McAlister Musings, 2017-18: Time for some really fast hoops (hopefully with winning involved)

Posted on November 8, 2017 by Sandlapper Spike

Links of interest:

– Season preview, The Post and Courier

– Bulldogs add freshmen to mix

– School website preview

– League preview, The Post and Courier (The Citadel is picked to finish 7th in the SoCon, out of 10 teams)

– Preseason league polls and preseason all-SoCon team (The Citadel is tied for 7th in the coaches’ poll and 8th in the media poll)

– NBC Sports league preview (The Citadel is picked to finish 9th)

– Blue Ribbon yearbook league preview [not online] (The Citadel is picked to finish 8th)

– CBS Sports all-Division I preseason rankings (The Citadel is picked 248th out of 351 D-1 teams, 7th in the SoCon)

– Kenpom.com preseason rankings (The Citadel is picked 247th out of 351 D-1 teams, 8th in the SoCon)

– ESPN “BPI” preseason rankings (The Citadel is picked 243rd out of 351 D-1 teams, 7th in the SoCon)

– 2017-18 schedule

– 2017-18 “Quick Facts”

– 2017-18 “Hype Video”

– Box score of exhibition game at Lenoir-Rhyne (The Citadel lost 97-83)

– Box score of exhibition game versus Coker (The Citadel won 122-98)

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Hey, it’s time for basketball!

 

No, seriously, it is!

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This isn’t really a detailed preview. It is more just an acknowledgement that the season is starting.

A few quick points:

– The Citadel isn’t picked last in the league in any preseason poll, and is generally slotted in the 7-8 range (out of 10 SoCon teams). That’s a step up from recent seasons.

– While the team will still be quite young (no seniors), and a lot of freshmen are on the scene (six), there is actually a lot of returning experience.

When taking into account last year’s numbers, here is what The Citadel has coming back in terms of the various statistical categories, by percentage:

  • Starts: 70.3%
  • Minutes: 69.5%
  • Field goal attempts: 75.6%
  • 3-point field goal attempts: 79.0%
  • Free throw attempts: 75.3%
  • Offensive rebounds: 75.7%
  • Defensive rebounds: 68.6%
  • Total rebounds: 71.2%
  • Fouls: 68.4%
  • Assists: 71.8%
  • Blocks: 64.7%
  • Steals: 73.9%
  • Points: 74.8%

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From the school preview release:

Last season, the Bulldogs played at a fast pace and scored in bunches, leading the nation in points per game and ranking in the top-10 in the nation in six other statistical categories. This year, head coach Duggar Baucom wants his young squad to move even faster and score even more.

“We’re going to try to play a little bit faster than we did last season. Last year, we isolated players a little bit more, forcing them to create their own shots, but this year we’re hoping that the offense will create shots for the players,” Baucom said. “The players are getting used to it. It’s a little bit of a style change for the guys who were here last year, but hopefully it will help us play faster and score some more points.”

If The Citadel is really going to play faster this season, that is going to be noteworthy.

Last year, the Bulldogs were second nationally in both adjusted and raw tempo, averaging a shade over 80 possessions per game. I don’t know what Baucom has in mind in terms of a possessions per game average, but he hasn’t had a team with an adjusted tempo significantly higher than last season’s outfit since 2010 (when his VMI team averaged 85 possessions per game).

Baucom’s 2007 squad at VMI is the last Division I team to average over 90 possessions per game against D-1 opponents. That team lost 19 games but also got to the final of the Big South tournament, after the coach “dialed down” the pace during the conference tourney.

If The Citadel could come even close to replicating the pace of the 2007 Keydets with the current talent on the Bulldog roster, that might really be something to watch.

It could be wildly exciting. It could also be a train wreck.

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Early-season schedule (first three games)…

– Oglethorpe, November 10 at McAlister Field House, 3:00 pm (SoCon Digital Network)

Oglethorpe is a Division III school located in north Atlanta that went 10-16 last season. The team nickname is the Stormy Petrels, a truly excellent moniker.

While it is a regular season game for The Citadel, it is actually considered an exhibition matchup for Oglethorpe. Yes, that is a bit confusing, but not particularly unusual.

The Stormy Petrels did not play a D-1 school last season, and last faced a team in that division during the 2015-16 campaign, when they played Georgia State (another example of a regular season game for the D-1 team, but an exhibition for Oglethorpe). Georgia State won that contest 85-34.

During the 2012-13 season, Oglethorpe (which was 17-10 that year) played Mercer and lost 70-25 in another regular season/exhibition matchup.

– Virginia Tech, November 12 at Cassell Coliseum in Blacksburg, VA, 7:00 pm (ACC Digital Network)

The Hokies defeated The Citadel 113-71 last season in Blacksburg, one of the 22 wins Virginia Tech had en route to an NCAA tournament appearance. Buzz Williams should have another good team again this season, despite losing the two top scorers off that squad.

Most outlets believe the Hokies will finish in the top half of the ACC. The Blue Ribbon yearbook gave VT a #25 preseason national ranking.

While Virginia Tech’s adjusted tempo in 2016-17 hovered around the national average, the Hokies were more than happy to run with the Bulldogs in last year’s matchup. Virginia Tech had 89 possessions in the contest, the most it had in any game.

The Hokies open this season on Friday with a home game versus Detroit. As for the contest against The Citadel, Kenpom projects Virginia Tech to win 100-80, with the Bulldogs given a 4% chance of pulling the upset.

– North Carolina A&T, November 15 at Corbett Sports Center in Greensboro, NC, 7:00 pm

Simply put, the Aggies were one of the worst teams in Division I last season. North Carolina A&T won just three games all year (only one versus a D-1 opponent) and finished with an RPI of 350, next-to-last in the division.

