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Schedule analysis: Which teams will The Citadel’s opponents face before playing the Bulldogs? What about afterwards? Sandwich games? Look-aheads?

Posted on August 8, 2025 by Sandlapper Spike

Sometimes, the schedule works in your favor, and sometimes it doesn’t. For this post, I’m going to review the games teams play the week before facing The Citadel…and what they have lined up the following week…and well, a few other games along the way.

Are there “look ahead” games? What about “sandwich” games? Does anyone have a bye week before playing the Bulldogs?

Let’s check it out.

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August 30 — North Dakota State at The Citadel, noon ET

It is the season opener for both teams, so there are obviously no games the week before for either squad. In last year’s finale, The Citadel rolled up 288 yards rushing against ACC champ Clemson, while North Dakota State won its final contest of the season by three points.

The week after facing The Citadel, NDSU is on the road again, heading to Nashville to take on Tennessee State. The Tigers made the playoffs last year, but have since lost head coach Eddie George (who took the Bowling Green job in the spring) and a sizable chunk of the postseason roster. At least one statistics maven has asserted that TSU ranks last in returning production among all FCS teams.

NDSU debuts at home on September 13 against Southeast Missouri State, then has a bye before beginning MVFC play on September 27 with a Homecoming matchup versus South Dakota (which defeated the Bison last year).

September 6 — The Citadel at Samford, 3:30 pm ET

Samford hosts West Georgia on Thursday, August 28, so SU will get two extra days of preparation before facing The Citadel in the league opener for both teams (and has the added benefit of staying at home). Don’t expect Samford to look past West Georgia, however, as the Wolves upset the Birmingham Bulldogs last season. That was actually WGU’s first game as an FCS team.

After playing The Citadel, Samford will travel to Waco for a matchup against Baylor and its highly regarded quarterback, Sawyer Robertson. That will be a very difficult road opener, and is the first of two straight games away from home for SU, which faces Western Carolina in Cullowhee on September 20.

Samford’s final road game of the year, by the way, is also against a Power 4 opponent from the state of Texas, as SU plays at Texas A&M on November 22.

September 13 — The Citadel at Gardner-Webb, 7:00 pm ET

Gardner-Webb has one of the tougher stretches to begin the year in all of FCS.

G-W opens at Western Carolina, which is ranked 18th in the Stats Perform Top 25 Preseason Poll. The Runnin’ Bulldogs then travel to Atlanta to face Georgia Tech, which was picked 4th in the ACC preseason poll.

That is the game Gardner-Webb will play before its matchup with The Citadel, and will be a stern test, though it is worth noting that the Yellow Jackets have a recent history of struggling against FCS opponents nicknamed Bulldogs.

The week after hosting The Citadel, Gardner-Webb has a second FBS game, making the trip up north to tangle with defending MAC champion Ohio.

After a bye week, G-W finally begins conference play on October 4 with a home game versus Charleston Southern. I’m mentioning this mostly because that game has recently been dubbed the “BBQ Bowl“:

The Runnin’ Bulldogs and the Buccaneers will compete annually for bragging rights and the North-South BBQ Trophy, which features a hefty hog adorned with a placard to engrave each year’s winning team and score.

Most importantly, the losing team will be tasked with supplying a barbecue feast to the winning side — North Carolina-style (Western BBQ, of course) or South Carolina-style, as chosen by the victors.

Presumably, the winning team will choose South Carolina-style BBQ, regardless of which squad wins the game.

September 20 — Mercer at The Citadel, 2:00 pm ET (Parents’ Weekend)

Mercer, the preseason SoCon favorite, has a fairly weird start to the season. The Bears will face UC Davis of the Big Sky in Week 0 (on August 23), playing in the FCS Kickoff game at the Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama. Both teams are ranked in the Stats Perform preseason poll (UC Davis is 8th, Mercer 11th). That game will be televised on ESPN at 7:00 pm ET, which won’t be bad at all in terms of exposure.

The following week, Mercer hosts Presbyterian. The Bears then have a bye week before beginning league play with a home game versus Wofford. The following week, Mercer travels to Charleston to face the Bulldogs.

After the game against The Citadel, Mercer stays on the road to play East Tennessee State before returning to Macon to meet Samford. Then, on October 11, Mercer plays Princeton in New Jersey, trying to become the second SoCon team to win at Powers Field. MU has a second bye after that game (getting an extra bye as a result of playing on Week 0).

September 27 — The Citadel at Chattanooga, 6:00 pm ET

Chattanooga has a tough schedule, kind of low-key in a way, but demanding nonetheless. The Mocs open the season at Memphis, and then play another road game at Tennessee Tech. The Golden Eagles won 7 games last year, including their last five, and are ranked #21 in the Stats Perform preseason poll.

After its home opener against Stetson, which should be a bit of a breather (but you never know), Chattanooga has another road game against a team ranked in the preseason poll, Tarleton State (#10). If you are unfamiliar with Tarleton State, don’t be too upset, as the Texans have only been in FCS since 2020. Despite just arriving in Division I, however, TSU’s power brokers already have designs on a spot in FBS.

Chattanooga hosts The Citadel the week following its game at Tarleton State. The Mocs then play at VMI, facing military schools in consecutive weeks, before a bye week that will probably be much-needed.

October 4 — Bye Week for The Citadel

The Citadel is the only SoCon team not playing on October 4.

Without the Bulldogs in the mix, what are your viewing options? It is hard to imagine watching football if The Citadel isn’t involved, so I would recommend making vacation plans of some kind, perhaps an overseas trip.

If you really insist on watching some pigskin, though, here is a list of some of the FBS games which will be played on October 4:

Miami (FL) at Florida State
Clemson at North Carolina
Vanderbilt at Alabama
Texas at Florida
Wisconsin at Michigan
Minnesota at Ohio State
Kansas State at Baylor
Texas Tech at Houston
Air Force at Navy
Boise State at Notre Dame

Among the teams also on a bye for the week: South Carolina, Auburn, LSU, Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi, Tennessee, Georgia Tech, Oregon, Southern California, Iowa, Arizona State, and Utah.

So yes, October 4 is a fairly popular bye week.

October 11 — Valdosta State at The Citadel, 2:00 pm ET (Hall of Fame Weekend/Military Appreciation Day)

I’m still not sure why The Citadel decided to schedule a non-conference game against last year’s Division II national runner-up; it just seems to me that if another home game was desired (laudable) and only non-D1 options were on the table (okay, whatever), settling on a mid-season game against a program as historically successful as the Blazers wasn’t really the way to go.

That was under the previous athletics administration, to be sure.

At any rate, Valdosta State (which has a new coach and a revamped roster) will face The Citadel after playing two straight home games. Following a bye week, VSU hosts UNC Pembroke on September 27, and then Lenoir-Rhyne the week before playing the Bulldogs. The Blazers shouldn’t be looking past either of those squads, particularly Lenoir-Rhyne, which won 10 games last season and made it to the second round of the D-2 playoffs.

That said, neither of those games is a conference matchup, as VSU hardly has any conference matchups. Due to a mass exodus of schools after last season, the Gulf South Conference only has four football-playing members for the 2025 campaign. As a result, Valdosta State won’t play a league contest until November 1 against West Alabama — its first of just three conference games.

Following its game against The Citadel, VSU will have another bye week before hosting North Greenville for Homecoming, its seventh (and final) non-conference matchup of the season.

October 18 — Western Carolina at The Citadel, 2:00 pm ET

I mentioned earlier that Western Carolina opens its season by hosting Gardner-Webb. The next week, WCU plays at Wake Forest in one of the more interesting FCS-over-FBS possibilities on the September slate.

The Catamounts also have non-conference games in September against Elon (at home) and Campbell (on the road).

Prior to its matchup at The Citadel, Western Carolina hosts Furman. In fact, WCU will play all three South Carolina-based SoCon schools in consecutive weeks, as the Catamounts are at Wofford the week before facing the Paladins.

Following the game versus the Bulldogs, WCU has a bye week, and then finishes the regular-season campaign with contests against Chattanooga, Mercer, East Tennessee State, and VMI (the first and last of those being road games).

October 25 — The Citadel at Furman, 2:00 pm ET

This matchup will be Furman’s Homecoming game, though FU will still have two home contests remaining after the contest. The Paladins are at Wofford the week before facing The Citadel, and host Mercer the week afterwards.

Furman then travels to Chattanooga before playing its final game at Paladin Stadium, this time against VMI. The Paladins finish the regular season at Clemson.

Furman’s bye week this year is rather early (September 20), so it will play nine straight weeks to close the campaign — eight consecutive league contests before the finale in Death Valley.

The Paladins have three non-conference games besides the Clemson matchup, and they are also Furman’s first three contests of the season. FU has home games versus William & Mary and Presbyterian and a road trip to play Campbell.

November 1 — VMI at The Citadel, 2:00 pm ET (Military Classic of the South)

The Keydets open the season with all four of their non-conference games, three of which are on the road (Navy, Bucknell, and Richmond). VMI’s one non-league home contest is a matchup with Ferrum (a D2 school). It then enjoys a bye week on September 27 before beginning SoCon action.

