Reviewing Samford-The Citadel: a very pleasant day in Charleston

Advanced stats from an enjoyable afternoon at Johnson Hagood Stadium:

Samford The Citadel
Starting Field Position Average 22.33 37.15
Offensive Success Rate 48.5% 42.9%
Big plays (20+ yards) 0 4
Finishing drives inside 40 (average points) 2.2 4.0
Turnovers 3 0
Expected turnovers 1.66 0.72
Possessions 12 13
Points per possession 0.92 2.15
Offensive Plays 68 63
Offensive rush play % 44.12% 68.25%
Yards/rush (sack-adjusted) 3.73 4.07
Yards/pass attempt (sack-adjusted) 5.39 6.35
Yards/play 4.78 4.79
3rd down conversions 33.3% (4/12) 41.2% (7/17)
4th down conversions 0 of 2 1 of 1
Red Zone TD% 50.0% 80.0%
Net punting 31.25 50.00
Time of possession 28:03 31:57
TOP/offensive play 24.39 seconds 29.95 seconds
Penalties 5 for 34 yards 5 for 47 yards
1st down passing 16/22, 134 yards, 2 INT 3/5, 44 yards
3rd and long passing 5/6, 2 sacks, 40 net yards 3/6, 54 yards
4th down passing 0/0 0/0
1st down yards/play 5.82 6.00
3rd down average yards to go 7.92 4.76
Defensive 3-and-outs+ 4 (of 13) 5 (of 12)

Housekeeping regarding the above:

  • The Citadel’s final possession of the second half and Samford’s final possession of the first half (both one-play kneel-downs) are not included in any of the categories, except for time of possession and TOP/offensive play.
  • It should be noted that absent Samford’s final drive of the game, when The Citadel appeared to be playing a very loose variation of “prevent defense”, SU would have averaged an offensive success rate of 42.6%, a yards/play rate of 4.10, and a first down yards/play rate of 5.0 (just to list three category examples).

Random observations:

– The quickest way to explain The Citadel’s overall dominance on Saturday is probably field position. Samford started just one drive beyond its own 30-yard line, and had five drives start at its own 20 or further back (two inside the 10-yard line). Conversely, The Citadel had five drives start in SU territory.

The Citadel’s four touchdown drives all started on Samford’s side of the field. The average starting field position for the Cadets on those TD marches was the SU 33 (technically the 32.5 yard line).

Samford punted four times during the game. Two of those punts came with the line of scrimmage at SU’s 3-yard line and 1-yard line. The Citadel’s defense did a great job of maintaining a field position edge in those situations (both of those possessions were three-and-outs).

The Citadel also intercepted two passes (on the first Samford offensive play of each half), both of which resulted in great field position for the home team.

– The other factor in the tilting of the field, of course, was The Citadel’s punt unit. James Platte had an incredible day booting the ball, with a net punting average of 50.0 on five punts. Samford’s average field position following those punts was its own 14.8 yard line.

For the afternoon, The Citadel’s advantage in net punting was 18.75 yards, an enormous edge.

I cannot remember a more memorable punting exhibition by a Bulldog at Johnson Hagood Stadium. Platte’s booming kicks drew audible ‘oohs’ and ‘aahs’ from the admiring crowd, as the punts were aesthetically pleasing as well as effective — tight spirals launched into the Charleston sky.

– It was not an easy day for two of the three placekickers who saw action. Samford was 1 for 2 on field goal tries, missing a 21-yarder early in the 4th quarter that would have brought SU within one score.

Meanwhile, The Citadel missed all three of its field goal attempts. I suspect that Maurice Drayton would take responsibility for the misfire on the first try, though, a 52-yarder that came after the coach intentionally took a delay-of-game penalty in an effort to draw Samford offside. It wasn’t a great idea, and looked worse when the kick fell short by about two yards.

– I mentioned three placekickers, though. Who was the third placekicker, you ask?

Well, he was a bagpiper named Richard…

The regimental band performed at halftime, putting on a nice show. One of the bagpipers was then chosen to be the contestant for the fan placekicking contest that usually takes place at the end of the third quarter.

