Game Review, 2018: Mercer

Posted on September 23, 2018 by Sandlapper Spike

Links of interest:

– Game story, The Post and Courier

– “Notes” package (mostly on the Rod Johnson kickoff return), The Post and Courier

– AP game story

– School release from The Citadel

– School release from Mercer

– “Notes” section on the game from The Macon Telegraph

– Facebook video postgame report by writers from Mercer’s student newspaper (I think in association with The Macon Telegraph)

– Video from WCBD-TV

– Video from WCSC-TV (via Twitter)

– Game highlights (video)

– Boxscore

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After the game was over, because I am a mondo sports nerd, I tweeted this semi-serious (but true!) factoid:

If you don’t mind indulging me, I wanted to expand on this, mainly by quoting The News and Courier‘s game commentary from October 3, 1926.

To set this up…

The Citadel traveled to Mercer for a game played on October 2, 1926. It was a hot afternoon (much like it was in Macon yesterday), and about 3,000 spectators were in attendance.

The Bears were a solid favorite. Mercer’s team included Wally Butts and the highly regarded Joseph “Phoney” Smith, who was one of the great halfbacks of his day. (Incidentally, if you think “Phoney” is an interesting nickname, Smith’s brother Byron was known as “Crook”.)

Wally Butts, of course, is best known for his long stint as the head football coach at Georgia (and for an infamous scandal involving Paul “Bear” Bryant).

Despite being at a perceived disadvantage, the Bulldogs were in control for much of the contest and led 6-0 before a Mercer score gave the home team a 7-6 lead. Then, with less than three minutes remaining, the Bears drove down to The Citadel’s 11-yard line, and attempted to punch in a decisive TD. However, Dick “Moonie” Brown and Eddie Doyle had other ideas:

Then came the most dramatic moment of the afternoon. The ball was snapped, Skelton [the Mercer quarterback] darted to the line of scrimmage, passed [by] it a few yards and seemed to rise up in the air and then shoot back towards his own goal, following a sickening impact of human bodies, as Moonie Brown’s head was buried in the runner’s stomach.

The ball rolled to one side. Immediately it was surrounded by blue jerseys. Eddie Doyle, who had only a few moments before replaced the brilliant but tired Oscar Reeder, scooped it up and began the long journey.

In the World War destroyers guarded huge ships crossing the Atlantic. This afternoon the dreadnaughts of The Citadel team conveyed the little destroyer of Macon’s hopes safely down the ninety yards.

Not a [single] Mercer man got within twenty yards near the squadron and to have gotten to Doyle, they would have had to kill several Citadel men.

Mercer’s game program included illustrations of several players, but only one Bulldog: Eddie Doyle.

The writer of the game story excerpted above was The News and Courier‘s sports editor, C.D. Weimer. In the spring of 1927, Weimer left Charleston to take an editorial position with another newspaper.

Before he left, though, Weimer was the guest of honor at a supper held at The Citadel which was attended by the entire Corps of Cadets. He was presented with a watch chain and a small gold football as a token of the Corps’ esteem for him.

Those were the days…

Speaking of the Corps of Cadets, they also celebrated victories a little differently back then than they do today. As described by The News and Courier at the time:

Big Saturday night crowds and heavy early-evening traffic were blocked for ten minutes at the corner of King and Wentworth streets last night when more than 400 Citadel cadets halted there for a hilarious celebration of the Blue and White’s victory over Mercer at Macon yesterday afternoon.

The cadets, led by Butler Doolittle, of Atlanta, of the Class of ’17, and former cheerleader at the military college, had marched the full three miles from the barracks at Hampton Park, cheering and singing all the way. Many had pulled out their shirt-tails. Those who wore khaki-colored shirts pulled out the tails and tied handkerchiefs on the end to gain the effect of a trailing white shirt-tail.

Swinging down Rutledge Avenue after leaving The Citadel, the cadets turned at Calhoun and then turned into King. They all but filled the narrow and busy thoroughfare as they swooped down toward Wentworth. Hundreds of shoppers stopped and gazed; not a few followed.

