and observations

Tuesday notes and observations (including a statistical overload, featuring The Citadel and Furman but with some comments on FCS in general)

The Citadel’s game notes

Furman’s game notes

SoCon weekly release

The Brent Thompson Show

Furman Football, Monday episode

Paladins’ Shiflett:  a quarterback playing wide receiver (and well)

Guide to gameday in and around Paladin Stadium (don’t bring any turkey calls)

Broadcast information

The Citadel at Furman, to be played at Paladin Stadium in Greenville, SC, with kickoff at 6:00 pm ET on October 16, 2021.

The game will be streamed on ESPN+. Mark Childress will handle play-by-play, while Cole Neely supplies the analysis. The game will also be available on ESPN College Extra.

The contest can be heard on radio via The Citadel Sports Network. WQNT-1450 AM [audio link], originating in Charleston, will be the flagship station. Other stations carrying the game include WQXL in Columbia (100.7 FM/1470 AM) and WDXY in Sumter (105.9 FM/1240 AM).

Luke Mauro (the “Voice of the Bulldogs”) calls the action alongside analyst Lee Glaze.

“Live Stats” for the game

The kickoff time for this game is 6:00 pm ET (or maybe 6:05 pm ET, as it is listed in a couple of places), which struck more than a few people as odd. I don’t think it will have any bearing on the outcome of the contest, but I’m also not sure why Furman decided on a late afternoon/early evening start time. In terms of the calendar, this is the latest home night game in program history.

The reasoning behind waiting for darkness certainly isn’t about tradition. In fact, this is the first time The Citadel and Furman will have played a night game at Paladin Stadium since it opened in 1981. I do not know if the two schools ever played an evening contest at Furman’s previous home field, Sirrine Stadium, either (to be honest, I’m not sure what the lights situation was there).

This is also Furman’s first home night game since the Paladins played Chattanooga in 2016. That matchup was a “blackout” game for the Paladins, as the team wore black jerseys and the home partisans were encouraged to sport black as well. The Mocs won that evening, 21-14.

I have to say that I don’t recall too many successful “blackout” contests, regardless of school. I distinctly remember South Carolina playing a much-hyped “blackout” game in Columbia against Florida in 2001. The Gators dominated the Gamecocks, 54-17. Via the Associated Press:

Rex Grossman and his teammates were more amused than overwhelmed when much of the record 84,900 at Williams-Brice Stadium turned out in black.

“It was fun,” Grossman said. “It was like they weren’t even there. They were blacked out. Then we drove them out, they left.”

Even Florida Coach Steve Spurrier chuckled at the sight. “One of our receivers said, ‘Coach, it was nice of them to wear all black so we can pick the ball out of the sky,”’ he said.

I believe Furman will wear its traditional purple jerseys on Saturday night. Just as well, I suppose.

On Monday, Furman radio voice Dan Scott asked Clay Hendrix: “Are the players excited about playing a night game here?”

Hendrix: “I have no idea. You’ll have to ask them, we haven’t talked about it.”

Roster review:

– Of the 112 players on The Citadel’s online roster, 61 are from South Carolina. Other states represented: Georgia (18 players), Florida (11), North Carolina (9), Virginia (4), Alabama (2), Texas (2), and one each from New York, Oklahoma, Ohio, and Tennessee.

Tight end Hayden Williamson played his high school football in Okinawa, Japan.

– Of the 110 players on Furman’s online roster, 11 are from South Carolina. More Paladins are from Georgia (26) than any other state. Other states represented: Florida (17 players), Tennessee (17 players), North Carolina (10), Texas (8), Alabama (3), Kentucky (3), Ohio (3), Illinois (2), Pennsylvania (2), and one each from Delaware, Idaho, Indiana, Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, and Virginia.

It is not surprising that only 10% of Furman’s roster hails from the Palmetto State, as that is an inevitable result of recent recruiting by the Paladins. In the last two years, the program has largely eschewed South Carolina in favor of bringing in talent from other states, including a notable dip into the Texas high school ranks.

It should be said that Furman has traditionally recruited Georgia (and to a lesser extent Tennessee) for players as much, if not more, than South Carolina, so this isn’t necessarily a new development. However, the absence of S.C. signees in FU’s last two recruiting classes has understandably received some negative feedback from the local high school community. Wofford also drew the ire of that group for only signing one player from South Carolina.

