Schedule analysis: Which teams will The Citadel’s opponents face before playing the Bulldogs? What about afterwards? Sandwich games? Look-aheads?

Posted on August 8, 2025 by Sandlapper Spike

Sometimes, the schedule works in your favor, and sometimes it doesn’t. For this post, I’m going to review the games teams play the week before facing The Citadel…and what they have lined up the following week…and well, a few other games along the way.

Are there “look ahead” games? What about “sandwich” games? Does anyone have a bye week before playing the Bulldogs?

Let’s check it out.

—

August 30 — North Dakota State at The Citadel, noon ET

It is the season opener for both teams, so there are obviously no games the week before for either squad. In last year’s finale, The Citadel rolled up 288 yards rushing against ACC champ Clemson, while North Dakota State won its final contest of the season by three points.

The week after facing The Citadel, NDSU is on the road again, heading to Nashville to take on Tennessee State. The Tigers made the playoffs last year, but have since lost head coach Eddie George (who took the Bowling Green job in the spring) and a sizable chunk of the postseason roster. At least one statistics maven has asserted that TSU ranks last in returning production among all FCS teams.

NDSU debuts at home on September 13 against Southeast Missouri State, then has a bye before beginning MVFC play on September 27 with a Homecoming matchup versus South Dakota (which defeated the Bison last year).

September 6 — The Citadel at Samford, 3:30 pm ET

Samford hosts West Georgia on Thursday, August 28, so SU will get two extra days of preparation before facing The Citadel in the league opener for both teams (and has the added benefit of staying at home). Don’t expect Samford to look past West Georgia, however, as the Wolves upset the Birmingham Bulldogs last season. That was actually WGU’s first game as an FCS team.

After playing The Citadel, Samford will travel to Waco for a matchup against Baylor and its highly regarded quarterback, Sawyer Robertson. That will be a very difficult road opener, and is the first of two straight games away from home for SU, which faces Western Carolina in Cullowhee on September 20.

Samford’s final road game of the year, by the way, is also against a Power 4 opponent from the state of Texas, as SU plays at Texas A&M on November 22.

September 13 — The Citadel at Gardner-Webb, 7:00 pm ET

Gardner-Webb has one of the tougher stretches to begin the year in all of FCS.

G-W opens at Western Carolina, which is ranked 18th in the Stats Perform Top 25 Preseason Poll. The Runnin’ Bulldogs then travel to Atlanta to face Georgia Tech, which was picked 4th in the ACC preseason poll.

That is the game Gardner-Webb will play before its matchup with The Citadel, and will be a stern test, though it is worth noting that the Yellow Jackets have a recent history of struggling against FCS opponents nicknamed Bulldogs.

The week after hosting The Citadel, Gardner-Webb has a second FBS game, making the trip up north to tangle with defending MAC champion Ohio.

After a bye week, G-W finally begins conference play on October 4 with a home game versus Charleston Southern. I’m mentioning this mostly because that game has recently been dubbed the “BBQ Bowl“:

The Runnin’ Bulldogs and the Buccaneers will compete annually for bragging rights and the North-South BBQ Trophy, which features a hefty hog adorned with a placard to engrave each year’s winning team and score.

Most importantly, the losing team will be tasked with supplying a barbecue feast to the winning side — North Carolina-style (Western BBQ, of course) or South Carolina-style, as chosen by the victors.

Presumably, the winning team will choose South Carolina-style BBQ, regardless of which squad wins the game.

September 20 — Mercer at The Citadel, 2:00 pm ET (Parents’ Weekend)

Mercer, the preseason SoCon favorite, has a fairly weird start to the season. The Bears will face UC Davis of the Big Sky in Week 0 (on August 23), playing in the FCS Kickoff game at the Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama. Both teams are ranked in the Stats Perform preseason poll (UC Davis is 8th, Mercer 11th). That game will be televised on ESPN at 7:00 pm ET, which won’t be bad at all in terms of exposure.

The following week, Mercer hosts Presbyterian. The Bears then have a bye week before beginning league play with a home game versus Wofford. The following week, Mercer travels to Charleston to face the Bulldogs.

After the game against The Citadel, Mercer stays on the road to play East Tennessee State before returning to Macon to meet Samford. Then, on October 11, Mercer plays Princeton in New Jersey, trying to become the second SoCon team to win at Powers Field. MU has a second bye after that game (getting an extra bye as a result of playing on Week 0).

September 27 — The Citadel at Chattanooga, 6:00 pm ET

Chattanooga has a tough schedule, kind of low-key in a way, but demanding nonetheless. The Mocs open the season at Memphis, and then play another road game at Tennessee Tech. The Golden Eagles won 7 games last year, including their last five, and are ranked #21 in the Stats Perform preseason poll.

After its home opener against Stetson, which should be a bit of a breather (but you never know), Chattanooga has another road game against a team ranked in the preseason poll, Tarleton State (#10). If you are unfamiliar with Tarleton State, don’t be too upset, as the Texans have only been in FCS since 2020. Despite just arriving in Division I, however, TSU’s power brokers already have designs on a spot in FBS.

Chattanooga hosts The Citadel the week following its game at Tarleton State. The Mocs then play at VMI, facing military schools in consecutive weeks, before a bye week that will probably be much-needed.

October 4 — Bye Week for The Citadel

The Citadel is the only SoCon team not playing on October 4.

Without the Bulldogs in the mix, what are your viewing options? It is hard to imagine watching football if The Citadel isn’t involved, so I would recommend making vacation plans of some kind, perhaps an overseas trip.

If you really insist on watching some pigskin, though, here is a list of some of the FBS games which will be played on October 4:

  • Miami (FL) at Florida State
  • Clemson at North Carolina
  • Vanderbilt at Alabama
  • Texas at Florida
  • Wisconsin at Michigan
  • Minnesota at Ohio State
  • Kansas State at Baylor
  • Texas Tech at Houston
  • Air Force at Navy
  • Boise State at Notre Dame

Among the teams also on a bye for the week: South Carolina, Auburn, LSU, Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi, Tennessee, Georgia Tech, Oregon, Southern California, Iowa, Arizona State, and Utah.

So yes, October 4 is a fairly popular bye week.

October 11 — Valdosta State at The Citadel, 2:00 pm ET (Hall of Fame Weekend/Military Appreciation Day)

I’m still not sure why The Citadel decided to schedule a non-conference game against last year’s Division II national runner-up; it just seems to me that if another home game was desired (laudable) and only non-D1 options were on the table (okay, whatever), settling on a mid-season game against a program as historically successful as the Blazers wasn’t really the way to go.

That was under the previous athletics administration, to be sure.

At any rate, Valdosta State (which has a new coach and a revamped roster) will face The Citadel after playing two straight home games. Following a bye week, VSU hosts UNC Pembroke on September 27, and then Lenoir-Rhyne the week before playing the Bulldogs. The Blazers shouldn’t be looking past either of those squads, particularly Lenoir-Rhyne, which won 10 games last season and made it to the second round of the D-2 playoffs.

That said, neither of those games is a conference matchup, as VSU hardly has any conference matchups. Due to a mass exodus of schools after last season, the Gulf South Conference only has four football-playing members for the 2025 campaign. As a result, Valdosta State won’t play a league contest until November 1 against West Alabama — its first of just three conference games.

Following its game against The Citadel, VSU will have another bye week before hosting North Greenville for Homecoming, its seventh (and final) non-conference matchup of the season.

October 18 — Western Carolina at The Citadel, 2:00 pm ET

I mentioned earlier that Western Carolina opens its season by hosting Gardner-Webb. The next week, WCU plays at Wake Forest in one of the more interesting FCS-over-FBS possibilities on the September slate.

The Catamounts also have non-conference games in September against Elon (at home) and Campbell (on the road).

Prior to its matchup at The Citadel, Western Carolina hosts Furman. In fact, WCU will play all three South Carolina-based SoCon schools in consecutive weeks, as the Catamounts are at Wofford the week before facing the Paladins.

Following the game versus the Bulldogs, WCU has a bye week, and then finishes the regular-season campaign with contests against Chattanooga, Mercer, East Tennessee State, and VMI (the first and last of those being road games).

October 25 — The Citadel at Furman, 2:00 pm ET

This matchup will be Furman’s Homecoming game, though FU will still have two home contests remaining after the contest. The Paladins are at Wofford the week before facing The Citadel, and host Mercer the week afterwards.

Furman then travels to Chattanooga before playing its final game at Paladin Stadium, this time against VMI. The Paladins finish the regular season at Clemson.

Furman’s bye week this year is rather early (September 20), so it will play nine straight weeks to close the campaign — eight consecutive league contests before the finale in Death Valley.

The Paladins have three non-conference games besides the Clemson matchup, and they are also Furman’s first three contests of the season. FU has home games versus William & Mary and Presbyterian and a road trip to play Campbell.

November 1 — VMI at The Citadel, 2:00 pm ET (Military Classic of the South)

The Keydets open the season with all four of their non-conference games, three of which are on the road (Navy, Bucknell, and Richmond). VMI’s one non-league home contest is a matchup with Ferrum (a D2 school). It then enjoys a bye week on September 27 before beginning SoCon action.

VMI’s game against The Citadel is the second of two straight road contests for the Keydets. The week before playing the Bulldogs, VMI travels to Mercer.

The following week is Military Appreciation Day in Lexington, Virginia, and the Keydets are hosting Wofford. They will then play at Furman, another instance of a team playing three consecutive matchups against the SoCon’s Palmetto State trio.

VMI will then conclude regular-season play with a home game versus Western Carolina.

November 8 — The Citadel at Mississippi, 1:00 pm ET

As mentioned above, Mississippi has a bye week on October 4, just like The Citadel.

Mississippi’s other three non-conference games are against Georgia State (the season opener), Tulane, and Washington State. All of those are also in Oxford. Mississippi thus has eight home games this season, including three of its last four regular-season contests.

Oh, but that closing stretch. The Citadel is a “sandwich” game for the Rebels, with Mississippi hosting South Carolina the week before and Florida the week afterwards. Following the game against the Gators, the Rebels have another bye week before facing Mississippi State in Starkville in the Egg Bowl.

Prior to that home game versus the Gamecocks, Mississippi has two road games — at Georgia and at Oklahoma.

November 15 — Wofford at The Citadel, 2:00 pm ET (Homecoming)

Wofford opens the season in Orangeburg against South Carolina State, and then hosts Richmond. After beginning SoCon play the following week at Mercer, the Terriers make the journey to Blacksburg to face Virginia Tech (the Mike Young Invitational).

All of Wofford’s games after its September 27 bye week are league affairs except one, an October 11 matchup against Michael Vick’s Norfolk State squad (kind of a Virginia Tech theme here). That game is Homecoming for the Terriers.

Before facing The Citadel, Wofford travels to VMI, so the Terriers get the military schools back-to-back. After playing the Bulldogs, Wofford finishes the regular season with a home game versus Chattanooga.

November 22 — The Citadel at East Tennessee State, 1:00 pm ET

The Buccaneers start the season with four non-conference games, hosting Murray State in the opener before making the trek to Knoxville to do battle with Tennessee. ETSU then plays at West Georgia before a home game versus Elon.

East Tennessee State has a late bye week, not taking a break until November 1; the week before, it has a Homecoming game versus Wofford.

ETSU then finishes the regular season with two road games against Samford and Western Carolina before hosting The Citadel.

—

There you have it. None of The Citadel’s opponents has a bye week before playing The Citadel, though Samford does have those aforementioned two extra days of prep because its opener is on a Thursday.

On the other side of the equation, the Bulldogs’ one “rest” advantage is against a non-conference opponent, so none of its SoCon competitors are affected.

Two of The Citadel’s opponents have a bye week after playing the Bulldogs — Valdosta State and Western Carolina.

The Citadel has two home games against teams that play a road game before facing the Bulldogs at Johnson Hagood Stadium — VMI and Wofford.

The Bulldogs face two squads that play at home before also hosting The Citadel — Samford and Mississippi.

Basically, there are no real scheduling breaks in either direction. It is just a very tough slate.

Filed under: Football, The Citadel | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

Football attendance review: Johnson Hagood Stadium, the SoCon, and FCS in general

Posted on July 15, 2025 by Sandlapper Spike

This post is primarily about home attendance at The Citadel, which is a subject I’ve written about many, many times over the years. My first post on the subject was in 2009. What can I say, I’m old.

I used to write about attendance every single year, but then 2020 happened and, well


The first part of this post is a bit of a cut-and-paste job from previous writeups on this topic, along with new and updated information. I’ve updated the original spreadsheet, and also included some new spreadsheets for the SoCon, along with a brief review of FCS as a whole.

—

Here is a spreadsheet that includes attendance information for The Citadel at Johnson Hagood Stadium:

Annual attendance at Johnson Hagood Stadium, 1964-2024

The spreadsheet tracks attendance for The Citadel’s home football games and has now been updated to include games through the 2024 season. It lists year-by-year totals and average game attendance, and the win/loss record for the Bulldogs in each season. There is also a category ranking the years by average attendance.

I have also included home win/loss records for each season.

The 2020 season includes the four games played in the fall of 2020 (one of which was at home) and the eight contests played in the spring of 2021 (four of which took place at JHS). The games referenced on the spreadsheet for the 2021 campaign are only those that were played in the fall (technically some of them took place in late summer, but you know what I mean).

Other columns refer to the program’s winning percentage over a two-year, three-year, five-year, and ten-year period, with the “current” season being the final year in each category. For example, the three-year winning percentage for 1970 (54.84%) is made up of the 1968, 1969, and 1970 seasons.

I include those categories mainly to see what impact, if any, constant winning (or losing) has had on long-term attendance trends.

I have also compared average attendance for the first two games of a season to the last two contests of the same campaign, going back to the 2009 season. There are inherent sample-size issues when making such a comparison (weather, stadium construction [or deconstruction], opponent fan base, etc.), but it doesn’t hurt to see how things have shaken out. The fall 2020/spring 2021 sort-of-season is not included below, for obvious reasons.

  • 2009 [4-7 overall record]; First two home games, average attendance of 13,636; final two home games, average attendance of 11,736 (including Homecoming)
  • 2010 [3-8 overall record]; First two home games, average attendance of 10,904; final two home games, average attendance of 11,805 (including Homecoming)
  • 2011 [4-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 12,756; final two home games, average attendance of 12,387 (including Homecoming)
  • 2012 [7-4 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 13,281; final two home games, average attendance of 13,715 (including Homecoming)
  • 2013 [5-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 13,370; final two home games, average attendance of 12,948 (including Homecoming)
  • 2014 [5-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 9,700; final two home games, average attendance of 9,563 (including Homecoming)
  • 2015 [9-4 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 8,356; final two home games, average attendance of 12,465 (including Homecoming)
  • 2016 [10-2 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 13,299; final two regular-season home games, average attendance of 13,996 (including Homecoming); playoff game attendance of 10,336
  • 2017 [5-6 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 8,718; final two home games, average attendance of 9,496 (including Homecoming)
  • 2018 [5-6 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 9,559; final two home games, average attendance of 9,511 (including Homecoming and a rescheduled game)
  • 2019 [6-6 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 8,517; final two home games, average attendance of 9,141 (including Homecoming)
  • 2021 [4-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 9,503; final two home games, average attendance of 10,189 (including Homecoming)
  • 2022 [4-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 10,339 (including Parents’ Day); final two home games, average attendance of 10,022 (including Homecoming and a game against a non-NCAA/NAIA opponent)
  • 2023 [0-11 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 10,882 (including Parents’ Day); final two home games, average attendance of 11,016 (including Homecoming)
  • 2024: [5-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 9,723; final two home games, average attendance of 10,745 (including Homecoming)

Since 1964, the Bulldogs’ record at Johnson Hagood Stadium is 200-139 (59.0%). The average home attendance over that time period is 13,492. However, there has not been a season in which home attendance averaged more than 13,492 since 2012.

The current stadium capacity is less than 12,000, due to the demolition of the East stands in the spring of 2017. Thus, The Citadel will not see an increase in attendance to the levels of the early part of this century anytime in the near future (and if Charleston’s Board of Architectural Review, heavily influenced by NIMBY-ism, continues to hold up the process, the school might not get to replace the East stands until the sun turns red).

The higher attendance figures for the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s are even further out of sight.

Last year’s average home attendance of 10,225 ranked 52nd out of the 61 seasons included in this survey. The five lowest season averages in attendance have all occurred since 2014.

