Schedule analysis: Which teams will The Citadel’s opponents face before playing the Bulldogs? What about afterwards? Sandwich games? Look-aheads?

Sometimes, the schedule works in your favor, and sometimes it doesn’t. For this post, I’m going to review the games teams play the week before facing The Citadel…and what they have lined up the following week…and well, a few other games along the way.

Are there “look ahead” games? What about “sandwich” games? Does anyone have a bye week before playing the Bulldogs?

Let’s check it out.

August 30 — North Dakota State at The Citadel, noon ET

It is the season opener for both teams, so there are obviously no games the week before for either squad. In last year’s finale, The Citadel rolled up 288 yards rushing against ACC champ Clemson, while North Dakota State won its final contest of the season by three points.

The week after facing The Citadel, NDSU is on the road again, heading to Nashville to take on Tennessee State. The Tigers made the playoffs last year, but have since lost head coach Eddie George (who took the Bowling Green job in the spring) and a sizable chunk of the postseason roster. At least one statistics maven has asserted that TSU ranks last in returning production among all FCS teams.

NDSU debuts at home on September 13 against Southeast Missouri State, then has a bye before beginning MVFC play on September 27 with a Homecoming matchup versus South Dakota (which defeated the Bison last year).

September 6 — The Citadel at Samford, 3:30 pm ET

Samford hosts West Georgia on Thursday, August 28, so SU will get two extra days of preparation before facing The Citadel in the league opener for both teams (and has the added benefit of staying at home). Don’t expect Samford to look past West Georgia, however, as the Wolves upset the Birmingham Bulldogs last season. That was actually WGU’s first game as an FCS team.

After playing The Citadel, Samford will travel to Waco for a matchup against Baylor and its highly regarded quarterback, Sawyer Robertson. That will be a very difficult road opener, and is the first of two straight games away from home for SU, which faces Western Carolina in Cullowhee on September 20.

Samford’s final road game of the year, by the way, is also against a Power 4 opponent from the state of Texas, as SU plays at Texas A&M on November 22.

September 13 — The Citadel at Gardner-Webb, 7:00 pm ET

Gardner-Webb has one of the tougher stretches to begin the year in all of FCS.

G-W opens at Western Carolina, which is ranked 18th in the Stats Perform Top 25 Preseason Poll. The Runnin’ Bulldogs then travel to Atlanta to face Georgia Tech, which was picked 4th in the ACC preseason poll.

That is the game Gardner-Webb will play before its matchup with The Citadel, and will be a stern test, though it is worth noting that the Yellow Jackets have a recent history of struggling against FCS opponents nicknamed Bulldogs.

The week after hosting The Citadel, Gardner-Webb has a second FBS game, making the trip up north to tangle with defending MAC champion Ohio.

After a bye week, G-W finally begins conference play on October 4 with a home game versus Charleston Southern. I’m mentioning this mostly because that game has recently been dubbed the “BBQ Bowl“:

The Runnin’ Bulldogs and the Buccaneers will compete annually for bragging rights and the North-South BBQ Trophy, which features a hefty hog adorned with a placard to engrave each year’s winning team and score.

Most importantly, the losing team will be tasked with supplying a barbecue feast to the winning side — North Carolina-style (Western BBQ, of course) or South Carolina-style, as chosen by the victors.

Presumably, the winning team will choose South Carolina-style BBQ, regardless of which squad wins the game.

September 20 — Mercer at The Citadel, 2:00 pm ET (Parents’ Weekend)

Mercer, the preseason SoCon favorite, has a fairly weird start to the season. The Bears will face UC Davis of the Big Sky in Week 0 (on August 23), playing in the FCS Kickoff game at the Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama. Both teams are ranked in the Stats Perform preseason poll (UC Davis is 8th, Mercer 11th). That game will be televised on ESPN at 7:00 pm ET, which won’t be bad at all in terms of exposure.

The following week, Mercer hosts Presbyterian. The Bears then have a bye week before beginning league play with a home game versus Wofford. The following week, Mercer travels to Charleston to face the Bulldogs.

After the game against The Citadel, Mercer stays on the road to play East Tennessee State before returning to Macon to meet Samford. Then, on October 11, Mercer plays Princeton in New Jersey, trying to become the second SoCon team to win at Powers Field. MU has a second bye after that game (getting an extra bye as a result of playing on Week 0).

September 27 — The Citadel at Chattanooga, 6:00 pm ET

Chattanooga has a tough schedule, kind of low-key in a way, but demanding nonetheless. The Mocs open the season at Memphis, and then play another road game at Tennessee Tech. The Golden Eagles won 7 games last year, including their last five, and are ranked #21 in the Stats Perform preseason poll.

After its home opener against Stetson, which should be a bit of a breather (but you never know), Chattanooga has another road game against a team ranked in the preseason poll, Tarleton State (#10). If you are unfamiliar with Tarleton State, don’t be too upset, as the Texans have only been in FCS since 2020. Despite just arriving in Division I, however, TSU’s power brokers already have designs on a spot in FBS.

Chattanooga hosts The Citadel the week following its game at Tarleton State. The Mocs then play at VMI, facing military schools in consecutive weeks, before a bye week that will probably be much-needed.

October 4 — Bye Week for The Citadel

The Citadel is the only SoCon team not playing on October 4.

Without the Bulldogs in the mix, what are your viewing options? It is hard to imagine watching football if The Citadel isn’t involved, so I would recommend making vacation plans of some kind, perhaps an overseas trip.

If you really insist on watching some pigskin, though, here is a list of some of the FBS games which will be played on October 4:

  • Miami (FL) at Florida State
  • Clemson at North Carolina
  • Vanderbilt at Alabama
  • Texas at Florida
  • Wisconsin at Michigan
  • Minnesota at Ohio State
  • Kansas State at Baylor
  • Texas Tech at Houston
  • Air Force at Navy
  • Boise State at Notre Dame

Among the teams also on a bye for the week: South Carolina, Auburn, LSU, Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi, Tennessee, Georgia Tech, Oregon, Southern California, Iowa, Arizona State, and Utah.

So yes, October 4 is a fairly popular bye week.

October 11 — Valdosta State at The Citadel, 2:00 pm ET (Hall of Fame Weekend/Military Appreciation Day)

I’m still not sure why The Citadel decided to schedule a non-conference game against last year’s Division II national runner-up; it just seems to me that if another home game was desired (laudable) and only non-D1 options were on the table (okay, whatever), settling on a mid-season game against a program as historically successful as the Blazers wasn’t really the way to go.

That was under the previous athletics administration, to be sure.

At any rate, Valdosta State (which has a new coach and a revamped roster) will face The Citadel after playing two straight home games. Following a bye week, VSU hosts UNC Pembroke on September 27, and then Lenoir-Rhyne the week before playing the Bulldogs. The Blazers shouldn’t be looking past either of those squads, particularly Lenoir-Rhyne, which won 10 games last season and made it to the second round of the D-2 playoffs.

That said, neither of those games is a conference matchup, as VSU hardly has any conference matchups. Due to a mass exodus of schools after last season, the Gulf South Conference only has four football-playing members for the 2025 campaign. As a result, Valdosta State won’t play a league contest until November 1 against West Alabama — its first of just three conference games.

Following its game against The Citadel, VSU will have another bye week before hosting North Greenville for Homecoming, its seventh (and final) non-conference matchup of the season.

October 18 — Western Carolina at The Citadel, 2:00 pm ET

I mentioned earlier that Western Carolina opens its season by hosting Gardner-Webb. The next week, WCU plays at Wake Forest in one of the more interesting FCS-over-FBS possibilities on the September slate.

The Catamounts also have non-conference games in September against Elon (at home) and Campbell (on the road).

Prior to its matchup at The Citadel, Western Carolina hosts Furman. In fact, WCU will play all three South Carolina-based SoCon schools in consecutive weeks, as the Catamounts are at Wofford the week before facing the Paladins.

Following the game versus the Bulldogs, WCU has a bye week, and then finishes the regular-season campaign with contests against Chattanooga, Mercer, East Tennessee State, and VMI (the first and last of those being road games).

October 25 — The Citadel at Furman, 2:00 pm ET

This matchup will be Furman’s Homecoming game, though FU will still have two home contests remaining after the contest. The Paladins are at Wofford the week before facing The Citadel, and host Mercer the week afterwards.

Furman then travels to Chattanooga before playing its final game at Paladin Stadium, this time against VMI. The Paladins finish the regular season at Clemson.

Furman’s bye week this year is rather early (September 20), so it will play nine straight weeks to close the campaign — eight consecutive league contests before the finale in Death Valley.

The Paladins have three non-conference games besides the Clemson matchup, and they are also Furman’s first three contests of the season. FU has home games versus William & Mary and Presbyterian and a road trip to play Campbell.

November 1 — VMI at The Citadel, 2:00 pm ET (Military Classic of the South)

The Keydets open the season with all four of their non-conference games, three of which are on the road (Navy, Bucknell, and Richmond). VMI’s one non-league home contest is a matchup with Ferrum (a D2 school). It then enjoys a bye week on September 27 before beginning SoCon action.

VMI’s game against The Citadel is the second of two straight road contests for the Keydets. The week before playing the Bulldogs, VMI travels to Mercer.

The following week is Military Appreciation Day in Lexington, Virginia, and the Keydets are hosting Wofford. They will then play at Furman, another instance of a team playing three consecutive matchups against the SoCon’s Palmetto State trio.

VMI will then conclude regular-season play with a home game versus Western Carolina.

November 8 — The Citadel at Mississippi, 1:00 pm ET

As mentioned above, Mississippi has a bye week on October 4, just like The Citadel.

Mississippi’s other three non-conference games are against Georgia State (the season opener), Tulane, and Washington State. All of those are also in Oxford. Mississippi thus has eight home games this season, including three of its last four regular-season contests.

Oh, but that closing stretch. The Citadel is a “sandwich” game for the Rebels, with Mississippi hosting South Carolina the week before and Florida the week afterwards. Following the game against the Gators, the Rebels have another bye week before facing Mississippi State in Starkville in the Egg Bowl.

Prior to that home game versus the Gamecocks, Mississippi has two road games — at Georgia and at Oklahoma.

November 15 — Wofford at The Citadel, 2:00 pm ET (Homecoming)

Wofford opens the season in Orangeburg against South Carolina State, and then hosts Richmond. After beginning SoCon play the following week at Mercer, the Terriers make the journey to Blacksburg to face Virginia Tech (the Mike Young Invitational).

All of Wofford’s games after its September 27 bye week are league affairs except one, an October 11 matchup against Michael Vick’s Norfolk State squad (kind of a Virginia Tech theme here). That game is Homecoming for the Terriers.

Before facing The Citadel, Wofford travels to VMI, so the Terriers get the military schools back-to-back. After playing the Bulldogs, Wofford finishes the regular season with a home game versus Chattanooga.

November 22 — The Citadel at East Tennessee State, 1:00 pm ET

The Buccaneers start the season with four non-conference games, hosting Murray State in the opener before making the trek to Knoxville to do battle with Tennessee. ETSU then plays at West Georgia before a home game versus Elon.

East Tennessee State has a late bye week, not taking a break until November 1; the week before, it has a Homecoming game versus Wofford.

ETSU then finishes the regular season with two road games against Samford and Western Carolina before hosting The Citadel.

There you have it. None of The Citadel’s opponents has a bye week before playing The Citadel, though Samford does have those aforementioned two extra days of prep because its opener is on a Thursday.

On the other side of the equation, the Bulldogs’ one “rest” advantage is against a non-conference opponent, so none of its SoCon competitors are affected.

Two of The Citadel’s opponents have a bye week after playing the Bulldogs — Valdosta State and Western Carolina.

The Citadel has two home games against teams that play a road game before facing the Bulldogs at Johnson Hagood Stadium — VMI and Wofford.

The Bulldogs face two squads that play at home before also hosting The Citadel — Samford and Mississippi.

Basically, there are no real scheduling breaks in either direction. It is just a very tough slate.

Football attendance review: Johnson Hagood Stadium, the SoCon, and FCS in general

This post is primarily about home attendance at The Citadel, which is a subject I’ve written about many, many times over the years. My first post on the subject was in 2009. What can I say, I’m old.

I used to write about attendance every single year, but then 2020 happened and, well…

The first part of this post is a bit of a cut-and-paste job from previous writeups on this topic, along with new and updated information. I’ve updated the original spreadsheet, and also included some new spreadsheets for the SoCon, along with a brief review of FCS as a whole.

Here is a spreadsheet that includes attendance information for The Citadel at Johnson Hagood Stadium:

Annual attendance at Johnson Hagood Stadium, 1964-2024

The spreadsheet tracks attendance for The Citadel’s home football games and has now been updated to include games through the 2024 season. It lists year-by-year totals and average game attendance, and the win/loss record for the Bulldogs in each season. There is also a category ranking the years by average attendance.

I have also included home win/loss records for each season.

The 2020 season includes the four games played in the fall of 2020 (one of which was at home) and the eight contests played in the spring of 2021 (four of which took place at JHS). The games referenced on the spreadsheet for the 2021 campaign are only those that were played in the fall (technically some of them took place in late summer, but you know what I mean).