VMI’s game against The Citadel is the second of two straight road contests for the Keydets. The week before playing the Bulldogs, VMI travels to Mercer.

The following week is Military Appreciation Day in Lexington, Virginia, and the Keydets are hosting Wofford. They will then play at Furman, another instance of a team playing three consecutive matchups against the SoCon’s Palmetto State trio.

VMI will then conclude regular-season play with a home game versus Western Carolina.

November 8 — The Citadel at Mississippi, 1:00 pm ET

As mentioned above, Mississippi has a bye week on October 4, just like The Citadel.

Mississippi’s other three non-conference games are against Georgia State (the season opener), Tulane, and Washington State. All of those are also in Oxford. Mississippi thus has eight home games this season, including three of its last four regular-season contests.

Oh, but that closing stretch. The Citadel is a “sandwich” game for the Rebels, with Mississippi hosting South Carolina the week before and Florida the week afterwards. Following the game against the Gators, the Rebels have another bye week before facing Mississippi State in Starkville in the Egg Bowl.

Prior to that home game versus the Gamecocks, Mississippi has two road games — at Georgia and at Oklahoma.

November 15 — Wofford at The Citadel, 2:00 pm ET (Homecoming)

Wofford opens the season in Orangeburg against South Carolina State, and then hosts Richmond. After beginning SoCon play the following week at Mercer, the Terriers make the journey to Blacksburg to face Virginia Tech (the Mike Young Invitational).

All of Wofford’s games after its September 27 bye week are league affairs except one, an October 11 matchup against Michael Vick’s Norfolk State squad (kind of a Virginia Tech theme here). That game is Homecoming for the Terriers.

Before facing The Citadel, Wofford travels to VMI, so the Terriers get the military schools back-to-back. After playing the Bulldogs, Wofford finishes the regular season with a home game versus Chattanooga.

November 22 — The Citadel at East Tennessee State, 1:00 pm ET

The Buccaneers start the season with four non-conference games, hosting Murray State in the opener before making the trek to Knoxville to do battle with Tennessee. ETSU then plays at West Georgia before a home game versus Elon.

East Tennessee State has a late bye week, not taking a break until November 1; the week before, it has a Homecoming game versus Wofford.

ETSU then finishes the regular season with two road games against Samford and Western Carolina before hosting The Citadel.

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There you have it. None of The Citadel’s opponents has a bye week before playing The Citadel, though Samford does have those aforementioned two extra days of prep because its opener is on a Thursday.

On the other side of the equation, the Bulldogs’ one “rest” advantage is against a non-conference opponent, so none of its SoCon competitors are affected.

Two of The Citadel’s opponents have a bye week after playing the Bulldogs — Valdosta State and Western Carolina.

The Citadel has two home games against teams that play a road game before facing the Bulldogs at Johnson Hagood Stadium — VMI and Wofford.

The Bulldogs face two squads that play at home before also hosting The Citadel — Samford and Mississippi.

Basically, there are no real scheduling breaks in either direction. It is just a very tough slate.

Filed under: Football, The Citadel | Tagged: Chattanooga, East Tennessee State, Furman, Gardner-Webb, Mercer, Mississippi, North Dakota State, Samford, SoCon, Valdosta State, VMI, Western Carolina, Wofford | Leave a comment »

Football attendance review: Johnson Hagood Stadium, the SoCon, and FCS in general

Posted on July 15, 2025 by Sandlapper Spike

This post is primarily about home attendance at The Citadel, which is a subject I’ve written about many , many times over the years. My first post on the subject was in 2009. What can I say, I’m old.

I used to write about attendance every single year, but then 2020 happened and, well…

The first part of this post is a bit of a cut-and-paste job from previous writeups on this topic, along with new and updated information. I’ve updated the original spreadsheet, and also included some new spreadsheets for the SoCon, along with a brief review of FCS as a whole.

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Here is a spreadsheet that includes attendance information for The Citadel at Johnson Hagood Stadium:

Annual attendance at Johnson Hagood Stadium, 1964-2024

The spreadsheet tracks attendance for The Citadel’s home football games and has now been updated to include games through the 2024 season. It lists year-by-year totals and average game attendance, and the win/loss record for the Bulldogs in each season. There is also a category ranking the years by average attendance.

I have also included home win/loss records for each season.

The 2020 season includes the four games played in the fall of 2020 (one of which was at home) and the eight contests played in the spring of 2021 (four of which took place at JHS). The games referenced on the spreadsheet for the 2021 campaign are only those that were played in the fall (technically some of them took place in late summer, but you know what I mean).

Other columns refer to the program’s winning percentage over a two-year, three-year, five-year, and ten-year period, with the “current” season being the final year in each category. For example, the three-year winning percentage for 1970 (54.84%) is made up of the 1968, 1969, and 1970 seasons.

I include those categories mainly to see what impact, if any, constant winning (or losing) has had on long-term attendance trends.

I have also compared average attendance for the first two games of a season to the last two contests of the same campaign, going back to the 2009 season. There are inherent sample-size issues when making such a comparison (weather, stadium construction [or deconstruction], opponent fan base, etc.), but it doesn’t hurt to see how things have shaken out. The fall 2020/spring 2021 sort-of-season is not included below, for obvious reasons.

2009 [4-7 overall record]; First two home games, average attendance of 13,636; final two home games, average attendance of 11,736 (including Homecoming)
2010 [3-8 overall record]; First two home games, average attendance of 10,904; final two home games, average attendance of 11,805 (including Homecoming)
2011 [4-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 12,756; final two home games, average attendance of 12,387 (including Homecoming)
2012 [7-4 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 13,281; final two home games, average attendance of 13,715 (including Homecoming)
2013 [5-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 13,370; final two home games, average attendance of 12,948 (including Homecoming)
2014 [5-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 9,700; final two home games, average attendance of 9,563 (including Homecoming)
2015 [9-4 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 8,356; final two home games, average attendance of 12,465 (including Homecoming)
2016 [10-2 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 13,299; final two regular-season home games, average attendance of 13,996 (including Homecoming); playoff game attendance of 10,336
2017 [5-6 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 8,718; final two home games, average attendance of 9,496 (including Homecoming)
2018 [5-6 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 9,559; final two home games, average attendance of 9,511 (including Homecoming and a rescheduled game)
2019 [6-6 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 8,517; final two home games, average attendance of 9,141 (including Homecoming)
2021 [4-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 9,503; final two home games, average attendance of 10,189 (including Homecoming)
2022 [4-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 10,339 (including Parents’ Day); final two home games, average attendance of 10,022 (including Homecoming and a game against a non-NCAA/NAIA opponent)
2023 [0-11 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 10,882 (including Parents’ Day); final two home games, average attendance of 11,016 (including Homecoming)
2024: [5-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 9,723; final two home games, average attendance of 10,745 (including Homecoming)

Since 1964, the Bulldogs’ record at Johnson Hagood Stadium is 200-139 (59.0%). The average home attendance over that time period is 13,492. However, there has not been a season in which home attendance averaged more than 13,492 since 2012.

The current stadium capacity is less than 12,000, due to the demolition of the East stands in the spring of 2017. Thus, The Citadel will not see an increase in attendance to the levels of the early part of this century anytime in the near future (and if Charleston’s Board of Architectural Review, heavily influenced by NIMBY-ism, continues to hold up the process, the school might not get to replace the East stands until the sun turns red).

The higher attendance figures for the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s are even further out of sight.

Last year’s average home attendance of 10,225 ranked 52nd out of the 61 seasons included in this survey. The five lowest season averages in attendance have all occurred since 2014.

As always, I need to point out that the cutoff for accuracy in attendance numbers means years like 1959 (eight wins), 1960 (Tangerine Bowl victory), and 1961 (SoCon title) cannot be included for comparison in this review, not to mention any of the other years from 1948, when the most recent iteration of Johnson Hagood Stadium opened, through the 1963 season. I do not have a high degree of confidence in any “public” season attendance figures prior to 1964. ( A few skeptics might suggest I shouldn’t have a large amount of confidence in some of the numbers post-1964, either.)

It is generally accepted that the largest home attendance for The Citadel at any pre-1964 contest was for the Homecoming game against Clemson in 1948, when an estimated 16,000 fans were present for the dedication of the “new” Johnson Hagood Stadium. It is likely that more than twenty years passed before the stadium had a game attendance higher than that (when 19,276 fans attended the home opener in 1969, a 14-10 victory for Red Parker’s Bulldogs over Arkansas State).

Here are the top average attendance marks over two-year, three-year, five-year, and ten-year periods:

Two years: 1975-76 (18,250). Rest of the top five: 1991-92, 1979-80, 1990-91, 1989-90
Three years: 1990-92 (17,457). Rest of the top five: 1989-91, 1978-80, 1991-93, 1975-77
Five years: 1988-92 (17,126). Rest of the top five: 1989-93, 1975-79, 1976-80, 1990-94
Ten years: 1975-84 (16,250). Rest of the top five: 1983-92, 1974-83, 1976-85, 1984-93

Average attendance by decade:

1964-69: 11,998
1970-79: 15,053
1980-89: 15,398
1990-99: 14,955
2000-09: 13,850
2010-19: 11,179
2020-24: 8,910

The 2020-24 period includes the 2020-21 home games. If those are discounted (as they probably should be for this exercise), the average attendance so far this decade is 10,254.