As always, I need to point out that the cutoff for accuracy in attendance numbers means years like 1959 (eight wins), 1960 (Tangerine Bowl victory), and 1961 (SoCon title) cannot be included for comparison in this review, not to mention any of the other years from 1948, when the most recent iteration of Johnson Hagood Stadium opened, through the 1963 season. I do not have a high degree of confidence in any “public” season attendance figures prior to 1964. ( A few skeptics might suggest I shouldn’t have a large amount of confidence in some of the numbers post-1964, either.)

It is generally accepted that the largest home attendance for The Citadel at any pre-1964 contest was for the Homecoming game against Clemson in 1948, when an estimated 16,000 fans were present for the dedication of the “new” Johnson Hagood Stadium. It is likely that more than twenty years passed before the stadium had a game attendance higher than that (when 19,276 fans attended the home opener in 1969, a 14-10 victory for Red Parker’s Bulldogs over Arkansas State).

Here are the top average attendance marks over two-year, three-year, five-year, and ten-year periods:

  • Two years: 1975-76 (18,250). Rest of the top five: 1991-92, 1979-80, 1990-91, 1989-90
  • Three years: 1990-92 (17,457). Rest of the top five: 1989-91, 1978-80, 1991-93, 1975-77
  • Five years: 1988-92 (17,126). Rest of the top five: 1989-93, 1975-79, 1976-80, 1990-94
  • Ten years: 1975-84 (16,250). Rest of the top five: 1983-92, 1974-83, 1976-85, 1984-93

Average attendance by decade:

  • 1964-69: 11,998
  • 1970-79: 15,053
  • 1980-89: 15,398
  • 1990-99: 14,955
  • 2000-09: 13,850
  • 2010-19: 11,179
  • 2020-24: 8,910

The 2020-24 period includes the 2020-21 home games. If those are discounted (as they probably should be for this exercise), the average attendance so far this decade is 10,254.

—

I’ll throw in this spreadsheet as well, which charts Homecoming games at The Citadel since the first such contest in 1924. It includes attendance for all but three of those games (and every game since 1960), so it is somewhat applicable for this post.

Since 1960, The Citadel has had at least 10,000 fans in attendance for Homecoming for every game except one (8,500 for a matchup against Furman in 1965). The record for Homecoming attendance is 21,811, set in 1992 when the Bulldogs played VMI.

Homecoming at The Citadel, 1924-2024

—

Now let’s take a look at the SoCon.

Here is a spreadsheet that lists the attendance numbers for all SoCon games (conference matchups only) in 2024:

2024 SoCon attendance (league games only)

(The formatting might not be ideal, but it gets the job done; at least, I hope it does.)

Last season, Chattanooga was the top overall road draw in league play. In four road games, the Mocs played before crowds averaging 10,293. Those numbers were buoyed by the location of those four contests, with the host schools being The Citadel, Furman, ETSU, and Western Carolina. Those four ranked 1-2-4-5 in home attendance for conference games.

Conversely, Mercer ranked last as a road draw, with an average of 4,171.5 fans, thanks almost entirely to playing away from home against Chattanooga, VMI, Samford, and Wofford, the four schools that made up the bottom half of the league in conference home attendance (with the Terriers bringing up the rear with an average of 3,589 fans per league matchup).

In 2022, Chattanooga played the same four teams on the road, and was the league’s road draw leader. That same year, Mercer was last as a road draw, playing the same four opponents as it did last season. In other words, the numbers probably say more about the teams they played than the Mocs and Bears.

There are a couple of things to note for 2024. Two games are not part of the home league attendance totals, due to the impact of Hurricane Helene. Furman’s home game against Samford was postponed and ultimately canceled, while Western Carolina’s home matchup versus Wofford was played before no fans (due to ongoing rescue and recovery efforts in that region).

The highest-attended league game in 2024 was Western Carolina’s home finale against VMI, with 13,022 spectators.

The lowest-attended league game (not counting the Wofford-WCU matchup referenced earlier) was, by far, Wofford’s home game versus Mercer on September 28, with an announced attendance of 1,219. Both teams were ranked at the time, and the box score listed the weather as “sunny”.

[Edit: a comment for this post alerted me to the fact that Mercer-Wofford was yet another game affected by Hurricane Helene. The surrounding area was mostly without power, traffic lights were down, and there were long lines for gasoline as well. We’ll give the Wofford community a mulligan for that one.]

—

The attendance for some of these games, particular those at Wofford, inspired me to compile another chart, this one listing attendance for The Citadel’s road matchups against current SoCon schools. I decided to start with the 1997 season, which was Wofford’s first as a league member (and was also the first year Chattanooga played in Finley Stadium).

Road attendance in The Citadel’s games against current SoCon schools, 1997-2024

The above spreadsheet doesn’t feature all of the Bulldogs’ league road games over that time period, of course, as it doesn’t include former SoCon members Appalachian State, Elon, Georgia Southern, and Marshall. It also lists games at VMI when that school was not in the conference.

Some of these totals have been fairly consistent over time (the games at VMI, for example), but there has been variance over the years, and there has also been a decline in attendance in some places. The last two games the Bulldogs have played against Wofford have been noteworthy in that regard.

I’m not sure what to make of that, particularly when The Citadel has been the best “traveling” fan base in the SoCon over the last decade and a half (a subject I wrote about a few years ago). How much of that has to do with The Citadel? What about the home support?

Perhaps it just comes down to philosophical changes in how to count attendance by certain school administrations. The long-term effect of COVID-19 probably needs to be considered, as well, at least when it comes to how people now allocate leisure time. I have to wonder if there is a difference between FBS and FCS in that respect — but to be honest, I don’t really have any idea.

In 2016, the SoCon average attendance (all home games, league and out-of-conference) was 8,386. Last season, it was 8,169. That isn’t a big difference, so alarm bells shouldn’t be going off around the league. It is something worth monitoring, though.

—

Finally, a brief look at FCS attendance. I wrote a lot on this subject two years ago. I’m not going over all that ground again, but I would like to make a few observations about the 2024 campaign from an attendance perspective.

Here is a spreadsheet that includes FCS home attendance for 2024:

FCS home attendance 2024

There are various columns on that spreadsheet besides the breakdown of 2024 attendance. I also included a column for 2023 average attendance, the average attendance for the 2012-2022 period (excluding fall 2020/spring 2021, and only listing the schools that were continuously in the subdivision during that time frame), and columns comparing the differential between attendance for 2012-2022 and the last two seasons.

Jackson State and Montana were 1-2 in attendance in 2024. Those two schools have occupied the top two places for most of the last decade.

The list includes two schools no longer in FCS as of 2025 (Delaware and Missouri State) and several schools that are recent entrants in the subdivision.

There were 25 FCS schools that averaged over 10,000 in home attendance last season. Of those, according to the participation release from the College Sports Commission, all opted in to the House settlement except for Holy Cross, Harvard, The Citadel, Idaho, and UC Davis.

On the other hand, 15 FCS schools averaged fewer than 2,500 fans per home game, with subdivision debutant Mercyhurst bringing up the rear (1,183 per game in four home contests).

—

Okay, I think that is enough about attendance for now. Soon, there will be 2025 attendance figures to discuss…

Filed under: Football, The Citadel | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

100 years of Homecoming at The Citadel

Posted on November 7, 2024 by Sandlapper Spike

The Citadel vs. Chattanooga, to be played at historic Johnson Hagood Stadium (not including the East stands), with kickoff at 2:00 pm ET on November 9, 2024.

The game will be streamed on ESPN+. Jason Kempf will handle play-by-play, while Vad Lee supplies the analysis. Matison Little is the sideline reporter. 

The contest can be heard on radio on 102.1-FM in Charleston [audio link]. Brian Giffin calls the game alongside analyst Lee Glaze.

We are about to celebrate an anniversary of sorts: 100 years of Homecoming at The Citadel — or as Colonel Bond described it, “Home-Coming Day”:

The first Home-Coming Day of the Greater Citadel was held on October 25, 1924. Hundreds of the alumni — old men, middle-aged, and young men — many from distant states — came to the celebration.

…The morning was spent on the campus, with many interesting reunions and talks of old times, and at noon everyone gathered on Indian Hill under the live oaks for an al fresco barbecue lunch.

Shortly after one o’clock the crowd began to gather in groups towards Hampton Park, where the chief event of the day was to take place. This was the Furman-Citadel football game, in comparison with which all other features of Home-Coming Day (and there were several others of noteworthy interest) paled into insignificance.

On this battlefield of the gridiron, two teams of stalwart warriors were to battle for the honor and renown of their Alma Mater, and to perform exploits that would put their names in big headlines in the morning papers. This was the opportunity, too, when the alumni could wear their college colors and show their loyalty to the old school.

— Oliver J. Bond, The Story of The Citadel

The Citadel won the game, 6-0. Late in the third quarter, running back Carl Hogrefe scored the contest’s only touchdown on a 4th-down plunge over the right side of the line. Reported attendance for the game, which was played at Hampton Park in a steady rain: 4,000.

Over 300 alumni returned to the military college for Homecoming in 1924. For many of them, it was their first time visiting the school at its new campus on the Ashley.

There were just 313 cadets at The Citadel during that school year (1924-25), all living in Padgett-Thomas Barracks. By 1927-28, with a newly built Murray Barracks in place, student enrollment had risen to 722 — and home football games were being played at the “original” Johnson Hagood Stadium (which opened for business on October 15, 1927).

A few years ago, I wrote that it would be neat if The Citadel’s 2024 Homecoming were to take place around the same date/weekend as the first Homecoming game in 1924, and that Furman would again be the opponent. Alas, none of that happened, although the 28-11 upset victory over Samford on October 26 was a nice consolation prize.

—

This Saturday will be The Citadel’s 97th Homecoming game. The Bulldogs are 49-45-2 in Homecoming contests.

At one point, The Citadel was 6-20-2 on Homecoming. As mentioned above, the Bulldogs defeated Furman in the initial contest, but after that game, wins were few and far between for many years. The Citadel finally attained a winning overall record in Homecoming again following a 48-21 victory over VMI in 2006.

A 10-game winning streak from 1969-1978 helped in that regard; that is the Bulldogs’ longest winning streak for Homecoming games. The second-longest, an eight-game run from 2012-2019, has given The Citadel a bit of a cushion when it comes to having a winning record in the celebration game.

I’ve put together a spreadsheet which details much of that history. Here it is:

Homecoming results at The Citadel

General trivia about Homecoming:

  • This will be the 78th Homecoming game played in November. There have been 14 October contests (though only two since 1967), and 4 December games (with the last of those occurring in 1949). The first of two 2021 Homecoming contests, a makeup of the COVID-canceled 2020 game, was held in September. (There is some disagreement as to whether or not that September 2021 game was in fact an “official” Homecoming event. The school’s website says it was, so I include it as such, admittedly with serious misgivings.)
  • The Bulldogs have faced 19 different Homecoming opponents over the years.
  • Saturday will mark the ninth time The Citadel has played Chattanooga in the game (with a record of 3-5 versus the Mocs). Only Furman (26 meetings) and VMI (19) have been the Bulldogs’ Homecoming opponent more often than Chattanooga.
  • Two of those eight Homecoming games against the Mocs have come on November 9, the same date as this year’s matchup, with The Citadel winning in 1996 (16-13) and Chattanooga prevailing in 2002 (34-31). In the ’96 contest, Reggie Moore blocked a late field goal attempt to preserve the win for the Bulldogs.
  • Western Carolina is the only current SoCon school never to have been a Homecoming opponent for The Citadel. Only two other schools with 25 or more matchups against the Bulldogs have not been an opponent for Homecoming: William & Mary and Newberry.
  • The Citadel is 22-14-2 in Homecoming games decided by 7 or fewer points, and has won 16 of the last 21 such contests. That includes a 3-0 record for the Bulldogs in overtime Homecoming games.
  • Bobby Ross was 5-0 at Homecoming, while Eddie Teague and Charlie Taaffe each won the game six times (both were 6-3 overall). Brent Thompson was 5-2.

Individual records on Homecoming include:

  • Mark Slawson holds the Homecoming game records for yardage (201, also the all-time school record), and TD receptions (4, tied for the school record), setting both marks in 1979.
  • Tim Russell’s 6 touchdowns and 362 yards passing in that 1979 game are both Homecoming records (and the TD mark is the school record, too).
  • Jeff Klein completed the most Bulldog passes in a Homecoming game (24 in 2002).
  • Slawson’s 4 TDs in the 1979 game set the record for most touchdowns scored in a Homecoming contest. That mark was matched by Lorenzo Ward in 2018, with all of Ward’s TDs coming on the ground.
  • Andre Roberts (2007 and 2008) and Gene Hightower (1967) share the record for receptions in a Homecoming game, with 9.
  • Tyler Renew’s 45 carries and 285 yards in the 2016 contest are both Homecoming records.
  • Eric Goins’ five field goals against VMI in 2015 established both the Homecoming and school records for most made field goals in a game. (As you might know, Goins is actually playing college football this season, nine years removed from setting that record; he is currently the kickoff specialist for Notre Dame after spending seven years in the Army.)
  • Jeff Varnadoe (1970) and Rusty Holt (1972) share the record for most interceptions in a Homecoming game, with 3 (both efforts came against Davidson). The school record for interceptions in a game is also 3.

Longest Homecoming plays by a Bulldog:

  • Run: 92 yards (TD), Nehemiah Broughton, 2004
  • Pass: 78 yards (TD), Marty Crosby to Sam Scadlock, 1978; Tim Russell to Mark Slawson, 1979
  • Kickoff return: 87 yards, Keith Gamble, 2010
  • Punt return: 80 yards (TD), Mark Slawson, 1980
  • Interception return: 75 yards (TD), Tevin Floyd, 2015
  • Field goal: 48 yards, Cody Clark, 2016
  • Punt: 85 yards, Albert Salvato, 1941

Incidentally, you’re not going to find that punt by Salvato in The Citadel’s official record book, but it happened — and to the best of my knowledge it is also the longest punt in school history.

Let me throw out one more Homecoming factoid, a favorite of mine:

  • Pat Green’s 25-yard field goal just before halftime of The Citadel’s 17-0 victory over VMI in 1964 was the first made field goal by a Bulldog at a Homecoming contest. Seriously, it was. The Citadel did not successfully convert a field goal attempt in its first 36 Homecoming games.

—

Now I think it is time to focus on the game this Saturday…

Maurice Drayton press conference

‘Beyond The Barracks’ Coach’s Show

Preview article in The Post and Courier

The Citadel game notes

Rusty Wright press conference

Preview article in the Chattanooga Times Free Press

Chattanooga game notes

Chattanooga is 5-4. That comes after starting 0-3, with two losses to FBS teams (one of which was Tennessee) and a home setback to Mercer. The Bears are currently one of two SoCon teams with just one loss in conference play.

The other league squad with one loss is Western Carolina, the team that beat UTC last week for the Mocs’ other conference defeat. In between those losses, Chattanooga won five straight games, including four in SoCon action (at East Tennessee State, at Furman, Wofford, VMI). 

UTC has two games remaining after playing The Citadel, a home contest with Samford and a non-conference road matchup with Austin Peay.

Chattanooga was the preseason favorite to win the SoCon, but with losses to the two teams ahead of the Mocs in the standings, it seems unlikely that UTC has much of a chance at the league’s automatic bid to the FCS playoffs. Thus, any realistic chance of postseason play for Chattanooga hinges on the Mocs winning their last three games and garnering an at-large bid.

That could happen, but Chattanooga might need a little bit of help elsewhere in addition to winning out, even if some current projections have the Mocs in the field as of this week (albeit barely).

UTC fans (and coaches) still recall a season-ending 27-21 home loss to The Citadel in the fall of 2021 that knocked Chattanooga out of that year’s playoff picture:

…that 2021 loss to The Citadel — which had some UTC players saying that some of their teammates essentially quit after a painful 10-6 road loss to Mercer the week before — has hurt some of the perception of the program when it comes to closing out the regular season.

Rusty Wright, now in his sixth season as head coach of the Mocs, revisited that game Tuesday.

“I don’t think those guys cared,” Wright said. “It was like pulling teeth on that sideline in the first half. I hadn’t seen it all year, and now all of a sudden it showed up and I didn’t even know who those guys were.

“But I haven’t felt it since then.”

From Chattanooga’s perspective, it would also be nice if the selection committee realizes that a couple of other conferences have rather fraudulent league standings. That would include the bloated CAA, where almost none of the top teams play each other, spending most of the season beating up on the lesser squads in the conference. 

We shall see. Of course, The Citadel would like to end Chattanooga’s postseason hopes this Saturday.

—

Chattanooga is well regarded in the computer systems. Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings have UTC as the 17th-best FCS squad, while the Massey Ratings rank the Mocs 19th in the sub-division. Both systems really like Chattanooga’s defense (10th overall in SP+, and 7th in Massey).