Other columns refer to the program’s winning percentage over a two-year, three-year, five-year, and ten-year period, with the “current” season being the final year in each category. For example, the three-year winning percentage for 1970 (54.84%) is made up of the 1968, 1969, and 1970 seasons.

I include those categories mainly to see what impact, if any, constant winning (or losing) has had on long-term attendance trends.

I have also compared average attendance for the first two games of a season to the last two contests of the same campaign, going back to the 2009 season. There are inherent sample-size issues when making such a comparison (weather, stadium construction [or deconstruction], opponent fan base, etc.), but it doesn’t hurt to see how things have shaken out. The fall 2020/spring 2021 sort-of-season is not included below, for obvious reasons.

  • 2009 [4-7 overall record]; First two home games, average attendance of 13,636; final two home games, average attendance of 11,736 (including Homecoming)
  • 2010 [3-8 overall record]; First two home games, average attendance of 10,904; final two home games, average attendance of 11,805 (including Homecoming)
  • 2011 [4-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 12,756; final two home games, average attendance of 12,387 (including Homecoming)
  • 2012 [7-4 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 13,281; final two home games, average attendance of 13,715 (including Homecoming)
  • 2013 [5-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 13,370; final two home games, average attendance of 12,948 (including Homecoming)
  • 2014 [5-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 9,700; final two home games, average attendance of 9,563 (including Homecoming)
  • 2015 [9-4 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 8,356; final two home games, average attendance of 12,465 (including Homecoming)
  • 2016 [10-2 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 13,299; final two regular-season home games, average attendance of 13,996 (including Homecoming); playoff game attendance of 10,336
  • 2017 [5-6 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 8,718; final two home games, average attendance of 9,496 (including Homecoming)
  • 2018 [5-6 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 9,559; final two home games, average attendance of 9,511 (including Homecoming and a rescheduled game)
  • 2019 [6-6 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 8,517; final two home games, average attendance of 9,141 (including Homecoming)
  • 2021 [4-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 9,503; final two home games, average attendance of 10,189 (including Homecoming)
  • 2022 [4-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 10,339 (including Parents’ Day); final two home games, average attendance of 10,022 (including Homecoming and a game against a non-NCAA/NAIA opponent)
  • 2023 [0-11 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 10,882 (including Parents’ Day); final two home games, average attendance of 11,016 (including Homecoming)
  • 2024: [5-7 overall record]: First two home games, average attendance of 9,723; final two home games, average attendance of 10,745 (including Homecoming)

Since 1964, the Bulldogs’ record at Johnson Hagood Stadium is 200-139 (59.0%). The average home attendance over that time period is 13,492. However, there has not been a season in which home attendance averaged more than 13,492 since 2012.

The current stadium capacity is less than 12,000, due to the demolition of the East stands in the spring of 2017. Thus, The Citadel will not see an increase in attendance to the levels of the early part of this century anytime in the near future (and if Charleston’s Board of Architectural Review, heavily influenced by NIMBY-ism, continues to hold up the process, the school might not get to replace the East stands until the sun turns red).

The higher attendance figures for the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s are even further out of sight.

Last year’s average home attendance of 10,225 ranked 52nd out of the 61 seasons included in this survey. The five lowest season averages in attendance have all occurred since 2014.

As always, I need to point out that the cutoff for accuracy in attendance numbers means years like 1959 (eight wins), 1960 (Tangerine Bowl victory), and 1961 (SoCon title) cannot be included for comparison in this review, not to mention any of the other years from 1948, when the most recent iteration of Johnson Hagood Stadium opened, through the 1963 season. I do not have a high degree of confidence in any “public” season attendance figures prior to 1964. ( A few skeptics might suggest I shouldn’t have a large amount of confidence in some of the numbers post-1964, either.)

It is generally accepted that the largest home attendance for The Citadel at any pre-1964 contest was for the Homecoming game against Clemson in 1948, when an estimated 16,000 fans were present for the dedication of the “new” Johnson Hagood Stadium. It is likely that more than twenty years passed before the stadium had a game attendance higher than that (when 19,276 fans attended the home opener in 1969, a 14-10 victory for Red Parker’s Bulldogs over Arkansas State).

Here are the top average attendance marks over two-year, three-year, five-year, and ten-year periods:

  • Two years: 1975-76 (18,250). Rest of the top five: 1991-92, 1979-80, 1990-91, 1989-90
  • Three years: 1990-92 (17,457). Rest of the top five: 1989-91, 1978-80, 1991-93, 1975-77
  • Five years: 1988-92 (17,126). Rest of the top five: 1989-93, 1975-79, 1976-80, 1990-94
  • Ten years: 1975-84 (16,250). Rest of the top five: 1983-92, 1974-83, 1976-85, 1984-93

Average attendance by decade:

  • 1964-69: 11,998
  • 1970-79: 15,053
  • 1980-89: 15,398
  • 1990-99: 14,955
  • 2000-09: 13,850
  • 2010-19: 11,179
  • 2020-24: 8,910

The 2020-24 period includes the 2020-21 home games. If those are discounted (as they probably should be for this exercise), the average attendance so far this decade is 10,254.

I’ll throw in this spreadsheet as well, which charts Homecoming games at The Citadel since the first such contest in 1924. It includes attendance for all but three of those games (and every game since 1960), so it is somewhat applicable for this post.

Since 1960, The Citadel has had at least 10,000 fans in attendance for Homecoming for every game except one (8,500 for a matchup against Furman in 1965). The record for Homecoming attendance is 21,811, set in 1992 when the Bulldogs played VMI.

Homecoming at The Citadel, 1924-2024

Now let’s take a look at the SoCon.

Here is a spreadsheet that lists the attendance numbers for all SoCon games (conference matchups only) in 2024:

2024 SoCon attendance (league games only)

(The formatting might not be ideal, but it gets the job done; at least, I hope it does.)

Last season, Chattanooga was the top overall road draw in league play. In four road games, the Mocs played before crowds averaging 10,293. Those numbers were buoyed by the location of those four contests, with the host schools being The Citadel, Furman, ETSU, and Western Carolina. Those four ranked 1-2-4-5 in home attendance for conference games.

Conversely, Mercer ranked last as a road draw, with an average of 4,171.5 fans, thanks almost entirely to playing away from home against Chattanooga, VMI, Samford, and Wofford, the four schools that made up the bottom half of the league in conference home attendance (with the Terriers bringing up the rear with an average of 3,589 fans per league matchup).

In 2022, Chattanooga played the same four teams on the road, and was the league’s road draw leader. That same year, Mercer was last as a road draw, playing the same four opponents as it did last season. In other words, the numbers probably say more about the teams they played than the Mocs and Bears.

There are a couple of things to note for 2024. Two games are not part of the home league attendance totals, due to the impact of Hurricane Helene. Furman’s home game against Samford was postponed and ultimately canceled, while Western Carolina’s home matchup versus Wofford was played before no fans (due to ongoing rescue and recovery efforts in that region).

The highest-attended league game in 2024 was Western Carolina’s home finale against VMI, with 13,022 spectators.

The lowest-attended league game (not counting the Wofford-WCU matchup referenced earlier) was, by far, Wofford’s home game versus Mercer on September 28, with an announced attendance of 1,219. Both teams were ranked at the time, and the box score listed the weather as “sunny”.

[Edit: a comment for this post alerted me to the fact that Mercer-Wofford was yet another game affected by Hurricane Helene. The surrounding area was mostly without power, traffic lights were down, and there were long lines for gasoline as well. We’ll give the Wofford community a mulligan for that one.]

The attendance for some of these games, particular those at Wofford, inspired me to compile another chart, this one listing attendance for The Citadel’s road matchups against current SoCon schools. I decided to start with the 1997 season, which was Wofford’s first as a league member (and was also the first year Chattanooga played in Finley Stadium).

Road attendance in The Citadel’s games against current SoCon schools, 1997-2024

The above spreadsheet doesn’t feature all of the Bulldogs’ league road games over that time period, of course, as it doesn’t include former SoCon members Appalachian State, Elon, Georgia Southern, and Marshall. It also lists games at VMI when that school was not in the conference.

Some of these totals have been fairly consistent over time (the games at VMI, for example), but there has been variance over the years, and there has also been a decline in attendance in some places. The last two games the Bulldogs have played against Wofford have been noteworthy in that regard.

I’m not sure what to make of that, particularly when The Citadel has been the best “traveling” fan base in the SoCon over the last decade and a half (a subject I wrote about a few years ago). How much of that has to do with The Citadel? What about the home support?

Perhaps it just comes down to philosophical changes in how to count attendance by certain school administrations. The long-term effect of COVID-19 probably needs to be considered, as well, at least when it comes to how people now allocate leisure time. I have to wonder if there is a difference between FBS and FCS in that respect — but to be honest, I don’t really have any idea.

In 2016, the SoCon average attendance (all home games, league and out-of-conference) was 8,386. Last season, it was 8,169. That isn’t a big difference, so alarm bells shouldn’t be going off around the league. It is something worth monitoring, though.

Finally, a brief look at FCS attendance. I wrote a lot on this subject two years ago. I’m not going over all that ground again, but I would like to make a few observations about the 2024 campaign from an attendance perspective.

Here is a spreadsheet that includes FCS home attendance for 2024:

FCS home attendance 2024

There are various columns on that spreadsheet besides the breakdown of 2024 attendance. I also included a column for 2023 average attendance, the average attendance for the 2012-2022 period (excluding fall 2020/spring 2021, and only listing the schools that were continuously in the subdivision during that time frame), and columns comparing the differential between attendance for 2012-2022 and the last two seasons.

Jackson State and Montana were 1-2 in attendance in 2024. Those two schools have occupied the top two places for most of the last decade.

The list includes two schools no longer in FCS as of 2025 (Delaware and Missouri State) and several schools that are recent entrants in the subdivision.

There were 25 FCS schools that averaged over 10,000 in home attendance last season. Of those, according to the participation release from the College Sports Commission, all opted in to the House settlement except for Holy Cross, Harvard, The Citadel, Idaho, and UC Davis.

On the other hand, 15 FCS schools averaged fewer than 2,500 fans per home game, with subdivision debutant Mercyhurst bringing up the rear (1,183 per game in four home contests).

Okay, I think that is enough about attendance for now. Soon, there will be 2025 attendance figures to discuss…

A quick review of The Citadel-VMI

Advanced stats from The Military Classic of the South, though the game itself was not exactly a classic:

  The Citadel VMI
Starting Field Position Average 27.00 33.25
Offensive Success Rate 29.4% 36.1%
Big plays (20+ yards) 2 2
Finishing drives inside 40 (average points) 3.0 2.0
Turnovers 2 0
Expected turnovers 1.50 1.66
Possessions 11 12
Points per possession 1.18 0.83
Offensive Plays 51 61
Offensive rush play % 80.39% 54.10%
Yards/rush (sack-adjusted) 3.20 3.39
Yards/pass attempt (sack-adjusted) 6.40 4.11
Yards/play 3.73 3.72
3rd down conversions 0.00% (0-11) 14.28% (2-14)
4th down conversions 2 of 3 1 of 3
Red Zone TD% 0.0% 50.0%
Net punting 41.8 39.4
Time of possession 30:17 29:43
TOP/offensive play 34.28 seconds 29.23 seconds
Penalties 4 for 48 yards 7 for 51 yards
1st down passing 2/4, 53 yards (1 TD) 5/6, two sacks (44 net yards)
3rd and long passing 1/1, 4 sacks (-14 net yards) 3/7, 2 sacks (29 net yards)
4th down passing 0/0 0/1
1st down yards/play 5.65 4.65
3rd down average yards to go 6.00 8.57
Defensive 3-and-outs+ 4 (of 12) 7 (of 11)

Housekeeping regarding the above stats:

  • The Citadel’s final possession (a two-play kneel-down) is not included in any of the categories, except for time of possession and TOP/offensive play.
  • VMI was 1 for 3 on 4th down, but that does not include a 4th down attempt that was converted due to a pass interference penalty (the play which preceded the critical goal-line stand by the Bulldogs’ D).
  • VMI’s final play of the first half advanced the football inside The Citadel’s 40-yard line, but the Keydets had no time left to run another play; thus, that does not count as a possession inside the 40.
  • The Citadel was 2 for 3 on 4th down, per actual and advanced statistics, but that includes the bizarre play when punter James Platte was ruled to have been down before getting the punt off. The ruling came from the replay review booth and was, to put it politely, not well communicated to the press or public. That play is not reflected in the net punting category (since it wound up not being a punt), but was a de facto turnover (if not a technical one); it did result in part of VMI’s significant advantage in starting field position.

Very random observations:

– The Bulldogs’ defense played well. There were a few missed tackles, and The Citadel was unable to force a turnover (though the Keydets actually had a higher expected TO rate for the game than the Bulldogs), but on the whole it is hard to find much to complain about on that side of the ball.

Ten tackles for loss (including four sacks), only two big plays given up, less than one point allowed per possession. That will work more often than not.

– The defensive stand when VMI was up 10-6 and had first-and-goal on the Bulldogs’ 2-yard line was massive. It was arguably the pivotal point of the contest.

