Schedule analysis: Which teams will The Citadel’s opponents face before playing the Bulldogs? What about afterwards? Sandwich games? Look-aheads?

Sometimes, the schedule works in your favor, and sometimes it doesn’t. For this post, I’m going to review the games teams play the week before facing The Citadel…and what they have lined up the following week…and well, a few other games along the way.

Are there “look ahead” games? What about “sandwich” games? Does anyone have a bye week before playing the Bulldogs?

Let’s check it out.

August 30 — North Dakota State at The Citadel, noon ET

It is the season opener for both teams, so there are obviously no games the week before for either squad. In last year’s finale, The Citadel rolled up 288 yards rushing against ACC champ Clemson, while North Dakota State won its final contest of the season by three points.

The week after facing The Citadel, NDSU is on the road again, heading to Nashville to take on Tennessee State. The Tigers made the playoffs last year, but have since lost head coach Eddie George (who took the Bowling Green job in the spring) and a sizable chunk of the postseason roster. At least one statistics maven has asserted that TSU ranks last in returning production among all FCS teams.

NDSU debuts at home on September 13 against Southeast Missouri State, then has a bye before beginning MVFC play on September 27 with a Homecoming matchup versus South Dakota (which defeated the Bison last year).

September 6 — The Citadel at Samford, 3:30 pm ET

Samford hosts West Georgia on Thursday, August 28, so SU will get two extra days of preparation before facing The Citadel in the league opener for both teams (and has the added benefit of staying at home). Don’t expect Samford to look past West Georgia, however, as the Wolves upset the Birmingham Bulldogs last season. That was actually WGU’s first game as an FCS team.

After playing The Citadel, Samford will travel to Waco for a matchup against Baylor and its highly regarded quarterback, Sawyer Robertson. That will be a very difficult road opener, and is the first of two straight games away from home for SU, which faces Western Carolina in Cullowhee on September 20.

Samford’s final road game of the year, by the way, is also against a Power 4 opponent from the state of Texas, as SU plays at Texas A&M on November 22.

September 13 — The Citadel at Gardner-Webb, 7:00 pm ET

Gardner-Webb has one of the tougher stretches to begin the year in all of FCS.

G-W opens at Western Carolina, which is ranked 18th in the Stats Perform Top 25 Preseason Poll. The Runnin’ Bulldogs then travel to Atlanta to face Georgia Tech, which was picked 4th in the ACC preseason poll.

That is the game Gardner-Webb will play before its matchup with The Citadel, and will be a stern test, though it is worth noting that the Yellow Jackets have a recent history of struggling against FCS opponents nicknamed Bulldogs.

The week after hosting The Citadel, Gardner-Webb has a second FBS game, making the trip up north to tangle with defending MAC champion Ohio.

After a bye week, G-W finally begins conference play on October 4 with a home game versus Charleston Southern. I’m mentioning this mostly because that game has recently been dubbed the “BBQ Bowl“:

The Runnin’ Bulldogs and the Buccaneers will compete annually for bragging rights and the North-South BBQ Trophy, which features a hefty hog adorned with a placard to engrave each year’s winning team and score.

Most importantly, the losing team will be tasked with supplying a barbecue feast to the winning side — North Carolina-style (Western BBQ, of course) or South Carolina-style, as chosen by the victors.

Presumably, the winning team will choose South Carolina-style BBQ, regardless of which squad wins the game.

September 20 — Mercer at The Citadel, 2:00 pm ET (Parents’ Weekend)

Mercer, the preseason SoCon favorite, has a fairly weird start to the season. The Bears will face UC Davis of the Big Sky in Week 0 (on August 23), playing in the FCS Kickoff game at the Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama. Both teams are ranked in the Stats Perform preseason poll (UC Davis is 8th, Mercer 11th). That game will be televised on ESPN at 7:00 pm ET, which won’t be bad at all in terms of exposure.

The following week, Mercer hosts Presbyterian. The Bears then have a bye week before beginning league play with a home game versus Wofford. The following week, Mercer travels to Charleston to face the Bulldogs.

After the game against The Citadel, Mercer stays on the road to play East Tennessee State before returning to Macon to meet Samford. Then, on October 11, Mercer plays Princeton in New Jersey, trying to become the second SoCon team to win at Powers Field. MU has a second bye after that game (getting an extra bye as a result of playing on Week 0).

September 27 — The Citadel at Chattanooga, 6:00 pm ET

Chattanooga has a tough schedule, kind of low-key in a way, but demanding nonetheless. The Mocs open the season at Memphis, and then play another road game at Tennessee Tech. The Golden Eagles won 7 games last year, including their last five, and are ranked #21 in the Stats Perform preseason poll.

After its home opener against Stetson, which should be a bit of a breather (but you never know), Chattanooga has another road game against a team ranked in the preseason poll, Tarleton State (#10). If you are unfamiliar with Tarleton State, don’t be too upset, as the Texans have only been in FCS since 2020. Despite just arriving in Division I, however, TSU’s power brokers already have designs on a spot in FBS.

Chattanooga hosts The Citadel the week following its game at Tarleton State. The Mocs then play at VMI, facing military schools in consecutive weeks, before a bye week that will probably be much-needed.

October 4 — Bye Week for The Citadel

The Citadel is the only SoCon team not playing on October 4.

Without the Bulldogs in the mix, what are your viewing options? It is hard to imagine watching football if The Citadel isn’t involved, so I would recommend making vacation plans of some kind, perhaps an overseas trip.

If you really insist on watching some pigskin, though, here is a list of some of the FBS games which will be played on October 4:

  • Miami (FL) at Florida State
  • Clemson at North Carolina
  • Vanderbilt at Alabama
  • Texas at Florida
  • Wisconsin at Michigan
  • Minnesota at Ohio State
  • Kansas State at Baylor
  • Texas Tech at Houston
  • Air Force at Navy
  • Boise State at Notre Dame

Among the teams also on a bye for the week: South Carolina, Auburn, LSU, Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi, Tennessee, Georgia Tech, Oregon, Southern California, Iowa, Arizona State, and Utah.

So yes, October 4 is a fairly popular bye week.

October 11 — Valdosta State at The Citadel, 2:00 pm ET (Hall of Fame Weekend/Military Appreciation Day)

I’m still not sure why The Citadel decided to schedule a non-conference game against last year’s Division II national runner-up; it just seems to me that if another home game was desired (laudable) and only non-D1 options were on the table (okay, whatever), settling on a mid-season game against a program as historically successful as the Blazers wasn’t really the way to go.

That was under the previous athletics administration, to be sure.

At any rate, Valdosta State (which has a new coach and a revamped roster) will face The Citadel after playing two straight home games. Following a bye week, VSU hosts UNC Pembroke on September 27, and then Lenoir-Rhyne the week before playing the Bulldogs. The Blazers shouldn’t be looking past either of those squads, particularly Lenoir-Rhyne, which won 10 games last season and made it to the second round of the D-2 playoffs.

That said, neither of those games is a conference matchup, as VSU hardly has any conference matchups. Due to a mass exodus of schools after last season, the Gulf South Conference only has four football-playing members for the 2025 campaign. As a result, Valdosta State won’t play a league contest until November 1 against West Alabama — its first of just three conference games.

Following its game against The Citadel, VSU will have another bye week before hosting North Greenville for Homecoming, its seventh (and final) non-conference matchup of the season.

October 18 — Western Carolina at The Citadel, 2:00 pm ET

I mentioned earlier that Western Carolina opens its season by hosting Gardner-Webb. The next week, WCU plays at Wake Forest in one of the more interesting FCS-over-FBS possibilities on the September slate.

The Catamounts also have non-conference games in September against Elon (at home) and Campbell (on the road).

Prior to its matchup at The Citadel, Western Carolina hosts Furman. In fact, WCU will play all three South Carolina-based SoCon schools in consecutive weeks, as the Catamounts are at Wofford the week before facing the Paladins.

Following the game versus the Bulldogs, WCU has a bye week, and then finishes the regular-season campaign with contests against Chattanooga, Mercer, East Tennessee State, and VMI (the first and last of those being road games).

October 25 — The Citadel at Furman, 2:00 pm ET

This matchup will be Furman’s Homecoming game, though FU will still have two home contests remaining after the contest. The Paladins are at Wofford the week before facing The Citadel, and host Mercer the week afterwards.

Furman then travels to Chattanooga before playing its final game at Paladin Stadium, this time against VMI. The Paladins finish the regular season at Clemson.

Furman’s bye week this year is rather early (September 20), so it will play nine straight weeks to close the campaign — eight consecutive league contests before the finale in Death Valley.

The Paladins have three non-conference games besides the Clemson matchup, and they are also Furman’s first three contests of the season. FU has home games versus William & Mary and Presbyterian and a road trip to play Campbell.

November 1 — VMI at The Citadel, 2:00 pm ET (Military Classic of the South)

The Keydets open the season with all four of their non-conference games, three of which are on the road (Navy, Bucknell, and Richmond). VMI’s one non-league home contest is a matchup with Ferrum (a D2 school). It then enjoys a bye week on September 27 before beginning SoCon action.

VMI’s game against The Citadel is the second of two straight road contests for the Keydets. The week before playing the Bulldogs, VMI travels to Mercer.

The following week is Military Appreciation Day in Lexington, Virginia, and the Keydets are hosting Wofford. They will then play at Furman, another instance of a team playing three consecutive matchups against the SoCon’s Palmetto State trio.

VMI will then conclude regular-season play with a home game versus Western Carolina.

November 8 — The Citadel at Mississippi, 1:00 pm ET

As mentioned above, Mississippi has a bye week on October 4, just like The Citadel.

Mississippi’s other three non-conference games are against Georgia State (the season opener), Tulane, and Washington State. All of those are also in Oxford. Mississippi thus has eight home games this season, including three of its last four regular-season contests.

Oh, but that closing stretch. The Citadel is a “sandwich” game for the Rebels, with Mississippi hosting South Carolina the week before and Florida the week afterwards. Following the game against the Gators, the Rebels have another bye week before facing Mississippi State in Starkville in the Egg Bowl.

Prior to that home game versus the Gamecocks, Mississippi has two road games — at Georgia and at Oklahoma.

November 15 — Wofford at The Citadel, 2:00 pm ET (Homecoming)

Wofford opens the season in Orangeburg against South Carolina State, and then hosts Richmond. After beginning SoCon play the following week at Mercer, the Terriers make the journey to Blacksburg to face Virginia Tech (the Mike Young Invitational).

All of Wofford’s games after its September 27 bye week are league affairs except one, an October 11 matchup against Michael Vick’s Norfolk State squad (kind of a Virginia Tech theme here). That game is Homecoming for the Terriers.

Before facing The Citadel, Wofford travels to VMI, so the Terriers get the military schools back-to-back. After playing the Bulldogs, Wofford finishes the regular season with a home game versus Chattanooga.

November 22 — The Citadel at East Tennessee State, 1:00 pm ET

The Buccaneers start the season with four non-conference games, hosting Murray State in the opener before making the trek to Knoxville to do battle with Tennessee. ETSU then plays at West Georgia before a home game versus Elon.

East Tennessee State has a late bye week, not taking a break until November 1; the week before, it has a Homecoming game versus Wofford.

ETSU then finishes the regular season with two road games against Samford and Western Carolina before hosting The Citadel.

There you have it. None of The Citadel’s opponents has a bye week before playing The Citadel, though Samford does have those aforementioned two extra days of prep because its opener is on a Thursday.

On the other side of the equation, the Bulldogs’ one “rest” advantage is against a non-conference opponent, so none of its SoCon competitors are affected.

Two of The Citadel’s opponents have a bye week after playing the Bulldogs — Valdosta State and Western Carolina.

The Citadel has two home games against teams that play a road game before facing the Bulldogs at Johnson Hagood Stadium — VMI and Wofford.

The Bulldogs face two squads that play at home before also hosting The Citadel — Samford and Mississippi.

Basically, there are no real scheduling breaks in either direction. It is just a very tough slate.

Football attendance review: Johnson Hagood Stadium, the SoCon, and FCS in general

This post is primarily about home attendance at The Citadel, which is a subject I’ve written about many, many times over the years. My first post on the subject was in 2009. What can I say, I’m old.

I used to write about attendance every single year, but then 2020 happened and, well…

The first part of this post is a bit of a cut-and-paste job from previous writeups on this topic, along with new and updated information. I’ve updated the original spreadsheet, and also included some new spreadsheets for the SoCon, along with a brief review of FCS as a whole.

Here is a spreadsheet that includes attendance information for The Citadel at Johnson Hagood Stadium:

Annual attendance at Johnson Hagood Stadium, 1964-2024

The spreadsheet tracks attendance for The Citadel’s home football games and has now been updated to include games through the 2024 season. It lists year-by-year totals and average game attendance, and the win/loss record for the Bulldogs in each season. There is also a category ranking the years by average attendance.

I have also included home win/loss records for each season.

The 2020 season includes the four games played in the fall of 2020 (one of which was at home) and the eight contests played in the spring of 2021 (four of which took place at JHS). The games referenced on the spreadsheet for the 2021 campaign are only those that were played in the fall (technically some of them took place in late summer, but you know what I mean).

Other columns refer to the program’s winning percentage over a two-year, three-year, five-year, and ten-year period, with the “current” season being the final year in each category. For example, the three-year winning percentage for 1970 (54.84%) is made up of the 1968, 1969, and 1970 seasons.

I include those categories mainly to see what impact, if any, constant winning (or losing) has had on long-term attendance trends.

I have also compared average attendance for the first two games of a season to the last two contests of the same campaign, going back to the 2009 season. There are inherent sample-size issues when making such a comparison (weather, stadium construction [or deconstruction], opponent fan base, etc.), but it doesn’t hurt to see how things have shaken out. The fall 2020/spring 2021 sort-of-season is not included below, for obvious reasons.

  • 2009 [4-7 overall record]; First two home games, average attendance of 13,636; final two home games, average attendance of 11,736 (including Homecoming)
  • 2010 [3-8 overall record]; First two home games, average attendance of 10,904; final two home games, average attendance of 11,805 (including Homecoming)
  • 2011 [4-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 12,756; final two home games, average attendance of 12,387 (including Homecoming)
  • 2012 [7-4 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 13,281; final two home games, average attendance of 13,715 (including Homecoming)
  • 2013 [5-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 13,370; final two home games, average attendance of 12,948 (including Homecoming)
  • 2014 [5-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 9,700; final two home games, average attendance of 9,563 (including Homecoming)
  • 2015 [9-4 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 8,356; final two home games, average attendance of 12,465 (including Homecoming)
  • 2016 [10-2 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 13,299; final two regular-season home games, average attendance of 13,996 (including Homecoming); playoff game attendance of 10,336
  • 2017 [5-6 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 8,718; final two home games, average attendance of 9,496 (including Homecoming)
  • 2018 [5-6 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 9,559; final two home games, average attendance of 9,511 (including Homecoming and a rescheduled game)
  • 2019 [6-6 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 8,517; final two home games, average attendance of 9,141 (including Homecoming)
  • 2021 [4-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 9,503; final two home games, average attendance of 10,189 (including Homecoming)
  • 2022 [4-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 10,339 (including Parents’ Day); final two home games, average attendance of 10,022 (including Homecoming and a game against a non-NCAA/NAIA opponent)
  • 2023 [0-11 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 10,882 (including Parents’ Day); final two home games, average attendance of 11,016 (including Homecoming)
  • 2024: [5-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 9,723; final two home games, average attendance of 10,745 (including Homecoming)

Since 1964, the Bulldogs’ record at Johnson Hagood Stadium is 200-139 (59.0%). The average home attendance over that time period is 13,492. However, there has not been a season in which home attendance averaged more than 13,492 since 2012.

The current stadium capacity is less than 12,000, due to the demolition of the East stands in the spring of 2017. Thus, The Citadel will not see an increase in attendance to the levels of the early part of this century anytime in the near future (and if Charleston’s Board of Architectural Review, heavily influenced by NIMBY-ism, continues to hold up the process, the school might not get to replace the East stands until the sun turns red).

The higher attendance figures for the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s are even further out of sight.

Last year’s average home attendance of 10,225 ranked 52nd out of the 61 seasons included in this survey. The five lowest season averages in attendance have all occurred since 2014.

As always, I need to point out that the cutoff for accuracy in attendance numbers means years like 1959 (eight wins), 1960 (Tangerine Bowl victory), and 1961 (SoCon title) cannot be included for comparison in this review, not to mention any of the other years from 1948, when the most recent iteration of Johnson Hagood Stadium opened, through the 1963 season. I do not have a high degree of confidence in any “public” season attendance figures prior to 1964. ( A few skeptics might suggest I shouldn’t have a large amount of confidence in some of the numbers post-1964, either.)

It is generally accepted that the largest home attendance for The Citadel at any pre-1964 contest was for the Homecoming game against Clemson in 1948, when an estimated 16,000 fans were present for the dedication of the “new” Johnson Hagood Stadium. It is likely that more than twenty years passed before the stadium had a game attendance higher than that (when 19,276 fans attended the home opener in 1969, a 14-10 victory for Red Parker’s Bulldogs over Arkansas State).