The Citadel in SP+: 83rd in FCS. Massey ranks the Bulldogs 69th. SP+ does not care for the military college’s offense (110th overall); its defensive ranking is considerably higher (33rd). Massey’s numbers for the two sides of the ball for the Bulldogs are 90th (offense) and 46th (defense).

SP+ has a projected score for Saturday of Chattanooga 29.8, The Citadel 15.2, while Massey pegs the final at 28-14, Mocs.

—

Let’s take a look at some statistical comparisons, using a spreadsheet with relevant statistics for all FCS teams through last weekend’s games:

FCS statistics through November 2, 2024

As noted earlier, Chattanooga has faced two FBS squads (and an all-D1 schedule). Both the Bulldogs and the Mocs have played nine games.

The Citadel’s offense vs. Chattanooga’s defense

  • TC averages 23.0 points per game; Chattanooga allows 22.9 (17.1 ppg if you take out the Tennessee game, which the Vols won 69-3)
  • TC averages 4.84 yards per play; Chattanooga allows 5.53 
  • TC rushes on 61.7% of its offensive plays; Chattanooga faces a rush attempt 51.5% of the time
  • TC averages 4.13 yards per rush (sack-adjusted); Chattanooga allows 4.57
  • TC averages 5.99 yards per pass attempt (sack-adjusted); Chattanooga allows 6.56
  • TC gives up a sack on 7.2% of its drop-backs; Chattanooga defensive sack rate of 4.8%
  • TC converts 37.12% of its 3rd-down attempts; Chattanooga allows 37.01%
  • TC has converted 10 of 18 4th-down attempts (55.56%); Chattanooga has allowed 7 of 12 (58.33%)
  • TC averages 4.33 estimated points per Red Zone trip; Chattanooga allows 5.19
  • TC averages 1.22 turnovers per game; Chattanooga has forced 2.22 turnovers per contest

—

Chattanooga’s offense vs. The Citadel’s defense 

  • Chattanooga averages 25.8 points per game; TC allows 19.8
  • Chattanooga averages 5.66 yards per play; TC allows 5.37
  • Chattanooga rushes on 55.6% of its offensive plays; TC faces a rush attempt 51.8% of the time
  • Chattanooga averages 3.84 yards per rush (sack-adjusted); TC allows 4.61
  • Chattanooga averages 7.94 yards per pass attempt (sack-adjusted); TC allows 6.19
  • Chattanooga gives up a sack on 4.2% of its drop-backs; TC defensive sack rate of 8.5%
  • Chattanooga converts 40.32% of its 3rd-down attempts; TC allows 32.74%
  • Chattanooga has converted on 4 of 7 4th-down attempts (57.14%); TC has allowed 9 of 19 (47.37%)
  • Chattanooga averages 4.78 estimated points per Red Zone trip; TC allows 4.64
  • Chattanooga averages 1.33 turnovers per game; TC has forced 1.33 turnovers per contest (yes, it’s a tie!)

—

Other stats of note

  • TC: 4.6 penalties per game (38.9 yards); Chattanooga: 6.0 penalties per game (51.6 yards)
  • TC: 42.05 net punting average; Chattanooga: 37.39 net punting average
  • TC: 0.11 turnover margin per game; Chattanooga: 0.89 turnover margin per game
  • TC: 30:33 time of possession average; Chattanooga: 31:29 TOP average

—

– The Mocs average 15.16 yards per pass completion, which leads the nation and is an indicator of the big-play nature of Chattanooga’s offense. The Citadel is 20th in FCS in this category (13.35 yards).

Chattanooga has had 33 pass plays this season of 20 or more yards. Eight different receivers have accounted for those catches, with three in particular carrying most of the load: Sam Phillips (11 receptions of 20+ yards, including an 84-yarder against Georgia State and a 78-yard grab versus Portland State); Javin Whatley (9, with a 71-yarder against Furman); and Chris Domercant (7, including a 65-yard catch versus Mercer).

All three of those receivers are juniors, and all three had at least two 20+ yard catches last week against Western Carolina (Domercant had three). All told, Chattanooga had nine such plays versus the Catamounts, and did so despite its backup quarterback playing the entire game.

Incidentally, Pro Football Focus (PFF) rated Chattanooga as having the top receiving outfit in FCS through Week 9 (so not including the WCU game). 

– While Chattanooga rushes on 55.6% of its offensive plays, only 37.7% of the Mocs’ total yards are via the ground attack.

As a comparison, The Citadel rushes on 61.7% of its offensive plays, with 52.6% of its total yardage coming on the ground.

– Chattanooga’s opportunistic defense is 6th nationally in turnovers forced per game, second in the SoCon (behind Mercer, which leads all of FCS in that category). The Mocs have 15 interceptions, tied for 2nd-most in the sub-division. (The Citadel’s defense is 68th in forced turnovers per contest.)

UTC has three defensive touchdowns this season, including a 75-yard scoop-and-score last week against Western Carolina.

Chattanooga’s average turnover margin (0.89) is 13th in FCS (The Citadel’s is 60th). The national leader in that category is North Dakota State, with a rather astounding per-game turnover margin of 1.60. NDSU has only committed two turnovers all season (in ten games).

– One defensive issue for the Mocs has been its work in the red zone, where UTC allows TDs at a 63.3% clip, with an estimated points per RZ possession of 5.19 (87th nationally). The Bulldogs’ D is 42nd in FCS (4.64, with a RZ TD rate of 60.7%). 

– The Citadel is 7th in FCS in net punting (42.05), while Chattanooga is 55th (37.39).

—

A few paragraphs ago, I mentioned that Chattanooga had played last week against Western Carolina with its backup quarterback. Starting QB Chase Artopoeus missed that game with an undisclosed injury. 

The backup, redshirt sophomore Luke Schomburg, is also expected to start against The Citadel, with that announcement made by Rusty Wright at his weekly presser.

Schomburg’s line against WCU doesn’t look great on the surface (14-31 passing, with 3 interceptions), but in all honesty it wasn’t a bad performance at all. He averaged over 10 yards per attempt and completed passes to seven different receivers, with a couple of touchdowns. A late pick proved costly in the 38-34 defeat in Cullowhee.

He has previous experience as a starter, getting the call for Chattanooga’s final three games last season after Artopoeus suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. Schomburg’s starts in 2023: at Alabama, at Austin Peay in the FCS playoffs, at Furman in the FCS playoffs. That’s a tough draw.

In the victory over Austin Peay, Schomburg was 21-36 for 259 yards and a TD (with one pick), leading the Mocs to their first-ever road FCS playoff victory.

—

When is comes to referencing Chattanooga’s athletic teams, nomenclature matters. (It matters at The Citadel too, of course.) From the school’s game notes comes this reminder:

The official school name is the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga. The NCAA short form for it is simply Chattanooga. There are no hyphenated uses such as Tennessee-Chattanooga or UT-Chattanooga or even gasp, UT Chattanooga without the hyphen. Nope, just Chattanooga. Nickname is Mocs. It is not short for anything.

—

This will be a tough test for The Citadel. The Mocs have a lot of talent, with big-play threats on both sides of the ball. Time of possession could be critical for the Bulldogs, as limiting the total number of possessions in this game would be a good idea for the home side.

If The Citadel plays as well defensively as it did against Samford two weeks ago, it will have a shot at a third consecutive victory. However, the offense must be more consistent, and put together two good halves, not just one. It is also imperative to avoid turnovers against a ball-hawking Chattanooga defense.

There should be a very good crowd for Homecoming; a sellout is anticipated. The weather should be excellent, with a forecast of 76 degrees and mostly sunny skies. I’m looking forward to a fun atmosphere and a classic November afternoon at Johnson Hagood Stadium.

Filed under: Football, The Citadel | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

The Citadel Football: 2023 SoCon play begins

Posted on September 14, 2023 by Sandlapper Spike

The Citadel at Chattanooga, to be played at Finley Stadium/Davenport Field in Chattanooga, Tennessee, with kickoff at 6:00 pm ET on September 16, 2023.

The game will be televised via Nexstar and streamed on ESPN+. Pete Yanity will handle play-by-play, while Jay Sonnhalter supplies the analysis.

According to the SoCon’s website:

Nexstar affiliates with the opportunity to air games are: ECBD (Charleston), WMYT (Charlotte), WWCW (Lynchburg/Roanoke) and WYCW (Greenville/Spartanburg/Asheville). Although not a Nexstar station, WMUB (Macon), Mercer University Broadcasting, will also air select contests.

That doesn’t necessarily mean all of those stations will be televising Saturday’s matchup.

The contest can be heard on radio via The Citadel Sports Network. WQNT-1450 AM [audio link], originating in Charleston, will be the flagship station. Other stations carrying the game include WQXL in Columbia (100.7 FM/1470 AM) and WDXY in Sumter (105.9 FM/1240 AM).

Brian Giffin will call the action alongside analyst Lee Glaze. 

—

Links of interest:

– SoCon weekly release

– Chattanooga game notes

– The Citadel game notes

– Maurice Drayton’s Monday press conference

– Things to avoid, per the coach: Self-Inflicted Negatives

– Box score for Campbell-The Citadel

– Rusty Wright’s press conference (video does not seem to work in all browsers; I managed to get it to work in Firefox)

– Box score for Kennesaw State-Chattanooga (won by UTC, 27-20)

– Box score for Chattanooga-North Alabama (a 41-27 loss for the Mocs)

– Season statistics for Chattanooga (two games)

—

Roster review:

– Of the 110 players on The Citadel’s online roster as of September 14, 58 are from South Carolina. Other states represented: Florida (14 players), Georgia (11), North Carolina (11), Virginia (5), Alabama (2), Ohio (2), New York (2), Texas (2), and one each from Maryland, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

– Chattanooga has 103 players on its online roster. Of those, 35 are from Georgia, and 34 are from Tennessee. Other states represented on the Mocs’ squad: Alabama (14 players), Pennsylvania (4), Ohio (3), South Carolina (3), Florida (2), and one each from Arizona, California, Illinois, Mississippi, New Jersey, North Carolina, and Virginia.

Freshman offensive tackle Lukas Majer is from Cologne, Germany. He played high school football in Rabun Gap, Georgia.

– The Mocs have three players who hail from the Palmetto State, as noted. Star running back Ailym Ford went to West Florence High School. Redshirt freshman defensive lineman Ky Tayo (a transfer from Georgia Southern) graduated from Spring Valley High School in Columbia, while punter Clayton Crile (a grad transfer from Catawba) went to Byrnes High School in Duncan.

There are no Mocs who wore the famed maroon and orange of Orangeburg-Wilkinson High School, unquestionably a key reason why Chattanooga has been unable to capture the SoCon title in recent years. The absence of such players, with their innate gridiron knowledge and superior clutch performance, has been an obvious detriment to Chattanooga’s program.

– Chattanooga has one player who transferred in directly from junior college and 37 players who arrived via other four-year institutions, including “power five” schools Alabama, Auburn, Cincinnati, Florida, Georgia Tech, Houston, Indiana (two players), Louisville, Purdue, Tennessee, UCLA, Virginia Tech, and Washington State.

In its game versus Kennesaw State, five of those P5 transfers started, including quarterback Chase Artopoeus (a grad transfer from UCLA) and three of the Mocs’ offensive linemen.

—

Through two games, UTC’s offensive play-calling has been almost perfectly balanced between the run and the pass (73 rushes, 74 pass attempts). However, almost two-thirds (66.2%) of Chattanooga’s total offense has come via the air. 

The Mocs are averaging 6.03 yards per play, including 7.93 yards per pass attempt and 4.11 yards per rush. Chattanooga has not yet allowed a sack.

Opponents are averaging 6.96 yards per play versus the Mocs’ defense — 8.14 yards per pass attempt and 6.02 via the rush (all numbers sack-adjusted). North Alabama and Kennesaw State gained 56.2% of their total yards by passing.

—

Rusty Wright’s press conference (linked above) included a question about the future of college football. His answer — which began with a long sigh — was realistic and sensible. It starts around the 12-minute mark of the video.

—

Odds and ends:

– The weather forecast for Saturday in Chattanooga, per the National Weather Service, includes a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms. It will be partly sunny, with a high near 81°. There is a 40% chance of showers on Saturday night.

– If I get a line on the game before noon on Saturday, I’ll post it here. However, FCS odds and lines have been very hard to come by so far this year.

– Massey Ratings: Chattanooga is ranked 46th in FCS, moving up 3 spots from last week. The Citadel is 94th (a 28-place drop).

Massey projects Chattanooga to win the game by a predicted score of 35-14. The Bulldogs are given a 9% chance of winning. 

– SP+ FCS rankings: The Citadel is 109th out of 128 teams, falling 39 spots, the largest drop of the week in the entire subdivision. The Bulldogs are ranked 108th in offensive SP+, and 82nd in defensive SP+.

Chattanooga is 31st in SP+ among FCS squads, 37th on offense and 30th on D.

A selected list of SP+ FCS rankings entering Week 3:

  • North Dakota State (1st)
  • South Dakota State (2nd)
  • Montana State (3rd)
  • William and Mary (8th)
  • Furman (12th)
  • Samford (25th)
  • Campbell (26th)
  • Mercer (30th)
  • Western Carolina (43rd)
  • Kennesaw State (50th)
  • East Tennessee State (51st)
  • Eastern Kentucky (52nd)
  • Austin Peay (54th)
  • Davidson (66th)
  • Wofford (79th)
  • Charleston Southern (85th)
  • VMI (90th)
  • Bucknell (108th)
  • South Carolina State (121st)
  • Morehead State (125th)
  • Presbyterian (128th and last)

– In other FCS preseason polls/rankings, The Citadel ranks 107th in the Congrove Computer Rankings (a drop of 28 spots), 98th in the Laz Index (a decline of 20 places), and 100th in the DCI (down 14 spots).

– Games involving SoCon teams this week [projected score per SP+ in brackets]:

  • Saturday at 2:00 pm ET: VMI at North Carolina State [NCSU 43, VMI 0]
  • Saturday at 5:00 pm ET: Furman at Kennesaw State [Furman 33.6, Kenn. St. 21.7]
  • Saturday at 6:00 pm ET: Western Carolina at Eastern Kentucky [EKU 30.3, WCU 30.0]
  • Saturday at 6:00 pm ET: The Citadel at Chattanooga [UTC 36.5, The Citadel 11.8]
  • Saturday at 6:00 pm ET: Presbyterian at Wofford [Wofford 37.2, PC 12.0]
  • Saturday at 7:00 pm ET: East Tennessee State at Austin Peay [APSU 28.9, ETSU 28.6]
  • Saturday at 7:30 pm ET: Samford at Auburn [Auburn 42, Samford 9]

Mercer is off this week. So is South Carolina State, The Citadel’s opponent next week.

– Among Chattanooga’s notable alumni: actor Dennis “Mr. Belding” Haskins, retired general Burwell Bell, and chemist Irvine Grote.

– The Citadel has an all-time record of 5-4 for games played on September 16. The Bulldogs are 2-3 away from home. 

The Citadel is 4-0 in SoCon play on September 16, including the most recent game played by the Bulldogs on that date, a 31-25 win at East Tennessee State in 2017. The other victory for The Citadel on September 16 was a 56-0 triumph over the Parris Island Marines in 1950.

—

You will notice I haven’t really said anything about the game at Johnson Hagood Stadium last Saturday. That is because the action on the field spoke for itself.

I wasn’t completely surprised by the fact the Bulldogs struggled, but I did not fully anticipate how vast the gulf in talent was between the two teams. 

There will probably be more games like that this season, even assuming improvement. After all, opposing teams will also have a chance to get better. That said, I would like to think The Citadel isn’t going to lose by seven touchdowns every week, particularly in conference play.  

On the surface, this week could be similar to the first two games of the season. The opponent appears to have considerably more talent, and The Citadel is still trying to work out new offensive and defensive systems under a first-year coaching staff.

There are things the Bulldogs can control, however. They can tackle better (a noticeable failing against Campbell). They can avoid committing dumb penalties, such as the unsportsmanlike conduct foul that torpedoed the drive following The Citadel’s touchdown. They can be more careful with the football, and not put it on the ground during the QB/RB exchange.

That is primarily what I am looking for this week (although a win would also be very nice).

Filed under: Football, The Citadel | Tagged: , , , | 1 Comment »

College Football Week 12, 2021: Thursday notes and observations

Posted on November 18, 2021 by Sandlapper Spike

– The Citadel’s game notes

– Brent Thompson’s weekly press conference

– Chattanooga’s game notes

– Chattanooga’s weekly press conference (featuring head coach Rusty Wright and two players)

– SoCon weekly release

—

Broadcast information

The Citadel at Chattanooga, to be played at Finley Stadium – Davenport Field in Chattanooga, Tennessee, with kickoff at 1:30 pm ET on November 20, 2021.