Hard feelings could be attributed in part to this specific recruiting cycle’s mountain of COVID-19 issues. Some of the locals were particularly upset that in a very difficult year for high school players, Furman’s and Wofford’s classes were almost exclusively from out of state.

I don’t really have a strong opinion on this topic. I will say that Furman and Wofford are private schools, and have no responsibility to recruit players from South Carolina. It can be a tough look at times, to be sure. It might also be an issue for things like attendance (although that is probably debatable).

Instinctively, it seems to me that Furman and Wofford are better off as football programs when they regularly bring in at least a few S.C. players each year. After all, while the Paladins only have 11 players from South Carolina, 8 of them are on the current two-deep.

I suspect that Furman (and probably Wofford) will sign several Palmetto State products in the coming year.

One thing that sometimes gets lost in the discussion, though, is the fact that Furman’s student body is mostly from out of state. Getting hard numbers can be tricky, but one source states that only 27.7% of FU’s undergraduates are from South Carolina. The nature of the institution as a whole (and how it has changed over the years) is surely a factor in the Paladins’ recruiting outlook.

Brief lines/odds discussion:

Furman is an 11½-point favorite over The Citadel; the over/under is 50½.

Other SoCon lines: Mercer is a 12½-point favorite over VMI (over/under of 63½); Samford is a 6-point favorite at Wofford (over/under of 72½); and East Tennessee State is a 2½-point favorite at Chattanooga (over/under of 51).

None of those spreads surprised me except for VMI-Mercer. The Bears should be favored, but 12½ is a lot of points against a team that won the league last season and just beat Chattanooga.

A few lines from the FCS world that I thought were a little strange (for recreational purposes only, as I live in South Carolina where gambling is still illegal):

  • Colgate-Cornell: this is a pick’em, but Cornell should be favored at home, perhaps by as much as a touchdown; the over/under is only 34½ (?!)
  • Princeton-Brown: the Tigers are a 16½-point road favorite; the spread probably should be higher
  • Bucknell-Fordham: to be fair, Christy Mathewson’s alma mater is not good, but the Rams as 24½-point favorites might be a bit much
  • Monmouth-Campbell: I know it is a long road trip for Monmouth, but I think the wrong team (Campbell, by 4½ points) is favored
  • Robert Morris-North Alabama: another long road journey, another game in which it is possible the wrong team (UNA) is favored — this time by 10½ points
  • Tarleton State-Dixie State: repeating myself, but Tarleton State should be a slight favorite, not the homestanding Trailblazers (by 2½ points)

Feel free to silently cackle when my guesses inevitably go 0-6.

The weekend is almost here, for which we are all grateful…

College Football Week 6, 2021: Thursday notes and observations

Tuesday notes and observations

Game notes from The Citadel

ETSU’s digital gameday program

SoCon weekly release

ETSU’s Folks makes history with eighth season of college football

Jaylan Adams returns to Johnson City

The Brent Thompson Show (in podcast format)

Broadcast information

The Citadel at East Tennessee State, to be played at William B. Greene, Jr. Stadium in Johnson City, Tennessee, with kickoff at 4:35 pm ET on October 9, 2021.

The game will be streamed on ESPN+ and televised on the following TV stations:

  • ECBD (Charleston, SC)
  • WBTW (Myrtle Beach, SC)
  • WMUB (Macon, GA)
  • WMYT (Charlotte, NC)
  • WWCW (Lynchburg/Roanoke, VA)
  • WYCW (Greenville, SC/Spartanburg, SC/Asheville, NC).

Pete Yanity will handle play-by-play, while Todd Agne supplies the analysis. 

The contest can be heard on radio via The Citadel Sports Network. WQNT-1450 AM [audio link], originating in Charleston, will be the flagship station. Other stations carrying the game include WQXL in Columbia (100.7 FM/1470 AM) and WDXY in Sumter (105.9 FM/1240 AM).

Luke Mauro (the “Voice of the Bulldogs”) calls the action alongside analyst Lee Glaze.

– From an article in the Richmond Times-Dispatch:

[VMI head football coach Scott Wachenheim] has interest in moving VMI-The Citadel to the end of the season every year.

“I’d even do it at a neutral site, but I do like doing it home-and-home because of the fanfare,” he said. “The whole experience at their place and our place is pretty cool, especially when our corps goes down there and their corps comes up here.”