However, this game won’t necessarily be easy for the Bulldogs. For one thing, the Aggies’ only D-1 win actually came against a very solid North Carolina Central squad that won the MEAC regular-season and tournament titles. Based on that result alone, there is clearly some talent on the roster.

Also, North Carolina A&T had three players sit out last season as transfers. All of them will be eligible to play this season, as will a graduate transfer from Georgia Southern, combo guard Devante Boykins.

On the other hand, last year’s leading scorer for the Aggies transferred to North Carolina State.

Before hosting The Citadel, North Carolina A&T will play at Clemson on November 12. It opens the season with a non-D1 game against Greensboro College.

Kenpom projects The Citadel to prevail by an 88-80 score, with a win probability of 77%.

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This could be a fun year for the Bulldogs. I’m ready for some hoops.

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McAlister Musings: Time to #EmbraceThePace as the season begins for The Citadel

Posted on November 13, 2015 by Sandlapper Spike

This is just a (very) short preview post for The Citadel’s 2015-16 basketball season. I’ll post more about the Bulldogs of the hardwood as the season progresses.

There has been a lot of interest (if not downright curiosity) in the upcoming campaign, as new coach Duggar Baucom prepares to unleash his specific brand of hoops mayhem.

I’m going to use this post to link to a bunch of stuff, including what I wrote when Baucom was hired by The Citadel in the spring:

Duggar Baucom is The Citadel’s new hoops coach. Is he the right choice?

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Other links of interest:

– Season preview from The Post and Courier

– “All access” with Duggar Baucom

– Story from The Post and Courier on the new style of play

– The Citadel picked to finish next-to-last in the SoCon by the coaches and media

– The Citadel shoots 67 three-pointers in exhibition victory over Erksine

– Box score from the Erskine game

– The Duggar Baucom Show (11/12 episode)

– Bulldogs ink pair of new recruits

– Game notes for The Citadel and Butler

– Butler coach Chris Holtmann talks about the game versus The Citadel

– Preview of The Citadel-Butler from The Indianapolis Star (includes the oft-repeated salt shakers story)

– The Citadel’s 2015-16 roster

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Let’s talk about that recent game The Citadel played against Erskine…

Sure, it was just an exhibition game against a largely overmatched Division II opponent, but still. The Citadel attempted 67 three-pointers. 67.

The Bulldogs only made 21 of them, though (31.3%). On the bright side, The Citadel collected 22 offensive rebounds (off 57 opportunities from missed FGs/FTs).

According to Duggar Baucom on his coach’s show, taking that many shots from beyond the arc won’t be commonplace (“that was…not by design, for sure”) but he also said The Citadel would probably shoot more three-pointers than any team in the country.

That is easy to believe. Baucom’s VMI team last year led the nation in three-point attempts, averaging almost 36 shots from 3-land per game. No other D1 squad averaged as many as 28 three-point attempts per contest.

The pace of the game against Erskine was as advertised. In the first half, the Bulldogs had 50 possessions. In the second half, things got a little slower; The Citadel only had 44 possessions in that frame.

It is unlikely that the Bulldogs will play a 94-possession game against a D1 opponent this season, at least in a regulation 40 minutes (VMI had a 94-possession game versus Western Carolina last season, but that one went 2OT). However, if The Citadel were to routinely average 85 possessions per game, it would almost certainly lead D1 in that category.

Do I think the Bulldogs will average 85 possessions per game? No. I could see 80, though.

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Butler may be the best team The Citadel will play in 2015-16, though there is just a dash of faint praise in that statement. After all, the Bulldogs’ non-conference schedule includes no teams from power 5 conferences (possibly the only D1 school for which that will be the case this season), not to mention 3 non-D1 squads.

Regardless, the Indianapolis Bulldogs should be very good, with preseason rankings of #22 (USA Today Coaches’ Poll) and #24 (AP Poll). Butler was picked to finish third in the Big East preseason voting (behind Villanova and Georgetown).

Butler has several excellent players, particularly Kellen Dunham and Roosevelt Jones, both preseason all-Big East selections. Last year, BU advanced to the round of 32 of the NCAA tournament, beating Texas before losing to Notre Dame.

In 2015-16, Chris Holtmann’s squad was one of the best defensive teams in the nation (7th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per kenpom.com). Butler was very good at preventing offensive rebounds and defending the perimeter (opponents only shot 30.7% from beyond the arc).

On offense, BU was a good offensive rebounding team that took care of the basketball, and did a decent job at getting to the foul line.

According to kenpom.com, Butler has a 99% probability of defeating The Citadel on Saturday, with a projected score of 91-62 (and a possessions estimate of 74).

The game will be televised on Fox Sports 2 (7:30 pm ET), with Alex Faust handling play-by-play and Dickey Simpkins supplying the analysis.

If you’re driving back from Chattanooga and want to listen to the game on the radio, it will be on 1450 AM. Ted Byrne will call the game from Indianapolis for the Bulldogs (since Mike Legg will be at the football game).

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I don’t expect The Citadel to have a winning season in 2015-16, or to even be in the vicinity of a .500 record. This is a year for implementing Duggar Baucom’s system, and generating just a little bit of buzz.

Normally I would complain about a couple of things, like the Charmin-soft schedule and some aspects of the roster turnover, but I also understand what is behind both of those issues, and am willing to be patient.

I am glad to see a renewed emphasis on basketball at the military college. That includes three “Pack the Mac” events this season, the first of which is the home opener next week against Stetson.

Things should be entertaining at McAlister Field House this winter, and you can see the action unfold even if you can’t make it to campus. All of the home games will be on ESPN3.

I’m ready for a little roundball.

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