The game will be streamed on ESPN+. Play-by-play will be handled by Chris Goforth, while Scott McMahen supplies the analysis. Dave Keylon is the sideline reporter.

The contest can be heard on radio via The Citadel Sports Network. WQNT-1450 AM [audio link], originating in Charleston, will be the flagship station. Other stations carrying the game include WQXL in Columbia (100.7 FM/1470 AM) and WDXY in Sumter (105.9 FM/1240 AM).

Luke Mauro (the “Voice of the Bulldogs”) calls the action alongside analyst Lee Glaze.

– “Live Stats” for the game

—

Here is my weekly compilation spreadsheet of FCS stats:

FCS statistics through games of November 13, 2021

I did not have time this week to further summarize the stats (top 5/bottom 5, matchup comparisons, etc.). Apologies for anyone interested, but I’ve been rather busy this week, which is why there wasn’t an earlier post.

Statistically speaking, Chattanooga generally fares well across the board, particularly in defensive categories. The Mocs are 11th in points allowed per game in FCS, and fourth in estimated points per Red Zone possession. Chattanooga is also second nationally in interceptions per opponents’ passes, behind only St. Thomas; Chattanooga has picked off a pass every 17.87 opponent attempts this season.

UTC is 4th in FCS in time of possession (averaging 33:29 TOP per game). This is in keeping with the Mocs’ general pace on offense (Chattanooga is also 4th in seconds per offensive play). 

On the whole, I would describe Chattanooga as being rather conservative on offense. The “go rate” for the Mocs is 4th-lowest in FCS; only Eastern Kentucky and Montana State have fewer fourth down attempts.

Chattanooga is 15th in run percentage (60.2% of its offensive plays are rushes).

—

Roster review:

–  Of the 112 players on The Citadel’s online roster, 61 are from South Carolina. Other states represented: Georgia (18 players), Florida (11), North Carolina (9), Virginia (4), Alabama (2), Texas (2), and one each from New York, Oklahoma, Ohio, and Tennessee.

Tight end Hayden Williamson played his high school football in Okinawa, Japan.

—

– There are 94 players on Chattanooga’s roster. Of those, 32 are from Georgia, while another 30 are from Tennessee. The remaining players are from the following states: Alabama (13), Florida (4), South Carolina (4), North Carolina (2), Ohio (2), and one each from Arizona, Indiana, Mississippi, Texas, and Virginia.

Long snapper Bryce Coulson is from Brisbane, Australia, while wide receiver Jahmar Quandt is a native of St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands.

– The Mocs’ squad includes players who transferred from the following four-year institutions and junior colleges: Appalachian State, Arkansas State, Austin Peay, Bethel, Cincinnati (2), East Mississippi CC, Eastern Illinois, Georgia Military, Hutchinson CC, Jacksonville State, Lafayette, Louisville (2), Mercer, Middle Tennessee State, Minot State, Mississippi State, Naropa, North Dakota State, Northern Illinois, Old Dominion, Purdue, Rhode Island, South Carolina (2), Tennessee Tech (2), and Western Kentucky (4).

—

As has been the case over the latter part of the season, FCS spreads and totals are not readily available. There are some lines out there, and I’ll list those involving SoCon teams here:

  • Wofford is a 38Âœ-point underdog at North Carolina
  • VMI is a 10Âœ-point favorite over Western Carolina
  • Samford is a 2Âœ-point favorite over Furman
  • East Tennessee State is a 4Âœ-point favorite over Mercer
  • Chattanooga is a 23Âœ-point favorite over The Citadel

—

Finally, here are this week’s numbers from my projection system, which as I’ve mentioned before is very much a work in progress. I’m not quite sure how much progress I’ve really made, to be honest.

At any rate, here is what the system has to say about this week’s FCS games (including four of the games listed above; I don’t run numbers for FCS contests against teams from outside the subdivision).

 

Road team Home team Road tm score Home tm score
Nicholls State SE Louisiana 29.9 36.6
Butler Marist 16.8 34.8
Dartmouth Brown 41.2 19.6
Harvard Yale 24.7 20.6
Lafayette Lehigh 20.7 17.7
Georgetown Morgan State 24.6 22.5
Campbell Robert Morris 29.9 24.8
Duquesne Wagner 34.6 15.5
St. Francis PA Central Conn. State 24.9 21.0
Western Carolina VMI 30.6 41.6
Sacred Heart Long Island 29 13.1
Fordham Colgate 32.9 23.9
San Diego Stetson 35.3 22.1
Columbia Cornell 26.1 22.4
Bryant Merrimack 27.1 23.9
Murray State Eastern Illinois 27.5 19.7
Holy Cross Bucknell 39.9 8.9
Indiana State Illinois State 17.7 26.4
Princeton Penn 27.7 16.7
Youngstown State Southern Illinois 22.7 40.8
Maine New Hampshire 27.0 21.6
Villanova Delaware 30.6 14.2
Albany Stony Brook 19.6 23.5
Furman Samford 34.2 36.0
Northwestern State McNeese State 15.9 35.2
Gardner-Webb North Carolina A&T 22.2 30.6
Monmouth Kennesaw State 25.3 26.2
North Alabama Hampton 30.2 29.1
Drake Davidson 17.0 30.3
Mercer ETSU 23.0 27.7
The Citadel Chattanooga 13.8 36.1
UT Martin SE Missouri State 32.3 23.1
Sam Houston State Abilene Christian 40.5 17.3
Presbyterian St. Thomas 27.3 46.8
Morehead State Valparaiso 27.6 30.9
South Carolina State Norfolk State 28.1 27.6
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Alabama A&M 27.0 40.0
Montana State Montana 21.0 22.5
Jacksonville State Eastern Kentucky 23.3 26.7
Rhode Island Elon 23.6 25.4
Alcorn State Jackson State 17.3 28.9
Delaware State NC Central 22.0 24.4
Western Illinois Northern Iowa 18.6 35.8
Towson James Madison 13.2 37
Texas Southern Alabama State 29.3 33.3
Tennessee Tech Austin Peay 15.9 36.5
Incarnate Word Houston Baptist 46.7 20.2
Northern Colorado Weber State 10.4 33.8
Idaho Idaho State 29.7 25.9
North Dakota South Dakota State 18.9 29.8
South Dakota North Dakota State 17.4 27.3
Florida A&M Bethune-Cookman 32.2 18.7
Richmond William and Mary 22.3 21.5
Eastern Washington Portland State 41.8 26.9
Stephen F. Austin Lamar 36.3 13.2
Central Arkansas Tarleton State 34.6 25.8
Northern Arizona Cal Poly 32.0 24.3
Sacramento State UC Davis 26.0 24.8
Missouri State Dixie State 41.5 16.7

Note: the game between Florida A&M and Bethune-Cookman is actually a neutral-site contest taking place in Orlando.

—

In terms of posts, this will probably be it from me for a couple of weeks or so. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.

Filed under: Football, The Citadel | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a comment »

Looking at the numbers, 2021 preseason: returning starters in the SoCon

Posted on July 31, 2021 by Sandlapper Spike

Other preseason posts from July:

—

One of the major storylines for the upcoming football season is the large number of experienced gridders who are returning to college this fall. The “free year” that was the F20/S21 school year has led to a glut of so-called “superseniors”, players in their sixth years (or fifth-year players who haven’t redshirted).

As a result of the extra year being granted, Clemson has at least two players (linebacker James Skalski and punter Will Spiers) who could conceivably play in 70 games during their college careers. That is just a ludicrous number of games for a college football player, but we live in ludicrous times.

Illinois has 22 superseniors, most in the country (the Illini also have 18 “regular” seniors). In February, the AP reported that over 1,000 superseniors were on FBS rosters, a number that has probably declined since then, but still obviously significant.

Information on FCS programs is sketchier, but there was a recent report confirming that Southern Illinois has 16 superseniors, which has to be close to the most in the subdivision, if not the most. Between Illinois and SIU, there are a lot of veteran pigskin collegians in the Land of Lincoln.

Incidentally, one of Southern Illinois’ superseniors is former Western Carolina running back Donnavan Spencer, who transferred from Cullowhee to Carbondale for the fall 2021 campaign.

All of this is reflected in sizeable “returning starters” lists among a lot of teams throughout the sport, including both the FBS and FCS. As an example, here are some numbers from the ACC and SEC, per Phil Steele’s 2021 College Football Preview:

  • Wake Forest: 20 returning starters (but with tough injury news over the last week)
  • North Carolina State: 19
  • Miami: 19 (and only lost 9 out of 70 lettermen)
  • Syracuse: 19
  • Arkansas: 19
  • North Carolina: 18
  • LSU: 18 (hopefully some of them will play pass defense this season)
  • Florida State: 17 (joined by a bunch of D-1 transfers)
  • Boston College: 17
  • Georgia Tech: 17
  • Vanderbilt: 17 (possibly not a positive)
  • Mississippi: 17

The team in those two leagues with the fewest returning starters is Alabama, with 11. Of course, the Tide had six players from last season’s squad picked in the first round of the NFL draft, so a bit of turnover in Tuscaloosa was inevitable. I suspect Nick Saban isn’t too worried about replacing them.

—

The returning production totals are unprecedented at the FBS level.

The top 10 includes several very interesting teams, including Louisiana-Lafayette, Arizona State, Nevada, and UCLA. It is somewhat incredible that Coastal Carolina has a returning production rate of 89% and doesn’t even crack the top 15.

Some of the teams at the bottom of this ranking are national powers that reload every year. Alabama was already mentioned, but the same is true for Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Florida.

BYU and Northwestern also had outstanding seasons last year (and combined for three first-round draft picks). The story wasn’t the same for Duke and South Carolina, however.

—

Okay, now time to talk about the SoCon. Who in the league is coming back this fall? An easier question to answer would be: who isn’t?

SoCon returning starters, Fall 2021

The spreadsheet linked above has 12 categories. A quick explanation of each:

  • F20/S21 Games Played: total number of games played by a team during the 2020-21 school year, both in the fall (F20) and the spring (S21)
  • F20/S21 Participants: the number of players who suited up during 2020-21
  • F20/S21 Starters: the number of different starters during 2020-21
  • F20/S21 Returning Participants: the number of returnees who played during 2020-21
  • F20/S21 Returning Starters: the number of returning starters from 2020-21
  • F20/S21 Returning Starters 2+: the number of returnees from 2020-21 who started at least two games
  • Spring 2021: total number of games played by a team in the spring (all conference games, except for VMI’s playoff matchup)
  • Spring 2021 Participants: the number of players who took the field during the spring
  • Spring 2021 Starters: the number of different starters during the spring
  • Spring Returning Participants: the number of returnees who played in the spring
  • Spring Returning Starters: the number of returning starters from the spring
  • Spring Returning Starters 2+: the number of returnees who started at least two games during the spring

Most of that needs no explanation. The idea of including a category for multiple starts was inspired by Chattanooga’s game against Mercer, when the Mocs fielded what was essentially a “B” team. UTC had 19 players who started that game, but did not start in any of Chattanooga’s other three spring contests.

There are a few players who started one game in the spring, but also started at least one game in the fall. They are listed as having started multiple games for F20/S21, of course, but not for the spring.

The list of starters does not include special teams players. Some programs list specialists as starters, but they generally are not treated as such from a statistical point of view, and for the sake of consistency I am only listing offensive and defensive starters.

Returnee stats are based on each school’s online football roster as of July 26 (the league’s Media Day). 

Players on current rosters who did not start in F20/S21, but who did start games in 2019, are not included as returning starters. There are two players from The Citadel who fit this description; undoubtedly there are a few others in the conference.

I also did not count any incoming transfers with prior starting experience. That is simply another piece to a team’s roster puzzle.

There is no doubt that transfers will have a major impact on the fall 2021 season. For example, Western Carolina has 15 players on its roster who arrived from junior colleges or other four-year schools following the spring 2021 campaign (the Catamounts have 26 transfers in all).

Five of the nine SoCon schools did not play in the fall. Thus, their overall numbers are the same as their spring totals (and are noted as such on the spreadsheet).

—

As I’ve said before, when it comes to the veracity of the game summaries, I think the athletic media relations folks at the SoCon schools did quite well for the most part, especially when considering how difficult staffing must have been at times during the spring. There were a few miscues, and in terms of data input, the participation charts seemed to cause the most problems.

Did Mercer start a game with no offensive linemen? Uh, no. Was a backup quarterback a defensive starter for Chattanooga? Nope. In three different contests, did Furman take the field after the opening kickoff with only 10 players? It did not.

There was also a scattering of double-counted players, usually a result of misspellings or changes in jersey numbers. Hey, it happens.

Ultimately, I am fairly confident in the general accuracy of the numbers in the spreadsheet linked above, particularly the categories for starters. The totals for participants should also be largely correct, although I will say that it is harder to find (and correct) errors in online participation charts for participants than it is starters. That is because the players who tend to be occasionally omitted from the charts are special teams performers and backup offensive linemen — in other words, non-starters who do not accumulate standard statistics.

—

According to the SoCon’s fall prospectus, 553 of the 636 players who lettered in F20/S21 are playing this fall (86.9%). That tracks with my numbers, with 83.2% of all participants returning (573 of 689). I did find one player listed as a returnee in the prospectus who is not on his school’s online roster; it is possible there are one or two more such cases.

Samford had by far the most participants, with 95 (in seven contests). Of that group, however, 24 only appeared in one game during the spring. The number of multiple-game participants for SU is more in line with some of the other spring-only teams, such as Furman; the Paladins also played seven games, with 71 participants, 64 of whom played in at least two games.

Having said that, kudos to Samford for being able to maintain a roster that large this spring. That is a credit to its coaching and support staff.

Mercer, which played three games in the fall and eight in the spring, has the most returnees that started multiple games, with 37. There are 25 Bears who are returning after making at least two spring starts.

The Citadel has the most players returning who had 2+ starts in the spring, with 28. Wofford has the fewest (19), not a huge surprise given the Terriers only played in five games.

Chattanooga and East Tennessee State combine to return 122 out of 128 players who participated in the spring season. Those returnees include 75 players who started at least one spring game.

Conference teams average 30.44 returning starters from the spring. No squad has fewer than 25.

—

For the SoCon, I’m not really capable of fully replicating the formula Bill Connelly uses for his FBS returning production rates; I lack access to some of the necessary data. Therefore, I am just going to list some of the (very limited) spots throughout the conference in which teams will have to replace key performers from the spring. I realize that is more anecdotal in nature than the rest of this post.

  • Furman must replace three starters on its offensive line, including the versatile Reed Kroeber (41 career starts for the Paladins). FU also loses first-team all-SoCon free safety Darius Kearse.
  • Wofford has to replace its second-leading rusher from the spring (Ryan Lovelace), and players who accounted for 61% of the Terriers’ receiving production.
  • VMI loses three defensive stalwarts who were second-team all-conference selections; one of them, lineman Jordan Ward, will be a graduate transfer at Ball State this fall.
  • The Keydets will also miss Reece Udinski, who transferred to Maryland (as was announced before the spring campaign even began). However, Seth Morgan certainly filled in at QB with aplomb after Udinski suffered a season-ending injury.
  • Mercer must replace leading rusher Deondre Johnson, a second-team all-league pick.
  • Samford placekicker Mitchell Fineran, an all-SoCon performer who led the conference in scoring, graduated and transferred to Purdue. He is the only regular placekicker or punter in the conference from the spring not to return for the fall.
  • I mentioned earlier that Western Carolina running back Donnavan Spencer (a first-team all-conference choice) transferred to Southern Illinois. The Catamounts also lost another first-team all-league player, center Isaiah Helms, a sophomore who transferred to Appalachian State. That has to sting a bit in Cullowhee. 
  • WCU’s starting quarterback last spring, Ryan Glover, transferred to California (his third school; he started his collegiate career at Penn). Glover and VMI’s Udinski are the only league players to start multiple games at quarterback this spring who are not returning this fall.
  • Western Carolina defensive tackle Roman Johnson is listed on the Catamounts’ online roster, but also reportedly entered the transfer portal (for a second time) in mid-July. I am including him as a returning starter for now, but there is clearly a lot of uncertainty as to his status.
  • The Citadel must replace starting right tackle Thomas Crawford (the only spring starter for the Bulldogs who is not returning).
  • A few players who appeared in fall 2020 action but not in the spring eventually found their way to FBS-land. Chattanooga wide receiver Bryce Nunnelly, a two-time first team all-SoCon selection during his time with the Mocs, will play at Western Michigan this season. Mercer wideout Steven Peterson, who originally matriculated at Coastal Carolina before moving to Macon, is now at Georgia. Strong safety Sean-Thomas Faulkner of The Citadel will wear the mean green of North Texas this fall.