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I’ll throw in this spreadsheet as well, which charts Homecoming games at The Citadel since the first such contest in 1924. It includes attendance for all but three of those games (and every game since 1960), so it is somewhat applicable for this post.

Since 1960, The Citadel has had at least 10,000 fans in attendance for Homecoming for every game except one (8,500 for a matchup against Furman in 1965). The record for Homecoming attendance is 21,811, set in 1992 when the Bulldogs played VMI.

Homecoming at The Citadel, 1924-2024

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Now let’s take a look at the SoCon.

Here is a spreadsheet that lists the attendance numbers for all SoCon games (conference matchups only) in 2024:

2024 SoCon attendance (league games only)

(The formatting might not be ideal, but it gets the job done; at least, I hope it does.)

Last season, Chattanooga was the top overall road draw in league play. In four road games, the Mocs played before crowds averaging 10,293. Those numbers were buoyed by the location of those four contests, with the host schools being The Citadel, Furman, ETSU, and Western Carolina. Those four ranked 1-2-4-5 in home attendance for conference games.

Conversely, Mercer ranked last as a road draw, with an average of 4,171.5 fans, thanks almost entirely to playing away from home against Chattanooga, VMI, Samford, and Wofford, the four schools that made up the bottom half of the league in conference home attendance (with the Terriers bringing up the rear with an average of 3,589 fans per league matchup).

In 2022, Chattanooga played the same four teams on the road, and was the league’s road draw leader. That same year, Mercer was last as a road draw, playing the same four opponents as it did last season. In other words, the numbers probably say more about the teams they played than the Mocs and Bears.

There are a couple of things to note for 2024. Two games are not part of the home league attendance totals, due to the impact of Hurricane Helene. Furman’s home game against Samford was postponed and ultimately canceled, while Western Carolina’s home matchup versus Wofford was played before no fans (due to ongoing rescue and recovery efforts in that region).

The highest-attended league game in 2024 was Western Carolina’s home finale against VMI, with 13,022 spectators.

The lowest-attended league game (not counting the Wofford-WCU matchup referenced earlier) was, by far, Wofford’s home game versus Mercer on September 28, with an announced attendance of 1,219. Both teams were ranked at the time, and the box score listed the weather as “sunny”.

[Edit: a comment for this post alerted me to the fact that Mercer-Wofford was yet another game affected by Hurricane Helene. The surrounding area was mostly without power, traffic lights were down, and there were long lines for gasoline as well. We’ll give the Wofford community a mulligan for that one.]

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The attendance for some of these games, particular those at Wofford, inspired me to compile another chart, this one listing attendance for The Citadel’s road matchups against current SoCon schools. I decided to start with the 1997 season, which was Wofford’s first as a league member (and was also the first year Chattanooga played in Finley Stadium).

Road attendance in The Citadel’s games against current SoCon schools, 1997-2024

The above spreadsheet doesn’t feature all of the Bulldogs’ league road games over that time period, of course, as it doesn’t include former SoCon members Appalachian State, Elon, Georgia Southern, and Marshall. It also lists games at VMI when that school was not in the conference.

Some of these totals have been fairly consistent over time (the games at VMI, for example), but there has been variance over the years, and there has also been a decline in attendance in some places. The last two games the Bulldogs have played against Wofford have been noteworthy in that regard.

I’m not sure what to make of that, particularly when The Citadel has been the best “traveling” fan base in the SoCon over the last decade and a half (a subject I wrote about a few years ago). How much of that has to do with The Citadel? What about the home support?

Perhaps it just comes down to philosophical changes in how to count attendance by certain school administrations. The long-term effect of COVID-19 probably needs to be considered, as well, at least when it comes to how people now allocate leisure time. I have to wonder if there is a difference between FBS and FCS in that respect — but to be honest, I don’t really have any idea.

In 2016, the SoCon average attendance (all home games, league and out-of-conference) was 8,386. Last season, it was 8,169. That isn’t a big difference, so alarm bells shouldn’t be going off around the league. It is something worth monitoring, though.

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Finally, a brief look at FCS attendance. I wrote a lot on this subject two years ago. I’m not going over all that ground again, but I would like to make a few observations about the 2024 campaign from an attendance perspective.

Here is a spreadsheet that includes FCS home attendance for 2024:

FCS home attendance 2024

There are various columns on that spreadsheet besides the breakdown of 2024 attendance. I also included a column for 2023 average attendance, the average attendance for the 2012-2022 period (excluding fall 2020/spring 2021, and only listing the schools that were continuously in the subdivision during that time frame), and columns comparing the differential between attendance for 2012-2022 and the last two seasons.

Jackson State and Montana were 1-2 in attendance in 2024. Those two schools have occupied the top two places for most of the last decade.

The list includes two schools no longer in FCS as of 2025 (Delaware and Missouri State) and several schools that are recent entrants in the subdivision.

There were 25 FCS schools that averaged over 10,000 in home attendance last season. Of those, according to the participation release from the College Sports Commission, all opted in to the House settlement except for Holy Cross, Harvard, The Citadel, Idaho, and UC Davis.

On the other hand, 15 FCS schools averaged fewer than 2,500 fans per home game, with subdivision debutant Mercyhurst bringing up the rear (1,183 per game in four home contests).

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Okay, I think that is enough about attendance for now. Soon, there will be 2025 attendance figures to discuss…

Filed under: Football, The Citadel | Tagged: Attendance, Chattanooga, East Tennessee State, FCS, Furman, Harvard, Holy Cross, Idaho, Jackson State, Mercer, Montana, Samford, SoCon, The Citadel, UC Davis, VMI, Western Carolina, Wofford | 2 Comments »

The Citadel Football: Parents’ Weekend 2023

Posted on September 28, 2023 by Sandlapper Spike

Western Carolina at The Citadel, to be played at historic Johnson Hagood Stadium in Charleston, South Carolina, with kickoff at 2:00 pm ET on September 30, 2023.

The game will be streamed on ESPN+. Dave Weinstein will handle play-by-play, while Jason Kempf supplies the analysis. The sideline reporter is Taylor Wall.

The contest can be heard on radio via The Citadel Sports Network. WQNT-1450 AM [audio link], originating in Charleston, will be the flagship station. Other stations carrying the game include WQXL in Columbia (100.7 FM/1470 AM) and WDXY in Sumter (105.9 FM/1240 AM).

Brian Giffin will call the action alongside analyst Lee Glaze.

“Live Stats” for the game

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Before starting with the nuts and bolts of this preview, I need to briefly note the obvious, which is that the last couple of days have been very difficult ones for many people associated with The Citadel, and the football program in particular.

The sudden passing of Stanley Myers on Wednesday has cast a pall over this weekend’s events on campus. I have little to add to what has already been said, and will continue to be said, about Myers’ exemplary life. I’ll just include a few quotes about him here.

Deon Jackson:

[Stanley Myers] is everything you think about when you think about a Citadel graduate. He represents the best of all of us. We lost one of our great leaders.

Jack Douglas:

The best way I can define Stan is a quintessential Citadel man. He fought for our country, became one of the top defense lawyers in the country and a judge advocate general. He just ticked off accomplishment after accomplishment after accomplishment. And he exuded Citadel excellence.

Jason Barley:

It’s a sad day for Citadel football. QB1 was the best. He represented the best of what cadet student-athletes at The Citadel are all about. He was the epitome of a Citadel alum on and off the field and in life. Everyone looked up to Stanley.

Stanley Myers was 47 years old. Condolences to his family.

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Links of interest:

– SoCon weekly release

– Western Carolina game notes and depth chart

– The Citadel game notes [when available]

– Maurice Drayton’s Monday press conference

– Season statistics for The Citadel (four games)

– Box score for The Citadel-South Carolina State

– Catamount Football Weekly with Kerwin Bell

– Box score for Western Carolina-Arkansas (WCU lost, 56-13)

– Box score for Samford-Western Carolina (the Catamounts won, 30-7)

– Box score for Western Carolina-Eastern Kentucky (a road win for WCU, 27-24)

– Box score for Charleston Southern-Western Carolina (WCU won, 77-21)

– Season statistics for Western Carolina (four games)

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Roster review:

– Of the 110 players on The Citadel’s online roster, 58 are from South Carolina. Other states represented: Florida (14 players), Georgia (11), North Carolina (11), Virginia (5), Alabama (2), Ohio (2), New York (2), Texas (2), and one each from Maryland, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

– Western Carolina has 123 players on its online roster. Of those, 44 are from North Carolina and 43 are from Florida. Other states represented: Georgia (13 players), South Carolina (13), Alabama (3), Tennessee (3), Texas (2), and one each from Nebraska and Virginia.

– WCU has 30 redshirt freshmen and 29 “true” freshmen. Of those two groups, 27 are from Florida, including 17 from the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale area.

– There are 13 Palmetto State products on the Catamounts’ roster, representing 11 different South Carolina high schools: Lakewood (2 players), Northwestern (2 players), A.C. Flora, Byrnes, Clover, Fairfield Central, Fox Creek, Hartsville, Hillcrest, Seneca, and Thomas Heyward Academy.

