Schedule analysis: Which teams will The Citadel’s opponents face before playing the Bulldogs? What about afterwards? Sandwich games? Look-aheads?

Posted on August 8, 2025 by Sandlapper Spike

Sometimes, the schedule works in your favor, and sometimes it doesn’t. For this post, I’m going to review the games teams play the week before facing The Citadel…and what they have lined up the following week…and well, a few other games along the way.

Are there “look ahead” games? What about “sandwich” games? Does anyone have a bye week before playing the Bulldogs?

Let’s check it out.

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August 30 — North Dakota State at The Citadel, noon ET

It is the season opener for both teams, so there are obviously no games the week before for either squad. In last year’s finale, The Citadel rolled up 288 yards rushing against ACC champ Clemson, while North Dakota State won its final contest of the season by three points.

The week after facing The Citadel, NDSU is on the road again, heading to Nashville to take on Tennessee State. The Tigers made the playoffs last year, but have since lost head coach Eddie George (who took the Bowling Green job in the spring) and a sizable chunk of the postseason roster. At least one statistics maven has asserted that TSU ranks last in returning production among all FCS teams.

NDSU debuts at home on September 13 against Southeast Missouri State, then has a bye before beginning MVFC play on September 27 with a Homecoming matchup versus South Dakota (which defeated the Bison last year).

September 6 — The Citadel at Samford, 3:30 pm ET

Samford hosts West Georgia on Thursday, August 28, so SU will get two extra days of preparation before facing The Citadel in the league opener for both teams (and has the added benefit of staying at home). Don’t expect Samford to look past West Georgia, however, as the Wolves upset the Birmingham Bulldogs last season. That was actually WGU’s first game as an FCS team.

After playing The Citadel, Samford will travel to Waco for a matchup against Baylor and its highly regarded quarterback, Sawyer Robertson. That will be a very difficult road opener, and is the first of two straight games away from home for SU, which faces Western Carolina in Cullowhee on September 20.

Samford’s final road game of the year, by the way, is also against a Power 4 opponent from the state of Texas, as SU plays at Texas A&M on November 22.

September 13 — The Citadel at Gardner-Webb, 7:00 pm ET

Gardner-Webb has one of the tougher stretches to begin the year in all of FCS.

G-W opens at Western Carolina, which is ranked 18th in the Stats Perform Top 25 Preseason Poll. The Runnin’ Bulldogs then travel to Atlanta to face Georgia Tech, which was picked 4th in the ACC preseason poll.

That is the game Gardner-Webb will play before its matchup with The Citadel, and will be a stern test, though it is worth noting that the Yellow Jackets have a recent history of struggling against FCS opponents nicknamed Bulldogs.

The week after hosting The Citadel, Gardner-Webb has a second FBS game, making the trip up north to tangle with defending MAC champion Ohio.

After a bye week, G-W finally begins conference play on October 4 with a home game versus Charleston Southern. I’m mentioning this mostly because that game has recently been dubbed the “BBQ Bowl“:

The Runnin’ Bulldogs and the Buccaneers will compete annually for bragging rights and the North-South BBQ Trophy, which features a hefty hog adorned with a placard to engrave each year’s winning team and score.

Most importantly, the losing team will be tasked with supplying a barbecue feast to the winning side — North Carolina-style (Western BBQ, of course) or South Carolina-style, as chosen by the victors.

Presumably, the winning team will choose South Carolina-style BBQ, regardless of which squad wins the game.

September 20 — Mercer at The Citadel, 2:00 pm ET (Parents’ Weekend)

Mercer, the preseason SoCon favorite, has a fairly weird start to the season. The Bears will face UC Davis of the Big Sky in Week 0 (on August 23), playing in the FCS Kickoff game at the Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama. Both teams are ranked in the Stats Perform preseason poll (UC Davis is 8th, Mercer 11th). That game will be televised on ESPN at 7:00 pm ET, which won’t be bad at all in terms of exposure.

The following week, Mercer hosts Presbyterian. The Bears then have a bye week before beginning league play with a home game versus Wofford. The following week, Mercer travels to Charleston to face the Bulldogs.

After the game against The Citadel, Mercer stays on the road to play East Tennessee State before returning to Macon to meet Samford. Then, on October 11, Mercer plays Princeton in New Jersey, trying to become the second SoCon team to win at Powers Field. MU has a second bye after that game (getting an extra bye as a result of playing on Week 0).

September 27 — The Citadel at Chattanooga, 6:00 pm ET

Chattanooga has a tough schedule, kind of low-key in a way, but demanding nonetheless. The Mocs open the season at Memphis, and then play another road game at Tennessee Tech. The Golden Eagles won 7 games last year, including their last five, and are ranked #21 in the Stats Perform preseason poll.

After its home opener against Stetson, which should be a bit of a breather (but you never know), Chattanooga has another road game against a team ranked in the preseason poll, Tarleton State (#10). If you are unfamiliar with Tarleton State, don’t be too upset, as the Texans have only been in FCS since 2020. Despite just arriving in Division I, however, TSU’s power brokers already have designs on a spot in FBS.

Chattanooga hosts The Citadel the week following its game at Tarleton State. The Mocs then play at VMI, facing military schools in consecutive weeks, before a bye week that will probably be much-needed.

October 4 — Bye Week for The Citadel

The Citadel is the only SoCon team not playing on October 4.

Without the Bulldogs in the mix, what are your viewing options? It is hard to imagine watching football if The Citadel isn’t involved, so I would recommend making vacation plans of some kind, perhaps an overseas trip.

If you really insist on watching some pigskin, though, here is a list of some of the FBS games which will be played on October 4:

  • Miami (FL) at Florida State
  • Clemson at North Carolina
  • Vanderbilt at Alabama
  • Texas at Florida
  • Wisconsin at Michigan
  • Minnesota at Ohio State
  • Kansas State at Baylor
  • Texas Tech at Houston
  • Air Force at Navy
  • Boise State at Notre Dame

Among the teams also on a bye for the week: South Carolina, Auburn, LSU, Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi, Tennessee, Georgia Tech, Oregon, Southern California, Iowa, Arizona State, and Utah.

So yes, October 4 is a fairly popular bye week.

October 11 — Valdosta State at The Citadel, 2:00 pm ET (Hall of Fame Weekend/Military Appreciation Day)

I’m still not sure why The Citadel decided to schedule a non-conference game against last year’s Division II national runner-up; it just seems to me that if another home game was desired (laudable) and only non-D1 options were on the table (okay, whatever), settling on a mid-season game against a program as historically successful as the Blazers wasn’t really the way to go.

That was under the previous athletics administration, to be sure.

At any rate, Valdosta State (which has a new coach and a revamped roster) will face The Citadel after playing two straight home games. Following a bye week, VSU hosts UNC Pembroke on September 27, and then Lenoir-Rhyne the week before playing the Bulldogs. The Blazers shouldn’t be looking past either of those squads, particularly Lenoir-Rhyne, which won 10 games last season and made it to the second round of the D-2 playoffs.

That said, neither of those games is a conference matchup, as VSU hardly has any conference matchups. Due to a mass exodus of schools after last season, the Gulf South Conference only has four football-playing members for the 2025 campaign. As a result, Valdosta State won’t play a league contest until November 1 against West Alabama — its first of just three conference games.

Following its game against The Citadel, VSU will have another bye week before hosting North Greenville for Homecoming, its seventh (and final) non-conference matchup of the season.

October 18 — Western Carolina at The Citadel, 2:00 pm ET

I mentioned earlier that Western Carolina opens its season by hosting Gardner-Webb. The next week, WCU plays at Wake Forest in one of the more interesting FCS-over-FBS possibilities on the September slate.

The Catamounts also have non-conference games in September against Elon (at home) and Campbell (on the road).

Prior to its matchup at The Citadel, Western Carolina hosts Furman. In fact, WCU will play all three South Carolina-based SoCon schools in consecutive weeks, as the Catamounts are at Wofford the week before facing the Paladins.

Following the game versus the Bulldogs, WCU has a bye week, and then finishes the regular-season campaign with contests against Chattanooga, Mercer, East Tennessee State, and VMI (the first and last of those being road games).

October 25 — The Citadel at Furman, 2:00 pm ET

This matchup will be Furman’s Homecoming game, though FU will still have two home contests remaining after the contest. The Paladins are at Wofford the week before facing The Citadel, and host Mercer the week afterwards.

Furman then travels to Chattanooga before playing its final game at Paladin Stadium, this time against VMI. The Paladins finish the regular season at Clemson.

Furman’s bye week this year is rather early (September 20), so it will play nine straight weeks to close the campaign — eight consecutive league contests before the finale in Death Valley.

The Paladins have three non-conference games besides the Clemson matchup, and they are also Furman’s first three contests of the season. FU has home games versus William & Mary and Presbyterian and a road trip to play Campbell.

November 1 — VMI at The Citadel, 2:00 pm ET (Military Classic of the South)

The Keydets open the season with all four of their non-conference games, three of which are on the road (Navy, Bucknell, and Richmond). VMI’s one non-league home contest is a matchup with Ferrum (a D2 school). It then enjoys a bye week on September 27 before beginning SoCon action.

VMI’s game against The Citadel is the second of two straight road contests for the Keydets. The week before playing the Bulldogs, VMI travels to Mercer.

The following week is Military Appreciation Day in Lexington, Virginia, and the Keydets are hosting Wofford. They will then play at Furman, another instance of a team playing three consecutive matchups against the SoCon’s Palmetto State trio.

VMI will then conclude regular-season play with a home game versus Western Carolina.

November 8 — The Citadel at Mississippi, 1:00 pm ET

As mentioned above, Mississippi has a bye week on October 4, just like The Citadel.

Mississippi’s other three non-conference games are against Georgia State (the season opener), Tulane, and Washington State. All of those are also in Oxford. Mississippi thus has eight home games this season, including three of its last four regular-season contests.

Oh, but that closing stretch. The Citadel is a “sandwich” game for the Rebels, with Mississippi hosting South Carolina the week before and Florida the week afterwards. Following the game against the Gators, the Rebels have another bye week before facing Mississippi State in Starkville in the Egg Bowl.

Prior to that home game versus the Gamecocks, Mississippi has two road games — at Georgia and at Oklahoma.

November 15 — Wofford at The Citadel, 2:00 pm ET (Homecoming)

Wofford opens the season in Orangeburg against South Carolina State, and then hosts Richmond. After beginning SoCon play the following week at Mercer, the Terriers make the journey to Blacksburg to face Virginia Tech (the Mike Young Invitational).

All of Wofford’s games after its September 27 bye week are league affairs except one, an October 11 matchup against Michael Vick’s Norfolk State squad (kind of a Virginia Tech theme here). That game is Homecoming for the Terriers.

Before facing The Citadel, Wofford travels to VMI, so the Terriers get the military schools back-to-back. After playing the Bulldogs, Wofford finishes the regular season with a home game versus Chattanooga.

November 22 — The Citadel at East Tennessee State, 1:00 pm ET

The Buccaneers start the season with four non-conference games, hosting Murray State in the opener before making the trek to Knoxville to do battle with Tennessee. ETSU then plays at West Georgia before a home game versus Elon.

East Tennessee State has a late bye week, not taking a break until November 1; the week before, it has a Homecoming game versus Wofford.

ETSU then finishes the regular season with two road games against Samford and Western Carolina before hosting The Citadel.

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There you have it. None of The Citadel’s opponents has a bye week before playing The Citadel, though Samford does have those aforementioned two extra days of prep because its opener is on a Thursday.

On the other side of the equation, the Bulldogs’ one “rest” advantage is against a non-conference opponent, so none of its SoCon competitors are affected.

Two of The Citadel’s opponents have a bye week after playing the Bulldogs — Valdosta State and Western Carolina.

The Citadel has two home games against teams that play a road game before facing the Bulldogs at Johnson Hagood Stadium — VMI and Wofford.

The Bulldogs face two squads that play at home before also hosting The Citadel — Samford and Mississippi.

Basically, there are no real scheduling breaks in either direction. It is just a very tough slate.

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Football attendance review: Johnson Hagood Stadium, the SoCon, and FCS in general

Posted on July 15, 2025 by Sandlapper Spike

This post is primarily about home attendance at The Citadel, which is a subject I’ve written about many, many times over the years. My first post on the subject was in 2009. What can I say, I’m old.

I used to write about attendance every single year, but then 2020 happened and, well…

The first part of this post is a bit of a cut-and-paste job from previous writeups on this topic, along with new and updated information. I’ve updated the original spreadsheet, and also included some new spreadsheets for the SoCon, along with a brief review of FCS as a whole.

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Here is a spreadsheet that includes attendance information for The Citadel at Johnson Hagood Stadium:

Annual attendance at Johnson Hagood Stadium, 1964-2024

The spreadsheet tracks attendance for The Citadel’s home football games and has now been updated to include games through the 2024 season. It lists year-by-year totals and average game attendance, and the win/loss record for the Bulldogs in each season. There is also a category ranking the years by average attendance.

I have also included home win/loss records for each season.

The 2020 season includes the four games played in the fall of 2020 (one of which was at home) and the eight contests played in the spring of 2021 (four of which took place at JHS). The games referenced on the spreadsheet for the 2021 campaign are only those that were played in the fall (technically some of them took place in late summer, but you know what I mean).

Other columns refer to the program’s winning percentage over a two-year, three-year, five-year, and ten-year period, with the “current” season being the final year in each category. For example, the three-year winning percentage for 1970 (54.84%) is made up of the 1968, 1969, and 1970 seasons.

I include those categories mainly to see what impact, if any, constant winning (or losing) has had on long-term attendance trends.

I have also compared average attendance for the first two games of a season to the last two contests of the same campaign, going back to the 2009 season. There are inherent sample-size issues when making such a comparison (weather, stadium construction [or deconstruction], opponent fan base, etc.), but it doesn’t hurt to see how things have shaken out. The fall 2020/spring 2021 sort-of-season is not included below, for obvious reasons.

  • 2009 [4-7 overall record]; First two home games, average attendance of 13,636; final two home games, average attendance of 11,736 (including Homecoming)
  • 2010 [3-8 overall record]; First two home games, average attendance of 10,904; final two home games, average attendance of 11,805 (including Homecoming)
  • 2011 [4-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 12,756; final two home games, average attendance of 12,387 (including Homecoming)
  • 2012 [7-4 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 13,281; final two home games, average attendance of 13,715 (including Homecoming)
  • 2013 [5-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 13,370; final two home games, average attendance of 12,948 (including Homecoming)
  • 2014 [5-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 9,700; final two home games, average attendance of 9,563 (including Homecoming)
  • 2015 [9-4 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 8,356; final two home games, average attendance of 12,465 (including Homecoming)
  • 2016 [10-2 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 13,299; final two regular-season home games, average attendance of 13,996 (including Homecoming); playoff game attendance of 10,336
  • 2017 [5-6 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 8,718; final two home games, average attendance of 9,496 (including Homecoming)
  • 2018 [5-6 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 9,559; final two home games, average attendance of 9,511 (including Homecoming and a rescheduled game)
  • 2019 [6-6 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 8,517; final two home games, average attendance of 9,141 (including Homecoming)
  • 2021 [4-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 9,503; final two home games, average attendance of 10,189 (including Homecoming)
  • 2022 [4-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 10,339 (including Parents’ Day); final two home games, average attendance of 10,022 (including Homecoming and a game against a non-NCAA/NAIA opponent)
  • 2023 [0-11 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 10,882 (including Parents’ Day); final two home games, average attendance of 11,016 (including Homecoming)
  • 2024: [5-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 9,723; final two home games, average attendance of 10,745 (including Homecoming)

Since 1964, the Bulldogs’ record at Johnson Hagood Stadium is 200-139 (59.0%). The average home attendance over that time period is 13,492. However, there has not been a season in which home attendance averaged more than 13,492 since 2012.

