McAlister Musings: 2017-18 SoCon play begins for the Bulldogs

Posted on December 29, 2017 by Sandlapper Spike

Link of interest:

– The Citadel plunges into “scary” SoCon play

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The Citadel is 5-7 so far this season, though only two of the Bulldogs’ victories have come against D-1 opposition. The big news in the early part of the schedule was negative, as 2017 SoCon Freshman of the Year Preston Parks was dismissed from the team and will transfer.

This post will cover the first three games of the SoCon campaign — December 30 versus Western Carolina, January 4 at Furman, and January 6 at Wofford.

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First, some statistics. I decided to look at the numbers from the six games The Citadel played against “similar” opposition — in other words, none of the games played against non-D1 teams, and none of the contests against power-conference schools.

The games I selected:

The Citadel’s stats in those six contests (I’ve included national averages in some categories for comparison):

Poss Pts %2pt %3pt %FT 2M 2Att 2FG% 3M 3Att 3FG% eFG%
N.C. A&T 89 73 60.3% 20.5% 19.2% 22 46 47.8% 5 33 15.2% 37.3%
HPU 77 79 43.0% 38.0% 19.0% 17 39 43.6% 10 25 40.0% 50.0%
Marist 90 91 37.4% 49.5% 13.2% 17 37 45.9% 15 42 35.7% 50.0%
UMBC 78 72 50.0% 25.0% 25.0% 18 40 45.0% 6 29 20.7% 39.1%
JMU 80 84 52.4% 39.3% 8.3% 22 35 62.9% 11 24 45.8% 65.3%
Campbell 74 77 57.1% 27.3% 15.6% 22 48 45.8% 7 26 26.9% 43.9%
Avg 81.33 79.3 49.6% 34.0% 16.4% 19.7 40.8 48.2% 9.0 29.8 30.2% 41.2%
Natl. Avg. 69.9 49.5% 31.4% 19.1% 49.9% 35.0% 50.9%

 

FT FTatt FTA/FGA FT% OR DR TR OR% A A/FGM
N.C. A&T 14 21 26.6% 66.7% 17 25 42 40.5% 8 29.6%
HPU 15 23 35.9% 65.2% 15 21 36 41.7% 13 48.1%
Marist 12 17 21.5% 70.6% 10 25 35 28.6% 18 56.3%
UMBC 18 29 42.0% 62.1% 15 23 38 39.5% 15 62.5%
JMU 7 11 18.6% 63.6% 3 27 30 10.0% 18 54.5%
Campbell 12 16 21.6% 75.0% 12 24 36 33.3% 12 41.4%
Avg 13.0 19.5 27.6% 66.7% 12.0 24.2 36.2 33.2% 14.0 48.8%
Natl. Avg. 33.9% 70.7% 29.2% 53.0%

TO TO% A/TO Blk Blk% Stl Stl% PF
N.C. A&T 18 20.2% 0.44 1 2.2% 9 10.1% 20
HPU 17 22.1% 0.76 5 12.8% 11 14.3% 14
Marist 12 13.3% 1.5 1 2.7% 9 10.0% 19
UMBC 10 12.8% 1.5 1 2.5% 9 11.5% 18
JMU 18 22.5% 1 4 11.4% 12 15.0% 20
Campbell 6 8.1% 2 3 6.3% 6 8.1% 19
Avg 13.5 16.6% 1.04 2.5 6.1% 9.3 11.5% 18.3
Natl Avg. 19.2% 9.4% 10.8%

 

The Citadel’s opponents’ statistics in those six games:

