– Monday’s notes and observations
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Let’s talk about ratings and rankings for a moment…
There are a lot of computer ratings out there, and some of them include FCS schools. Below is a chart of the SoCon schools in which ten such ratings systems are listed, with their respective preseason rankings of each school compiled and averaged.
Key:
- M = Massey Ratings
- D = Daniel Curry Index
- L = Laz Index
- B = Born Power Index
- E = Entropy System
- C = CSL Ratings
- V = Versus Sports Simulator
- S = Sagarin Ratings
- G = Congrove Computer Rankings
- R = Dunchess Ratings
Please note that I am just listing in-conference ordinal rankings before the first games were played last week; for example, Samford is the highest-rated SoCon team in the Massey Ratings, with VMI second and Chattanooga third. In terms of their ranking within FCS, those schools entered the 2021 fall campaign ranked 42nd (Samford), 51st (VMI), and 53rd (Chattanooga) by Massey.
| 2021 Preseason | M | D | L | B | E | C | V | S | G | R | Ratings avg | |
| Samford | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2.20 | |
| VMI | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2.70 | |
| Chattanooga | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3.10 | |
| Furman | 5 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4.30 | |
| ETSU | 7 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 4.90 | |
| Wofford | 4 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 5.50 | |
| Mercer | 8 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6.00 | |
| The Citadel | 6 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7.40 | |
| WCU | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8.90 |
A few quick observations:
– In general, the computer ratings systems do not favor SoCon schools. An extreme example of this is the Dunchess Ratings, where the highest-ranked league team (VMI) is only 57th nationally. Western Carolina ranks next-to-last in all of FCS in that system.
– The highest-ranked conference squad in any of the ratings systems is Samford, ranked 13th by the Born Power Index. SU fares better in the computer ratings systems than any other league team, both by average and from a median perspective (not ranking lower than third in the SoCon in any of the surveyed systems).
– The computers do not know what to make of Furman this season. ETSU is also a source of considerable confusion.
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I also averaged four “human” polls — the SoCon media and coaches’ polls, and the predicted order of finish for Lindy’s magazine preview and The Analyst.
| 2021 Fall | Lindy’s | SoCon Media | SoCon coaches | The Analyst | Rank avg | |
| Chattanooga | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.50 | |
| VMI | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2.25 | |
| ETSU | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3.00 | |
| Samford | 7 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 4.50 | |
| Furman | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4.75 | |
| Mercer | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5.50 | |
| Wofford | 5 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 6.75 | |
| The Citadel | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7.75 | |
| WCU | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.00 |
These rankings tend to mirror each other much more than the computer ratings systems. The humans do not think as much of Samford as the computers do, but like East Tennessee State a lot more than the machines.
I have to wonder if the computers like Samford’s offensive output (this might also explain the ratings systems’ inexplicable love affair with Ivy League teams). On the other hand, there might be a mathematical bias against ETSU’s tendency to play close games.
Flesh-and-blood observers are more inclined to look at the overall record from the previous season, and extrapolate from that — regardless of how that record came to be.
Does any of this matter? Not really. Ultimately, we won’t need computers or preseason polls, as everything will be settled on the field.
(Hopefully.)
Filed under: Football, The Citadel | Tagged: FCS, SoCon, The Citadel |
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