At Wentworth the perspiring, happy and now hoarse youths hoisted a cheerleader to shoulders and this busy corner heard yells seldom heard except at Hampton Park.

As the cadets ruled the corner impatient motorists pressed their horn buttons, but in the din they were hardly heard.

—

Okay, enough about the roaring ’20s. Let’s look at some stats from Saturday’s game:

Category The Citadel Mercer
Field Position -5.5 +5.5
Success Rate 47.8% 43.1%
Explosiveness 1.17 1.26
Finishing drives 4.8 (5) 5.2 (6)
Turnovers 0 1
Possessions 9 10
Offensive Plays 69 65
Yards/rush 5.2 3.5
Yards/pass attempt 16.7 7.1
Yards/play 6.9 5.8
3rd down conversions 6/14 6/12
4th down conversions 4/5 1/1
Red Zone TD% 66.7 (2/3) 75.0 (3/4)
Net punting 31.0 48.7
Time of possession 32:36:00 27:24:00
TOP/offensive play 28.34 sec 25.15 sec
Penalties 4/50 4/18
1st down passing 3/4 118 yds 9/14 125 yds 1 sk
3rd/long passing 0/1 4/5 44 yds 3 sks
4th down passing 0/0 0/0
1st down yards/play 9.8 5.8
3rd down average yards to go 4.6 7.3

Note: Mercer’s final play of the first half is not counted in the numbers above. Also, sacks (and pass plays resulting in sacks) are listed in the passing stats, not the rushing totals — particularly relevant in this game because The Citadel had five sacks.

—

Random observations:

– Mercer’s 3.5 yards per rush was the lowest allowed this season by the Bulldogs, continuing a positive trend over the first three games.

– The Citadel’s offensive Success Rate was its best so far in 2018, and its offensive Explosiveness quotient was easily the highest in the three contests played so far. The defensive Explosiveness number was the lowest for a Bulldogs opponent this year (which is good, just for clarification).

– The Citadel has had a time of possession edge of at least five minutes in all three games.

– In terms of Red Zone TD rate, the Bulldogs have gone 2 for 3 in all three of their matchups this year.

– This was the first game in which The Citadel did not have the field position edge. However, that doesn’t take into account the kick return TD.

– The Bulldogs’ average yards to go on third down of 4.6 yards was a significant improvement from the first two games of the season, and also indirectly led to the team going for it on 4th down several times. The Citadel was frequently in third-down situations where only four or five yards were needed to move the chains; when the Bulldogs didn’t make it on third down, Brent Thompson was comfortable going for it on 4th-and-short (four of the five fourth-down attempts came on 4th-and-1 or 4th-and-2).

– Jordan Black threw ten passes against Mercer. Only three of them came in true passing situations (2nd-and-long or 3rd-and-long). Given the chance to throw a higher percentage of his passes in standard down-and-distance circumstances, Black excelled. On those seven pass attempts, he was 5 for 7 for 167 yards.

– In a game with more of its share of big plays, one of the most important was a five-yard gain. With the Bulldogs deep in their own territory midway through the fourth quarter, Curt Nixon made a nice catch on 3rd-and-3 to pick up a first down. Four plays later, The Citadel led for the first time in the contest.

– Only two kickoff returns in The Citadel’s gridiron history have been longer than Rod Johnson’s 94-yard game-winner on Saturday. Bud Pough had a 100-yard KOR for a touchdown against Appalachian State in 2002, and Danny Miller had a 95-yarder versus Wofford in 1979.

Johnson’s kickoff return matched Carlos Frank’s 94-yard TD against Georgia Southern in 1996.

– Raleigh Webb’s 77-yard touchdown catch from Jordan Black was the 10th-longest pass play in school annals, and the longest since 2008, when Bart Blanchard threw a 78-yarder to Andre Roberts versus Webber International. It was the longest TD reception caught by a Bulldog not named Andre Roberts in this century.

– Khafari Buffalo’s first career interception was a big one, and a rather athletic play to boot. He was injured making the pick and did not return to the game. I hope he is okay, as it appeared on replay that his head hit the turf when he fell.