The Citadel-VMI has occasionally been played at a neutral site. I think home-and-home is definitely the way to go, however.

I would be okay with the game being played in November every year. As a practical matter, the Bulldogs can’t host on the final Saturday of the regular season because of the timing for the fall furlough, but there is no reason the two teams can’t face each other on the second Saturday of the month (or the third Saturday in November when the matchup is in Virginia).

As for The Citadel’s other primary rival, Furman, that series is similar in that there has not been a “standard” time for playing the game. Some of the Paladins faithful have occasionally argued that it should be an end-of-year affair, but historically that contest has been played in October more than any other month.

I believe consistently playing it in midseason would be most appropriate. I know others might have differing opinions, but for me, The Citadel and Furman should always play in mid-October, in the third or fourth league game of the campaign.

Incidentally, 19 of the 29 previous gridiron meetings between The Citadel and ETSU have been in October. Five have been in November, four in September, and one in March.

Roster review:

– Of the 113 players on The Citadel’s online roster, 61 are from South Carolina. Other states represented: Georgia (18 players), Florida (11), North Carolina (9), Virginia (5), Alabama (2), Texas (2), and one each from New York, Oklahoma, Ohio, and Tennessee.

Tight end Hayden Williamson played his high school football in Okinawa, Japan.

– East Tennessee State also has 113 players on its online roster. Of those, 45 are from Tennessee. Other states with representatives on the Bucs’ squad: Georgia (31 players), North Carolina (8), Florida (7), Ohio (5), Virginia (5), Alabama (3), Pennsylvania (2), South Carolina (2), and one each from California Delaware, Kentucky, Minnesota, and West Virginia.

The two South Carolina natives on ETSU’s roster are fourth-year running back D.J. Twitty (who went to Chapman High School in Inman) and redshirt freshman defensive back Tylik Edwards (Rock Hill High School). 

College Football Week 6, 2021: Tuesday notes and observations

Brent Thompson 10/4 press conference (featuring Duggar Baucom)

ETSU head football coach Randy Sanders’ 10/4 press conference

East Tennessee State having fun while relishing role of favorite

Logan Billings returns, scores two touchdowns

The weather forecast for Saturday afternoon in Johnson City, per the National Weather Service: a 40% chance of showers, with a high of 76°.

William B. Greene Jr. Stadium opened in 2017. It has a listed capacity of 7,694, with the playing field an artificial turf surface. 

ETSU is actually averaging more fans per game (9,926) than the stadium’s listed capacity. The Buccaneers have played three home contests so far this season, against UVA Wise, Delaware State, and Wofford (with 10,153 fans in the stadium for the game versus the Terriers).

Fans of the Bulldogs planning on making the trip to Johnson City should know that ETSU head coach Randy Sanders highly recommends the stadium food, suggesting during his Monday presser that people should come to the game “just for the hot dogs. They’re amazing.” 

Sanders also mentioned that he believes Greene Stadium needs a “cigar section”. When a reporter pointed out that ETSU has a tobacco-free campus, Sanders wryly noted that the campus was also supposed to be alcohol-free, but “I see a lot of bottles [lying around] when I leave in the evening”.

ETSU’s press conference also featured starting quarterback Tyler Riddell and linebacker Jared Folks, an eighth-year (yes!) college football player. As I’ve mentioned before, Folks started his collegiate gridiron career at Temple in 2014, the same year in which insurance pitchman Patrick Mahomes debuted for Texas Tech.

The early lines are out. East Tennessee State is a 10½-point favorite; the over/under is 59½.

Other SoCon lines:

  • Chattanooga is a 10-point favorite at VMI (over/under of 51½)
  • Mercer is a 16½-point favorite at Western Carolina (over/under of 72½)
  • Furman-Wofford is a pick’em (with an over/under of just 37½)

Samford is off this week.

A few other FCS lines of interest:

  • Morehead State is a 3½-point favorite at Presbyterian; the over/under is 90½
  • Florida A&M is a 10-point favorite against South Carolina State; over/under of 54½
  • Charleston Southern is an 18-point favorite against Robert Morris; over/under of 48½
  • Campbell is a 9-point favorite at Gardner-Webb; over/under of 67½
  • James Madison is a 10½-point favorite over Villanova; over/under of 63
  • Kennesaw State is an 18-point favorite over Hampton; over/under of 66½
  • Elon is a 6-point favorite at Maine; over/under of 53½
  • Austin Peay is a 7½-point favorite over Southeast Missouri State; over/under of 68½

For anyone interested, here is my working spreadsheet for FCS games played through October 2:  Link

East Tennessee State, which is averaging 37.6 points per game (15th nationally), fares very well in most offensive categories.