Should VMI have kicked the field goal on 4th down? Maybe. Going for it was definitely the correct move by the book, and I can’t really fault Danny Rocco’s decision. It was a bit of a logic vs. instincts situation, and I naturally vote for logic most of the time, but that call might have been an exception.

– The Citadel’s offense did not play well:

  • The Bulldogs were 0 for 11 on third down conversion attempts.
  • The Citadel had two turnovers, both giving VMI possession in Bulldogs territory.
  • The offense went 3-and-out (or worse) on seven of eleven drives.
  • On third-and-long plays, Johnathan Bennett completed one pass for 3 yards and was sacked four times.
  • Counting sacks, The Citadel had 64 net passing yards. The two big plays the offense had in the game were passes from Bennett to Tyler Cherry for 68 total yards, which means that aside from those completions, the Bulldogs had -4 net passing yards in eight drop-backs (four passes, four sacks).
  • The Citadel ran the ball on more than 80% of its offensive plays but only averaged 3.20 yards per rush, even when sack-adjusted.
  • Of The Citadel’s 51 offensive plays (again, not counting the end-of-game kneel-downs), 26 of them resulted in a gain of 2 yards or fewer.
  • It should not be forgotten that VMI had a defensive TD negated by a substitution infraction penalty, either.

And yet, the coveted Silver Shako is returning to its home in Charleston anyway. Despite the offense’s travails, it did produce the one huge play that ultimately won the game. The 43-yard touchdown pass from Bennett to Cherry was a really nice throw-and-catch, well executed on both ends. It makes you wonder why the Bulldogs can’t conjure up similar plays more often.

– I liked the color-on-color matchup with The Citadel wearing its light blue and VMI decked out in red. My personal preference is for the jerseys to be those colors with the pants being white (Bulldogs) and gold (Keydets), but yesterday’s look was solid.

– From The Roanoke Times:

VMI true freshman quarterback Brady Hammonds, making his third straight start, left the game with a knee injury early in the second quarter. But he returned to action — wearing a knee brace — for VMI’s final two series.

“He’s had this knee issue for about three weeks,” Rocco said. “He takes a shot and…he can’t really go out there and function and protect himself in the pocket, he can’t move. But then as it wears off, he’s able to get back into the game.”

…With VMI down 13-10, Hammonds returned to action for VMI’s penultimate series…Hammonds left the game [on VMI’s final drive] after being sacked and was again replaced by Wilson.

“(Hammonds) didn’t look very good getting up off the ground,” Rocco said.

But Rocco is optimistic Hammonds will be available to play next weekend.

You have to appreciate Hammonds’ toughness. When he re-entered the game, he could hardly move (though Hammonds somehow managed to scramble for 13 yards on a 3rd-and-8 play).

I really don’t know if he should play next week at Chattanooga, however.

– I was glad to see a small group of cadets dressed in summer leave were at the game. That is always a good thing, as it is when an assortment of keydets make their way to Charleston when the contest is held at Johnson Hagood Stadium. When the game returns to Foster Stadium in two years, I would like to see even more cadets in attendance.

– The Citadel has scored 13 points in each of the last two matchups against VMI. This time, that was enough for the victory. Next time, let’s score several touchdowns more.

Saturday, the Bulldogs return home to face a Samford team which just put 55 points on the board against Mercer, handing the Bears their first loss of the season. That will be a challenge.

I’m sure there will be some discussion in the tailgating areas about the recent article in The Post and Courier about the department of athletics (and the school in general). I’ve already given my take.

I’ll close this out with an unrelated tidbit, in case anyone is still reading and would like some (more) random information. I recently made my annual FOIA request for contracts of The Citadel’s upcoming non-conference football games. I have been informed that no new contracts were signed in the past 12 months, so there have been no additions on that front. 

Thus, the slate of future non-conference games remains as listed below.

2025: North Dakota State (8/30), at Mississippi (9/6), at Gardner-Webb (9/13)

2026: at Charlotte (9/5), Charleston Southern (9/19)

2027: at Navy (9/4), at North Dakota State (9/18)

2028: Gardner-Webb (9/2), at Clemson (9/16)

2029: at Army (10/6)

2033: at Army (11/19)

Worth noting: 2025 is another year in which, due to the calendar, FCS teams are allowed to schedule up to 12 regular-season games. That means there is an opportunity for The Citadel to schedule one more non-conference matchup for next season.

It could be that before adding another game, though, The Citadel might need to first hire a new AD…

The Citadel’s “crossroads” moment — a review with commentary

This post basically serves to review and comment on an article published in The Post and Courier on Saturday, October 12. The writer of the story is Andrew Miller, regular P+C beat writer for The Citadel’s football program.

I appreciated this article. I don’t necessarily agree with everything stated in the piece, though most of those points of contention emanate from people quoted in the story, not Miller himself. I do quibble with certain aspects of the article that I think needed to include alternative, on-record opinions. There was also one “factoid” in the piece which was monumentally misleading. I’ll address that later.

Having said that, I was glad to see the feature published. It brings up multiple issues facing The Citadel and its department of athletics, all of which richly deserve public scrutiny.

I would encourage anyone at all interested in The Citadel to read the article.

I’ll break down my commentary by each portion of the story (excluding the introductory section).

The bottom line

The athletic department is projected to lose nearly $2 million this year…[Operating expenses] in the 2021-22 academic year amounted to $3.2 million. The projected operational budget for this year is expected to be $5.5 million, or an increase of 71 percent.

To make ends meet, the budget was cut by 10 percent with reductions in scholarships for the current season, according to an athletic department source.

“We’re having to cut expenses and scholarships,” the source said.

The football team’s operating budget, which does not include scholarships, was cut $200,000 to $1 million. It also lost the equivalent of 2½ scholarships.

The basketball team experienced a similar fate, another source said.

But according to Walters, there have been no budget or scholarship cuts.

The school is projected to spend $4.7 million on scholarships this year, having spent $4.1 million in 2022 and 2023, Walters said.

“The coaches have a budget, and they have to manage that budget, but we need to give them more tools to help them out,” Walters said.

Two different sources told Andrew Miller that the department of athletics is undergoing budget and scholarship cuts — but this was denied by Gen. Walters. That is more than a little curious.

Along those lines, there is something else worth noting that is not in the article.

If you go to the webpage for The Citadel’s Procurement Services Department, you will find a link to the school’s “Awards” site for procurement. This includes solicitations, sole sources, and the occasional emergency purchase.

It can be an interesting site to follow. Those perusing the page will see that The Citadel has a sole source justification for SoCon-mandated baseballs, for example, and will notice that the league also requires a specific vendor for video database and data analysis software.

The site also has a link to a sole source for a “Financial Consultant”. The advertisement for this sole source was posted on June 13 (expiring two weeks later). The school listed a potential contract amount of $250,000 (over the course of one year) for “a financial consultant to advise and assist in financial planning.”

That is a very generic description, but the person named as the sole source, Rick Kelly, is not generic at all. He is a former executive director of the S.C. Budget and Control Board, and later served as the Chief Financial Officer at the University of South Carolina. Kelly is an auditor by trade and has actually been hired as a consultant by The Citadel before (in July of 2020).

It is my understanding that Kelly recently completed an audit of The Citadel’s department of athletics, and that his findings are to be presented to the Board of Visitors in the near future — perhaps as soon as the BOV’s next scheduled meeting.

Revenue sources

Walters hopes to renew a series of outdoor concerts at Johnson Hagood Stadium, which had been put on hold after complaints by local residents who feared the added traffic and noise.

Then there’s naming rights to the playing field and stadium that could bring in money.

Remember, The Citadel was not successful in its June appeal to the City of Charleston’s Board of Zoning Appeals for approval for the outdoor series. The school was defeated by a combination of NIMBY-ism and an unfriendly zoning board (the vote was 7-0 against The Citadel).

Of course, the board couldn’t outright tell the military college that any concerts at Johnson Hagood Stadium are off the table. Otherwise, other neighborhoods could presumably block similar events at venues all over the city (as The Citadel’s VP for communications noted in the linked article). However, it is reasonable to expect that the same people who opposed the concert series will continue to fight against any major events held at the stadium, so relying on that as a regular source of income might be a dicey proposition.

It seems to me that profiting off naming rights to the stadium would also be hard to accomplish. You can’t rename Johnson Hagood Stadium right now without violating the state’s Heritage Act (unless two-thirds of state lawmakers could be convinced to approve a name change; good luck with that).

Until or unless the Heritage Act is successfully challenged in court, I’m not sure what The Citadel can do. And even if that were to happen, it is possible potential candidates for naming rights (banks, grocery stores, etc.) would be hesitant to be the “replacement” name under those circumstances.

The NCAA settlement [the “House” case] and what it will mean for The Citadel has been one of the many reasons for the delay in finishing the east side stands at Johnson Hagood Stadium...But the pandemic and other delays, including funding for the $5 million project, have postponed construction.

Capaccio said he hopes to have the east side stands ready for the 2025 football season.

“We have more than $3 million on hand and more than enough pledges to cover the rest,” Walters said.

I would be very pleasantly surprised if the rebuilt East stands are ready by the time the 2025 football campaign rolls around. The first game of the season next year is a home game on August 30 against North Dakota State.

It would be nice if the stadium were ready when the Bison’s travelling supporters arrive in Charleston. I just find that timeline hard to believe, particularly given the history of the project. I will be happy if my skepticism is unfounded.

Another thing worth mentioning is that the phrase “many reasons for the delay” is doing a lot of work in that paragraph. There seems to be a lag of about a year in the overall approval process which cannot be easily explained by COVID-19, related construction issues, or general fundraising.

Moving on down

One of the biggest fears from alumni is that the administration and athletic department will grow weary of the constant losing and financial struggles and decide to drop down to Division II or even Division III, where no athletic scholarships are awarded, to save money and be more competitive…

Walters said there’s no plan to move down in classifications.

“Not on my watch,” he said. “We’re not going Division II.”

Here, at least, there appears to be near-unanimity on a topic, and I was glad to see it. Dropping down a division (or two) would be a terrible idea on a lot of levels, and also completely unnecessary.

Besides the likely exodus of donors mentioned in the story, Division III makes no sense from a geographic perspective. What schools would The Citadel even play? There are no D3 football schools in South Carolina. There are two in Georgia — Berry and LaGrange. The North Carolina institutions with D3 football programs are Brevard, Greensboro College, Guilford, Methodist, and North Carolina Wesleyan.

That obviously wouldn’t work for The Citadel.

As for Division II, I get the impression that more schools are trying to leave that tier than move to it. And here again, the list of local institutions in the division do not as a group “match up” with The Citadel from a historical or practical standpoint. (D2 football schools in South Carolina: Allen, Benedict, Erskine, Limestone, Newberry, North Greenville.)

In terms of dropping down, VMI actually did something similar (at least philosophically) at the beginning of the century when it left the SoCon to join the Big South. That move did not work out for the folks in Lexington, VA, and they were thrilled to be able to re-join the Southern Conference after a decade out in the cold.

Now, there is a facet to this worth discussing. It is possible that in the future The Citadel’s athletics programs could be in a tier called “Division II” that would actually mostly resemble the current Division I. If there is a breakaway from the NCAA of 20-40 schools (the inevitable “Superleague”) for football and a slightly larger number of institutions for basketball (50-70, perhaps), then the eventual NCAA setup could look like this (at least for football):

  • Division I — P4 schools left out of the Superleague, the majority of G5 schools, maybe a few FCS institutions with historic success and decent revenue potential (the Montana and Dakota schools, for example)
  • Division II — The vast majority of FCS, plus a few G5 schools that still want to play football but would not be in an ideal financial position in the new order of college athletics

There wouldn’t be any problem with The Citadel being in that type of Division II. It would still likely play the same schools as before. It is just a question of nomenclature. There would also be an opportunity to play the “Division I” schools, as is the case now.

In that system, schools could compete in a revised D1 in basketball, baseball, and any other sport in which they wished to do so, and the remainder of their varsity teams would play in a D2 with fewer financial and infrastructure commitments.

That could wind up being just fine for a school like The Citadel.

Transfer portal, NIL, and non-cadet athletes

I’m going to split this section, separating NIL from the other two listed issues.

As for NIL:

Some Citadel alumni are against NIL, but barring athletes from making deals with local businesses would be against the law.

“Sometimes we’re our own worst enemy,” [former Bulldogs quarterback and past BOV member Jack Douglas] said. “We can’t get out of our own way. We need to be more welcoming to people and businesses. The gates around the campus aren’t there to keep people out, it’s to keep the cadets in. We’re not taking advantage of some of the resources in Charleston, people and businesses that don’t really have a connection to the school but could be friendly to us and help us out.”

One of those alumni who might have a problem with NIL, however, is the school president. From the minutes of the Board of Visitors meeting on April 24, 2024:

[Walters] then discussed the impact of the current rules/laws on the Southern Conference (SoCon) and The Citadel. He stated there has been little impact to date for The Citadel with only a few athletes participating. Of those, only one currently receives monetary compensation. The others receive products for their endorsements.