– I also wish Mercer quarterback Robert Riddle the best after his unfortunate injury late in the game. He seemed to hurt his shoulder, and it did not look good.

I was impressed with Riddle, who has a sneaky-strong throwing arm. He is one of those guys who you don’t think can make the throw he’s about to make, but then the ball gets where it needs to go. Riddle had a little help from some of his receivers (particularly Marquise Irvin).

– If Riddle is going to be out for an extended period of time, at least Mercer has the benefit of an experienced (and in my opinion, talented) quarterback in Kaelan Riley. The Bears now have a bye week, which should help in his preparation for their next game, which is at Yale.

While I am not someone who automatically supports SoCon teams against non-league opponents, I am definitely rooting for the Bears in that matchup.

– I could write a 5000-word screed on how poor the officiating was at times on Saturday, but I’ll just say that having instant replay doesn’t help if it isn’t utilized properly. Also, there isn’t much the guy in the booth can do about bad pass interference calls, especially those seemingly made long after the play was over.

It made the victory for the Bulldogs that much sweeter, as they had to overcome more than they really should have. My basic takeaway from the contest was that both teams played well, but that the better team on the day deservedly won the game.

—

I’ll post a preview of the Towson game later in the week. The Tigers will be a tough matchup for The Citadel, as they look to be considerably better than expected.

That writeup probably won’t be as long as most of my previews. I am very busy over the course of the next few weeks (which is why I could not make the trip to Macon), and will not be able to put as much time into research, writing, etc. There will probably not be a review of the Towson game, and my ETSU preview in two weeks will likely be quite short.

That’s not a big deal, though. A little less verbiage on this blog isn’t going to hurt anybody.

Go Dogs!

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2017 Football, Game 5: The Citadel vs. Mercer

Posted on October 5, 2017 by Sandlapper Spike

The Citadel vs. Mercer, to be played at historic Johnson Hagood Stadium, with kickoff at 2:00 pm ET on October 7, 2017.

The game will be streamed on ESPN3.com. Kevin Fitzgerald will handle play-by-play, while former Bulldogs linebacker James Riley supplies the analysis. 

The contest can be heard on radio via the various affiliates of The Citadel Sports Network. WQNT-1450 AM [audio link], originating in Charleston, will be the flagship station. 

Mike Legg (the “Voice of the Bulldogs”) will call the action alongside analyst Lee Glaze. 

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The Citadel Sports Network — 2017 Affiliates

Charleston: WQNT 1450AM/92.1 FM/102.1 FM (Flagship)
Columbia: WQXL 1470AM/95.9FM
Greenville: WLFJ 92.9FM/660AM
Sumter: WDXY 1240AM/105.9FM

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Links of interest:

– The Citadel won’t hit the panic button

– Back at home after a month away

– Game notes from The Citadel and Mercer

– SoCon weekly release

– FCS Coaches’ poll (The Citadel is ranked #17)

– STATS FCS poll (The Citadel is ranked #17)

– Brent Thompson’s 10/3 press conference, including comments from Tyler Davis and Kailik Williams (video)

– Brent Thompson’s 10/4 radio show (video)

– The Bulldog Breakdown [10/2] (video)

– Mercer running game searching for its rhythm

– Bears rout VMI

– Mercer is right back in the SoCon title race

– Bobby Lamb says the series has been “a bloodbath”

– Mercer’s student newspaper: this is the best MU team since football was re-instituted in 2013

– Mercer highlights versus VMI (video)

– Mercer highlights versus Wofford (video)

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It is very disappointing when the Bulldogs throw in a complete clunker of a game, regardless of the sport. That is magnified in football, however, because there are only a limited number of opportunities to generate a positive outcome. It is important to make the most of each and every contest.

That didn’t happen on Saturday. The contest was essentially over after the first quarter. I know that the team “played better” in the second half, but does that really matter? I don’t think so, to be honest.