—

Odds and ends:

  • Of the 51 players on the media’s all-SoCon teams (first and second), 42 will return this fall. 
  • One of those returnees is ETSU linebacker Jared Folks, who will be an eighth-year collegian this season (the only one in D-1). Folks started his college career at Temple in 2014 — the same year in which Patrick Mahomes debuted for Texas Tech.
  • Robert Riddle, the former Mercer quarterback who did not appear in F20/S21, is now at Chattanooga. Riddle made nine starts for the Bears over two seasons, but his time in the program was ravaged by injuries.
  • Chris Oladokun, who started Samford’s spring opener at QB, transferred to South Dakota State. Oladokun began his college days at South Florida before moving to Birmingham, where he started eight games for SU in 2019. His brother Jordan will be a freshman defensive back at Samford this fall.

—

So, to sum up: every team has lots of players back, which means (almost) every team’s fans expects the upcoming season for their respective squads to be truly outstanding. College football games this year will all take place in Lake Wobegon, because everyone will be above average.

Filed under: Football, The Citadel | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

2021 Spring Football, Game 2: The Citadel vs. Chattanooga

Posted on March 4, 2021 by Sandlapper Spike

The Citadel vs. Chattanooga, to be played at historic Johnson Hagood Stadium, with kickoff at 1:00 pm ET on March 6, 2021.

The game will be streamed on ESPN+. Dave Weinstein will handle play-by-play, while Jason Kempf supplies the analysis.

The contest can be heard on radio via The Citadel Sports Network. WQNT-1450 AM [audio link], originating in Charleston, will be the flagship station. 

Luke Mauro (the “Voice of the Bulldogs”) calls the action alongside analyst Lee Glaze. 

—

Links of interest:

– Cooper Wallace is fast

– Ken Feaster, trailblazer

– Game notes from The Citadel and Chattanooga

– SoCon weekly release

– Preview on The Citadel’s website

– Preview on Chattanooga’s website

– The Citadel’s home attendance policies for spring football

– The Citadel releases its fall 2021 schedule

– Chattanooga head coach Rusty Wright’s 3/2 press conference

– Takeaways from Chattanooga’s victory over the Terriers

– Mocs didn’t have to test depth to handle Wofford

– Wofford-Chattanooga video highlights

– Chattanooga’s offensive line has experience

– “Live Stats” online platform

—

I posted links to game notes for The Citadel and Chattanooga above, along with the SoCon’s weekly release. For anyone interested, here are links to this week’s game notes for the other league schools playing:

—

“Is [the real Bulldogs team] the one that surrendered 28 unanswered points to Mercer in the first half? Or the one that twice stormed back to within one possession in the second half?”

Brent Thompson:

I think it’s the second-half team. I told the guys at the end of the game that what they showed inside of them was what I was most concerned about. You can fix mistakes, but you can’t always build heart and determination into a football team, and we showed some heart in the second half.

The Bulldogs did show some moxie in the second half, and that was good to see. Not every team that fell behind in a game last Saturday showed quite as much determination.

The Citadel is not about moral victories, however (particularly in league play). While the second half gave fans some hope for the rest of the spring season, the first-half performance was not acceptable.

Mercer scored touchdowns on three of its five first-half possessions, averaging 9.7 yards per play on offense. Meanwhile, on six first-half drives the Bulldogs’ offense averaged 2.2 yards per play and gave up a defensive touchdown on a bad pitch.

The second half was definitely a lot better, and something The Citadel can use as a building block. Not counting the end-of-game possession, Mercer’s offense had five drives and went three-and-out on four of them. (The next-to-last drive, a seven-play TD march, was a disappointing outlier.)

The Bulldogs were much better offensively in the second half, which featured several big plays, something that has occasionally been missing from The Citadel’s offensive attack in the last couple of seasons. The Bulldogs had five plays from scrimmage of 20+ yards in the second half, highlighted by Cooper Wallace’s 73-yard TD run. However, the offense also turned the ball over twice in the fourth quarter.

It is hard to win any game — much less one in which you trail 28-0 at halftime — when you lose the turnover battle 3-0.

Those big plays, however, hold promise for the future. They arguably demonstrate what Jaylan Adams can bring to the table as the Bulldogs’ quarterback.

The Citadel is obviously going to have to work on pitch plays, and there are other issues that need to be fixed, but the potential is there for the Bulldogs to have a high-octane offense. It just has to avoid self-destructing.

Defensively, my main takeaway was that The Citadel needs to do a better job of tackling. The second half was an improvement in that respect. Pass coverage is something that will require some fine-tuning as well.

—

Participation report:

The Citadel had 40 players participate in last Saturday’s contest; Mercer had 48. Six of the Bulldogs who played are “true” freshmen.

Chattanooga had 44 players see action in its game versus Wofford. The Terriers fielded 55 players (which is more than I would have expected, given some of Wofford’s roster issues).

—

Updated career points scored by Bulldogs on the active spring roster:

—

The Citadel’s listed depth chart for its matchup with Chattanooga, by class. (There was no change in the two-deep from the Mercer game.)

  • Freshmen: 9
  • Redshirt freshmen: 8
  • Sophomores: 2
  • Redshirt sophomores: 12
  • Juniors: 11
  • Redshirt juniors: 5
  • Seniors: 2
  • Redshirt seniors: 0
  • Graduate students: 2

—

I saw this note while perusing The Citadel’s online game preview:

The Bulldogs scored 28 points in the second half against Mercer. It was the most points in a second half since putting up 35 points in the second half against Samford in 2018.

Ah, Samford 2018. Now that was a game…

—

Traditional paragraph devoted to nomenclature for the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga:

On first reference, it is acceptable to refer to us as the “University of Tennessee at Chattanooga.” After that, we prefer to be called “Chattanooga” or
“UTC.” Our nickname is “Mocs”.

That blurb is from Chattanooga’s game notes. It works for me (notice that the school nickname is definitely not “Moccasins”).

—

Here is a breakdown of Chattanooga’s listed depth chart for the game versus The Citadel, by class. UTC is an “old” team, relatively speaking.

Chattanooga, probably because of the number of transfers on its roster, does not list its players in the same way as The Citadel (or Mercer, for that matter). I’ve gone through the two-deep to determine class standing, but it is not necessarily an exact comparison.

  • Freshmen: 7
  • Redshirt Freshmen: 4
  • Sophomores: 2
  • Redshirt sophomores: 7
  • Juniors: 4
  • Redshirt juniors: 8
  • Seniors: 2
  • Redshirt seniors: 10
  • Graduate students (5th year): 1
  • Graduate students (6th year): 2

Clearly, it is safe to assume that some of the redshirt seniors have already graduated, but I listed three players separately as graduate students. One is a grad transfer in his first year in the program (and fifth since entering college), long snapper Bryce Coulson. Another is a grad transfer in his first year in the program — but his sixth since entering college — LB/DE Montez Wilson.

Then there is starting left tackle Harrison Moon, who spent three seasons at Mississippi State (one year as a redshirt) before transferring to Chattanooga in 2018. Moon received a medical redshirt for the 2019 season, and thus is also a sixth-year player.

If you count spring 2021 separately from fall 2020, Wilson and Moon are actually participating in their seventh seasons of college football. Both entered college in 2015.

—

Chattanooga’s roster includes 27 players who transferred into the program from four-year colleges; 23 of them are currently eligible to compete for the Mocs. There are also three junior college products.

Those transfers from four-year schools began their college careers at the following institutions: Appalachian State, Arkansas State, Austin Peay, Bethel, Cincinnati (two players), Eastern Illinois, Lafayette, Jacksonville State, Louisville (two players), Minot State, Mississippi State, Middle Tennessee State, Northern Illinois, Old Dominion, Purdue, Rhode Island, South Carolina (two players), Tennessee Tech (two players), ULM, Western Kentucky (three players), and Western Michigan.

Transfers have been important for UTC in sustaining its program (and that has been true for a long time, not just during Rusty Wright’s brief tenure as head coach). Fifteen of the four-year school transfers are on the Mocs’ two-deep, as are two of the three JuCos. Eleven of those seventeen players are starters.

—

It occurs to me that someone reading this might get the wrong idea about why I’ve written about Chattanooga’s transfers. I do so because I’m interested in how programs construct rosters, from a geographical perspective as well as high school recruit/transfer comparisons, and in terms of class numbers.

As I wrote in 2018 (slightly edited):

It shouldn’t matter to its opponents how many transfers Chattanooga has on its roster, as long as they are students in good standing.

Sometimes fans get huffy about this topic, especially when they support schools for which transfers are somewhat unusual, if not rare. It isn’t a good idea to get all high and mighty about this, however, because a sense of righteousness doesn’t really mesh well with intercollegiate gridiron activity.

After all, we’re not talking about a morality play. We’re talking about football.

Now, you could argue that league schools should more or less recruit in a similar fashion, and that isn’t necessarily a bad position to take — except that we’re talking about the Southern Conference. This is a league with a 100-year history of being a mixing bowl of disparate institutions, including the current setup (public and private schools, military colleges, a school without a football program, etc.).

These schools have vastly different missions. Being a member of the SoCon means accepting that fact, getting on the bus, and going to the next game.

—

Rusty Wright on Chattanooga’s issues with trying to prepare for its spring opener:

We didn’t even cover a live kick until Saturday [against Wofford]. I mean, you talk about holding your breath.

It took UTC’s defense about a quarter to get warmed up against the Terriers, but after that Chattanooga’s D was solid. After Wofford scored on a 12-play, 71-yard drive to open the game, the Mocs did not allow another touchdown in seven possessions by the Terriers (two brief end-of-half drives are not included in that grouping).

Three of those seven Wofford drives were three-and-outs (one was technically a four-and-out). Another was a five-play possession that resulted in an interception by the Mocs. Wofford averaged only 4.3 yards per play on those seven possessions.

Another statistic of consequence: against Mercer, Wofford averaged 9.1 yards per pass attempt (sack-adjusted). Chattanooga held the Terriers to 2.2 yards per pass attempt.

Middle linebacker Kam Jones and strong safety Brandon Dowdell combined for 20 tackles. Dowdell, an outstanding player who has twice been selected first-team all-conference, also had a pick. Dowdell serves as UTC’s primary punt and kick returner, too.

—

Chattanooga’s offense wasn’t necessarily spectacular, but it was consistent, and that was good enough. Drayton Arnold had a fine day at quarterback. He was composed, seemingly never in a hurry, in part because of a good performance from Chattanooga’s experienced offensive line (which allowed one sack on 26 pass plays).

Arnold averaged 8.1 yards per pass attempt, including a TD, and was not intercepted. One of the more important plays in the early part of the game was a pinpoint downfield pass from Arnold to Andrew Manning, a 30-yard completion on a 3rd-and-13 that set up UTC’s first touchdown.

Mocs wideout Reginald Henderson was very impressive. He had seven receptions for 102 yards, and narrowly missed out on a couple of would-be TD catches (the second of which would have been spectacular if his foot had not been just out of bounds).

UTC took advantage of its opportunities, especially after what might have been the key play in the game, a muffed punt by Wofford late in the first half. The Mocs converted that mistake into a go-ahead TD.

Chattanooga did not run the ball all that effectively, averaging only 3.1 yards per carry, but UTC’s running backs picked up tough yards when it mattered (seven first downs via the rush and two rushing TDs).

Note: Besides adjusting for sack yardage, I also did not include in the Mocs’ rushing totals a 23-yard loss on a botched punt late in the game. That was also Chattanooga’s only real miscue in the contest (UTC did not commit a turnover).

—

Chattanooga went for it a couple of times on fourth down plays in situations where you might have expected a field goal attempt (particularly on a 4th-and-4 at Wofford’s 20-yard line early in the third quarter). One reason for that is UTC’s expected regular at placekicker is out with an injury.

Skyler Wilson, a freshman who handled placekicking duties for the Mocs on Saturday, did make a 26-yarder against Wofford (he missed another effort from 40 yards). Kickoffs were handled by punter Gabe Boring. Incidentally, Boring was the SoCon’s special teams player of the week after he averaged over 50 yards per boot last Saturday (including a 72-yarder late in the contest).

—

Odds and ends:

– The weather forecast for Saturday in Charleston, per the National Weather Service: partly sunny, and a high of 56°.

– Per one source that deals in such matters, Chattanooga (as of March 3) is a 6Âœ-point favorite over The Citadel. The over/under is 46Âœ.

– Other SoCon lines this week (as of March 3): VMI is an 8Âœ-point favorite at Western Carolina (over/under of 63), and Furman is a 9Âœ-point favorite over Samford (over/under of 54Âœ).

A few more games of note in FCS: Gardner-Webb is a 12-point favorite over Presbyterian; Richmond is a 3œ-point favorite over William and Mary; James Madison is a 21œ-point favorite at Elon; Delaware is a 2œ-point favorite over Maine; Grambling State is a 9œ-point favorite over Jackson State; North Dakota State is a 20-point favorite at Missouri State; South Dakota State is a 22œ-point favorite over Western Illinois; Prairie View A&M is a 19œ-point favorite over Texas Southern; Southeastern Louisiana is a 9œ-point favorite over McNeese State; Eastern Washington is a 14œ-point favorite over Northern Arizona; Incarnate Word is a 13œ-point favorite at Lamar; Southern is a 10œ-point favorite over Arkansas-Pine Bluff; Northern Iowa is an 8œ-point favorite over Illinois State; Albany is a 2-point favorite at New Hampshire (a game being played Friday night); Villanova is a 9œ-point favorite at Stony Brook; and Southern Illinois is a 6œ-point favorite at Youngstown State.

Last week was a huge week for underdogs across FCS. Twenty of the ranked teams in the FCS Stats Perform Poll played, and eleven of them lost. The games ranged from the shocking (Southern Illinois beating North Dakota State 38-14) to the bizarre (Eastern Washington losing after a made field goal was ruled no good, thanks to a brutal combination of hilariously bad officiating and the Kibbie Dome).

– Three SoCon teams are not playing on Saturday. Mercer had a scheduled bye week, while the East Tennessee State-Wofford game was postponed (likely canceled) due to COVID issues in Wofford’s program.

– Chattanooga’s notable alumni include Dennis “Mr. Belding” Haskins, writer and literary critic John W. Aldridge, and Pro Football Hall of Famer Terrell Owens.

– The Citadel is 19-32-2 against Chattanooga in the all-time series. UTC has played the Bulldogs more times than any other opponent. The reverse is not true; The Citadel has played five opponents more often than Chattanooga — Furman, Wofford, Presbyterian, VMI, and Davidson.

– Chattanooga’s 93-man roster (per its game notes) includes 32 players from Tennessee. Other states represented: Georgia (28 players), Alabama (12), South Carolina (5), Florida (4), Ohio (3), North Carolina (2), and one each from Arizona, Indiana, Mississippi, Texas, and Virginia.

Wide receiver Jahmar Quandt is from St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands, and had not played organized football before enrolling at UTC. Quandt also attended Naropa University in Boulder, Colorado, the first Buddhist-inspired accredited academic institution in the United States.

Backup long snapper Bryce Coulson is a native of Brisbane, Australia. Coulson is getting a master’s degree in public administration from UTC after playing at (and graduating from) Eastern Illinois.

– As noted, there are five Palmetto State products on Chattanooga’s squad. Wide receiver Kanore McKinnon (listed as a starter on the two-deep) went to Dillon High School before beginning his collegiate career at Georgia Military College. Starting quarterback Drayton Arnold starred at Myrtle Beach High School before starting his college journey at Old Dominion.

Running back Ailym Ford (West Florence High School) was the SoCon Freshman of the Year in 2019, but suffered a knee injury late in that season. He did not play last week for the Mocs against Wofford (but did participate in Chattanooga’s fall matchup against Western Kentucky, rushing for 92 yards on 25 carries).

Based on comments made by Rusty Wright during his Tuesday press conference regarding injured players on his roster, I suspect that Ford will probably not play against The Citadel. (Wright did not specifically discuss Ford.)

Tight end KeShawn Toney, a transfer from South Carolina, played his high school football at Williston-Elko. He will be eligible to play for UTC in fall 2021. Freshman wideout Will Harris went to Walhalla High School.