He stated that although The Citadel, the SoCon, or the NCAA cannot prohibit an athlete from entering NIL contracts, The Citadel can and will develop a policy that will impose limitations on its student athletes. Among the limitations discussed:

  • Specific prohibitions on when and where student athletes can appear in advertisements for third parties.
  • Prohibit student athletes from appearing in NIL opportunities while wearing team jerseys.
  • Prohibit student athletes from endorsing tobacco, alcohol, illegal substances or activities, banned athletic substances, and gambling, including but not limited to sports betting.
  • Prohibit endorsement of products which compete with school sponsorship agreements or contracts.

It was also discussed prohibiting endorsement of products which conflict with The Citadel’s institutional values, but it was noted that such a rule would likely raise First Amendment concerns.

Personally, I think there is a distinction to be made between general NIL rights and a school-sponsored “collective”, which should be a non-starter at The Citadel.

It is one thing for cadets to work with local businesses, learning the value of networking, etc., or engaging in activities such as sports camps or individual instruction. I have no problem with that; nobody should. It would be like someone in the regimental band teaching local students how to play the bagpipes or the trumpet (and being compensated for it).

A school-sponsored collective implies pay-for-play, however, and that is not the route The Citadel needs to take going forward. Doing so would fly in the face of the school’s overall mission.

It won’t be the route most of The Citadel’s peers will take, either, and that matters in the long run when schools form alliances (or new conferences) as a reaction to the “modernization” of college athletics.

I know there are currently schools in the SoCon that are banking on collectives, and pay-for-play. In the short term, they’re going to have an advantage over The Citadel in certain sports (particularly basketball). That isn’t really something which is controllable.

In ten years, there is a decent chance that The Citadel is not in the same conference with a school like, say, East Tennessee State. That won’t matter, though, if The Citadel is still aligned with VMI and Furman and other schools which could be construed as having a similar reputation (a hard-to-define combination of history, prestige, and cachet).

And yes, I realize that some of those “similar reputation” institutions are currently putting a lot of money into certain sports (like hoops). I’m thinking about what the outlook will be in 10-to-20 years, not 3-to-5.

Now about the transfer portal and non-cadet athletes:

Many of the old guard don’t want the Bulldogs to recruit and sign transfers. The vast majority of transfers signing with The Citadel recently have been graduate students. A handful of undergraduate day students have also transferred into the school.

The balance between cadet-athletes and non-cadet athletes has been a point of contention with some alumni…

…Walters said there are no caps or limits to the number of transfers each team can have.

“We have to give our coaches every opportunity to be competitive,” Walters said. “I’m sure most of the alumni would prefer to have all cadets on our teams, but they also want to win. We had 10 knobs on the basketball team last year and only a couple came back. I can’t hamstring Coach Conroy and have him sign 10 new freshmen every year. He wouldn’t be able to build a program.”

The current basketball roster includes a half-dozen transfers.

Attracting graduate students has been an issue as well. While many graduates want to take advantage of the school’s business program, The Citadel provides just $950 a month to graduate transfers for expenses.

“No one can live in Charleston on $900 a month,” [Citadel Football Association president Robbie Briggs] said. “You can’t pay rent and eat on that. Charleston is expensive. It would take a minimum of $2,000 in my opinion to live in Charleston.”

Ironically, it costs less for the school to sign a non-cadet transfer than to bring a freshman on campus. Freshmen student-athletes cost the school about $10,000 more a year than other undergraduates or graduate transfers due to providing uniforms and equipment.

First, I sincerely hope that coaches are not under any pressure to bring in non-cadets rather than freshmen in order to save money. I would consider any attempt to implement such a policy to be worthy of dismissal.

As to expenses for living in Charleston, I think the problem there is partly with the SoCon. In an appearance on an ETSU-affiliated podcast last December, East Tennessee State AD Richard Sander said this:

“The SoCon is the only conference in the country that limits cost of attendance. So we can only provide 28 student-athletes cost of attendance…we’re limited as to the [league’s] cap…that’s $2000.00. Well, our [actual] cost of attendance at ETSU is $6900.00.

We [ETSU], Chattanooga, a couple of other places [want to change that], but I’ll be honest, the private schools don’t want to change that. They think it’s a competitive advantage for us because our cost of attendance is high compared to theirs.

When we’re recruiting against, pick somebody in basketball…Western Kentucky or College of Charleston, they’re giving [players] total cost of attendance and we think in that kind of situation we think [the league rules] are creating a real difficult situation for us.”

It is possible the SoCon’s CoA rule might be working against The Citadel. I could be wrong about this interpretation, to be sure, but I don’t think the military college is one of the schools blocking a potential increase in the limit.

Briggs is absolutely correct about trying to live in Charleston on $950 per month, and that certainly has had a deleterious effect on the recruitment of certain athletes. We’ve all heard the stories.

Having said that, I am one of the alums who would greatly prefer that almost all (if not all) of our athletes are in the corps of cadets, or are recent graduates from the corps. There are arguments on both sides about this, of course, but I come back to a couple of things.

– “I’m sure most of the alumni would prefer to have all cadets on our teams, but they also want to win.” — Gen. Walters

Well, yes, but when is the last time a transfer-heavy squad at The Citadel was legitimately successful? I’ll wait on your answer. It will be a long wait.

The fact is that we have allowed our coaches to supplement their rosters with large numbers of transfers in recent years, and in no situation has it resulted in a significant increase in winning. Sometimes, it seems to have boomeranged in the opposite direction.

Also, while I understand the point about the problem of cycling through rosters due to freshman attrition, that has always been an issue at The Citadel, long before the transfer portal existed. I might add that the constant one-year “rental” of graduate students hasn’t done anything for continuity (or general competitiveness) either.

– There is another rationale involved here. For whom do the varsity teams at The Citadel primarily exist as a benefit? Well, the players themselves, obviously.

They also exist for the alumni and other supporters, including those in the local community. And they exist, most importantly, for the corps of cadets. I think it is natural and right for the corps to be able to cheer for a team that consists mostly (if not entirely) of fellow cadets.

This isn’t just about a pie-in-the-sky notion of utopia, either. There is also a financial consideration, after all. As Miller pointed out in his article:

Each cadet pays around $3,000 a year in student athletic fees, among the highest in the country. That comes out to approximately $6.4 million, the largest source of revenue for the athletic department.

If cadets are going to front the plurality of the funds which support varsity athletics, it seems to me that those teams should represent them in something close to totality. That means the players should mostly be cadets, too.

Some alumni have also bristled at the sight of long hair and facial hair among some graduate transfers.

“There are a lot of older alumni that believe this place was some kind of nirvana back in the day, and it’s just not true,” Walters said. “We had graduate students playing sports back when I was here in the 1970s, and we had guys with hair flowing out of the backs of their helmets when I was here. People don’t remember that, but I do.”

I wish Andrew Miller had quoted an alumnus with a strong opinion about the issue at hand. I would have liked him to interview one of those who had “bristled”. I think that would have been appropriate, and would have also avoided Walters’ comment coming off as a bit of a ‘strawman’ construct (which clearly wasn’t the intent).

Walters’ quote interested me, though, because I could not recall graduate students playing football in the 1975-78 time frame when he was at The Citadel (he’s a 1979 grad). I’m not old enough to know for sure, though, so I will defer to Walters on this.

To be fair, Walters didn’t specifically refer to grad students in football, but rather he just made a comment about “guys with hair flowing out of the backs of their helmets”.

From perusing the 1978 football media guide, which featured the team that played during Walters’ senior year, I can see how that might have occasionally been the case. Kenny Caldwell is on the cover with Art Baker, and Caldwell’s hair is a little longer than what you would see today at The Citadel.

It was a 1970s thing, I guess. The photos of the coaching staff are instructive as well; offensive coordinator Rick Gilstrap had a lot of lettuce, and running backs coach Mike O’Cain sported a world-class moustache.

However, I don’t think the hairstyles of the 1970s, groovy as they might have been, are really applicable to today. I expect varsity athletes to conform to the current standards of the corps, regardless of status.

That means relatively short hair and no beards or moustaches. The Citadel is a military college. The players that represent it (and the corps of cadets) need to look like they belong, whether on the field, court, track, road, mat, course, range, or diamond.

Also, while a lot of the issues mentioned in the article are hard problems to solve, this isn’t one of them. Just tell the guys to get a shave and a haircut. The world won’t end, and it won’t cost hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Texas A&M model

Oh, boy…

It was during the annual summer talking season in the early 2000s when [Ellis Johnson], the former football coach, brought up the idea of The Citadel adopting a Texas A&M model where the school would open its campus to more non-cadets.

The idea was met with a resounding silence.

As well it should have. However, there is (unfortunately) more:

Up until 1964, Texas A&M required all students to be members in the Corps of Cadets. That year, school president James Earl Rudder opened up the school to women and Blacks for the first time. A year later, membership in the corps became voluntary.

Today, Texas A&M is the second-largest university in the nation with more than 72,000 students. Of those, 2,500 —including 300 women — are cadets.

The idea of allowing non-cadets into The Citadel isn’t even that new. Red Parker, the Bulldogs head coach from 1966-72, was a proponent of letting in non-cadets.

“You have to remember this was in the middle of the Vietnam war and the military wasn’t that popular back then,” said [Charlie Baker], who played linebacker for Parker in the early 1970s. “People think we’d lose our identity as a military school, but we wouldn’t. Look at what Texas A&M has done. They still have a Corps of Cadets, and the school is doing great.”

Texas A&M last year had a $17.2 billion endowment.

I’ll get to the most disingenuous sentence in that quote in a few paragraphs.

However, first let me say this. I have great respect for both Ellis Johnson (who played at The Citadel and also served as its head football coach) and Charlie Baker (another former player who has done great things for The Citadel, and who bleeds light blue).

And they’re both incredibly wrong about this.

Why do people think The Citadel would lose its identity as a military college? Well, because it would.

Do most people today think of Texas A&M as a military school? Of course not. The only time that even comes up in general discourse is when sports fans at other schools make fun of the Yell Leaders.

The Citadel, on the other hand, is chiefly identified as a military college. If you marginalize that essential component, it ceases to be The Citadel, both in the minds of the overwhelming majority of its alumni and among the public at large. It becomes Palmetto A&M, an entity with no history and no justification for having one.

It could be argued the best thing the State of South Carolina has going for it from a higher education standpoint is that (despite the best efforts of some of its leaders over the years) it has produced among its colleges and universities a unique, undeniably successful institution on the banks of the Ashley.

The Citadel has incredible value in its current form. It might be better positioned for the new era of university education than 95% of its fellow schools in this country — and that might be an underestimation.

Colleges and universities are desperately trying to differentiate themselves in order to attract a limited number of future students. It is not an easy thing to do.

However, that isn’t a problem for The Citadel. You can’t get the experience of being a cadet in an online format. You have to be there. You have to feel the no-see-ums. You have to accept a difficult challenge and ultimately pass a test of will, and you have to pass that test in the presence (and with the assistance) of others.

Not only am I diametrically opposed to reducing The Citadel’s value as an alumnus, but I also resent the suggestion as a citizen of the state. Why diminish something so beneficial for no real advantage (and a lot of obvious pitfalls)?

Ellis Johnson also said this:

“Seventy percent of Citadel graduates don’t go into the military,” Johnson said. “They go start businesses, they become entrepreneurs, they go into politics, and they are good, productive citizens. What’s wrong with producing good people and good citizens? Sometimes I think the school caters to that 30 percent of the alumni base a little too much.”

I didn’t understand this comment, on two levels. First, I don’t really think the school caters to its veteran alums more than its other graduates. I’ve never noticed that myself.

More to the point, though, is the idea that the veteran alums are those most against the gradual dissipation of the corps of cadets as the school’s focus. I don’t think that is true at all.

I haven’t done a survey or anything, but I know plenty of non-veterans who are dead-set against turning the school into Palmetto A&M. I’m one of them.

I’m not even sure that a higher percentage of veterans than non-vets are against that concept. I would suspect that there is uniformity in the opposition, regardless of background.

This might be a digression, but I think it is a necessary one. The line in the article that I found particularly misleading was this one:

Texas A&M last year had a $17.2 billion endowment.

In the context of the story, that brief statement tends to imply that Texas A&M began admitting non-cadets and things have gone fantastically well ever since, including an amazing endowment which surely is directly related to the school’s change of mission.

The truth is that there cannot possibly be anything more unrelated than Texas A&M’s endowment and the status of its Corps of Cadets. It might be the most unrelated thing in the history of unrelatedness.

The actual reason Texas A&M has a large endowment is a 19th-century provision established in the Texas Constitution that created something known as the Permanent University Fund (PUF):

In 1876, the Texas Constitution set aside land in West Texas to support The University of Texas and Texas A&M systems of higher education. Today, that land – encompassing 2.1 million acres – is leased to oil and gas companies whose wells generate revenue that flows into the PUF. Land also is leased for grazing, wind farms and other revenue-generating activities.

The Texas A&M system receives one-third of the annual proceeds of the PUF, while the University of Texas system gets the other two-thirds (and thus UT’s endowment is even more monstrous than TAMU’s).