Among all FCS teams, ETSU is 10th in both yards per play (6.72) and adjusted yards per rush (5.85). Senior running back Quay Holmes is second in rushing yards per game (123.4), trailing only a Harvard player who has played in two fewer contests.

The Buccaneers are 8th overall in adjusted yards per pass attempt (8.05) and11th in adjusted pass efficiency (9 TD passes, 3 interceptions), with a 62.3% completion percentage and a third down conversion rate of 49.3% (9th-best in the subdivision). ETSU quarterbacks have been sacked on less than 3% of all pass plays.

East Tennessee State is 36th in estimated points per Red Zone possession (5.35), and 8th in FCS in time of possession (34:10). 

ETSU runs the football on 60.7% of its plays from scrimmage.

Defensively, the Buccaneers are 30th nationally in yards allowed per play (4.89). They are 32nd in adjusted yards allowed per rush (4.24) and 22nd in adjusted yards allowed per pass attempt (5.30).

ETSU has allowed 7 TD passes, but has 5 interceptions. Opponents are completing 63.8% of their throws. The Buccaneers’ adjusted defensive pass efficiency rating ranks 38th in FCS.

East Tennessee State’s defense is allowing 18.4 points per contest (19th-best overall). It is 28th in estimated points allowed per Red Zone possession (4.50) and 48th in third down conversion rate against (35.7%). Against the Bucs’ D, opponents have run the football 38.2% of the time.

ETSU is tied for 25th in FCS in turnover margin per game (0.8). The Buccaneers have gained 9 turnovers (four fumble recoveries, five interceptions) while losing 5 (two fumbles, three picks).

East Tennessee State is called for a few more penalties than the typical FCS squad, drawing an average of 7 flags per contest (tied for 42nd-most in the country), for 59 yards per game (50th). The Buccaneers are 77th nationally in net punting (35.29).

The Citadel’s offense is averaging 28.8 points per game, 43rd overall. It is averaging 5.95 yards per play, which is 34th nationally.

The Bulldogs are 28th in adjusted yards per rush (5.31) and 2nd in adjusted yards per pass attempt (9.16, behind only South Dakota State). Their adjusted pass efficiency rating is 26th, with 2 TDs, 1 pick, and a completion rate of 53.8%. Bulldog QBs have been sacked on 11.3% of pass plays, obviously a stat that needs to improve.

The offense is converting third downs at a 44.2% clip (29th in FCS). The Citadel is 48th nationally in time of possession (31:21), which is lower than in past seasons. The Bulldogs are averaging an estimated 5.21 points per Red Zone possession, 41st in FCS.

The Citadel has run the football on 83.2% of its offensive plays from scrimmage, 3rd nationally (behind Davidson and Kennesaw State).

On defense, The Citadel is allowing 31.8 points per game. The Bulldogs give up on average 6.46 yards per play, which ranks 108th in FCS. That includes an adjusted yards allowed per rush of 5.36 (96th overall) and an adjusted yards allowed per pass attempt of 7.60 (105th). Bulldog opponents are completing 63.4% of their passes, with 8 TDs (against 4 interceptions). The Citadel’s adjusted defensive pass efficiency rating is 98th in the country.

The Bulldogs are allowing a third down conversion rate of 52.1% (123rd nationally). The defense is 39th in estimated points allowed per Red Zone possession (4.64).

Against The Citadel, opponents have an almost even pass/run ratio — 50.8% rush attempts, and 49.2% pass plays.

The Citadel is tied for 39th in FCS in turnover margin (0.5). The Bulldogs have gained five turnovers (1 fumble recovery, 4 interceptions) while losing three (two fumbles, one pick).

With an average of just 4.25 penalties, The Citadel ranks 14th nationally in fewest flags per contest. The Bulldogs rank 33rd in fewest penalty yardage per game (46.75), indicating that the squad needs to get better at avoiding major infractions. It could also indicate that the officials in last week’s game against VMI were a little too officious.