Garbage time is garbage time, particularly when the team in question is not an extremely young squad, but rather an outfit coming off consecutive league titles and expected to compete for another one. There are no truly positive developments to be taken from the debacle at Seibert Stadium. It was simply a bad loss.

That said, the following is also true: many of the players and coaches on the current team have been part of the pigskin scene at the military college for the last 2+ years.

Over that time period The Citadel is 22-7, 15-2 in the SoCon, with two conference crowns and a win over an SEC team (along with a road playoff triumph). The next victory by the current edition of the Bulldogs will tie the 1959-60-61 teams for most wins by the program over a three-year period (23).

In other words, there are a bunch of winners on the roster. They are used to success, and they’re not likely to take a step back after a bad performance.

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Temporary stands have been set up on the East side of Johnson Hagood Stadium in time for the game against Mercer:

Seating has been added to the east side of Johnson Hagood Stadium for the stretch run of the 2017 season. The seating is general admission and will be available on a first-come, first-serve so fans are encouraged to purchase their general admission tickets in advance. The seating is in close proximity to the Bulldog Beer Garden and the Kids’ Zone…

The Bulldog Beer Garden…is located next to the Altman Center on the southeast side of the stadium. Concessions including food and beverages will be located in this area presented by Sticky Fingers.  The adjacent location will also have a kid’s fun zone with inflatables for children of appropriate ages.  The Bulldog Beer Garden will be tented, accommodate up to 500 patrons, and will have TVs playing football games of interest…

…[the Kids’ Zone] includes Jumpcastles, face painting, and other fun activities [that] are available for ages 12 & under.

The temporary seating (not including the beer garden) will have room for approximately 1,000 spectators.

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Saturday’s game is part of Parents’ Weekend. Schedule of events: Link

On Friday, seniors will receive their class rings. That is a big deal at The Citadel, of course, even for football players who have already picked up their fair share of hardware. As Kailik Williams said:

It means a lot. A lot of people didn’t think I was going to make it. Sometimes, I didn’t even think I was going to make it.

There are plenty of alums who can relate to that sentiment.

—

The football program is currently on a very good run when it comes to the “celebration games”, Parents’ Day and Homecoming. The Citadel has won ten straight of those contests, winning on Parents’ Day and Homecoming in each of the last five seasons.

From what I can tell, that is the longest winning streak in those games since the Bulldogs’ first Homecoming game — which, according to former school president/historian Oliver Bond, occurred in 1924. The Citadel defeated Furman 6-0 in that October 25 contest at Hampton Park before more than 4,000 fans, with Anderson native Carl Hogrefe scoring the winning touchdown.

However, five Parents’ Day wins in a row is not a school record. The mark for sustained success on Parents’ Day is eight, a streak that began in 1978 with a 21-14 win over Delaware and lasted through 1985, a 10-3 victory over Western Carolina.

The Citadel has not played Mercer on Parents’ Day or Homecoming before this season.

—

The Bulldogs led FCS in offensive 3rd-down conversion rate prior to the Samford game (61%). However, The Citadel only converted 3 of 13 third-down attempts last Saturday.

A look at first down/third down plays explains why, especially when compared to the first three games this season.

Average yards picked up on first down by The Citadel:

  • vs. Newberry: 8.1 yards
  • vs. Presbyterian: 7.0 yards
  • vs. East Tennessee State: 6.0 yards
  • vs. Samford: 5.2 yards

That is not a great trend.

It also leads to more difficult third down situations for the Bulldogs:

  • vs. Newberry: average of 5.1 yards needed on third down to pick up a first down
  • vs. Presbyterian: average of 3.0 yards needed on third down to pick up a first down
  • vs. East Tennessee State: average of 6.3 yards needed on third down to pick up a first down
  • vs. Samford: average of 8.8 yards needed on third down to pick up a first down

Those third down conversion attempts against Samford included a 3rd-and-15, a 3rd-and-19, and a 3rd-and-28.

Penalties were a major factor in the offensive struggles. The Bulldogs were flagged eight times on offense (not counting two other infractions that were declined).