Here are the top average attendance marks over two-year, three-year, five-year, and ten-year periods:

  • Two years: 1975-76 (18,250). Rest of the top five: 1991-92, 1979-80, 1990-91, 1989-90
  • Three years: 1990-92 (17,457). Rest of the top five: 1989-91, 1978-80, 1991-93, 1975-77
  • Five years: 1988-92 (17,126). Rest of the top five: 1989-93, 1975-79, 1976-80, 1990-94
  • Ten years: 1975-84 (16,250). Rest of the top five: 1983-92, 1974-83, 1976-85, 1984-93

Average attendance by decade:

  • 1964-69: 11,998
  • 1970-79: 15,053
  • 1980-89: 15,398
  • 1990-99: 14,955
  • 2000-09: 13,850
  • 2010-19: 11,179
  • 2020-24: 8,910

The 2020-24 period includes the 2020-21 home games. If those are discounted (as they probably should be for this exercise), the average attendance so far this decade is 10,254.

I’ll throw in this spreadsheet as well, which charts Homecoming games at The Citadel since the first such contest in 1924. It includes attendance for all but three of those games (and every game since 1960), so it is somewhat applicable for this post.

Since 1960, The Citadel has had at least 10,000 fans in attendance for Homecoming for every game except one (8,500 for a matchup against Furman in 1965). The record for Homecoming attendance is 21,811, set in 1992 when the Bulldogs played VMI.

Homecoming at The Citadel, 1924-2024

Now let’s take a look at the SoCon.

Here is a spreadsheet that lists the attendance numbers for all SoCon games (conference matchups only) in 2024:

2024 SoCon attendance (league games only)

(The formatting might not be ideal, but it gets the job done; at least, I hope it does.)

Last season, Chattanooga was the top overall road draw in league play. In four road games, the Mocs played before crowds averaging 10,293. Those numbers were buoyed by the location of those four contests, with the host schools being The Citadel, Furman, ETSU, and Western Carolina. Those four ranked 1-2-4-5 in home attendance for conference games.

Conversely, Mercer ranked last as a road draw, with an average of 4,171.5 fans, thanks almost entirely to playing away from home against Chattanooga, VMI, Samford, and Wofford, the four schools that made up the bottom half of the league in conference home attendance (with the Terriers bringing up the rear with an average of 3,589 fans per league matchup).

In 2022, Chattanooga played the same four teams on the road, and was the league’s road draw leader. That same year, Mercer was last as a road draw, playing the same four opponents as it did last season. In other words, the numbers probably say more about the teams they played than the Mocs and Bears.

There are a couple of things to note for 2024. Two games are not part of the home league attendance totals, due to the impact of Hurricane Helene. Furman’s home game against Samford was postponed and ultimately canceled, while Western Carolina’s home matchup versus Wofford was played before no fans (due to ongoing rescue and recovery efforts in that region).

The highest-attended league game in 2024 was Western Carolina’s home finale against VMI, with 13,022 spectators.

The lowest-attended league game (not counting the Wofford-WCU matchup referenced earlier) was, by far, Wofford’s home game versus Mercer on September 28, with an announced attendance of 1,219. Both teams were ranked at the time, and the box score listed the weather as “sunny”.

[Edit: a comment for this post alerted me to the fact that Mercer-Wofford was yet another game affected by Hurricane Helene. The surrounding area was mostly without power, traffic lights were down, and there were long lines for gasoline as well. We’ll give the Wofford community a mulligan for that one.]

The attendance for some of these games, particular those at Wofford, inspired me to compile another chart, this one listing attendance for The Citadel’s road matchups against current SoCon schools. I decided to start with the 1997 season, which was Wofford’s first as a league member (and was also the first year Chattanooga played in Finley Stadium).

Road attendance in The Citadel’s games against current SoCon schools, 1997-2024

The above spreadsheet doesn’t feature all of the Bulldogs’ league road games over that time period, of course, as it doesn’t include former SoCon members Appalachian State, Elon, Georgia Southern, and Marshall. It also lists games at VMI when that school was not in the conference.

Some of these totals have been fairly consistent over time (the games at VMI, for example), but there has been variance over the years, and there has also been a decline in attendance in some places. The last two games the Bulldogs have played against Wofford have been noteworthy in that regard.

I’m not sure what to make of that, particularly when The Citadel has been the best “traveling” fan base in the SoCon over the last decade and a half (a subject I wrote about a few years ago). How much of that has to do with The Citadel? What about the home support?

Perhaps it just comes down to philosophical changes in how to count attendance by certain school administrations. The long-term effect of COVID-19 probably needs to be considered, as well, at least when it comes to how people now allocate leisure time. I have to wonder if there is a difference between FBS and FCS in that respect — but to be honest, I don’t really have any idea.

In 2016, the SoCon average attendance (all home games, league and out-of-conference) was 8,386. Last season, it was 8,169. That isn’t a big difference, so alarm bells shouldn’t be going off around the league. It is something worth monitoring, though.

Finally, a brief look at FCS attendance. I wrote a lot on this subject two years ago. I’m not going over all that ground again, but I would like to make a few observations about the 2024 campaign from an attendance perspective.

Here is a spreadsheet that includes FCS home attendance for 2024:

FCS home attendance 2024

There are various columns on that spreadsheet besides the breakdown of 2024 attendance. I also included a column for 2023 average attendance, the average attendance for the 2012-2022 period (excluding fall 2020/spring 2021, and only listing the schools that were continuously in the subdivision during that time frame), and columns comparing the differential between attendance for 2012-2022 and the last two seasons.

Jackson State and Montana were 1-2 in attendance in 2024. Those two schools have occupied the top two places for most of the last decade.

The list includes two schools no longer in FCS as of 2025 (Delaware and Missouri State) and several schools that are recent entrants in the subdivision.

There were 25 FCS schools that averaged over 10,000 in home attendance last season. Of those, according to the participation release from the College Sports Commission, all opted in to the House settlement except for Holy Cross, Harvard, The Citadel, Idaho, and UC Davis.

On the other hand, 15 FCS schools averaged fewer than 2,500 fans per home game, with subdivision debutant Mercyhurst bringing up the rear (1,183 per game in four home contests).

Okay, I think that is enough about attendance for now. Soon, there will be 2025 attendance figures to discuss…

The Citadel’s “crossroads” moment — a review with commentary

This post basically serves to review and comment on an article published in The Post and Courier on Saturday, October 12. The writer of the story is Andrew Miller, regular P+C beat writer for The Citadel’s football program.

I appreciated this article. I don’t necessarily agree with everything stated in the piece, though most of those points of contention emanate from people quoted in the story, not Miller himself. I do quibble with certain aspects of the article that I think needed to include alternative, on-record opinions. There was also one “factoid” in the piece which was monumentally misleading. I’ll address that later.

Having said that, I was glad to see the feature published. It brings up multiple issues facing The Citadel and its department of athletics, all of which richly deserve public scrutiny.

I would encourage anyone at all interested in The Citadel to read the article.

I’ll break down my commentary by each portion of the story (excluding the introductory section).

The bottom line

The athletic department is projected to lose nearly $2 million this year…[Operating expenses] in the 2021-22 academic year amounted to $3.2 million. The projected operational budget for this year is expected to be $5.5 million, or an increase of 71 percent.

To make ends meet, the budget was cut by 10 percent with reductions in scholarships for the current season, according to an athletic department source.

“We’re having to cut expenses and scholarships,” the source said.

The football team’s operating budget, which does not include scholarships, was cut $200,000 to $1 million. It also lost the equivalent of 2½ scholarships.

The basketball team experienced a similar fate, another source said.

But according to Walters, there have been no budget or scholarship cuts.

The school is projected to spend $4.7 million on scholarships this year, having spent $4.1 million in 2022 and 2023, Walters said.

“The coaches have a budget, and they have to manage that budget, but we need to give them more tools to help them out,” Walters said.

Two different sources told Andrew Miller that the department of athletics is undergoing budget and scholarship cuts — but this was denied by Gen. Walters. That is more than a little curious.

Along those lines, there is something else worth noting that is not in the article.

If you go to the webpage for The Citadel’s Procurement Services Department, you will find a link to the school’s “Awards” site for procurement. This includes solicitations, sole sources, and the occasional emergency purchase.

It can be an interesting site to follow. Those perusing the page will see that The Citadel has a sole source justification for SoCon-mandated baseballs, for example, and will notice that the league also requires a specific vendor for video database and data analysis software.

The site also has a link to a sole source for a “Financial Consultant”. The advertisement for this sole source was posted on June 13 (expiring two weeks later). The school listed a potential contract amount of $250,000 (over the course of one year) for “a financial consultant to advise and assist in financial planning.”

That is a very generic description, but the person named as the sole source, Rick Kelly, is not generic at all. He is a former executive director of the S.C. Budget and Control Board, and later served as the Chief Financial Officer at the University of South Carolina. Kelly is an auditor by trade and has actually been hired as a consultant by The Citadel before (in July of 2020).

It is my understanding that Kelly recently completed an audit of The Citadel’s department of athletics, and that his findings are to be presented to the Board of Visitors in the near future — perhaps as soon as the BOV’s next scheduled meeting.

Revenue sources

Walters hopes to renew a series of outdoor concerts at Johnson Hagood Stadium, which had been put on hold after complaints by local residents who feared the added traffic and noise.

Then there’s naming rights to the playing field and stadium that could bring in money.

Remember, The Citadel was not successful in its June appeal to the City of Charleston’s Board of Zoning Appeals for approval for the outdoor series. The school was defeated by a combination of NIMBY-ism and an unfriendly zoning board (the vote was 7-0 against The Citadel).

Of course, the board couldn’t outright tell the military college that any concerts at Johnson Hagood Stadium are off the table. Otherwise, other neighborhoods could presumably block similar events at venues all over the city (as The Citadel’s VP for communications noted in the linked article). However, it is reasonable to expect that the same people who opposed the concert series will continue to fight against any major events held at the stadium, so relying on that as a regular source of income might be a dicey proposition.

It seems to me that profiting off naming rights to the stadium would also be hard to accomplish. You can’t rename Johnson Hagood Stadium right now without violating the state’s Heritage Act (unless two-thirds of state lawmakers could be convinced to approve a name change; good luck with that).

Until or unless the Heritage Act is successfully challenged in court, I’m not sure what The Citadel can do. And even if that were to happen, it is possible potential candidates for naming rights (banks, grocery stores, etc.) would be hesitant to be the “replacement” name under those circumstances.

The NCAA settlement [the “House” case] and what it will mean for The Citadel has been one of the many reasons for the delay in finishing the east side stands at Johnson Hagood Stadium...But the pandemic and other delays, including funding for the $5 million project, have postponed construction.

Capaccio said he hopes to have the east side stands ready for the 2025 football season.

“We have more than $3 million on hand and more than enough pledges to cover the rest,” Walters said.

I would be very pleasantly surprised if the rebuilt East stands are ready by the time the 2025 football campaign rolls around. The first game of the season next year is a home game on August 30 against North Dakota State.

It would be nice if the stadium were ready when the Bison’s travelling supporters arrive in Charleston. I just find that timeline hard to believe, particularly given the history of the project. I will be happy if my skepticism is unfounded.

Another thing worth mentioning is that the phrase “many reasons for the delay” is doing a lot of work in that paragraph. There seems to be a lag of about a year in the overall approval process which cannot be easily explained by COVID-19, related construction issues, or general fundraising.

Moving on down

One of the biggest fears from alumni is that the administration and athletic department will grow weary of the constant losing and financial struggles and decide to drop down to Division II or even Division III, where no athletic scholarships are awarded, to save money and be more competitive…

Walters said there’s no plan to move down in classifications.

“Not on my watch,” he said. “We’re not going Division II.”

Here, at least, there appears to be near-unanimity on a topic, and I was glad to see it. Dropping down a division (or two) would be a terrible idea on a lot of levels, and also completely unnecessary.

Besides the likely exodus of donors mentioned in the story, Division III makes no sense from a geographic perspective. What schools would The Citadel even play? There are no D3 football schools in South Carolina. There are two in Georgia — Berry and LaGrange. The North Carolina institutions with D3 football programs are Brevard, Greensboro College, Guilford, Methodist, and North Carolina Wesleyan.

That obviously wouldn’t work for The Citadel.

As for Division II, I get the impression that more schools are trying to leave that tier than move to it. And here again, the list of local institutions in the division do not as a group “match up” with The Citadel from a historical or practical standpoint. (D2 football schools in South Carolina: Allen, Benedict, Erskine, Limestone, Newberry, North Greenville.)

In terms of dropping down, VMI actually did something similar (at least philosophically) at the beginning of the century when it left the SoCon to join the Big South. That move did not work out for the folks in Lexington, VA, and they were thrilled to be able to re-join the Southern Conference after a decade out in the cold.

Now, there is a facet to this worth discussing. It is possible that in the future The Citadel’s athletics programs could be in a tier called “Division II” that would actually mostly resemble the current Division I. If there is a breakaway from the NCAA of 20-40 schools (the inevitable “Superleague”) for football and a slightly larger number of institutions for basketball (50-70, perhaps), then the eventual NCAA setup could look like this (at least for football):

  • Division I — P4 schools left out of the Superleague, the majority of G5 schools, maybe a few FCS institutions with historic success and decent revenue potential (the Montana and Dakota schools, for example)
  • Division II — The vast majority of FCS, plus a few G5 schools that still want to play football but would not be in an ideal financial position in the new order of college athletics

There wouldn’t be any problem with The Citadel being in that type of Division II. It would still likely play the same schools as before. It is just a question of nomenclature. There would also be an opportunity to play the “Division I” schools, as is the case now.

In that system, schools could compete in a revised D1 in basketball, baseball, and any other sport in which they wished to do so, and the remainder of their varsity teams would play in a D2 with fewer financial and infrastructure commitments.

That could wind up being just fine for a school like The Citadel.

Transfer portal, NIL, and non-cadet athletes

I’m going to split this section, separating NIL from the other two listed issues.

As for NIL:

Some Citadel alumni are against NIL, but barring athletes from making deals with local businesses would be against the law.

“Sometimes we’re our own worst enemy,” [former Bulldogs quarterback and past BOV member Jack Douglas] said. “We can’t get out of our own way. We need to be more welcoming to people and businesses. The gates around the campus aren’t there to keep people out, it’s to keep the cadets in. We’re not taking advantage of some of the resources in Charleston, people and businesses that don’t really have a connection to the school but could be friendly to us and help us out.”

One of those alumni who might have a problem with NIL, however, is the school president. From the minutes of the Board of Visitors meeting on April 24, 2024:

[Walters] then discussed the impact of the current rules/laws on the Southern Conference (SoCon) and The Citadel. He stated there has been little impact to date for The Citadel with only a few athletes participating. Of those, only one currently receives monetary compensation. The others receive products for their endorsements.

He stated that although The Citadel, the SoCon, or the NCAA cannot prohibit an athlete from entering NIL contracts, The Citadel can and will develop a policy that will impose limitations on its student athletes. Among the limitations discussed:

  • Specific prohibitions on when and where student athletes can appear in advertisements for third parties.
  • Prohibit student athletes from appearing in NIL opportunities while wearing team jerseys.
  • Prohibit student athletes from endorsing tobacco, alcohol, illegal substances or activities, banned athletic substances, and gambling, including but not limited to sports betting.
  • Prohibit endorsement of products which compete with school sponsorship agreements or contracts.

It was also discussed prohibiting endorsement of products which conflict with The Citadel’s institutional values, but it was noted that such a rule would likely raise First Amendment concerns.

Personally, I think there is a distinction to be made between general NIL rights and a school-sponsored “collective”, which should be a non-starter at The Citadel.

It is one thing for cadets to work with local businesses, learning the value of networking, etc., or engaging in activities such as sports camps or individual instruction. I have no problem with that; nobody should. It would be like someone in the regimental band teaching local students how to play the bagpipes or the trumpet (and being compensated for it).

A school-sponsored collective implies pay-for-play, however, and that is not the route The Citadel needs to take going forward. Doing so would fly in the face of the school’s overall mission.

It won’t be the route most of The Citadel’s peers will take, either, and that matters in the long run when schools form alliances (or new conferences) as a reaction to the “modernization” of college athletics.

I know there are currently schools in the SoCon that are banking on collectives, and pay-for-play. In the short term, they’re going to have an advantage over The Citadel in certain sports (particularly basketball). That isn’t really something which is controllable.

In ten years, there is a decent chance that The Citadel is not in the same conference with a school like, say, East Tennessee State. That won’t matter, though, if The Citadel is still aligned with VMI and Furman and other schools which could be construed as having a similar reputation (a hard-to-define combination of history, prestige, and cachet).

And yes, I realize that some of those “similar reputation” institutions are currently putting a lot of money into certain sports (like hoops). I’m thinking about what the outlook will be in 10-to-20 years, not 3-to-5.

Now about the transfer portal and non-cadet athletes:

Many of the old guard don’t want the Bulldogs to recruit and sign transfers. The vast majority of transfers signing with The Citadel recently have been graduate students. A handful of undergraduate day students have also transferred into the school.

The balance between cadet-athletes and non-cadet athletes has been a point of contention with some alumni…

…Walters said there are no caps or limits to the number of transfers each team can have.