The Citadel is 16th overall in net punting (40.24). 

More to come later in the week…

College Football Week 5, 2021: Tuesday notes and observations

Brent Thompson’s Monday press conference (9/27)

The Citadel’s game notes for its matchup against VMI

VMI has been rewarded for its patience

– The weather forecast for Saturday afternoon in Charleston, per the National Weather Service: sunny, with a high of 81°.

– The early lines are out. The Citadel is favored over VMI by 1½ points; the over/under is 65½.

I have no idea why the Bulldogs are favored in this game. My own numbers, which are admittedly experimental in nature and not to be trusted, suggest that VMI should be favored by around 9 points. 

When the coveted Silver Shako is at stake, however, anything can happen. 

– Other SoCon lines:

  • Chattanooga is favored over Western Carolina by 21½ points (over/under of 57½)
  • East Tennessee State is favored over Wofford by 14½ points (over/under of 49½)
  • Mercer is favored over Samford by 7½ points (over/under of 68½)

Furman is off this week.

– Also of note from a local or semi-local perspective: South Carolina State is favored by 7½ points over Bethune-Cookman; Kennesaw State is a 2½-point favorite over Jacksonville State; Davidson is favored by 10 points at Stetson; North Carolina A&T is favored by 19½ points over Robert Morris; Richmond is a 12½-point favorite over Elon; and Campbell is a 3-point favorite at North Alabama.

Presbyterian and Charleston Southern are both idle this weekend.

Above, I mentioned my experimental power ratings for FCS teams. This is just a tryout and probably won’t come to anything, but I decided to compare my numbers to the spreads for all FCS vs. FCS contests and see how many outliers there were.

I basically came up with seven games (not including VMI-The Citadel) in which my ratings differed from the opening line by more than a touchdown. Here they are, with my system’s pick against the spread in bold:

  • Sacred Heart-Howard: the Pioneers are 4-point favorites at HU
  • Duquesne-Merrimack: the homestanding Warriors are favored by 3 points
  • Dayton-Morehead State: the Flyers are 2½-point road favorites
  • Brown-Bryant: the Bears are 1½-point road favorites
  • Delaware State-Wagner: the Seahawks are a 1½-point favorite at home
  • Dixie State-South Dakota State: the mighty Jackrabbits are 45-point favorites
  • Central Arkansas-Abilene Christian: ACU is a 1-point favorite at home

Yes, six of the picks are road teams. Feel free to giggle when all of the home teams cover this weekend.

Some FCS conference realignment news: Texas A&M-Commerce, which won the D2 football national title in 2017, announced today it is moving up to FCS and will be a member of the Southland Conference. For you old-timers, this is the school that until 1996 was called East Texas State. Its most notable football alums: Dwight White, Harvey Martin, and Wade Wilson.

Of course, conference realignment rumors (and actual moves) are all the rage right now, both at the FBS and FCS level.

Austin Peay is leaving the OVC for the A-Sun. An OVC school that does not play football, Belmont, is headed to the MVC — and yet another OVC member, Murray State, is widely rumored to be moving as well.

Texas A&M-Commerce probably won’t be the only Division II school to move up, either. There are a host of D2 programs all over the nation reportedly interested in the verdant pastures of Division I. In the southeastern part of the country, keep an eye on (among others) Valdosta State, West Georgia, West Florida, and Queens University of Charlotte.

West Florida, Valdosta State, and Texas A&M-Commerce are the last three national champions in football at the Division II level.

Queens is a small private school (less than 2,000 undergraduates) that does not sponsor football. It does have a dominant swimming program (both men’s and women’s), and its men’s hoops squad beat Howard last season and only lost to George Mason by one point.

Per Wikipedia, the Queens Sports Complex includes a statue of Rex (the school’s mascot), which is “the largest standing lion sculpture in the world.” That sounds D1 to me…

Also, while I haven’t heard anything yet about Anderson University moving up to D1, it did hire Bobby Lamb to start its football program — and has more students than Queens (which, like Anderson, is in the South Atlantic Conference). Anderson’s enrollment has more than doubled over the last 15 years.

Just something to think about.