—

On defense, the Bulldogs have to do a better job against the pass.

Yards per pass attempt allowed:

  • vs. Newberry: 7.2 yards
  • vs. Presbyterian: 5.1 yards
  • vs. East Tennessee State: 5.7 yards
  • vs. Samford: 12.4

You aren’t going to win many games allowing 12.4 yards per pass attempt.

It should be noted, though, that The Citadel’s offense averaged 10.9 yards per pass attempt itself, in line with its season average. I wouldn’t mind that number for the Bulldogs in any game they play during the season.

—

Key stats for The Citadel through four games:

The Citadel Opponents
Points per game 31.0 20.2
Rushing yardage 1334 351
Average per rush 5.0 3.5
Average per game 333.5 87.8
TDs rushing 12 5
Passing yardage 440 822
Comp-Att-Int 20-42-2 66-108-7
Average per pass 10.5 7.6
TDs passing 5 6
Total offense 1774 1173
Total plays 309 207
Yards per play 5.74 5.67
Kick returns-yards 6-128 12-236
Punt returns-yards 6-44 1-1
Fumbles/lost 6/1 2/1
Avg penalties/penalty yards per game 5.0/43.0 2.5/23.8
Net punt average 39.7 37.2
Time of possession/game 37:24 22:36
3rd down conversions 33/62 12/38
3rd down conversion rate 53.2% 31.6%
Sacks by-yards 8-44 3-20
Field goals-attempts 2-3 1-2
Red Zone touchdown rate 13-19 (68.4%) 6-9 (66.7%)
  • The Citadel leads the nation in time of possession
  • The Bulldogs are second nationally in rushing offense and 14th in the country in rushing defense
  • Despite the 3rd down struggles last week, The Citadel is still 4th in FCS in offensive third down conversion rate
  • Defensively, the Bulldogs are 22nd nationally in third down conversion rate
  • The Citadel is 12th in turnover margin
  • The Bulldogs are 11th in net punting
  • Even with 10 accepted penalties versus Samford, The Citadel is 17th nationally in fewest penalties per game
  • The Citadel is 35th in scoring offense and 29th in scoring defense
  • The Bulldogs are 12th in offensive pass efficiency, a number that includes The Citadel’s 22 yards per catch rate, tops in FCS

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Mercer has been competitive ever since joining the Southern Conference in time for the 2014 football season. The Bears have had a habit of playing close games. What they have not done as often as MU fans would like is win those games.

Since 2014, Mercer has played 14 conference games decided by five points or less. The Bears are 4-10 in those contests. Three of those losses have come against The Citadel, by a total of five points.

Of the four close SoCon victories, two have come on the road (both against VMI). One of the two home wins was a 17-14 decision over Chattanooga in 2015, a result that helped The Citadel claim a share of the Southern Conference title.

This year, Mercer has lost two hard-fought SoCon contests, including a home loss to Wofford that the Bears probably should have won.

—

Mercer’s schedule after five games:

  • beat Jacksonville 48-7, an easy win over an overmatched Pioneer League foe (JU has recovered to win its next 3 games, though)
  • lost 28-27 to Wofford, a game in which the Bears led by 13 points midway through the fourth quarter
  • played very well (particularly on defense) in a 24-10 loss at Auburn; Mercer forced five turnovers in that contest
  • lost 26-23 in overtime at East Tennessee State; MU led by 10 points entering the fourth quarter
  • defeated VMI 49-14, rolling up 575 yards of offense in the process

—

Statistics of note for the Bears:

Mercer Opponents
Points per game 31.4 19.8
Rushing yardage 790 721
Average per rush 3.9 3.4
Average per game 158 144.2
TDs rushing 10 9
Passing yardage 1108 1009
Comp-Att-Int 83-135-5 88-125-5
Average per pass 8.2 8.1
TDs passing 10 3
Total offense 1898 1730
Total plays 340 334
Yards per play 5.58 5.18
Kick returns-yards 12-242 22-267
Punt returns-yards 7-75 7-68
Fumbles/lost 4/2 9/6
Avg penalties/penalty yards per game 5.4/46.2 6.2/62.8
Net punt average 37.4 35.3
Time of possession/game 29:15 30:45
3rd down conversions 28/67 32/72
3rd down conversion rate 41.8% 44.4%
Sacks by-yards 9-57 6-48
Field goals-attempts 4-6 3-6
Red Zone touchdown rate 15/20 (75.0%) 8/15 (53.3%)
  • Mercer leads the nation in kick return defense
  • The Bears are 30th nationally in net punting
  • MU is 40th in FCS in offensive third down conversion rate and
  • Conversely, the Bears are 100th (out of 123 teams) in defensive third down conversion rate
  • Mercer is 54th in rushing offense and 57th in rushing defense
  • MU is 31st in scoring offense and 27th in scoring defense
  • Mercer is 23rd nationally in turnover margin, helped by six recovered fumbles on defense (1oth-best in FCS)

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Mercer’s passing attack accounts for 58.3% of its total offense, though only 41.5% of its offensive plays from scrimmage are passing attempts (including sacks).

After four years as the starter, MU quarterback John Russ graduated. Mercer had a replacement ready, however.

Redshirt freshman Kaelan Riley (6’3″, 222 lbs.) is 80 for 132 passing this season (a 60.6% completion rate), averaging 8.3 yards per attempt, with 10 TD passes against five interceptions. The native of Calhoun, Georgia accounted for 75 touchdowns in high school (with a win-loss record of 54-4) while also playing basketball and tennis. Brent Thompson described him as a “spectacular” player.

Running back C.J. Leggett (5’9″, 217 lbs.) began his college career at Georgia Tech. After an injury, he transferred to Mesa Community College.

The redshirt junior from Suwanee, Georgia is averaging 4.6 yards per carry for the Bears. In recent weeks, his workload has increased, despite not being listed as the starter on the two-deep. He rushed for 109 yards on 19 carries versus ETSU, and added 89 yards on 16 rushes against VMI.

Other MU running backs of note include Tee Mitchell (5’10”, 203 lbs.) and Alex Lakes (5’11”, 221 lbs.). Lakes has had an injury-ravaged career, but the redshirt senior is still Mercer’s all-time leading rusher.

Mitchell was a second-team All-SoCon pick in 2015, but was suspended for the entire 2016 season. He is now back and a definite threat in the backfield.

Two years ago, Mitchell (a former Air Force Prep school student) and Lakes combined for 98 yards and a TD against The Citadel at Johnson Hagood Stadium.

Junior tight end Sam Walker (6’4″, 229 lbs.) was a preseason first-team All-SoCon selection. He did not play versus VMI, but is expected to suit up against The Citadel.

Wide receiver Marquise Irvin (6’2″, 215 lbs.) is a junior from Huntsville, Alabama. He was a second-team all-conference choice in 2016. Irvin had eight catches for 81 yards in last year’s game against the Bulldogs.

Brent Thompson noted that Mercer does a good job of getting Irvin the pigskin, including bubble screens. He can catch the deep ball too.

Avery Ward (6’2″, 191 lbs.) is a senior wideout from Alpharetta, Georgia, who has been a regular for the Bears since his freshman campaign. In 2014, he had 104 yards receiving (including a 65-yard TD catch) against The Citadel. He also led the team in catches versus the Bulldogs the following season.

Chandler Curtis (5’11”, 200 lbs.) is a senior who, when not injured, is a fine wide receiver and a scintillating return man. The problem for Curtis over his college career has been staying healthy.

He was healthy enough to haul in a 61-yard touchdown pass against VMI last week. Curtis has been the primary punt and kick returner for the Bears this season.

Mercer’s projected starting offensive line averages 6’3″, 298 lbs. Right guard Caleb Yates (6’3″, 294 lbs.) is a three-year starter who was a preseason second-team all-league pick.

—

Mercer noseguard Dorian Kithcart (6’0″, 285 lbs.) was described by Brent Thompson as a “big load” who “moves extremely well”. He is a redshirt sophomore from Durham.