Richard stepped up to the challenge. Was he wearing a kilt and a pouch as he kicked? Of course. He also wore the white boot that is part of The Citadel’s traditional bagpiper uniform on his left foot, and what appeared to be a cleat on his right (which he used to kick).

A breeze was beginning to swirl inside the stadium, which might explain why his first kick ricocheted off the left post. However, he had two tries from the initial distance to convert the field goal, and his second effort sailed through the uprights.

That led to the big moment, a 30-yard one-time attempt to win free pizza for a year. The pressure was on, but Richard’s kick was a no-doubter, hammered straight and true, flying above the crossbar with room to spare.

– While Drayton might have erred on the sequence leading to The Citadel’s first field goal attempt, the coach correctly challenged a spot late in the first half, a critical move that resulted in the Bulldogs picking up a key first down and maintaining possession. It was important at that time to deny Samford a chance to score again before the half ended.

The missed spot was by almost two full yards. Everyone in the stands saw that The Citadel had picked up the first down (a 10-yard pass from Johnathan Bennett to Dervon Pesnell, a nice play on both ends). The officials on the field had other ideas, however.

I was a little worried the replay review booth would not overrule the spot, as The Citadel has not had much luck with reviews this season, but justice prevailed.

It wasn’t the only spotting error of the game, just the most obvious. This has been an ongoing problem for SoCon officials over the years.

– Going for the jugular alert: with 3:58 to play, The Citadel took possession at Samford’s 44-yard line after the defense held on a fourth down attempt (Cale Williams with a rather emphatic stop). With a 21-3 lead, I expected to see a lot of runs up the middle to drain clock (or force Samford to use its remaining timeouts).

Naturally, the first play from scrimmage was a 27-yard pass play from Bennett to Pesnell (a great catch by Pesnell along the sideline).

That play call seemed to come out of left field, and I’m not sure it was the right thing to do in terms of the game state, but you know what? Sometimes you have to break tendencies, even when you’re in a position of strength. More power to the offensive staff. (And the bottom line is that it worked.)

From there, the Bulldogs ran the ball on six consecutive plays, with Bennett eventually scoring.

– I occasionally got concerned with the constant defensive rotations. Sometimes, multiple Bulldogs would race onto and off the field on plays for which Samford did not substitute. On those plays, I was worried The Citadel would not be ready at the snap — but that never happened.

“Samford has a high-powered offense, and we talked a lot about that,” said Citadel defensive lineman Chris Iverson, who finished with five tackles, including one for loss and a sack. “Samford’s tempo has been a problem for a lot of people, so we put a lot of emphasis on lining up quickly and communicating.”

The constant changing of personnel was obviously effective. On the afternoon, 23 different players for The Citadel registered at least one tackle (including placekicker Ben Barnes). Cale Williams led with 8 stops, while Je’Mazin Roberts had 7 and a forced fumble. DaVonyae Pettis had two of the Bulldogs’ eight tackles for loss (including a sack).

– Against Mercer last week, Samford’s offense had plays of 38, 77, 41, 35, 24, and 23 yards.

On Saturday, Samford’s longest offensive play from scrimmage was 19 yards.

– For a guy with a decent record against The Citadel, Chris Hatcher has certainly had a few games to forget in Charleston. This was one of them.

– Announced attendance: 8,977. I was a little concerned when I arrived on Saturday, as the parking lots were not exactly full. However, a decent-sized crowd eventually made its way inside the stadium.

There were very few Samford fans at the game. That is a long trip from Birmingham, though.

– It is one thing for a crowd to rush the field after a win. It is perhaps a bit unusual, however, for a team to rush the crowd (in this case, the student section) after a win, which the Bulldogs did following the Alma Mater.

I liked that a lot. Let’s see more of it, please.

– After the game, seniors and freshmen were awarded overnights. Juniors and sophomores had to be back on campus by 0100 hours.

It was a decidedly unusual combination of overnights/no overnights. The PA announcer informed the crowd that the freshmen had been granted overnights with “the authorization of the chairman of the Board of Visitors, Greg Delancey.”

(He meant Greg Delleney.)