The current stadium capacity is less than 12,000, due to the demolition of the East stands in the spring of 2017. Thus, The Citadel will not see an increase in attendance to the levels of the early part of this century anytime in the near future (and if Charleston’s Board of Architectural Review, heavily influenced by NIMBY-ism, continues to hold up the process, the school might not get to replace the East stands until the sun turns red).

The higher attendance figures for the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s are even further out of sight.

Last year’s average home attendance of 10,225 ranked 52nd out of the 61 seasons included in this survey. The five lowest season averages in attendance have all occurred since 2014.

As always, I need to point out that the cutoff for accuracy in attendance numbers means years like 1959 (eight wins), 1960 (Tangerine Bowl victory), and 1961 (SoCon title) cannot be included for comparison in this review, not to mention any of the other years from 1948, when the most recent iteration of Johnson Hagood Stadium opened, through the 1963 season. I do not have a high degree of confidence in any “public” season attendance figures prior to 1964. ( A few skeptics might suggest I shouldn’t have a large amount of confidence in some of the numbers post-1964, either.)

It is generally accepted that the largest home attendance for The Citadel at any pre-1964 contest was for the Homecoming game against Clemson in 1948, when an estimated 16,000 fans were present for the dedication of the “new” Johnson Hagood Stadium. It is likely that more than twenty years passed before the stadium had a game attendance higher than that (when 19,276 fans attended the home opener in 1969, a 14-10 victory for Red Parker’s Bulldogs over Arkansas State).

Here are the top average attendance marks over two-year, three-year, five-year, and ten-year periods:

  • Two years: 1975-76 (18,250). Rest of the top five: 1991-92, 1979-80, 1990-91, 1989-90
  • Three years: 1990-92 (17,457). Rest of the top five: 1989-91, 1978-80, 1991-93, 1975-77
  • Five years: 1988-92 (17,126). Rest of the top five: 1989-93, 1975-79, 1976-80, 1990-94
  • Ten years: 1975-84 (16,250). Rest of the top five: 1983-92, 1974-83, 1976-85, 1984-93

Average attendance by decade:

  • 1964-69: 11,998
  • 1970-79: 15,053
  • 1980-89: 15,398
  • 1990-99: 14,955
  • 2000-09: 13,850
  • 2010-19: 11,179
  • 2020-24: 8,910

The 2020-24 period includes the 2020-21 home games. If those are discounted (as they probably should be for this exercise), the average attendance so far this decade is 10,254.

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I’ll throw in this spreadsheet as well, which charts Homecoming games at The Citadel since the first such contest in 1924. It includes attendance for all but three of those games (and every game since 1960), so it is somewhat applicable for this post.

Since 1960, The Citadel has had at least 10,000 fans in attendance for Homecoming for every game except one (8,500 for a matchup against Furman in 1965). The record for Homecoming attendance is 21,811, set in 1992 when the Bulldogs played VMI.

Homecoming at The Citadel, 1924-2024

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Now let’s take a look at the SoCon.

Here is a spreadsheet that lists the attendance numbers for all SoCon games (conference matchups only) in 2024:

2024 SoCon attendance (league games only)

(The formatting might not be ideal, but it gets the job done; at least, I hope it does.)

Last season, Chattanooga was the top overall road draw in league play. In four road games, the Mocs played before crowds averaging 10,293. Those numbers were buoyed by the location of those four contests, with the host schools being The Citadel, Furman, ETSU, and Western Carolina. Those four ranked 1-2-4-5 in home attendance for conference games.

Conversely, Mercer ranked last as a road draw, with an average of 4,171.5 fans, thanks almost entirely to playing away from home against Chattanooga, VMI, Samford, and Wofford, the four schools that made up the bottom half of the league in conference home attendance (with the Terriers bringing up the rear with an average of 3,589 fans per league matchup).

In 2022, Chattanooga played the same four teams on the road, and was the league’s road draw leader. That same year, Mercer was last as a road draw, playing the same four opponents as it did last season. In other words, the numbers probably say more about the teams they played than the Mocs and Bears.

There are a couple of things to note for 2024. Two games are not part of the home league attendance totals, due to the impact of Hurricane Helene. Furman’s home game against Samford was postponed and ultimately canceled, while Western Carolina’s home matchup versus Wofford was played before no fans (due to ongoing rescue and recovery efforts in that region).

The highest-attended league game in 2024 was Western Carolina’s home finale against VMI, with 13,022 spectators.

The lowest-attended league game (not counting the Wofford-WCU matchup referenced earlier) was, by far, Wofford’s home game versus Mercer on September 28, with an announced attendance of 1,219. Both teams were ranked at the time, and the box score listed the weather as “sunny”.

[Edit: a comment for this post alerted me to the fact that Mercer-Wofford was yet another game affected by Hurricane Helene. The surrounding area was mostly without power, traffic lights were down, and there were long lines for gasoline as well. We’ll give the Wofford community a mulligan for that one.]

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The attendance for some of these games, particular those at Wofford, inspired me to compile another chart, this one listing attendance for The Citadel’s road matchups against current SoCon schools. I decided to start with the 1997 season, which was Wofford’s first as a league member (and was also the first year Chattanooga played in Finley Stadium).

Road attendance in The Citadel’s games against current SoCon schools, 1997-2024

The above spreadsheet doesn’t feature all of the Bulldogs’ league road games over that time period, of course, as it doesn’t include former SoCon members Appalachian State, Elon, Georgia Southern, and Marshall. It also lists games at VMI when that school was not in the conference.

Some of these totals have been fairly consistent over time (the games at VMI, for example), but there has been variance over the years, and there has also been a decline in attendance in some places. The last two games the Bulldogs have played against Wofford have been noteworthy in that regard.

I’m not sure what to make of that, particularly when The Citadel has been the best “traveling” fan base in the SoCon over the last decade and a half (a subject I wrote about a few years ago). How much of that has to do with The Citadel? What about the home support?

Perhaps it just comes down to philosophical changes in how to count attendance by certain school administrations. The long-term effect of COVID-19 probably needs to be considered, as well, at least when it comes to how people now allocate leisure time. I have to wonder if there is a difference between FBS and FCS in that respect — but to be honest, I don’t really have any idea.

In 2016, the SoCon average attendance (all home games, league and out-of-conference) was 8,386. Last season, it was 8,169. That isn’t a big difference, so alarm bells shouldn’t be going off around the league. It is something worth monitoring, though.

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Finally, a brief look at FCS attendance. I wrote a lot on this subject two years ago. I’m not going over all that ground again, but I would like to make a few observations about the 2024 campaign from an attendance perspective.

Here is a spreadsheet that includes FCS home attendance for 2024:

FCS home attendance 2024

There are various columns on that spreadsheet besides the breakdown of 2024 attendance. I also included a column for 2023 average attendance, the average attendance for the 2012-2022 period (excluding fall 2020/spring 2021, and only listing the schools that were continuously in the subdivision during that time frame), and columns comparing the differential between attendance for 2012-2022 and the last two seasons.

Jackson State and Montana were 1-2 in attendance in 2024. Those two schools have occupied the top two places for most of the last decade.

The list includes two schools no longer in FCS as of 2025 (Delaware and Missouri State) and several schools that are recent entrants in the subdivision.

There were 25 FCS schools that averaged over 10,000 in home attendance last season. Of those, according to the participation release from the College Sports Commission, all opted in to the House settlement except for Holy Cross, Harvard, The Citadel, Idaho, and UC Davis.

On the other hand, 15 FCS schools averaged fewer than 2,500 fans per home game, with subdivision debutant Mercyhurst bringing up the rear (1,183 per game in four home contests).

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Okay, I think that is enough about attendance for now. Soon, there will be 2025 attendance figures to discuss…

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Reviewing Samford-The Citadel: a very pleasant day in Charleston

Posted on October 27, 2024 by Sandlapper Spike

Advanced stats from an enjoyable afternoon at Johnson Hagood Stadium:

Samford The Citadel
Starting Field Position Average 22.33 37.15
Offensive Success Rate 48.5% 42.9%
Big plays (20+ yards) 0 4
Finishing drives inside 40 (average points) 2.2 4.0
Turnovers 3 0
Expected turnovers 1.66 0.72
Possessions 12 13
Points per possession 0.92 2.15
Offensive Plays 68 63
Offensive rush play % 44.12% 68.25%
Yards/rush (sack-adjusted) 3.73 4.07
Yards/pass attempt (sack-adjusted) 5.39 6.35
Yards/play 4.78 4.79
3rd down conversions 33.3% (4/12) 41.2% (7/17)
4th down conversions 0 of 2 1 of 1
Red Zone TD% 50.0% 80.0%
Net punting 31.25 50.00
Time of possession 28:03 31:57
TOP/offensive play 24.39 seconds 29.95 seconds
Penalties 5 for 34 yards 5 for 47 yards
1st down passing 16/22, 134 yards, 2 INT 3/5, 44 yards
3rd and long passing 5/6, 2 sacks, 40 net yards 3/6, 54 yards
4th down passing 0/0 0/0
1st down yards/play 5.82 6.00
3rd down average yards to go 7.92 4.76
Defensive 3-and-outs+ 4 (of 13) 5 (of 12)

Housekeeping regarding the above:

  • The Citadel’s final possession of the second half and Samford’s final possession of the first half (both one-play kneel-downs) are not included in any of the categories, except for time of possession and TOP/offensive play.
  • It should be noted that absent Samford’s final drive of the game, when The Citadel appeared to be playing a very loose variation of “prevent defense”, SU would have averaged an offensive success rate of 42.6%, a yards/play rate of 4.10, and a first down yards/play rate of 5.0 (just to list three category examples).

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Random observations:

– The quickest way to explain The Citadel’s overall dominance on Saturday is probably field position. Samford started just one drive beyond its own 30-yard line, and had five drives start at its own 20 or further back (two inside the 10-yard line). Conversely, The Citadel had five drives start in SU territory.

The Citadel’s four touchdown drives all started on Samford’s side of the field. The average starting field position for the Cadets on those TD marches was the SU 33 (technically the 32.5 yard line).

Samford punted four times during the game. Two of those punts came with the line of scrimmage at SU’s 3-yard line and 1-yard line. The Citadel’s defense did a great job of maintaining a field position edge in those situations (both of those possessions were three-and-outs).

The Citadel also intercepted two passes (on the first Samford offensive play of each half), both of which resulted in great field position for the home team.

– The other factor in the tilting of the field, of course, was The Citadel’s punt unit. James Platte had an incredible day booting the ball, with a net punting average of 50.0 on five punts. Samford’s average field position following those punts was its own 14.8 yard line.

For the afternoon, The Citadel’s advantage in net punting was 18.75 yards, an enormous edge.

I cannot remember a more memorable punting exhibition by a Bulldog at Johnson Hagood Stadium. Platte’s booming kicks drew audible ‘oohs’ and ‘aahs’ from the admiring crowd, as the punts were aesthetically pleasing as well as effective — tight spirals launched into the Charleston sky.

– It was not an easy day for two of the three placekickers who saw action. Samford was 1 for 2 on field goal tries, missing a 21-yarder early in the 4th quarter that would have brought SU within one score.

Meanwhile, The Citadel missed all three of its field goal attempts. I suspect that Maurice Drayton would take responsibility for the misfire on the first try, though, a 52-yarder that came after the coach intentionally took a delay-of-game penalty in an effort to draw Samford offside. It wasn’t a great idea, and looked worse when the kick fell short by about two yards.

– I mentioned three placekickers, though. Who was the third placekicker, you ask?

Well, he was a bagpiper named Richard…

The regimental band performed at halftime, putting on a nice show. One of the bagpipers was then chosen to be the contestant for the fan placekicking contest that usually takes place at the end of the third quarter.

Richard stepped up to the challenge. Was he wearing a kilt and a pouch as he kicked? Of course. He also wore the white boot that is part of The Citadel’s traditional bagpiper uniform on his left foot, and what appeared to be a cleat on his right (which he used to kick).

A breeze was beginning to swirl inside the stadium, which might explain why his first kick ricocheted off the left post. However, he had two tries from the initial distance to convert the field goal, and his second effort sailed through the uprights.

That led to the big moment, a 30-yard one-time attempt to win free pizza for a year. The pressure was on, but Richard’s kick was a no-doubter, hammered straight and true, flying above the crossbar with room to spare.

– While Drayton might have erred on the sequence leading to The Citadel’s first field goal attempt, the coach correctly challenged a spot late in the first half, a critical move that resulted in the Bulldogs picking up a key first down and maintaining possession. It was important at that time to deny Samford a chance to score again before the half ended.

The missed spot was by almost two full yards. Everyone in the stands saw that The Citadel had picked up the first down (a 10-yard pass from Johnathan Bennett to Dervon Pesnell, a nice play on both ends). The officials on the field had other ideas, however.

I was a little worried the replay review booth would not overrule the spot, as The Citadel has not had much luck with reviews this season, but justice prevailed.

It wasn’t the only spotting error of the game, just the most obvious. This has been an ongoing problem for SoCon officials over the years.

– Going for the jugular alert: with 3:58 to play, The Citadel took possession at Samford’s 44-yard line after the defense held on a fourth down attempt (Cale Williams with a rather emphatic stop). With a 21-3 lead, I expected to see a lot of runs up the middle to drain clock (or force Samford to use its remaining timeouts).

Naturally, the first play from scrimmage was a 27-yard pass play from Bennett to Pesnell (a great catch by Pesnell along the sideline).

That play call seemed to come out of left field, and I’m not sure it was the right thing to do in terms of the game state, but you know what? Sometimes you have to break tendencies, even when you’re in a position of strength. More power to the offensive staff. (And the bottom line is that it worked.)

From there, the Bulldogs ran the ball on six consecutive plays, with Bennett eventually scoring.

– I occasionally got concerned with the constant defensive rotations. Sometimes, multiple Bulldogs would race onto and off the field on plays for which Samford did not substitute. On those plays, I was worried The Citadel would not be ready at the snap — but that never happened.

“Samford has a high-powered offense, and we talked a lot about that,” said Citadel defensive lineman Chris Iverson, who finished with five tackles, including one for loss and a sack. “Samford’s tempo has been a problem for a lot of people, so we put a lot of emphasis on lining up quickly and communicating.”

The constant changing of personnel was obviously effective. On the afternoon, 23 different players for The Citadel registered at least one tackle (including placekicker Ben Barnes). Cale Williams led with 8 stops, while Je’Mazin Roberts had 7 and a forced fumble. DaVonyae Pettis had two of the Bulldogs’ eight tackles for loss (including a sack).

– Against Mercer last week, Samford’s offense had plays of 38, 77, 41, 35, 24, and 23 yards.

On Saturday, Samford’s longest offensive play from scrimmage was 19 yards.

– For a guy with a decent record against The Citadel, Chris Hatcher has certainly had a few games to forget in Charleston. This was one of them.

– Announced attendance: 8,977. I was a little concerned when I arrived on Saturday, as the parking lots were not exactly full. However, a decent-sized crowd eventually made its way inside the stadium.

There were very few Samford fans at the game. That is a long trip from Birmingham, though.