Alas, none of the Mocs can claim to be an alumnus of South Carolina’s legendary bastion of football supremacy, Orangeburg-Wilkinson High School. While its relatively close proximity to Atlanta might give UTC a tenuous foothold on a prime recruiting territory, for long-term success Rusty Wright and company must successfully bring in some of those special individuals who have worn the famed maroon and orange. Otherwise, Chattanooga will never rise to the level of an elite program.

– Two UTC players who would otherwise be eligible for spring football have opted out but are still listed on the roster. A third opt-out was a transfer who would not have been able to play on the field this spring anyway.

– The Citadel’s geographic roster breakdown (per the school’s game notes) is as follows: South Carolina (48 players), Georgia (15), Florida (9), North Carolina (7), Texas (3), Pennsylvania (2), Virginia (2), and one each from Alabama, Kentucky, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Tennessee.

Tight end Hayden Williamson played his high school football in Okinawa, Japan.

– The Citadel’s football team has an all-time record of 0-0 for games played on March 6. That is tied for the fewest wins, and fewest losses, for any date in program history.

– This week during the 1990 baseball season at The Citadel:

The Bulldogs entered the week 8-1. A scheduled doubleheader at Campbell was reduced to one 6-inning game due to steady rain in the greater Buies Creek metropolitan area. Ken Britt struck out eight batters en route to a 4-0 shutout and his second win of the season. Billy Baker hit a solo homer, and Phil Tobin tripled and scored. Gettys Glaze had 2 RBI.

The Citadel hosted Norfolk State the following Monday afternoon and triumphed over the Spartans, 5-2. Richard Shirer struck out 10 batters in 7 innings and picked up the win. The hitting star on the day was Anthony Jenkins, who went 4-4 with two homers, a triple, and 3 RBI. Attendance at College Park: 66.

The Citadel was 2-0 during the week ending March 6, with a winning streak of nine games. The overall record stood at 10-1.

—

This will not be an easy game for the Bulldogs. Chattanooga will bring to Charleston an experienced, confident team, one with serious aspirations of contending for the SoCon title.

While no one has doubted the talent on UTC’s roster, there has been some question as to how interested the team (or school) was in playing this spring. All I can say is Chattanooga looked more than interested in competing last Saturday.

The Citadel did, too. The Bulldogs just got off to the worst of starts, and dug themselves a hole too deep to escape. It happens.

I expect a better performance this weekend at home on the peninsula. However, the opponent is going to be tougher. UTC has impact players at a number of positions, and no real weaknesses offensively or defensively (special teams might be a touch more problematic for the Mocs).

For The Citadel to emerge with its first spring victory, it has to win the battle of the clichés. What do I mean by that?

Well, the Bulldogs have to win the turnover battle. They have to run the ball successfully, and stop the run. They have to be strong in the kicking game.

Those are all hoary clichĂ©s — but for this game, they’re also true, particularly the bit about turnovers.

The Citadel also needs more of those big plays on offense. Chattanooga has the capability of breaking off long gainers, even more so than it showed against Wofford. At the very least, the Bulldogs have to match that firepower.

A football game in March, at Johnson Hagood Stadium. It is going to be a little different.

Let’s hope the outcome of the game is different this week, as well.

Filed under: Football, The Citadel | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

2019 Football, Game 11: The Citadel vs. Chattanooga

Posted on November 15, 2019 by Sandlapper Spike

The Citadel at Chattanooga, to be played at Finley Stadium/Davenport Field, with kickoff at 2:00 pm ET on November 16, 2019.

The game will be streamed on ESPN+. Chris Goforth will handle play-by-play, while Scott McMahen supplies the analysis.

The contest can be heard on radio via the various affiliates of The Citadel Sports Network. WQNT-1450 AM [audio link], originating in Charleston, will be the flagship station. 

Luke Mauro (the “Voice of the Bulldogs”) calls the action alongside analyst Ted Byrne.

—

The Citadel Sports Network — 2019 radio affiliates

Charleston: WQNT 1450 AM/92.1 FM/102.1 FM (Flagship)
Columbia: WQXL 1470 AM/100.7 FM
Sumter: WDXY 1240 AM/105.9 FM

—

Links of interest:

– Preview from The Post and Courier

– Chris Beverly made a big play to save the Bulldogs against ETSU

– “Jeff’s Take” from The Post and Courier

– Ra’Shaud Graham is The Citadel’s team chaplain, by way of Lake City

– Game notes from The Citadel and Chattanooga

– SoCon weekly release

– “Gameday Central” on The Citadel’s website

– General information about the game on Chattanooga’s website

– Brent Thompson’s weekly radio show (11/13)

– Brent Thompson’s weekly press conference (11/11)

– The Dogs:  Episode 11

– Media luncheon this week at Chattanooga

– Rusty Wright’s first season at UTC has been fun to watch

—

An explanation of what is to follow from your friendly blogger…

This is a shorter-than-usual preview. My apologies for that, but I just got back from overseas, and I also had to get a new computer (as my old one decided to blow up two days before I left the country, which was not exactly great timing).

This is actually the first thing I am writing on my new laptop. I suspect there are a few typos below, both because I am still getting used to the keyboard and also because I am, frankly, completely jet-lagged. I’m not complaining, exactly; it was worth it.

Anyway, I did the best I could this week.

—

Traditional nomenclature clarification when writing about the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga (some of this is a copy/paste job from previous previews, but it still applies): 

The history of Chattanooga’s mascot and nickname is a confusing one. I’ve written more than once about the school’s identity and branding issues over the years.

Chattanooga has a webpage on its varsity sports website devoted to the one big question that has seemingly dominated discussion at the school for decades: What is a Moc?

 The term “Moc” is short for “Mockingbird.” Mockingbirds are fiercely territorial creatures which protect their homes with courage, determination and skill



Named after legendary football coach A.C. “Scrappy” Moore, Scrappy, the Chattanooga mascot, is a fixture for the Mocs.  A re-design in 2008 puts Scrappy in the image of the State Bird of Tennessee, a Mockingbird.  The mockingbird is known as a fierce protector of its nest and environment. It is sometimes seen swooping down on a dog, cat or predator that may be venturing too close to the bird’s protected territory.   Once described by “Late Night” host Jimmy Fallon as “a sledge-hammer wielding mockingbird with a heart of Blue & Gold,” Scrappy symbolizes that competitive passion.

Faced with politically sensitive issues and in need of a stronger core identity to help establish a strong brand as Chattanooga’s Team, the athletics department embarked on a comprehensive identity program in 1996. A new direction for the athletics identity was determined, moving away from the politically incorrect Native American Indian imagery.

The “Power C” and “Cowcatcher logo” are also branding symbols of note at Chattanooga. About a decade ago, the subject managed to even come to the attention of The New York Times.

The official name of the school, meanwhile, is the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga. Per the game notes:

On first reference, it is acceptable to refer to us as the “University of Tennessee at Chattanooga.” After that, we prefer to be called “Chattanooga” or “UTC.” Our nickname is “Mocs,” not Moccasins. Chattanooga is pronounced chat-uh-NEW-guh, commonly mistaken as CHATT-nooga.

In this post, I’ll refer to “Chattanooga”, “UTC”, and “Mocs” when discussing its football program.

—

One comment on the victory over East Tennessee State two weeks ago:

The inability to properly review Nkem Njoku’s apparent TD catch (either because of a lack of a decent camera angle, or just an outright refusal by the replay booth to review the play) calls into question whether or not the SoCon should even employ replay review.

The lack of consistency among replay review setups in the conference is jarring. That play should have been easily reviewed. The fact that it evidently was not speaks volumes about ETSU’s onsite replay review capability, and it further erodes confidence in the SoCon’s officiating, both at the field and administrative levels.

Some things, unfortunately, never seem to change.

—

The Citadel and Chattanooga are very closely matched this season from a statistical perspective in league-only games. For example, in SoCon play The Citadel is scoring 34.0 points per game while allowing 28.8 points per contest, while the Mocs are averaging 33.2 points per game while giving up 27.2 points.

UTC has an offensive third-down conversion rate in league play of 45.8%, while The Citadel is at 45.5% in that category. Both are converting 62.5% of the time on fourth down (though the Bulldogs have attempted twice as many fourth-down tries in conference action).

In terms of turnover margin in SoCon games, Chattanooga is +4 while The Citadel is +3.

A few differences: Chattanooga is the least-penalized team in SoCon games, giving up only 38.8 yards per game. (The Citadel is 7th out of 9 teams in penalty yardage.)

The Citadel has the edge in Red Zone TD rate, both offensively and defensively. The Bulldogs put the ball in the end zone 75.9% of the time in SoCon action when they enter the Red Zone, while the Mocs’ offense does so on 66.7% of its trips inside the 20-yard line.

The biggest discrepancy in on defense. While The Citadel is allowing a defensive red zone TD rate of 56.5%, Chattanooga has given up TDs on 16 of its opponents’ 20 trips into scoring territory (80%).

—

Some other stuff:

– This is Chattanooga’s 112th season of playing football. This is also The Citadel’s 112th year of fielding a football team.

– Chattanooga’s new defensive coordinator this season is longtime coach Lorenzo “Whammy” Ward, father of former Bulldogs running back Lorenzo Ward (who set the record for most rushing TDs in a Homecoming game last season for The Citadel when he scored four times in the Bulldogs’ big comeback victory over Samford).

– On Saturday, the Mocs and Bulldogs will meet for the 53rd time. This is actually Chattanooga’s longest football series in terms of games played. By comparison, The Citadel has played five different opponents 53 or more times (Davidson, Furman, Presbyterian, VMI, and Wofford). The Bulldogs also have series of 40+ games against Newberry, South Carolina, Appalachian State, and Western Carolina.

I tend to doubt that most fans of either UTC or The Citadel consider this matchup a true rivalry, though. The two schools are not particularly close in terms of geography, nor are they similar in enrollment size or mission. There also haven’t been too many games of consequence for both schools over the years (this season’s matchup being an exception).,

However, UTC’s game notes suggests the “rivalry” is a “hot one”, and “one of the more heated rivalries in the league over the last few meetings.” Of course, Chattanooga’s game notes used the exact same verbiage last year when the Mocs played the Bulldogs…and in 2017…and in 2016, too.

– Saturday will be Chattanooga’s “Military Appreciation Day” game. It was also Military Appreciation Day when The Citadel made the trip to Finley Stadium in 2017 and 2015.

– From Jeff Hartsell’s November 11 column in The Post and Courier, word on a key injury for the Mocs:

Star running back Ailym Ford, a freshman from West Florence who is second in the  SoCon with 1,081 rushing yards, went out with a knee injury early in the game and seems unlikely to play this week.

In his place, graduate student transfer Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks ran for 139 yards and two TDs on 27 carries, and QB Nick Tiano also ran for 100 yards, rushing for one TD and throwing for two.

Among league teams, only VMI running back Alex Ramsey has more rushing yards than Ford, who (as noted in the article) went to West Florence High School.

However, Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks is a formidable back in his own right. The 5’8″, 205 lb. graduate transfer rushed for 1,401 yards and 16 TDs as a sophomore at Albany before missing most of his junior season due injury. Last year, he rushed for 767 yards for the Great Danes.

—

Odds and ends:

– The weather forecast for Saturday in Chattanooga, Tennessee, per the National Weather Service: sunny and a high of 57 degrees. The low temperature on Saturday night is projected to be 33 degrees.

– Per one source that deals in such matters (as of Friday afternoon), The Citadel-Chattanooga is a pick’em, with an over/under of 55.

Through nine games this season, The Citadel is 5-5 ATS. The over has hit just three times in ten games — but one of those was in the last game, versus ETSU.

– Other lines involving SoCon teams: Samford is a 9-point favorite at Western Carolina; VMI is a 34 1/2 point underdog at Army; East Tennessee State is a 4 1/2 point favorite over Mercer; and Furman is a 1-point favorite at Wofford.

– Also of note: Towson is a 4 1/2 point favorite at William & Mary, and Charleston Southern is a 14-point favorite at Presbyterian. Elon is off this week.

Georgia Tech is a 6 1/2 point home underdog to Virginia Tech.

In games between FCS schools, the biggest spread is 33 1/2, with Villanova favored over LIU.

– Massey Ratings: The Citadel is ranked 41st in FCS. The Mocs are 51st.

Massey projects the Bulldogs to have a 52% chance of winning, with a predicted final score of The Citadel 28, Chattanooga 27.

The top five teams in Massey’s FCS rankings this week: North Dakota State, James Madison, Dartmouth, Weber State, and Montana.

Other rankings this week of varied interest: South Dakota State is 8th, UC Davis 11th, Villanova 15th, Towson 16th, Furman 19th, Monmouth 25th, Central Connecticut State 29th, Wofford 31st, Kennesaw State 34th, Elon 36th, Youngstown State 42nd, North Carolina A&T 52nd, Jacksonville State 55th, South Carolina State 59th, Samford 67th, Campbell 73rd, Mercer 75th, VMI 79th, Charleston Southern 91st, East Tennessee State 92nd, Western Carolina 99th, Davidson 100th, Eastern Illinois 102nd, Gardner-Webb 109th, Presbyterian 124th, and Butler 126th (last).

– Chattanooga’s notable alumni include actor Dennis “Mr. Belding” Haskins, retired general Burwell Bell, and chemist Irvine Grote.

– Future FBS opponents for the Mocs include Western Kentucky (in 2020), Kentucky (2021), and Illinois (2022). Chattanooga also has a two-game set with North Alabama in the future, and will finish home-and-home series against James Madison and Eastern Illinois.

– Chattanooga’s roster includes 40 players from the state of Tennessee. Other states represented: Georgia (19 players), Alabama (13), Florida (8), Ohio (3), South Carolina (3), and one each from Kentucky, North Carolina, Texas, New Jersey, and Mississippi.

Sophomore wideout Jahmar Quandt is from the U.S. Virgin Islands.

The Palmetto State products (and their respective high schools) on the Mocs’ squad are junior wide receiver Kanore McKinnon (Dillon, followed by two years at Georgia Military College), junior quarterback Drayton Arnold (Myrtle Beach, a transfer from Old Dominion), and freshman running back Ailym Ford (as mentioned earlier, from West Florence).

While there are a few South Carolina natives on Chattanooga’s squad, none are from celebrated gridiron factory Orangeburg-Wilkinson High School. Failing to recruit any stars (or even scrubs) from the famed maroon and orange will have negative repercussions for UTC’s football program for many decades to come.

– The Citadel’s geographic roster breakdown (per the school’s website) is as follows: South Carolina (53 players), Georgia (29), Florida (8), Texas (5), North Carolina (3), Pennsylvania (3), Alabama (2), New York (2), and one each from Virginia, Nebraska, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Ohio, and Kentucky.

In addition, there are two Bulldogs with listed hometowns in other countries — junior tight end Elijah Lowe (Abaco, Bahamas), and freshman linebacker Hayden Williamson (Okinawa, Japan).

– The Citadel still leads in time of possession for all FCS teams (35:26 per game), just ahead of Wofford. Chattanooga is 54th (30:07).

– This week’s two-deep for The Citadel appears to be unchanged from two weeks ago.

– The Citadel has an all-time record of 6-10 for games played on November 16. Among the highlights from past contests:

  • 1916: Before an enthusiastic crowd of 3,500 at the Orangeburg County Fair, The Citadel defeated Clemson 3-0 in a Thursday afternoon game. Johnny Weeks’ 25-yard field goal in the third quarter proved to be the decisive (and only) score. With the win, the Bulldogs all but clinched a second straight state championship. The 1916 squad, which was 6-1-1 (including wins over both Clemson and South Carolina), was probably the most successful gridiron team at The Citadel in the pre-World War II era.
  • 1929: The Citadel shut out Mercer, 21-0, at the original Johnson Hagood Stadium. Tom “Pop” Wilson broke a scoreless deadlock with a four-yard run in the third quarter. Howard “Red” Whittington scored the other two TDs, the second on a 29-yard pass reception from Julius “Runt” Gray. Ed McIntosh added a number of bruising runs from the fullback position and also kicked all three PATs. The Bulldogs’ defense intercepted four Mercer passes.
  • 1968: The Bulldogs overcame a dubious SoCon officiating decision to upset William & Mary in Williamsburg, 24-21. After the Tribe took the lead following a 22-yard penalty for defensive pass interference on a fourth down play in which a pass was not actually thrown, The Citadel responded with the game-winning drive, with Jim McMillan rushing for a six-yard TD with 1:16 remaining. It was the second of two touchdowns for McMillan, with Tony Passander accounting for the Bulldogs’ other TD. Jim Gahagan added a field goal and three PATs for The Citadel. Red Parker was very happy with the Bulldogs’ victory; it can be safely assumed that Marv Levy, head coach at the time of William & Mary, was not.
  • 1974: In Greenville, The Citadel whipped Furman, 24-0. Andrew Johnson rushed for 149 yards and two touchdowns, with Gene Dotson providing the other TD on a nine-yard QB keeper. Steve Bailey added a field goal and three extra points. The defense forced six Paladin turnovers — four fumbles and two interceptions. Among the stars on the Bulldogs’ D that day were David Sollazzo, Ron Shelley, Billy Long, Ellis Johnson, and “the omni-present” Brian Ruff.
  • 1991: The Citadel defeated East Tennessee State in Johnson City, 17-7. Only 3,017 were on hand to see the Bulldogs clinch a fourth consecutive non-losing season, the first time that had happened since 1923-1926. Jack Douglas rushed for 151 yards and a touchdown, with Cedric Sims adding 72 yards and a score. Rob Avriett kicked a 42-yard field goal and converted two PATs. Willie Jones had four receptions for 82 yards. The defense was very strong for The Citadel; Lance Cook had two big sacks, and the Bulldogs forced four turnovers — a fumble recovery by David Russinko and interceptions by Shannon Walker, Torrence Forney, and Kelly Fladger.
  • 2013: The Bulldogs beat VMI, 31-10, scoring three touchdowns in the fourth quarter to break a 10-10 tie. Ben Dupree rushed for 109 yards and three touchdowns; the fourth TD was added by Dalton Trevino. Darien Robinson rushed for 115 yards for the Bulldogs. Thomas Warren kicked a field goal and four PATs. Sadath Jean-Pierre intercepted a pass, and the rest of his defensive teammates accounted for seven sacks (with Derek Douglas picking up two of them).