College Football Week 3, 2021: Thursday notes and observations

North Greenville’s head coach is a graduate of The Citadel, and his team can beat The Citadel

Brent Thompson’s 9/13 press conference

The Brent Thompson Show (9/15)

The Citadel’s game notes

Broadcast information

North Greenville at The Citadel, to be played on Sansom Field at historic Johnson Hagood Stadium in Charleston, South Carolina, with kickoff at 6:00 pm ET on September 18, 2021.

The game will be streamed on ESPN+. Play-by-play will be handled by Kevin Fitzgerald, while Jason Kempf supplies the analysis. Anna Witte will be the sideline reporter.

The contest can be heard on radio via The Citadel Sports Network. WQNT-1450 AM [audio link], originating in Charleston, will be the flagship station. Other stations carrying the game include WQXL in Columbia (100.7 FM/1470 AM) and WDXY in Sumter (105.9 FM/1240 AM).

Luke Mauro (the “Voice of the Bulldogs”) calls the action alongside analyst Lee Glaze.

Well, this is going to be short and sweet. I didn’t have a lot of time this week to put together a lot of notes and information, and perhaps it was just as well.

On the bright side, the reunion classes did a great job of raising money for The Citadel. Major props to everyone involved.

Unfortunately, that was the only highlight from Saturday. Nothing went right on the field (and even off the field, the new scoreboard had issues that need to be addressed).

It was an abysmal performance by the Bulldogs. There was no excuse for the team to be so flat, particularly given the circumstances. If the squad plays like that for the rest of the season, the outlook is very bleak indeed.

The defense has not been able to get off the field in two games (66.7% 3rd-down conversion allowed rate), and has yet to force a turnover. Opponents are completing 80% of their pass attempts, as the Bulldogs have only defensed two out of 50 throws. Yards per play allowed: 8.6.

Offensively, things haven’t been great either. The Citadel is averaging only 4.6 yards per play, has struggled to put together drives (33.3% 3rd-down conversion rate), and has averaged 4.9 yards per pass attempt (adjusted for sacks).

In the two games, The Citadel has had five plays from scrimmage that resulted in gains of 20 yards or more. Opponents have had 18.

This week, North Greenville comes to town, and the Crusaders probably think they have a very good chance of beating the Bulldogs. NGU is an excellent D2 team, with several impact players who began their collegiate careers at D1 schools (read Jeff Hartsell’s article, linked above, for details). North Greenville’s starting quarterback can already lay claim to a victory over The Citadel at Johnson Hagood Stadium, from the 2017 season when he started for Mercer.

NGU played quite respectably against The Citadel back in 2016, a year in which the Bulldogs won the SoCon title. If anything, the early season results suggest that the Crusaders are more talented now than they were then — perhaps considerably so. 

North Greenville’s offense is balanced (69 pass plays, 63 rush attempts through two games). Slightly over 60% of its yardage comes via the air.

Defensively, NGU has 13½ tackles for loss (including 3½ sacks) and has forced four turnovers (three interceptions). Opponents are averaging 4.29 sack-adjusted yards per rush.

“We’ve got our work cut out for us this week,” said Brent Thompson at his Monday presser. Yes, the Bulldogs certainly do.

There is no line on The Citadel’s game against North Greenville this week, not too surprising given that NGU is a D2 squad. However, one book does have moneylines for the contest: +290 (North Greenville) and -410 (The Citadel). I’m not an expert on this by any means, but I believe that would indicate a likely spread of 8 to 8½ points, if one existed.

Other SoCon lines this week:

  • Kentucky is a 30½-point favorite over Chattanooga (over/under of 42½)
  • Cornell is a 1½-point favorite over VMI (over/under of 53)
  • Samford is a 13-point favorite at Western Carolina (over/under of 71½)
  • Wofford is a 6-point favorite over Kennesaw State (over/under of 54½)
  • North Carolina State is a 29½-point favorite over Furman (over/under of 42½)
  • East Tennessee State is a 27½-point favorite over Delaware State (over/under of 41½)

Mercer is off this week.

I don’t have any opinion on the FBS vs. FCS games; those spreads look about right to me.

I like VMI’s chances at Cornell, as the Keydets arguably should be favored. My numbers would support Samford covering against Western Carolina (but with the Catamounts being competitive). 

No offense to the Terriers, but I am surprised Kennesaw State is the underdog in that matchup. The spread in Delaware State-ETSU is exactly where it should be “on paper”, but in reality I like the Buccaneers a bit more than that.