– The Citadel is now 9-6-1 all-time for games played on October 26, including a 7-2-1 record at home on that date.

Saturday’s win was the biggest for The Citadel on October 26 since a 25-0 shutout of Oglethorpe in 1940, a game played at the “original” Johnson Hagood Stadium.

That was also a contest featuring strong defense and special teams play, as the Bulldogs held the Stormy Petrels to just 38 yards of total offense (and 0-for-6 passing). The Citadel’s Hank Foster returned a punt for a touchdown that day, while Ben Suitt blocked an Oglethorpe punt, setting up his own TD four plays later (the second of two TDs for Suitt).

The other touchdown for the Bulldogs was scored by Joe Bolduc. The Citadel missed on three of its four PAT attempts; perhaps placekicking is not meant to be on October 26, unless you are wearing a kilt.

The Bulldogs now get a much-needed bye week before finishing the season with three games. The first of those will be The Citadel’s last game of the season at Johnson Hagood Stadium, a Homecoming affair against Chattanooga. The final two contests will be road trips to the Upstate to face Wofford and Clemson.

I’m looking forward to Homecoming, which is always a fun time on campus. Chattanooga will be a tough opponent, but The Citadel should enter that matchup with a good deal of newfound confidence, particularly on defense.

It is good to see on-field progress being made. It is even better when that progress is reflected in victories.

McAlister Musings, 2017-18: Time for some really fast hoops (hopefully with winning involved)

Links of interest:

Season preview, The Post and Courier

Bulldogs add freshmen to mix

School website preview

League preview, The Post and Courier (The Citadel is picked to finish 7th in the SoCon, out of 10 teams)

Preseason league polls and preseason all-SoCon team (The Citadel is tied for 7th in the coaches’ poll and 8th in the media poll)

NBC Sports league preview (The Citadel is picked to finish 9th)

Blue Ribbon yearbook league preview [not online] (The Citadel is picked to finish 8th)

CBS Sports all-Division I preseason rankings (The Citadel is picked 248th out of 351 D-1 teams, 7th in the SoCon)

Kenpom.com preseason rankings (The Citadel is picked 247th out of 351 D-1 teams, 8th in the SoCon)

ESPN “BPI” preseason rankings (The Citadel is picked 243rd out of 351 D-1 teams, 7th in the SoCon)

2017-18 schedule

2017-18 “Quick Facts”

2017-18 “Hype Video”

Box score of exhibition game at Lenoir-Rhyne (The Citadel lost 97-83)

Box score of exhibition game versus Coker (The Citadel won 122-98)

Hey, it’s time for basketball!

 

No, seriously, it is!

This isn’t really a detailed preview. It is more just an acknowledgement that the season is starting.

A few quick points:

– The Citadel isn’t picked last in the league in any preseason poll, and is generally slotted in the 7-8 range (out of 10 SoCon teams). That’s a step up from recent seasons.

– While the team will still be quite young (no seniors), and a lot of freshmen are on the scene (six), there is actually a lot of returning experience.

When taking into account last year’s numbers, here is what The Citadel has coming back in terms of the various statistical categories, by percentage:

  • Starts: 70.3%
  • Minutes: 69.5%
  • Field goal attempts: 75.6%
  • 3-point field goal attempts: 79.0%
  • Free throw attempts: 75.3%
  • Offensive rebounds: 75.7%
  • Defensive rebounds: 68.6%
  • Total rebounds: 71.2%
  • Fouls: 68.4%
  • Assists: 71.8%
  • Blocks: 64.7%
  • Steals: 73.9%
  • Points: 74.8%

From the school preview release:

Last season, the Bulldogs played at a fast pace and scored in bunches, leading the nation in points per game and ranking in the top-10 in the nation in six other statistical categories. This year, head coach Duggar Baucom wants his young squad to move even faster and score even more.

“We’re going to try to play a little bit faster than we did last season. Last year, we isolated players a little bit more, forcing them to create their own shots, but this year we’re hoping that the offense will create shots for the players,” Baucom said. “The players are getting used to it. It’s a little bit of a style change for the guys who were here last year, but hopefully it will help us play faster and score some more points.”