—

Everything statistically about this game suggests that it should be a close contest, and I see no reason to doubt that.

I am hopeful that a lot of Bulldog fans will be making the trip up to the Scenic City. I won’t be able to be there in person, but I will be there in spirit (at least, I would like to think so). I’ve been to Chattanooga before; it’s a good drive (Atlanta-area traffic being a notable exception to that) and the stadium setup is solid.

The Bulldogs are trying to become the 19th team in program history to win at least seven games in a season. Let’s hope they can move into that relatively rarefied air on Saturday.

Filed under: Football, The Citadel | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a comment »

Ruminating about ratings — 2019 preseason numbers for The Citadel, SoCon, FCS, and more

Posted on August 11, 2019 by Sandlapper Spike

Recent posts about football at The Citadel:

– “Advanced” statistics from The Citadel’s 2018 football season

– Inside the Numbers, Part 1: The Citadel’s 2018 run/pass tendencies and yards per play statistics, with SoCon/FCS discussion as well

– Inside the Numbers, Part 2: The Citadel’s 2018 4th down decision-making, plus Red Zone stats, 3rd down conversion info, etc.

– Football attendance at The Citadel (and elsewhere) — an annual review

– 2019 preseason rankings and ratings, featuring The Citadel and the rest of the SoCon

– During the 2019 football season, which teams will the Bulldogs’ opponents play before (and after) facing The Citadel?

– Homecoming at The Citadel — a brief gridiron history

—

Other links of interest:

– Cam Jackson, playing American football in Turkey (and enjoying dessert)

– Brandon Rainey talks about the upcoming season, and about closure

– Dante Smith had a very good game against Alabama; is ready to have even more very good games this season

– Bulldogs hold first scrimmage in the heat of Charleston

—

Usually, I discuss the Massey Ratings at the same time that I write about the preseason rankings from the various college football magazines. This year, because the ratings came out a little later, I decided to have two posts, one for rankings (which can be read here) and one for ratings.

I’m going to also briefly delve into several other preseason computer ratings for FCS teams. There will be a table!

—

For several years now, I’ve been incorporating the Massey Ratings into my game previews. For those not entirely familiar with this ratings system, here is an explanation:

The Massey Ratings are designed to measure past performance, not necessarily to predict future outcomes
overall team rating is a merit based quantity, and is the result of applying a Bayesian win-loss correction to the power rating.


In contrast to the overall rating, the Power is a better measure of potential and is less concerned with actual wins-losses.


A team’s Offense power rating essentially measures the ability to score points. This does not distinguish how points are scored, so good defensive play that leads to scoring will be reflected in the Offense rating. In general, the offensive rating can be interpreted as the number of points a team would be expected to score against an average defense.

Similarly, a team’s Defense power rating reflects the ability to prevent its opponent from scoring. An average defense will be rated at zero. Positive or negative defensive ratings would respectively lower or raise the opponent’s expected score accordingly.


the Massey model will in some sense minimize the unexplained error (noise). Upsets will occur and it is impossible (and also counter-productive) to get an exact fit to the actual game outcomes. Hence, I publish an estimated standard deviation. About 68% of observed game results will fall within one standard deviation of the expected (“average”) result.


Preseason ratings are typically derived as a weighted average of previous years’ final ratings. As the current season progresses, their effect gets damped out completely. The only purpose preseason ratings serve is to provide a reasonable starting point for the computer. Mathematically, they guarantee a unique solution to the equations early in the season when not enough data is available yet.

As I’ve mentioned before, Massey has ratings for almost every college football team — not just FBS and FCS squads, but D-2, D-3, NAIA, junior colleges, and Canadian schools. This season, there are preseason ratings for 927 colleges and universities in the United States and Canada, from Clemson (#1) to Vermilion Community College (#927).

Vermilion is located in Ely, Minnesota. The Ironmen were 1-7 last season (1-5 in the Minnesota College Athletic Conference).

This year, The Citadel is #176 overall in the preseason ratings. In previous campaigns, the Bulldogs had overall preseason rankings of 218 (in 2018), 130 (2017), 113 (2016) and 174 (2015).

The teams on The Citadel’s 2019 schedule are ranked in the ratings as follows (with the chances of a Bulldogs victory in parenthesis):

  • Towson: 151 (45%)
  • Elon: 161 (36%)
  • Georgia Tech: 54 (3%)
  • Charleston Southern: 245 (86%)
  • Samford: 148 (32%)
  • VMI: 249 (85%)
  • Western Carolina: 220 (75%)
  • Furman: 153 (34%)
  • Mercer: 181 (58%)
  • East Tennessee State: 192 (50%)
  • Chattanooga: 183 (47%)
  • Wofford: 138 (39%)

Going by the ratings, a Massey preseason poll for the SoCon would look like this:

1 – Wofford
2 – Samford
3 – Furman
4 – The Citadel
5 – Mercer
6 – Chattanooga
7 – East Tennessee State
8 – Western Carolina
9 – VMI

—

Massey’s FCS-only rankings (ratings) for select schools:

  • North Dakota State – 1
  • South Dakota State – 2
  • Eastern Washington – 3
  • Princeton – 4
  • Dartmouth – 5
  • UC Davis – 6
  • James Madison – 7
  • Northern Iowa – 8
  • Illinois State – 9
  • Weber State – 10
  • Colgate – 11
  • Harvard – 15
  • Kennesaw State – 19
  • Wofford – 21
  • Samford – 24
  • Towson – 26
  • Furman – 28
  • Elon – 33
  • Jacksonville State – 38
  • The Citadel – 46
  • Mercer – 49
  • Chattanooga – 51
  • North Carolina A&T – 54
  • East Tennessee State – 55
  • San Diego – 58
  • Duquesne – 59
  • Richmond – 61
  • Alcorn State – 70
  • Western Carolina – 75
  • Charleston Southern – 87
  • VMI – 91
  • South Carolina State – 94
  • Campbell – 96
  • North Alabama – 103
  • Gardner-Webb – 104
  • LIU – 110
  • Davidson – 114
  • Hampton – 117
  • Jacksonville – 118
  • Presbyterian – 122
  • Mississippi Valley State – 125
  • Merrimack -126

—

In the “overall” category, some schools of note:

  • Clemson – 1
  • Alabama – 2
  • Georgia – 3
  • LSU – 4
  • Oklahoma – 5
  • Ohio State – 6
  • Notre Dame – 7
  • Florida – 8
  • Texas A&M – 9
  • Auburn – 10
  • Syracuse – 15
  • Texas – 16
  • Washington – 17
  • Missouri – 18
  • Kentucky – 19
  • UCF – 20
  • Fresno State – 25
  • North Dakota State – 26 (highest-rated FCS team)
  • Stanford – 27
  • South Carolina – 34
  • North Carolina State – 35
  • Virginia – 40
  • Wake Forest – 42
  • Miami (FL) – 44
  • Appalachian State – 47
  • Vanderbilt – 49
  • Army – 50
  • Georgia Tech – 54
  • Southern California – 56
  • Florida State – 59
  • Ohio – 66
  • Marshall – 71
  • Air Force – 79
  • Georgia Southern – 85
  • Navy – 98
  • North Texas – 99
  • Rutgers – 103
  • Oregon State – 116
  • Coastal Carolina – 127
  • Liberty – 131
  • Laval – 155 (highest-rated Canadian team)
  • Connecticut – 169
  • Ferris State – 174 (highest-rated D-2 team)
  • Rice – 179
  • Laney College – 184 (highest-rated junior college team)
  • UTEP – 191
  • Mary Hardin-Baylor – 227 (highest-rated D-3 team)
  • Morningside (IA) – 237 (highest-rated NAIA team)

—

Of course, the Massey Ratings aren’t the only ratings out there. On his website, Massey himself lists 19 other services, some of which include FCS teams in their respective ratings. Not all of those have preseason ratings, however.

There appear to be five other ratings systems (on his list, anyway) that have updated preseason FCS ratings. I decided to create a table in order to compare the ratings (by rankings) of 17 different FCS schools — the nine SoCon institutions, along with The Citadel’s three non-conference FCS opponents this season (Towson, Elon, and Charleston Southern), two other instate schools (Presbyterian and South Carolina State), and three other solid programs in the league footprint (Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, and North Carolina A&T).

Like any good table, there is a key:

Drum roll…

The table (remember, these are rankings only for the 126 FCS teams; i.e., VMI is the preseason #91 team among all FCS squads in the Massey Ratings):

Team A B C D E F
The Citadel 46 24 43 36 39 59
VMI 91 111 114 107 106 120
Furman 28 33 20 25 27 32
Wofford 21 22 13 17 13 13
Chattanooga 51 49 54 42 33 43
ETSU 55 56 31 65 83 19
Samford 24 23 25 24 20 52
WCU 75 82 86 78 76 99
Mercer 49 54 56 48 41 67
Towson 26 29 11 28 18 23
Elon 33 36 24 40 38 26
Ch. Southern 87 83 62 74 97 62
Presbyterian 122 115 115 112 112 114
S.C. State 94 85 88 81 71 71
Kennesaw St. 19 5 7 9 15 8
N.C. A&T 54 37 18 37 53 11
Jacksonville St. 38 26 6 12 10 16

—

While some teams have fairly small groupings in terms of rankings among the services (such as Furman, Wofford, and Presbyterian), others differ wildly (particularly East Tennessee State and North Carolina A&T).

I was perhaps most surprised by the generally solid rankings for Samford, which comes across as a borderline top 25 preseason pick in these ratings. That certainly isn’t how SU has been perceived in the various rankings that have been released this summer, either league or national.

—

A few other things I’ll mention that aren’t reflected in the table:

– Entropy System’s preseason #1 FCS team isn’t North Dakota State, but South Dakota State. Hmm…

–  CSL included Virginia University of Lynchburg in its rankings. VUL is not an FCS school, but the computer program that put together the list may have thought it was, given that the Dragons play seven FCS opponents this season (Merrimack, Davidson, Mississippi Valley State, Prairie View A&M, Hampton, Southern, and Morgan State).

All of those games are on the road — in fact, the Dragons will play ten road games in 2019. VUL, a member of the National Christian Colleges Athletic Association (NCCAA), has two home games this year.

For the purposes of this post, I removed Virginia University of Lynchburg from the CSL Ratings, so that all the teams ranked were actually FCS squads.

– LIU, which will field an FCS team for the first time (having combined varsity programs at its two branch campuses), is ranked #22 by CSL, probably because the then-Pioneers (new nickname: Sharks!) were 10-1 in D-2 last season. Considering LIU did not play a Division I team last season, that high of a preseason ranking seems a bit dubious. We’ll know rather quickly just how dubious it is, as LIU opens its season at South Dakota State.

The overall situation with LIU is quite interesting. Basically, a D-2 varsity athletics program is being folded into an existing D-1 setup. Not everyone was happy about that decision.

College basketball fans may be familiar with the LIU Blackbirds, which made the NCAA tourney a few times and once played home games in the old Paramount Theater in Brooklyn. Now there are no Blackbirds, and no Pioneers (from the LIU-Post campus). Everyone is a blue-and-gold Shark.

LIU-Brooklyn didn’t have a football team, unlike LIU-Post. Thus, the D-2 football program is simply moving up to D-1 — but because it is going to be part of an already existing D-1 athletics program, it doesn’t have to go through a “transition” period and is immediately eligible to compete for the NEC title and an NCAA playoff berth.

– Steve Pugh is the creator/publisher of the “Compughter Ratings”. He has a master’s degree from Virginia Tech, as does Ken Massey. Apparently VT grad students spend most of their waking hours coming up with sports ratings systems.

– The Laz Index also rates Florida high school football teams. It has done so since 1999.

– Along with college football, the Born Power Index rates high school football teams in Pennsylvania and New Jersey — in fact, it was used last year by the New Jersey Interscholastic Athletic Association to rank playoff teams in that state.

This didn’t go over too well:

There has been a tremendous amount of criticism heaped on the NJSIAA for the new United Power Rankings.  A complicated formula that no one is 100 percent sure is accurate at any time, it basically breaks the ranking of teams into numbers – The Born Power Index and average power points.

The Born Power Index has been around since 1962, and is a mathematical rating system which somehow, determines how good a team is. Somehow, I say, because the formula is proprietary, and William Born, its creator, is not sharing with the public. That lack of transparency has a lot of people bothered.

The index will apparently not be a part of the “power ranking” for the New Jersey high school football playoffs this season.

– Five of the six ratings systems have Princeton in the top 7. The exception is the Compughter Ratings, which has the Tigers ranked 19th. On the other hand, fellow Ivy League school Dartmouth is ranked 12th by the Compughter Ratings.

Entropy has both Princeton and Dartmouth in the top 5, and Harvard ranked 14th among FCS schools. Massey also has Princeton and Dartmouth in the top 5; Harvard is 15th in that service.

Ivy League schools with high ratings (and rankings) are the norm for most of these college football ratings services. I think this is a bug, not a feature.

Personally, I find it difficult to justify ranking Princeton and Dartmouth in the top five, or even the top 20 for that matter. That said, the Tigers and Big Green might be very good.

However, the Ivy Leaguers’ lack of schedule connectivity with the vast majority of their FCS brethren — particularly the more highly-regarded teams — makes it all but impossible to compare those squads to the elite outfits in the sub-division. For example, in 2019 none of the Ivies will face a team from the MVFC, Big Sky, SoCon, Southland, OVC, Big South, or SWAC.

Here is a list of all the non-conference games played by Ivy League schools this season against teams ranked in the STATS preseason Top 25:

  • Dartmouth hosts #13 Colgate
  • Cornell hosts #13 Colgate
  • Penn is at #22 Delaware

Princeton has been the standard-bearer for the league in recent years. The Tigers host Lafayette and Butler, and travel to Bucknell. Those three teams were a combined 8-25 last season; this year, their respective preseason Massey rankings in FCS are 100, 112, and 108.

It is very hard to say that Princeton is one of the best FCS teams in the country when there is no practical way to demonstrate the validity of such a statement.

—

At any rate, we’re getting even closer and closer to football season, which is all that really matters.

Filed under: Football, The Citadel | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

“Advanced” stats from The Citadel’s 2018 SoCon campaign

Posted on August 3, 2019 by Sandlapper Spike

Other recent posts about football at The Citadel:

– Inside the Numbers, Part 1: The Citadel’s 2018 run/pass tendencies and yards per play statistics, with SoCon/FCS discussion as well

– Inside the Numbers, Part 2: The Citadel’s 2018 4th down decision-making, plus Red Zone stats, 3rd down conversion info, etc.

– Football attendance at The Citadel (and elsewhere) — an annual review

– 2019 preseason rankings and ratings, featuring The Citadel and the rest of the SoCon

– During the 2019 football season, which teams will the Bulldogs’ opponents play before (and after) facing The Citadel?

– Homecoming at The Citadel — a brief gridiron history

—

Additional links about the Bulldogs’ upcoming gridiron campaign:

– Hero Sports previews The Citadel

– Five questions as The Citadel opens fall practice

– WCSC-TV was at the first fall practice

– What about a preview of the Bulldogs’ first opponent, Towson?