Poss Pts %2pt %3pt %FT 2M 2Att 2FG% 3M 3Att 3FG% eFG%
N.C. A&T 89 92 65.2% 22.8% 12.0% 30 43 69.8% 7 22 31.8% 62.3%
HPU 77 77 64.9% 19.5% 15.6% 25 53 47.2% 5 12 41.7% 50.0%
Marist 90 100 34.0% 54.0% 12.0% 17 23 73.9% 18 40 45.0% 69.8%
UMBC 78 98 40.8% 49.0% 10.2% 20 34 58.8% 16 42 38.1% 57.9%
JMU 80 82 48.8% 29.3% 22.0% 20 43 46.5% 8 25 32.0% 47.1%
Campbell 74 87 57.5% 27.6% 14.9% 25 48 52.1% 8 21 38.1% 53.6%
Avg 81.33 89.3 51.1% 34.7% 14.2% 22.8 40.7 56.1% 10.3 27 38.3% 49.8%
Natl. Avg. 69.9 49.5% 31.4% 19.1% 35.0% 50.9%

 

FT Ftatt FTA/FGA FT% OR DR TR OR% A A/FGM
N.C. A&T 11 15 23.1% 73.3% 6 41 47 12.8% 25 67.6%
HPU 12 12 18.5% 100.0% 14 27 41 34.1% 15 50.0%
Marist 12 17 27.0% 70.6% 6 37 43 14.0% 24 68.6%
UMBC 10 16 21.1% 62.5% 21 36 57 36.8% 24 66.7%
JMU 18 22 32.4% 81.8% 15 27 42 35.7% 18 64.3%
Campbell 13 20 29.0% 65.0% 16 35 51 31.4% 20 60.6%
Avg 12.7 17 25.1% 74.5% 13 33.8 46.8 27.8% 21 63.3%
Natl. Avg. 33.9% 70.7% 29.2% 53.0%

 

TO TO% A/TO Blk Blk% Stl Stl% PF
N.C. A&T 22 24.7% 1.14 3 7.0% 8 9.0% 18
HPU 20 26.0% 0.75 10 18.9% 12 15.6% 22
Marist 25 27.8% 0.96 6 26.1% 3 3.3% 17
UMBC 15 19.2% 1.60 4 11.8% 5 6.4% 23
JMU 17 21.3% 1.06 4 9.3% 10 12.5% 16
Campbell 9 12.2% 2.22 5 10.4% 3 4.1% 10
Avg 18 22.1% 1.17 5.3 13.1% 6.8 8.4% 17.7
Natl Avg. 19.2% 9.4% 10.8%

 

Observations based on those numbers (keeping in mind, it is just these six games, so sample size must be considered):

  • In these contests, The Citadel got more points as a percentage of its offense from 3-point shooting (34.0%) than does the average D-1 squad (31.4%). Free throws have not been a major part of the offense, at least compared to the rest of the country. Somewhat curiously, that has also been true for The Citadel’s opponents in this survey; in all games, however, that definitely isn’t the case.
  • The Bulldogs need to improve from the charity stripe, not just in quantity but in quality. The Citadel’s 66.7% rate isn’t good enough (and that number doesn’t significantly change when all games are included).  Conversely, Bulldog opponents are making their free throws at a solid rate.
  • Besides not shooting free throws all that well, The Citadel isn’t making a high enough percentage of three-point shots; the Bulldogs have been erratic at best from beyond the arc. That is why The Citadel has a below-average effective field goal percentage.
  • The Citadel’s offensive rebounding rate isn’t half-bad. Also, while the defensive rebounding rate for all games is terrible, when just these six games are surveyed, the Bulldogs look much better in that category. In other words, The Citadel is more or less holding its own on the boards against “like” opposition. The Bulldogs’ opponents have more rebounds mainly because The Citadel has missed more shots.
  • On offense, the Bulldogs’ turnover rate is acceptable. The defense is forcing its fair share of turnovers but needs to create even more, particularly of the “live-ball” variety.
  • The Citadel’s assist-to-made basket rate is slightly below average. Opponents are doing better than the Bulldogs in this area.
  • The steal rate for the Bulldogs is good, but is not nearly as impressive when the games against non-D1 teams aren’t counted.
  • According to kenpom, The Citadel’s average height (that is, the average height of the players on the court at any given time) is shorter than all but one D-1 team. (In case you were wondering, Southern Mississippi is 351st.) Therefore it is not much of a surprise that the Bulldogs do not block a lot of shots, and that their opponents will have an advantage on the other side of the court as well (the stat only takes 2-point shooting into account).