“We have to give our coaches every opportunity to be competitive,” Walters said. “I’m sure most of the alumni would prefer to have all cadets on our teams, but they also want to win. We had 10 knobs on the basketball team last year and only a couple came back. I can’t hamstring Coach Conroy and have him sign 10 new freshmen every year. He wouldn’t be able to build a program.”

The current basketball roster includes a half-dozen transfers.

Attracting graduate students has been an issue as well. While many graduates want to take advantage of the school’s business program, The Citadel provides just $950 a month to graduate transfers for expenses.

“No one can live in Charleston on $900 a month,” [Citadel Football Association president Robbie Briggs] said. “You can’t pay rent and eat on that. Charleston is expensive. It would take a minimum of $2,000 in my opinion to live in Charleston.”

Ironically, it costs less for the school to sign a non-cadet transfer than to bring a freshman on campus. Freshmen student-athletes cost the school about $10,000 more a year than other undergraduates or graduate transfers due to providing uniforms and equipment.

First, I sincerely hope that coaches are not under any pressure to bring in non-cadets rather than freshmen in order to save money. I would consider any attempt to implement such a policy to be worthy of dismissal.

As to expenses for living in Charleston, I think the problem there is partly with the SoCon. In an appearance on an ETSU-affiliated podcast last December, East Tennessee State AD Richard Sander said this:

“The SoCon is the only conference in the country that limits cost of attendance. So we can only provide 28 student-athletes cost of attendance…we’re limited as to the [league’s] cap…that’s $2000.00. Well, our [actual] cost of attendance at ETSU is $6900.00.

We [ETSU], Chattanooga, a couple of other places [want to change that], but I’ll be honest, the private schools don’t want to change that. They think it’s a competitive advantage for us because our cost of attendance is high compared to theirs.

When we’re recruiting against, pick somebody in basketball…Western Kentucky or College of Charleston, they’re giving [players] total cost of attendance and we think in that kind of situation we think [the league rules] are creating a real difficult situation for us.”

It is possible the SoCon’s CoA rule might be working against The Citadel. I could be wrong about this interpretation, to be sure, but I don’t think the military college is one of the schools blocking a potential increase in the limit.

Briggs is absolutely correct about trying to live in Charleston on $950 per month, and that certainly has had a deleterious effect on the recruitment of certain athletes. We’ve all heard the stories.

Having said that, I am one of the alums who would greatly prefer that almost all (if not all) of our athletes are in the corps of cadets, or are recent graduates from the corps. There are arguments on both sides about this, of course, but I come back to a couple of things.

– “I’m sure most of the alumni would prefer to have all cadets on our teams, but they also want to win.” — Gen. Walters

Well, yes, but when is the last time a transfer-heavy squad at The Citadel was legitimately successful? I’ll wait on your answer. It will be a long wait.

The fact is that we have allowed our coaches to supplement their rosters with large numbers of transfers in recent years, and in no situation has it resulted in a significant increase in winning. Sometimes, it seems to have boomeranged in the opposite direction.

Also, while I understand the point about the problem of cycling through rosters due to freshman attrition, that has always been an issue at The Citadel, long before the transfer portal existed. I might add that the constant one-year “rental” of graduate students hasn’t done anything for continuity (or general competitiveness) either.

– There is another rationale involved here. For whom do the varsity teams at The Citadel primarily exist as a benefit? Well, the players themselves, obviously.

They also exist for the alumni and other supporters, including those in the local community. And they exist, most importantly, for the corps of cadets. I think it is natural and right for the corps to be able to cheer for a team that consists mostly (if not entirely) of fellow cadets.

This isn’t just about a pie-in-the-sky notion of utopia, either. There is also a financial consideration, after all. As Miller pointed out in his article:

Each cadet pays around $3,000 a year in student athletic fees, among the highest in the country. That comes out to approximately $6.4 million, the largest source of revenue for the athletic department.

If cadets are going to front the plurality of the funds which support varsity athletics, it seems to me that those teams should represent them in something close to totality. That means the players should mostly be cadets, too.

Some alumni have also bristled at the sight of long hair and facial hair among some graduate transfers.

“There are a lot of older alumni that believe this place was some kind of nirvana back in the day, and it’s just not true,” Walters said. “We had graduate students playing sports back when I was here in the 1970s, and we had guys with hair flowing out of the backs of their helmets when I was here. People don’t remember that, but I do.”

I wish Andrew Miller had quoted an alumnus with a strong opinion about the issue at hand. I would have liked him to interview one of those who had “bristled”. I think that would have been appropriate, and would have also avoided Walters’ comment coming off as a bit of a ‘strawman’ construct (which clearly wasn’t the intent).

Walters’ quote interested me, though, because I could not recall graduate students playing football in the 1975-78 time frame when he was at The Citadel (he’s a 1979 grad). I’m not old enough to know for sure, though, so I will defer to Walters on this.

To be fair, Walters didn’t specifically refer to grad students in football, but rather he just made a comment about “guys with hair flowing out of the backs of their helmets”.

From perusing the 1978 football media guide, which featured the team that played during Walters’ senior year, I can see how that might have occasionally been the case. Kenny Caldwell is on the cover with Art Baker, and Caldwell’s hair is a little longer than what you would see today at The Citadel.

It was a 1970s thing, I guess. The photos of the coaching staff are instructive as well; offensive coordinator Rick Gilstrap had a lot of lettuce, and running backs coach Mike O’Cain sported a world-class moustache.

However, I don’t think the hairstyles of the 1970s, groovy as they might have been, are really applicable to today. I expect varsity athletes to conform to the current standards of the corps, regardless of status.

That means relatively short hair and no beards or moustaches. The Citadel is a military college. The players that represent it (and the corps of cadets) need to look like they belong, whether on the field, court, track, road, mat, course, range, or diamond.

Also, while a lot of the issues mentioned in the article are hard problems to solve, this isn’t one of them. Just tell the guys to get a shave and a haircut. The world won’t end, and it won’t cost hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Texas A&M model

Oh, boy…

It was during the annual summer talking season in the early 2000s when [Ellis Johnson], the former football coach, brought up the idea of The Citadel adopting a Texas A&M model where the school would open its campus to more non-cadets.

The idea was met with a resounding silence.

As well it should have. However, there is (unfortunately) more:

Up until 1964, Texas A&M required all students to be members in the Corps of Cadets. That year, school president James Earl Rudder opened up the school to women and Blacks for the first time. A year later, membership in the corps became voluntary.

Today, Texas A&M is the second-largest university in the nation with more than 72,000 students. Of those, 2,500 —including 300 women — are cadets.

The idea of allowing non-cadets into The Citadel isn’t even that new. Red Parker, the Bulldogs head coach from 1966-72, was a proponent of letting in non-cadets.

“You have to remember this was in the middle of the Vietnam war and the military wasn’t that popular back then,” said [Charlie Baker], who played linebacker for Parker in the early 1970s. “People think we’d lose our identity as a military school, but we wouldn’t. Look at what Texas A&M has done. They still have a Corps of Cadets, and the school is doing great.”

Texas A&M last year had a $17.2 billion endowment.

I’ll get to the most disingenuous sentence in that quote in a few paragraphs.

However, first let me say this. I have great respect for both Ellis Johnson (who played at The Citadel and also served as its head football coach) and Charlie Baker (another former player who has done great things for The Citadel, and who bleeds light blue).

And they’re both incredibly wrong about this.

Why do people think The Citadel would lose its identity as a military college? Well, because it would.

Do most people today think of Texas A&M as a military school? Of course not. The only time that even comes up in general discourse is when sports fans at other schools make fun of the Yell Leaders.

The Citadel, on the other hand, is chiefly identified as a military college. If you marginalize that essential component, it ceases to be The Citadel, both in the minds of the overwhelming majority of its alumni and among the public at large. It becomes Palmetto A&M, an entity with no history and no justification for having one.

It could be argued the best thing the State of South Carolina has going for it from a higher education standpoint is that (despite the best efforts of some of its leaders over the years) it has produced among its colleges and universities a unique, undeniably successful institution on the banks of the Ashley.

The Citadel has incredible value in its current form. It might be better positioned for the new era of university education than 95% of its fellow schools in this country — and that might be an underestimation.

Colleges and universities are desperately trying to differentiate themselves in order to attract a limited number of future students. It is not an easy thing to do.

However, that isn’t a problem for The Citadel. You can’t get the experience of being a cadet in an online format. You have to be there. You have to feel the no-see-ums. You have to accept a difficult challenge and ultimately pass a test of will, and you have to pass that test in the presence (and with the assistance) of others.

Not only am I diametrically opposed to reducing The Citadel’s value as an alumnus, but I also resent the suggestion as a citizen of the state. Why diminish something so beneficial for no real advantage (and a lot of obvious pitfalls)?

Ellis Johnson also said this:

“Seventy percent of Citadel graduates don’t go into the military,” Johnson said. “They go start businesses, they become entrepreneurs, they go into politics, and they are good, productive citizens. What’s wrong with producing good people and good citizens? Sometimes I think the school caters to that 30 percent of the alumni base a little too much.”

I didn’t understand this comment, on two levels. First, I don’t really think the school caters to its veteran alums more than its other graduates. I’ve never noticed that myself.

More to the point, though, is the idea that the veteran alums are those most against the gradual dissipation of the corps of cadets as the school’s focus. I don’t think that is true at all.

I haven’t done a survey or anything, but I know plenty of non-veterans who are dead-set against turning the school into Palmetto A&M. I’m one of them.

I’m not even sure that a higher percentage of veterans than non-vets are against that concept. I would suspect that there is uniformity in the opposition, regardless of background.

This might be a digression, but I think it is a necessary one. The line in the article that I found particularly misleading was this one:

Texas A&M last year had a $17.2 billion endowment.

In the context of the story, that brief statement tends to imply that Texas A&M began admitting non-cadets and things have gone fantastically well ever since, including an amazing endowment which surely is directly related to the school’s change of mission.

The truth is that there cannot possibly be anything more unrelated than Texas A&M’s endowment and the status of its Corps of Cadets. It might be the most unrelated thing in the history of unrelatedness.

The actual reason Texas A&M has a large endowment is a 19th-century provision established in the Texas Constitution that created something known as the Permanent University Fund (PUF):

In 1876, the Texas Constitution set aside land in West Texas to support The University of Texas and Texas A&M systems of higher education. Today, that land – encompassing 2.1 million acres – is leased to oil and gas companies whose wells generate revenue that flows into the PUF. Land also is leased for grazing, wind farms and other revenue-generating activities.

The Texas A&M system receives one-third of the annual proceeds of the PUF, while the University of Texas system gets the other two-thirds (and thus UT’s endowment is even more monstrous than TAMU’s).

Texas A&M’s share of the PUF return in 2023 totaled slightly over $410 million. That’s for one year. It will get more money this year, and even more cash next year, and presumably every year after that as long as the wells don’t completely run dry.

The provision that set up TAMU (and UT) for all that moolah was enacted 88 years before the school began admitting non-cadets.

The reference to Texas A&M’s endowment should not have been in the article.

The Citadel doesn’t need to be like Texas A&M, and it couldn’t be like Texas A&M even if everyone wanted that outcome. And most people don’t anyway.

Earlier this week, there was another piece in The Post and Courier about The Citadel’s future in athletics, this one in the form of a column by Scott Hamilton that was centered around the upcoming search for a new director of athletics. I wanted to highlight one part of it:

Some initial thoughts are if The Citadel might consider moving down a level. Should dropping to Division II – or perhaps even Division III – be on the table?

No, they just need to know exactly who they are and what their mission is,” said Rob Yowell, president of Arizona-based Gemini Sports. “And that’s (to be) more like West Point, Annapolis and Air Force. Not Coastal Carolina, Liberty and Louisiana-Monroe.

Yowell, whose firm runs major events such as the PGA Tour’s Waste Management Phoenix Open and the Fiesta Bowl, is spot-on. Having an identity would simplify things so much. The service academies embrace who they are, just as traditional Group of 5 schools realize they’re not competing on and off the field with the likes of Alabama and Ohio State.

It is nice to read something as perceptive as that from an outsider — in this case, a Duke graduate who lives in Phoenix. Wonders will never cease.

I will say that The Citadel does share some things in common with Coastal Carolina and ULM, so it isn’t an “exact opposite” comparison when it comes to those two schools (and coincidentally, the AD at Louisiana-Monroe is John Hartwell, a graduate of The Citadel).

“There are a lot of older alumni that believe this place was some kind of nirvana back in the day, and it’s just not true,” Walters said.

Walters is 100% correct about that. I can sympathize with him as he tries to navigate the school through a lot of choppy water, trying to justify various decisions to alumni, a few of whom think it is still 1950, or who wish it were still 1950.

In terms of sports, this is a very trying time for the military college. I believe that the current climate in college athletics is the worst it could be from The Citadel’s perspective since the Sanity Code was enacted in 1948.

Of course, we all know what happened then. The Citadel became one of the famed “Sinful Seven”, and the Sanity Code was eventually revoked.

It didn’t come without controversy, however. For one thing, an attempt was made to expel those seven schools from the NCAA in 1950 — not put them in probation, mind you (probation as we know it today didn’t exist) — but throw them out of the association entirely.

And more than half of the schools in the NCAA voted to expel The Citadel, and the other six schools.

That’s right. Of the 203 delegates, 111 of them cast a ballot to toss out The Citadel and company. The president of the NCAA actually announced that the motion had passed — and then he was reminded that a two-thirds super-majority was needed, and that the motion had thus failed by 25 votes.

That failure essentially ended the long-term viability of the Sanity Code (though it wasn’t formally repealed until the following year).

I think about that occasionally. It is a reminder that things are always going to be a bit testy for The Citadel when it comes to its place in college sports. More than half of its fellow NCAA members once voted to throw the school out of the club.

It is also not strictly coincidental that The Citadel struggled mightily in varsity athletics in the years following the original enactment of the Sanity Code (there were admittedly other reasons too).

From 1948 through 1954, the Bulldogs’ football program had a record of 21-44-1, with no winning seasons in those seven years. In basketball it was even worse. From 1949 through 1956, the hoopsters were 28-135.

Does that sound vaguely familiar?

Things changed, though. The climate around college athletics eventually turned a bit (not too much) in The Citadel’s favor. By the late 1950s, backed by a new school president who didn’t like to lose, and playing in a conference with schools much more on its level than in the previous 20 years, The Citadel started winning consistently in almost all sports.

That can happen again. It will require patience, though. I just hope the folks running the institution (and the alumni and other supporters) maintain that patience.

I want to win, too. I just don’t want to throw away what makes The Citadel great in the process.

The Citadel Football 2023: the season moves into October

The Citadel at Furman, to be played at Paladin Stadium in Greenville, South Carolina, with kickoff at 2:00 pm ET on October 7, 2023.

The game will be streamed on ESPN+. Brock Bowling will handle play-by-play, while Cole Neely supplies the analysis. The sideline reporter is Anna Witte.

The contest can be heard on radio via The Citadel Sports Network. WQNT-1450 AM [audio link], originating in Charleston, will be the flagship station. Other stations carrying the game include WQXL in Columbia (100.7 FM/1470 AM) and WDXY in Sumter (105.9 FM/1240 AM).

Brian Giffin will call the action alongside analyst Lee Glaze.

Links of interest:

– SoCon weekly release

Furman game notes

The Citadel game notes

– Maurice Drayton’s Monday press conference

– Season statistics for The Citadel (five games)

– Box score for Western Carolina-The Citadel

– Furman Football Weekly with Clay Hendrix

Furman builds program the “old-fashioned way”

– Box score for Tennessee Tech-Furman (Furman won, 45-10)

– Box score for Furman-South Carolina (Furman lost, 47-21)

– Box score for Furman-Kennesaw State (a road win for the Paladins, 31-28)

– Box score for Mercer-Furman (Furman won, 38-14)

– Season statistics for Furman (four games)

– The New York Knicks are practicing at McAlister Field House; Julius Randle can’t wait to eat at Halls Chophouse

– Speaking of hoops, The Citadel released its 2023-2024 schedule

Roster review:

– Of the 110 players on The Citadel’s online roster, 58 are from South Carolina. Other states represented: Florida (14 players), Georgia (11), North Carolina (11), Virginia (5), Alabama (2), Ohio (2), New York (2), Texas (2), and one each from Maryland, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

– Furman has 129 players on its online roster. Of those, 29 are from Georgia. Other states represented: Tennessee (19 players), North Carolina (18), Florida (17), Virginia (10), Texas (9), South Carolina (7), Ohio (4), Alabama (3), California (2), Kentucky (2), and one each from Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania.

Offensive lineman Gerrik Vollmer is originally from Hamburg, Germany, where he played club football. He also played high school football in West Virginia and Connecticut before beginning his college career at Virginia (with a subsequent season at Old Dominion).

– The seven Palmetto State players on the Paladins’ squad attended six different high schools (one was home schooled). The six South Carolina high schools represented on Furman’s roster are Brookland-Cayce, Byrnes, Dutch Fork, Gaffney, St. Joseph’s, and Trinity Collegiate.