—

What follows is mostly (but not exclusively) about the “Five Factors” of college football. This is the third straight year I’ve written about The Citadel and the Five Factors; you can read my previous efforts here and here.

Later in this post I’ll discuss a few stats not directly related to the Five Factors, but we’ll start with the 5F. First, here is Bill Connelly of ESPN (formerly of SB Nation; he moved to the four-letter about a month ago) on what the Five Factors actually are. This is from 2014, but it still applies:


I’ve come to realize that the sport comes down to five basic things, four of which you can mostly control. You make more big plays than your opponent, you stay on schedule, you tilt the field, you finish drives, and you fall on the ball. Explosiveness, efficiency, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers are the five factors to winning football games.

  • If you win the explosiveness battle (using PPP), you win 86 percent of the time.

  • If you win the efficiency battle (using Success Rate), you win 83 percent of the time.

  • If you win the drive-finishing battle (using points per trip inside the 40), you win 75 percent of the time.

  • If you win the field position battle (using average starting field position), you win 72 percent of the time.

  • If you win the turnover battle (using turnover margin), you win 73 percent of the time.

Connelly later adjusted some of the formulas that result in the five factors, but the basic principles are the same.

—

I’ve already discussed a lot of other statistics in my annual post on per-play numbers, conversion rates, etc. (see Part 1 and Part 2, linked above), but these are slightly different types of stats.

They are “advanced” statistics for the Bulldogs’ 2018 season. Is there a really convenient spreadsheet that goes with this post? You bet there is!

Keep in mind that these stats are for SoCon games only. Eight games. Sample size caveats do apply.

Also, please remember that the stats were compiled by me, so they may not be completely perfect. However, finding “ready-made” FCS stats for these categories is not easy. Actually, it’s just about impossible. I’m not complaining…okay, maybe I am complaining.

Since there are no readily available equivalent stats online for FCS teams, I will occasionally be using FBS data for comparisons. With that in mind, let me quote something from last year’s post about advanced stats.

Now, you may be wondering whether or not FCS stats would be similar to those for the FBS.

For the most part, they should be — with a couple of possible caveats. I asked Bill Connelly a question about FBS vs. FCS stats and potential differences, and he was nice enough to respond. Here is what he had to say about it on his podcast:


The one thing you will notice is the further down you go, from pro to college, from FBS to FCS, Division II to high school and all that
the more big plays you’re going to have, and the more turnovers you’re going to have. That’s going to be the biggest difference, because you’re going to have more lopsided matchups, and you’re just going to have more mistakes. And so if you go down to the FCS level, it’s not going to be a dramatic difference with FBS — but that’s going to be the difference. You’re going to have more breakdowns, you’re going to have more lopsided matchups to take advantage of, you’re not going to have quite the same level of proficiency throughout a defense, and so there will be more mistakes on defense, and I think the reason North Dakota State has been so good is that they’re about as close as you can get to kind of being mistake-free in that regard.

As long as an FCS team plays in a league in which most, if not all, of the teams are competitive (such as the SoCon), statistical variance should be relatively normal, so I feel reasonably confident that there is validity to the numbers I’m about to present.

Okay, time for the Five Factors.

—

Field position

Annual reminder: the key to evaluating and understanding this category is that an offense’s effectiveness (in terms of field position) is measured by the starting field position of its defense (and vice versa).

Special teams play is obviously critically important for field position as well. Net punting, kickoff coverage, the return game — it all counts. Last year, The Citadel benefited from strong special teams play.

The FBS national average for starting field position in 2017 was the 29.6 yard line. Unfortunately, I was unable to determine the average starting field position for 2018, but it is probably similar. There may have been a very slight uptick due to the rule change for fair catches on kickoffs.

-Average starting yard line of offensive drives-

The Citadel Opponent Margin
Home 32.3 24.3  8.0
Road 33.9 28.7  5.2
Avg. 33.1 26.5  +6.6

The Citadel won the field position battle in six of eight league contests. The exceptions were Mercer and ETSU.

However, the numbers for the Mercer contest do not include Rod Johnson’s game-winning 94-yard kickoff return for a TD. That is because this statistic only reflects where offensive drives started, and the Bulldogs did not have an offensive drive after Johnson’s return (because he scored).

There is a similar issue with Dante Smith’s touchdown in the Western Carolina game, which came directly after a blocked punt by Bradley Carter. This isn’t a flaw in the statistic, but just something that has to be kept in mind.

The Citadel’s net punting average in SoCon play was 38.3 (third-best, behind Mercer and Furman). The league average was 35.5. Trust my numbers on that, as the net punting averages on the SoCon website are incorrect.

The Bulldogs were fourth in both punt return average and kickoff return average in conference play. The Citadel was third in kickoff return coverage, with a touchback rate of 43.2% (second-best in the SoCon). That TB rate is in line with the 2017 average (46.7%).

A corollary stat to field position is “3-and-outs+”, which is forcing an offense off the field after a possession of three plays or less that does not result in a score.

After a sizable edge in this stat in 2016 (a 7.7% positive margin), the Bulldogs’ differential in during the 2017 campaign was -2.5%. Last year, The Citadel rebounded in a major way, with a differential of almost 9% (33.70% – 24.73%). It helped that the offense reduced its number of 3-and-out drives by a significant margin (though there were occasional struggles in this area).

Toledo (+8.2) and Syracuse (+7.6) ranked 1-2 in field position margin for FBS. Other teams that had sizable edges in field position included Michigan, Marshall, Ohio State, LSU, and Auburn.

Florida State, with a FP margin of -9.3, was the worst FBS team in the category. It was a tough year in Tallahassee.

—

Efficiency

For defining efficiency, a stat called “Success Rate” is useful. Via Football Outsiders:

A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.

The FBS average for Success Rate in a given season is roughly 40%.

-Success Rate-

The Citadel Opponent Margin
Home 41.37% 41.21% 0.17%
Road 38.53% 39.76% -1.23%
Avg. 40.02% 40.42% -0.40%

The Citadel was 3-5 in the efficiency battle in league games, coming out ahead against Mercer, ETSU, and Western Carolina. (Yes, VMI edged the Bulldogs in Success Rate, and by more than you might think.)

Two years ago, The Citadel had a differential of -4.24% in Success Rate, so 2018 was an improvement. That said, the Bulldogs have to stay “on schedule” on offense with their triple option attack, and 40% is not quite good enough.

During the 2016 season, The Citadel had an offensive Success Rate of 45.4%. Last year, such a percentage would have resulted in about 30 more “successful” plays in league action for the Bulldogs, or 3.75 per game. Three or four more successful plays per contest, whether they were long gainers or just helped move the chains, could have made a difference in several close games.

In FBS, Alabama led the way in offensive Success Rate, at 56.2%. Oklahoma ranked second, at 54.9%. Other squads that fared well in this sphere included Ohio, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Wisconsin, and Missouri. Army was also solid (22nd nationally).

Rice, Central Michigan, and Rutgers (130th and last) were the most inefficient offensive units in the subdivision.

UAB ranked first in defensive Success Rate. Another C-USA team, Southern Mississippi, was second, followed by Michigan and Cincinnati. Alabama, Fresno State, and Appalachian State also finished in the top 10.

It should come as no surprise that the worst defensive teams in this category were Louisville, Oregon State, and cellar-dweller Connecticut, with the Huskies in particular having a historically bad defense.

In terms of margin, Alabama dominated (+22.0%). Clemson was second. Also in control from a marginal efficiency perspective: Wisconsin, Florida, Mississippi State, and Ohio State.

—

Explosiveness

Here is an explanation of “IsoPPP”:

IsoPPP is the Equivalent Points Per Play (PPP) average on only successful plays. This allows us to look at offense in two steps: How consistently successful were you, and when you were successful, how potent were you?

The triple option offense does not lend itself to explosive plays, as a rule. Now, big plays are certainly important to the overall success of the offense. However, the modest-but-successful plays generally associated with the attack tend to cancel out the “chunk” plays when calculating the stat.

The Bulldogs only came out ahead in this category in one of eight league contests, the third consecutive season that was the case. That one game was against Samford.

-Explosiveness (IsoPPP)-

The Citadel Opponent Margin
Home 0.98 1.25 -0.27
Road 1.06 1.41 -0.35
Avg. 1.02 1.33 -0.31

The averages are slightly worse than last season, with the largest discrepancy the defensive rate at home (it was 1.05 in 2017).

FBS rankings are from Football Outsiders, which also includes “IsoPPP+”, which adjusts for opponent strength. However, I’m just going to list the unadjusted IsoPPP averages here.

The FBS national median for Explosiveness was 1.17. Oklahoma led the subdivision, at 1.46, followed by Maryland (in a bit of a surprise), Memphis, Houston, and Alabama.

As would be expected, the triple option (or triple option oriented) teams were all below average in explosiveness, with the notable exception of Georgia Southern (1.19, 53rd overall). Navy was 111th, New Mexico 112th, Georgia Tech 113th, Air Force 120th, and Army 129th (next-to-last, only ahead of Central Michigan).

BYU was the champion when it came to defensive IsoPPP (0.90). The rest of the top five: Iowa, Georgia, Washington, and Wyoming. Clemson was 8th, South Carolina 12th, and Georgia Southern 15th.

Last season, Georgia Southern was next-to-last in defensive IsoPPP, so there was a dramatic improvement on defense for that program. Beautiful Eagle Creek shimmered in the moonlight again.

On the wrong end of too many explosive plays: Virginia Tech, Coastal Carolina, South Alabama, East Carolina, Georgia State, and (of course) Connecticut, which had a defensive IsoPPP of 1.50. Yikes.

Imagine what would have happened if Oklahoma had played Connecticut last season…

—

Finishing Drives

This category calculates points per trip inside the opponent’s 40-yard line, based on the logical notion that the true “scoring territory” on the field begins at the +40.

The FBS national average for points per trip inside the opponent’s 40-yard line in 2017 was 4.42.

-Finishing Drives-

The Citadel Opponent Margin
Home 4.56 3.90 0.66
Road 4.82 5.41 -0.59
Avg. 4.69 4.55 0.14

This was a big improvement over a terrible 2017, when the Bulldogs struggled to put points on the board while in the Red Zone or the Front Zone.

The margin in 2018 might have been modest, but it was much more respectable than the -2.64 put up the year before. The defense does need to do a better job of bending (as opposed to breaking) when on the road, but that unit still improved by over a point in this category from 2017.

  • Scoring margin per game in SoCon play, 2016: 11.1
  • Scoring margin per game in SoCon play, 2017: -6.6
  • Scoring margin per game in SoCon play, 2018: 2.0

There are usually a lot of close games in the Southern Conference (five of the Bulldogs’ eight league games last season were decided by 7 points or less). That makes it all the more important, when approaching the goal line, to put the pigskin in the end zone.

Oklahoma led FBS in finishing drives (offense) last year, with a borderline-ridiculous 5.7 points per trip inside the 40-yard line. UCF was 2nd, followed by Utah State, Houston, Clemson, and Washington State. The worst team at finishing drives was UTSA.

The best defense inside the 40-yard line was Clemson, which allowed only 3.0 points per trip. Other stout defensive units in this area included Mississippi State, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Miami (FL), Kentucky, and Appalachian State. The worst defense inside the 40 was also the worst defense outside the 40, or on the 40, or above the 40, or anywhere — Connecticut.

As you might imagine, Clemson topped the charts in finishing drives margin, at +2.4. As succinctly noted in Athlon’s college preview magazine, that meant opponents needed to create twice as many chances as Clemson to score as many points. That never happened, obviously.

Mississippi State (+2.1) was second. In last place was Louisville, at -2.0, but at least the Cardinals were consistent — they finished 126th in finishing drives (offense), and 126th in finishing drives (defense). Louisville’s scoring margin from 2017 to 2018 dropped by an incredible 35 points per game, a monumental collapse.

—

Turnovers

First, a table of the actual turnovers:

The Citadel Opponent Margin
Home 7 2 -5
Road 4 10 6
Total 11 12 1

This was the second year in a row the Bulldogs didn’t fare well at home in the turnover department.

The next table is the “adjusted” or “expected” turnovers:

The Citadel Opponent Margin
Home 6.04 3.82 -2.22
Road 5.70 8.02 2.32
Total 11.74 11.84 0.10

As mentioned in previous posts, the expected turnovers statistic is based on A) the fact that recovering fumbles is usually a 50-50 proposition, and B) a little over 1/5 of passes that are “defensed” are intercepted. The “passes defensed” interception rate is calculated at 22%.

Essentially, The Citadel’s turnover margin was almost exactly what you would expect it to be. There was a bit of “turnover luck” both at home and on the road, but it all canceled out in the end.

The luckiest FBS team by far, at least in terms of turnovers, was Kansas — which makes one wonder how bad the 3-9 Jayhawks would have been if they hadn’t received a friendly roll of the dice when it came to takeaways.

Also fortunate in 2018: FIU, Maryland, Arizona State, and Georgia Tech. Among those teams not so lucky: ULM, Connecticut, UTEP, Tulane, Rutgers, and Florida State, with the Seminoles having the worst turnover luck in the country. Did I mention it was a tough year in Tallahassee?

—

How did The Citadel fare in the “Five Factors” head-to-head with each opponent in league play?

  • at Wofford: 2-3, with sizable edges in field position and turnovers, but a terrible efficiency number
  • Chattanooga: 2-3, again winning the field position battle, and with a slight edge in finishing drives
  • at Mercer: 2-3, coming out ahead in efficiency and turnover margin
  • ETSU: 1-4, with only an edge in finishing drives (though with most categories closely contested)
  • at VMI: 2-3, with an enormous edge in field position (and committing one fewer turnover)
  • Furman: 1-4, again having a field position edge, but not in front in any other category
  • at Western Carolina: 4-1, only trailing in explosiveness
  • Samford: 3-1-1 (neither team committed a turnover), with The Citadel playing its best 30 minutes of football all season in the 2nd half

—

There are three other statistical categories that I’ll mention here. All of them are included in tabs on the linked spreadsheet (and all reference SoCon games only).

-First down yardage gained per play-

The Citadel Opponent Margin
Home 6.50 5.59 0.91
Road 5.00 5.95 -0.45
Avg. 6.01 5.78 0.23
  • The Citadel’s offense averaged 6.21 yards on first down in 2016
  • The Citadel’s offense averaged 5.83 yards on first down in 2017
  • The Citadel’s offense averaged 6.01 yards on first down in 2018

In 2017, the margin in this category was -0.23; last year, it flipped (in a good way) in the other direction. The Bulldogs’ first-down defense was better on the road in 2018 than it had been the previous season.

—

-3rd down distance to gain (in yards)-

The Citadel Opponent Margin
Home 5.99 8.68 2.69
Road 6.09 7.85 1.76
Avg. 6.04 8.28 2.24

The margin in 2017 was 1.64, while it was 2.49 in 2016. Thus, last year was a nice rebound, but there is room for improvement.

In FBS, Army’s offense averaged 5.4 yards to go on third down, best in the nation. Army’s opponents averaged 8.4 yards to go on third down, also best in the nation.

In related news, Army won 11 games last season.

—

Definition of “passing downs”: 2nd down and 8 yards or more to go for a first down, 3rd/4th down and 5 yards or more to go for a first down

-Passing down success rate: offense-

Rushes Pass Attempts Success rate
Home 62 23 20.00%
Road 71 12 19.28%
Total 133 35 19.64%

Last season, the Bulldogs ran the ball 79.2% of the time on “passing downs”, a dramatic increase from 2017 (65.6%), and actually a higher percentage than in 2016 (75.6%). The success rate declined by more than ten percentage points, though.

I think this is an area that needs work. I will say that the emphasis on running the ball on passing downs — even more so than might be expected from a triple option team — may at least in part have been an attempt to position the offense for a more manageable 3rd-down or 4th-down play. This is not a bad idea (Army last year was extremely effective with a similar philosophy).

Still, that success rate has to increase.

-Passing down success rate: defense-

Rushes Pass Attempts Success rate
Home 36 62 30.61%
Road 31 66 29.90%
Total 67 128 30.26%

This isn’t bad; the passing attempts success rate against the Bulldogs’ D was 32.0%. That 26.8% success rate for opponents when running the ball on passing downs was too high, though.

—

No matter how “advanced” the statistics are now or might become in the future, the essence of football remains the same. Run. Throw. Catch. Block. Tackle. Kick.

That is why people love watching the game. It was true 100 years ago, and it is still true today.

It is almost time for another season. It cannot come soon enough.

Filed under: Football, The Citadel | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

Next Page »