Texas A&M’s share of the PUF return in 2023 totaled slightly over $410 million. That’s for one year. It will get more money this year, and even more cash next year, and presumably every year after that as long as the wells don’t completely run dry.

The provision that set up TAMU (and UT) for all that moolah was enacted 88 years before the school began admitting non-cadets.

The reference to Texas A&M’s endowment should not have been in the article.

The Citadel doesn’t need to be like Texas A&M, and it couldn’t be like Texas A&M even if everyone wanted that outcome. And most people don’t anyway.

Earlier this week, there was another piece in The Post and Courier about The Citadel’s future in athletics, this one in the form of a column by Scott Hamilton that was centered around the upcoming search for a new director of athletics. I wanted to highlight one part of it:

Some initial thoughts are if The Citadel might consider moving down a level. Should dropping to Division II – or perhaps even Division III – be on the table?

No, they just need to know exactly who they are and what their mission is,” said Rob Yowell, president of Arizona-based Gemini Sports. “And that’s (to be) more like West Point, Annapolis and Air Force. Not Coastal Carolina, Liberty and Louisiana-Monroe.

Yowell, whose firm runs major events such as the PGA Tour’s Waste Management Phoenix Open and the Fiesta Bowl, is spot-on. Having an identity would simplify things so much. The service academies embrace who they are, just as traditional Group of 5 schools realize they’re not competing on and off the field with the likes of Alabama and Ohio State.

It is nice to read something as perceptive as that from an outsider — in this case, a Duke graduate who lives in Phoenix. Wonders will never cease.

I will say that The Citadel does share some things in common with Coastal Carolina and ULM, so it isn’t an “exact opposite” comparison when it comes to those two schools (and coincidentally, the AD at Louisiana-Monroe is John Hartwell, a graduate of The Citadel).

“There are a lot of older alumni that believe this place was some kind of nirvana back in the day, and it’s just not true,” Walters said.

Walters is 100% correct about that. I can sympathize with him as he tries to navigate the school through a lot of choppy water, trying to justify various decisions to alumni, a few of whom think it is still 1950, or who wish it were still 1950.

In terms of sports, this is a very trying time for the military college. I believe that the current climate in college athletics is the worst it could be from The Citadel’s perspective since the Sanity Code was enacted in 1948.

Of course, we all know what happened then. The Citadel became one of the famed “Sinful Seven”, and the Sanity Code was eventually revoked.

It didn’t come without controversy, however. For one thing, an attempt was made to expel those seven schools from the NCAA in 1950 — not put them in probation, mind you (probation as we know it today didn’t exist) — but throw them out of the association entirely.

And more than half of the schools in the NCAA voted to expel The Citadel, and the other six schools.

That’s right. Of the 203 delegates, 111 of them cast a ballot to toss out The Citadel and company. The president of the NCAA actually announced that the motion had passed — and then he was reminded that a two-thirds super-majority was needed, and that the motion had thus failed by 25 votes.

That failure essentially ended the long-term viability of the Sanity Code (though it wasn’t formally repealed until the following year).

I think about that occasionally. It is a reminder that things are always going to be a bit testy for The Citadel when it comes to its place in college sports. More than half of its fellow NCAA members once voted to throw the school out of the club.

It is also not strictly coincidental that The Citadel struggled mightily in varsity athletics in the years following the original enactment of the Sanity Code (there were admittedly other reasons too).

From 1948 through 1954, the Bulldogs’ football program had a record of 21-44-1, with no winning seasons in those seven years. In basketball it was even worse. From 1949 through 1956, the hoopsters were 28-135.

Does that sound vaguely familiar?

Things changed, though. The climate around college athletics eventually turned a bit (not too much) in The Citadel’s favor. By the late 1950s, backed by a new school president who didn’t like to lose, and playing in a conference with schools much more on its level than in the previous 20 years, The Citadel started winning consistently in almost all sports.

That can happen again. It will require patience, though. I just hope the folks running the institution (and the alumni and other supporters) maintain that patience.

I want to win, too. I just don’t want to throw away what makes The Citadel great in the process.

The Citadel Football 2023: the coveted Silver Shako is on the line

VMI at The Citadel, to be played at historic Johnson Hagood Stadium in Charleston, South Carolina, with kickoff at 1:00 pm ET on October 14, 2023.

The game will be televised via Nexstar and streamed on ESPN+Pete Yanity will handle play-by-play, while Jared Singleton supplies the analysis.

According to the SoCon’s website:

Nexstar affiliates with the opportunity to air games are: ECBD (Charleston), WMYT (Charlotte), WWCW (Lynchburg/Roanoke) and WYCW (Greenville/Spartanburg/Asheville). Although not a Nexstar station, WMUB (Macon), Mercer University Broadcasting, will also air select contests.

As mentioned the last time The Citadel appeared on Nexstar, that doesn’t necessarily mean all of those stations will be televising Saturday’s matchup.

The contest can be heard on radio via The Citadel Sports Network. WQNT-1450 AM [audio link], originating in Charleston, will be the flagship station. Other stations carrying the game include WQXL in Columbia (100.7 FM/1470 AM) and WDXY in Sumter (105.9 FM/1240 AM).

Brian Giffin will call the action alongside analyst Lee Glaze.

Links of interest:

– SoCon weekly release

VMI game notes

The Citadel game notes

– Maurice Drayton’s Monday press conference

– Season statistics for The Citadel (six games)

– Box score for The Citadel-Furman

– No “moral victories” for the Bulldogs

VMI head coach Danny Rocco chases a new prize: the Silver Shako

Danny Rocco has been getting an education about VMI-The Citadel

Box score for Davidson-VMI (a 12-7 victory for the Keydets)

Box score for VMI-Bucknell (VMI lost, 21-13)

Box score for VMI-North Carolina State (NCSU won, 45-7)

Box score for Wofford-VMI (a 17-14 win for the Keydets)

Box score for VMI-Mercer (VMI lost, 38-3)

– Season statistics for VMI (five games)

Roster review:

– Of the 110 players on The Citadel’s online roster, 58 are from South Carolina. Other states represented: Florida (14 players), Georgia (11), North Carolina (11), Virginia (5), Alabama (2), Ohio (2), New York (2), Texas (2), and one each from Maryland, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

The Bulldogs have 9 redshirt freshmen and 31 “true” freshmen.

– VMI has 113 players on its online roster. Of those, 77 are from Virginia. Other states represented: North Carolina (6 players), Georgia (5), Tennessee (5), West Virginia (5), Pennsylvania (4), Maryland (2), South Carolina (2), and one each from Delaware, Florida, Minnesota, Ohio, New Jersey, and New York.

Defensive lineman Terrell Jackson is from Washington, DC.

– VMI lists eight players on its roster as seniors and 21 others as redshirt juniors. On the other side of the experience coin, 14 of the Keydets are redshirt freshmen and 45 are “true” freshmen.

– There are two Palmetto State products on the Keydets’ squad: placekicker Caden Beck, a redshirt sophomore from Greenville who went to Powdersville; and offensive lineman Jacob Ashley, a sophomore from Mt. Pleasant who attended Oceanside Collegiate.

There are no graduates of Orangeburg-Wilkinson High School on VMI’s team. While it is early in his tenure, new head coach Danny Rocco undoubtedly already realizes the importance of recruiting those who have worn the famed maroon and orange, and will correct his roster deficiency as soon as possible.

There is certainly a contrast between VMI and Furman in terms of in-state recruiting. While the Paladins have only seven players from South Carolina, 69% of the Keydets hail from Virginia.

Odds and ends:

– The weather forecast for Saturday in Charleston, per the National Weather Service, includes a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning and early afternoon. The projected high is 82°, with a low that night of 61°.

– As a weekly reminder, it is highly unlikely that a line for this game will be posted anywhere before Saturday morning.

– Massey Ratings: VMI is ranked 85th in FCS, unchanged from last week. The Citadel is 110th (up three places). Massey projects VMI to win the game by a predicted score of 21-20. The Citadel is given a 48% chance of winning.

— Meanwhile, SP+ ranks VMI 110th (123rd on offense, 67th on defense) and The Citadel 121st (125th on offense, 105th on D).

A selected list of SP+ FCS rankings entering Week 7:

  • South Dakota State (1st)
  • North Dakota State (2nd)
  • Montana State (3rd)
  • Austin Peay (14th) [SP+ really loves the schools in the UAC for some reason]
  • William and Mary (15th)
  • Furman (18th)
  • Jackson State (29th)
  • Chattanooga (31st)
  • Campbell (36th)
  • Eastern Kentucky (38th)
  • Mercer (41st)
  • Samford (48th)
  • Western Carolina (49th) [SP+ is still not a believer in the Catamounts, despite considerable evidence to the contrary]
  • Kennesaw State (58th)
  • Davidson (63rd)
  • South Carolina State (73rd) [quite a jump this week; not sure why]
  • East Tennessee State (89th)
  • Charleston Southern (90th)
  • Wofford (101st)
  • Bucknell (106th)
  • Morehead State (118th)
  • Presbyterian (128th and last) [in spite of two victories]

In other FCS ratings systems, The Citadel ranks 127th in the Congrove Computer Rankings (unchanged from last week), 126th in the Laz Index (up one spot), and 115th in the DCI (an increase of five places).

– Games involving SoCon teams this week [projected score per SP+ in brackets]:

  • Saturday at 1:00 pm ET: Furman at Samford [Furman 30.3, Samford 24.1]
  • Saturday at 1:00 pm ET: VMI at The Citadel [VMI 21.9, The Citadel 19.6]
  • Saturday at 3:30 pm ET: Wofford at East Tennessee State [ETSU 26.6, Wofford 20.4]
  • Saturday at 4:00 pm ET: Chattanooga at Mercer [UTC 25.7, Mercer 25.6]

Western Carolina is off this week.

– Among VMI’s notable alumni: civil rights activist (and Anglican martyr) Jonathan Daniels, rugby star Dan Lyle, and movie producer Frank McCarthy.

– The Citadel has an all-time record of 3-10 for games played on October 14, and has lost the last 8 times it has played on that date. The Bulldogs are 2-3 at home, and 2-9 in league play (including a 22-11 loss to VMI in 1967, a contest played in Roanoke, Virginia).

The military college has not prevailed on the gridiron on October 14 since a 10-8 victory at William and Mary during the 1961 SoCon championship season.

The last home victory on that date came in 1950, when The Citadel defeated Davidson 19-12. The only other win on October 14 for the Bulldogs was a 34-7 triumph over Presbyterian in 1916 at Hampton Park.

Last season, VMI passed on 56.5% of its plays from scrimmage (these statistics, as usual, are adjusted to reflect sacks). Passing yardage accounted for 54.3% of VMI’s total yards.

Through five games this year, VMI is passing on only 46.6% of its plays from scrimmage, as under Danny Rocco the Keydets have moved to a more balanced offense. However, passing yardage still accounts for a majority of the squad’s total yardage (56.6%).

VMI had a yards per pass attempt rate of 5.07 yards in 2022. So far this season, that has increased to 5.26.

VMI is averaging 3.51 yards per rush, a slight increase from last year’s 3.46.

In all, VMI is averaging 4.33 yards per play this season, not far removed from last year’s 4.37. The Keydets have seen a dip in actually putting points on the board, though (just 10.4 per game this season, as opposed to last year’s 16.1 per contest).

Rocco on VMI’s offense:

We’re not dynamic enough to just line up and run base plays and literally just knock people off the ball and create space. So we’re doing some things here moving forward that create conflict — run-pass options, things like that…

…We lack the ability to sustain a ground game and control the ball. The last two weeks, we installed some personnel groupings with bigger bodies in the game. We don’t have a lot of tight ends in the program…So we inserted a couple of different packages with an extra offensive lineman.

Big play alert:

VMI’s media relations team considers a “big play” a gain of 25 yards or more, which is a reasonable definition. Last year, the Keydets’ offense had 22 such plays from scrimmage, averaging exactly 2 per game.

In its first five games this year, VMI has 10 big plays, so it is averaging…exactly 2 per game.

Defensively, the Keydets are allowing 5.60 yards per play so far in 2023, a bit of an improvement from last year (5.89). The real change for the better, and the one that matters most, is points allowed per game. VMI’s defense is giving up exactly 25 points per contest this season, down from last year’s 36.3 points allowed per game.

The Keydets have allowed the second-fewest yards per game among SoCon teams, including a league-leading mark in passing yards allowed per contest. That is skewed by some of the opposing offenses VMI has lined up against (having faced by far the fewest pass attempts in the conference).

The bottom line, though, is its defense has held up more often than not and as a result the Keydets have already doubled their win total from last season.

In its four contests against FCS competition, VMI’s D has only really struggled once, in its most recent game at Mercer. In that matchup, the Keydets allowed the Bears to rush for 308 yards on only 47 attempts. There is a decent chance that stopping the run was a point of emphasis for VMI’s coaches during its bye week.

It is worth noting that VMI blocked a field goal and a punt last season against The Citadel, returning the latter for a touchdown. Special teams will be a major focus this week for both teams.

This will be the 79th meeting between the two schools in football. The results of the last four years have been split, with The Citadel having won the last two.