As sharp-eyed readers will immediately notice, there are no graduates of Orangeburg-Wilkinson High School on WCU’s squad. The failure to recruit any stalwarts of the famed maroon and orange is a sad blot on Kerwin Bell’s record. Ronnie Carr, who made history in Cullowhee, cannot be pleased.

– Seven of the Catamounts are junior college transfers, while 24 members of the roster originally began their respective college careers at other four-year institutions. Among those FBS schools from which players have matriculated to WCU: Akron, Alabama, Coastal Carolina, Massachusetts, North Carolina, South Florida, Toledo, UAB, and Virginia Tech.

According to Western Carolina’s game notes, 12 of those transfers are new to the program this season.

Redshirt junior defensive lineman C.J. Fann, Jr. started his intercollegiate career at Florida State before transferring to Akron. He is now in his first season at Western Carolina.

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Odds and ends:

– The weather forecast for Saturday in Charleston, per the National Weather Service, includes a 20% chance of showers after kickoff. The projected high is 81°, with a low that night of 65°.

– As I’ve previous mentioned, it is highly unlikely that a line for this game will be posted anywhere before Saturday morning.

– Massey Ratings: Western Carolina is ranked 26th in FCS, up one spot from last week. The Citadel is 109th (a 13-place drop).

Massey projects Western Carolina to win the game by a predicted score of 35-19. The Citadel is given a 17% chance of winning.

—

Meanwhile, SP+ ranks Western Carolina 41st (32nd on offense, 57th on defense) and The Citadel 119th (125th on offense, 88th on D).

A selected list of SP+ FCS rankings entering Week 5:

South Dakota State (1st)
North Dakota State (2nd)
Montana State (3rd)
William and Mary (6th)
Furman (8th)
Chattanooga (16th)
Jackson State (28th)
Campbell (33rd)
Austin Peay (37th)
Mercer (42nd)
Samford (46th)
Kennesaw State (51st)
Eastern Kentucky (52nd)
Davidson (53rd)
East Tennessee State (81st)
Wofford (87th)
VMI (92nd)
Charleston Southern (95th)
Bucknell (107th)
Morehead State (123rd)
Presbyterian (126th)
Drake (128th and last)

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In other FCS ratings systems, The Citadel ranks 122nd in the Congrove Computer Rankings (a drop of 5 spots), 125th in the Laz Index (a decline of 4 places), and 120th in the DCI (down 9 spots).

—

– Games involving SoCon teams this week [projected score per SP+ in brackets]:

Saturday at 1:00 pm ET: East Tennessee State at Samford [Samford 35.0, ETSU 20.9]
Saturday at 2:00 pm ET: Western Carolina at The Citadel [WCU 36.1, The Citadel 14.4]
Saturday at 4:00 pm ET: VMI at Mercer [Mercer 31.7, VMI 12.6]
Saturday at 6:00 pm ET: Chattanooga at Wofford [UTC 34.2, Wofford 13.2]

Furman is off this week.

– Among Western Carolina’s notable alumni: actor Sean Bridgers, composer Sarah Hutchings, and former major league infielder Wayne Tolleson.

– The Citadel has an all-time record of 6-6 for games played on September 30. The Bulldogs are 4-0 at home on that date, and 2-2 in league play.

—

Maurice Drayton, asked about how The Citadel can improve on third down:

You have to win first down. You have to win second down, so that your third downs are manageable…in order to stay on the field (after) third down, we have to win on first and second down.

I decided to take a quick statistical look at The Citadel’s results on both first down and third down this season.

On first down, the Bulldogs are averaging 4.74 yards per play. While an individual first-down gain of 4 or 5 yards is generally excellent, an average in that range is definitely not. For comparison, the 2016 team averaged 6.21 yards per play on first down.

The average would be considerably worse without the Bulldogs’ 75-yard touchdown pass against Campbell; without that, the mean would be 3.83 yards per play.

Now, that play does count — big plays are part of succeeding on first down, after all — but the bottom line is that far too often, the Bulldogs are not gaining enough yardage on first down to make eventual third down plays more manageable. In fact, exactly one-third of The Citadel’s first-down plays have resulted in a gain of less than two yards.

On third downs, the average distance the Bulldogs have needed to pick up a first down is 7.53 yards (the 2016 squad’s comparable number was 5.68, an enormous difference). For 31.9% of its third down plays this season, The Citadel has needed to gain at least 10 yards, which is obviously not conducive to sustaining long drives.

Perhaps even more frustrating is that the Bulldogs have not been adept at picking up first downs even in their limited short-yardage opportunities; on 3rd-and-1 and 3rd-and-2, The Citadel has only successfully converted on four of nine attempts.

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Since 1953, The Citadel has a record of 37-32 on Parents’ Day. The college actually started hosting a celebration weekend for parents in 1934, but records are a bit scanty for the games played prior to 1953 (and they aren’t absolutely perfect post-1953, either).

One of my goals is to compile a complete record for Parents’ Day contests, much as I did for Homecoming games. I hope to do that sometime next year.

The Citadel is 3-0 when Western Carolina is the opponent on Parents’ Day.

Incidentally, the Catamounts have never been the visiting team on Homecoming at The Citadel, despite the two schools meeting on the gridiron 47 times. No other Bulldog opponent has played the military college as often without being a Homecoming guest at least once.

—

There is always hope for the Bulldogs, but this Saturday that commodity might not be as readily available. On the other hand, Western Carolina arrives in Charleston with a great deal of well-deserved confidence.

Its emphatic victory over Samford established WCU as a serious contender in the SoCon. Following that up with a solid road victory over Eastern Kentucky and last week’s demolition of Charleston Southern only enhanced the team’s overall profile, which is why the Catamounts are now ranked in both major FCS polls.

Starting quarterback Cole Gonzales was named the league’s offensive player of the week after throwing five touchdown passes against Charleston Southern. Nine different Catamounts scored touchdowns in that contest.

Also, I wouldn’t expect WCU to be looking past The Citadel, even with a high-stakes game at Chattanooga next week. Kerwin Bell will make sure of that.

During his coach’s show, the WCU boss expressed frustration over losing last year’s meeting between the two schools:

They ruined our Saturday, man, one of the worst games I’ve ever been in as a head coach, to see us get beat by them at home…

…We weren’t ready…we didn’t get them off the field…they had six plays that I remember that were 3rd and long, and that ain’t their cup of tea, we should have been off the field — they got all six. A lot of it was busted assignments, it’s not being well coached. That is our fault. That one still hurts me, probably of all the losses I’ve ever had as a head coach, because you shouldn’t lose to that.

The Citadel didn’t really convert six 3rd-and-long plays in that game, but what Bell is probably remembering is the first half, when the Bulldogs successfully converted third down plays of 7, 8, and 6 yards via the pass, and were 8 for 10 overall on 3rd down conversion attempts in the half (including a 32-yard TD toss to go up 24-0). For the game, The Citadel controlled the ball for 42 minutes and 49 seconds.

That type of statistical dominance for the Bulldogs is not likely this Saturday. Western Carolina is a better football team this season, and The Citadel is still finding its way on both sides of the ball.

The goal remains continued improvement. That will be the goal on every Saturday for the rest of this year. A victory would be a most welcome result of that improvement, no matter which Saturday.

Filed under: Football, The Citadel | Tagged: Kerwin Bell, Maurice Drayton, SoCon, The Citadel, Western Carolina | Leave a comment »

College Football Week 8, 2021: Saturday notes and observations

Posted on October 23, 2021 by Sandlapper Spike

– Tuesday notes and observations (discussion of future non-conference schedules, including a couple of matchups not “officially” released yet)

– Wednesday notes and observations (lots of statistical comparisons between WCU and The Citadel, along with a look at FCS in general from a stats perspective)

– Thursday notes and observations (roster review, broadcast information, etc.)

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– The Post and Courier game preview

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This is mostly just a quick post on gameday to list the lines…

Also, there is this. From The Citadel’s game notes:

On this date… [October 23]

In 1976, The Citadel went on the road and scored the first 26 points on the way to a 26-7 road victory over Air Force. The Bulldogs took advantage of a short field to take the lead on a three-yard touchdown run from Andrew Johnson. Paul Tanguay kicked field goals of 47 and 37 yards around a six-yard touchdown pass from Mary Crosby to Al Major. Ralph Ferguson put the game away in the fourth quarter with a 31-yard interception return for a touchdown.

I actually wrote about this game several years ago. I’ve always felt it was a bit underrated as a notable victory by the Bulldogs. Here is a fairly extensive review of the contest:

The Citadel 26, Air Force 7

By the way, if you’re into old games (and this one came with the AFA coach’s show highlight package, which was terrific), I highly recommend checking out The Citadel Football Association’s list of available DVDs:

Link

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Per one source that deals in such matters, The Citadel is a 10-point favorite over Western Carolina. The over/under is 66½.

That line is about what it “should” be, according to my metrics. As for the over/under, that’s a lot of points — but my numbers indicate the potential for an even higher-scoring contest.