Defensive end Isaiah Buehler (6’3″, 262 lbs.) was a preseason second-team All-SoCon selection. This season he has 2 1/2 tackles for loss, along with 2 quarterback hurries.

Eric Jackson (5’8″, 190 lbs.), a redshirt sophomore from Powder Springs, Georgia, is a strong safety who currently leads the team in tackles. He has 39 stops through five games.

Inside linebacker Lee Bennett (6’0″, 221 lbs.) is filling up the stat sheet for the Bears this season. He is second on the team in tackles, and also has two tackles for loss (including a sack), a quarterback hurry, a pass breakup, and a fumble recovery. Bennett had six tackles versus The Citadel in 2016.

LeMarkus Bailey (5’11”, 201 lbs.), an outside linebacker, leads the team in tackles for loss, with 6 1/2. The native of Marietta, Georgia is a redshirt junior. He had one of the three tackles for loss Mercer recorded against The Citadel in last year’s contest.

Placekicker Cole Fisher (6’1″, 190 lbs.) was the preseason first-team all-conference kicker. Fisher made a 50-yard field goal against Samford last year. This year he hasn’t made one of that distance, though he did attempt a 52-yarder versus Jacksonville.

Fisher is also Mercer’s kickoff specialist. While only four of his 29 kickoffs have resulted in touchbacks, opponents are only averaging 12 yards per return against the Bears (which leads the nation, as mentioned earlier).

Mercer’s punter is true freshman Grant Goupil (6’2″, 184 lbs.). Nine of his 22 punts have been downed inside the 20-yard line.

—

Odds and ends:

– The weather forecast for Saturday, per the National Weather Service: a 30% chance of showers, with an expected high of 84 degrees. It will be mostly cloudy, with winds of 6-14 mph.

I have a feeling it is going to be one of those wet and windy days. Field conditions could be tricky for both teams and might favor the defenses.

– Per one source that deals in such matters, The Citadel is a 6-point favorite over Mercer. The over/under is 50.

– Other lines involving SoCon teams: Furman is a 4-point favorite at Chattanooga; Samford is a 35-point favorite at VMI; Wofford is a 3.5-point favorite over Western Carolina; and East Tennessee State is an 8.5-point favorite over Robert Morris;

Around the Palmetto State, Clemson is a 21.5-point favorite over Wake Forest; South Carolina is a 2.5-point home underdog versus Arkansas; South Carolina State is a 16.5-point favorite against Morgan State ; Coastal Carolina is a 1-point underdog at home versus Georgia State; Presbyterian is a 20-point home underdog against St. Francis University (which upset Liberty last week); and Charleston Southern is a 31-point underdog at Indiana.

– Massey Ratings: The Citadel is ranked 42nd in FCS, a drop of 12 spots from last week.

Mercer is ranked 56th in FCS, moving up three places from last week. Overall (all college teams ranked), The Citadel is 176th, while Mercer is 202nd.

Massey projects a final score of The Citadel 26, Mercer 23. The Bulldogs are given a 56% chance of winning.

Other FCS rankings in Massey of note: Wofford is 17th (up one spot), Samford is 24th (up 14 spots), Western Carolina is 29th (a jump of 18 places, the second week in a row the Catamounts have moved up exactly 18 spots), Furman is 35th (up 8 places), Charleston Southern is 38th, Chattanooga is 54th (down 22 spots), East Tennessee State is 76th (down six places), South Carolina State is 87th, Presbyterian is 101st, and VMI is 109th (down three places).

The FCS top five in Massey’s rankings, in order: North Dakota State, James Madison, Youngstown State, South Dakota, and Illinois State.

– Since 1911, The Citadel has a 9-5-1 record for games played on October 7. That includes two wins over Richmond and victories over the Charleston Navy and the Parris Island Marines.

The Bulldogs last played at home on October 7 during the 2004 season. That was a Thursday night game against Benedict in Johnson Hagood Stadium during the year of “half a stadium”, which included temporary stands for the cadets on the West side (shades of this week’s game in reverse).