– It is one thing for a crowd to rush the field after a win. It is perhaps a bit unusual, however, for a team to rush the crowd (in this case, the student section) after a win, which the Bulldogs did following the Alma Mater.

I liked that a lot. Let’s see more of it, please.

– After the game, seniors and freshmen were awarded overnights. Juniors and sophomores had to be back on campus by 0100 hours.

It was a decidedly unusual combination of overnights/no overnights. The PA announcer informed the crowd that the freshmen had been granted overnights with “the authorization of the chairman of the Board of Visitors, Greg Delancey.”

(He meant Greg Delleney.)

– The Citadel is now 9-6-1 all-time for games played on October 26, including a 7-2-1 record at home on that date.

Saturday’s win was the biggest for The Citadel on October 26 since a 25-0 shutout of Oglethorpe in 1940, a game played at the “original” Johnson Hagood Stadium.

That was also a contest featuring strong defense and special teams play, as the Bulldogs held the Stormy Petrels to just 38 yards of total offense (and 0-for-6 passing). The Citadel’s Hank Foster returned a punt for a touchdown that day, while Ben Suitt blocked an Oglethorpe punt, setting up his own TD four plays later (the second of two TDs for Suitt).

The other touchdown for the Bulldogs was scored by Joe Bolduc. The Citadel missed on three of its four PAT attempts; perhaps placekicking is not meant to be on October 26, unless you are wearing a kilt.

—

The Bulldogs now get a much-needed bye week before finishing the season with three games. The first of those will be The Citadel’s last game of the season at Johnson Hagood Stadium, a Homecoming affair against Chattanooga. The final two contests will be road trips to the Upstate to face Wofford and Clemson.

I’m looking forward to Homecoming, which is always a fun time on campus. Chattanooga will be a tough opponent, but The Citadel should enter that matchup with a good deal of newfound confidence, particularly on defense.

It is good to see on-field progress being made. It is even better when that progress is reflected in victories.

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Bulldogs vs. Bulldogs, with some FCS stats thrown in

Posted on October 25, 2024 by Sandlapper Spike

The Citadel vs. Samford, to be played at historic Johnson Hagood Stadium (not including the East stands), with kickoff at 2:00 pm ET on October 26, 2024.

The game will be streamed on ESPN+. Dave Weinstein will handle play-by-play, while Vad Lee supplies the analysis. Matison Little is the sideline reporter. 

The contest can be heard on radio on 102.1-FM in Charleston [audio link]. Brian Giffin calls the game alongside analyst Lee Glaze.

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The Citadel game notes

Samford game notes

SoCon weekly release

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I really don’t have a lot to say about this matchup (but hey, I’m still posting about it). Samford just blitzed previously undefeated Mercer 55-35, and has beaten The Citadel five consecutive times on the gridiron, including 37-7 last year and 38-3 the last time the two teams met in Charleston.

At his weekly press conference, Maurice Drayton was asked how his squad matched up with SU. His response: “The truth of the matter is we don’t match up well.”

You can’t say he isn’t honest.

—

Let’s take a look at some statistical comparisons. Keep in mind that Samford has played two fewer games than The Citadel, and one of those was against an SEC opponent (Florida).

The Citadel’s offense vs. Samford’s defense

  • TC averages 22.4 points per game; SU allows 26.5
  • TC averages 4.86 yards per play; SU allows 5.53 
  • TC rushes on 60.8% of its offensive plays; SU faces a rush attempt 51.8% of the time
  • TC averages 4.15 yards per rush (sack-adjusted); SU allows 3.88
  • TC averages 5.96 yards per pass attempt (sack-adjusted); SU allows 7.31
  • TC gives up a sack on 6.9% of its drop-backs; SU sack rate of 8.1%
  • TC converts 36.52% of its 3rd-down attempts; SU allows 35.48%
  • TC has converted 9 of 17 4th-down attempts (52.94%); SU has allowed 7 of 11 (63.64%)
  • TC averages 4.11 estimated points per Red Zone trip; SU allows 4.86
  • TC averages 1.38 turnovers per game; SU has forced 1.83 turnovers per contest

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Samford’s offense vs. The Citadel’s defense 

  • SU averages 26.3 points per game; TC allows 21.6
  • SU averages 4.99 yards per play; TC allows 5.47
  • SU rushes on 46.2% of its offensive plays; TC faces a rush attempt 52.9% of the time
  • SU averages 3.45 yards per rush (sack-adjusted); TC allows 4.69
  • SU averages 6.32 yards per pass attempt (sack-adjusted); TC allows 6.34
  • SU gives up a sack on 7.7% of its drop-backs; TC defensive sack rate of 8.7%
  • SU converts 29.76% of its 3rd-down attempts; TC allows 32.67%
  • SU has converted on 6 of 7 4th-down attempts (85.71%); TC has allowed 9 of 17 (52.94%)
  • SU averages 4.58 estimated points per Red Zone trip; TC allows 4.99
  • SU averages 1.17 turnovers per game; TC has forced 1.13 turnovers per contest

—

(Yes, The Citadel’s offense has converted 9 of 17 4th-down tries and its defense has allowed conversions on 9 of 17 4th-down attempts. I double-checked that one.)

—

Other stats of note

  • TC: 4.5 penalties per game (37.9 yards); SU: 3.3 penalties per game (29.9 yards)
  • TC: 40.88 net punting average; SU: 34.46 net punting average
  • TC: -0.25 turnover margin per game; SU: 0.67 turnover margin per game
  • TC: 30:22 time of possession average; SU: 29:42 TOP average
  • TC: total season estimated point differential for RZ trips of -15; SU has a total season EPD of 8

(Total Estimated Point Differential and its even wackier cousin, Attempts-Estimated Point Comparison, are “experimental” statistics that I’ve just created in an effort to compare point totals on red zone possessions. Feel free to completely disregard them.)

—

Under Chris Hatcher, Samford has been an occasionally puzzling outfit, capable of big wins and strange losses, sometimes looking both fantastic and terrible in the same game. 

That has worked in The Citadel’s favor at times. Two of the more memorable wins at JHS in recent years at were comeback victories over Samford.

In 2016 the Cadets came back from 10 down with less than 5 minutes to play to prevail in overtime, clinching the SoCon title in the process, while two years later The Citadel pulled off the biggest comeback victory in the history of Johnson Hagood Stadium, roaring back from 21 points down to win 42-27. I still remember the money falling out of the sky.

That 2018 game remains the Charleston Bulldogs’ last win in the series.

This season, Samford has continued to perplex, opening the year by losing to Division I debutant West Georgia. After an expected loss to Florida the following week, SU outlasted Alabama State 12-7 in its home opener. 

Samford’s game at Furman was postponed due to Hurricane Helene, which resulted in a three-week break between games. That might have been just what SU needed, because the last three games have been solid efforts — a 27-3 win over VMI, a tough 31-28 loss at East Tennessee State, and the aforementioned defeat of Mercer last Saturday, a contest Samford led 42-7 at halftime.

Did Samford give up 3 straight TDs to the Bears to make it a two-score game early in the fourth quarter? Yes, it did. Did Samford then score two defensive touchdowns to wrap things up? Yes, it did.

SU had 17 (!) offensive possessions in the game. Average length of drive by time: 1:41, with only one possession taking longer than 2:20. That is classic Chris Hatcher offensive football.

—

Per one source that deals in such matters, Samford is an 8½-point favorite at The Citadel on Saturday. The over/under is 51½. The moneyline is The Citadel +250, Samford -300.

According to Bill Connelly’s SP+ system, Samford is projected to win the game by a score of 30.0-17.8. The Massey Ratings have SU winning 31-20, with The Citadel given a 21% chance of pulling the upset.

Other SoCon games shake out like this, as the ratings systems see it (Furman is off this week):

  • Western Carolina-Mercer: MU 30-24 (Massey); MU 33.7-18.2 (SP+)
  • VMI-Chattanooga: UTC 35-7 (Massey); UTC 37.8-5.8 (SP+)
  • East Tennessee State-Wofford: ETSU 26-21 (Massey); ETSU 27.0-18.2 (SP+)

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The comparative stats posted above for the matchup on Saturday mostly came via a spreadsheet I put together for all of FCS. If you’re interested in a lot of numbers, this is the link to the spreadsheet:

FCS stats through October 20, 2024

Here is how The Citadel is ranked among all 129 FCS teams entering Saturday’s play in various statistical categories:

Offense

  • Yards per play — 103rd [VMI ranks last in this category]
  • Yards per rush (sack-adjusted) — 106th [South Dakota State leads; ETSU is 11th]
  • Yards per pass attempt (sack-adjusted) — 83rd [VMI ranks last in this category]
  • Points per game — 86th [Monmouth leads; VMI ranks last in this category as well]
  • 3rd-down conversion rate — 71st [five SoCon teams in bottom 20]
  • Estimated points per Red Zone trip — 109th [Butler leads; no SoCon team in top 30]

Defense

  • Yards allowed per play — 54th [Dayton leads, Mercer is 3rd; Youngstown State is last, a far cry from its glory days]
  • Yards allowed per rush (sack-adjusted) — 45th [Mercer leads this category by almost two-thirds of a yard; ETSU is 7th and Samford is 9th]
  • Yards allowed per pass attempt (sack-adjusted) — 73rd [the top 4 in this category are all Pioneer League teams]
  • Points allowed per game — 21st [Mercer is still 5th despite last week’s debacle at Samford]
  • 3rd-down conversion rate allowed — 21st [Mercer leads]
  • Estimated points allowed per Red Zone trip — 65th [Incarnate Word leads; Mercer is 3rd, Wofford 9th, WCU 11th, and Furman 17th]

Miscellaneous

  • Net punting — 14th [Mercer tops in the SoCon at 7th; Charleston Southern is 6th]
  • Turnover margin per game — 83rd [Nicholls State leads; Mercer and Chattanooga are both in the top 10]
  • Fewest penalties per game — 13th [Samford is 5th; Harvard leads this category]
  • Time of possession — 46th [Samford is 72nd, which is higher than normal for SU]

—

It should be a sunny day on Saturday, with a projected high in Charleston of 83 degrees. It is also a bye week for both Clemson and South Carolina. Heck, Coastal Carolina is off this week, too. Maybe that will juice attendance a little bit at Johnson Hagood Stadium. 

The contest will be a tough challenge for The Citadel. Samford is coming off what is arguably the most impressive performance by a SoCon team this season, and this is an opportunity for the Birmingham Bulldogs to cap an excellent month of football. A league title for SU remains a possibility.

That said, I think The Citadel has a chance in this game. We shall see. 

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College Football Week 10, 2021: Friday notes and observations

Posted on November 5, 2021 by Sandlapper Spike

– From Tuesday, my weekly statistical review/preview (including The Citadel, Samford, and FCS in general)

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– Keys for The Citadel, from The Post and Courier

– Game notes for The Citadel

– Game notes for Samford

– SoCon weekly release

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Broadcast information

The Citadel at Samford, to be played on Bobby Bowden Field at Seibert Stadium in Birmingham, Alabama, with kickoff at 3:00 pm ET on November 6, 2021.

The game will be streamed on ESPN+. Play-by-play will be handled by Curt Bloom, while Damian Mitchell supplies the analysis. Graham Doty is the sideline reporter.

The contest can be heard on radio via The Citadel Sports Network. WQNT-1450 AM [audio link], originating in Charleston, will be the flagship station. Other stations carrying the game include WQXL in Columbia (100.7 FM/1470 AM) and WDXY in Sumter (105.9 FM/1240 AM).

Luke Mauro (the “Voice of the Bulldogs”) calls the action alongside analyst Lee Glaze. 

– “Live Stats” for the game

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Roster review

– Of the 112 players on The Citadel’s online roster, 61 are from South Carolina. Other states represented: Georgia (18 players), Florida (11), North Carolina (9), Virginia (4), Alabama (2), Texas (2), and one each from New York, Oklahoma, Ohio, and Tennessee.

Tight end Hayden Williamson played his high school football in Okinawa, Japan.

– Samford has 119 players on its online roster. Of those, 42 are from the state of Alabama. Other states with players on SU’s squad: Georgia (29), Tennessee (14), Florida (10), Mississippi (8), North Carolina (2), Arkansas (2), Kentucky (2), Louisiana (2), and one each from California, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, South Carolina, Texas, and Virginia.

The one Palmetto State product on Samford’s team is freshman reserve placekicker/punter Henry Bishop, who attended Spartanburg High School.

The Birmingham Bulldogs’ punter, three-year regular Bradley Porcellato, is from Melbourne, Australia.

– SU has 15 players who transferred in from four-year schools and four others who arrived from junior colleges. Three of the university transfers are from UAB. The others are from Dartmouth, Jackson State, Jacksonville State, Morehead State, Murray State, North Carolina State, North Texas, Southern Mississippi, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, William Jewell College, and the University of Sioux Falls.

– Because all of Samford’s players have assigned jersey numbers, 21 of them actually share a number with another player. It isn’t unusual for multiple players to have the same number, of course, but 21 is a lot. Ensuring that two players with the same number aren’t on the field at the same time (particularly on special teams) is probably a regular duty for someone on the coaching staff.

– For Samford to have 119 players on an FCS roster, especially into the month of November, is slightly unusual and arguably rather impressive. It should be noted that SU also had by far the most players on its roster in the spring among SoCon programs (95).

—

Given that FCS lines are now not readily available until Saturday morning (at least, from what I have been able to determine), I won’t be listing any lines and totals for the subdivision. There are some lines out there for three of the SoCon games on Saturday (but not totals). The Citadel-Samford is the one league contest for which I can’t find any line. 

  • Chattanooga is an 18½-point favorite at Wofford (as of 11/6, the Mocs are 19½-point faves; o/u of 45½)
  • Furman is a 6½-point favorite at Western Carolina (as of 11/6, FU is a 4½-point fave; o/u of 51½)
  • East Tennessee State is a 7½-point favorite against VMI (as of 11/6, ETSU is a 6-point fave; o/u of 59)

Mercer is off this week.

Edit: Saturday, November 6, at 11:45 am ET — Per one source that deals in such matters, Samford is a 9½-point favorite over The Citadel, with an over/under of 77½.