In the previous 78 matchups, The Citadel holds a 44-32-2 edge, though the overall point totals are fairly close. The Bulldogs average 20.76 points per game in the series, while the Keydets average 17.86 points per contest.

The Citadel has a 26-11 advantage when the game has been played in Charleston. Results at other sites for the game break down like this:

  • Lexington: VMI has a 17-14-2 edge; The Citadel didn’t win in Lexington until 1961 (but what a victory that was!)
  • Norfolk: The Citadel has won 3 of 4 games
  • Charlotte: the two schools split a pair of meetings in 2002-2003, with the first of those very high on the list of the worst field and weather conditions for any football game I’ve ever attended
  • Roanoke: mentioned earlier in this preview; VMI won the only matchup played there in 1967
  • Lynchburg: the first contest in the series was held there in 1920, with VMI winning

VMI is reportedly bringing its band and a healthy number of freshmen to the game, which should add to the festivities. Hopefully the next time the Keydets are in town, in 2025, the East stands will be complete and its entire corps can make the trip down from Virginia.

Both teams really could use a victory on Saturday, particularly The Citadel. While playing in Charleston should help the Bulldogs, VMI has proven it knows how to win this season, and so in that respect the edge lies with the Keydets.

However, The Citadel showed improvement last week. The offense moved the ball at times, and the defense had its best tackling effort of the season. That progress wasn’t enough to win — the red zone proved to be troublesome for the Bulldogs’ offense, for one thing — but there were encouraging signs.

Regardless of the state of the two programs, this is always an intense game, as it should be. After all, the coveted Silver Shako, the greatest trophy in all of sports, is at stake.

It must remain in Charleston, where it belongs.

College Football Week 5, 2021: Friday notes and observations

Why the coveted Silver Shako matters

Thursday notes and observations (including a myriad of statistics)

Tuesday notes and observations (lines/odds and conference realignment discussion)

Starting QB for VMI “not revealed quite yet”

This is just a very quick post. The main purpose of it is to provide a link to my working spreadsheet for FCS statistics through Week 4. I thought there might be some interest (there also might be no interest whatsoever).

Anyway, here it is:

Assorted 2021 FCS statistics through September 26

It is admittedly rather cumbersome, and you will have to decipher a few space-saving acronyms, but it shouldn’t be too bad. Note that there are no overall subdivision totals included.

The NCAA has posted attendance numbers through September 26. Not every team has played a home game yet, and a couple of schools didn’t release attendance totals, which makes things more complicated. Anyway, I’ve cleaned up the NCAA’s chart a bit to make things more readable. Here are how things currently stand in the subdivision in terms of home attendance:

Rank Institution Games Avg Att Stadium Capacity Pct Capacity
1 Jackson State 1 33,652 40,000 84.1%
2 Montana 2 25,419 25,217 100.8%
3 James Madison 2 22,169 24,877 89.1%
4 Harvard 1 20,748 30,323 68.4%
5 Jacksonville State 2 19,820 24,000 82.6%
6 Montana State 2 19,452 17,777 109.4%
7 Texas Southern 1 18,297 22,000 83.2%
8 Southern 2 15,614 28,500 54.8%
9 South Dakota State 1 15,162 19,340 78.4%
10 North Dakota State 2 15,137 18,700 80.9%
11 North Carolina A&T 1 15,009 21,500 69.8%
12 Norfolk State 1 14,012 30,000 46.7%
13 Eastern Ky. 2 13,627 20,000 68.1%
14 Delaware 1 13,351 22,000 60.7%
15 Cornell 1 12,555 21,500 58.4%
16 Missouri State 2 11,993 17,500 68.5%
17 Alabama A&M 1 11,500 21,000 54.8%
18 Youngstown State 2 11,194 20,630 54.3%
19 Alabama State 2 11,163 26,500 42.1%
20 Cal Poly 1 11,075 11,075 100.0%
21 NC Central 1 10,918 10,000 109.2%
22 Furman 2 10,916 16,000 68.2%
23 Central Arkansas 2 10,501 8,500 123.5%
24 Elon 2 10,305 11,250 91.6%
25 New Hampshire 1 10,247 11,015 93.0%
26 North Dakota 1 10,143 12,283 82.6%
27 Villanova 2 10,110 12,000 84.3%
28 UC Davis 1 9,865 10,849 90.9%
29 The Citadel 2 9,504 11,500 82.6%
30 Western Carolina 2 9,354 13,742 68.1%
31 Northwestern State 1 9,146 15,971 57.3%
32 Towson 1 9,109 11,198 81.3%
33 Weber State 2 9,012 16,500 54.6%
34 ETSU 2 8,868 7,694 115.3%
35 Mercer 1 8,727 10,200 85.6%
36 McNeese 1 8,665 17,810 48.7%
37 Abilene Christian 2 8,568 9,000 95.2%
38 Northern Arizona 1 8,564 7,000 122.3%
39 Prairie View 2 8,476 15,000 56.5%
40 Holy Cross 1 8,211 23,500 34.9%
41 Illinois State 1 8,148 13,381 60.9%
42 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 2 8,145 14,500 56.2%
43 Albany 1 8,144 8,500 95.8%
44 Chattanooga 1 8,115 20,668 39.3%
45 Stephen F. Austin 3 8,097 14,575 55.6%
46 Tarleton State 2 8,094 9,000 89.9%
47 Sacramento State 1 8,067 21,195 38.1%
48 Morgan State 1 8,035 10,000 80.4%
49 Southern Illinois 2 7,978 15,000 53.2%
50 North Alabama 2 7,857 14,215 55.3%
51 Sam Houston 1 7,728 14,000 55.2%
52 Dixie State 2 7,468 5,500 135.8%
53 Nicholls 1 7,314 10,500 69.7%
54 Southern Utah 1 7,096 8,500 83.5%
55 Northern Iowa 1 6,886 16,324 42.2%
56 Murray State 1 6,874 16,000 43.0%
57 Morehead State 1 6,607 10,000 66.1%
58 Richmond 2 6,526 8,700 75.0%
59 Eastern Illinois 1 6,424 10,000 64.2%
60 Kennesaw State 1 6,348 8,300 76.5%
61 William & Mary 1 6,162 12,400 49.7%
62 Marist 1 6,154 5,000 123.1%
63 Indiana State 2 6,096 12,764 47.8%
64 Tennessee Tech 2 6,018 16,500 36.5%
65 Stony Brook 2 5,971 12,300 48.5%
66 UT Martin 1 5,869 7,500 78.3%
67 Bucknell 1 5,856 13,100 44.7%
68 Rhode Island 1 5,735 6,555 87.5%
69 Northern Colorado 2 5,687 8,500 66.9%
70 Lehigh 2 5,576 16,000 34.9%
71 Lamar 1 5,411 16,000 33.8%
72 Western Illinois 1 5,385 16,368 32.9%
73 Butler 1 5,371 5,647 95.1%
74 Idaho State 2 5,332 12,000 44.4%
75 Maine 2 5,295 10,000 53.0%
76 South Dakota 1 5,247 9,100 57.7%
77 Brown 1 5,244 20,000 26.2%
78 Sacred Heart 2 5,233 4,000 130.8%
79 Idaho 1 5,214 16,000 32.6%
80 Dartmouth 1 5,121 11,000 46.6%
81 St. Thomas 1 5,051 5,025 100.5%
82 VMI 2 5,043 10,000 50.4%
83 Campbell 2 5,005 5,500 91.0%
84 Samford 2 4,965 6,700 74.1%
85 Austin Peay 1 4,821 10,000 48.2%
86 Wofford 1 4,597 13,000 35.4%
87 Eastern Washington 1 4,523 8,600 52.6%
88 Hampton 1 4,500 12,000 37.5%
89 Yale 2 4,452 64,269 6.9%
90 Gardner-Webb 2 4,440 8,500 52.2%
91 Princeton 1 4,429 30,000 14.8%
92 Drake 2 4,355 14,557 29.9%
93 Monmouth 1 4,235 4,200 100.8%
94 Bethune-Cookman 1 4,173 9,601 43.5%
95 Davidson 2 4,143 4,500 92.1%
96 SE Missouri State 2 3,986 10,000 39.9%
97 Valparaiso 1 3,856 5,000 77.1%
98 Merrimack 1 3,827 3,500 109.3%
99 Central Conn. State 2 3,809 5,500 69.3%
100 Charleston Southern 1 3,801 4,000 95.0%
101 Fordham 1 3,752 7,000 53.6%
102 Portland State 2 3,610 7,200 50.1%
103 Columbia 2 3,602 17,000 21.2%
104 Dayton 2 3,387 11,000 30.8%
105 Lafayette 2 3,177 13,132 24.2%
106 Delaware State 3 3,137 7,000 44.8%
107 Robert Morris 1 2,514 3,000 83.8%
108 Tennessee State 1 2,513 67,500 3.7%
109 Georgetown 1 2,509 2,500 100.4%
110 Colgate 3 2,464 10,221 24.1%
111 Duquesne 1 2,454 2,200 111.5%
112 Presbyterian 2 2,443 6,500 37.6%
113 San Diego 2 2,339 5,792 40.4%
114 Bryant 1 2,276 4,400 51.7%
115 Wagner 1 2,271 3,300 68.8%
116 Houston Baptist 1 2,135 5,000 42.7%
117 Incarnate Word 2 2,075 6,000 34.6%
118 Stetson 2 1,397 6,000 23.3%
119 St. Francis (PA) 2 1,353 3,500 38.7%

College Football Week 5, 2021: Thursday notes and observations

Tuesday notes and observations, including lines/odds and conference realignment discussion

SoCon weekly release

VMI game notes

The Citadel game notes

Almost one-fourth of VMI’s roster is from the Richmond, VA metropolitan area

VMI “braces to restrict The Citadel’s option”

Broadcast information

VMI at The Citadel, The Military Classic of the South, to be played on Sansom Field at historic Johnson Hagood Stadium in Charleston, South Carolina, with kickoff at 2:00 pm ET on October 2, 2021.

The game will be streamed on ESPN+ and televised on the following TV stations:

  • ECBD (Charleston, SC)
  • WHDF (Huntsville/Florence, AL)
  • WMUB (Macon, GA)
  • WMYT (Charlotte, NC)
  • WWCW (Lynchburg/Roanoke, VA)
  • WYCW (Greenville, SC/Spartanburg, SC/Asheville, NC).

Pete Yanity will handle play-by-play, while Jay Sonnhalter supplies the analysis.

The contest can be heard on radio via The Citadel Sports Network. WQNT-1450 AM [audio link], originating in Charleston, will be the flagship station. Other stations carrying the game include WQXL in Columbia (100.7 FM/1470 AM) and WDXY in Sumter (105.9 FM/1240 AM).

Luke Mauro (the “Voice of the Bulldogs”) calls the action alongside analyst Lee Glaze.

Roster review:

– Of the 114 players on The Citadel’s online roster, 62 are from South Carolina. Other states represented: Georgia (18 players), Florida (11), North Carolina (9), Virginia (5), Alabama (2), Texas (2), and one each from New York, Oklahoma, Ohio, and Tennessee.

Tight end Hayden Williamson played his high school football in Okinawa, Japan.

– VMI has 108 players on its online roster. Of those, 74 are from Virginia. As mentioned in an article linked above, 25 of those players are from the Richmond metropolitan area.

Other states represented on the Keydets’ squad: North Carolina (8 players), Pennsylvania (4), Maryland (3), Alabama (2), Georgia (2), New Jersey (2), South Carolina (2), Tennessee (2), West Virginia (2), and one each from Arizona, Florida, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Texas, and Ohio.

Defensive lineman Terrell Jackson is from Washington, DC.

While only four VMI players are from Pennsylvania, it should be noted that they include quarterback Seth Morgan and star wideout Jakob Herres. Another wide receiver from the Keystone State, sophomore Julio DaSilva, is on the two-deep as well.

Potential area code confusion: 

From the aforementioned story in The Richmond Times-Dispatch:

Keydets from the Richmond area, according to [running back Korey Bridy], will occasionally identify their place of origin by simply saying, “We’re from the four,” as in the 804, the area code for Virginia’s capital.

Charleston, SC is located in the 803 area code. Lexington, Virginia has an area code of 540.

Stats of interest for The Citadel, VMI, and the rest of the SoCon. A few notes:

  • I include sacks in passing yardage statistics rather than rushing, like the NFL (but unlike the official NCAA stats). Hence the “adjusted” tag.
  • There are 128 FCS teams. Five of them are “transitional” schools, but all of them are playing FCS schedules and thus are included in the overall national rankings here. The NCAA separates their stats from the rest of the subdivision for some bizarre reason, but I do not. For the record, the five schools in question are Dixie State, Merrimack, North Alabama, St. Thomas, and Tarleton State.
  • All of these statistics include games played inside and outside the division (in other words, FBS and D2 games are part of the mix). Given that teams have only played three or four games so far this season, this is definitely something to keep in mind.