There has been occasional discussion in certain quarters about the makeup of Furman’s roster. I’m not going to get into that here, but it is striking to see an in-state school with more players on its squad from Texas than from South Carolina.

– Ten members of the Paladins’ roster originally began their respective college careers at other four-year institutions. Among those schools from which players have matriculated to Furman: Colorado State, East Tennessee State, James Madison, Lehigh, Michigan State, Northern Colorado, and Presbyterian.

Eight of those ten transfers are graduate students.

Odds and ends:

– The weather forecast for Saturday in Greenville, per the National Weather Service, mostly sunny, with a projected high of 73°. The low temperature that evening is 46°.

– As I’ve mentioned in other posts, for this season FCS lines and odds posted prior to Saturday have been hard to come by.

– Massey Ratings: Furman is ranked 13th in FCS, a drop of one spot from last week (when the Paladins were idle). The Citadel is 113th (a 4-place decline).

Massey projects Furman to win the game by a predicted score of 41-10. The Citadel is given a 2% chance of winning.

Meanwhile, SP+ ranks Furman 11th (19th on offense, 21st on defense) and The Citadel 126th (127th on offense, 113th on D).

A selected list of SP+ FCS rankings entering Week 6 (I have to say there were some weird moves this week):

  • South Dakota State (1st)
  • Montana State (2nd)
  • North Dakota State (3rd) [lost in Fargo to South Dakota (on Homecoming!) but only dropped one spot]
  • William and Mary (8th)
  • Austin Peay (12th) [a 25-spot jump after beating Lindenwood (?!)]
  • Chattanooga (27th) [fell 11 spots after a win at Wofford]
  • Campbell (34th)
  • Jackson State (36th)
  • Eastern Kentucky (37th) [up 15 places after beating North Alabama]
  • Western Carolina (45th) [a four-spot decline despite a 35-point road victory]
  • Mercer (47th)
  • Samford (54th)
  • Kennesaw State (56th)
  • Davidson (64th)
  • East Tennessee State (79th)
  • Charleston Southern (85th)
  • South Carolina State (94th)
  • Wofford (98th)
  • Bucknell (109th)
  • VMI (112th) [fell 20 places after losing to Mercer, which seems harsh]
  • Morehead State (124th)
  • Presbyterian (127th)
  • Wagner (128th and last)

In other FCS ratings systems, The Citadel ranks 127th in the Congrove Computer Rankings (a drop of 5 spots), 127th in the Laz Index (a decline of 2 places), and 120th in the DCI (unchanged from last week).

– Games involving SoCon teams this week [projected score per SP+ in brackets]:

  • Saturday at 1:30 pm ET: Samford at Wofford [Samford 30.8, Wofford 19.0]
  • Saturday at 2:00 pm ET: The Citadel at Furman [Furman 45.7, The Citadel 3.4]
  • Saturday at 3:30 pm ET: Mercer at East Tennessee State [Mercer 32.4, ETSU 24.9]
  • Saturday at 6:00 pm ET: Western Carolina at Chattanooga [UTC 30.4, WCU 23.4]

VMI is off this week, the second consecutive week in which The Citadel’s next opponent has a bye before playing the Bulldogs.

– Among Furman’s notable alumni: Boston Pops conductor Keith Lockhart, physicist Charles Townes, and journalist Eleanor Beardsley.

– The Citadel has an all-time record of 9-6-1 for games played on October 7. The Bulldogs are 3-3-1 on the road on that date, and are 4-5 in league play.

Somewhat surprisingly, despite the fact that Furman and The Citadel have met 55 previous times in the month of October, Saturday will mark the first time the game has been played on October 7.

Maurice Drayton, when asked about putting more defensive pressure on the quarterback (specifically, blitzing):

Sometimes in football you have to pick your poison…if you look at what [defensive coordinator Raleigh] Jackson’s defenses have done in the past, he is a ‘pressure’ guy — but this is what we need to understand, too. Some of the things we are running into here in Year 1 — you ever heard of the saying “skill versus will”? Well, we have will, but we’re going to have to do things that our skill allows us to do.

…We’re determined to find a way to get after the quarterback…the bottom line is to get a ‘W’ in the win column, so we are looking at all angles of what we do, all the way down to the practice structure, to where we stand during timeouts, to how we [hydrate], to weight training, to our mess hall…we’re looking at the totality of everything to get this thing right. The only way that I know to keep working is to keep swinging that axe, and that tree is going to fall at some point. 

The latter part of that is more about the program in general, of course, but what Drayton is essentially saying is that The Citadel lacks the personnel to employ a more aggressive defense.

The result is a bend-but-don’t-break style of D, and I think most fans understand that concept. The problem is the Bulldogs haven’t really been able to produce a high rate of turnovers or at least hold opponents to field goal attempts when reaching the red zone.

Opposing quarterbacks have had plenty of time to find open receivers, no matter how good the coverage, which has resulted in The Citadel allowing a completion percentage of 76.3%, which is the worst in FCS. The Bulldogs are allowing 9.65 yards per attempt, which is 123rd nationally (out of 128 teams).

(Note: these numbers are per the NCAA’s statistical site. There is a very slight variance between that package and the stats profile found on The Citadel’s own site.)

That lack of pressure can be seen in the defense’s sack rate. The Citadel has registered three sacks through five games, for a sack rate of 124th in FCS (one sack per every 52 opposing pass attempts). The Bulldogs also do not fare well when considering sacks per TD pass allowed or sacks per passing yardage allowed (ranking 126th nationally in both of those categories).

While not directly related to QB pressure, the Bulldogs’ tackling woes have also been a major problem, as anyone who watched the game against WCU can attest. All too often, The Citadel had a defender in position to make a play — sometimes a consequential stop — but the ballcarrier escaped the would-be tackler and picked up significant yardage.

Curiously, the lack of pressure on opposing QBs might be a league-wide trend, because most of the other SoCon programs are not really putting up gaudy sack rates either. The exception is Chattanooga, which ranks in the top 20 in FCS in most of those categories.

For the record, Furman’s defense ranks 87th nationally in sacks per pass attempt, 97th in yardage allowed per sack, and 103rd in TDs allowed per sack. To be fair, the Paladins’ statistical issues on pass defense can be attributed in no small part to Spencer Rattler and South Carolina (463 yards and 5 TDs against one sack).

The other consideration is that Furman’s defense has nine takeaways in its first four games (including five interceptions), part of an overall turnover margin of +6 for the Paladins.

Last week, FBSchedules.com reported that a contract agreement between The Citadel and Clemson to play during the 2028 season had been completed.

That contract was signed on May 17 of this year and is the most recently finalized non-conference game contract involving The Citadel. Two weeks before, the school had agreed to a two-game series with North Dakota State for contests in 2025 and 2027, the first of which will take place in Charleston.

The Citadel will receive $500,000 for the game at Clemson and will be allotted 2,500 complimentary tickets, with most of those presumably to be sold by the military college. Cheerleaders, mascots, and the band receive free admission (although tickets for the band, if it makes an appearance, will count against the allotted ticket total).

I know some folks are interested in some of the ancillary details, so I’ll add that in terms of credentials, The Citadel will receive 60 team bench area passes, 16 all-access passes, 8 coaches’ booth passes, and 6 team/coach video passes.

As for the North Dakota State matchups, each school will be provided 200 complimentary tickets for their respective visits. There are no ticketing provisions for bands, cheerleaders, or mascots. Also, each school will pay the other $50,000 after hosting, which I thought was a bit odd.

North Dakota State also received permission for the game in Charleston to be broadcast to its home media market (ABC North Dakota). It would still be available for streaming on ESPN+.

For the Clemson game and for both NDSU contests, game officials will be assigned by the home team (or as stated in the Clemson contract, “the assigning agency of the host institution”).

There are two other provisions, one in each contract, that are worth noting.

– In the Clemson contract: “Moreover, if either party’s governing conference reduces the number of nonconference games or if due to conference realignment nonconference games are eliminated or reduced, then either party, upon written notice, may cancel the Game without penalty or the payment of liquidated damages.”

That clause was not in the 2017 game contract between the two schools that set up the 2020 and 2024 contests.

– In the NDSU contract: “This agreement may be voided by either party, without penalty or damages, if either is reclassified to a different NCAA membership division after the contract has been executed.”

I wrote about future non-conference schedules for the Bulldogs late last year. With the Clemson game and the two NDSU matchups now included as well, here is an updated list of such games for The Citadel:

2024: at Charleston Southern (8/31), South Carolina State (9/7), North Greenville (9/14), at Clemson (11/23)

2025: North Dakota State (8/30), at Mississippi (9/6), at Gardner-Webb (9/13)

2026: at Charlotte (9/5), Charleston Southern (9/19)

2027: at Navy (9/4), at North Dakota State (9/18)

2028: Gardner-Webb (9/2), at Clemson (9/16)

2029: at Army (10/6)

2033: at Army (11/19)

As a reminder, the 2024 and 2025 seasons are both years in which an FCS team can play 12 regular-season contests, so The Citadel could potentially play four non-conference games in those seasons. It will definitely do so in 2024, as the school has already finalized a full slate.

As for the 2025 season, a non-conference home game is still needed (unless The Citadel were to play seven road games that year, which would not be a good idea).

Speaking of non-conference schedules, Furman recently added some games. The Paladins currently have on tap for the future the following matchups:

2024: at Mississippi (8/31), Charleston Southern (9/7), Stetson (9/14), at William and Mary (9/21)

2025: Presbyterian (8/30), William and Mary (9/6), at North Carolina A&T (9/13), at Clemson (11/22)

2026: Tennessee (9/15), South Carolina State, at Richmond

2027: Richmond, at South Carolina State

The dates for Furman’s games against Richmond and SCSU have not yet been announced, to the best of my knowledge.

I would anticipate a good crowd will be on hand at Paladin Stadium this Saturday, what with an in-state matchup, and Furman having a good season thus far (and one that was expected). It is also Family Weekend, which is Furman’s version of Parents’ Weekend.

As I mentioned last week, and will continue to mention in other previews, the goal for The Citadel is improvement. I thought last week the Bulldogs did show some positive development, just not nearly enough to produce a win or even a particularly close game.

I do wonder what would have happened if not for the horrific officiating call that took away the Bulldogs’ kickoff return TD — momentum does matter — but the bottom line is that it would be incredibly myopic to ignore how the rest of the game went.

If the team continues to get better, and does so on both sides of the ball, then eventually that will lead to an opportunity to put a ‘W’ in the win column, as Maurice Drayton might say. In all honesty, that possibility is not likely this Saturday.

On the other hand, that’s why they play the games.

The Citadel plays a football game in Orangeburg for the first time since 1959

The Citadel at South Carolina State, to be played at Oliver C. Dawson Stadium in Orangeburg, South Carolina, with kickoff at 6:00 pm ET on September 23, 2023.

The game will be streamed on ESPN+. Play-by-play will be handled by Tyler Cupp, while Demetrius Davis supplies the analysis.

The contest can be heard on radio via The Citadel Sports Network. WQNT-1450 AM [audio link], originating in Charleston, will be the flagship station. Other stations carrying the game include WQXL in Columbia (100.7 FM/1470 AM) and WDXY in Sumter (105.9 FM/1240 AM).

Brian Giffin will call the action alongside analyst Lee Glaze.

  • “Live Stats” for the game [link when available]

I usually don’t list the the opposing team’s radio personnel, but I’ll make an exception here, because the duo in the booth for SCSU are both institutions.

Play-by-play voice Ernest Robinson has been a continuous part of SCSU’s radio team since 1978. The host of ‘The Buddy Pough Show’ also was a presence on ESPN Radio Columbia for many years with the ‘Sports Hotline’ program.

Bill Hamilton is the radio analyst. He graduated from South Carolina State in 1973 and has been with the school ever since, including a four-decade run as the school’s SID. The press box at Oliver C. Dawson Stadium is named in his honor.

Links of interest:

– SoCon weekly release

– South Carolina State game notes [when available]

– The Citadel game notes

– Maurice Drayton’s Monday press conference

The bonds between Buddy Pough and Maurice Drayton run deep

– Box score for The Citadel-Chattanooga

– Buddy Pough’s press conference [when available]

MEAC video conference for its coaches, including Buddy Pough

The Buddy Pough Show

Box score for South Carolina State-Jackson State (SCSU lost 37-7 in a game played in Atlanta)

Box score for South Carolina State-Charlotte (SCSU lost, 24-3)

Box score for South Carolina State-Georgia Tech (SCSU lost, 48-13)

– Season statistics for South Carolina State (three games)

– Pough uses bye week to “refine playbook”

Roster review:

– Of the 110 players on The Citadel’s online roster as of September 14, 58 are from South Carolina. Other states represented: Florida (14 players), Georgia (11), North Carolina (11), Virginia (5), Alabama (2), Ohio (2), New York (2), Texas (2), and one each from Maryland, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

– South Carolina State has 106 players on its online roster. Of those, 85 are from South Carolina. Other states represented: Florida (6 players), Georgia (6), North Carolina (5), and one each from Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, and Pennsylvania.

– Of the 85 (!) Palmetto State products on SCSU’s roster, two are graduates of Orangeburg-Wilkinson High School, perhaps fewer than would be expected. Of course, Buddy Pough himself played at O-W under the late Dick Sheridan, so he is well aware of the famed maroon and orange and its inherent greatness.

– Only seven of the Orangeburg Bulldogs are transfers from other post-secondary institutions. Three of them came from fellow FCS schools (Alcorn State, Bryant, and Delaware State); none are from P5/G5 universities.

Odds and ends:

– The weather forecast for Saturday in Orangeburg, per the National Weather Service, includes a 20% chance of showers. The projected high is 81°, with a low that night of 60°.

That sounds rather nice to me.

– If I get a line on the game before noon on Saturday, I’ll post it here. Given how lines and odds have been posted for FCS schools this season, however, that is unlikely.

– Massey Ratings: South Carolina State is ranked 101st in FCS, unchanged from last week. The Citadel is 96th (a 2-place drop).

Massey projects South Carolina State to win the game by a predicted score of 24-21. The Citadel is given a 44% chance of winning.

Meanwhile, SP+ ranks South Carolina State 116th (105th on offense, 101st on defense) and The Citadel 123rd (124th on offense, 103rd on D).

A selected list of SP+ FCS rankings entering Week 4:

  • South Dakota State (1st)
  • North Dakota State (2nd)
  • Montana State (3rd)
  • William and Mary (7th)
  • Furman (18th)
  • Chattanooga (22nd)
  • Campbell (23rd)
  • Jackson State (29th)
  • Mercer (30th)
  • Austin Peay (33rd)
  • Samford (41st)
  • Kennesaw State (44th)
  • Western Carolina (48th)
  • Davidson (52nd)
  • Eastern Kentucky (53rd)
  • Charleston Southern (80th)
  • East Tennessee State (81st)
  • Wofford (92nd)
  • VMI (97th)
  • Bucknell (101st)
  • Morehead State (121st)
  • Presbyterian (126th)
  • Marist (128th and last)

In other FCS preseason polls/rankings, The Citadel ranks 117th in the Congrove Computer Rankings (a drop of 10 spots), 121st in the Laz Index (a decline of 23 places), and 111th in the DCI (down 11 spots).

– Games involving SoCon teams this week [projected score per SP+ in brackets]:

  • Saturday at 1:00 pm ET: Mercer at Furman [Furman 29.3, Mercer 22.0]
  • Saturday at 1:30 pm ET: Wofford at VMI [VMI 19.8, Wofford 18.9]
  • Saturday at 2:30 pm ET: Charleston Southern at Western Carolina [WCU 28.6, ChSo 15.9]
  • Saturday at 3:00 pm ET: Chattanooga at Samford [UTC 28.8, Samford 22.9]
  • Saturday at 6:00 pm ET: The Citadel at South Carolina State [SCSU 26.7, The Citadel 20.4]

East Tennessee State is off this week.

– Among South Carolina State’s notable alumni: songwriter/arranger/producer Horace Ott, longtime congressman Jim Clyburn, and biophysicist Kandice Tanner.

– The Citadel has an all-time record of 3-7 for games played on September 23. The Bulldogs are 1-5 away from home.

The most notable game played by The Citadel on September 23 came in 1989. In the remnants of Hurricane Hugo, the Bulldogs defeated Navy in Annapolis, 14-10.

The following week, The Citadel played South Carolina State in a game that was subsequently dubbed the “Hurricane Bowl” or the “Hugo Bowl” (your choice). The contest was moved from Charleston to Columbia, and played at Williams-Brice Stadium.

I wrote about that matchup a few years ago, the first meeting on the gridiron between South Carolina State and The Citadel. Allow me to copy and paste this next section.

There would have been a certain kind of hype attached to the game, which explains why a reporter for The Nation was one of the 21,853 people in attendance. However, any sociopolitical context had already been effectively blown away by the winds that had done so much damage to the state the week before.

The Citadel had won its previous game at Navy, 14-10, but that victory had come at a cost. The starting quarterback for the Bulldogs, Brendon Potts, was lost for the season with a knee injury. His replacement was a redshirt freshman named Jack Douglas.