As for totals, I would take the over in Samford-WCU and Delaware State-ETSU, and the under in Kennesaw State-Wofford.

This is all just for “recreational purposes”, of course, as I live in a state where gambling on such events is illegal. Also, I wouldn’t be shocked if I went 0-fer on all my picks…

A brief coda: The Citadel had a tough week last week, but it wasn’t even in the running for toughest week for a triple-option program.

Georgia Southern got absolutely smoked by FAU (38-6), but that wasn’t the “winner”, either.

Nothing tops Navy’s 23-3 loss to Air Force, which led to the following sequence of events:

  • Navy offensive coordinator Ivin Jasper was fired after the game, but not by head coach Ken Niumatalolo — no, he was fired by AD Chet Gladchuk
  • Niumatalolo asked Gladchuk to reconsider, and Jasper was subsequently reinstated to the staff as QBs coach
  • Another offensive assistant, Billy Ray Stutzmann, was dismissed for refusing to get the COVID-19 vaccine (which is required for all Naval Academy personnel)

Jasper has been at Navy for 22 years (two separate stints), including 14 seasons as the OC (all under Niumatalolo, who has been at Navy himself for 24 years, including the last 20 seasons).

Gladchuk has been the AD at Annapolis for 20 years, so these are all people who have worked together for a long time. The whole situation is bizarre.

Okay, Bulldogs. It is time to win. Style points are not important, just the final score.

College Football Week 2, 2021: Thursday notes and observations

Wednesday’s notes and observations

Links of interest for Thursday:

The Brent Thompson Show (recorded September 8, 2021)

The Citadel is “back open for business” at Johnson Hagood Stadium

The Citadel’s game notes (in case you missed the release earlier this week)

Weekly release from the SoCon

Charleston Southern’s game notes

Weekly release from the Big South

Broadcast information

Charleston Southern at The Citadel, to be played on Sansom Field at historic Johnson Hagood Stadium in Charleston, South Carolina, with kickoff at 2:00 pm ET on September 11, 2021.

The game will be streamed on ESPN+ and televised on four TV stations — ECBD in Charleston, WMYT in Charlotte, WWCW in Lynchburg/Roanoke, and WYCW in Greenville/Spartanburg/Asheville.

Pete Yanity will handle play-by-play, while Jared Singleton supplies the analysis.

The contest can be heard on radio via The Citadel Sports Network. WQNT-1450 AM [audio link], originating in Charleston, will be the flagship station. Other stations carrying the game include WQXL in Columbia (100.7 FM/1470 AM) and WDXY in Sumter (105.9 FM/1240 AM).

Luke Mauro (the “Voice of the Bulldogs”) calls the action alongside analyst Lee Glaze.

This was reported last week, but I wanted to mention here that The Citadel has added another FBS opponent to a future schedule. The Bulldogs will play at Charlotte on September 5, 2026. 

The Citadel will receive $305,000 for the game, along with 400 complimentary tickets. In addition, the 49ers will provide 600 tickets for The Citadel to sell.

Other future FBS opponents for the Bulldogs include Appalachian State (in the 2022 season), Georgia Southern (2023), Clemson (2024), and Mississippi (2025).

The current administration has established a preference for playing close-to-home FBS opponents, and has been more focused on G5 schools. I understand the reasoning, and sometimes there isn’t much of a difference in the guarantees, but I believe playing P5 teams is generally a better idea, particularly in terms of publicity and cachet. The exception to this would be a matchup against a service academy.

Of the 117 players on The Citadel’s online roster, 66 are from South Carolina. Other states represented: Georgia (17 players), Florida (11), North Carolina (9), Virginia (5), Alabama (2), Texas (2), and one each from New York, Oklahoma, Ohio, and Tennessee.

Tight end Hayden Williamson played his high school football in Okinawa, Japan.

Charleston Southern has 116 players on its online roster. There are 34 natives of South Carolina on the squad. Other states represented include Georgia (30 players), Florida (25), North Carolina (17), Kentucky (3), Texas (2), and one each from Massachusetts, New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia.

Defensive lineman Devonte Turner played high school football in Florida, but is originally from Windsor, Ontario.

Actually, there are 117 players listed on Charleston Southern’s roster. Lorvens Florestal, a freshman from Delray Beach, Florida, was tragically killed two weeks ago in an off-campus shooting. He was an innocent bystander — simply in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Lorvens Florestal was 19 years old.