A few other points worth mentioning:

  • The Citadel’s bench minutes (all games) is second in all of D-1, behind only Northwestern State. This is reflected in the average minutes played by each player on the roster, with eleven Bulldogs averaging 10 or more minutes per game.
  • In terms of experience, the Bulldogs — well, they don’t have a lot. Per kenpom, The Citadel is 344th out of 351 teams in that category. That said, the Bulldogs do have a reasonable amount of returning experience, as their “minutes continuity” (the percentage of a team’s minutes played by the same players from last season to the current campaign) is basically average.

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I’m still trying to decipher the myriad statistics provided via subscription by Synergy Sports, so I’m not going to do any serious breakdowns based on those numbers. (Synergy’s definition of a possession appears to be different from the one used by kenpom and most other analysts, which has complicated things.) That said, here are a few pieces of information to digest (all 12 games are included for these stats):

  • The Citadel is average to below average in most situational categories, but the Bulldogs are better than average at scoring when there is less than 4 seconds remaining on the shot clock. The Citadel is also better than most teams on the defensive side of the ball when the shot clock is about to expire. I’m not sure why that would be the case; perhaps routinely playing a chaotic style of basketball lends itself to keeping one’s head when the shot clock hits 5. Also, there is a sample size issue, since the shot clock is rarely a factor when the Bulldogs are playing.
  • The Bulldogs are good at running offense on out-of-bounds plays from under the basket, but are not nearly as good when in-bounding from the sidelines.
  • The Citadel’s most successful offense in the half-court is finding players coming off screens. Isolation plays and cuts to the basket have also been profitable.
  • The Bulldogs are below average on put-backs directly coming from offensive rebounds, and are not good at all running the pick and roll (the “roll man” only gets the ball 22.9% of the time on that play, if I’m reading the numbers correctly).
  • Defensively, The Citadel has struggled coming out of timeouts. Also, the Bulldogs have been poor defending out-of-bounds plays under the basket.
  • The Bulldogs have done a good job against the pick and roll. Conversely, spot-up shooters have fared well against The Citadel.

According to Synergy Sports’ statistical breakdown, the two most efficient offensive performers for the Bulldogs have been Matt Frierson and Alex Reed. In related news:

Freshman Alex Reed has earned a starting spot with his recent play, scoring 11 points in a Dec. 19 loss at Ohio State.

“Alex has turned into a really good player for us,” [Duggar] Baucom said. “He’s shooting well from 3-point range, gets to loose balls and is in the right place at the right time on defense.”

I’ll discuss more of the Synergy stuff when I more fully understand all the information, assuming I will actually manage to get to that point…

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Below is a table of full-season D-1 only statistics of note for The Citadel (I’ll be using this same format when discussing the Bulldogs’ opponents). Keep in mind that A) this doesn’t include stats from the games against Oglethorpe, Trinity Baptist, and Point; and B) there are 351 teams in Division I.

– The Citadel’s adjusted tempo: 81.5 (second nationally; Savannah State is first)

The Citadel Offense Rank Defense Rank Natl Avg
Efficiency 99.3 257 113.2 334 103.5
Effective FG% 46.2 307 59.8 343 50.8
Turnover % 17.5 81 20.6 107 19.2
Off. Reb. % 26.9 239 37.3 345 29.2
FTA/FGA 25.5 325 26.8 44 33.9

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Okay, let’s take a very quick look at the next three upcoming opponents:

Western Carolina — December 30, 1:00 pm ET, McAlister Field House

Western Carolina is 4-8, with two non-D1 wins. Seven of its eight losses are to kenpom top-150 opponents; the exception is a home loss to High Point.

WCU also has victories over Appalachian State and UNC-Asheville. Those are both decent wins (UNCA has beaten both Wofford and UNC-Greensboro).