Other SoCon lines (VMI is off this week):

Chattanooga is a 3-point favorite at Samford (over/under of 64)
ETSU is a 1½-point favorite at Furman (over/under of 45)
Mercer is a 7-point favorite over Wofford (over/under of 45½)

Those three lines accurately reflect the schools’ respective power ratings (well, at least my power ratings).

I am experimenting with a totals calculator, beginning this week, and it suggests that ETSU-Furman might be lower-scoring than that over/under number. We shall see. I am not overly confident in my projections.

Other lines/totals in FCS of some interest:

Dayton is a 1½-point favorite at Valparaiso; the Flyers should be more heavily favored
James Madison is a 14-point favorite at Delaware; the power ratings suggest the future Sun Belt program should be an 18-to-20 point favorite
Kennesaw State is a 1-point favorite at Campbell; my numbers really like the Owls in that matchup

That is about it this week. The actual lines dovetailed rather well with the power ratings, all things considered.

Some over/unders that were flagged on my calculator:

LIU-Central Connecticut State (51½); Georgetown-Bucknell (45½); North Carolina Central-Morgan State (37½) — the system suggested the over is definitely in play for those three games
Northern Iowa-South Dakota State (49½); James Madison-Delaware (48½); Missouri State-North Dakota State (48½); Rhode Island-Villanova (50½); Southeastern Louisiana-Northwestern State (73½); Weber State-Eastern Washington (63½); Prairie View A&M-Southern (53½) — all of those contests are under plays

Again, this is a first-week experiment that I expect to go very badly. As always, this exercise is for recreational purposes only; I’m not putting any money on any of these games.

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Okay, it’s time for football…

Filed under: Football, The Citadel | Tagged: FCS, SoCon, The Citadel, Western Carolina | Leave a comment »

College Football Week 8, 2021: Thursday notes and observations

Posted on October 21, 2021 by Sandlapper Spike

– The Citadel’s game notes for the WCU game

– Western Carolina’s game notes for its game versus The Citadel

– SoCon weekly release

– The Brent Thompson Show (10/20/21)

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– Tuesday notes and observations: this post focuses on The Citadel’s future non-conference football schedules, including a rather curious opponent on the 2022 slate

– Wednesday notes and observations: a comparison of The Citadel’s and Western Carolina’s statistics for this season, followed by an in-depth look at FCS stats from a national perspective (including a link to my working spreadsheet for FCS statistics)

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Broadcast information

Western Carolina at The Citadel, to be played on Sansom Field at historic Johnson Hagood Stadium in Charleston, South Carolina, with kickoff at 2:00 pm ET on October 23, 2021.

The game will be streamed on ESPN+. Play-by-play will be handled by Kevin Fitzgerald, while Jason Kempf supplies the analysis.

Luke Mauro (the “Voice of the Bulldogs”) calls the action alongside analyst Lee Glaze.

– “Live Stats” for the game

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An article in The Post and Courier co-authored by Jeff Hartsell describes some of the issues current high school football players are having as they strive to receive college scholarships. It includes quotes from Brent Thompson, who discussed the situation in some detail during his Monday press conference.

Thompson noted that The Citadel has about 20 offers out right now to high school players, a drop of 80% from last season — and that is despite being, as the coach pointed out, “a high school recruiting program”. Other schools more inclined to take undergraduate transfers will likely offer (and ultimately sign) even fewer prep prospects.

The Bulldogs’ head coach was empathetic to the plight of the high schoolers: “It’s tough, I don’t really like where things are right now.”

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Roster review:

– Of the 112 players on The Citadel’s online roster, 61 are from South Carolina. Other states represented: Georgia (18 players), Florida (11), North Carolina (9), Virginia (4), Alabama (2), Texas (2), and one each from New York, Oklahoma, Ohio, and Tennessee.

Tight end Hayden Williamson played his high school football in Okinawa, Japan.

– There are 113 players on Western Carolina’s online roster. Of those, 44 are from North Carolina. Others in the squad hail from the following states: South Carolina (24 players), Georgia (19), Florida (9), Alabama (5), Pennsylvania (3), Tennessee (3), Virginia (2), and one each from Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, and Ohio.

New head coach Kerwin Bell has had to rebuild WCU’s roster on the fly, so the speak, and has brought in quite a few transfers to do so. There are 24 players who arrived in Cullowhee via other four-year schools, and 7 others who transferred into the program from junior colleges. Nineteen of those transfers are on Western Carolina’s two-deep.

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Seven of those transfers began their collegiate careers at either Tusculum or Valdosta State. Offensive coordinator Kade Bell previously served as OC at both of those schools (2016-18 at Valdosta State, and 2020 at Tusculum; he spent the 2019 campaign as an analyst at South Florida).

Kerwin Bell was the head coach at Valdosta State during the three seasons his son was the offensive coordinator at that school; in his third and final season, he led the Blazers to a 14-0 record and the Division II national championship.

Rogan Wells played for the Bells at Valdosta State, and then transferred to Tusculum for the 2021 spring season. Wells had a glittering career at quarterback for Valdosta State, fashioning a 28-3 record as a starter (including the aforementioned national title).

However, he did not play in WCU’s last game, a 34-24 loss at Mercer two weeks ago due to injury. If Wells is not ready by Saturday, Carlos Davis (who started against the Bears) will be the QB against The Citadel. Davis came to WCU from East Mississippi Community College.

Wells’ stat line: 104 for 199 (52.3%), averaging 5.60 yards per attempt, with 6 TD passes and 9 interceptions
Davis’ stat line: 39 for 66 (59.1%), averaging 7.32 yards per attempt, with 3 TD passes and 4 interceptions

Western Carolina’s adjusted yards per pass play (which includes sacks) is 5.39; Catamount QBs have been sacked 16 times. All told, 59.4% of WCU’s offensive plays have been passes. The Catamounts average 44.3 pass attempts per game, sixth-most in FCS.

WCU quarterbacks have thrown thirteen interceptions, tied with Valparaiso for third-most in the country, behind only Presbyterian and Dixie State. Western Carolina is the 10th-fastest offense in the subdivision (22.53 seconds per offensive play).

I mentioned most of the pertinent stats for Western Carolina’s defense in the Wednesday post, but I did want to note that WCU’s defensive Havoc Rate is 13.96%, which is below average but actually ahead of several SoCon squads (including The Citadel’s). As discussed, league defenses have really struggled to produce disruptive and negative plays this season.

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I might have one more post before kickoff on Saturday. I do not yet have the lines for FCS games this weekend; if I get the numbers in time, I’ll probably write something about them.

Filed under: Football, The Citadel | Tagged: SoCon, The Citadel, Western Carolina | Leave a comment »

College Football Week 8, 2021: Wednesday notes and observations

Posted on October 19, 2021 by Sandlapper Spike

– The Citadel’s game notes for the Western Carolina matchup

– Tuesday notes and observations, which mainly consists of a review of The Citadel’s future non-conference football schedules, with additional information included

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The weather forecast for Saturday in Charleston, per the National Weather Service: sunny, with a high near 79°.

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Link to my working spreadsheet for FCS statistics (through October 16)

Okay, some comparisons between The Citadel and Western Carolina. As always, keep in mind there are 128 FCS teams.

Also, a word on definitions: adjusted yards per rush and adjusted yards per pass are averages with sack yardage included in the passing totals, rather than the rushing numbers. I believe these more accurately reflect a team’s ability on the ground and through the air, both offensively and defensively.

I also calculate Red Zone proficiency by estimated points per Red Zone possession, rather than scoring rate. All of that is included in the spreadsheet.

The Citadel’s offense vs. Western Carolina’s defense

The Citadel’s offense is 60th in yards per play (5.45), while Western Carolina’s defense is 120th in yards per play allowed (6.68).
The Bulldogs are 40th in adjusted yards per rush (5.09), while WCU is 117th in adjusted rush yards allowed (5.83).
The Citadel has an adjusted yards per pass on offense of 6.94, which ranks 40th nationally; however, it is worth noting that the Bulldogs have attempted 71 passes, third-fewest in FCS. The Catamounts’ D ranks 113th in adjusted yards allowed per pass (7.74).
On offense, the Bulldogs have run the ball 80.8% of the time, the 3rd-highest rate nationally (behind Davidson and Kennesaw State, and just ahead of North Dakota State and Lamar). Opponents have rushed on 55.1% of plays from scrimmage against Western Carolina’s defense (38th-most among FCS squads).
The Citadel’s offensive third down conversion rate is 44.2%, 22nd in FCS. Defensively, Western Carolina has allowed a third down conversion rate of 45.8% (111th).
The Bulldogs are 8 for 20 on 4th down attempts (40.0%). The Catamounts have only faced three 4th-down attempts by an opponent (allowing a first down on two of those occasions), tied for the fewest faced by a defense in all of FCS.
Conversely, The Citadel’s twenty 4th-down tries is tied for the 7th-most in FCS. That brings me to “go rate”, my statistic for showing how aggressive a team is on 4th down. The Citadel is 6th nationally in go rate, at 42.6%.
In the Red Zone, The Citadel’s offense ranks 62nd in efficiency by my metrics, while WCU’s defense ranks 126th, third-worst in FCS (ahead of only Holy Cross and last-place Georgetown).