Most of CSU’s players were recruited to North Charleston out of high school. There are 12 players on the Buccaneers’ roster who began playing collegiately at another four-year institution or a junior college. 

Charleston Southern did not play in the fall of 2020, but did compete in four spring games. The Bucs were 2-2, losing road games to Kennesaw State and Monmouth, but winning at home versus Robert Morris and Gardner-Webb.

Spring stats of note for CSU, offense:

  • Points per game: 20.75
  • Yards per play: 4.88 
  • Run/pass ratio: 44.9% rush attempts, 55.1% pass plays
  • Adjusted yards per rush: 3.83
  • Adjusted yards per pass attempt: 5.73
  • Pass completion percentage: 62.7%
  • Sack percentage per pass play: 9.55% (142 attempts, 15 sacks allowed)
  • 3rd down conversion rate: 43.8% (28 for 64)
  • 4th down conversion rate: 33.3% (2 for 6)
  • Estimated points per red zone possession: 4.93

Spring stats of note for CSU: defense:

  • Points allowed per game: 20.00
  • Yards per play allowed: 5.05
  • Run/pass ratio for opponents: 61.2% rush attempts, 38.7% pass plays
  • Adjusted yards per rush allowed: 3.43
  • Adjusted yards per pass attempt allowed: 7.60
  • Pass completion percentage allowed: 55.7%
  • Sack percentage per pass play: 5.83% (97 attempts against, 6 sacks)
  • 3rd down conversion rate against: 37.1% (23 for 62)
  • 4th down conversion rate against: 50.0% (8 of 16)
  • Estimated points per red zone possession allowed: 3.75

Other spring stats of note for CSU:

  • Average time of possession per contest: 27 minutes, 37 seconds
  • Net punting: 37.48 yards
  • Penalties per game: 6.0
  • Penalty yardage per contest: 55.25
  • Turnover margin per game: -0.25 (4 gained, 5 lost in 4 games)

It is difficult to come to any sweeping statistical conclusions about Charleston Southern’s football team, given the small four-game sample size. CSU’s offense had success through the air, though the Buccaneers did allow more than their fair share of sacks. The offensive third down conversion rate was good.

When Charleston Southern had a big play on offense, it almost always came via the pass. In the four games, CSU only had one run of more than 20+ yards.

However, fans of the Bulldogs might remember current CSU starting quarterback Jack Chambers rushing for 33 and 38 yards on consecutive plays during the Buccaneers’ game versus The Citadel in 2019. Chambers entered that contest late in the third quarter and had an immediate impact.

Defensively, Charleston Southern’s spring campaign featured outstanding play in the red zone. Opponents scored only seven times in twelve trips inside the 20-yard line (six TDs and a field goal). CSU got burned by long pass plays a few times (including a 51-yard touchdown toss by Kennesaw State and a 70-yard TD by Monmouth), but was good against the run; in three of the four games, Charleston Southern did not allow a run of 20+ yards. 

Against Kennesaw State, which runs the triple option, CSU did not give up a run of longer than 10 yards, with an adjusted yards per rush allowed of only 3.38.

KSU won that game 24-19; two of the Owls’ scores came on pass plays (Kennesaw was 4 for 5 throwing the ball, with one sack). Also of possible interest: KSU quarterback Jonathan Murphy accounted for half of the Owls’ rushing yardage (and almost 40% of the carries).

The Citadel has an all-time record of 1-5 on September 11. The lone victory came against Presbyterian in 1982. As described in this week’s game notes:

…Randy Gold’s 42-yard interception return in the third quarter proved to be the difference as
The Citadel opened the season with a 21-16 victory over Presbyterian. The victory was the 14th-straight
victory inside Johnson Hagood Stadium. Quarterback Gerald Toney scored on runs of 43 yards and 10
yards in the first quarter, and linebacker Keith McCauley paced the defense with 11 tackles, two forced
fumbles and a blocked punt.

On a rainy night in Charleston, the two teams combined for nine turnovers and the above-mentioned blocked punt. During one drive, PC was stopped on downs inside the Bulldogs’ 1-yard line. The Citadel only had 237 yards of total offense — not much, but just enough.

Getting closer to the long-awaited home opener…