—

I do have numbers from my own projection system, which as I have mentioned before is highly experimental and even more highly suspect. This is what my numbers say about Saturday’s FCS games (I include the tenths of a decimal point just to look cutting-edge):

 

Road team Home team Road tm score Home tm score
Sacred Heart St. Francis PA 18.5 18.4
Merrimack Wagner 30.6 17.4
Bryant Central Conn. State 24.9 21.4
Drake Marist 15.5 20.2
Kennesaw State Robert Morris 32.0 11.9
Alcorn State Bethune-Cookman 28.9 23.0
Stony Brook Maine 22.2 23.3
Yale Brown 37.0 24.7
Lafayette Holy Cross 15.3 26.8
Fordham Georgetown 38.4 23.4
Cornell Penn 20.2 25.4
Duquesne Long Island 28.0 15.7
Harvard Columbia 25.2 18.4
St. Thomas Davidson 21.1 25.7
Dixie State Sam Houston State 12.0 46.1
VMI ETSU 26.5 29.7
North Carolina A&T Charleston Southern 24.9 29.1
Missouri State Southern Illinois 28.0 32.0
Northern Iowa Illinois State 26.3 14.3
South Dakota Western Illinois 31.0 21.6
Youngstown State North Dakota 18.5 31.8
New Hampshire Albany 21.6 21.2
William and Mary Delaware 22.8 15.5
Lehigh Bucknell 18.4 18.1
Nicholls State McNeese State 28.1 27.2
Dayton Stetson 34.5 27.3
Gardner-Webb Hampton 32.7 29.0
North Alabama Monmouth 19.5 36.8
Chattanooga Wofford 30.8 11.1
Presbyterian Valparaiso 29.4 44.8
Furman Western Carolina 32.8 24.4
Tennessee Tech Murray State 16.7 25.4
Howard South Carolina State 19.6 32.1
Mississippi Valley St. Alabama A&M 23.8 33.7
Towson Richmond 18.9 22.3
Abilene Christian Jacksonville State 20.0 28.5
Villanova Elon 27.7 17.8
Norfolk State NC Central 27.5 21.0
Texas Southern Jackson State 20.0 39.0
Montana Northern Colorado 30.7 12.4
Alabama State Prairie View A&M 15.4 28.0
Grambling State Arkansas-Pine Bluff 25.8 20.7
Eastern Illinois Austin Peay 18.4 35.4
SE Louisiana Incarnate Word 37.4 34.5
The Citadel Samford 33.9 45.9
UC Davis Northern Arizona 32.0 24.1
Portland State Weber State 17.4 32.6
Tennessee State UT Martin 15.1 28.4
North Dakota State South Dakota State 22.1 21.1
Campbell James Madison 14.0 37.9
Morehead State San Diego 27.9 33.3
Southern Utah Idaho 24.6 30.8
Houston Baptist Northwestern State 26.8 33.3
Montana State Eastern Washington 32.9 35.9
Eastern Kentucky Stephen F. Austin 25.2 24.5
Florida A&M Southern 26.8 20.5
Lamar Tarleton State 17.3 29.1
Cal Poly Sacramento State 14.6 38.6

Based on the FCS lines available as of Saturday morning, my numbers favor taking Presbyterian +20, North Dakota State +3, and Eastern Kentucky +3½. All of them are road underdogs.

As far as the totals are concerned, my system likes one over (North Carolina A&T at Charleston Southern, with a current total of 47½) and a bunch of unders:

  • Alcorn State at Bethune-Cookman (total of 59)
  • Yale at Brown (69)
  • Duquesne at LIU (51½)
  • Gardner-Webb at Hampton (68½)
  • Mississippi Valley State at Alabama A&M (64½)
  • Norfolk State at North Carolina Central (55½)
  • Southeastern Louisiana at Incarnate Word (81½)
  • Southern Utah at Idaho (62½)

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College Football Week 10, 2021: Tuesday notes and observations

Posted on November 2, 2021 by Sandlapper Spike

– Notes from Monday’s presser, with information on ticket sales and future schedules, from The Post and Courier

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Today is the weekly statistical preview/review, including The Citadel, Samford, and FCS in general. This is a busy week for me, so I’m not sure if I’ll post anything else before Saturday’s game. At any rate, I’m not sure what else there is to say…

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First, my working spreadsheet: FCS statistics through October 30, 2021

There are no updated attendance numbers this week for the subdivision, because the NCAA releases the compiled attendance information for FCS every other week.

—

Also not included on the spreadsheet is onside kick data, but I’ll discuss that right here. There is no distinction between ‘surprise’ and ‘expected’ onside kicks in these totals, but I believe they are still interesting.

Presbyterian leads all of western civilization in onside kick attempts, as you might have guessed, with 34 of them so far this season, more than one-fourth of the entire total for FCS (131). Bethune-Cookman, with 4 attempts, is in an extremely distant second place.

PC has successfully recovered 7 of its onside kicks, a rate of 20.59%. That is slightly below the national average of 24.43%; indeed, teams not called the Blue Hose have actually recovered 25.77% of their onside kicks.

Of the many unconventional things Presbyterian head coach Kevin Kelley does, his “never punt” philosophy tends to draw most of the attention. However, the devotion to onside kicks might be more interesting from a cutting-edge game theory standpoint. I have seen one study suggesting that the break-even point (at least in college) for the all-onside kick, all-the-time approach is about 26%, but I’m not completely sure that accounts for the potential variance in the number of possessions in a specific game.

The Blue Hose, for example, throw on average 58.25 passes per game, by far the most in FCS. Presbyterian has the highest pass-play rate in the subdivision (passing or attempting to pass on 72.4% of its plays from scrimmage).

That style of play on offense, combined with short fields PC’s opponents get when recovering onside kicks, would presumably result in a few more possessions per game than the norm (and thus more chances to score). I could be very wrong about this, but I think that might increase the break-even point for the strategy to somewhere around 30%-33%.

Recovering that high a percentage of onside kicks will be hard to do at the college level, but I suspect we’re going to find out in the next couple of years if it is possible.

—

Offense

– Yards per play

  • FCS average: 5.40
  • Top 5: Eastern Washington (7.54), South Dakota State, Southeastern Louisiana, Nicholls State, North Dakota State
  • Bottom 5: Lehigh (3.28), Grambling State, Bucknell, Houston Baptist, Wagner
  • The Citadel: 5.21 (73rd nationally out of 128 teams); Samford: 5.92 (27th)
  • Other SoCon teams: ETSU 11th, Mercer 12th

– Adjusted yards per rush (“adjusted” means sacks are counted in passing and not rushing stats)

  • FCS average: 4.73
  • Top 5: Nicholls State (6.59), North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Sam Houston State, Abilene Christian
  • Bottom 5: Georgetown (2.92), Bucknell, Robert Morris, Cal Poly, Alabama State
  • The Citadel: 4.74 (63rd); Samford: 4.83 (57th)
  • Other SoCon teams: ETSU 6th, Mercer 11th, Wofford 19th, Chattanooga 25th

– Adjusted yards per pass

  • FCS average: 6.09
  • Top 5: Davidson (9.68), Eastern Washington, Southeastern Louisiana, Kennesaw State, South Dakota State
  • Bottom 5: Lehigh (3.05), Grambling State, Bucknell, Houston Baptist, Morgan State
  • The Citadel: 6.96 (27th); Samford: 6.60 (41st)
  • Other SoCon teams: Mercer 10th, ETSU 19th

– Fewest passing attempts: Davidson (71), Kennesaw State (93), The Citadel (104)

  • Wofford has the 6th-fewest (147)

– Most passing attempts: Presbyterian (466, or 58.25 per game, by far the most in FCS)

  • Samford has the 4th-most (370), Western Carolina has thrown the 6th-most

– Completion percentage: Southeastern Louisiana leads the nation at 72.3%; average is 58.8%

  • Samford is 8th (66.5%); VMI is 10th
  • The Citadel has the 6th-worst completion percentage (48.6%)
  • Grambling State is last (44.2%); there are 9 FCS teams below 50%

– Sacks against

  • North Dakota has a sack rate allowed of just 1.1%, tops in the subdivision
  • Lamar has the worst (14.8%)
  • The Citadel is 7th-worst (11.9%); Samford is 6th-best (2.9%)

– Percentage of run plays: Davidson runs the ball 84.2% of the time, most in FCS, followed by Kennesaw State, The Citadel (79.0%), North Dakota State, and Wofford. Mercer is 8th.

– Percentage of pass plays: As mentioned above, Presbyterian has a pass play rate of 72.4%, highest in FCS, followed by Western Illinois, Houston Baptist, Dixie State, and Incarnate Word. Samford (61.2%) has the 9th-highest pass play rate.

– Plays per game: Presbyterian’s offense averages 86.6 plays from scrimmage per game, leading the nation. Samford is 4th (77.9), Western Carolina is 5th. Grambling State (54.8) averages the fewest. The Citadel averages 70.3 plays per contest.

– Points per play (FCS average is .381)

  • Top 5: South Dakota State (.651), Eastern Washington, Southeastern Louisiana, North Dakota State, Sam Houston State
  • Davidson is 6th, Mercer 11th, Samford 23rd (.475), The Citadel 85th (.335)
  • Lehigh is last in the subdivision (.106)

– Points per game (FCS average is 25.6 ppg): Eastern Washington is the national leader, at 51.5 points per contest, followed by Southeastern Louisiana, South Dakota State, Sam Houston State, and Davidson. Samford is tied for 9th (37.0 ppg), The Citadel is tied for 77th (23.5). Lehigh (6.1 ppg) is last.

– 3rd down conversion rate (FCS average: 37.38%)

  • Top 5: Southeastern Louisiana (55.67%), Eastern Washington, Davidson, Merrimack, Hampton. ETSU is 6th.
  • Bottom 5: Lehigh (20.59%), New Hampshire, Wagner, Eastern Illinois, Bucknell.
  • The Citadel: 25th (43.33%); Samford: 40th (41.03%)

– 4th down attempts/conversion rate

  • Chattanooga is 4 for 4 on fourth-down tries, the only perfect team in this category. In second place nationally is Kennesaw State, at 15 for 17 (88.24%); I would give the Owls the nod as the most successful fourth-down conversion offense
  • Presbyterian has gone for it on fourth down 62 times; second-place Stetson has done so 32 times. The Citadel is tied for 6th in attempts (27), while Samford is tied for 23rd (19).

– Go rate (FCS average of 23.26%):

  • Naturally, Presbyterian is way above the competition on this list (89.86%). The Blue Hose have only punted seven times and have not attempted a field goal (the only team in Division I yet to do so).
  • Stetson is 2nd in go rate (54.24%), followed by Davidson, Merrimack, and Southeastern Louisiana. The Citadel is 8th nationally (41.54%). Samford is 28th (28.36%).
  • Last in go rate: Chattanooga (6.45%); Furman is 4th-lowest.

– Red Zone offense (estimated points per offensive RZ possession average): 4.79

  • Top 5: Holy Cross (6.03), Southeastern Louisiana, Central Arkansas, Southeast Missouri State, Fordham
  • Bottom 5: Lehigh (2.35), Northwestern State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Cal Poly, Indiana State
  • The Citadel: 56th (4.96); Samford: 19th (5.51)

– Red Zone offense trips per game (average: 3.50)

  • Top 5: Eastern Washington (6.25), Southeastern Louisiana, Samford (5.13), Sacramento State, South Dakota State/Norfolk State (tied for 5th). VMI is 10th.
  • Bottom 5: Lamar (1.14), Bucknell, Morgan State, Houston Baptist, Northern Colorado
  • The Citadel is averaging 3.25 Red Zone trips per contest (76th)

– Seconds per play

  • Samford averages 18.49 seconds per offensive play, making it the fastest offense in FCS. The rest of the top five includes Charleston Southern, Presbyterian, Eastern Washington, and Austin Peay. Western Carolina is 10th, VMI 21st.
  • Delaware State (32.56 seconds/play) is the slowest offense in the subdivision, followed by Lamar, North Dakota State, Duquesne, and Tennessee State. Chattanooga is 6th-slowest, while Wofford is the 12th-slowest.
  • The Citadel ranks 42nd (27.14 seconds/play).

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The three best offenses in FCS are, rather clearly, Southeastern Louisiana, Eastern Washington, and South Dakota State. I would give the nod at this point in the season to Southeastern Louisiana for having the #1 offense.

Lehigh has the nation’s worst offense. An argument could be made that Bucknell has the second-worst offense in FCS. As it happens, those two teams play each other on Saturday. Should be a barn-burner…

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Defense

– Yards per play

  • Top 5: Jackson State (3.61), James Madison, Princeton, Harvard, Prairie View A&M
  • Bottom 5: Southern Utah (7.17), Youngstown State, Hampton, Butler, Lamar
  • The Citadel is 121st nationally (6.69), while Samford is 101st (6.16). Chattanooga is 24th, and Mercer is 25th.

– Adjusted yards per rush

  • Top 5: James Madison (2.85), Princeton, Sam Houston State, Harvard, Montana
  • Bottom 5: Lamar (6.63), Youngstown State, Alabama A&M, Butler, Western Illinois
  • The Citadel: 112th (5.58), Samford 83rd (5.10)

– Adjusted yards per pass

  • Top 5: Jackson State (3.44), Prairie View A&M, Sacred Heart, Florida A&M, Princeton
  • Bottom 5: Southern Utah (9.19), Central Connecticut State, Hampton, Howard, The Citadel (8.14)
  • Samford is 109th (7.61)
  • Chattanooga is 19th, ETSU 25th

– Sack rate

  • Top 5: Jackson State (13.0%), North Dakota State, Stephen F. Austin, Florida A&M, Stetson. Chattanooga is 8th.
  • Bottom 5: Idaho State (1.9%), Drake, Butler, VMI, Austin Peay
  • The Citadel is 115th (4.0%), Samford is 102nd (4.7%).

– Percentage of run plays faced: VMI (62.2%), followed by Eastern Illinois, Butler, Albany, and Western Carolina. Furman is 7th on this list, Samford 11th, The Citadel 16th, and Mercer 21st.

– Percentage of pass plays faced: Harvard (61.8%), followed by Princeton, William and Mary, McNeese State, and Monmouth.

– William and Mary has faced 39.6 pass attempts per game, most in FCS; Albany has faced the least (22.6).

– Houston Baptist has allowed a completion percentage of 70.0%, highest in the country (Wofford has allowed the 8th-highest). Prairie View A&M (47.0%) has allowed the lowest.

Plays against: Fordham (83.0 per game) has faced the most, followed by Samford (80.9). Every other SoCon team has faced between 61.8 (Chattanooga) and 72.0 (VMI) plays per contest. The Citadel has faced 65.5 per game.

– Points per play allowed

  • Top 5: North Dakota State (.138), Montana State, Harvard, Jackson State, Montana. ETSU is 19th, Furman 22nd.
  • Bottom 5: Presbyterian (.812), Brown, Lamar, LIU, Alabama A&M
  • The Citadel has allowed .531 points per play (113th), while Samford has given up .478 ppp (94th).

– Points per game against

  • North Dakota State (8.1 ppg) leads this category, followed by Montana State, Harvard, Jackson State, and Dartmouth. Chattanooga is 18th.
  • Presbyterian (51.4 ppg) has allowed the most, followed by Western Carolina, Houston Baptist, Brown, and LIU.
  • The Citadel is 110th (34.8); Samford is 119th (38.6).

– 3rd down conversion rate against

  • Top 5: Yale (21.3%), North Dakota State, Harvard, James Madison, and Florida A&M. Chattanooga is 9th.
  • Bottom 5: Southern Utah (54.9%), Idaho State, Jacksonville State, Illinois State, Southern. Wofford is 120th.
  • The Citadel is 111th (45.4%), Samford 119th (48.5%).

– 4th down attempts/conversion rate against

  • Youngstown State has faced the fewest 4th down attempts (5). The Citadel, Furman, and Idaho State have each faced 7.
  • William and Mary has faced 27, tied for the most, and all the more notable because the Tribe has not played Presbyterian.
  • Furman has only allowed one successful conversion in 7 tries, but the leader in this area is St. Thomas (MN), which has only given up 1 conversion in 13 opponent attempts. The national average is 49.7%.

– Havoc Rate (FCS average: 15.64%)

  • Top 5: Jackson State (24.2%), Florida A&M, James Madison, Stephen F. Austin, Alabama State (which just fired its coach). Chattanooga is 11th.
  • Bottom 5: Wofford (9.89%), Marist, Bucknell, The Citadel (10.88%), Southern Utah
  • Samford is 113th (12.36%)

– Red Zone defense

  • Top 5: Harvard (2.74 estimated points per RZ possession), North Dakota State, Dartmouth, Kennesaw State, St. Thomas (MN)
  • Bottom 5: Western Carolina (6.20), Lamar, Brown, Davidson, Butler
  • The Citadel is 76th, Samford 116th.