If The Citadel is really going to play faster this season, that is going to be noteworthy.

Last year, the Bulldogs were second nationally in both adjusted and raw tempo, averaging a shade over 80 possessions per game. I don’t know what Baucom has in mind in terms of a possessions per game average, but he hasn’t had a team with an adjusted tempo significantly higher than last season’s outfit since 2010 (when his VMI team averaged 85 possessions per game).

Baucom’s 2007 squad at VMI is the last Division I team to average over 90 possessions per game against D-1 opponents. That team lost 19 games but also got to the final of the Big South tournament, after the coach “dialed down” the pace during the conference tourney.

If The Citadel could come even close to replicating the pace of the 2007 Keydets with the current talent on the Bulldog roster, that might really be something to watch.

It could be wildly exciting. It could also be a train wreck.

Early-season schedule (first three games)…

Oglethorpe, November 10 at McAlister Field House, 3:00 pm (SoCon Digital Network)

Oglethorpe is a Division III school located in north Atlanta that went 10-16 last season. The team nickname is the Stormy Petrels, a truly excellent moniker.

While it is a regular season game for The Citadel, it is actually considered an exhibition matchup for Oglethorpe. Yes, that is a bit confusing, but not particularly unusual.

The Stormy Petrels did not play a D-1 school last season, and last faced a team in that division during the 2015-16 campaign, when they played Georgia State (another example of a regular season game for the D-1 team, but an exhibition for Oglethorpe). Georgia State won that contest 85-34.

During the 2012-13 season, Oglethorpe (which was 17-10 that year) played Mercer and lost 70-25 in another regular season/exhibition matchup.

Virginia Tech, November 12 at Cassell Coliseum in Blacksburg, VA, 7:00 pm (ACC Digital Network)

The Hokies defeated The Citadel 113-71 last season in Blacksburg, one of the 22 wins Virginia Tech had en route to an NCAA tournament appearance. Buzz Williams should have another good team again this season, despite losing the two top scorers off that squad.

Most outlets believe the Hokies will finish in the top half of the ACC. The Blue Ribbon yearbook gave VT a #25 preseason national ranking.

While Virginia Tech’s adjusted tempo in 2016-17 hovered around the national average, the Hokies were more than happy to run with the Bulldogs in last year’s matchup. Virginia Tech had 89 possessions in the contest, the most it had in any game.

The Hokies open this season on Friday with a home game versus Detroit. As for the contest against The Citadel, Kenpom projects Virginia Tech to win 100-80, with the Bulldogs given a 4% chance of pulling the upset.

North Carolina A&T, November 15 at Corbett Sports Center in Greensboro, NC, 7:00 pm

Simply put, the Aggies were one of the worst teams in Division I last season. North Carolina A&T won just three games all year (only one versus a D-1 opponent) and finished with an RPI of 350, next-to-last in the division.

However, this game won’t necessarily be easy for the Bulldogs. For one thing, the Aggies’ only D-1 win actually came against a very solid North Carolina Central squad that won the MEAC regular-season and tournament titles. Based on that result alone, there is clearly some talent on the roster.

Also, North Carolina A&T had three players sit out last season as transfers. All of them will be eligible to play this season, as will a graduate transfer from Georgia Southern, combo guard Devante Boykins.

On the other hand, last year’s leading scorer for the Aggies transferred to North Carolina State.

Before hosting The Citadel, North Carolina A&T will play at Clemson on November 12. It opens the season with a non-D1 game against Greensboro College.

Kenpom projects The Citadel to prevail by an 88-80 score, with a win probability of 77%.

This could be a fun year for the Bulldogs. I’m ready for some hoops.

Great Eight

With last night’s overtime victory over Appalachian State, The Citadel has now won eight consecutive games.  It’s been a while since the Bulldogs won eight in a row.  82 years, to be precise.