Western Carolina’s offense vs. The Citadel’s defense

Western Carolina’s offense is 81st in yards per play (5.16), while The Citadel’s defense is 114th nationally in yards allowed per play (6.60).
The Catamounts are 53rd in adjusted yards per rush (4.84); the Bulldogs’ D is 107th in FCS in that category (5.61).
WCU is 90th in adjusted yards per pass (5.39), with the crew from Cullowhee averaging 44.3 throws per contest (which is the 6th-highest rate in FCS). Meanwhile, The Citadel is 116th in adjusted passing yards allowed per play (116th).
On offense, Western Carolina has run the ball 40.6% of the time, which is the 15th-lowest rate in the subdivision. The Bulldogs’ opponents have rushed on 56.0% of their plays from scrimmage (29th-most in FCS).
Western Carolina’s offensive third down conversion rate is 35.5% (76th nationally). The Citadel’s defensive third-down conversion rate is 45.2%, which ranks 110th — one spot ahead of the Catamounts’ defense.
WCU is 6 for 13 on 4th-down attempts (46.2%), 69th in FCS. The Citadel has allowed four successful 4th-down conversions on 6 tries by its opponents. The Bulldogs are in a tie for 9th-fewest 4th-down attempts faced with several teams (including Furman and Wofford).
The Catamounts are 49th in go rate (23.6%).
In the Red Zone, Western Carolina’s offense ranks 101st overall by my numbers, while the Bulldogs’ D is 59th.

A few other stats of note:

The Citadel remains 6th in net punting (41.79), while Western Carolina is 59th (36.32). Montana continues to lead the nation in this category (44.8).
For the season, the Bulldogs have a turnover margin of exactly zero, having gained and lost the same amount of turnovers (7). Western Carolina has a net of -8, for an average of -1.33 per game (ranking in the bottom 10 nationally).
This week, I compiled the stats for Havoc Rate. The Citadel’s defense has the 5th-lowest Havoc Rate in FCS (10.8%). I discussed this statistic in a post I made in July In the spring, the Bulldogs had a Havoc Rate of 14.38%, which was below average but still better than the current output. The squad must increase its number of disruptive and negative plays (to be fair, last week was a respectable one in that department for The Citadel’s D).

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A statistical tour of FCS, beginning with offensive productivity:

Eastern Washington leads the nation in offensive yards per play (7.78). The rest of the top five includes South Dakota State, Southeastern Louisiana, North Dakota State, and Nicholls State. ETSU is 6th. The national average is 5.39.
The bottom five in offensive yards per play: Lehigh (2.61, last), Bucknell, Grambling State, LIU, and Morgan State.
In adjusted yards per rush, South Dakota State ranks first, at 6.56. Second through fifth: North Dakota State, Southern, Nicholls State, and Abilene Christian. The top 25 includes four SoCon teams: ETSU, Chattanooga, Mercer, and Wofford. The national average is 4.72.
The bottom five in adjusted yards per rush: Georgetown (2.06), LIU, Albany, Robert Morris, and Alabama State.
For adjusted yards per pass, Eastern Washington leads the way at 9.54 per pass play, ahead of South Dakota State, Davidson, Southeastern Louisiana, and Princeton. While Davidson ranks third in this category, it should be noted that the Wildcats have only attempted 53 passes this season, the fewest in all of FCS. They have made them count, though.
The national average is adjusted yards per pass is 6.07. ETSU and Mercer both are in the top 25, while the bottom five includes Lehigh (just 2.18 yards per pass play), Bucknell, Grambling State, Morgan State, and Mississippi Valley State.
I mentioned the most run-oriented teams above. The teams most likely to pass are Presbyterian (70.7% of the time), Western Illinois, Dixie State, Houston Baptist, and Alabama A&M. Samford is in the top 10.
Southeastern Louisiana’s offensive third down conversion rate of 59.5% leads the nation. Others in the top five: Eastern Washington, Davidson, Dartmouth, and Merrimack. ETSU, Samford, and Mercer join The Citadel in the top 25. The national average is 37.2%.
On average, teams convert 4th-down attempts at a 49.5% clip. Alas, poor Lehigh is somehow 0 for 10 on 4th down this season. It has been a very tough season for the Mountain Hawks, which have scored only nine points in six games.
As expected, Presbyterian is far and away the leader in 4th-down attempts, with 45. Stetson is a distant 2nd (29 tries). Monmouth, Central Connecticut State, and Merrimack round out the top 5.
Presbyterian has an astronomical go rate of 93.8%, having only punted twice while attempting no field goals. Other teams that are more than willing to go for it on 4th down (though not as often as the Blue Hose) include Stetson (55.8%, second-highest), Southeastern Louisiana, Merrimack, and Davidson.
The team least likely to go for it on 4th down? That would be Chattanooga (4.2%). Other programs taking a more conservative approach include Missouri State, Eastern Kentucky, Grambling State, and Montana State.
Per my metrics, the most efficient Red Zone team is Georgetown; however, the Hoyas have a win/loss record of just 1-4, in part because in five games they have only reached the Red Zone 12 times. Among teams with at least 30 Red Zone possessions, the top outfit is Southeastern Louisiana, which is in the discussion for having the nation’s best offense. Three SoCon teams (Samford, ETSU, and VMI) also fare well in this category.
Samford has the fastest offense in FCS (18.24 seconds per offensive play). Other teams lining up to snap the football as soon as they can include Presbyterian, Austin Peay, Eastern Washington, and Charleston Southern. Western Carolina is 10th, while The Citadel is 64th. The national average is 27.01 seconds per play.

Now, let’s look at the defenses:

Jackson State leads FCS in yards allowed per play, surrendering just 3.61 on average. JSU’s defense has been one of the two or three best units in the subdivision. Second through fifth in yards allowed per play: Princeton, Harvard, James Madison, and North Dakota State. Three SoCon teams rank 32nd through 34th — respectively, Chattanooga, Mercer, and ETSU.
James Madison is the standard-bearer for adjusted yards allowed per rush (2.84). Defending national champion Sam Houston State is 2nd, followed by Harvard, Villanova, and Princeton.
The worst rush defenses are Youngstown State (6.76), Texas Southern, Alabama A&M, Western Illinois, and Lehigh.
The top defenses against the pass are Jackson State (adjusted yards per pass of 3.55), Prairie View A&M, Princeton, Florida A&M, and North Dakota State. Deion Sanders’ squad also leads FCS in total sacks and sack rate (12.3%).
The bottom five versus the pass: Southern Utah (allowing an adjusted rate of 10.57 yards per play), Central Connecticut State, LIU, Hampton, and Maine.
Opponents have rushed against VMI at a higher rate more than any other team (65.4% of the time). As mentioned last week, the Keydets have faced several run-heavy offenses (including Davidson, Wofford, and The Citadel), which accounts for that.
Harvard’s opponents have a pass play rate of 64.1%, most in the subdivision; one reason for this is that the 5-0 Crimson have only trailed in one game all season, and even then it was for less than ten minutes.
Yale’s defensive third down conversion rate of 21.3% leads the country. Other teams doing a great job of getting off the field on third down include North Dakota State, James Madison, Weber State, and Cornell. Among SoCon squads, Chattanooga leads the line at 14th nationally.
The bottom five in defensive third down conversion rate: LIU (60.0%), Southern Utah, Brown, Illinois State, and Jacksonville State. I will point out here that the Sharks have faced three FBS opponents this season, and that has definitely had a negative impact on their stats.
My numbers suggest that North Dakota State has the best Red Zone defense in FCS. The only caveat is that the Bison have only faced seven Red Zone possessions all season. Of course, that also says something about NDSU’s defense.
I mentioned Havoc Rate above when comparing Western Carolina and The Citadel. The leading team in Havoc Rate in FCS is, not surprisingly, Jackson State (25.0%). The rest of the top five: Stephen F. Austin, Florida A&M, James Madison, and Sam Houston State.
Wofford has the lowest Havoc Rate in the nation (9.40%). The SoCon has a whole is very deficient in this area; only ETSU and Chattanooga are above the national average.

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More to come later in the week…

Filed under: Football, The Citadel | Tagged: FCS, SoCon, The Citadel, Western Carolina | Leave a comment »

Looking at the numbers, 2021 preseason: returning starters in the SoCon

Posted on July 31, 2021 by Sandlapper Spike

Looking at the numbers, 2021 preseason: close games

Posted on July 25, 2021 by Sandlapper Spike

Here are links to other posts I’ve written this month as the 2021 fall campaign approaches:

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I’ve often stated that marginal improvement in various statistical categories can make an outsized difference in a team’s success, and lead to winning more games. For example, in my post about havoc rates, I wrote:

…one play — a forced fumble, a big tackle for loss, an interception — could well be the difference between a win or a loss. After all, just think about how many close games The Citadel has played in the conference in recent years.

This is certainly true, but it occurred to me that I hadn’t actually researched just how many close games the Bulldogs have played over the past few seasons. It was time to change that oversight.

Thus, I created a spreadsheet (of course). This one includes all Southern Conference games played between 2011 and the 2021 spring campaign for every league team which played during the period. That is ten seasons of data.