– WCU’s average adjusted tempo: 70.5 (138th nationally)

WCU Offense Rank Defense Rank Natl Avg
Efficiency 98.1 275 108.3 271 103.5
Effective FG% 46.7 292 56.6 322 50.8
Turnover % 21.9 300 20.9 89 19.2
Off. Reb. % 26.0 263 35.5 331 29.2
FTA/FGA 28.9 281 42.2 303 33.9

Western Carolina doesn’t get to the foul line too often, but its opponents do. The Catamounts also struggle keeping opponents off the offensive glass.

WCU does force a lot of turnovers on defense, but it also commits way too many on offense.

Per one source that deals in such matters, Western Carolina is a one-point favorite over The Citadel. The over/under is 170.5.

The prediction from kenpom: The Citadel 88, Western Carolina 87

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Furman — January 4, 7:30 pm ET, Timmons Arena

  • Streaming: SoCon Digital Network

Furman is 9-4 so far this year. The Paladins have some solid wins (UNC-Asheville, Elon, Northeastern). Three of FU’s four losses are to kenpom top-50 opponents, all on the road — Butler, Duke, and Tennessee. The game against the Volunteers wasn’t decided until the final seconds.

The Paladins also lost at home to Winthrop by 19 points. That seems to be an outlier.

Furman is led by reigning SoCon player of the year Devin Sibley, who averaged 17.7 points per game last season. So far in 2017-18, the senior from Knoxville is averaging 16.2 points per contest. If he can improve his free throw shooting, he has a chance to be a 50-40-80 player (FG%, 3FG%, FT%).

Before playing The Citadel, Furman will travel to VMI on December 30.

– Furman’s adjusted tempo: 70.1 (156th nationally)

Furman Offense Rank Defense Rank Natl Avg
Efficiency 105.5 123 101.8 136 103.5
Effective FG% 51.7 142 51.9 209 50.8
Turnover % 18.2 119 21.5 65 19.2
Off. Reb. % 29.7 164 33.4 302 29.2
FTA/FGA 28.0 300 29.9 99 33.9

Free throws seem to be an irregular occurrence in Furman games. Other than the lack of charity tosses, the Paladins’ offensive numbers are good across the board.

Furman’s opponents have had an edge on the offensive boards, but FU makes up for that by forcing plenty of turnovers.

The prediction from kenpom: Furman 96, The Citadel 78

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Wofford — January 6, 7:00 pm ET, Richardson Indoor Arena

  • Streaming: ESPN3

Wofford is 8-4 this year, with the eighth of those wins a monster victory over North Carolina in Chapel Hill. The Terriers are 2-0 in the ACC this year, having also beaten Georgia Tech in Spartanburg.

WC’s losses are to South Carolina (in the game that opened Wofford’s new hoops facility), Texas Tech, California, and UNC-Asheville. All four of those defeats were by at least 14 points, which makes the success against the Tar Heels and Yellow Jackets all the more unexpected (well, at least the UNC game — Georgia Tech has also lost to Grambling State).

– Wofford’s adjusted tempo: 65.9 (330th nationally; the Terriers and Bulldogs will be an interesting contrast)

Wofford Offense Rank Defense Rank Natl Avg
Efficiency 106.5 112 107.3 259 103.5
Effective FG% 53.1 98 56.4 316 50.8
Turnover % 19.2 182 20.8 93 19.2
Off. Reb. % 22 326 30 208 29.2
FTA/FGA 28.3 295 40.5 281 33.9

Wofford’s blowout losses tend to skew the Terriers’ numbers to a certain extent. Wofford shoots the ball very well, but has also allowed some high-efficiency scoring games from its opponents (teams have taken advantage of the three-ball to an unusual degree against WC).

The Terriers are led offensively by Fletcher Magee, who is averaging 24.9 points per game. He is shooting an outrageous 55% from three-land, and that’s with a fairly high volume of shots (102 in 12 games). Magee is a junior from Orlando.

Wofford has two upcoming games before playing The Citadel. The Terriers travel to UNC-Greensboro on December 30, and host VMI on January 4.

The prediction from kenpom: Wofford 92, The Citadel 78

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Happy hooping!

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