1927 was the year, Calvin Coolidge was the president, and Babe Ruth was on his way to hitting 60 home runs in a season (there was no drug testing back then, so obviously there’s no way to know if his 60 were “legitimate” or not).  The coach of The Citadel was the immortal Benny Blatt, in his first season in charge.  Blatt coached the team for four seasons and finished with an outstanding record of 51-22, but that first year was his best.  The Citadel was 17-2 that season, winning 13 games in a row at one point during the campaign and closing in style by winning the postseason tournament of the Southern Intercollegiate Athletic Association (still the only postseason tournament ever won by The Citadel).  The star player for the Bulldogs was Johnny Douglas, who would eventually succeed Blatt as head coach.

You may be wondering about the teams the Bulldogs played (and beat) that year.  Well, the victims in the 13-game winning streak were (in order) as follows:  Newberry, College of Charleston, Presbyterian, Oglethorpe, Mercer, Mercer again, Mercer yet again, Davidson, Davidson again, Wofford, Newberry, Presbyterian, and Wofford.

I guess it’s safe to say they scheduled games a little differently back then.  One thing that is interesting is that in the three-game set with Mercer, the Bulldogs started off dominant, winning the first game with the Bears 50-14, and then as each game was played the teams got closer in terms of competitiveness — in other words, either Mercer started getting better or The Citadel got worse.  The Citadel won the second game by only 14 points, 46-32, and the third game was a five-point contest (38-33).  The two teams would meet for a fourth time that season in the SIAA final, a game the Bulldogs won 42-41.

The SIAA tourney was held in Atlanta that season, which brings up another point about the scheduling in 1927.  The Citadel played 19 games, but did not play a single game outside of Georgia or the Carolinas.  To me, it’s a little strange that the Bulldogs only played the College of Charleston once that season (The Citadel also played the Parris Island Marines).  Blatt presumably would have been interested in picking up another win without having to travel, but I guess he really did like to play those games against Mercer.

Back to the 21st century…Appalachian State shot 51% from the field on Thursday night, including 9-18 from three, and made 6 of its 7 free throw attempts.  It’s not easy to lose a game when you shoot that well, especially when you jump out to a 15-2 lead, but the Mountaineers also committed 17 turnovers (to just 10 for The Citadel) and committed seven more personal fouls than did the Bulldogs.  This led to The Citadel getting 24 free throw attempts, although the Bulldogs almost blew the game by missing nine of them, including five in a row late in regulation when they could have put the game away.

Other than the free throws, The Citadel also shot the ball fairly well (Zach Urbanus and Austin Dahn combined to go 7-14 from three-land), despite getting very little inside from Demetrius Nelson.  That can’t happen against the College of Charleston on Saturday, as Cameron Wells isn’t likely to go for 30 points again.  I’m also worried about late-game situations involving John Brown now, as he has joined Bryan Streeter in the “really really struggling shooting FTs”  club.

Nelson had been coming off SoCon player-of-the-week honors for his 51 points and 18 boards in the two road victories over Western Carolina and Appy, so he was due to have a tough night.  Here’s hoping he can have a game on Saturday more like those games, or the one he had in McAlister earlier this year against the CofC (17 points, 6 rebounds).

As for the Cougars, they’re on a serious high after beating Davidson and disposing of WCU last Wednesday.

(Yes, I had to go for the cheap joke.  Why not?)

The Citadel will again be a decided underdog when it takes on the College, despite that earlier win.  It’s understandable.  One thing I hope happens in this game is that the Bulldogs slow the pace down a little.  The last few games have seen a gradual uptick in possessions per game, which is fine (after all, they’re winning), but against the CofC I think deliberate play works best, as the Cougars can be frustrated (see:  Elon) by slow play.  It’s also very important to avoid turnovers that lead to transition baskets, something The Citadel did very well in the first game between the two teams.

It’s a shame this game isn’t going to be televised.  It is supposed to be a sellout, though, which would make it one of the few times I can remember in which The Citadel was involved in a conference game that sold out.

Final note:  if The Citadel were to win on Saturday, it would be the 12th conference victory of the season, which would set a school record.  Of course, it’s easier to set a record like that in a 20-game league schedule, but it would still be extremely impressive (and 12-4 would be nothing to sneeze at).  I’ve mentioned this before, but twelve conference wins this season would equal the total number of league victories The Citadel had between 1946-1956, an eleven-year stretch during which the school lost 102 games in conference play.