– Fewest Red Zone trips allowed per game

  • Top 5: James Madison (1.38), North Dakota State, St. Thomas (MN), Jackson State, Sacred Heart
  • Bottom 5: Presbyterian (7.25), LIU, Texas Southern, Houston Baptist, Dixie State
  • The Citadel is 88th, Samford 103rd.

—

North Dakota State has the best defense in FCS; I would include James Madison and Jackson State in the top 3.

It is hard to argue against Presbyterian having the worst defense in the subdivision, but the Blue Hose’s D is handicapped by its style of play. Among teams that play “normally”, Southern Utah probably would get the, uh, honor.

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Miscellaneous

– Montana continues to lead the nation in net punting (44.59). The rest of the top five: Missouri State, Sacramento State, Davidson, and UC Davis. The Citadel is now 15th (40.06) after a tough day last Saturday.

Samford is 19th in net punting (39.00). Norfolk State has “passed” Presbyterian as the nation’s worst punting team (23.04). The national average is 35.85.

– Princeton is averaging 32.14 penalty yards per game, fewest in FCS. Other top squads at avoiding yellow flags: Bucknell, Wofford, Furman, and Delaware. The Citadel ranks 50th (50.38), while Samford is 72nd (56.38)

The most penalized team, in terms of yardage, continues to be Florida A&M (91.63). Only three of the ten most penalized teams in FCS have losing records.

– Turnover margin: Montana STate (+1.50 per game) leads FCS. Chattanooga is second, followed by Alcorn State and James Madison.

The Citadel is tied for 87th (-0.13 per game), while Samford is 90th (-.025). The worst turnover margin in the subdivision belongs to Presbyterian (-2.50), followed by Brown, Tennessee Tech, Murray State, and Dixie State.

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More later in the week (maybe)…

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Looking at the numbers, 2021 preseason: returning starters in the SoCon

Posted on July 31, 2021 by Sandlapper Spike

Other preseason posts from July:

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One of the major storylines for the upcoming football season is the large number of experienced gridders who are returning to college this fall. The “free year” that was the F20/S21 school year has led to a glut of so-called “superseniors”, players in their sixth years (or fifth-year players who haven’t redshirted).

As a result of the extra year being granted, Clemson has at least two players (linebacker James Skalski and punter Will Spiers) who could conceivably play in 70 games during their college careers. That is just a ludicrous number of games for a college football player, but we live in ludicrous times.

Illinois has 22 superseniors, most in the country (the Illini also have 18 “regular” seniors). In February, the AP reported that over 1,000 superseniors were on FBS rosters, a number that has probably declined since then, but still obviously significant.

Information on FCS programs is sketchier, but there was a recent report confirming that Southern Illinois has 16 superseniors, which has to be close to the most in the subdivision, if not the most. Between Illinois and SIU, there are a lot of veteran pigskin collegians in the Land of Lincoln.

Incidentally, one of Southern Illinois’ superseniors is former Western Carolina running back Donnavan Spencer, who transferred from Cullowhee to Carbondale for the fall 2021 campaign.

All of this is reflected in sizeable “returning starters” lists among a lot of teams throughout the sport, including both the FBS and FCS. As an example, here are some numbers from the ACC and SEC, per Phil Steele’s 2021 College Football Preview:

  • Wake Forest: 20 returning starters (but with tough injury news over the last week)
  • North Carolina State: 19
  • Miami: 19 (and only lost 9 out of 70 lettermen)
  • Syracuse: 19
  • Arkansas: 19
  • North Carolina: 18
  • LSU: 18 (hopefully some of them will play pass defense this season)
  • Florida State: 17 (joined by a bunch of D-1 transfers)
  • Boston College: 17
  • Georgia Tech: 17
  • Vanderbilt: 17 (possibly not a positive)
  • Mississippi: 17

The team in those two leagues with the fewest returning starters is Alabama, with 11. Of course, the Tide had six players from last season’s squad picked in the first round of the NFL draft, so a bit of turnover in Tuscaloosa was inevitable. I suspect Nick Saban isn’t too worried about replacing them.

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The returning production totals are unprecedented at the FBS level.

The top 10 includes several very interesting teams, including Louisiana-Lafayette, Arizona State, Nevada, and UCLA. It is somewhat incredible that Coastal Carolina has a returning production rate of 89% and doesn’t even crack the top 15.

Some of the teams at the bottom of this ranking are national powers that reload every year. Alabama was already mentioned, but the same is true for Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Florida.

BYU and Northwestern also had outstanding seasons last year (and combined for three first-round draft picks). The story wasn’t the same for Duke and South Carolina, however.

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Okay, now time to talk about the SoCon. Who in the league is coming back this fall? An easier question to answer would be: who isn’t?

SoCon returning starters, Fall 2021

The spreadsheet linked above has 12 categories. A quick explanation of each:

  • F20/S21 Games Played: total number of games played by a team during the 2020-21 school year, both in the fall (F20) and the spring (S21)
  • F20/S21 Participants: the number of players who suited up during 2020-21
  • F20/S21 Starters: the number of different starters during 2020-21
  • F20/S21 Returning Participants: the number of returnees who played during 2020-21
  • F20/S21 Returning Starters: the number of returning starters from 2020-21
  • F20/S21 Returning Starters 2+: the number of returnees from 2020-21 who started at least two games
  • Spring 2021: total number of games played by a team in the spring (all conference games, except for VMI’s playoff matchup)
  • Spring 2021 Participants: the number of players who took the field during the spring
  • Spring 2021 Starters: the number of different starters during the spring
  • Spring Returning Participants: the number of returnees who played in the spring
  • Spring Returning Starters: the number of returning starters from the spring
  • Spring Returning Starters 2+: the number of returnees who started at least two games during the spring

Most of that needs no explanation. The idea of including a category for multiple starts was inspired by Chattanooga’s game against Mercer, when the Mocs fielded what was essentially a “B” team. UTC had 19 players who started that game, but did not start in any of Chattanooga’s other three spring contests.

There are a few players who started one game in the spring, but also started at least one game in the fall. They are listed as having started multiple games for F20/S21, of course, but not for the spring.

The list of starters does not include special teams players. Some programs list specialists as starters, but they generally are not treated as such from a statistical point of view, and for the sake of consistency I am only listing offensive and defensive starters.

Returnee stats are based on each school’s online football roster as of July 26 (the league’s Media Day). 

Players on current rosters who did not start in F20/S21, but who did start games in 2019, are not included as returning starters. There are two players from The Citadel who fit this description; undoubtedly there are a few others in the conference.

I also did not count any incoming transfers with prior starting experience. That is simply another piece to a team’s roster puzzle.

There is no doubt that transfers will have a major impact on the fall 2021 season. For example, Western Carolina has 15 players on its roster who arrived from junior colleges or other four-year schools following the spring 2021 campaign (the Catamounts have 26 transfers in all).

Five of the nine SoCon schools did not play in the fall. Thus, their overall numbers are the same as their spring totals (and are noted as such on the spreadsheet).

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As I’ve said before, when it comes to the veracity of the game summaries, I think the athletic media relations folks at the SoCon schools did quite well for the most part, especially when considering how difficult staffing must have been at times during the spring. There were a few miscues, and in terms of data input, the participation charts seemed to cause the most problems.

Did Mercer start a game with no offensive linemen? Uh, no. Was a backup quarterback a defensive starter for Chattanooga? Nope. In three different contests, did Furman take the field after the opening kickoff with only 10 players? It did not.

There was also a scattering of double-counted players, usually a result of misspellings or changes in jersey numbers. Hey, it happens.

Ultimately, I am fairly confident in the general accuracy of the numbers in the spreadsheet linked above, particularly the categories for starters. The totals for participants should also be largely correct, although I will say that it is harder to find (and correct) errors in online participation charts for participants than it is starters. That is because the players who tend to be occasionally omitted from the charts are special teams performers and backup offensive linemen — in other words, non-starters who do not accumulate standard statistics.

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According to the SoCon’s fall prospectus, 553 of the 636 players who lettered in F20/S21 are playing this fall (86.9%). That tracks with my numbers, with 83.2% of all participants returning (573 of 689). I did find one player listed as a returnee in the prospectus who is not on his school’s online roster; it is possible there are one or two more such cases.

Samford had by far the most participants, with 95 (in seven contests). Of that group, however, 24 only appeared in one game during the spring. The number of multiple-game participants for SU is more in line with some of the other spring-only teams, such as Furman; the Paladins also played seven games, with 71 participants, 64 of whom played in at least two games.

Having said that, kudos to Samford for being able to maintain a roster that large this spring. That is a credit to its coaching and support staff.

Mercer, which played three games in the fall and eight in the spring, has the most returnees that started multiple games, with 37. There are 25 Bears who are returning after making at least two spring starts.

The Citadel has the most players returning who had 2+ starts in the spring, with 28. Wofford has the fewest (19), not a huge surprise given the Terriers only played in five games.

Chattanooga and East Tennessee State combine to return 122 out of 128 players who participated in the spring season. Those returnees include 75 players who started at least one spring game.

Conference teams average 30.44 returning starters from the spring. No squad has fewer than 25.

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For the SoCon, I’m not really capable of fully replicating the formula Bill Connelly uses for his FBS returning production rates; I lack access to some of the necessary data. Therefore, I am just going to list some of the (very limited) spots throughout the conference in which teams will have to replace key performers from the spring. I realize that is more anecdotal in nature than the rest of this post.

  • Furman must replace three starters on its offensive line, including the versatile Reed Kroeber (41 career starts for the Paladins). FU also loses first-team all-SoCon free safety Darius Kearse.
  • Wofford has to replace its second-leading rusher from the spring (Ryan Lovelace), and players who accounted for 61% of the Terriers’ receiving production.
  • VMI loses three defensive stalwarts who were second-team all-conference selections; one of them, lineman Jordan Ward, will be a graduate transfer at Ball State this fall.
  • The Keydets will also miss Reece Udinski, who transferred to Maryland (as was announced before the spring campaign even began). However, Seth Morgan certainly filled in at QB with aplomb after Udinski suffered a season-ending injury.
  • Mercer must replace leading rusher Deondre Johnson, a second-team all-league pick.
  • Samford placekicker Mitchell Fineran, an all-SoCon performer who led the conference in scoring, graduated and transferred to Purdue. He is the only regular placekicker or punter in the conference from the spring not to return for the fall.
  • I mentioned earlier that Western Carolina running back Donnavan Spencer (a first-team all-conference choice) transferred to Southern Illinois. The Catamounts also lost another first-team all-league player, center Isaiah Helms, a sophomore who transferred to Appalachian State. That has to sting a bit in Cullowhee. 
  • WCU’s starting quarterback last spring, Ryan Glover, transferred to California (his third school; he started his collegiate career at Penn). Glover and VMI’s Udinski are the only league players to start multiple games at quarterback this spring who are not returning this fall.
  • Western Carolina defensive tackle Roman Johnson is listed on the Catamounts’ online roster, but also reportedly entered the transfer portal (for a second time) in mid-July. I am including him as a returning starter for now, but there is clearly a lot of uncertainty as to his status.
  • The Citadel must replace starting right tackle Thomas Crawford (the only spring starter for the Bulldogs who is not returning).
  • A few players who appeared in fall 2020 action but not in the spring eventually found their way to FBS-land. Chattanooga wide receiver Bryce Nunnelly, a two-time first team all-SoCon selection during his time with the Mocs, will play at Western Michigan this season. Mercer wideout Steven Peterson, who originally matriculated at Coastal Carolina before moving to Macon, is now at Georgia. Strong safety Sean-Thomas Faulkner of The Citadel will wear the mean green of North Texas this fall.

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Odds and ends:

  • Of the 51 players on the media’s all-SoCon teams (first and second), 42 will return this fall. 
  • One of those returnees is ETSU linebacker Jared Folks, who will be an eighth-year collegian this season (the only one in D-1). Folks started his college career at Temple in 2014 — the same year in which Patrick Mahomes debuted for Texas Tech.
  • Robert Riddle, the former Mercer quarterback who did not appear in F20/S21, is now at Chattanooga. Riddle made nine starts for the Bears over two seasons, but his time in the program was ravaged by injuries.
  • Chris Oladokun, who started Samford’s spring opener at QB, transferred to South Dakota State. Oladokun began his college days at South Florida before moving to Birmingham, where he started eight games for SU in 2019. His brother Jordan will be a freshman defensive back at Samford this fall.

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So, to sum up: every team has lots of players back, which means (almost) every team’s fans expects the upcoming season for their respective squads to be truly outstanding. College football games this year will all take place in Lake Wobegon, because everyone will be above average.

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2021 Spring Football, Game 5: The Citadel vs. Samford

Posted on March 25, 2021 by Sandlapper Spike

The Citadel vs. Samford, to be played at historic Johnson Hagood Stadium, with kickoff at 1:00 pm ET on March 27, 2021.

The game will be streamed on ESPN+. Dave Weinstein will handle play-by-play, while Jason Kempf supplies the analysis.

The contest can be heard on radio via The Citadel Sports Network. WQNT-1450 AM [audio link], originating in Charleston, will be the flagship station. 

Luke Mauro (the “Voice of the Bulldogs”) calls the action alongside analyst Lee Glaze. 

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Links of interest:

– Game preview in The Post and Courier

– Darique Hampton gets his shot

– Game notes from The Citadel and Samford

– SoCon weekly release

– Preview on The Citadel’s website

– Preview on Samford’s website

– The Chris Hatcher Show

– The Citadel’s home attendance policies for spring football

– The Citadel releases its fall 2021 schedule

– “Live Stats” online platform

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In this section, I establish the traditional ground rules for writing about The Citadel and Samford, as both teams are nicknamed “Bulldogs”. The SoCon did not require Samford to change its nickname in order to gain entry into the league, a ridiculous oversight.

Regardless, for the purposes of this post, “Bulldogs” refers to The Citadel. The reason: I graduated from The Citadel, and this is my blog.

I’ll call Samford “SU”, the “Birmingham Bulldogs”, the “Crimson Bulldogs”, the “Baptist Tigers”, or the “Baptist Bears”.

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I’m going to mostly copy/paste something I previously wrote about Samford’s history in the next couple of sections. (If you had the week I’ve had, you would be looking for shortcuts, too.)

For those of you reading this who are somehow unfamiliar with the Baptist Tigers/Bears, here is a quick review (the site I took this blurb from is currently offline):

The Howard College [later to be renamed Samford] team was known originally as the “Baptist Tigers”. However, rival Auburn also had “Tigers” as a nickname. Howard’s teams went by “Baptist Bears” until Dec. 14, 1916, when the student body voted two-to-one for the “Crimson Bulldog” over the “Baptist Bears”. Students decided that a bulldog could eat more Birmingham-Southern Panther meat than a bear could.

I really don’t understand why the students thought bears wouldn’t eat as much meat as bulldogs. Were Alabama’s bears back then strict vegetarians? Could it be that bears from all regions were not as physically imposing then as they are now? That would put a different slant on Paul “Bear” Bryant’s nickname, wouldn’t it?

We’ll never know. The mysteries of early-20th century university life remain largely unsolved.

Birmingham-Southern, by the way, is a Division III school (which was very briefly in NCAA Division I about 15 years ago) and a former rival of Samford. The two schools played in the first football game ever contested at Legion Field, on November 19, 1927. Samford (then Howard) won, 9-0.