First, offensive statistics:

Team Yds/Play Rank Adjusted Yds/Rush Rank Adjusted Yds/PA Rank
The Citadel      5.58 50      5.09 39      7.61 19
VMI      5.01 79      5.06 41      4.96 98
Chattanooga      4.54 99      4.68 55      4.36 115
ETSU      6.82 10      6.05 9      8.08 11
Furman      4.79 86      3.27 119      6.63 50
Mercer      6.82 11      6.03 11      8.47 9
Samford      5.94 32      4.18 77      6.94 33
WCU      5.38 60      5.53 23      5.28 86
Wofford      5.48 56      5.08 40      6.14 59

 

Team 3D conv rate Rank RZ TD% Rank TFL allowed/play Rank % Rush plays Rank
The Citadel 43.6% 33 66.7% 51           8.2% 54   80.4% 3
VMI 38.8% 55 78.6% 22           9.1% 69   47.1% 83
Chattanooga 32.6% 86 68.4% 40           7.9% 42   54.7% 40
ETSU 47.1% 15 54.5% 78           5.2% 5   61.8% 18
Furman 39.7% 50 30.0% T121           8.5% 60   53.4% 47
Mercer 51.4% 6 81.8% 15           6.9% 24   67.5% 8
Samford 46.2% 23 65.2% 52           9.0% 67   36.2% 119
WCU 38.8% 54 47.1% 96           6.4% 18   39.5% 107
Wofford 32.5% 87 50.0% T86           6.4% 17   63.1% 15

One oddity in the rankings is that The Citadel is 50th nationally in yards per play despite ranking higher in both of the component stats (yards per rush and yards per pass attempt). That is largely due to the Bulldogs’ 80.4% rush rate; only Davidson and Kennesaw State have run the ball more on a per-play basis.

To further explain: as a group, FCS teams have averaged 5.34 yards per play through September. That number includes 4.64 yards per rush and 6.03 yards per pass attempt, a differential of 1.39 yards. 

However, the overall run/pass play ratio for FCS outfits is almost exactly a 50-50 proposition (50.0015%, favoring pass plays ever so slightly). The Citadel gets “passed” (quite literally) in the yards per play category by teams that throw the ball more often — which, as can be seen, is almost every team in the subdivision.

South Carolina State ranks 49th nationally in yards per play (5.59), one spot ahead of The Citadel, despite ranking behind Charleston’s Bulldogs in both yards per rush and yards per pass attempt. That is because Buddy Pough’s squad has a much more balanced run/pass ratio (rushing on 46.5% of its plays from scrimmage).

There are four FCS teams currently averaging more than 7.5 yards per play. It will not surprise anyone to learn that they are North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Eastern Washington, and James Madison. 

South Dakota State leads the nation in adjusted yards per pass attempt (10.23), while NDSU currently is at the top of the adjusted yards per rush category (8.56).

The bottom five in yards per play: Grambling State (2.50, lowest in FCS), Bucknell, Lehigh, Mississippi Valley State, and LIU.

Looking at SoCon teams, it is clear that to date ETSU and Mercer have had the conference’s most efficient offenses, with good-to-excellent numbers across the board. The Buccaneers could stand some improvement in the red zone, but other than that there can be no complaints from the fans of those teams — not on offense, anyway.

Just for clarification, East Tennessee State ranks just ahead of Mercer in yards per play (6.824 to 6.823). The extra decimal place does not appear on the chart above.

I included a column for tackles for loss on a per-play basis, because I thought it was interesting. From The Citadel’s perspective, a tackle for loss on 8.2% of all offensive plays from scrimmage is not really acceptable. Negative plays are drive killers, particularly for offenses that do not produce a lot of big plays.

Defensive numbers:

Team Yds/Play Rank Adjusted Yds/Rush Rank Adjusted Yds/PA Rank
The Citadel      6.96 118      5.56 102      8.52 114
VMI      5.92 79      5.67 106      6.39 64
Chattanooga      4.89 32      4.07 27      5.53 31
ETSU      4.81 27      4.05 25      5.22 22
Furman      5.56 55      4.63 53      6.52 68
Mercer      4.38 14      3.46 12      5.23 23
Samford      5.36 43      5.01 74      5.68 37
WCU      7.02 120      5.72 108      8.45 113
Wofford      5.76 69      5.64 105      5.92 41

 

Team 3D conv rate Rank RZ TD rate Rank TFL/play Rank % Rush plays vs Rank
The Citadel 50.0% 120 55.6% 38      4.7% 125     52.6% 56
VMI 47.8% 112 64.3% 68      6.0% 112     65.9% 2
Chattanooga 33.3% 32 57.1% 41    10.9% 29     44.3% 107
ETSU 40.3% 76 53.3% 29      8.0% 76     35.0% 124
Furman 40.4% 77 72.7% 91      7.4% 92     50.8% 67
Mercer 40.0% 74 55.6% 36      7.0% 98     47.8% 85
Samford 43.6% 91 66.7% 76      6.5% 106     48.6% 80
WCU 45.1% 102 88.0% 122      8.2% 73     52.4% 59
Wofford 43.6% 93 50.0% 26      6.4% 107     55.9% 37

 

Chattanooga, East Tennessee State, and Mercer have the best defensive statistics in the conference through September. The SoCon as a whole has struggled on this side of the ball — take a look at those third down conversion against rates, yeesh. Getting off the field on third down has been a major problem for most of the league’s teams. 

I included the rushing play percentage category for defense, even though obviously that is opponent-driven for the most part. It is a bit curious that VMI has been rushed against (on a per-play basis) more than any FCS team except for Bucknell.  

These numbers for The Citadel will not shock any Bulldogs fan who has been watching the games. The sole highlight, I suppose, is that The Citadel’s defense has done a decent job in the Red Zone. Opponents have largely rushed and passed against the Bulldogs with impunity.

Princeton leads FCS in yards per play allowed, at 2.61 (albeit while only playing two games, against the less-than-stellar competition of Lehigh and Stetson). James Madison and North Dakota State rank second and third. Deion Sanders’ Jackson State squad is fourth, just ahead of Prairie View A&M.

The bottom five: LIU (allowing 8.42 yards per play, worst in the subdivision), Texas Southern, Southern Utah, Central Connecticut State, and Southeast Missouri State.

To be fair to LIU, it has played three games thus far, and all three have been against FBS opponents (FIU, West Virginia, and Miami of Ohio). The Sharks get a well-deserved break this weekend before resuming their season next Saturday against St. Francis (PA).

Some miscellaneous stats:

Team TO margin/gm Rank TOP Rank Penalty yds/gm Rank Net punting Rank
The Citadel -0.33 T76 31:17 51 40.00 26 40.93 14
VMI -0.50 T81 27:52 101 64.00 T94 38.50 31
Chattanooga 0.67 T34 32:34 26 50.00 T49 40.25 17
ETSU 1.25 T19 33:06 18 63.75 93 36.43 57
Furman 0.00 T57 31:27 45 48.75 42 34.27 83
Mercer -0.33 T76 31:18 50 31.33 9 26.17 123
Samford 0.25 T51 24:35 125 50.25 54 38.79 28
WCU -0.75 T90 30:59 56 53.25 T65 34.91 72
Wofford 0.00 T57 29:48 73 38.00 19 33.80 93

Apologies for the formatting of that table; I realize it is even clunkier than usual.

It is a little strange to see The Citadel not near or at the top in terms of time of possession, but even stranger that Wofford is averaging under 30 minutes TOP per contest.

A few FCS national leaders in each category:

  • Turnover margin: Campbell leads (2.67 per game), a possible benefit of having played Presbyterian. Others in the top five: UC Davis, James Madison, Northern Iowa, and Alcorn State. Brown and the aforementioned Blue Hose are the bottom two, with the Bears enduring a -3 TO margin/game through two contests.
  • Time of possession: Yale is dominating this stat, averaging 37:42 TOP, though the Elis have only played two games. Also in the top five: Central Connecticut State, Princeton, Kennesaw State, and Butler. On the other end of the spectrum, Grambling State is averaging just 22:44 TOP per game and thus ranks last.
  • Penalty yards per game: New Hampshire is averaging only 20.75 penalty yards per game, the cleanest number in the subdivision. Other teams avoiding yellow flags include Bucknell, Howard, Delaware, and Idaho State. Only one team is averaging more than 100 yards per game in penalties — Yale. As already mentioned, that school has played just two games thus far.
  • Net punting: Idaho State has a net punting average of 46.07, which leads the nation, ahead of Montana, Missouri State, Davidson, and Illinois State. You only get one guess as to which team is in last place, with a net punting average of just 9.0. Yep, Presbyterian. No wonder Kevin Kelley doesn’t want to punt. (The Blue Hose have only punted twice.)

We are just 48 hours from kickoff for The Military Classic of the South. The coveted Silver Shako will be at stake, and a sellout crowd celebrating Parents’ Weekend will be watching the action.

Among the spectators, by the way, will be a contingent of about 500 Keydets, including VMI’s band. The atmosphere should be outstanding; I’m hoping the game will be as well.

I can’t wait for Saturday.

College Football Week 5, 2021: Tuesday notes and observations

Brent Thompson’s Monday press conference (9/27)

The Citadel’s game notes for its matchup against VMI

VMI has been rewarded for its patience

– The weather forecast for Saturday afternoon in Charleston, per the National Weather Service: sunny, with a high of 81°.

– The early lines are out. The Citadel is favored over VMI by 1½ points; the over/under is 65½.

I have no idea why the Bulldogs are favored in this game. My own numbers, which are admittedly experimental in nature and not to be trusted, suggest that VMI should be favored by around 9 points. 

When the coveted Silver Shako is at stake, however, anything can happen. 

– Other SoCon lines:

  • Chattanooga is favored over Western Carolina by 21½ points (over/under of 57½)
  • East Tennessee State is favored over Wofford by 14½ points (over/under of 49½)
  • Mercer is favored over Samford by 7½ points (over/under of 68½)

Furman is off this week.

– Also of note from a local or semi-local perspective: South Carolina State is favored by 7½ points over Bethune-Cookman; Kennesaw State is a 2½-point favorite over Jacksonville State; Davidson is favored by 10 points at Stetson; North Carolina A&T is favored by 19½ points over Robert Morris; Richmond is a 12½-point favorite over Elon; and Campbell is a 3-point favorite at North Alabama.

Presbyterian and Charleston Southern are both idle this weekend.

Above, I mentioned my experimental power ratings for FCS teams. This is just a tryout and probably won’t come to anything, but I decided to compare my numbers to the spreads for all FCS vs. FCS contests and see how many outliers there were.

I basically came up with seven games (not including VMI-The Citadel) in which my ratings differed from the opening line by more than a touchdown. Here they are, with my system’s pick against the spread in bold:

  • Sacred Heart-Howard: the Pioneers are 4-point favorites at HU
  • Duquesne-Merrimack: the homestanding Warriors are favored by 3 points
  • Dayton-Morehead State: the Flyers are 2½-point road favorites
  • Brown-Bryant: the Bears are 1½-point road favorites
  • Delaware State-Wagner: the Seahawks are a 1½-point favorite at home
  • Dixie State-South Dakota State: the mighty Jackrabbits are 45-point favorites
  • Central Arkansas-Abilene Christian: ACU is a 1-point favorite at home

Yes, six of the picks are road teams. Feel free to giggle when all of the home teams cover this weekend.

Some FCS conference realignment news: Texas A&M-Commerce, which won the D2 football national title in 2017, announced today it is moving up to FCS and will be a member of the Southland Conference. For you old-timers, this is the school that until 1996 was called East Texas State. Its most notable football alums: Dwight White, Harvey Martin, and Wade Wilson.

Of course, conference realignment rumors (and actual moves) are all the rage right now, both at the FBS and FCS level.

Austin Peay is leaving the OVC for the A-Sun. An OVC school that does not play football, Belmont, is headed to the MVC — and yet another OVC member, Murray State, is widely rumored to be moving as well.

Texas A&M-Commerce probably won’t be the only Division II school to move up, either. There are a host of D2 programs all over the nation reportedly interested in the verdant pastures of Division I. In the southeastern part of the country, keep an eye on (among others) Valdosta State, West Georgia, West Florida, and Queens University of Charlotte.

West Florida, Valdosta State, and Texas A&M-Commerce are the last three national champions in football at the Division II level.

Queens is a small private school (less than 2,000 undergraduates) that does not sponsor football. It does have a dominant swimming program (both men’s and women’s), and its men’s hoops squad beat Howard last season and only lost to George Mason by one point.

Per Wikipedia, the Queens Sports Complex includes a statue of Rex (the school’s mascot), which is “the largest standing lion sculpture in the world.” That sounds D1 to me…

Also, while I haven’t heard anything yet about Anderson University moving up to D1, it did hire Bobby Lamb to start its football program — and has more students than Queens (which, like Anderson, is in the South Atlantic Conference). Anderson’s enrollment has more than doubled over the last 15 years.

Just something to think about.

Looking at the numbers, 2021 preseason: returning starters in the SoCon

Other preseason posts from July:

One of the major storylines for the upcoming football season is the large number of experienced gridders who are returning to college this fall. The “free year” that was the F20/S21 school year has led to a glut of so-called “superseniors”, players in their sixth years (or fifth-year players who haven’t redshirted).