I am defining close games by the more-or-less standard definition, matchups decided by eight or fewer points — in other words, one-score games. That obviously includes all overtime contests.

Close games in the SoCon, 2011-S2021

The chart includes three teams no longer in the conference (Appalachian State, Elon, and Georgia Southern) and all of the current league members, including two teams (ETSU and VMI) that rejoined the conference since the 2011 season.

As mentioned, only conference games are listed. I’ve also noted the total number of league games played each year.

Since 2011, 44.81% of all SoCon contests have been close games. The rate has been quite consistent over the years; the highest percentage of close games during that time was last season (55.17%), while the lowest was in 2014 (32.14%). If you combine those two campaigns, the average comes out to 43.86%, right near the mean — and the other years are all between 41%-50%.

A few random observations:

Not counting Appalachian State or Georgia Southern (both of which left the SoCon after the 2013 season), the team with the best record in one-score games has been Wofford, while the unluckiest team in that respect has been VMI.
In its five seasons since rejoining the conference, East Tennessee State has played by far the highest percentage of close games (68.42%).
Conversely, Western Carolina has the lowest rate of close games (26.32%).

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The Citadel has played 78 league games since 2011. In 39 of those contests — exactly half — the Bulldogs have been involved in a one-score game.

In all SoCon matchups over the period, The Citadel has a record of 41-37, so the Bulldogs have a slightly better record in games that are not close (22-17) than in games that are (19-20).

What does it all mean? Does it mean anything at all?

Generally speaking, over time a team’s record in one-score games should be right around .500, and that is the case for The Citadel. When it comes to close contests, the program has not been a statistical outlier from a historical perspective (which might comes as a surprise in some quarters).

One takeaway, then, might be that instead of hoping small advancements will lead to a better record in close games, the actual intended results should be for fewer close games, with the difference being several more decisive victories.

Regardless, odds are that at least three of the Bulldogs’ league matchups this season will go right down to the wire. As always, critical plays have to be made in those key moments.

The fans have to be ready, too…

Filed under: Football, The Citadel | Tagged: Appalachian State, East Tennessee State, SoCon, The Citadel, VMI, Western Carolina, Wofford | Leave a comment »

2021 Spring Football, Game 3: The Citadel vs. Western Carolina

Posted on March 11, 2021 by Sandlapper Spike

The Citadel at Western Carolina, to be played in Cullowhee, North Carolina, on the grounds of Bob Waters Field at E.J. Whitmire Stadium, with kickoff at 1:00 pm ET on March 13, 2021.

The game will be streamed on ESPN+. Daniel Hooker will handle play-by-play, while Dan Gibson supplies the analysis.

The contest can be heard on radio via The Citadel Sports Network. WQNT-1450 AM [audio link], originating in Charleston, will be the flagship station.

Luke Mauro (the “Voice of the Bulldogs”) calls the action alongside analyst Lee Glaze.

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Links of interest:

– Jaylan Adams shows his potential

– Spring football is different

– Game notes from The Citadel and Western Carolina

– SoCon weekly release

– Preview on The Citadel’s website

– Preview on Western Carolina’s website (when available)

– The Citadel releases its fall 2021 schedule

– “Live Stats” online platform

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I posted links to game notes for The Citadel and Western Carolina above, along with the SoCon’s weekly release. For anyone interested, here are links to this week’s game notes for the other league schools (except for Chattanooga’s, as the Mocs are off this Saturday):

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The Citadel’s listed depth chart for the game against Western Carolina, by class:

Freshmen: 10
Redshirt freshmen: 8
Sophomores: 2
Redshirt sophomores: 12
Juniors: 11
Redshirt juniors: 5
Seniors: 2
Redshirt seniors: 0
Graduate students: 2

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There was actually a change from the two-deep for the Chattanooga game, as someone apparently decided that not including Nathan Storch on the depth chart this week would have been a bit too obvious.

Look, I appreciate receiving information about the program as much as anyone, but it would be better if that information was at least reasonably accurate. Releasing depth charts that bear little relation to the actual on-field activity is not particularly helpful.

I don’t think anyone is giving away state secrets by listing these players, either. Any opponent is unlikely to gather sensitive information via the school’s game notes. Besides, if anyone wants to know the status of, for example, the Bulldogs’ middle linebacker, all that person had to do this week was read the newspaper article that directly quoted Brent Thompson.

Also, I don’t think anyone is fooled by the mysterious “Desitin Mack” who has appeared on the two-deep at punt returner in every edition of The Citadel’s game notes this spring season. He looks a lot like Bulldogs starting cornerback Destin Mack. In fact, they wear the same uniform number.

Then there is the participation list, which for the Chattanooga game included at least one player who did not appear in the contest (and going by Brent Thompson’s comments, there were several others listed who were not participants).

That is a bigger problem than two-deep inaccuracies, as participation lists are supposed to be official records. Those fans of The Citadel with long memories will remember a time many years ago when a question of participation became a subject of controversy.

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Bulldogs beat writer Jeff Hartsell noted that he had “never heard of” Nathan Storch prior to last Saturday’s game. After intensive research, however, it has been determined that by virtue of his 19-carry performance against UTC, the freshman from Dorman High School in Spartanburg is already the third most famous Storch in recorded history. His fame only lags behind music producer Scott Storch and legendary comedian/actor Larry Storch (a/k/a Corporal Agarn and Cool Cat).

Given his promising debut, I like Nathan Storch’s chances of eventually moving into second place in this category. He admittedly has a lot of ground to cover in order to pass Larry Storch (who incidentally is still alive as of this writing, at age 98).

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Updated career points scored by Bulldogs on the active spring roster:

Raleigh Webb – 128
Clay Harris – 36
Nkem Njoku – 18
Jaylan Adams – 20
Colby Kintner – 19
Darique Hampton – 6
Cooper Wallace – 6

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Here are a few Raleigh Webb career statistics to consider:

– Webb has now played in 40 games for The Citadel. He has 20 TDs from the WR position (18 receiving, 2 rushing), so he averages a TD every other game as a receiver in an option offense.

– He has 70 career receptions, which means he has scored a touchdown every 3.9 receptions. He has averaged 21.3 yards per reception.

– Webb also has one kickoff return TD, and one 2-point conversion.

Only Andre Roberts has scored more points from the wide receiver position as a Bulldog.

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Western Carolina’s listed depth chart for the game versus The Citadel, by class:

Freshmen: 12
Redshirt Freshmen: 4
Sophomores: 7
Redshirt sophomores: 9
Juniors: 6
Redshirt juniors: 6
Seniors: 3
Redshirt seniors: 3
Graduate students: 1

The graduate student is starting quarterback Ryan Glover (who did his undergraduate work at Penn).

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Western Carolina has struggled in its three spring games, losing 35-7 at Furman, 55-27 at Samford, and 30-7 last week against VMI (the Catamounts’ first home game of the 2021 campaign).

WCU ranks last in league play in both rush defense and pass defense, but just next-to-last in pass defense efficiency. As you might expect, The Citadel is last in that stat after its defense allowed 75-yard TD tosses to open each of its two SoCon contests.

Of course, rush/pass defense are both volume categories; it is more pertinent to note that the Catamounts are allowing 5.51 yards per rush (sack-adjusted). While it is one thing to allow 5 yards per carry to Furman, with the Paladins being essentially a run-first outfit, it is quite another to allow 7 yards per rush attempt to pass-happy Samford — and the Birmingham Bulldogs had six rushing TDs as well.

Offensively, Western Carolina is averaging 3.83 yards per rush and 5.89 yards per pass attempt (again, all stats are sack-adjusted). The Catamounts have two TD passes and have thrown three interceptions.

WCU ranks last in the league in both offensive (21.6%) and defensive (50.0%) third down conversion rate, and also trails the pack in time of possession (24:03). Western Carolina has committed more penalties per game than any team in the league except for (naturally) The Citadel.

On the bright side, the Catamounts have yet to lose a fumble and are break-even in turnover margin, as the defense has intercepted three passes in the three conference games.

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Odds and ends:

– The weather forecast for Saturday in Cullowhee, per the National Weather Service: a 20% chance of rain, with a high of 68°.

– Per one source that deals in such matters, The Citadel (as of March 11) is a 14-point favorite at Western Carolina. The over/under is 50½.

– Other SoCon lines this week (as of March 11): Wofford is a 1-point favorite at Samford (over/under of 55); VMI is a 6½-point favorite over Mercer (over/under of 57); and Furman is a 10½-point favorite at East Tennessee State (over/under of 47).

A few more games of note in FCS: South Carolina State is a 10½-point favorite over Delaware State; Presbyterian is a 6½-point favorite over Morehead State; Holy Cross is a 7½-point favorite at Lehigh; Delaware is a 7½-point favorite over Stony Brook; Villanova is a 14½-point favorite over Rhode Island; Davidson is a 9½-point favorite at Stetson; Kennesaw State is a 16-point favorite over Charleston Southern; Northern Iowa is a 4-point favorite at Southern Illinois; Colgate is a 5½-point favorite at Lafayette; Eastern Washington is a 17-point favorite at Idaho State; and North Dakota State is a 12½-point favorite over Illinois State.