While Legion Field was obviously close to home, in those days the Samford football program liked to travel. During the 1920s, SU played Duquesne in Pittsburgh (at Forbes Field) and North Dakota (in Grand Forks). There were even out-of-country junkets to Cuba (playing the Havana National University). Later, Samford played games in Mexico City against the National University of Mexico (in 1954 and 1963).

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For you legal nerds out there: Samford’s law school, Cumberland, was actually purchased from Cumberland University of Tennessee in 1961. That doesn’t happen very often; in fact, in terms of moving a law school across state lines, I’m not sure it has ever happened anywhere else.

I am aware of only two other law schools that shifted to different universities (both in-state) — the University of Puget Sound School of Law, which is now part of Seattle University; and the law school at the University of Bridgeport, in Connecticut, which is now affiliated with Quinnipiac University.

I’m sure Quinnipiac polled the surrounding area for its opinion before acquiring the law school.

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I posted links to game notes for The Citadel and Samford above, along with the SoCon’s weekly release. For anyone interested, here are links to this week’s game notes for the other league schools playing (Furman is off this week):

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Participation report:

The Citadel had 41 players see action in the game versus East Tennessee State, an increase of six from the previous week. The Buccaneers had 46 participants.

Breaking down the Bulldogs’ numbers a little further: nine players had rushes/receptions, while 18 players recorded tackles.

Samford used 58 players last week against VMI (with 47 Keydets seeing the field).

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Updated career points scored by Bulldogs on the active spring roster:

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The Citadel’s listed depth chart for its matchup with Samford, by class:

  • Freshmen: 10
  • Redshirt freshmen: 8
  • Sophomores: 3
  • Redshirt sophomores: 12
  • Juniors: 11
  • Redshirt juniors: 5
  • Seniors: 1
  • Redshirt seniors: 0
  • Graduate students: 1

There were a few alterations to the depth chart from last week, though for the most part it remained unchanged.

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Here is a breakdown of Samford’s projected depth chart for the game versus The Citadel, by class:

  • Freshmen: 11
  • Sophomores: 14
  • Juniors: 9
  • Seniors: 7
  • Graduate students: 9

SU does not identify players by redshirt status, so these numbers reflect eligibility more so than age or high school entry class. The graduate student classification includes mostly players who have played at Samford, graduated from that school, and retained at least one year of eligibility; the exception on the two-deep in this respect is defensive lineman Seth Simmer, a graduate transfer from Dartmouth.

It is perhaps a touch inconsistent to list graduate students and seniors separately without also listing redshirt status for other classes, but that is a very small point.

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Samford does supplement its roster with transfers from other four-year schools (there are also two players who are products of junior colleges). The four-year schools represented on the Birmingham Bulldogs’ squad via transfer include Army, Ball State, Dartmouth, Jacksonville State, Kent State, Morehead State, North Carolina State, Sioux Falls, Southern Mississippi, South Florida, TCU, Texas Tech, and Vanderbilt.

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SU is 2-3 so far this spring (the Crimson Bulldogs did not compete in the fall). The running theme for Samford has been taking a lead, then trying to hang on for the victory. It has not been entirely successful in doing that:

  • Samford jumped out to a 14-0 lead at ETSU and led 17-14 entering the 4th quarter, but the Bucs scored 10 points in the final period and won 24-17.
  • SU was ahead 41-27 after three quarters against Western Carolina, and then added two more touchdowns for a 55-27 victory.
  • The Birmingham Bulldogs led Furman 24-7 after the 1st quarter, and were still ahead 37-23 early in the 4th, but the Paladins tied the game on a 73-yard TD pass with 2:59 to play and eventually won 44-37 in OT.
  • Samford turned the tables on Wofford, coming back from an early 10-point deficit to outlast the Terriers 37-31.
  • Last week, Samford led VMI 30-17 with less than six minutes to play, but allowed two late TDs and lost in overtime, 38-37.

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Not-so-random stat: Samford is the only team to return a punt for a touchdown in league play so far in 2021. Montrell Washington (who also starts at wide receiver for the Baptist Bears) took a punt 55 yards to the house against Furman.

SU also ranks second in the league in average kickoff return yardage.

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(All statistics below are sack-adjusted and are for spring games only.)

Offensively, Samford is passing on 56.2% of its plays from scrimmage, averaging 7.31 yards per attempt, with 9 TDs against 6 interceptions. That yards per attempt is second-best in the SoCon (Chattanooga leads in the category). The Citadel’s defense is allowing 8.10 yards per attempt, worst in the league.

SU is averaging 4.79 yards per rush, third-best in the conference (trailing Wofford and Western Carolina). The Bulldogs’ defense is allowing 4.60 yards per rush, sixth-best in the SoCon.

Defensively, the Baptist Tigers allow 6.41 yards per pass attempt, which ranks fourth-best in the league. It should be noted that the three teams in front of Samford in that category have all played The Citadel, which offensively has the worst yards/pass attempt in the conference (3.46).

SU’s defense allows 4.83 yards per rush, third-worst in the SoCon (ahead of Mercer and Western Carolina). The Citadel’s offense is fifth in the league in yards per rush (4.29).

The Citadel has run the football on 81.7% of its offensive plays from scrimmage.

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Samford’s offensive third down conversion rate is 39.0%, sixth-best in the SoCon. The Citadel’s defensive third down conversion rate is 33.3%, second-best in the league (Furman leads in that category).

SU is third in the conference in defensive third down conversion rate (34.1%), while The Citadel’s offensive is converting third downs at a 46.3% clip (second-best in the league).

The Citadel is the league’s most-penalized team, and its opponents are penalized more than any other league team’s opponents — which is to say that officials like throwing yellow flags around when the Bulldogs are on the field.

Samford, conversely, is a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of its own penalties, and draws fewer opponents’ flags than any other SoCon squad.

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The Citadel leads the league in time of possession (no surprise), while SU is actually not last in time of possession (big surprise). The Crimson Bulldogs are seventh.

SU is second in the SoCon in turnover margin (+2), while The Citadel is tied for last (-3).

Samford has an offensive Red Zone TD rate of 50.0%, tied for the worst in the league. The Citadel’s defensive Red Zone TD rate is 70.0%, tied for sixth in the conference.

The Citadel’s offensive Red Zone TD rate is 78.6%, third-best in the SoCon. SU’s defensive Red Zone TD rate of 65.0% ranks fifth in the league.

In general, when it comes to the Red Zone, Samford has settled for too many field goal attempts this season — but so have its opponents.

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Odds and ends:

– The weather forecast for Saturday in Charleston, per the National Weather Service: a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high of 80°.

– Per one source that deals in such matters, Samford (as of March 24) is a 10½-point favorite over The Citadel. The over/under is 61½.

– Other SoCon lines this week (as of March 24): VMI is a 4-point favorite at Wofford (over/under of 44½); Chattanooga is a 7½-point favorite over Mercer (over/under of 44½); and East Tennessee State is a 14½-point favorite over Western Carolina (over/under of 44).

A few more games of note in FCS: San Diego is a 17½-point favorite at Presbyterian; Davidson is a 7½-point favorite over Morehead State; Charleston Southern is a 3-point favorite at Monmouth; James Madison is a 17½-point favorite at William and Mary; Drake is a 15½-point favorite at Stetson; North Dakota State is a 21½-point favorite at South Dakota; Richmond is an 11-point favorite over Elon; Northern Iowa is a 4-point favorite at Western Illinois; and Jacksonville State is a 10-point favorite over Austin Peay (with that game one of seven FCS contests being played on Sunday).

– Samford’s notable alumni include actor Tony Hale (of Veep and Arrested Development fame), opera singer Elizabeth Futral, and longtime college football coach Bobby Bowden.

Two quotes from Bobby Bowden:

On his defense and its tendency to hit quarterbacks late: “We just hit until the echo [of the whistle] instead of the whistle.”

On why he didn’t suspend placekicker Sebastian Janikowski from the national title game (in the Sugar Bowl) when it was discovered that Janikowski had stayed out all night in New Orleans: “Well, he’s from Poland and he falls under the ‘International Rules’.”

– The Citadel is 7-6 in the all-time series against Samford. The Cadets have won three of the last four games played in Charleston.

– The Crimson Bulldogs’ 111-man roster includes 32 players from Alabama. Other states represented: Georgia (31 players), Florida (12), Tennessee (11), Mississippi (6), North Carolina (3), Arkansas (2), Indiana (2), Louisiana (2), Ohio (2), South Carolina (2), Texas (2), and one each from California, Missouri, New York, and Virginia.

SU’s punter, Bradley Porcellato, is from Melbourne, Australia.

– The two Palmetto State products on the Baptist Tigers’ squad are freshman placekicker Henry Bishop (who went to Spartanburg High School) and graduate transfer defensive lineman Connor Koch, a TCU alumnus who played high school football for Woodberry Forest in Virginia. Koch’s hometown is listed as Charleston, S.C.

Alas, no Samford player can claim to be an alumnus of South Carolina’s fabled football fortress, Orangeburg-Wilkinson High School. The failure of the Baptist Bears to recruit anyone who has worn the famed maroon and orange is a symbol of SU’s impending dissolution as a gridiron concern. The future of pigskin does not look bright in Birmingham, or in its surrounding suburbs.

– The Citadel’s geographic roster breakdown (per the school’s game notes) is as follows: South Carolina (48 players), Georgia (15), Florida (9), North Carolina (7), Texas (3), Pennsylvania (2), Virginia (2), and one each from Alabama, Kentucky, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Tennessee.

Tight end Hayden Williamson played his high school football in Okinawa, Japan.

– The Citadel’s football team has an all-time record of 0-0 for games played on March 27. That is tied for the fewest wins, and fewest losses, for any date in program history.

– This week during the 1990 baseball season at The Citadel:

The Bulldogs entered the week 22-1 (5-0 in the SoCon). On March 21, The Citadel won its second straight game against LeMoyne, 5-2. Brad Stowell got the win, while Gettys Glaze picked up the save. The decisive blow came in the sixth inning, when Jason Rychlick hit his first career home run, a two-run shot. Rychlick had been inserted into the game as a defensive replacement; he had earlier that week spent time in the infirmary, suffering from the flu.

The Citadel then hosted Furman for a three-game series at College Park. On Saturday, March 24, the Bulldogs swept a doubleheader from the Paladins, 3-1 and 3-0. Both were complete-game victories on the hill, pitched by Ken Britt and Richard Shirer respectively. Shirer allowed just two hits en route to his shutout. The first game featured a two-hit, two-RBI effort from Chris Coker, including a bases-loaded double.

With the two wins, the Bulldogs established a new school record for consecutive victories.

The next day, The Citadel completed the series sweep with a 3-2 win. Billy Baker garnered the decision with 7 1/3 strong innings, striking out 10. Glaze finished the game to earn the save. Anthony Jenkins homered, and Tony Skole scored on a double by Rychlick. The other Bulldog run was scored by Dan McDonnell after a wild pitch.

On March 26, The Citadel defeated Kent State 13-3 for its 26th straight victory. It would prove to be the last win in the streak. The game was tied in the bottom of the seventh, when the Bulldogs erupted for eight runs, highlighted by a Jenkins grand slam. Stowell was the winning pitcher. Chris Lemonis started at DH and went 1 for 3, picking up one of his two hits that season.

The next day, the Bulldogs lost to Kent State, 2-1, ending the longest winning streak (26 games) in school history.

The Citadel was 5-1 during the week ending March 27. The overall record stood at 27-2 (8-0 SoCon).

—

I don’t really have much else to say. The Citadel has been snakebit this season, but it has at times earned those wounds.

This week presents yet another challenge, with the strong possibility of a new starting quarterback. Darique Hampton looked solid in his appearance against ETSU, which should make fans of the Bulldogs feel a little better about things.

The Citadel must make Samford earn its points. The defense cannot allow the soul-crushing big plays that have come all too often this season.

On the other hand, the offense needs a few long gainers of its own. I know I constantly focus on the Bulldogs’ lack of big plays on offense, but that is because the topic is important. The Citadel is not consistently putting the ball in the end zone on its longer drives, which makes getting yards in bunches even more necessary.

I’m ready for a victory. We all are.

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2019 Football, Game 5: The Citadel vs. Samford

Posted on September 25, 2019 by Sandlapper Spike

The Citadel vs. Samford, to be played at Seibert Stadium in Homewood, Alabama, with kickoff at 3:00 pm ET on September 28, 2019.

The game will be streamed on ESPN+. Curt Bloom will handle play-by-play, while Chad Pilcher supplies the analysis. Brad Gardner will report from the sidelines.

The contest can be heard on radio via the various affiliates of The Citadel Sports Network. WQNT-1450 AM [audio link], originating in Charleston, will be the flagship station. 

Luke Mauro (the “Voice of the Bulldogs”) calls the action alongside analyst Ted Byrne.

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The Citadel Sports Network — 2019 radio affiliates

Charleston: WQNT 1450 AM/92.1 FM/102.1 FM (Flagship)
Columbia: WQXL 1470 AM/100.7 FM
Sumter: WDXY 1240 AM/105.9 FM

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Links of interest:

– Preview from The Post and Courier

– Internet legend Joshua Roides talks physics, finance, flood tides, and football

– Will starting quarterback Brandon Rainey be back this week? Signs point to yes

– Game notes from The Citadel and Samford

– SoCon weekly release

– Preview on The Citadel’s website

– Chris Hatcher’s weekly press conference (9/26)

– Samford strong safety Nick Barton answers questions at SU’s weekly press conference

– The Chris Hatcher Show (9/25)

– Game highlights — Alabama A&M vs. Samford

– Game highlights — Samford vs. Wofford

– Brent Thompson’s weekly press conference (9/23)

– The Brent Thompson Show (9/25)

– The Dogs:  Episode 5 (Charleston Southern)

– Game program for Saturday’s contest

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This is the now-traditional section where I establish ground rules for writing about The Citadel and Samford, as both teams are nicknamed “Bulldogs”. As to why the powers that be in the Southern Conference did not insist on Samford changing its nickname as a requirement for entry into the league, your guess is as good as mine.

At any rate, in this post, “Bulldogs” refers to The Citadel. The reason for that is simple: I graduated from The Citadel, and this is my blog.

I’ll call Samford “SU”, the “Birmingham Bulldogs”, the “Crimson Bulldogs”, the “Baptist Tigers”, or the “Baptist Bears”.

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For those of you reading this who are somehow unfamiliar with the Baptist Tigers/Bears, a quick look at the history of Samford football is in order:

The Howard College [later to be renamed Samford] team was known originally as the “Baptist Tigers”. However, rival Auburn also had “Tigers” as a nickname. Howard’s teams went by “Baptist Bears” until Dec. 14, 1916, when the student body voted two-to-one for the “Crimson Bulldog” over the “Baptist Bears”. Students decided that a bulldog could eat more Birmingham-Southern Panther meat than a bear could.

I’ve said this before, but I really don’t understand why the students thought bears wouldn’t eat as much meat as bulldogs. Were Alabama’s bears back then strict vegetarians? I guess we’ll never know.

Ah, the mysteries of early-20th century university life…

Birmingham-Southern, by the way, is a Division III school (which was very briefly in NCAA Division I about 15 years ago) and a former rival of Samford. The two schools played in the first football game ever contested at Legion Field, on November 19, 1927. Samford (then Howard) won, 9-0.