Douglas made his first career start for The Citadel against South Carolina State. He scored two touchdowns while passing for another (a 68-yard toss to Phillip Florence, one of two passes Douglas completed that afternoon).

Shannon Walker had a big game for the Bulldogs, returning a kickoff 64 yards to set up a field goal, and later intercepting a pass that, after a penalty, gave The Citadel possession at South Carolina State’s 6-yard line (Douglas scored his first TD two plays later).

Adrian Johnson scored the go-ahead touchdown in the third quarter on a 26-yard run. The Citadel had trailed South Carolina State at halftime, but held the Orangeburg Bulldogs scoreless in the second half.

The military college won the game, 31-20, and finished with 260 rushing yards — 137 of which were credited to one Tom Frooman (on 15 carries). The native of Cincinnati rushed for 118 yards in the second half, with a key 41-yard run that came on the play immediately preceding Johnson’s TD.

Frooman added 64 yards on an 80-yard drive that cemented the victory (Douglas capping that possession with a 3-yard touchdown in the game’s final minute of play).

In a way, it is hard to believe that was 34 years ago. In another way, it isn’t hard to believe at all.

The Citadel and SC State have faced each other three more times since then, in consecutive years from 1999 through 2001. The Bulldogs from Charleston came out on top on all three occasions, though the 1999 contest could have gone either way, with The Citadel very fortunate to prevail.

Buddy Pough on this Saturday’s game:

“I hope (this game) could develop into some sort of rivalry,” Pough said. “There are all kinds of kinships and relationships with their coaching staff, and this always has a chance to be one of those special, friendly rivalries.”

Pough said there is a large contingent of Citadel supporters around the Orangeburg area, and he knows they will be cheering for their team Saturday.

“We have all kinds of Citadel folks in town that are calling me about parking spots and tailgating spots,” Pough joked. “We have some big supporters in this town, and I told them it was OK to come … but they were going to have to pay. Hopefully, while they’re here, they will leave a few bucks.”

I completely agree with the coach. These two schools should play each other in football more often. They don’t necessarily have to meet every season (scheduling issues for both would more than likely preclude that from happening anyway), but a semi-regular series seems like a natural.

I think it would be more than appropriate for a player at The Citadel to make the trip to Orangeburg at least once during his career, and vice versa, so perhaps two games every four years (home and home) would be good.

After all, regular trips to Orangeburg for a football game are actually an old tradition at The Citadel…

While this is the first time The Citadel has played South Carolina State in Orangeburg, the school has a long (albeit dormant) history of playing in The Garden City.

The Citadel has played 38 times in Orangeburg in its history. All of those games were played in conjunction with the Orangeburg County Fair, usually in late October or early November.

Most, if not all, of the games were attended by the corps of cadets, which as a group took the train to Orangeburg. That was back when there were railroad tracks on campus.

In 1916, The Citadel made its debut on the gridiron in Orangeburg by defeating Clemson, 3-0. The last game the Bulldogs played there (before this Saturday) was a 40-8 victory over Wofford in 1959.

From 1916 through 1959, The Citadel played in Orangeburg every season except for 1938 and 1939 (more on that later), the war years of 1943-45 (when the school did not field a team), and in 1953.

Many of those games were against South Carolina — 20 of them, in fact, with generally excellent attendance that occasionally exceeded 10,000 fans (a very good number before World War II). The Citadel also played at the county fair against Wofford (8 times), Clemson (5), Furman (3), and once each versus Presbyterian and Erskine.

While The Citadel opened its account in Orangeburg with a win over Clemson, and closed it with a victory over Wofford, most of the games at the fair didn’t end that way. The Citadel’s record in Orangeburg is 7-27-4.

Only one of those games against the Gamecocks resulted in a victory (1926, which along with 1916 is one of two years in which The Citadel defeated both South Carolina and Clemson during the season). There were two ties among those twenty matchups.

Then there was the 1937 game, in which the final score (21-6 in favor of the Gamecocks) was but a footnote.

South Carolina halfback Jack Lyons was returning a punt and in the open field when he “was tackled by a spectator who was watching the game from the sideline. It was a man dressed in a brown business suit. He slashed in on the ball carrier with a perfect tackle.”

The individual in question, William R. Milligan, became known as ‘The Man in the Brown Suit’, which might have been a play on an Agatha Christie novel of that title which had been published a few years earlier. (I’m just guessing on that; incidentally, it’s not a terrible book but not one of her best, either).

Anyway, his effort on behalf of the Bulldogs led to an on-field fracas featuring spectators from both sides (including the corps of cadets), the football players, and assorted other individuals that only ended when:

“the Bulldog and Gamecock bands began playing ‘The Star Spangled Banner.’

Everybody stopped fighting and stood at attention, with the uniformed cadets of The Citadel leading the way.

The band music returned peace to the stadium and the game resumed with the Bulldogs scoring a touchdown before it was over.”

While peace was eventually restored, it is possible that the folks in Orangeburg decided that the two teams could take a break from meeting at the county fair for a few years.

In 1938, South Carolina played Villanova in Orangeburg instead of The Citadel. In 1939, the Gamecocks again returned to the county fair, this time playing West Virginia.

The Citadel played Wofford in 1940 in Orangeburg. Then, in 1941, the Gamecocks and Bulldogs returned to face each other again at the fair.

Oh, I have to quote the coda to the story of the 1937 game, written a few years ago in The Times and Democrat:

William R. Milligan, “the man in brown,” was hauled away by the Orangeburg Police Department.

He stood around with local policemen and listened to the play-by-play account of the remainder of the game on Columbia’s WIS radio. At the end of the game, he was released to return to Charleston…

…In later years, during fair week, Milligan, a poultry enthusiast, would be a mainstay at the county fair’s poultry barn.

Eventually, South Carolina quit playing in Orangeburg. The Citadel continued to do so, however, against other competition, maintaining the tradition through most of the 1950s.

The exception was 1953, when instead of playing in Orangeburg, the Bulldogs traveled to Roanoke, Virginia, and played Virginia Tech at Victory Stadium (where the Hokies used to play two or three games every season).

That year, the good citizens in Orangeburg settled for a matchup between Newberry and Guilford (though South Carolina and The Citadel’s freshman teams played a game there as well that weekend).

The Citadel’s final game at the Orangeburg County Fair came in 1959 and featured some hard feelings.

The contest drew 8,000 spectators, not a bad turnout, but perhaps not enough for The Citadel to continue to play games in Orangeburg. The Bulldogs won easily, breaking a Wofford winning streak in the series of four games.

Wofford and The Citadel would not meet again until 1967, in part because of a post-game disagreement between the two coaches, Eddie Teague of The Citadel and Wofford’s Conley Snidow. The Terriers’ boss accused Teague of running up the score, a charge heatedly denied by the Bulldogs’ coach.

Snidow complained about a late touchdown scored by The Citadel (though the TD came after Wofford had fumbled the ball away on its own five-yard-line), and he also belittled the Bulldogs’ victory, saying it came against one of his lesser squads.

There might have been some previous bad blood between the two men, as The Citadel had already announced it was suspending the series. My general impression is that Teague, who by this time was piloting a very good team which he had patiently developed over several years, had much better things to do than worry about whatever Wofford’s coach was whining about at any given moment.

The Citadel would only play Wofford once between 1959 and 1975.

College football at the Orangeburg County Fair wasn’t quite done once The Citadel left the scene; Wofford and Newberry played each other there in 1960 and 1961. After that, though, the gridiron action was limited to high school teams.

For anyone interested, I’ve compiled The Citadel’s games at the Orangeburg County Fair into a spreadsheet that can be accessed here: Link

The media guide doesn’t always list the games as having been played in Orangeburg (the matchup versus Erskine, for example). I’ve confirmed all the county fair contests via newspaper reports.

I’ll be in Orangeburg on Saturday. It might be a little late in the day to also make a trip to get some quality BBQ (and hash!), but we’ll see. That’s why coolers were invented.

I am hopeful for a competitive contest. I suspect both fan bases feel that way, actually.

Nothing further to add. Let’s play some football.

College Football Week 7, 2021: Thursday notes and observations

Tuesday notes and observations (including a statistical overload, featuring The Citadel and Furman but with some comments on FCS in general)

The Citadel’s game notes

Furman’s game notes

SoCon weekly release

The Brent Thompson Show

Furman Football, Monday episode

Paladins’ Shiflett:  a quarterback playing wide receiver (and well)

Guide to gameday in and around Paladin Stadium (don’t bring any turkey calls)

Broadcast information

The Citadel at Furman, to be played at Paladin Stadium in Greenville, SC, with kickoff at 6:00 pm ET on October 16, 2021.

The game will be streamed on ESPN+. Mark Childress will handle play-by-play, while Cole Neely supplies the analysis. The game will also be available on ESPN College Extra.

The contest can be heard on radio via The Citadel Sports Network. WQNT-1450 AM [audio link], originating in Charleston, will be the flagship station. Other stations carrying the game include WQXL in Columbia (100.7 FM/1470 AM) and WDXY in Sumter (105.9 FM/1240 AM).

Luke Mauro (the “Voice of the Bulldogs”) calls the action alongside analyst Lee Glaze.

“Live Stats” for the game

The kickoff time for this game is 6:00 pm ET (or maybe 6:05 pm ET, as it is listed in a couple of places), which struck more than a few people as odd. I don’t think it will have any bearing on the outcome of the contest, but I’m also not sure why Furman decided on a late afternoon/early evening start time. In terms of the calendar, this is the latest home night game in program history.

The reasoning behind waiting for darkness certainly isn’t about tradition. In fact, this is the first time The Citadel and Furman will have played a night game at Paladin Stadium since it opened in 1981. I do not know if the two schools ever played an evening contest at Furman’s previous home field, Sirrine Stadium, either (to be honest, I’m not sure what the lights situation was there).

This is also Furman’s first home night game since the Paladins played Chattanooga in 2016. That matchup was a “blackout” game for the Paladins, as the team wore black jerseys and the home partisans were encouraged to sport black as well. The Mocs won that evening, 21-14.

I have to say that I don’t recall too many successful “blackout” contests, regardless of school. I distinctly remember South Carolina playing a much-hyped “blackout” game in Columbia against Florida in 2001. The Gators dominated the Gamecocks, 54-17. Via the Associated Press:

Rex Grossman and his teammates were more amused than overwhelmed when much of the record 84,900 at Williams-Brice Stadium turned out in black.

“It was fun,” Grossman said. “It was like they weren’t even there. They were blacked out. Then we drove them out, they left.”

Even Florida Coach Steve Spurrier chuckled at the sight. “One of our receivers said, ‘Coach, it was nice of them to wear all black so we can pick the ball out of the sky,”’ he said.

I believe Furman will wear its traditional purple jerseys on Saturday night. Just as well, I suppose.

On Monday, Furman radio voice Dan Scott asked Clay Hendrix: “Are the players excited about playing a night game here?”

Hendrix: “I have no idea. You’ll have to ask them, we haven’t talked about it.”

Roster review:

– Of the 112 players on The Citadel’s online roster, 61 are from South Carolina. Other states represented: Georgia (18 players), Florida (11), North Carolina (9), Virginia (4), Alabama (2), Texas (2), and one each from New York, Oklahoma, Ohio, and Tennessee.

Tight end Hayden Williamson played his high school football in Okinawa, Japan.

– Of the 110 players on Furman’s online roster, 11 are from South Carolina. More Paladins are from Georgia (26) than any other state. Other states represented: Florida (17 players), Tennessee (17 players), North Carolina (10), Texas (8), Alabama (3), Kentucky (3), Ohio (3), Illinois (2), Pennsylvania (2), and one each from Delaware, Idaho, Indiana, Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, and Virginia.

It is not surprising that only 10% of Furman’s roster hails from the Palmetto State, as that is an inevitable result of recent recruiting by the Paladins. In the last two years, the program has largely eschewed South Carolina in favor of bringing in talent from other states, including a notable dip into the Texas high school ranks.

It should be said that Furman has traditionally recruited Georgia (and to a lesser extent Tennessee) for players as much, if not more, than South Carolina, so this isn’t necessarily a new development. However, the absence of S.C. signees in FU’s last two recruiting classes has understandably received some negative feedback from the local high school community. Wofford also drew the ire of that group for only signing one player from South Carolina.

Hard feelings could be attributed in part to this specific recruiting cycle’s mountain of COVID-19 issues. Some of the locals were particularly upset that in a very difficult year for high school players, Furman’s and Wofford’s classes were almost exclusively from out of state.

I don’t really have a strong opinion on this topic. I will say that Furman and Wofford are private schools, and have no responsibility to recruit players from South Carolina. It can be a tough look at times, to be sure. It might also be an issue for things like attendance (although that is probably debatable).

Instinctively, it seems to me that Furman and Wofford are better off as football programs when they regularly bring in at least a few S.C. players each year. After all, while the Paladins only have 11 players from South Carolina, 8 of them are on the current two-deep.

I suspect that Furman (and probably Wofford) will sign several Palmetto State products in the coming year.

One thing that sometimes gets lost in the discussion, though, is the fact that Furman’s student body is mostly from out of state. Getting hard numbers can be tricky, but one source states that only 27.7% of FU’s undergraduates are from South Carolina. The nature of the institution as a whole (and how it has changed over the years) is surely a factor in the Paladins’ recruiting outlook.

Brief lines/odds discussion:

Furman is an 11½-point favorite over The Citadel; the over/under is 50½.

Other SoCon lines: Mercer is a 12½-point favorite over VMI (over/under of 63½); Samford is a 6-point favorite at Wofford (over/under of 72½); and East Tennessee State is a 2½-point favorite at Chattanooga (over/under of 51).

None of those spreads surprised me except for VMI-Mercer. The Bears should be favored, but 12½ is a lot of points against a team that won the league last season and just beat Chattanooga.

A few lines from the FCS world that I thought were a little strange (for recreational purposes only, as I live in South Carolina where gambling is still illegal):

  • Colgate-Cornell: this is a pick’em, but Cornell should be favored at home, perhaps by as much as a touchdown; the over/under is only 34½ (?!)
  • Princeton-Brown: the Tigers are a 16½-point road favorite; the spread probably should be higher
  • Bucknell-Fordham: to be fair, Christy Mathewson’s alma mater is not good, but the Rams as 24½-point favorites might be a bit much
  • Monmouth-Campbell: I know it is a long road trip for Monmouth, but I think the wrong team (Campbell, by 4½ points) is favored
  • Robert Morris-North Alabama: another long road journey, another game in which it is possible the wrong team (UNA) is favored — this time by 10½ points
  • Tarleton State-Dixie State: repeating myself, but Tarleton State should be a slight favorite, not the homestanding Trailblazers (by 2½ points)

Feel free to silently cackle when my guesses inevitably go 0-6.

The weekend is almost here, for which we are all grateful…

College Football Week 7, 2021: Tuesday notes and observations

The Citadel’s game notes for the matchup against Furman

Furman has a new quarterback

The weather forecast for Saturday in Greenville, per the National Weather Service: a 40% chance of showers, with a high of 78°. The nighttime low temperature (kickoff is at 6:00 pm ET) is projected to be 48°.

Paladin Stadium seats approximately 16,000 spectators. This summer, a new playing surface was installed, FieldTurf’s “Revolution 360”.

Furman will be honoring former coach Dick Sheridan at Saturday’s game. Sheridan, of course, is best remembered for leading the famed maroon and orange of Orangeburg-Wilkinson High School to the South Carolina 4-A state title in 1971.

The Paladins had a new starting quarterback for their game against Wofford. True freshman Jace Wilson (5’11”, 176 lbs.) had a solid afternoon against the Terriers, completing 60.9% of his passes, with a touchdown and no interceptions, averaging 8.2 yards per attempt.

Wilson (a native of Texas) also had six rushing attempts for 26 yards and a TD. While his individual numbers on the ground were relatively modest, his presence as a potential threat to run helped Furman a great deal in its overall rushing attack. The Paladins ran for 289 yards against the Terriers (5.67 yards/rush), with halfback Devin Wynn accounting for 204 yards (and two touchdowns) on 31 carries.

For the game, Furman averaged 6.46 yards per play; in the prior four contests, FU had averaged just 4.79 yards per play. After running the ball on 53.4% of its offensive plays from scrimmage in those first four games, Furman rushed on 68.9% of its plays versus Wofford.

The Paladins had a decided edge in total plays (74 to 44), with almost a 10-minute advantage in time of possession. FU converted third down attempts at a 66.7% clip (while Furman’s defense held Wofford to just 2 of 8 on third down tries).

Link to my working spreadsheet for FCS statistics (through October 9)

Here are some quick comparisons (and remember, there are 128 teams in FCS), in chart form. Obviously, the defensive numbers/rankings are for yards/conversions/points allowed, etc. Also obviously, the chart is kind of clunky.

