College Football Week 10, 2021: Friday notes and observations

From Tuesday, my weekly statistical review/preview (including The Citadel, Samford, and FCS in general)

Keys for The Citadel, from The Post and Courier

Game notes for The Citadel

Game notes for Samford

SoCon weekly release

Broadcast information

The Citadel at Samford, to be played on Bobby Bowden Field at Seibert Stadium in Birmingham, Alabama, with kickoff at 3:00 pm ET on November 6, 2021.

The game will be streamed on ESPN+. Play-by-play will be handled by Curt Bloom, while Damian Mitchell supplies the analysis. Graham Doty is the sideline reporter.

The contest can be heard on radio via The Citadel Sports Network. WQNT-1450 AM [audio link], originating in Charleston, will be the flagship station. Other stations carrying the game include WQXL in Columbia (100.7 FM/1470 AM) and WDXY in Sumter (105.9 FM/1240 AM).

Luke Mauro (the “Voice of the Bulldogs”) calls the action alongside analyst Lee Glaze. 

“Live Stats” for the game

Roster review

– Of the 112 players on The Citadel’s online roster, 61 are from South Carolina. Other states represented: Georgia (18 players), Florida (11), North Carolina (9), Virginia (4), Alabama (2), Texas (2), and one each from New York, Oklahoma, Ohio, and Tennessee.

Tight end Hayden Williamson played his high school football in Okinawa, Japan.

– Samford has 119 players on its online roster. Of those, 42 are from the state of Alabama. Other states with players on SU’s squad: Georgia (29), Tennessee (14), Florida (10), Mississippi (8), North Carolina (2), Arkansas (2), Kentucky (2), Louisiana (2), and one each from California, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, South Carolina, Texas, and Virginia.

The one Palmetto State product on Samford’s team is freshman reserve placekicker/punter Henry Bishop, who attended Spartanburg High School.

The Birmingham Bulldogs’ punter, three-year regular Bradley Porcellato, is from Melbourne, Australia.

– SU has 15 players who transferred in from four-year schools and four others who arrived from junior colleges. Three of the university transfers are from UAB. The others are from Dartmouth, Jackson State, Jacksonville State, Morehead State, Murray State, North Carolina State, North Texas, Southern Mississippi, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, William Jewell College, and the University of Sioux Falls.

– Because all of Samford’s players have assigned jersey numbers, 21 of them actually share a number with another player. It isn’t unusual for multiple players to have the same number, of course, but 21 is a lot. Ensuring that two players with the same number aren’t on the field at the same time (particularly on special teams) is probably a regular duty for someone on the coaching staff.

– For Samford to have 119 players on an FCS roster, especially into the month of November, is slightly unusual and arguably rather impressive. It should be noted that SU also had by far the most players on its roster in the spring among SoCon programs (95).

Given that FCS lines are now not readily available until Saturday morning (at least, from what I have been able to determine), I won’t be listing any lines and totals for the subdivision. There are some lines out there for three of the SoCon games on Saturday (but not totals). The Citadel-Samford is the one league contest for which I can’t find any line. 

  • Chattanooga is an 18½-point favorite at Wofford (as of 11/6, the Mocs are 19½-point faves; o/u of 45½)
  • Furman is a 6½-point favorite at Western Carolina (as of 11/6, FU is a 4½-point fave; o/u of 51½)
  • East Tennessee State is a 7½-point favorite against VMI (as of 11/6, ETSU is a 6-point fave; o/u of 59)

Mercer is off this week.

Edit: Saturday, November 6, at 11:45 am ET — Per one source that deals in such matters, Samford is a 9½-point favorite over The Citadel, with an over/under of 77½.

I do have numbers from my own projection system, which as I have mentioned before is highly experimental and even more highly suspect. This is what my numbers say about Saturday’s FCS games (I include the tenths of a decimal point just to look cutting-edge):

 

Road team Home team Road tm score Home tm score
Sacred Heart St. Francis PA 18.5 18.4
Merrimack Wagner 30.6 17.4
Bryant Central Conn. State 24.9 21.4
Drake Marist 15.5 20.2
Kennesaw State Robert Morris 32.0 11.9
Alcorn State Bethune-Cookman 28.9 23.0
Stony Brook Maine 22.2 23.3
Yale Brown 37.0 24.7
Lafayette Holy Cross 15.3 26.8
Fordham Georgetown 38.4 23.4
Cornell Penn 20.2 25.4
Duquesne Long Island 28.0 15.7
Harvard Columbia 25.2 18.4
St. Thomas Davidson 21.1 25.7
Dixie State Sam Houston State 12.0 46.1
VMI ETSU 26.5 29.7
North Carolina A&T Charleston Southern 24.9 29.1
Missouri State Southern Illinois 28.0 32.0
Northern Iowa Illinois State 26.3 14.3
South Dakota Western Illinois 31.0 21.6
Youngstown State North Dakota 18.5 31.8
New Hampshire Albany 21.6 21.2
William and Mary Delaware 22.8 15.5
Lehigh Bucknell 18.4 18.1
Nicholls State McNeese State 28.1 27.2
Dayton Stetson 34.5 27.3
Gardner-Webb Hampton 32.7 29.0
North Alabama Monmouth 19.5 36.8
Chattanooga Wofford 30.8 11.1
Presbyterian Valparaiso 29.4 44.8
Furman Western Carolina 32.8 24.4
Tennessee Tech Murray State 16.7 25.4
Howard South Carolina State 19.6 32.1
Mississippi Valley St. Alabama A&M 23.8 33.7
Towson Richmond 18.9 22.3
Abilene Christian Jacksonville State 20.0 28.5
Villanova Elon 27.7 17.8
Norfolk State NC Central 27.5 21.0
Texas Southern Jackson State 20.0 39.0
Montana Northern Colorado 30.7 12.4
Alabama State Prairie View A&M 15.4 28.0
Grambling State Arkansas-Pine Bluff 25.8 20.7
Eastern Illinois Austin Peay 18.4 35.4
SE Louisiana Incarnate Word 37.4 34.5
The Citadel Samford 33.9 45.9
UC Davis Northern Arizona 32.0 24.1
Portland State Weber State 17.4 32.6
Tennessee State UT Martin 15.1 28.4
North Dakota State South Dakota State 22.1 21.1
Campbell James Madison 14.0 37.9
Morehead State San Diego 27.9 33.3
Southern Utah Idaho 24.6 30.8
Houston Baptist Northwestern State 26.8 33.3
Montana State Eastern Washington 32.9 35.9
Eastern Kentucky Stephen F. Austin 25.2 24.5
Florida A&M Southern 26.8 20.5
Lamar Tarleton State 17.3 29.1
Cal Poly Sacramento State 14.6 38.6

Based on the FCS lines available as of Saturday morning, my numbers favor taking Presbyterian +20, North Dakota State +3, and Eastern Kentucky +3½. All of them are road underdogs.

As far as the totals are concerned, my system likes one over (North Carolina A&T at Charleston Southern, with a current total of 47½) and a bunch of unders:

  • Alcorn State at Bethune-Cookman (total of 59)
  • Yale at Brown (69)
  • Duquesne at LIU (51½)
  • Gardner-Webb at Hampton (68½)
  • Mississippi Valley State at Alabama A&M (64½)
  • Norfolk State at North Carolina Central (55½)
  • Southeastern Louisiana at Incarnate Word (81½)
  • Southern Utah at Idaho (62½)

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