While Legion Field was obviously close to home, in those days the Samford football program liked to travel. During the 1920s, SU played Duquesne in Pittsburgh (at Forbes Field) and North Dakota (in Grand Forks). There were even out-of-country junkets to Cuba (playing the Havana National University). Later, Samford played games in Mexico City against the National University of Mexico (in 1954 and 1963).

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Random fact of no relevance whatsoever: Samford’s law school, Cumberland, was actually purchased from Cumberland University of Tennessee in 1961. That doesn’t happen very often; in fact, in terms of moving a law school across state lines, I’m not sure it has ever happened anywhere else.

I am aware of only two other law schools that shifted to different universities (both in-state) — the University of Puget Sound School of Law, which is now part of Seattle University; and the law school at the University of Bridgeport, in Connecticut, which is now affiliated with Quinnipiac University.

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As opposed to last week, for this post I won’t go through a lengthy list of FCS statistical categories, or update the status in them for other teams of interest. I’ll update those numbers every two or three weeks, though.

I will mention a few things that could have a significant bearing on this game, however.

– The first is time of possession. Not counting the Ivy League schools (each of which has only played one game so far), The Citadel still leads FCS in time of possession, at 36:58.

Samford is last in the sub-division, at 21:12. I believe the Cadet must maintain that type of advantage on Saturday to have a realistic chance of winning the game.

That said, SU is comfortable not having the ball for long stretches. Against Wofford, Samford only had the pigskin for 19:25, but still came away with a road victory.

– Among non-Ivy FCS squads, Samford is 4th in average yards per punt return. SU has returned 10 punts this season for a total of 201 yards. That 20.1 average is easily the best for any team with double digit returns.

– The Citadel is 9th overall in net punting. Samford, one of the many intercollegiate teams with an Australian punter (5’11”, 165 lb. Melbourne native Bradley Porcellato), is 26th nationally.

– Samford averages the third-fewest penalties per game in FCS. The Citadel is tied for 40th in that category.

– SU is 83rd nationally in rush yards allowed per play. The Citadel is 105th.

– As far as passing yards per attempt allowed is concerned, The Citadel is 92nd. The Baptist Tigers are 54th.

– Turnover margin: The Citadel is tied for 99th, while Samford is tied for 117th. Each team has only forced two defensive turnovers so far this season (both of SU’s came last week).

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A few select statistics from the last four years of Samford-The Citadel (the period in which Chris Hatcher has been the SU head coach):

Year Score Time of possession 3rd down conversions – The Citadel Big Plays – TC (20+ yards) Big Plays – SU (20+ yards) Yards/Rush – The Citadel
2015 44-25 35:15 6 of 14 5 4 5.9
2016 37-34 OT 38:17 11 for 21 6 3 6.0
2017 14-35 36:52 3 for 13 3 4 3.5
2018 42-27 35:01 9 for 16 6 2 5.9

I might argue the key stat in the table is yards per rush for The Citadel, which is inter-related with third down conversions. That also has an impact on time of possession and big plays. More possession means more plays, and more plays means an increased chance of breaking a long gainer.

In fact, The Citadel has not beaten Samford without averaging at least 5.5 yards per rush since 2010, when it won 13-12. The Cadets only averaged 2.7 yards per rush that afternoon, but prevailed in a defensive struggle. The Citadel scored its first touchdown on a blocked punt (by a noted master of the art, Milford Scott); its other TD was set up by a trick play (a pass by Luke Caldwell to Rickey Anderson that came off of a reverse).

Of note, Bill D’Ottavio has been Samford’s defensive coordinator for the last 13 years (under two different head coaches).

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The statistics that follow for Samford are from its last three games. I decided not to include stats from SU’s opener against Youngstown State, because the Crimson Bulldogs started a different quarterback in that contest.

SU lost that game to the Penguins, 45-22. Four turnovers bedeviled Chris Hatcher’s squad, which was also just 2 for 9 on third down conversion attempts.

However, Samford has definitely been a different team (at least offensively) since the insertion of junior Chris Oladokun as the starting QB.

Oladokun, a 6’2″, 195 lb. transfer from South Florida (he started three games for the Bulls last season), began his SU career in the fourth quarter against Youngstown State. The Tampa native completed his first seven passes for 125 yards and a touchdown (a 64-yarder on his second throw).

The three games included in the table below:

Samford totals Samford avg. Opponent totals Opponent avg.
Rushing yards 548 182.67 828 276
Rush attempts 103 34.33 157 52.33
Avg. Per Rush 5.32 5.27
Rushing TDs 6 2 8 2.67
Passing yards 876 292.0 571 190.3
Avg./Att. 9.62 6.34
Avg./Comp. 16.8 11.3
TDs 10 3.33 4 1.33
Total yards 1424 474.67 1399 466.33
Total plays 194 64.67 247 82.33
Avg./Play 7.34 5.66
Fumbles – Lost 2-0 3-0
Penalties – Yards 7 for 67 20 for 146
Time of possession
 22:07 37:53
3rd Down Conversions 15 of 33 24 of 56
4th Down Conversions 3 of 5 9 of 13
Sacks: Total – Yards 4 for 39 yards 5 for 31 yards

*sack yardage counted in passing statistics

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Yes, that 16.8 yards per completion number for Samford is accurate. Oladokun has thrown four passes of 64 yards or more, and has eight other completions of at least 30 yards.

When sack yardage is taken out of his totals, Oladokun is averaging 7.46 yards per rush. Two of his runs have gone for 30 or more yards. He leads the team in rushing yards and TDs (and in passing as well, obviously).

Incidentally, Oladokun (pronounced OLAH-doe-kin, according to Samford’s game notes) was the SoCon Offensive Player of the Week after each of those three games.

For the season, Oladokun is completing 65.6% of his passes, averaging an extremely impressive 10.16 yards per attempt (and that number does include sack yardage against). He has thrown 11 TD passes and been intercepted 4 times.

Not included in that table but worth mentioning: in the three referenced contests, Samford averaged running a play from scrimmage every 21.2 seconds. The Baptist Bears have been progressively faster on offense in each of the last three games — 24.6 seconds per play versus Tennessee Tech, 21.6 seconds per snap against Wofford, and just 18.8 seconds per play versus Alabama A&M.

Also not in the table, but certainly of importance: Samford has scored touchdowns on 10 of 14 times it has been in the Red Zone (this includes all four games).

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Offensive players for Samford (besides Oladokun) worth watching:

  • Montrell Washington (5’10”, 170 lbs.): A junior from Canton, Georgia, the wide receiver is averaging 23.6 yards per catch, including an 82-yard TD last week against Alabama A&M. He is also Samford’s primary punt returner, and had a 49-yard runback versus Alabama A&M.
  • Chris Shelling (5’8″, 173 lbs.): Last year against The Citadel, the Lawrenceville, Georgia native had 8 receptions for 82 yards. This season, the senior leads SU in receptions with 15. He had 185 receiving yards, including a 64-yard touchdown, against Tennessee Tech.
  • Robert Adams (6’2″, 190 lbs.): Adams ranks second on the team in receptions this season, with 14. The senior from Montgomery has made one reception of 30+ yards in three of Samford’s four games this year.
  • Nick Nixon (6’6″, 282 lbs.): Samford’s starting left tackle, Nixon was a preseason All-SoCon selection. He is a senior from Hendersonville, Tennessee.

Samford’s projected starters on the offensive line average 6’6″, 309 lbs. They are large.

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Under Bill D’Ottavio, Samford has traditionally employed a “bear” front against the triple option attack. Given the linemen at his disposal, I suspect the matchup this Saturday will not be any different in that respect.

Defensive stalwarts for SU include:

  • Justin Foster (6’4″, 286 lbs.): A preseason All-SoCon choice, the defensive tackle is a senior from Anniston, Alabama. He could be a key player in the battle between The Citadel’s o-line and Samford’s defensive front.
  • Nelson Jordan (6’2″, 253 lbs.): Another lineman who was a preseason all-league pick, Jordan is a sophomore from Starkville, Mississippi. Although not listed as a starter on Samford’s two-deep, I would expect Jordan to get plenty of reps on Saturday. He had nine tackles (including a sack) versus The Citadel last season.
  • John Staton (6’1″, 215 lbs.): The middle linebacker currently leads Samford in tackles, with 46. Staton is a junior from Atlanta.
  • Nathan East (6’2″, 221 lbs.): A sophomore from McCalla, Alabama, East ranks second on the team in tackles, with 35. He plays alongside Staton as one of SU’s three starting linebackers.
  • Nick Barton (5’10”, 196 lbs.): Barton intercepted a pass last week. The senior strong safety from Brentwood, Tennessee has been credited with 17 tackles this season (tied for sixth on the squad). Barton said at Samford’s weekly presser that Saturday will be “one of the most predictable games we’ll have all year…we know what they’re going to do, and they know what we’re going to do.”
  • Ty Herring (6’2″, 203 lbs.): Herring, a junior from Fernandina, Florida, starts at free safety for the Crimson Bulldogs. He is fourth on the team in tackles. Last week against Alabama A&M, Herring returned an interception 95 yards for a touchdown.

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Samford’s placekicker is preseason all-conference pick Mitchell Fineran (5’10”, 183 lbs.). The sophomore from Fort Valley, Georgia has yet to miss a kick so far this season, converting all five of his field goal attempts and going 19 for 19 on PATs.

Last season, Fineran was 13 for 17 on field goal tries, with a long of 46 yards. He did not miss an extra point. Fineran is also Samford’s kickoff specialist.

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Odds and ends:

– The weather forecast for Saturday at Samford, per the National Weather Service: mostly sunny, with a high of 95 degrees.

– Per one source that deals in such matters, Samford (as of Wednesday evening) is a 2 1/2 point favorite over The Citadel, with an over/under of 63.

When the line opened on Monday night, Samford was a 4-point favorite.

– Other lines involving SoCon teams: Furman is a 17-point favorite over East Tennessee State; Wofford is an 11 1/2 point favorite at VMI; Chattanooga is a 6 1/2 point favorite versus Western Carolina; and Mercer is a 6 1/2 point favorite over Mercer.

– Also of note: James Madison is a 13-point favorite at Elon, and Towson is a 35 1/2 point underdog at Florida.

After a week off to recover from its loss to The Citadel, Georgia Tech travels to Temple, with the Yellow Jackets a 5 1/2 point underdog.

Charleston Southern is another team that is getting time to mend after a defeat at the hands of the Bulldogs. The Buccaneers are back in action next week, against Savannah State.

The biggest betting favorite in the FCS ranks is Kennesaw State, a 30 1/2 point favorite over Reinhardt, an NAIA school. Among matches between FCS teams, the biggest spread is 27 1/2, with North Carolina A&T favored over Delaware State.

– Massey Ratings: The Citadel is ranked 33rd in FCS (down four spots from last week), while Samford is 43rd.

Massey projects the Cadets to have a 46% chance of winning, with a predicted final score of Samford 34, The Citadel 31.

The top five teams in Massey’s FCS rankings this week:  North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Princeton, James Madison, Dartmouth.

Other rankings this week of varied interest: Towson is 12th, Youngstown State 13th, Kennesaw State 22nd, Jacksonville State 25th, Elon 28th, Furman 29th, North Carolina A&T 34th, William & Mary 42nd, San Diego 48th, Wofford 56th, Chattanooga 63rd, Tennessee Tech 64th, South Carolina State 71st, Mercer 75th, East Tennessee State 78th, Campbell 90th, Charleston Southern 92nd, VMI 93rd, Alabama A&M 96th, Western Carolina 97th, Davidson 107th, Gardner-Webb 108th, Robert Morris 117th, Butler 125th, and Presbyterian 126th (last).

– Samford’s notable alumni include actor Tony Hale (of Veep and Arrested Development fame, though to be honest I know him best from an episode of Psych); actress and groundbreaking television producer Gail Patrick (who helmed the Perry Mason TV series); and Pulitzer Prize-winning newspaper editor/publisher Harold E. Martin.

Martin also had an association with another SoCon school, VMI. He endowed a scholarship there in memory of his son, a student at the military school who was killed in an automobile accident his senior year.

– SU’s roster includes more players from Georgia (43) than Alabama (37). Other states represented: Florida (17 players), Tennessee (9), Mississippi (6), Louisiana (2), and one each from North Carolina, New Mexico, Ohio, Indiana, and Missouri.

As mentioned earlier, punter Bradley Porcellato is from Melbourne, Australia.

No member of Samford’s team is from South Carolina, and thus none can claim to be an alumnus of Orangeburg-Wilkinson High School. The lack of players from the fabled football factory will unquestionably come back to haunt Chris Hatcher and his cabal of coaches. Why the SU staff would continually ignore the undeniable talent that has worn the famed maroon and orange is simply beyond comprehension.

– The Citadel’s geographic roster breakdown (per the school’s website) is as follows: South Carolina (53 players), Georgia (29), Florida (8), Texas (5), North Carolina (3), Pennsylvania (3), Alabama (2), New York (2), and one each from Virginia, Nebraska, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Ohio, and Kentucky.

In addition, there are two Bulldogs with listed hometowns in other countries — junior tight end Elijah Lowe (Abaco, Bahamas), and freshman linebacker Hayden Williamson (Okinawa, Japan).

– This week’s two-deep includes a few changes from the previous depth chart. Sam Llewellyn is on the two-deep at A-back, while on defense Sean-Thomas Faulkner has been moved to the “Sam” linebacker spot. Destin Mack takes over as the starting strong safety.

– The Citadel has an all-time record of 5-5 for games played on September 28. Highlights include:

  • 1912: The Citadel defeated Fort Moultrie (official score: 1-0) after the soldiers forfeited the game in the fourth quarter with the score tied at 13 and a PAT for The Citadel pending. There was a suggestion that the Cadets had scored the tying TD thanks in part to fan interference. I wrote about this contest back in June, including this quote from the game story in the Charleston Evening Post:

[On] Saturday afternoon, at Hampton Park, despite the protests of the police and other officials, it proved a hard matter for bashful spectators to tell whether the enthusiastic rooters or the elevens from The Citadel and Fort Moultrie were playing the game. This deplorable state of affairs was the cause of the boys from the island forfeiting the game with a technical score of 1-0 in favor of the Cadets, in the beginning of the fourth quarter. Practically every spectator present appointed himself a field judge, and proceeded to interfere with the players throughout the game, in the meantime taxing his lungs in an endeavor to announce decisions to the State at large.

  • 1929: The Bulldogs whipped Newberry 59-0, the largest margin of victory for The Citadel in 16 years. There were 2,000 fans in attendance at (original) Johnson Hagood Stadium. A total of 36 players saw action for the victors, which is actually one more player than saw the field for The Citadel two weeks ago against Georgia Tech. Among those scoring touchdowns for the Bulldogs: Tom “Pop” Wilson, Ed McIntosh, Tom Appleby, Dalton Brasington, Cary Metz, and Julius “Runt” Gray (a 140 lb. quarterback; even social media superstar Joshua Roides weighs more than that). The Citadel had 407 total yards of offense, while Newberry finished with just 47 yards from scrimmage.
  • 1946: The first intercollegiate football game in Charleston in almost four years resulted in a 7-6 victory for The Citadel over Presbyterian. The Bulldogs trailed until midway through the fourth quarter, when Charlie Watson scored from one yard out. Bill Henderson’s PAT was true, and a crowd of 6,500 went home happy. The winning touchdown drive was set up by a punt return by Luke Dunfee; in the rematch one year later, Dunfee would return the opening kickoff 98 yards for a TD against the Blue Hose to set up another Bulldogs triumph.
  • 1963: In poor conditions on a very rainy day in North Carolina, The Citadel muddied up Davidson, 28-6. Joe Cannarella completed his first pass as a Bulldog, and it went for a touchdown to Wes Matthews. Other scorers for the Cadets: Converse Chellis, Nick DiLoreto, Dennis Vincent (all with TDs), and Pat Green (four PATs). The defense held Davidson to just five first downs.
  • 1968: The Citadel beat Lehigh, 28-12, behind 142 yards rushing and two touchdowns by Jim McMillan. The Bulldogs also scored on a TD pass from Tony Passander to tight end John Griest. All four PATs were converted by Jim Gahagan. The Bulldogs’ defense forced three turnovers, two fumbles and an interception by Jackie Zorn.