  FU offense National rank TC defense National Rank
Yards/play 5.15 82 6.76 118
Adj yds/rush 3.89 102 5.55 110
Adj yds/pass 6.79 41 8.17 119
3rd down conv % 44.9% 22 50.0% 121
4th down conv % 75.0% T11 60.0% T90
4th down att 4 T114 5 T10 (fewest)
RZ est. pts/poss 4.53 82 4.82 52
Run play % 56.5% 33 54.0% 48
         
  TC offense National rank FU defense National rank
Yards/play 5.78 42 5.8 74
Adj yds/rush 5.43 22 5.01 77
Adj yds/pass 7.3 18 6.68 76
3rd down conv % 40.0% 50 38.3% 68
4th down conv % 50.0% T59 0.0% T1
4th down att 16 T10 2 T1 (fewest)
RZ est. pts/poss 5.12 46 5.00 T60
Run play % 81.3% 3 52.8% 55

A few other stats of note:

  • Presbyterian leads all of FCS in fourth down conversion attempts, with 37 through 5 games. No other team is even close.
  • Not surprisingly, the Blue Hose are also last in total punts (2). PC’s net punting average is just 9.5, so perhaps it is just as well that Kevin Kelley’s squad (almost) never punts.
  • Speaking of punting, The Citadel is 6th in net punting (42.86). Matt Campbell’s 84-yard punt last week (which was downed at the 1-yard line) was the longest punt by a Bulldog since World War II. 
  • Montana is 1st nationally in net punting (45.08). Furman is 108th (31.96).
  • The Citadel and Furman both have an overall turnover margin of +1 through 5 games.
  • Campbell (the university, that is, not the punter) has the best turnover margin in FCS, at +2.40 per game, while Presbyterian has the worst (-2.60). In related news, Campbell played PC earlier this season; the Fighting Camels won 72-0, intercepting 7 Blue Hose passes and recovering 3 Presbyterian fumbles. Campbell itself committed no turnovers during the contest.
  • Furman is 32nd in average time of possession; The Citadel is 59th. The Paladins average 27.23 seconds per offensive play, while the Bulldogs average 28.12.
  • Samford (18.33 seconds per offensive play) is the fastest offense in FCS, which is not exactly a shock. Presbyterian is 2nd, while Western Carolina is 5th and Charleston Southern is 6th. One of the slower teams in this category is North Dakota State (125th nationally, at 32.39 seconds).
  • As far as penalties are concerned, FU is tied for 17th nationally in fewest penalty yards per contest (42.0). The Citadel is 37th (49.8).
  • The Citadel is also one of 12 FCS teams averaging more than 10 yards per accepted penalty; in other words, when the Bulldogs are flagged, it is often a “major” infraction.
  • Bucknell has the fewest average penalty yards in FCS (24.8), while Tennessee State is the most-penalized squad in the country (92.0 yards per contest). TSU is the only FCS team averaging more than 10 accepted penalties per game.
  • Despite losing last week, South Dakota State’s offense still leads the nation in yards per play (8.03); The top SoCon teams in yards per play are ETSU (7th overall) and Mercer (9th). Lehigh (2.61) is last in the subdivision.
  • Lehigh is at the bottom of a number of offensive categories, including points per game (1.5; the Mountain Hawks have scored 9 points in 6 games). Lehigh is the only FCS team yet to score a touchdown.
  • Only one team defense in FCS has yet to intercept a pass. That team is Jackson State, coached by Deion Sanders (who had 14 interceptions in college, and 53 more in his Hall of Fame NFL career).
  • However, Jackson State actually has an elite D, ranking at or near the top in several FCS defensive categories. One reason JSU might not have any interceptions is that opposing QBs are often sacked before they have a chance to throw a pick; the Tigers rank first overall in sacks (27 in 5 games) and sack rate (13.5%).
  • Jackson State is 3rd nationally in yards allowed per play, behind only Princeton (which is first, allowing just 3.23 yards per play) and Prairie View A&M.
  • Per my numbers, Southeastern Louisiana has the nation’s most efficient Red Zone offense. The Lions have parlayed that into a 4-1 record. On the other hand, the team ranked second in the category, Bethune-Cookman, is 0-6. The Wildcats can score, but alas, they are scored upon even more (38.5 ppg allowed).
  • The best Red Zone defense in FCS, at least as far as my metrics are concerned, belongs to North Dakota State. Three schools in the Ivy League (Penn, Dartmouth, and Harvard) rank 2-3-4, with the Bison’s in-state rival North Dakota rounding out the top 5.
  • Butler has the leakiest Red Zone defense in the nation; Western Carolina has the next-worst unit.
  • Montana State averages an interception every 14.36 pass attempts by an opponent, best in FCS (the Bobcats have 11 picks in 6 games). Furman ranks 19th in this category (21.67), while The Citadel is 62nd (36.75).
  • VMI’s opponents have run the ball on 67.3% of plays from scrimmage against the Keydets’ defense, by a considerable margin the largest percentage in all of FCS. One reason: VMI’s schedule so far this year has included Davidson (first in offensive run play percentage), The Citadel (third), and Wofford (tenth). That is the kind of thing which can distort certain statistics, especially early in the season.

More to come later in the week…

Looking at the numbers, 2021 preseason: returning starters in the SoCon

Other preseason posts from July:

One of the major storylines for the upcoming football season is the large number of experienced gridders who are returning to college this fall. The “free year” that was the F20/S21 school year has led to a glut of so-called “superseniors”, players in their sixth years (or fifth-year players who haven’t redshirted).

As a result of the extra year being granted, Clemson has at least two players (linebacker James Skalski and punter Will Spiers) who could conceivably play in 70 games during their college careers. That is just a ludicrous number of games for a college football player, but we live in ludicrous times.

Illinois has 22 superseniors, most in the country (the Illini also have 18 “regular” seniors). In February, the AP reported that over 1,000 superseniors were on FBS rosters, a number that has probably declined since then, but still obviously significant.

Information on FCS programs is sketchier, but there was a recent report confirming that Southern Illinois has 16 superseniors, which has to be close to the most in the subdivision, if not the most. Between Illinois and SIU, there are a lot of veteran pigskin collegians in the Land of Lincoln.

Incidentally, one of Southern Illinois’ superseniors is former Western Carolina running back Donnavan Spencer, who transferred from Cullowhee to Carbondale for the fall 2021 campaign.

All of this is reflected in sizeable “returning starters” lists among a lot of teams throughout the sport, including both the FBS and FCS. As an example, here are some numbers from the ACC and SEC, per Phil Steele’s 2021 College Football Preview:

  • Wake Forest: 20 returning starters (but with tough injury news over the last week)
  • North Carolina State: 19
  • Miami: 19 (and only lost 9 out of 70 lettermen)
  • Syracuse: 19
  • Arkansas: 19
  • North Carolina: 18
  • LSU: 18 (hopefully some of them will play pass defense this season)
  • Florida State: 17 (joined by a bunch of D-1 transfers)
  • Boston College: 17
  • Georgia Tech: 17
  • Vanderbilt: 17 (possibly not a positive)
  • Mississippi: 17

The team in those two leagues with the fewest returning starters is Alabama, with 11. Of course, the Tide had six players from last season’s squad picked in the first round of the NFL draft, so a bit of turnover in Tuscaloosa was inevitable. I suspect Nick Saban isn’t too worried about replacing them.

The returning production totals are unprecedented at the FBS level.

The top 10 includes several very interesting teams, including Louisiana-Lafayette, Arizona State, Nevada, and UCLA. It is somewhat incredible that Coastal Carolina has a returning production rate of 89% and doesn’t even crack the top 15.

Some of the teams at the bottom of this ranking are national powers that reload every year. Alabama was already mentioned, but the same is true for Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Florida.

BYU and Northwestern also had outstanding seasons last year (and combined for three first-round draft picks). The story wasn’t the same for Duke and South Carolina, however.

Okay, now time to talk about the SoCon. Who in the league is coming back this fall? An easier question to answer would be: who isn’t?

SoCon returning starters, Fall 2021

The spreadsheet linked above has 12 categories. A quick explanation of each:

  • F20/S21 Games Played: total number of games played by a team during the 2020-21 school year, both in the fall (F20) and the spring (S21)
  • F20/S21 Participants: the number of players who suited up during 2020-21
  • F20/S21 Starters: the number of different starters during 2020-21
  • F20/S21 Returning Participants: the number of returnees who played during 2020-21
  • F20/S21 Returning Starters: the number of returning starters from 2020-21
  • F20/S21 Returning Starters 2+: the number of returnees from 2020-21 who started at least two games
  • Spring 2021: total number of games played by a team in the spring (all conference games, except for VMI’s playoff matchup)
  • Spring 2021 Participants: the number of players who took the field during the spring
  • Spring 2021 Starters: the number of different starters during the spring
  • Spring Returning Participants: the number of returnees who played in the spring
  • Spring Returning Starters: the number of returning starters from the spring
  • Spring Returning Starters 2+: the number of returnees who started at least two games during the spring

Most of that needs no explanation. The idea of including a category for multiple starts was inspired by Chattanooga’s game against Mercer, when the Mocs fielded what was essentially a “B” team. UTC had 19 players who started that game, but did not start in any of Chattanooga’s other three spring contests.

There are a few players who started one game in the spring, but also started at least one game in the fall. They are listed as having started multiple games for F20/S21, of course, but not for the spring.

The list of starters does not include special teams players. Some programs list specialists as starters, but they generally are not treated as such from a statistical point of view, and for the sake of consistency I am only listing offensive and defensive starters.

Returnee stats are based on each school’s online football roster as of July 26 (the league’s Media Day). 

Players on current rosters who did not start in F20/S21, but who did start games in 2019, are not included as returning starters. There are two players from The Citadel who fit this description; undoubtedly there are a few others in the conference.

I also did not count any incoming transfers with prior starting experience. That is simply another piece to a team’s roster puzzle.

There is no doubt that transfers will have a major impact on the fall 2021 season. For example, Western Carolina has 15 players on its roster who arrived from junior colleges or other four-year schools following the spring 2021 campaign (the Catamounts have 26 transfers in all).

Five of the nine SoCon schools did not play in the fall. Thus, their overall numbers are the same as their spring totals (and are noted as such on the spreadsheet).

As I’ve said before, when it comes to the veracity of the game summaries, I think the athletic media relations folks at the SoCon schools did quite well for the most part, especially when considering how difficult staffing must have been at times during the spring. There were a few miscues, and in terms of data input, the participation charts seemed to cause the most problems.

Did Mercer start a game with no offensive linemen? Uh, no. Was a backup quarterback a defensive starter for Chattanooga? Nope. In three different contests, did Furman take the field after the opening kickoff with only 10 players? It did not.

There was also a scattering of double-counted players, usually a result of misspellings or changes in jersey numbers. Hey, it happens.

Ultimately, I am fairly confident in the general accuracy of the numbers in the spreadsheet linked above, particularly the categories for starters. The totals for participants should also be largely correct, although I will say that it is harder to find (and correct) errors in online participation charts for participants than it is starters. That is because the players who tend to be occasionally omitted from the charts are special teams performers and backup offensive linemen — in other words, non-starters who do not accumulate standard statistics.

According to the SoCon’s fall prospectus, 553 of the 636 players who lettered in F20/S21 are playing this fall (86.9%). That tracks with my numbers, with 83.2% of all participants returning (573 of 689). I did find one player listed as a returnee in the prospectus who is not on his school’s online roster; it is possible there are one or two more such cases.

Samford had by far the most participants, with 95 (in seven contests). Of that group, however, 24 only appeared in one game during the spring. The number of multiple-game participants for SU is more in line with some of the other spring-only teams, such as Furman; the Paladins also played seven games, with 71 participants, 64 of whom played in at least two games.

Having said that, kudos to Samford for being able to maintain a roster that large this spring. That is a credit to its coaching and support staff.

Mercer, which played three games in the fall and eight in the spring, has the most returnees that started multiple games, with 37. There are 25 Bears who are returning after making at least two spring starts.

The Citadel has the most players returning who had 2+ starts in the spring, with 28. Wofford has the fewest (19), not a huge surprise given the Terriers only played in five games.

Chattanooga and East Tennessee State combine to return 122 out of 128 players who participated in the spring season. Those returnees include 75 players who started at least one spring game.

Conference teams average 30.44 returning starters from the spring. No squad has fewer than 25.

For the SoCon, I’m not really capable of fully replicating the formula Bill Connelly uses for his FBS returning production rates; I lack access to some of the necessary data. Therefore, I am just going to list some of the (very limited) spots throughout the conference in which teams will have to replace key performers from the spring. I realize that is more anecdotal in nature than the rest of this post.

  • Furman must replace three starters on its offensive line, including the versatile Reed Kroeber (41 career starts for the Paladins). FU also loses first-team all-SoCon free safety Darius Kearse.
  • Wofford has to replace its second-leading rusher from the spring (Ryan Lovelace), and players who accounted for 61% of the Terriers’ receiving production.
  • VMI loses three defensive stalwarts who were second-team all-conference selections; one of them, lineman Jordan Ward, will be a graduate transfer at Ball State this fall.
  • The Keydets will also miss Reece Udinski, who transferred to Maryland (as was announced before the spring campaign even began). However, Seth Morgan certainly filled in at QB with aplomb after Udinski suffered a season-ending injury.
  • Mercer must replace leading rusher Deondre Johnson, a second-team all-league pick.
  • Samford placekicker Mitchell Fineran, an all-SoCon performer who led the conference in scoring, graduated and transferred to Purdue. He is the only regular placekicker or punter in the conference from the spring not to return for the fall.
  • I mentioned earlier that Western Carolina running back Donnavan Spencer (a first-team all-conference choice) transferred to Southern Illinois. The Catamounts also lost another first-team all-league player, center Isaiah Helms, a sophomore who transferred to Appalachian State. That has to sting a bit in Cullowhee. 
  • WCU’s starting quarterback last spring, Ryan Glover, transferred to California (his third school; he started his collegiate career at Penn). Glover and VMI’s Udinski are the only league players to start multiple games at quarterback this spring who are not returning this fall.
  • Western Carolina defensive tackle Roman Johnson is listed on the Catamounts’ online roster, but also reportedly entered the transfer portal (for a second time) in mid-July. I am including him as a returning starter for now, but there is clearly a lot of uncertainty as to his status.
  • The Citadel must replace starting right tackle Thomas Crawford (the only spring starter for the Bulldogs who is not returning).
  • A few players who appeared in fall 2020 action but not in the spring eventually found their way to FBS-land. Chattanooga wide receiver Bryce Nunnelly, a two-time first team all-SoCon selection during his time with the Mocs, will play at Western Michigan this season. Mercer wideout Steven Peterson, who originally matriculated at Coastal Carolina before moving to Macon, is now at Georgia. Strong safety Sean-Thomas Faulkner of The Citadel will wear the mean green of North Texas this fall.

Odds and ends:

  • Of the 51 players on the media’s all-SoCon teams (first and second), 42 will return this fall. 
  • One of those returnees is ETSU linebacker Jared Folks, who will be an eighth-year collegian this season (the only one in D-1). Folks started his college career at Temple in 2014 — the same year in which Patrick Mahomes debuted for Texas Tech.
  • Robert Riddle, the former Mercer quarterback who did not appear in F20/S21, is now at Chattanooga. Riddle made nine starts for the Bears over two seasons, but his time in the program was ravaged by injuries.
  • Chris Oladokun, who started Samford’s spring opener at QB, transferred to South Dakota State. Oladokun began his college days at South Florida before moving to Birmingham, where he started eight games for SU in 2019. His brother Jordan will be a freshman defensive back at Samford this fall.

So, to sum up: every team has lots of players back, which means (almost) every team’s fans expects the upcoming season for their respective squads to be truly outstanding. College football games this year will all take place in Lake Wobegon, because everyone will be above average.

2019 Football, Game 8: The Citadel vs. Furman

The Citadel vs. Furman, to be played at Paladin Stadium in Greenville, South Carolina, with kickoff at 1:00 pm ET on October 19, 2019.

The game will be streamed on ESPN3. Bob Mihalic will handle play-by-play, while Sam Wyche supplies the analysis.

It is also part of this week’s “ESPN College Extra” package, available on some cable/satellite systems. On DirecTV, the game will be broadcast on Channel 792.

The contest can be heard on radio via the various affiliates of The Citadel Sports Network. WQNT-1450 AM [audio link], originating in Charleston, will be the flagship station. 

Luke Mauro (the “Voice of the Bulldogs”) calls the action alongside analyst Ted Byrne.

The Citadel Sports Network — 2019 radio affiliates

Charleston: WQNT 1450 AM/92.1 FM/102.1 FM (Flagship)
Columbia: WQXL 1470 AM/100.7 FM
Sumter: WDXY 1240 AM/105.9 FM

Links of interest:

– Preview from The Post and Courier

Meet the Macdaddy

“Jeff’s Take” from The Post and Courier

– Game notes from The Citadel and Furman

– SoCon weekly release

“Gameday Central” on The Citadel’s website

– Game preview on Furman’s website

– Preview from The Greenville News

– Brent Thompson’s weekly radio show (10/16)

– Brent Thompson’s weekly press conference (10/14)

– The Dogs:  Episode 8

There are two things fans going to the game definitely need to know. One is that Saturday is Furman’s Homecoming. The other, perhaps more momentous news: the Paladins are going to sell beer (and wine) at the stadium.

 

My thoughts on this are certainly not relevant to anyone, particularly Furman fans, since I am a graduate of The Citadel who doesn’t drink beer. Having said that, as this is my blog, I have a few observations.