I was at that contest (won by the Bulldogs 29-0), which is on the short list for “worst atmosphere” of any game every played by The Citadel at JHS. Attendance: 5,127, which I believe is the lowest recorded for any game at Johnson Hagood Stadium since at least 1964.

– Changes to The Citadel’s two-deep for the Mercer game: Gage Russell is now listed as the starter at punter; the backup at that position is Branden Glick. At B-back, Brandon Berry has been added to the depth chart.

– Baseball facts about Mercer that I am required to mention every time the Bulldogs meet the Bears:

Mercer was once coached by George Stallings, who helmed both the football and baseball teams. He was a little better at coaching baseball.

Stallings would later become known as “The Miracle Man” for leading the Boston Braves to the 1914 World Championship. That team was in last place in the National League on the 4th of July but stormed to the pennant (by 10 1/2 games!), then dispatched the favored Philadelphia Athletics in a four-game sweep to win the World Series.

Denton True “Cy” Young served as Mercer’s baseball coach from 1903-05. Mercer won the Georgia state championship for college teams in all three of those years.

After each spring in Macon with the Mercer team, Young returned to pitch for Boston (the team now known as the Red Sox); during that three-year stretch, he compiled a major league record of 72-44 with a 1.96 ERA.

– Among Mercer’s notable graduates are TV personality/attack dog Nancy Grace, missionary/spy John Birch, and current Georgia governor Nathan Deal.

– Mercer disbanded its football program following the 1941 campaign, and didn’t field a team again until 2013. This is the fifth year for the program since the re-institution of the sport in Macon.

– The roster for Mercer (per its game notes) includes 62 players from the State of Georgia. Other states represented on the roster: Florida (15 players), Tennessee (9), Alabama (5), South Carolina (2), and one each from North Carolina and Texas.

The two Palmetto State players on Mercer’s squad are redshirt sophomore defensive lineman Destin Guillen (who attended Berea High School), and freshman quarterback Brett Burnett (a product of Airport High School). However, Mercer has no players from Orangeburg-Wilkinson High School on its roster, an inexplicable oversight for a university actively searching for high-quality gridiron talent.

– The Citadel’s geographic roster breakdown (per the school’s website) is as follows: South Carolina (47 players), Georgia (29), Florida (6), North Carolina (5), Alabama (4), Texas (4), Pennsylvania (3), Tennessee (2), New York (2), and one each from Louisiana, Michigan, Virginia, and West Virginia.

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After the first four to five games of the 2017 season, it appears that the SoCon could be a complete free-for-all. Every team except VMI is capable of winning (and losing) in conference play on any given week.

While that is good from a competitiveness standpoint, I’m afraid it might also mean that a team with a 5-3 conference record will struggle to gain a playoff spot, because it may be hard to for the league squads to separate themselves into easily defined groups (playoff-caliber teams, non-playoff teams, etc.). The league’s non-conference results haven’t been terrible, but they haven’t been that good, either.

For The Citadel, that potential problem is even more acute, because the Bulldogs finish the regular season at Clemson.

That is why each SoCon contest is so important. It is quite possible that to participate in the postseason for a third consecutive season, the Bulldogs can only afford one more league setback.

It is thus even more critical to “hold serve” at home. The one advantage The Citadel has is that it has not played a conference game at Johnson Hagood Stadium thus far.

The Bulldogs have to cash in on their four SoCon home games. Those matchups will be against Mercer, Wofford, Western Carolina, and VMI.

It won’t be easy, and that starts with this week’s matchup. Mercer has been very close to beating the Bulldogs for three straight years.

There is no question that the team from Macon desperately wants to end the close-but-no-cigar run it has had against The Citadel. Those losses have undoubtedly been very hard to take, particularly for head coach Bobby Lamb.

There is also no doubt, however, that the Bulldogs want to put their poor afternoon at Samford in the rear view mirror. The surest way to do that is to win in front of a supportive Parents’ Day crowd.

The stakes, as always, are high. The drive for the playoffs begins anew on Saturday.

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