As a result of the extra year being granted, Clemson has at least two players (linebacker James Skalski and punter Will Spiers) who could conceivably play in 70 games during their college careers. That is just a ludicrous number of games for a college football player, but we live in ludicrous times.

Illinois has 22 superseniors, most in the country (the Illini also have 18 “regular” seniors). In February, the AP reported that over 1,000 superseniors were on FBS rosters, a number that has probably declined since then, but still obviously significant.

Information on FCS programs is sketchier, but there was a recent report confirming that Southern Illinois has 16 superseniors, which has to be close to the most in the subdivision, if not the most. Between Illinois and SIU, there are a lot of veteran pigskin collegians in the Land of Lincoln.

Incidentally, one of Southern Illinois’ superseniors is former Western Carolina running back Donnavan Spencer, who transferred from Cullowhee to Carbondale for the fall 2021 campaign.

All of this is reflected in sizeable “returning starters” lists among a lot of teams throughout the sport, including both the FBS and FCS. As an example, here are some numbers from the ACC and SEC, per Phil Steele’s 2021 College Football Preview:

  • Wake Forest: 20 returning starters (but with tough injury news over the last week)
  • North Carolina State: 19
  • Miami: 19 (and only lost 9 out of 70 lettermen)
  • Syracuse: 19
  • Arkansas: 19
  • North Carolina: 18
  • LSU: 18 (hopefully some of them will play pass defense this season)
  • Florida State: 17 (joined by a bunch of D-1 transfers)
  • Boston College: 17
  • Georgia Tech: 17
  • Vanderbilt: 17 (possibly not a positive)
  • Mississippi: 17

The team in those two leagues with the fewest returning starters is Alabama, with 11. Of course, the Tide had six players from last season’s squad picked in the first round of the NFL draft, so a bit of turnover in Tuscaloosa was inevitable. I suspect Nick Saban isn’t too worried about replacing them.

The returning production totals are unprecedented at the FBS level.

The top 10 includes several very interesting teams, including Louisiana-Lafayette, Arizona State, Nevada, and UCLA. It is somewhat incredible that Coastal Carolina has a returning production rate of 89% and doesn’t even crack the top 15.

Some of the teams at the bottom of this ranking are national powers that reload every year. Alabama was already mentioned, but the same is true for Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Florida.

BYU and Northwestern also had outstanding seasons last year (and combined for three first-round draft picks). The story wasn’t the same for Duke and South Carolina, however.

Okay, now time to talk about the SoCon. Who in the league is coming back this fall? An easier question to answer would be: who isn’t?

SoCon returning starters, Fall 2021

The spreadsheet linked above has 12 categories. A quick explanation of each:

  • F20/S21 Games Played: total number of games played by a team during the 2020-21 school year, both in the fall (F20) and the spring (S21)
  • F20/S21 Participants: the number of players who suited up during 2020-21
  • F20/S21 Starters: the number of different starters during 2020-21
  • F20/S21 Returning Participants: the number of returnees who played during 2020-21
  • F20/S21 Returning Starters: the number of returning starters from 2020-21
  • F20/S21 Returning Starters 2+: the number of returnees from 2020-21 who started at least two games
  • Spring 2021: total number of games played by a team in the spring (all conference games, except for VMI’s playoff matchup)
  • Spring 2021 Participants: the number of players who took the field during the spring
  • Spring 2021 Starters: the number of different starters during the spring
  • Spring Returning Participants: the number of returnees who played in the spring
  • Spring Returning Starters: the number of returning starters from the spring
  • Spring Returning Starters 2+: the number of returnees who started at least two games during the spring

Most of that needs no explanation. The idea of including a category for multiple starts was inspired by Chattanooga’s game against Mercer, when the Mocs fielded what was essentially a “B” team. UTC had 19 players who started that game, but did not start in any of Chattanooga’s other three spring contests.

There are a few players who started one game in the spring, but also started at least one game in the fall. They are listed as having started multiple games for F20/S21, of course, but not for the spring.

The list of starters does not include special teams players. Some programs list specialists as starters, but they generally are not treated as such from a statistical point of view, and for the sake of consistency I am only listing offensive and defensive starters.

Returnee stats are based on each school’s online football roster as of July 26 (the league’s Media Day). 

Players on current rosters who did not start in F20/S21, but who did start games in 2019, are not included as returning starters. There are two players from The Citadel who fit this description; undoubtedly there are a few others in the conference.

I also did not count any incoming transfers with prior starting experience. That is simply another piece to a team’s roster puzzle.

There is no doubt that transfers will have a major impact on the fall 2021 season. For example, Western Carolina has 15 players on its roster who arrived from junior colleges or other four-year schools following the spring 2021 campaign (the Catamounts have 26 transfers in all).

Five of the nine SoCon schools did not play in the fall. Thus, their overall numbers are the same as their spring totals (and are noted as such on the spreadsheet).

As I’ve said before, when it comes to the veracity of the game summaries, I think the athletic media relations folks at the SoCon schools did quite well for the most part, especially when considering how difficult staffing must have been at times during the spring. There were a few miscues, and in terms of data input, the participation charts seemed to cause the most problems.

Did Mercer start a game with no offensive linemen? Uh, no. Was a backup quarterback a defensive starter for Chattanooga? Nope. In three different contests, did Furman take the field after the opening kickoff with only 10 players? It did not.

There was also a scattering of double-counted players, usually a result of misspellings or changes in jersey numbers. Hey, it happens.

Ultimately, I am fairly confident in the general accuracy of the numbers in the spreadsheet linked above, particularly the categories for starters. The totals for participants should also be largely correct, although I will say that it is harder to find (and correct) errors in online participation charts for participants than it is starters. That is because the players who tend to be occasionally omitted from the charts are special teams performers and backup offensive linemen — in other words, non-starters who do not accumulate standard statistics.

According to the SoCon’s fall prospectus, 553 of the 636 players who lettered in F20/S21 are playing this fall (86.9%). That tracks with my numbers, with 83.2% of all participants returning (573 of 689). I did find one player listed as a returnee in the prospectus who is not on his school’s online roster; it is possible there are one or two more such cases.

Samford had by far the most participants, with 95 (in seven contests). Of that group, however, 24 only appeared in one game during the spring. The number of multiple-game participants for SU is more in line with some of the other spring-only teams, such as Furman; the Paladins also played seven games, with 71 participants, 64 of whom played in at least two games.

Having said that, kudos to Samford for being able to maintain a roster that large this spring. That is a credit to its coaching and support staff.

Mercer, which played three games in the fall and eight in the spring, has the most returnees that started multiple games, with 37. There are 25 Bears who are returning after making at least two spring starts.

The Citadel has the most players returning who had 2+ starts in the spring, with 28. Wofford has the fewest (19), not a huge surprise given the Terriers only played in five games.

Chattanooga and East Tennessee State combine to return 122 out of 128 players who participated in the spring season. Those returnees include 75 players who started at least one spring game.

Conference teams average 30.44 returning starters from the spring. No squad has fewer than 25.

For the SoCon, I’m not really capable of fully replicating the formula Bill Connelly uses for his FBS returning production rates; I lack access to some of the necessary data. Therefore, I am just going to list some of the (very limited) spots throughout the conference in which teams will have to replace key performers from the spring. I realize that is more anecdotal in nature than the rest of this post.

  • Furman must replace three starters on its offensive line, including the versatile Reed Kroeber (41 career starts for the Paladins). FU also loses first-team all-SoCon free safety Darius Kearse.
  • Wofford has to replace its second-leading rusher from the spring (Ryan Lovelace), and players who accounted for 61% of the Terriers’ receiving production.
  • VMI loses three defensive stalwarts who were second-team all-conference selections; one of them, lineman Jordan Ward, will be a graduate transfer at Ball State this fall.
  • The Keydets will also miss Reece Udinski, who transferred to Maryland (as was announced before the spring campaign even began). However, Seth Morgan certainly filled in at QB with aplomb after Udinski suffered a season-ending injury.
  • Mercer must replace leading rusher Deondre Johnson, a second-team all-league pick.
  • Samford placekicker Mitchell Fineran, an all-SoCon performer who led the conference in scoring, graduated and transferred to Purdue. He is the only regular placekicker or punter in the conference from the spring not to return for the fall.
  • I mentioned earlier that Western Carolina running back Donnavan Spencer (a first-team all-conference choice) transferred to Southern Illinois. The Catamounts also lost another first-team all-league player, center Isaiah Helms, a sophomore who transferred to Appalachian State. That has to sting a bit in Cullowhee. 
  • WCU’s starting quarterback last spring, Ryan Glover, transferred to California (his third school; he started his collegiate career at Penn). Glover and VMI’s Udinski are the only league players to start multiple games at quarterback this spring who are not returning this fall.
  • Western Carolina defensive tackle Roman Johnson is listed on the Catamounts’ online roster, but also reportedly entered the transfer portal (for a second time) in mid-July. I am including him as a returning starter for now, but there is clearly a lot of uncertainty as to his status.
  • The Citadel must replace starting right tackle Thomas Crawford (the only spring starter for the Bulldogs who is not returning).
  • A few players who appeared in fall 2020 action but not in the spring eventually found their way to FBS-land. Chattanooga wide receiver Bryce Nunnelly, a two-time first team all-SoCon selection during his time with the Mocs, will play at Western Michigan this season. Mercer wideout Steven Peterson, who originally matriculated at Coastal Carolina before moving to Macon, is now at Georgia. Strong safety Sean-Thomas Faulkner of The Citadel will wear the mean green of North Texas this fall.

Odds and ends:

  • Of the 51 players on the media’s all-SoCon teams (first and second), 42 will return this fall. 
  • One of those returnees is ETSU linebacker Jared Folks, who will be an eighth-year collegian this season (the only one in D-1). Folks started his college career at Temple in 2014 — the same year in which Patrick Mahomes debuted for Texas Tech.
  • Robert Riddle, the former Mercer quarterback who did not appear in F20/S21, is now at Chattanooga. Riddle made nine starts for the Bears over two seasons, but his time in the program was ravaged by injuries.
  • Chris Oladokun, who started Samford’s spring opener at QB, transferred to South Dakota State. Oladokun began his college days at South Florida before moving to Birmingham, where he started eight games for SU in 2019. His brother Jordan will be a freshman defensive back at Samford this fall.

So, to sum up: every team has lots of players back, which means (almost) every team’s fans expects the upcoming season for their respective squads to be truly outstanding. College football games this year will all take place in Lake Wobegon, because everyone will be above average.

Looking at the numbers, 2021 preseason: close games

Here are links to other posts I’ve written this month as the 2021 fall campaign approaches:

I’ve often stated that marginal improvement in various statistical categories can make an outsized difference in a team’s success, and lead to winning more games. For example, in my post about havoc rates, I wrote:

…one play — a forced fumble, a big tackle for loss, an interception — could well be the difference between a win or a loss. After all, just think about how many close games The Citadel has played in the conference in recent years.

This is certainly true, but it occurred to me that I hadn’t actually researched just how many close games the Bulldogs have played over the past few seasons. It was time to change that oversight.

Thus, I created a spreadsheet (of course). This one includes all Southern Conference games played between 2011 and the 2021 spring campaign for every league team which played during the period. That is ten seasons of data.

I am defining close games by the more-or-less standard definition, matchups decided by eight or fewer points — in other words, one-score games. That obviously includes all overtime contests.

Close games in the SoCon, 2011-S2021

The chart includes three teams no longer in the conference (Appalachian State, Elon, and Georgia Southern) and all of the current league members, including two teams (ETSU and VMI) that rejoined the conference since the 2011 season.

As mentioned, only conference games are listed. I’ve also noted the total number of league games played each year.

Since 2011, 44.81% of all SoCon contests have been close games. The rate has been quite consistent over the years; the highest percentage of close games during that time was last season (55.17%), while the lowest was in 2014 (32.14%). If you combine those two campaigns, the average comes out to 43.86%, right near the mean — and the other years are all between 41%-50%.

A few random observations:

  • Not counting Appalachian State or Georgia Southern (both of which left the SoCon after the 2013 season), the team with the best record in one-score games has been Wofford, while the unluckiest team in that respect has been VMI. 
  • In its five seasons since rejoining the conference, East Tennessee State has played by far the highest percentage of close games (68.42%).
  • Conversely, Western Carolina has the lowest rate of close games (26.32%).

The Citadel has played 78 league games since 2011. In 39 of those contests — exactly half — the Bulldogs have been involved in a one-score game. 

In all SoCon matchups over the period, The Citadel has a record of 41-37, so the Bulldogs have a slightly better record in games that are not close (22-17) than in games that are (19-20).

What does it all mean? Does it mean anything at all?

Generally speaking, over time a team’s record in one-score games should be right around .500, and that is the case for The Citadel. When it comes to close contests, the program has not been a statistical outlier from a historical perspective (which might comes as a surprise in some quarters). 

One takeaway, then, might be that instead of hoping small advancements will lead to a better record in close games, the actual intended results should be for fewer close games, with the difference being several more decisive victories.

Regardless, odds are that at least three of the Bulldogs’ league matchups this season will go right down to the wire. As always, critical plays have to be made in those key moments.

The fans have to be ready, too…