  • “Patrons under 21 need to be accompanied by a parent” — surely this could have been worded better, unless they plan on serving any and all ‘patrons’, which would be problematic
  • Waiting until kickoff to start selling beer may not be a great idea, strictly on a logistics basis
  • You know selling beer at football games has become a full-fledged trend when Furman decides to start doing it

This appears to be a “soft opening”, as most (if not all) of the information surrounding the beer sales has originated from Twitter. Homecoming is either the ideal or worst time to debut this setup; I can’t decide which.

However, based on The Citadel’s experience selling beer at Johnson Hagood Stadium, I think the beer garden is a dubious proposition. If FU really wants to make money on selling beer (and wine), and also wants to use it as a way to bring people into the stadium who might otherwise not go to the game, then the school should simply sell it to folks sitting in the stands watching the game, just like any other concessions item.

Commit to the concept.

As for Furman’s attendance, which is almost certainly a factor in the decision to sell alcohol at football games, a quick review of the Paladins’ per-game attendance numbers since 2012.

  • 2012: 9,009*
  • 2013: 8,299
  • 2014: 7,229
  • 2015: 6,795*
  • 2016: 5,771
  • 2017: 7,775*
  • 2018: 6,139

*seasons in which The Citadel played at Paladin Stadium

The attendance for The Citadel’s 2015 game at Furman was 12,124. That is the largest attendance for any game at Paladin Stadium since 2011. The Bulldogs’ trip to Greenville in 2017 also produced the largest crowd for a Furman home game that season.

If you were wondering how Furman only averaged 6,795 fans per game in 2015 despite having 12,124 spectators show up for one of its five home matchups, the Paladins’ game against South Carolina State that season (a contest played in terrible weather conditions) had a total attendance of 1,022. Without even looking, I’m going to guess that is the lowest attendance in the history of Paladin Stadium.

At any rate, the decline in attendance for Furman over the last seven seasons is obviously of concern to its administration. Through three home games this year, Furman is averaging 6,281 fans. That number should increase following Saturday’s contest.

Brent Thompson confirmed on his Wednesday night radio show that Furman’s attendance numbers would be helped by an influx of about 450 freshman cadets. I was glad to hear that.

The Citadel has sent freshmen to several football games in recent years, a welcome development indeed. In the last five seasons, cadets have been bused to games at Wofford, Chattanooga, VMI, and (earlier this year) Georgia Tech.

A planned excursion to Samford in 2017 was scuttled by one of the now-annual hurricane evacuations, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a trip to Birmingham in the next few years. Next season, Mercer could easily be on the agenda, along with a repeat journey to Wofford or VMI.

I believe this will be the third consecutive time The Citadel has sent cadets to Greenville for the Furman game.

Okay, let’s talk about “rivalries” for a moment. This is the part of the post where I probably make a lot of people mad, but so be it.

Let me say up front that these are just my opinions, I know they are just my opinions, and I’m undoubtedly a terrible person for having these opinions.

From Jeff Hartsell’s column earlier this week:

Does The Citadel have too many rivalry games?

During my weekly chat with former Citadel offensive lineman Kyle Weaver (esteemed host of The Citadel Grayline), I asked Kyle to rank the Bulldogs’ various rivals in football. Weaver, who played on The Citadel’s Southern Conference championship teams in 2015 and 2016, went with Wofford, Charleston Southern, Furman and VMI in roughly that order. Ask another Bulldog, and you might get the same four teams in a different order.

I think it is possible that if you asked any other graduate of The Citadel, you would not get the order Weaver listed. Not that he doesn’t have a right to his opinion – after all, he’s an alum, and he wore the uniform of both a cadet and a football player.

That said, I could not disagree with him more.

First, to be fair, I don’t really think a school can have “too many rivalry games”. It certainly doesn’t seem to have hurt Auburn or LSU. Besides, a team should treat every game it plays like it is a rivalry game anyway.

As far as The Citadel is concerned, the school has two traditional rivals in football – Furman and VMI.

Those two schools have a long history with The Citadel; for Furman, there is also geographic proximity, while VMI is a fellow military college with a similar mission. The three institutions have also been in the SoCon together since 1935 (excepting VMI’s decade-long stay in the Big South).

You can rank them 1A and 1B, with the order generally dependent on an individual alum’s background and/or age.

Wofford’s series with The Citadel is also a lengthy one, but for much of that span the two schools were not in the same NCAA division, much less the same conference. There was also a significant period of time (between 1959 and 1975) in which they only faced each other once. That is essentially an entire generation of games not played.

(Of course, Texas and Texas A&M might currently be testing the “skip a generation” thesis.)

If there is such a thing as a “secondary rivalry”, Wofford and The Citadel might qualify. The two schools are now both in the SoCon, but that wasn’t the case when at least two-thirds of living graduates of The Citadel were in college. In fact, through the 1991 season, The Citadel had actually played Presbyterian 16 more times.

This is an issue. When it comes to Bulldog opponents, Wofford is still associated in some people’s memories with PC and Newberry. That perceived grouping isn’t true anymore, to be sure, but the mental affiliation remains a factor.

However, the more recent history is also why I can understand how a younger graduate, particularly a football player, might have a different perspective. I completely respect that.

(A more intriguing question might be this one: is Wofford a rival of Furman?)

When it comes to Charleston Southern, though, few alumni of The Citadel consider that to be a rivalry of any kind.

I’ve used this analogy before, but it still applies: at most county fairs, there is a guy in a ‘dunk tank’ who insults people, hoping they will spend money on baseballs to throw at him. That basically describes Jamey Chadwell’s efforts at CSU in trying to develop a rivalry between the two schools.

Was he aided by certain members of the local media? Sure, to the point where it was almost embarrassing (“inner-city rivalry”). Was he tacitly supported by the CSU administration? Yes (on that issue; perhaps not on others).

Did he/they succeed? Well, no. There was no chance of that happening, really.

A natural rivalry has to develop organically. Schools with little in common and no real history (which is the case for The Citadel and Charleston Southern) are a lot less likely to develop a rivalry.

Ultimately, there has to be interest on both sides. In the case of The Citadel and CSU, I’m not convinced there is much interest on either side. If you doubt that, take a closer look at attendance figures.

Anderson University announced two weeks ago that it was starting a football program. In five years or so, I fully expect someone to claim Anderson and Furman (or Wofford) are “big rivals”.

As for The Citadel, I’m sure Erskine is next on deck in the rivalry sweepstakes…

Furman statistics of note (six games):

Furman Opponents
Points Per Game 37.50 19.83
Rush Attempts (sacks taken out) 269 207
Yards per rush (sacks taken out) 6.90 5.34
Att-Comp-Int 108-64-4 194-130-6
Yards/pass attempt (sacks included) 7.85 5.35
Total Plays 387 413
Yards per play 7.19 5.35
Total punts 21 32
Punting Net Average 43.19 38.88
Penalties-Yards 25-231 33-242
Penalty yards per game 38.50 40.33
Time of Possession per game 32:14 27:46
Offensive plays per second 29.98 sec 24.20 sec
3rd Down Conversions 36-72 (50.00%) 34-82 (41.46%)
4th Down Conversions 3-5 (60.00%) 3-6 (50.00%)
Fumbles-Lost 8-4 10-5
Sacks-Yards Lost 12-59 10-67
Red Zone: Touchdowns 20/23 (87%) 12/20 (60%)
Turnover Margin 3 -3
Run play % (sacks are pass plays) 69.50% 50.12%

What follows are mostly random musings on the stats above, referencing the FCS national statistical rankings when appropriate.

One thing to keep in mind: two of Furman’s six games, and both of its losses, came against FBS competition (Georgia State and Virginia Tech). FU lost those two games by a total of 13 points — and frankly got jobbed on a terrible replay call against the Hokies, preventing a potential comeback.

The Paladins have triumphed over Charleston Southern (an easy win in the season opener), East Tennessee State (a tough defensive struggle), Mercer (a blowout victory at home), and Samford (a blowout victory on the road).

– Furman’s offense is second in all of FCS in both Red Zone scoring rate (a slightly overrated stat) and Red Zone TD rate (a very important stat). Only North Dakota State has a higher scoring rate in the Red Zone. The only team with a better TD rate in the Red Zone than the Paladins? North Dakota.

The Citadel’s offense is 30th nationally in Red Zone TD rate (72%). That ranks 2nd in the SoCon. Chattanooga (54%) has the lowest rate in the league (though that isn’t close to the dregs of the sub-division).

– The Paladins are 3rd in offensive yards per play, trailing only Kennesaw State and North Dakota State. The Bulldogs are in the bottom 20 in this statistic.

– Furman is 10th in offensive third down conversion rate (and also leads the SoCon, ahead of 13th-ranked Wofford). The Citadel is 54th.

– The Paladins are tied for 31st in turnover margin per game. The Citadel is tied for 57th.

VMI is 10th nationally, best in the league. Three conference squads (Mercer, Samford, and Western Carolina) are in the bottom 15.

– FU is 16th in time of possession. The Citadel is 2nd (just behind Yale; Wofford is 3rd).

Samford is last, but you knew that already. What you may not have known is that Mercer is next-to-last.

– After accounting for sacks, Furman’s defense allows almost the exact same yards per play on rushes as it does on pass attempts. It is uncanny.

That defensive yards per play allowed number is 40th-best nationally, second in the SoCon (behind ETSU). Princeton leads the category nationally, but has played fewer games against decidedly lesser competition than every other team in the top 50 save its fellow Ivy League schools.

The rest of the top five: Sam Houston State, Georgetown (this is the second year in a row the Hoyas have put up excellent defensive numbers), Kennesaw State, and South Dakota State.

The Citadel is in the bottom 30 in defensive yards allowed per play. Charleston Southern, a team both The Citadel and Furman have played, is fourth-worst in FCS, allowing just over seven yards per play.

– Furman is 2nd nationally in net punting. The Citadel is 7th, and may get its regular punter (Matthew Campbell) back this week. Gage Russell has done a fine job in Campbell’s absence, however.

– I was surprised that Furman’s opponents have only attempted six fourth-down conversions through six games.

As I noted in my review of the Western Carolina game, The Citadel is 15 for 21 (71.4%) converting 4th downs this year, ranking among the FCS leaders in both attempts (tied for 4th nationally) and conversions (3rd). Among teams with 10+ tries on fourth down, the Bulldogs are 4th in conversion percentage.

Furman starting quarterback Darren Grainger (6’4″, 195 lbs.) is a redshirt freshman from Conway who is having an excellent year for the Paladins. For the season, he is completing 59.6% of his passes, averaging 9.84 yards per attempt (not accounting for sacks), with 11 TD throws against just two interceptions.

Grainger also averages a little over nine rushing attempts per game (with a long of 33 yards). He has four rushing TDs. Last season, he played in four games for Furman, but did not see the field against The Citadel.

Running back Devin Wynn (6’0″, 203 lbs.), a junior from Greensboro, Georgia, is averaging 8.4 yards per carry this season. He had 217 rushing yards against Samford, and added a 61-yard TD reception just for good measure. Last season against the Bulldogs, Wynn had 86 rushing yards on just nine attempts.

Wynn, who also returns kicks for Furman, was a preseason second-team All-SoCon selection, as was wideout Thomas Gordon (6’0″, 178 lbs.). The senior from Charlotte leads the Paladins in receptions with 24, four of which have gone for touchdowns. He is averaging almost 17 yards per catch.

By sacred rule, I have to mention Furman’s starting tight end, who traditionally runs wide open across the middle of the field at least three times during any game against The Citadel, no matter who he is. This year, he is sophomore Ryan Miller (6’4″, 214 lbs.), who has TD receptions of 41 and 32 yards this season.

Furman’s projected starters on the offensive line average 6’5″, 292 lbs. The line has a lot of experience, although there does appear to be some question as to who will start at center.

Left guard Reed Kroeber (6’4″, 302 lbs.) is a redshirt junior who has also played center and tackle for the Paladins during his career. The native of Roswell, Georgia has made 28 starts during his career.

Lining up next to Kroeber is left tackle Bo Layton (6’7″, 287 lbs.), a redshirt junior from Knoxville who was a first-team all-SoCon pick after last season. The other starting tackle, Andy Godwin (6’4″, 283 lbs.) was a preseason second team all-conference pick. Godwin is a redshirt senior from Neptune Beach, Florida.

The player who lines up at noseguard is often an important factor in how a team defends the triple option. Furman’s starter at that position is mobile fire hydrant Taylor Hodge (5’9″, 255 lbs.). The sophomore has four starts this season. (Yes, I triple-checked the height/weight line.)

The Paladins’ defense is keyed by its linebackers. Senior “spur” Jordan Willis (6’0″, 207 lbs.) leads the team in tackles, and is second in tackles for loss. Willis had 11 stops in last year’s game versus The Citadel.

Adrian Hope (6’1″, 218 lbs.) had 15 sacks last season (including one against the Bulldogs) despite not starting a game. As a result, he was a first-team all-conference choice, and not surprisingly the sophomore from Ocala, Florida was a preseason first team all-league pick this year.

Elijah McKoy (6’2″, 225 lbs.), a junior from Rome, Georgia, was a preseason second-team all-SoCon pick.

Despite being third on the team in tackles so far this season, McKoy is actually listed as a backup on the two-deep at middle linebacker, behind Braden Gilby (6’2″, 233 lbs.). Gilby, a redshirt freshman from St. Petersburg (not the one in Russia), ranks second in tackles for the Paladins.

Free safety Bryan Okeh (6’4″, 216 lbs.) has the most starts of any Paladin defender (31). The senior from Powder Springs, Georgia intercepted his first career pass earlier this season against Mercer.

Grayson Atkins (5’10”, 188 lbs.), a junior from Inman, has made 16 consecutive field goals, a streak that dates back to last season. His career long is 53 yards. He was last season’s all-conference placekicker.

Atkins is also Furman’s punter and kickoff specialist. He is very good at those roles, too (some may remember his 81-yard punt against The Citadel last year). Matthew Campbell and Atkins are the two best punters in the league.

Furman’s primary punt returner is starting cornerback Amir Trapp (5’10”, 170 lbs.). Trapp, who began his college career at Clemson, is the son of former Tiger (and NFL defensive back/Olympic gold medalist) James Trapp.

Odds and ends:

– The weather forecast for Saturday in Greenville, per the National Weather Service: a 30%-60% chance of rain, with a high of 64 degrees. There is a 70% chance of showers in the evening.

The possibility of rain during the game has steadily increased over the course of the week (and the anticipated high temperature has fallen as well).

– Per one source that deals in such matters, Furman is an 18-point favorite over The Citadel. The over/under is 53 1/2.

Through seven games, The Citadel is 3-4 ATS, with the over hitting twice.

– Other lines involving SoCon teams: Chattanooga is a 3 1/2 point favorite over East Tennessee State in a Thursday night game; Wofford is a 24 1/2 point favorite over Western Carolina; and Mercer is a 1 1/2 point favorite over VMI. Samford is off this week.

In games between FCS schools, the biggest spread is 40, with North Dakota State the favorite over Missouri State. Also of note: Kennesaw State is a 37 1/2 point road favorite over Presbyterian.

– Massey Ratings: The Citadel is ranked 63rd in FCS. The Paladins are 15th.

Massey projects the Bulldogs to have a 16% chance of winning, with a predicted final score of Furman 31, The Citadel 17.

The top five teams in Massey’s FCS rankings this week: North Dakota State, Montana, South Dakota State, James Madison, and Dartmouth.

Other rankings this week of varied interest: Villanova is 10th, Idaho State 12th, Kennesaw State 16th, Central Arkansas 20th, North Carolina A&T 24th, Elon 28th, Towson 31st, Incarnate Word 35th, Central Connecticut State 38th, Jacksonville State 44th, Wofford 47th, McNeese State 50th, Florida A&M 54th, Richmond 56th, Chattanooga 59th, William & Mary 60th, Samford 62nd, VMI 68th, Columbia 72nd, East Tennessee State 78th, South Carolina State 83rd, Campbell 85th, Charleston Southern 91st, Mercer 93rd, Gardner-Webb 94th, Davidson 97th, Lafayette 104th, Western Carolina 111th, LIU 117th, Jacksonville 122nd, and Presbyterian 126th (last).

– Furman’s notable alumni include Boston Pops conductor Keith Lockhart, physicist Charles Townes, and journalist Eleanor Beardsley.

– Future non-conference FBS opponents for Furman include Tennessee (in 2020), North Carolina State (2021), Clemson (2022 and 2025), South Carolina (2023), and Mississippi (2024). The Paladins also have home-and-home series scheduled with Colgate and North Carolina A&T, and play at Kennesaw State in 2023 (I believe that is the return game for a 2016 matchup).

– Furman’s roster includes 34 players from the state of Georgia. Other states represented: South Carolina (18 players), Florida (12), North Carolina (10), Tennessee (9), Alabama (6), Maryland (2), Texas (2), Virginia (2), and one each from California and Illinois.

The 18 Palmetto State products on the Paladins’ squad represent 16 different high schools, with two each from Southside Christian (in Simpsonville) and St. Joseph’s (Greenville).