– Western Carolina’s notable alumni include triple option advocate Paul Johnson, comedian Rich Hall, and college basketball pioneer Ronnie Carr.

– The Citadel is 26-17-1 against Western Carolina in the all-time series.

– Western Carolina’s 97-man spring roster includes 49 players from North Carolina. Other states represented: South Carolina (19), Georgia (17), Alabama (4), Tennessee (2), Virginia (2), and one each from Florida, Maryland, New York, and Pennsylvania.

– Among conference schools, I believe Western Carolina is tied with VMI for having the fewest Florida natives on its roster (one).

– The following South Carolina high schools have graduates on WCU’s squad: Byrnes (3 players), Blythewood (3), Lakewood, Ridge View, Greer, Irmo, Hartsville, T.L. Hanna, Northwestern, Branchville, Wilson, Indian Land, Clover, Gilbert, and White Knoll.

– While there are plenty of Palmetto State products on WCU’s squad, none can claim to be an alumnus of the internationally renowned pigskin factory that is Orangeburg-Wilkinson High School. Western Carolina will never reach the heights of 1983 again if it does not correct this shocking oversight. Ronnie Carr is simply appalled, as well he should be.

The incredible individuals who wear the famed maroon and orange are simply must-gets for any college football recruiting operation.

– WCU has four players who transferred in from four-year schools; those schools are Penn, Boston College, South Carolina State, and Western Kentucky. There are also six junior college transfers on the roster.

– The Citadel’s geographic roster breakdown (per the school’s game notes) is as follows: South Carolina (48 players), Georgia (15), Florida (9), North Carolina (7), Texas (3), Pennsylvania (2), Virginia (2), and one each from Alabama, Kentucky, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Tennessee.

Tight end Hayden Williamson played his high school football in Okinawa, Japan.

– The Citadel’s football team has an all-time record of 0-0 for games played on March 13. That is tied for the fewest wins, and fewest losses, for any date in program history.

– This week during the 1990 baseball season at The Citadel:

The Bulldogs entered the week 10-1. On March 7, The Citadel won at Coastal Carolina, 7-3. Billy Baker pitched six innings and got the win; he also went 3 for 5 at the plate, with two doubles. Anthony Jenkins’ two-run double capped a four-run rally in the eighth inning.

The following day, the Bulldogs whipped Liberty 10-3. Chris Coker drove in five runs, while the red-hot Jenkins homered again.

That set up a big 3-game series to open SoCon play against Western Carolina. The Citadel swept the Catamounts, winning the three games by scores of 6-3, 7-3, and 10-3 (which made five straight games in which the Bulldogs’ opponents scored exactly three runs).

In a doubleheader sweep to open the series, Ken Britt and Richard Shirer both picked up wins, each striking out five batters. In the first game, Hank Kraft earned the save, his third of the season. Jenkins and Gettys Glaze had two-hit games in both contests.

The third game featured a 4-RBI afternoon from Tony Skole, including a two-run triple in the first inning. Baker (the winning pitcher), Jenkins, Phil Tobin, and Dan McDonnell also drove in runs for the Bulldogs.

On March 13, The Citadel rallied from an 8-4 deficit to beat George Mason, 9-8. The game was shortened to eight innings due to darkness (College Park still did not have lights at this time because of Hurricane Hugo). The Bulldogs only had three hits — all singles — but walked nine times, and took full advantage of five errors by the Patriots. Glaze got the win in relief.

The Citadel was 6-0 during the week ending March 13, with a winning streak of fifteen games. The overall record stood at 16-1 (3-0 SoCon).

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This was not a long preview, partly because I didn’t have a lot of time to write it, and also because there really isn’t a whole lot to say.

The Citadel needs to win on Saturday. It would be a major disappointment to everyone who supports the military college if Western Carolina managed to break its eight-game losing streak.

The Citadel should be able to run the football on offense, and the defense should be able to consistently get stops. That is about the size of it.

I’m ready to watch the Bulldogs win on Saturday. Very ready.

Filed under: Football, The Citadel | Tagged: Brent Thompson, Destin Mack, Jaylan Adams, Larry Storch, Nathan Storch, Raleigh Webb, Ronnie Carr, Ryan Glover, SoCon, The Citadel, Western Carolina | Leave a comment »

Game Review, 2019: Western Carolina

Posted on October 13, 2019 by Sandlapper Spike

Links of interest:

– Game story, The Post and Courier

– Associated Press story

– WCSC-TV game report (with video)

– School release

– Game highlights (video)

– Box score

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Stats of note:

	The Citadel	WCU
Field Position	35.11 (+5.98)	29.13 (-5.98)
Success Rate*	51.79%	46.15%
Big plays (20+ yards)	5	4
Finishing drives**	5.83	3.40
Turnovers	0	3
Expected turnovers	0.0	1.38
Possessions*	9	8
Points per possession*	4.38	2.13
Offensive Plays*	56	66
Yards/rush* (sacks taken out)	6.54	5.10
Yards/pass att (including sacks)*	18.25	5.14
Yards/play*	7.38	5.12
3rd down conversions*	2 of 10	12 of 18
4th down conversions	4 of 4	2 of 4
Red Zone TD%**	4 of 4 (100%)	2 of 4 (50%)
Net punting	33.0	45.0
Time of possession	32:21	27:39
TOP/offensive play	31.82 seconds	25.14 seconds
Penalties	4 for 37 yards	9 for 76 yards
1st down passing	3/4, 73 yards, 3 TD	7/9, 50 yards, int***
3rd and long passing	0/0	5/5, 104 yards, sack
4th down passing	0/0	1/2, 5 yards, int
1st down yards/play	9.57	2.52
3rd down average yards to go	5.45	8.18
Defensive 3-and-outs+	2	2

*final drive of 1st half for The Citadel not included; last two plays of 2nd half for The Citadel not included
**final drive of 2nd half for The Citadel not included

***also sacked twice

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Random thoughts on the above stats and a few other things…

– Western Carolina managed to convert 12 of 18 third downs. The Catamounts were only 2 for 5 on 3rd-and-short (1 or 2 yards), but were 6 for 9 on 3rd-and-long (8+ yards). That included conversions on 3rd and 8 (twice), 3rd and 9, 3rd and 14, 3rd and 17, and 3rd and 19.

I don’t need to tell you that it is less than ideal for a defense to allow a 66.7% conversion rate on 3rd-and-long. The Bulldogs have to get stops in those situations.

What made it all the more puzzling was the Bulldogs’ success defending short-yardage plays. Five times, Western Carolina faced a 3rd or 4th down of one yard or less. Only twice did WCU pick up the first down.

– The Citadel had four sacks yesterday. All four of them came on WCU’s final offensive drive. Two of them set up 3rd-and-long situations that the Catamounts subsequently converted.

– One of those four sacks was by Joseph Randolph II (who wears jersey number 98). However, the PA announcer mistakenly credited it to freshman linebacker Anthony Britton Jr. (jersey number 88).

The senior defensive lineman heard the announcement; shaking his head, he pulled down on his jersey to emphasize the “98” and raised his arms in the air, as if to say “That was me!”

Yes, the players can hear the loudspeaker announcements, and the crowd.

– I don’t know if the coaches and players can hear some of the individual comments from the crowd, though; I hope not.

I often wish I couldn’t hear some of the fans’ opinions. Lately, this includes a couple of guys who get extremely upset if the fullback dive doesn’t gain at least five yards. The fact that the play is a core component of the triple option offense doesn’t seem to matter to them.

And yes, we all know the defense needs to get more pressure on the quarterback. The coaches and players know that too.

Just chill, guys.

– One thing fans have every right to complain about is the SoCon officials and their ball-spotting abilities. There were some hilarious errors on Saturday.

– The Citadel’s first down passing numbers were about as good as anyone could want. The only incompletion came during the second drive of the game, at the Bulldogs’ 38-yard line. Two subsequent running plays set up a 4th-and-3 on the 45 yard line; Brandon Rainey rushed for a seven-yard gain and a first down.

It is possible that Brent Thompson called that pass play knowing that there was a strong likelihood he would go for it on 4th down anyway, so he had three plays with which to work to pick up the first down.

– The Citadel won the turnover battle 3-0. This was only the second time all season the Bulldogs had the edge in that category.

– The Bulldogs are now 15 for 21 (71.4%) converting 4th downs this season. The Citadel is among the FCS leaders in both attempts (tied for 4th nationally) and conversions (3rd). Among teams with 10+ tries on fourth down, the Bulldogs are 4th in conversion percentage.

– Western Carolina should be credited for not giving up when it fell behind 28-3, and keeping things interesting until late in the fourth quarter. Tyrie Adams made several fine plays, though his most impressive maneuver was the way he bounced back up after taking a huge sack from Phil Barrett — the “no hands” jump-to-his-feet acrobatics. Holding on to the ball after taking the hit was also commendable.

– It was a very pleasant afternoon. I wish more people had been there to enjoy it (attendance: 8,023), but I wasn’t surprised by the turnout.

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Next game: The Citadel travels to Greenville to play Furman. The Paladins were off this past Saturday.

I’ll preview that contest later in the week.

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I took some pictures, as usual. There aren’t as many game action shots this week.