—

This has been a somewhat odd series in recent years. I don’t know how else to describe it. The Citadel has had a bit of the upper hand in recent meetings, though it has not always been immediately apparent as to why that was the case.

Samford has blown sizable leads in both of the last two games played at Johnson Hagood Stadium. However, any weird karma from having to play in Charleston won’t apply on Saturday, since the game is in Alabama. In the last matchup at Seibert Stadium, SU dominated the first half and coasted from there.

Four years ago, The Citadel whipped Samford so thoroughly that new SU head coach Chris Hatcher felt compelled to turn to a freshman backup quarterback named Devlin Hodges. It proved to be a good move, although a bit too late for that particular encounter.

As for this Saturday’s contest, both teams should be energized after winning their last two games. Both have good wins to look to for inspiration. In Chris Oladokun, Samford has found a potential talisman at quarterback; Brent Thompson has compared him to Tom Flacco. That is not good news for The Citadel.

However, the Cadets have improved on defense every week. The potential return of Brandon Rainey at quarterback should be a shot in the arm for the offense, too, and Rainey helped lead the comeback victory over Samford last year (with 217 rushing yards and a fine passing day as well).

It should be an intriguing game. I hope it is a productive and successful one for The Citadel.

 

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Ruminating about ratings — 2019 preseason numbers for The Citadel, SoCon, FCS, and more

Posted on August 11, 2019 by Sandlapper Spike

Recent posts about football at The Citadel:

– “Advanced” statistics from The Citadel’s 2018 football season

– Inside the Numbers, Part 1: The Citadel’s 2018 run/pass tendencies and yards per play statistics, with SoCon/FCS discussion as well

– Inside the Numbers, Part 2: The Citadel’s 2018 4th down decision-making, plus Red Zone stats, 3rd down conversion info, etc.

– Football attendance at The Citadel (and elsewhere) — an annual review

– 2019 preseason rankings and ratings, featuring The Citadel and the rest of the SoCon

– During the 2019 football season, which teams will the Bulldogs’ opponents play before (and after) facing The Citadel?

– Homecoming at The Citadel — a brief gridiron history

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Other links of interest:

– Cam Jackson, playing American football in Turkey (and enjoying dessert)

– Brandon Rainey talks about the upcoming season, and about closure

– Dante Smith had a very good game against Alabama; is ready to have even more very good games this season

– Bulldogs hold first scrimmage in the heat of Charleston

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Usually, I discuss the Massey Ratings at the same time that I write about the preseason rankings from the various college football magazines. This year, because the ratings came out a little later, I decided to have two posts, one for rankings (which can be read here) and one for ratings.

I’m going to also briefly delve into several other preseason computer ratings for FCS teams. There will be a table!

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For several years now, I’ve been incorporating the Massey Ratings into my game previews. For those not entirely familiar with this ratings system, here is an explanation:

The Massey Ratings are designed to measure past performance, not necessarily to predict future outcomes…overall team rating is a merit based quantity, and is the result of applying a Bayesian win-loss correction to the power rating.

…In contrast to the overall rating, the Power is a better measure of potential and is less concerned with actual wins-losses.

…A team’s Offense power rating essentially measures the ability to score points. This does not distinguish how points are scored, so good defensive play that leads to scoring will be reflected in the Offense rating. In general, the offensive rating can be interpreted as the number of points a team would be expected to score against an average defense.

Similarly, a team’s Defense power rating reflects the ability to prevent its opponent from scoring. An average defense will be rated at zero. Positive or negative defensive ratings would respectively lower or raise the opponent’s expected score accordingly.

…the Massey model will in some sense minimize the unexplained error (noise). Upsets will occur and it is impossible (and also counter-productive) to get an exact fit to the actual game outcomes. Hence, I publish an estimated standard deviation. About 68% of observed game results will fall within one standard deviation of the expected (“average”) result.

…Preseason ratings are typically derived as a weighted average of previous years’ final ratings. As the current season progresses, their effect gets damped out completely. The only purpose preseason ratings serve is to provide a reasonable starting point for the computer. Mathematically, they guarantee a unique solution to the equations early in the season when not enough data is available yet.

As I’ve mentioned before, Massey has ratings for almost every college football team — not just FBS and FCS squads, but D-2, D-3, NAIA, junior colleges, and Canadian schools. This season, there are preseason ratings for 927 colleges and universities in the United States and Canada, from Clemson (#1) to Vermilion Community College (#927).

Vermilion is located in Ely, Minnesota. The Ironmen were 1-7 last season (1-5 in the Minnesota College Athletic Conference).

This year, The Citadel is #176 overall in the preseason ratings. In previous campaigns, the Bulldogs had overall preseason rankings of 218 (in 2018), 130 (2017), 113 (2016) and 174 (2015).

The teams on The Citadel’s 2019 schedule are ranked in the ratings as follows (with the chances of a Bulldogs victory in parenthesis):

  • Towson: 151 (45%)
  • Elon: 161 (36%)
  • Georgia Tech: 54 (3%)
  • Charleston Southern: 245 (86%)
  • Samford: 148 (32%)
  • VMI: 249 (85%)
  • Western Carolina: 220 (75%)
  • Furman: 153 (34%)
  • Mercer: 181 (58%)
  • East Tennessee State: 192 (50%)
  • Chattanooga: 183 (47%)
  • Wofford: 138 (39%)

Going by the ratings, a Massey preseason poll for the SoCon would look like this:

1 – Wofford
2 – Samford
3 – Furman
4 – The Citadel
5 – Mercer
6 – Chattanooga
7 – East Tennessee State
8 – Western Carolina
9 – VMI

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Massey’s FCS-only rankings (ratings) for select schools:

  • North Dakota State – 1
  • South Dakota State – 2
  • Eastern Washington – 3
  • Princeton – 4
  • Dartmouth – 5
  • UC Davis – 6
  • James Madison – 7
  • Northern Iowa – 8
  • Illinois State – 9
  • Weber State – 10
  • Colgate – 11
  • Harvard – 15
  • Kennesaw State – 19
  • Wofford – 21
  • Samford – 24
  • Towson – 26
  • Furman – 28
  • Elon – 33
  • Jacksonville State – 38
  • The Citadel – 46
  • Mercer – 49
  • Chattanooga – 51
  • North Carolina A&T – 54
  • East Tennessee State – 55
  • San Diego – 58
  • Duquesne – 59
  • Richmond – 61
  • Alcorn State – 70
  • Western Carolina – 75
  • Charleston Southern – 87
  • VMI – 91
  • South Carolina State – 94
  • Campbell – 96
  • North Alabama – 103
  • Gardner-Webb – 104
  • LIU – 110
  • Davidson – 114
  • Hampton – 117
  • Jacksonville – 118
  • Presbyterian – 122
  • Mississippi Valley State – 125
  • Merrimack -126

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In the “overall” category, some schools of note:

  • Clemson – 1
  • Alabama – 2
  • Georgia – 3
  • LSU – 4
  • Oklahoma – 5
  • Ohio State – 6
  • Notre Dame – 7
  • Florida – 8
  • Texas A&M – 9
  • Auburn – 10
  • Syracuse – 15
  • Texas – 16
  • Washington – 17
  • Missouri – 18
  • Kentucky – 19
  • UCF – 20
  • Fresno State – 25
  • North Dakota State – 26 (highest-rated FCS team)
  • Stanford – 27
  • South Carolina – 34
  • North Carolina State – 35
  • Virginia – 40
  • Wake Forest – 42
  • Miami (FL) – 44
  • Appalachian State – 47
  • Vanderbilt – 49
  • Army – 50
  • Georgia Tech – 54
  • Southern California – 56
  • Florida State – 59
  • Ohio – 66
  • Marshall – 71
  • Air Force – 79
  • Georgia Southern – 85
  • Navy – 98
  • North Texas – 99
  • Rutgers – 103
  • Oregon State – 116
  • Coastal Carolina – 127
  • Liberty – 131
  • Laval – 155 (highest-rated Canadian team)
  • Connecticut – 169
  • Ferris State – 174 (highest-rated D-2 team)
  • Rice – 179
  • Laney College – 184 (highest-rated junior college team)
  • UTEP – 191
  • Mary Hardin-Baylor – 227 (highest-rated D-3 team)
  • Morningside (IA) – 237 (highest-rated NAIA team)

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Of course, the Massey Ratings aren’t the only ratings out there. On his website, Massey himself lists 19 other services, some of which include FCS teams in their respective ratings. Not all of those have preseason ratings, however.

There appear to be five other ratings systems (on his list, anyway) that have updated preseason FCS ratings. I decided to create a table in order to compare the ratings (by rankings) of 17 different FCS schools — the nine SoCon institutions, along with The Citadel’s three non-conference FCS opponents this season (Towson, Elon, and Charleston Southern), two other instate schools (Presbyterian and South Carolina State), and three other solid programs in the league footprint (Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, and North Carolina A&T).

Like any good table, there is a key:

Drum roll…

The table (remember, these are rankings only for the 126 FCS teams; i.e., VMI is the preseason #91 team among all FCS squads in the Massey Ratings):

Team A B C D E F
The Citadel 46 24 43 36 39 59
VMI 91 111 114 107 106 120
Furman 28 33 20 25 27 32
Wofford 21 22 13 17 13 13
Chattanooga 51 49 54 42 33 43
ETSU 55 56 31 65 83 19
Samford 24 23 25 24 20 52
WCU 75 82 86 78 76 99
Mercer 49 54 56 48 41 67
Towson 26 29 11 28 18 23
Elon 33 36 24 40 38 26
Ch. Southern 87 83 62 74 97 62
Presbyterian 122 115 115 112 112 114
S.C. State 94 85 88 81 71 71
Kennesaw St. 19 5 7 9 15 8
N.C. A&T 54 37 18 37 53 11
Jacksonville St. 38 26 6 12 10 16

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While some teams have fairly small groupings in terms of rankings among the services (such as Furman, Wofford, and Presbyterian), others differ wildly (particularly East Tennessee State and North Carolina A&T).

I was perhaps most surprised by the generally solid rankings for Samford, which comes across as a borderline top 25 preseason pick in these ratings. That certainly isn’t how SU has been perceived in the various rankings that have been released this summer, either league or national.

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A few other things I’ll mention that aren’t reflected in the table:

– Entropy System’s preseason #1 FCS team isn’t North Dakota State, but South Dakota State. Hmm…

–  CSL included Virginia University of Lynchburg in its rankings. VUL is not an FCS school, but the computer program that put together the list may have thought it was, given that the Dragons play seven FCS opponents this season (Merrimack, Davidson, Mississippi Valley State, Prairie View A&M, Hampton, Southern, and Morgan State).

All of those games are on the road — in fact, the Dragons will play ten road games in 2019. VUL, a member of the National Christian Colleges Athletic Association (NCCAA), has two home games this year.

For the purposes of this post, I removed Virginia University of Lynchburg from the CSL Ratings, so that all the teams ranked were actually FCS squads.

– LIU, which will field an FCS team for the first time (having combined varsity programs at its two branch campuses), is ranked #22 by CSL, probably because the then-Pioneers (new nickname: Sharks!) were 10-1 in D-2 last season. Considering LIU did not play a Division I team last season, that high of a preseason ranking seems a bit dubious. We’ll know rather quickly just how dubious it is, as LIU opens its season at South Dakota State.

The overall situation with LIU is quite interesting. Basically, a D-2 varsity athletics program is being folded into an existing D-1 setup. Not everyone was happy about that decision.

College basketball fans may be familiar with the LIU Blackbirds, which made the NCAA tourney a few times and once played home games in the old Paramount Theater in Brooklyn. Now there are no Blackbirds, and no Pioneers (from the LIU-Post campus). Everyone is a blue-and-gold Shark.

LIU-Brooklyn didn’t have a football team, unlike LIU-Post. Thus, the D-2 football program is simply moving up to D-1 — but because it is going to be part of an already existing D-1 athletics program, it doesn’t have to go through a “transition” period and is immediately eligible to compete for the NEC title and an NCAA playoff berth.

– Steve Pugh is the creator/publisher of the “Compughter Ratings”. He has a master’s degree from Virginia Tech, as does Ken Massey. Apparently VT grad students spend most of their waking hours coming up with sports ratings systems.

– The Laz Index also rates Florida high school football teams. It has done so since 1999.

– Along with college football, the Born Power Index rates high school football teams in Pennsylvania and New Jersey — in fact, it was used last year by the New Jersey Interscholastic Athletic Association to rank playoff teams in that state.

This didn’t go over too well:

There has been a tremendous amount of criticism heaped on the NJSIAA for the new United Power Rankings.  A complicated formula that no one is 100 percent sure is accurate at any time, it basically breaks the ranking of teams into numbers – The Born Power Index and average power points.

The Born Power Index has been around since 1962, and is a mathematical rating system which somehow, determines how good a team is. Somehow, I say, because the formula is proprietary, and William Born, its creator, is not sharing with the public. That lack of transparency has a lot of people bothered.

The index will apparently not be a part of the “power ranking” for the New Jersey high school football playoffs this season.

– Five of the six ratings systems have Princeton in the top 7. The exception is the Compughter Ratings, which has the Tigers ranked 19th. On the other hand, fellow Ivy League school Dartmouth is ranked 12th by the Compughter Ratings.

Entropy has both Princeton and Dartmouth in the top 5, and Harvard ranked 14th among FCS schools. Massey also has Princeton and Dartmouth in the top 5; Harvard is 15th in that service.

Ivy League schools with high ratings (and rankings) are the norm for most of these college football ratings services. I think this is a bug, not a feature.

Personally, I find it difficult to justify ranking Princeton and Dartmouth in the top five, or even the top 20 for that matter. That said, the Tigers and Big Green might be very good.

However, the Ivy Leaguers’ lack of schedule connectivity with the vast majority of their FCS brethren — particularly the more highly-regarded teams — makes it all but impossible to compare those squads to the elite outfits in the sub-division. For example, in 2019 none of the Ivies will face a team from the MVFC, Big Sky, SoCon, Southland, OVC, Big South, or SWAC.

Here is a list of all the non-conference games played by Ivy League schools this season against teams ranked in the STATS preseason Top 25:

  • Dartmouth hosts #13 Colgate
  • Cornell hosts #13 Colgate
  • Penn is at #22 Delaware

Princeton has been the standard-bearer for the league in recent years. The Tigers host Lafayette and Butler, and travel to Bucknell. Those three teams were a combined 8-25 last season; this year, their respective preseason Massey rankings in FCS are 100, 112, and 108.

It is very hard to say that Princeton is one of the best FCS teams in the country when there is no practical way to demonstrate the validity of such a statement.

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At any rate, we’re getting even closer and closer to football season, which is all that really matters.

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