However, in what can only be described as a colossal error in recruiting, none of the Paladins are from legendary mega-gridiron superpower Orangeburg-Wilkinson High School. The hopes of Furman’s football program, whether modest or monstrous, will be forever doomed if Clay Hendrix and the rest of his coaching staff continues to ignore the incredible talents who wear the famed maroon and orange.

– The Citadel’s geographic roster breakdown (per the school’s website) is as follows: South Carolina (53 players), Georgia (29), Florida (8), Texas (5), North Carolina (3), Pennsylvania (3), Alabama (2), New York (2), and one each from Virginia, Nebraska, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Ohio, and Kentucky.

In addition, there are two Bulldogs with listed hometowns in other countries — junior tight end Elijah Lowe (Abaco, Bahamas), and freshman linebacker Hayden Williamson (Okinawa, Japan).

– This week’s two-deep for The Citadel is almost exactly the same as the depth chart from last week. The only change is that Clay Harris (now presumably healthy) is again listed as the projected starter at B-back.

– The Citadel has an all-time record of 4-10 for games played on October 19. Among the highlights from past contests:

  • 1912: The Bulldogs edged Porter Military Academy, 66-0. C.D. Gibson and Billy Folger each scored three touchdowns for The Citadel. I’ve written about this one before. The reporter covering the game for The News and Courier wrote that Porter was “plucky” and claimed the “game was a good one in spite of the score…Porter played [a] hard game, while Cadets’ work was loose in spots”. There is no telling what he would have said if the contest had actually been close. The paper also ran an advertisement for castor oil with the tag line “Children like it — it does ’em good”, so there was clearly a severe lack of editorial control at the local newspaper during this era.
  • 1957: On a chilly evening at Johnson Hagood Stadium, an estimated 11,000 spectators watched The Citadel shut out Richmond, 26-0. Bobby Schwarze threw three TD passes, two to Paul Maguire and one to Joe Chefalo. Fullback Ed Dzanis scored the other TD on a one-yard run. Dzanis also intercepted a pass, as did Barry Thomas (who led the Bulldogs in rushing, with 85 yards on eight carries).
  • 1963: The Citadel prevailed over Arkansas State, 10-9. Pat Green’s 37-yard field goal on the game’s final play proved decisive. Arkansas State had taken the lead with 36 seconds to play, but four completed passes from Wade St. John (three to Wes Matthews, one to Vince Petno) set up Green’s heroics. The Bulldogs’ lone TD came on a 72-yard run by Converse Chellis, aided by a block from Joe Missar.
  • 1968: The Bulldogs won a Parents’ Day affair over VMI, 13-8. Tony Passander threw for one TD and ran for the other. The touchdown pass was an 80-yarder to Tom Sanchez, and was at the time the longest in school history. The Citadel’s defense forced three turnovers — a pass interception by Billy Watson and fumble recoveries by Eddie Watkins and Joe Isaac.

This will not be an easy game for The Citadel. Furman is probably the SoCon’s best team (and has certainly performed in that manner to this point in the season). The Bulldogs surely feel better about themselves after a solid victory over Western Carolina, but the Paladins present a far more imposing challenge.

However, it isn’t an impossible task. The Citadel has to play near its best, but the Bulldogs don’t have to be perfect. They just have to be outstanding.

I think a big key to the game is for The Citadel to control the clock on offense and avoid an early turnover. If the weather becomes a factor, as increasingly appears to be the case, ball security is paramount (even more so than usual).

Defensively, the Bulldogs must prevent big plays (occasionally a problem this season for The Citadel) and take advantage of any Paladin mistakes, as there aren’t likely to be many. Finding a way to put pressure on Grainger, a mobile QB protected by a fine offensive line, will be very difficult. It will also be necessary.

If the Bulldogs’ special teams could pull off a couple of game-changing plays, that would be very handy as well.

Are all of those points obvious? Yes. Then again, football is frequently obvious.

I hope the Bulldogs play well on Saturday. I also think they will.

Ruminating about ratings — 2019 preseason numbers for The Citadel, SoCon, FCS, and more

Recent posts about football at The Citadel:

“Advanced” statistics from The Citadel’s 2018 football season

– Inside the Numbers, Part 1: The Citadel’s 2018 run/pass tendencies and yards per play statistics, with SoCon/FCS discussion as well

– Inside the Numbers, Part 2: The Citadel’s 2018 4th down decision-making, plus Red Zone stats, 3rd down conversion info, etc.

– Football attendance at The Citadel (and elsewhere) — an annual review

– 2019 preseason rankings and ratings, featuring The Citadel and the rest of the SoCon

– During the 2019 football season, which teams will the Bulldogs’ opponents play before (and after) facing The Citadel?

– Homecoming at The Citadel — a brief gridiron history

Other links of interest:

– Cam Jackson, playing American football in Turkey (and enjoying dessert)

Brandon Rainey talks about the upcoming season, and about closure

Dante Smith had a very good game against Alabama; is ready to have even more very good games this season

Bulldogs hold first scrimmage in the heat of Charleston

Usually, I discuss the Massey Ratings at the same time that I write about the preseason rankings from the various college football magazines. This year, because the ratings came out a little later, I decided to have two posts, one for rankings (which can be read here) and one for ratings.

I’m going to also briefly delve into several other preseason computer ratings for FCS teams. There will be a table!

For several years now, I’ve been incorporating the Massey Ratings into my game previews. For those not entirely familiar with this ratings system, here is an explanation:

The Massey Ratings are designed to measure past performance, not necessarily to predict future outcomes…overall team rating is a merit based quantity, and is the result of applying a Bayesian win-loss correction to the power rating.

…In contrast to the overall rating, the Power is a better measure of potential and is less concerned with actual wins-losses.

…A team’s Offense power rating essentially measures the ability to score points. This does not distinguish how points are scored, so good defensive play that leads to scoring will be reflected in the Offense rating. In general, the offensive rating can be interpreted as the number of points a team would be expected to score against an average defense.

Similarly, a team’s Defense power rating reflects the ability to prevent its opponent from scoring. An average defense will be rated at zero. Positive or negative defensive ratings would respectively lower or raise the opponent’s expected score accordingly.

…the Massey model will in some sense minimize the unexplained error (noise). Upsets will occur and it is impossible (and also counter-productive) to get an exact fit to the actual game outcomes. Hence, I publish an estimated standard deviation. About 68% of observed game results will fall within one standard deviation of the expected (“average”) result.

Preseason ratings are typically derived as a weighted average of previous years’ final ratings. As the current season progresses, their effect gets damped out completely. The only purpose preseason ratings serve is to provide a reasonable starting point for the computer. Mathematically, they guarantee a unique solution to the equations early in the season when not enough data is available yet.

As I’ve mentioned before, Massey has ratings for almost every college football team — not just FBS and FCS squads, but D-2, D-3, NAIA, junior colleges, and Canadian schools. This season, there are preseason ratings for 927 colleges and universities in the United States and Canada, from Clemson (#1) to Vermilion Community College (#927).

Vermilion is located in Ely, Minnesota. The Ironmen were 1-7 last season (1-5 in the Minnesota College Athletic Conference).

This year, The Citadel is #176 overall in the preseason ratings. In previous campaigns, the Bulldogs had overall preseason rankings of 218 (in 2018), 130 (2017), 113 (2016) and 174 (2015).

The teams on The Citadel’s 2019 schedule are ranked in the ratings as follows (with the chances of a Bulldogs victory in parenthesis):

  • Towson: 151 (45%)
  • Elon: 161 (36%)
  • Georgia Tech: 54 (3%)
  • Charleston Southern: 245 (86%)
  • Samford: 148 (32%)
  • VMI: 249 (85%)
  • Western Carolina: 220 (75%)
  • Furman: 153 (34%)
  • Mercer: 181 (58%)
  • East Tennessee State: 192 (50%)
  • Chattanooga: 183 (47%)
  • Wofford: 138 (39%)

Going by the ratings, a Massey preseason poll for the SoCon would look like this:

1 – Wofford
2 – Samford
3 – Furman
4 – The Citadel
5 – Mercer
6 – Chattanooga
7 – East Tennessee State
8 – Western Carolina
9 – VMI

Massey’s FCS-only rankings (ratings) for select schools:

  • North Dakota State – 1
  • South Dakota State – 2
  • Eastern Washington – 3
  • Princeton – 4
  • Dartmouth – 5
  • UC Davis – 6
  • James Madison – 7
  • Northern Iowa – 8
  • Illinois State – 9
  • Weber State – 10
  • Colgate – 11
  • Harvard – 15
  • Kennesaw State – 19
  • Wofford – 21
  • Samford – 24
  • Towson – 26
  • Furman – 28
  • Elon – 33
  • Jacksonville State – 38
  • The Citadel – 46
  • Mercer – 49
  • Chattanooga – 51
  • North Carolina A&T – 54
  • East Tennessee State – 55
  • San Diego – 58
  • Duquesne – 59
  • Richmond – 61
  • Alcorn State – 70
  • Western Carolina – 75
  • Charleston Southern – 87
  • VMI – 91
  • South Carolina State – 94
  • Campbell – 96
  • North Alabama – 103
  • Gardner-Webb – 104
  • LIU – 110
  • Davidson – 114
  • Hampton – 117
  • Jacksonville – 118
  • Presbyterian – 122
  • Mississippi Valley State – 125
  • Merrimack -126

In the “overall” category, some schools of note:

  • Clemson – 1
  • Alabama – 2
  • Georgia – 3
  • LSU – 4
  • Oklahoma – 5
  • Ohio State – 6
  • Notre Dame – 7
  • Florida – 8
  • Texas A&M – 9
  • Auburn – 10
  • Syracuse – 15
  • Texas – 16
  • Washington – 17
  • Missouri – 18
  • Kentucky – 19
  • UCF – 20
  • Fresno State – 25
  • North Dakota State – 26 (highest-rated FCS team)
  • Stanford – 27
  • South Carolina – 34
  • North Carolina State – 35
  • Virginia – 40
  • Wake Forest – 42
  • Miami (FL) – 44
  • Appalachian State – 47
  • Vanderbilt – 49
  • Army – 50
  • Georgia Tech – 54
  • Southern California – 56
  • Florida State – 59
  • Ohio – 66
  • Marshall – 71
  • Air Force – 79
  • Georgia Southern – 85
  • Navy – 98
  • North Texas – 99
  • Rutgers – 103
  • Oregon State – 116
  • Coastal Carolina – 127
  • Liberty – 131
  • Laval – 155 (highest-rated Canadian team)
  • Connecticut – 169
  • Ferris State – 174 (highest-rated D-2 team)
  • Rice – 179
  • Laney College – 184 (highest-rated junior college team)
  • UTEP – 191
  • Mary Hardin-Baylor – 227 (highest-rated D-3 team)
  • Morningside (IA) – 237 (highest-rated NAIA team)

Of course, the Massey Ratings aren’t the only ratings out there. On his website, Massey himself lists 19 other services, some of which include FCS teams in their respective ratings. Not all of those have preseason ratings, however.

There appear to be five other ratings systems (on his list, anyway) that have updated preseason FCS ratings. I decided to create a table in order to compare the ratings (by rankings) of 17 different FCS schools — the nine SoCon institutions, along with The Citadel’s three non-conference FCS opponents this season (Towson, Elon, and Charleston Southern), two other instate schools (Presbyterian and South Carolina State), and three other solid programs in the league footprint (Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, and North Carolina A&T).

Like any good table, there is a key:

Drum roll…

The table (remember, these are rankings only for the 126 FCS teams; i.e., VMI is the preseason #91 team among all FCS squads in the Massey Ratings):

Team A B C D E F
The Citadel 46 24 43 36 39 59
VMI 91 111 114 107 106 120
Furman 28 33 20 25 27 32
Wofford 21 22 13 17 13 13
Chattanooga 51 49 54 42 33 43
ETSU 55 56 31 65 83 19
Samford 24 23 25 24 20 52
WCU 75 82 86 78 76 99
Mercer 49 54 56 48 41 67
Towson 26 29 11 28 18 23
Elon 33 36 24 40 38 26
Ch. Southern 87 83 62 74 97 62
Presbyterian 122 115 115 112 112 114
S.C. State 94 85 88 81 71 71
Kennesaw St. 19 5 7 9 15 8
N.C. A&T 54 37 18 37 53 11
Jacksonville St. 38 26 6 12 10 16

While some teams have fairly small groupings in terms of rankings among the services (such as Furman, Wofford, and Presbyterian), others differ wildly (particularly East Tennessee State and North Carolina A&T).

I was perhaps most surprised by the generally solid rankings for Samford, which comes across as a borderline top 25 preseason pick in these ratings. That certainly isn’t how SU has been perceived in the various rankings that have been released this summer, either league or national.

A few other things I’ll mention that aren’t reflected in the table:

– Entropy System’s preseason #1 FCS team isn’t North Dakota State, but South Dakota State. Hmm…

–  CSL included Virginia University of Lynchburg in its rankings. VUL is not an FCS school, but the computer program that put together the list may have thought it was, given that the Dragons play seven FCS opponents this season (Merrimack, Davidson, Mississippi Valley State, Prairie View A&M, Hampton, Southern, and Morgan State).

All of those games are on the road — in fact, the Dragons will play ten road games in 2019. VUL, a member of the National Christian Colleges Athletic Association (NCCAA), has two home games this year.

For the purposes of this post, I removed Virginia University of Lynchburg from the CSL Ratings, so that all the teams ranked were actually FCS squads.

– LIU, which will field an FCS team for the first time (having combined varsity programs at its two branch campuses), is ranked #22 by CSL, probably because the then-Pioneers (new nickname: Sharks!) were 10-1 in D-2 last season. Considering LIU did not play a Division I team last season, that high of a preseason ranking seems a bit dubious. We’ll know rather quickly just how dubious it is, as LIU opens its season at South Dakota State.

The overall situation with LIU is quite interesting. Basically, a D-2 varsity athletics program is being folded into an existing D-1 setup. Not everyone was happy about that decision.

College basketball fans may be familiar with the LIU Blackbirds, which made the NCAA tourney a few times and once played home games in the old Paramount Theater in Brooklyn. Now there are no Blackbirds, and no Pioneers (from the LIU-Post campus). Everyone is a blue-and-gold Shark.

LIU-Brooklyn didn’t have a football team, unlike LIU-Post. Thus, the D-2 football program is simply moving up to D-1 — but because it is going to be part of an already existing D-1 athletics program, it doesn’t have to go through a “transition” period and is immediately eligible to compete for the NEC title and an NCAA playoff berth.

– Steve Pugh is the creator/publisher of the “Compughter Ratings”. He has a master’s degree from Virginia Tech, as does Ken Massey. Apparently VT grad students spend most of their waking hours coming up with sports ratings systems.

– The Laz Index also rates Florida high school football teams. It has done so since 1999.

– Along with college football, the Born Power Index rates high school football teams in Pennsylvania and New Jersey — in fact, it was used last year by the New Jersey Interscholastic Athletic Association to rank playoff teams in that state.

This didn’t go over too well:

There has been a tremendous amount of criticism heaped on the NJSIAA for the new United Power Rankings.  A complicated formula that no one is 100 percent sure is accurate at any time, it basically breaks the ranking of teams into numbers – The Born Power Index and average power points.

The Born Power Index has been around since 1962, and is a mathematical rating system which somehow, determines how good a team is. Somehow, I say, because the formula is proprietary, and William Born, its creator, is not sharing with the public. That lack of transparency has a lot of people bothered.

The index will apparently not be a part of the “power ranking” for the New Jersey high school football playoffs this season.

– Five of the six ratings systems have Princeton in the top 7. The exception is the Compughter Ratings, which has the Tigers ranked 19th. On the other hand, fellow Ivy League school Dartmouth is ranked 12th by the Compughter Ratings.

Entropy has both Princeton and Dartmouth in the top 5, and Harvard ranked 14th among FCS schools. Massey also has Princeton and Dartmouth in the top 5; Harvard is 15th in that service.

Ivy League schools with high ratings (and rankings) are the norm for most of these college football ratings services. I think this is a bug, not a feature.

Personally, I find it difficult to justify ranking Princeton and Dartmouth in the top five, or even the top 20 for that matter. That said, the Tigers and Big Green might be very good.

However, the Ivy Leaguers’ lack of schedule connectivity with the vast majority of their FCS brethren — particularly the more highly-regarded teams — makes it all but impossible to compare those squads to the elite outfits in the sub-division. For example, in 2019 none of the Ivies will face a team from the MVFC, Big Sky, SoCon, Southland, OVC, Big South, or SWAC.

Here is a list of all the non-conference games played by Ivy League schools this season against teams ranked in the STATS preseason Top 25:

  • Dartmouth hosts #13 Colgate
  • Cornell hosts #13 Colgate
  • Penn is at #22 Delaware

Princeton has been the standard-bearer for the league in recent years. The Tigers host Lafayette and Butler, and travel to Bucknell. Those three teams were a combined 8-25 last season; this year, their respective preseason Massey rankings in FCS are 100, 112, and 108.

It is very hard to say that Princeton is one of the best FCS teams in the country when there is no practical way to demonstrate the validity of such a statement.

At any rate, we’re getting even closer and closer to football season, which is all that really matters.